Safe Operating Space Research Articles

Deep learning for predicting rate-induced tipping

AbstractNonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing values can exhibit catastrophic transitions between distinct states. The phenomenon of critical slowing down can help anticipate such transitions if caused by a bifurcation and if the change in forcing is slow compared with the system’s internal timescale. However, in many real-world situations, these assumptions are not met and transitions can be triggered because the forcing exceeds a critical rate. For instance, the rapid pace of anthropogenic climate change compared with the internal timescales of key Earth system components, like polar ice sheets or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, poses significant risk of rate-induced tipping. Moreover, random perturbations may cause some trajectories to cross an unstable boundary whereas others do not—even under the same forcing. Critical-slowing-down-based indicators generally cannot distinguish these cases of noise-induced tipping from no tipping. This severely limits our ability to assess the tipping risks and to predict individual trajectories. To address this, we make the first attempt to develop a deep learning framework predicting the transition probabilities of dynamical systems ahead of rate-induced transitions. Our method issues early warnings, as demonstrated on three prototypical systems for rate-induced tipping subjected to time-varying equilibrium drift and noise perturbations. Exploiting explainable artificial intelligence methods, our framework captures the fingerprints for the early detection of rate-induced tipping, even with long lead times. Our findings demonstrate the predictability of rate-induced and noise-induced tipping, advancing our ability to determine safe operating spaces for a broader class of dynamical systems than possible so far.

Earth: An Oxidative Planet with Limited Atom Resources and Rich Chemistry.

Humanity faces an unprecedented survival challenge: climate change, driven by the depletion of natural resources, excessive waste generation, and deforestation. Six out of nine planetary boundaries have been exceeded, signaling that Earth is far from a safe operating space for humanity. In this Viewpoint Article we explore three critical "atomic-molecular" challenges: Earth's limited atomic resources, its oxidative nature, and very rich chemistry. Addressing these requires a transformation in how we produce and consume, emphasizing sustainable practices aligned with the United Nations' 17 goals. The advancement of science and technology has extended human life expectancy and improved quality of life. However, to ensure a sustainable future, we must move towards less oxidative chemical processes, incorporate CH4-CO2 redox chemistry into the circular economy, and transition from a linear, fossil fuel-dependent economy to a circular bioeconomy. Reforestation and the recovery of degraded lands are essential, alongside the shift towards green and sustainable chemistry. Earth's dynamic chemistry is governed by the principles of thermodynamics and kinetics, but science alone is insufficient. Achieving global sustainability requires coordinated economic, political, and social decisions that recognize Earth's limited resources and oxidative nature. Together, these efforts will position humanity to meet the challenges of climate change and secure a sustainable future.

A Planetary Boundary for Mineral, Metal, and Fossil Resource Extraction Rates: How Much Primary Materials Can a Circular Economy Extract?

Resource consumption is expected to further increase in the next decades. A circular economy could decrease the environmental impact of this resource consumption by minimizing the primary raw materials consumption and minimizing emissions that render materials inaccessible for further use. However, such a circular economy will still have primary raw material inflows, due to population growth, stock expansion, energy transition, and inevitable dissipation. The potential magnitude of such primary raw material inflows in a circular economy remains unclear. To address this uncertainty, the planetary boundary framework, which defines absolute limits on resource and emission flows, could be utilized. Although this framework incorporates aspects of biomass, water, and land use, mineral, metal, and fossil resources are not included. This study provides a principle for a planetary boundary for these three resources, based on the net accessibility rate and an allocated share of the accessible resource stock in the ecosphere. Inter- and intragenerational equality are crucial for determining this allocated share and for quantifying a sustainable rate of resource extraction in (an economy transitioning toward) a circular economy. Next steps to operationalize this principle provide further guidance to determine the safe operating space for mineral, metal, and fossil resource extraction.

The Potential of Hydrogeodesy to Address Water‐Related and Sustainability Challenges

AbstractIncreasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world's water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth's solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools that are complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water‐related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta‐analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of satellite‐based hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential of hydrogeodesy. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling, with a considerably smaller portion related to understanding hydrological processes, water management, and sustainability sciences. The meta‐analysis also shows that while lakes, groundwater and glaciers are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. In turn, the expert elicitation envisages the potential of hydrogeodesy to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advance knowledge as guidance toward a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining hydrogeodetic technologies simultaneously, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. Finally, we call for a coordinated way forward to include hydrogeodesy in tertiary education and broaden its application to water‐related and sustainability sciences in order to exploit its full potential.

