Scientific Uncertainty Research Articles

Putting brakes on Expedition Cruise Tourism in Svalbard: exercising power at the expense of legitimacy?

ABSTRACT Ecosystems in the Arctic are affected by multiple stressors caused by climate and environmental changes, increased pollution and human activities. The changes are unprecedented, with considerable scientific uncertainties over their potential consequences. In such a situation the use of the precautionary principle can be justified in environmental management. The principle is still contested, and its implementation needs careful considerations to be experienced as legitimate. This article will use the new regulatory amendments in Svalbard as a case to examine what preconditions must be in place to maintain legitimacy in environmental policy making when the precautionary principle is being applied. Based on a compilation of ship positional data, we assess the spatio-temporal distribution of cruise ships in Svalbard from 2011 to 2022 and the potential impacts on selected species. We then discuss the legitimacy of the regulatory amendments and the application of the precautionary principle. Our results show significant growth in the amount, distribution, and mileage of expedition cruise vessels' length of travel. While a precautionary approach to management is wise in a situation in which more stressors than ever are threatening Arctic wildlife, a more transparent and inclusive regulatory process would have strengthened the legitimacy of regulations and reduced conflict.

Assessment of genetically modified cotton MON 88913 for renewal authorisation under Regulation (EC) No 1829/2003 (dossier GMFF-2023-21234).

Following the submission of dossier GMFF-2023-21234 under Regulation (EC) No 1829/2003 from Bayer CropScience LP, the Panel on genetically modified organisms of the European Food Safety Authority was asked to deliver a scientific risk assessment on the data submitted in the context of the renewal of authorisation application for the herbicide-tolerant genetically modified cotton MON 88913, for food and feed uses, excluding cultivation within the European Union. The data received in the context of this renewal application contained post-market environmental monitoring reports, an evaluation of the literature retrieved by a scoping review, a search for additional studies performed by or on behalf of the applicant and updated bioinformatics analyses. The GMO Panel assessed these data for possible new hazards, modified exposure or new scientific uncertainties identified during the authorisation period and not previously assessed in the context of the original application. Under the assumption that the DNA sequence of the event in cotton MON 88913 considered for renewal is identical to the sequence of the originally assessed event, the GMO Panel concludes that there is no evidence in renewal dossier GMFF-2023-21234 for new hazards, modified exposure or scientific uncertainties that would change the conclusions of the original risk assessment on cotton MON 88913.

Assessment of genetically modified soybean MON 87708 for renewal authorisation under Regulation (EC) No 1829/2003 (dossier GMFF-2023-21237).

Following the submission of dossier GMFF-2023-21237 under Regulation (EC) No 1829/2003 from Bayer CropScience LP, the Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms of the European Food Safety Authority was asked to deliver a scientific risk assessment on the data submitted in the context of the renewal of authorisation application for the herbicide tolerant genetically modified soybean MON 87708, for food and feed uses, excluding cultivation within the European Union. The data received in the context of this renewal application contained post-market environmental monitoring reports, an evaluation of the literature retrieved by a scoping review, a search for additional studies performed by or on behalf of the applicant and updated bioinformatics analyses. The GMO Panel assessed these data for possible new hazards, modified exposure or new scientific uncertainties identified during the authorisation period and not previously assessed in the context of the original application. Under the assumption that the DNA sequence of the event in soybean MON 87708 considered for renewal is identical to the sequence of the originally assessed event, the GMO Panel concludes that there is no evidence in renewal dossier GMFF-2023-21237 for new hazards, modified exposure or scientific uncertainties that would change the conclusions of the original risk assessment on soybean MON 87708.

Assessment of genetically modified oilseed rape MON 88302 for renewal authorisation under Regulation (EC) No 1829/2003 (dossier GMFF-2023-21220).