Boundary Conditions for Organizations in the Anthropocene: A Review of the Planetary Boundaries Framework 10 Years On

AbstractWe systematically review business research concerning the planetary boundaries framework: A natural science framework that identifies nine Earth system boundaries that govern the safe operating space for humanity. Ten years after the introduction of the planetary boundaries in business studies, we pose two critical questions: How has the planetary boundaries concept been integrated into business studies and how has research on each of the nine boundaries advanced? Our review demonstrates growing scholarly interest in both questions. However, the topic remains niche with critical gaps, with most studies published in sustainability‐focused journals and only occasionally in mainstream journals. Theoretical development remains fragmented and of greater concern, a systems perspective is lacking in empirical studies: Most articles focus solely on one issue – climate change – and there is almost no cross‐analysis between boundaries. We contrast this with evidence that the planetary pressures of the Anthropocene are approaching dangerous thresholds and make the provocative assertion that planetary boundaries are not simply the foundation for specialized research on corporate sustainability but rather are the necessary boundary conditions for all business studies in the Anthropocene. We call for a transformation in how business scholars theorize, measure and engage.

A safe operating space for the major rivers in the Bangladesh Delta

Abstract The contributions of water to all Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are critical to achieving SDGs in the context of climate change. This poses a major challenge as nearly 40% of the global population lives under water scarcity, including areas such as Bangladesh, which is one of the largest, most populous and climate-vulnerable deltas (Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna: GBM) in the world. Here, we aim (first attempt) to analyse the historical dynamics (spatial and temporal) of river flows in 10 major rivers and provide policy implications using a safe operating space (SOS) concept for the Bangladesh delta. In general, the space just before the unsustainable state is defined as an SOS, within which humanity can safely thrive and beyond which is dangerous to humanity. Time series analysis highlights that all seasonal river flow shows a decreasing trend in the last three decades except in the winter season. The hydrological alteration using range of variability approach confirms that the majority of the river flow has been altered high to severely including three major rivers (Ganges, Jamuna, and Old Brahmaputra) in the Bangladesh delta. Our findings show that four out of ten rivers (Ganges (dry season), Gorai, Halda and Old Brahmaputra) exceeded the SOS, with the rest of the six rivers given cautious status considering the hydrological alteration (moderate to severe) in the Bangladesh delta. Our assessment provides scientific evidence to inform science and policy related to transboundary water disputes and achieving SDGs in Bangladesh and South Asia.

Ecological threshold effect mediates the long-term synergistic management of mega-city runoff nutrients in large-scale hybrid constructed wetlands

Constructed wetlands (CWs), as nature-based solutions for pollutant control, have been widely applied globally. The functionality of CW ecosystems begins to degrade when certain ecological thresholds are exceeded, where the ecosystem’s response and functions stay within a 'safe ecological limit'. However, the sustainability of these functions and their ecological thresholds have not yet been quantitatively assessed. This gap limits our understanding of the sustainability of CWs and the “safe operating space” for environmental management. Here, we evaluate whether and how the nitrogen and phosphorus removal functions in large-scale hybrid CWs (HCWs) of a mega-city change over time, as well as how they respond to changes in pollutant loads, stoichiometric characteristics, hydrology, and environmental conditions. Though it has been running stably for 6 years, the large HCWs achieved average total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) removal efficiencies of 81.0 % and 55.8 % from 2017 to 2020, respectively, with widespread synergistic relationships. This indicates that CWs have a long-term effect of removing nitrogen and phosphorus pollutants for over 10 years. A decrease in the stoichiometric characteristic TN:TP from inflow to outflow was a signal for preferential nitrogen removal (35 vs. 6.8, mass based). Importantly, the TN and TP removal efficiencies and their synergistic relationship change over operation time, with threshold points occurring at 378 days, 259 days, 1040 days, and 647 days, respectively. TN and TP removal efficiencies and their synergistic relationship were controlled by the thresholds of nitrogen (9.6–12.1 mg/L) and phosphorus (0.6–0.8 mg/L) loads, TN:TP (7.59), water levels (25.5–25.6 m), water replenishment (0.14 m), dissolved oxygen (5.8–9.0 mg/L), temperature (9.3–13.9 °C), and pH (8.8–10.1) levels. The thresholds of cross-attribute driving factors significantly affect the sustainability of nutrient removal functions. Our findings provide new insights into the threshold effects of pollutant loads and their stoichiometric characteristics, hydrology, and environmental conditions on the water purification functions of CWs. This offers critical support for defining the safe operating space in the sustainable management of CWs in mega-cities.

Can a new power system help maintain planetary boundaries within a safe operating space?

To meet China's ambitious carbon neutrality target by 2060, the development of a new power system focusing on renewable energy sources such as wind and solar is crucial. This study integrates Planetary Boundaries (PBs) with a life cycle assessment to explore the sustainability impacts of this transformative energy approach both nationally and regionally. Utilizing a GIS-MCDA (Geographic Information System-Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis) model, the analysis covers the period from 2025 to 2060, examining the seven major grid regions in China. Our findings reveal that under current energy production systems, no region can meet its basic energy needs without exceeding petabytes if existing energy production systems are maintained, thereby risking severe PBs transgressions. Simulations indicate that the adoption of the new power system could significantly mitigate these risks. Quantitative results show that, by 2050, the potential reduction in PB pressures could reach up to 30 % at the national level and vary significantly across regions, depending on their specific energy transition strategies. These insights provide a vital scientific basis for future policy-making and optimization of power systems to safeguard environmental thresholds and promote sustainable development in China.

Expanding the focus of the One Health concept: links between the Earth-system processes of the planetary boundaries framework and antibiotic resistance.

The scientific community warns that our impact on planet Earth is so acute that we are crossing several of the planetary boundaries that demarcate the safe operating space for humankind. Besides, there is mounting evidence of serious effects on people's health derived from the ongoing environmental degradation. Regarding human health, the spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria is one of the most critical public health issues worldwide. Relevantly, antibiotic resistance has been claimed to be the quintessential One Health issue. The One Health concept links human, animal, and environmental health, but it is frequently only focused on the risk of zoonotic pathogens to public health or, to a lesser extent, the impact of contaminants on human health, i.e.,adverse effects on human health coming from the other two One Health "compartments". It is recurrently claimed that antibiotic resistance must be approached from a One Health perspective, but such statement often only refers to the connection between the use of antibiotics in veterinary practice and the antibiotic resistance crisis, or theimpact of contaminants (antibiotics, heavy metals, disinfectants, etc.) on antibiotic resistance. Nonetheless, the nine Earth-system processes considered in the planetary boundaries framework can be directly or indirectly linked to antibiotic resistance. Here, some of the main links between those processes and the dissemination of antibiotic resistance are described. The ultimate goal is to expand the focus of the One Health concept by pointing out the links between critical Earth-system processes and the One Health quintessential issue, i.e.,antibiotic resistance.

Detergenschemie beeinflusst die Überschreitung planetarer Grenzen einschließlich antimikrobieller Resistenz und Arzneimittelentwicklung

AbstractDie Chemie der Detergenzien ermöglicht alltägliche Anwendungen. Gleichzeitig gefährdet sie sichere Handlungsräume, welche die Menschheit für ihren Fortbestand braucht. Ziel dieses Übersichtsartikels ist es, die Entwicklung eines ganzheitlichen Denkansatzes im chemischen Design von Detergenzien zu unterstützen. Mit Hilfe vom Konzept der planetaren Grenzen identifizieren wir Fortschritte und Wissenslücken im Zusammenhang mit der Chemie der Detergenzien und fünf planetaren Grenzen, welche derzeit überschritten werden, einschließlich Klima, Süßwasser, Landsystem, neue chemische Entitäten und Integrität der Biosphäre. Unsere Studie offenbart den Status von drei kritischen Herausforderungen, die in den kommenden Jahren angegangen werden müssen, darunter (i) die Umsetzung einer ganzheitlichen, klimafreundlichen Detergensindustrie; (ii) die Angleichung von materialistischen und sozialen Aspekten bei der Schaffung technischer Lösungen mittels nachhaltiger Chemie; (iii) die Entwicklung von Detergenzien, die einer Anwendung dienen, aber die Biosphäre in ihrer Rolle als neue chemische Entitäten nicht schaden. Medizinrelevante Fallstudien zeigen, dass selbst das raffinierteste Detergensdesign eine Medikamentenentwicklung nicht ausreichend beschleunigen kann, um zeitgleich die Antibiotikaresistenzentwicklung, welche Detergenzien in ihrer Rolle als neue chemische Entitäten fördern, zu überwinden. Sichere Handlungsräume, welche die Menschheit für ihren Fortbestehen braucht, können gesichert werden, sofern zukünftige Bemühungen über die Etablierung von nachhaltiger Chemie, Ressourceneffizienz und Netto‐Null‐Emissionsziele hinaus gehen.