Following the submission of dossier GMFF-2023-21220 under Regulation (EC) No 1829/2003 from Bayer CropScience LP, the Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms of the European Food Safety Authority was asked to deliver a scientific risk assessment on the data submitted in the context of the renewal of authorisation application for the herbicide-tolerant genetically modified oilseed rape MON 88302, for food and feed uses, excluding cultivation within the European Union. The data received in the context of this renewal application contained post-market environmental monitoring reports, an evaluation of the literature retrieved by a scoping review, a search for additional studies performed by or on behalf of the applicant and updated bioinformatics analyses. The GMO Panel assessed these data for possible new hazards, modified exposure or new scientific uncertainties identified during the authorisation period and not previously assessed in the context of the original application. Under the assumption that the DNA sequence of the event in oilseed rape MON 88302 considered for renewal is identical to the sequence of the originally assessed event, the GMO Panel concludes that there is no evidence in renewal dossier GMFF-2023-21220 for new hazards, modified exposure or scientific uncertainties that would change the conclusions of the original risk assessment on oilseed rape MON 88302.

Assessment of genetically modified maize MON 87427 for renewal authorisation under Regulation (EC) No 1829/2003 (dossier GMFF-2023-21254).

Following the submission of dossier GMFF-2023-21254 under Regulation (EC) No 1829/2003 from Bayer CropScience LP, the Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms of the European Food Safety Authority was asked to deliver a scientific risk assessment on the data submitted in the context of the renewal of authorisation application for the of tissue-selective herbicide-tolerant genetically modified maize MON 87427, for food and feed uses, excluding cultivation within the European Union. The data received in the context of this renewal application contained post-market environmental monitoring reports, an evaluation of the literature retrieved by a scoping review, a search for additional studies performed by or on behalf of the applicant and updated bioinformatics analyses. The GMO Panel assessed these data for possible new hazards, modified exposure or new scientific uncertainties identified during the authorisation period and not previously assessed in the context of the original application. Under the assumption that the DNA sequence of the event in maize MON 87427 considered for renewal is identical to the sequence of the originally assessed event, the GMO Panel concludes that there is no evidence in renewal dossier GMFF-2023-21254 for new hazards, modified exposure or scientific uncertainties that would change the conclusions of the original risk assessment on maize MON 87427.

Annotating scientific uncertainty: A comprehensive model using linguistic patterns and comparison with existing approaches

Annotating scientific uncertainty: A comprehensive model using linguistic patterns and comparison with existing approaches

Delisting the Grizzly bear from the Endangered Species Act: shifting politics and political discourse in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

IntroductionAs the Endangered Species Act (ESA) marks its 50th anniversary, it remains one of the most influential wildlife conservation laws globally. Designed to protect endangered species and their habitats, the ESA sets recovery benchmarks, with the ultimate goal of delisting species once these criteria are met. However, delisting has become a politically charged issue in recent decades, offering a critical case study for the long-term efficacy of the ESA. Our manuscript examines this dynamic through the lens of a high-profile case: the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) in the Intermountain West region of the United States. We explore the complex process of species delisting, with research questions focusing on the political actors involved in grizzly bear delisting and their perspectives on the process.Materials and methodsTo address these questions, we analyzed 752 policy documents, news articles, and court rulings, extracting 2,832 quotes from key political stakeholders. Using a structural topic model and inductive thematic coding.ResultsWe identified five key threads of political discourse surrounding grizzly bear delisting: scientific uncertainty, the role of regulated hunting, human-wildlife conflict, increased state-level management, and the surpassing of recovery goals. Our analysis also highlights which political actors most commonly advance these arguments and how their roles have shifted over time. Notably, elected legislators, legal advocates, and non-governmental organizations are increasingly influential in wildlife policy, overshadowing the traditional authority of executive branch officials and agency scientists.Conclusions and recommendationsThese findings underscore the importance of understanding political discourse and actor dynamics in addressing ESA policy disputes, offering insights into how the law may continue to evolve and how future conflicts might be resolved.

Utilizing of Q methodology to delineate STEM student perspectives regarding science communication about scientific uncertainty in socioscientific issues

ABSTRACT Evolving socioscientific issues involve uncertainty about scientific and societal issues, leading to complex science communication challenges. STEM students must be prepared to engage in collaborative conversations with diverse people about these issues. In order to better prepare STEM students for these science communication challenges, it is important to first understand the various perspectives STEM students hold regarding science communication about uncertain socioscientific issues. In this study, we utilized Q methodology to delineate STEM student perspectives based on their relative agreement with n = 37 different statements about science communication generated from interviews with n = 25 scientists and STEM students about their science communication approaches. Factor analysis of n = 26 STEM students’ levels of agreement with these statements revealed three distinct factors representing diverse perspectives about science communication. Some students valued nuance and connecting with audiences’ emotions, other students valued information-seeking for themselves and their audiences, and other students were more disengaged from valuing science communication at all. These factors reveal important insights for science communication training of STEM students as well as for science education of STEM students about ways to consider and handle scientific uncertainty, such as tailored science communication trainings toward a student’s current perspective about science communication.

Climate Change Reporting and Green Energy Misdirection: U.S. Media Coverage of the 2021 Texas Blackouts during Winter Storm Uri

Abstract The continental United States experienced a major cold snap in early 2021. The cold wave resulted in widespread, and deadly, power blackouts in the state of Texas. In this mixed-methods study, I examined the volume of English-language media coverage using a purposive sample from U.S. print and broadcast news sources. The results show that among mainstream media outlets those that are classified as “elite, climate specialist” ones were significantly more likely to give issue attention to climate change during the power crisis. U.S. media reporting on scientific uncertainty has become more nuanced overall. However, conservative outlets Fox News and the Wall Street Journal included a climate contrarian tactic of green energy misdirection through the use of climate alarm political culture and unreliable wind and solar media frames. Results show that nearly half of the mainstream media coverage fact-checks echoed wind energy misinformation through playing video clips or otherwise referencing these contrarian claims. Implications for mainstream media fact-checking of climate science and renewable energy contrarian claims are discussed.

The concept of prevention of illegal migration: theoretical and legal analysis

The paper presents a theoretical and legal analysis of the definition of prevention of illegal migration. The author of the paper notes that at present there is both scientific and legal uncertainty in understanding the term. The relevance of the topic is confirmed by the fact that at the current stage of development of administrative law there are grounds for distinguishing migration law as an independent branch of law. In turn, prevention of illegal migration can be considered as an institute of the said branch. The study of various monographic works showed that scientists focus on the prevention of illegal migration in the context of criminology. At the same time, there are no relevant and comprehensive works devoted to the meaning of the term. The lack of a unified interpretation of prevention of illegal migration negatively affects the planning and implementation of comprehensive measures in the migration sphere. Based on the results of the study, the author makes a number of conclusions. In particular, it was established that the problem of defining prevention of illegal migration is determined by a number of circumstances: a) the lack of a legal understanding of this term; b) the existence of a dispute about the allocation of the designated term as an institute of migration law; c) different approaches of the legislator, law enforcement officer, and the scientific community to the definition of terms related to prevention activities; d) the absence of systematized migration legislation. Generalization of legislative approaches to the prevention of offenses and crimes, finding the semantic meaning, as well as accumulation of some approaches to the definition of the term under study allowed to develop its author's understanding. Thus, prevention of illegal migration is a set of measures of social, legal, organizational, informational and other nature aimed at identifying and eliminating the causes and conditions that contribute to illegal movement across the border and the presence of migrants on the territory of the state.

Understanding and counteracting the denial of insect biodiversity loss.

Biodiversity loss is occurring globally with negative impacts on ecosystem function and human well-being. There is a scientific consensus that diverse environmental and anthropogenic factors are altering different components of insect biodiversity, with changes occurring at all levels of biological organisation. Here, we describe how uncertainty around specific trends and the semantics of 'decline' in relation to insect biodiversity have been leveraged by denialist campaigns to manufacture doubt around the insect biodiversity crisis. Disinformation is one of the biggest threats to social cohesion and environmental integrity globally. We argue that scientists, academic institutions, policymakers, and journalists must combat denialism by relying on robust research, supporting efforts to communicate scientific uncertainty more effectively, and build consensus on the global impacts of insect biodiversity loss.