Detergent Chemistry Modulates the Transgression of Planetary Boundaries including Antimicrobial Resistance and Drug Discovery.

Detergent chemistry enables applications in the world today while harming safe operating spaces that humanity needs for survival. Aim of this review is to support a holistic thought process in the design of detergent chemistry. We harness the planetary boundary concept as a framework for literature survey to identify progresses and knowledge gaps in context with detergent chemistry and five planetary boundaries that are currently transgressed, i.e., climate, freshwater, land system, novel entities, biosphere integrity. Our survey unveils the status of three critical challenges to be addressed in the years to come, including (i) the implementation of a holistically, climate-friendly detergent industry; (ii) the alignment of materialistic and social aspects in creating technical solutions by means of sustainable chemistry; (iii) the development of detergents that serve the purpose of applications but do not harm the biosphere in their role as novel entities. Specifically, medically relevant case reports revealed that even the most sophisticated detergent design cannot sufficiently accelerate drug discovery to outperform the antibiotic resistance development that detergents simultaneously promote as novel entities. Safe operating spaces that humanity needs for its survival may be secured by directing future efforts beyond sustainable chemistry, resource efficiency, and net zero emission targets.

Enabling comprehensive assessment of marine eutrophication impacts and their evaluation against regional safe operating space

PurposeNitrogen emissions from human activities are contributing to elevated levels of eutrophication in coastal ecosystems. Mechanisms involved in marine eutrophication show strong geographical variation. Existing life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) and absolute environmental sustainability assessment (AESA) methods for marine eutrophication do not adequately represent this variability, do not have a full global coverage, and suffer from other limitations, such as poor estimation of coastal residence times. This study aims to advance LCIA and AESA for marine eutrophication.MethodsWe aligned and combined recent advancements in marine eutrophication LCIA and AESA methods into one method. By re-running models underlying the combined methods and incorporating additional data sources, we included marine regions missing in previous methods and improved fate modeling, with the inclusion of denitrification and plant uptake in the air emission-terrestrial deposition pathway. To demonstrate and validate our method, we applied it in a case study.ResultsThe developed method allows the assessment of marine eutrophication impacts from emissions to soil, freshwater, and air at high resolution (0.083° and 2° × 2.5° for inland and air emissions, respectively) and spatial coverage (all ice-free global continents). In the case study, we demonstrate the added value of our method by showing that the now quantified spatial variability within spatial units, e.g., river basins, can be large and have a strong influence on the modeled marine eutrophication from the case study. Compared to existing methods, our method identifies larger occupations of safe operating space for marine eutrophication, mainly due to the high resolution of the coastal compartment, reflecting a more realistic areal extent of marine eutrophication impacts.ConclusionsAlthough limited by factors such as simulations based on a single reference year for modeling inland and air fate, our method is readily applicable to assess the marine eutrophication impact of nitrogen emitted to any environmental compartment and relate it to the safe operating space. With substantial advancement of existing approaches, our method improves the basis for decision-making for managing nitrogen and reducing emissions to levels within the safe operating space.

Climate change critically affects the status of the land-system change planetary boundary

The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity. To date, these boundaries have mostly been investigated separately, and it is unclear whether breaching one boundary can lead to the transgression of another. By employing a dynamic global vegetation model, we systematically simulate the strength and direction of the effects of different transgression levels of the climate change boundary (using climate output from ten phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models for CO2 levels ranging from 350 ppm to 1000 ppm). We focus on climate change-induced shifts of Earth’s major forest biomes, the control variable for the land-system change boundary, both by the end of this century and, to account for the long-term legacy effect, by the end of the millennium. Our simulations show that while staying within the 350 ppm climate change boundary co-stabilizes the land-system change boundary, breaching it (>450 ppm) leads to critical transgression of the latter, with greater severity the higher the ppm level rises and the more time passes. Specifically, this involves a poleward treeline shift, boreal forest dieback (nearly completely within its current area under extreme climate scenarios), competitive expansion of temperate forest into today’s boreal zone, and a slight tropical forest extension. These interacting changes also affect other planetary boundaries (freshwater change and biosphere integrity) and provide feedback to the climate change boundary itself. Our quantitative process-based study highlights the need for interactions to be studied for a systemic operationalization of the planetary boundaries framework.