Does scientific uncertainty alter public perception of HIV-cure science? A message experiment with U.S. adults

ABSTRACT Science communicators often grapple with conveying tentative or incremental research findings to the public, particularly regarding progress made toward treating or curing illnesses and diseases. A growing cohort of studies has utilized message experiments to examine how different approaches for communicating scientific uncertainty impact public perceptions. Extending this program, we examine the effects of communicating different levels of uncertainty on public perceptions of advancements in HIV/AIDS research. Participants (N = 306) were randomly assigned to view one of three messages in a single-factor experiment with low-, medium-, or high-uncertainty tweets. Outcome measures included perceived uncertainty and support for HIV research. Tweets with a greater emphasis on uncertainty decreased individuals’ support not just for the research reported but for research in this critical field as a whole; the way individuals interpret the level of uncertainty presented in the tweets played a crucial role in shaping their attitudes towards supporting HIV/AIDS research. Perceived uncertainty mediated this relationship. As the messaging became more uncertain, participants were more likely to perceive higher levels of uncertainty overall. Participants who perceived greater levels of uncertainty were inclined to express a reduced level of support for HIV/AIDS research. The source of the uncertainty influenced message credibility.

Role Adoption and Decision Making: How Dutch Journalists Dealt with Misinformation during the Covid-19 Pandemic

ABSTRACT Amidst the Covid-19 pandemic, misinformation complicated communication about the health crisis and posed unique challenges and a context of uncertainty for journalists. Understanding the adopted roles and decision-making process of professional journalists dealing with pandemic-related misinformation helps advancing the knowledge about journalism practice during complex scenarios characterized by uncertainty and prevailing misinformation. Using reconstructive interviews with 15 Dutch journalists, we have observed that the facilitator and civic service roles were frequently adopted, especially during the first months, in which the lack of scientific consensus and uncertainty heightened public demand for information. In hindsight, journalists expressed self-criticism, wishing they had more rigorously adopted a watchdog role to scrutinize government actions. Journalists recognize the risk of paying attention to misinformation, as it could spread further amongst their audiences, but believe it is their duty to address it when it is widespread or has the potential to significantly impact society. The selection of which misinformation cases to tackle is based on newsworthiness, but also on arguments such as reducing the spread of conspiracy theories. The study provides new insights into journalistic roles and practices during public health crises and offers lessons for future journalism, especially in reflecting on the rally-around-the-flag phenomenon.

La institucionalización del cambio climático en Colombia: límites de los modelos climáticos y las reparaciones internacionales

This article evaluates how institutions in Colombia address the climate crisis. Based on documentary analysis, field notes, and theoretical review, it examines the validity of official climate change data, the interpretations and expectations associated with them, and the implications of their implementation for policy actions. This study finds that the use of climate models and international remediation initiatives overlooks several scientific uncertainties. There is an uncritical use of institutional data, such as erroneous climate projections in climate adaptation decision-making, and the obstacles to economically quantifying the environmental debt of the countries of the Global North are ignored. These shortcomings result from bureaucratic structures that limit the range of understanding of the climate crisis and a lack of critical thinking in the face of the measures proposed. Given the need to suggest innovative methodological strategies to evaluate the current climate initiatives, this research highlights the intellectual productivity of combining the analysis of uncertainties in climate science with a critique of institutional bureaucracy.

Navigating scientific modelling and uncertainty: Insights from hazard, risk, and impact scientists in disaster risk management (DRM)

Navigating scientific modelling and uncertainty: Insights from hazard, risk, and impact scientists in disaster risk management (DRM)

Corporate Responsibility and Deep Seabed Mining: The Limits of Due Diligence

AbstractThe International Seabed Authority is under pressure from some states and companies to adopt the regulations that would allow deep seabed mining (DSM) to commence. While presented by its supporters as necessary to procure the minerals and metals needed for energy transition, DSM presents serious risks for the marine environments and human rights whose extent is still insufficiently understood. This article focuses on whether, should DSM be allowed in the short term, the current regulatory regime would suffice to ensure that the corporations leading this activity carry out effective assessment, prevention and mitigation of environmental impacts. In order to answer this question, it explores contractor obligations as they emerge from the current version of the ‘Mining Code’. In light of persisting scientific uncertainty and the high-risk profile of DSM activities, this article contends that the current version of the regulations does not devise sufficiently stringent due diligence obligations.

Borrowing Regulatory Capacity in Middle-Income Countries during Public Health Crises: Brazil, Regulatory Reliance, and the Politics of COVD-19 Vaccine Regulation

Borrowing Regulatory Capacity in Middle-Income Countries during Public Health Crises: Brazil, Regulatory Reliance, and the Politics of COVD-19 Vaccine Regulation

Covering Climate Change: How Three American Agricultural Magazines Covered Climate Change Over 20 Years

Climate change will have an increasing impact on agriculture through both on-farm weather events and climate-related initiatives. However, many farmers, while perceiving the climate as changing, do not believe in climate change’s anthropogenic (i.e., human-caused) nature which could prevent farmer buy-in for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Because agricultural magazines have been established as a widely utilized source of information for farmers and media coverage has been shown to relate to perceptions through the agenda setting process, this study investigated the nature of the coverage of climate change articles from three agricultural magazines from 2000-2020 (N = 271). Through a quantitative content analysis, we determined the articles’ frames, sources, proposed economic impact of climate change, recommended action or proposed solution, determined cause of climate change, and logic (convinced or skeptical). This analysis revealed the dominant frame of the articles were scientific certainty, followed by political, conflict, and scientific uncertainty. The most frequently used sources were university scientists/Extension, followed by government officials and government research organizations. Articles were most likely to not mention the cause or economic impact of climate change. Articles tended to mention carbon sequestration more than other potential behaviors. The articles mostly portrayed a convinced logic about climate change. This study serves as a cultural artifact of the nature of climate change coverage in agricultural magazines and contributes to the burgeoning research efforts to best communicate this contentious topic to agriculturalists and encourage adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices.

The strategic and governance implications of solar radiation modification: perspectives from delegates of international climate negotiations

Abstract The lack of progress in addressing climate change has led to increased interest in solar radiation modification (SRM)—a collection of large-scale interventions that cool the planet by managing the amount of solar radiation that reaches the earth. SRM complicates climate change governance because, in addition to advancing collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, governance needs to restrain unilateral SRM action while balancing diverging actor interests, ethical risks and scientific uncertainty. We survey international climate policy experts for their assessments of the potential for effective global governance of SRM and the likelihood of possible international responses to unilateral SRM scenarios. Experts are pessimistic about the global community achieving effective SRM governance, and they believe unilateral SRM action will trigger international responses and conflicts. Experts believe softer responses are most likely (e.g. diplomatic sanctions) but the potential for stronger responses, including military action, are non-trivial. Relative to the Global North, experts from the Global South are relatively more supportive of SRM, including the development of SRM, the inclusion of SRM in international negotiations, and the deployment of SRM in a climate emergency.

Aging through the lens of mitochondrial DNA mutations and inheritance paradoxes.

Mitochondrial DNA encodes essential components of the respiratory chain complexes, serving as the foundation of mitochondrial respiratory function. Mutations in mtDNA primarily impair energy metabolism, exerting far-reaching effects on cellular physiology, particularly in the context of aging. The intrinsic vulnerability of mtDNA is increasingly recognized as a key driver in the initiation of aging and the progression of its related diseases. In the field of aging research, it is critical to unravel the intricate mechanisms underpinning mtDNA mutations in living organisms and to elucidate the pathological consequences they trigger. Interestingly, certain effects, such as oxidative stress and apoptosis, may not universally accelerate aging as traditionally perceived. These phenomena demand deeper investigation and a more nuanced reinterpretation of current findings to address persistent scientific uncertainties. By synthesizing recent insights, this review seeks to clarify how pathogenic mtDNA mutations drive cellular senescence and systemic health deterioration, while also exploring the complex dynamics of mtDNA inheritance that may propagate these mutations. Such a comprehensive understanding could ultimately inform the development of innovative therapeutic strategies to counteract mitochondrial dysfunctions associated with aging.