Exploring the instability in the food security due to nitrogen fertilizer regulatory policy

AbstractThe nitrogen regulatory policy (NRP) solution is introduced as a mitigation measure against environmental nitrogen losses and keeps food production in the Safe Operating Space of the Nitrogen Planetary Boundary. Meanwhile, scientific research shows that steps taken to reduce environmental harm can increase the unpredictability of calorie production from crops. This study sought to investigate the impact of NRP solutions on the level of risk of accessibility to calorie sources from domestic production, the variations in calorie sources by livestock and non‐livestock diet components, and the responses of different dietary preferences, namely, poor, medium, and rich livestock protein diets, against NRP solutions in the Zayandeh‐Rud River basin, Iran. We developed the aggregate household food security index (AHFSI) and combined it with outputs of crop simulation model to examine how changes in dietary energy supplies under three NRP scenarios—low, moderate, and high nitrogen fertilizer application—affect the stability of three regional dietary preferences. The comparison of NRP scenarios movements realized that increases (or decreases) in nitrogen fertilizer rates contradicted the stability in AHFSI. Additionally, a one‐unit change in the average calories from non‐livestock sources, such as wheat and potatoes, results in greater fluctuations in the standard deviations of produced calories compared to changes in meat and dairy production. We proposed that in order to prevent adverse effects of NRP solutions on food security, mitigation strategies addressing the NRP solution should be structured based on (i) regional heterogeneities, (ii) type of crops, that is, food and feed crops, (iii) the range of nitrogen rates movement; (iv) and the socioeconomic background related to dietary preferences or economic deciles of food expenditure.

Embedded but overlooked values: Ethical aspects of absolute environmental sustainability assessments

AbstractCurrently used sharing principles (grandfathering and final consumption expenditure) do not align with the purpose of Absolute Environmental Sustainability Assessments (AESAs)—enabling all to meet basic needs within the planetary limits. This discrepancy, though niche within life cycle engineering, demands attention due to the integration of the sharing principles in the widely adopted Science Based Targets initiative, embraced by 4000+ companies, representing over a third of the global economy. This paper suggests operationalizing sufficientarianism as a fair sharing principle for AESAs guaranteeing a minimum threshold of well‐being for all. The theory of human needs is highlighted to distinguish luxuries from necessities. This is vital when assigning shares to products/companies, as there's no room for luxuries (products for someone which cause others to fall short), given the extremely limited individual safe operating space, regardless of the sharing approach. This paper argues that sufficientarian‐based sharing principles must overlook historically skewed material welfare distributions to ensure no one falls below the minimum threshold. It underscores the need for an interdisciplinary approach to sharing principles, acknowledging and discussing diverse value perspectives on equal grounds. The focus is to inform and discuss the development of new sharing principles, which introduces initial steps toward a sufficientarian‐based approach. The paper concludes that recognizing embedded values is paramount in sharing principle development. Failing to do so risks letting quantifiable metrics dictate the values integrated into AESAs without open discourse.

Safe system for sustainable development

This paper presents a novel governance concept for sustainable development, introducing the 'Safe System Approach' as a transformative model that shifts focus from individual behavioural change to systemic transformation. This approach challenges traditional governance models that emphasize individual responsibility in achieving sustainable development and decarbonization. Instead, it advocates for creating an enabling environment that inherently guides individuals and communities towards sustainable actions. The Safe System Approach is centred on delivering low-carbon services across essential sectors, including electricity, mobility, industry, buildings, human settlements, and agriculture, thereby embedding sustainability as a default choice in societal systems. Drawing parallels with successful models in road safety, the paper explores the potential of this approach in urban development and climate action. It emphasizes the need for a broad coalition and integrated approaches in managing shared resources, highlighting the significance of systemic adjustments over individual behavioral change. By proposing a structure where sustainability is facilitated by the system's design, the paper builds on key concepts from seminal works by scholars like Garrett Hardin, Mancur Olson, Elinor Ostrom, and Ahrend Lijphart. It discusses the challenges and opportunities in creating safe operating spaces for sustainable development, emphasizing the need for multi-actor, multilevel governance systems that can manage shared resources sustainably and are resilient to political volatility. The paper aims to offer a robust, efficient, and inclusive pathway to sustainable development, contributing to the global discourse on environmental and social resilience.

Can crop production intensification through irrigation be sustainable? An ex-ante impact study of the south-central coastal zone of Bangladesh

In Bangladesh’s south-central coastal zone, there is considerable potential to intensify crop production by growing dry winter season ‘Boro’ rice, maize, wheat, pulses and oilseeds using irrigation from southward flowing and predominantly freshwater rivers. However, the impacts of surface water withdrawal for sustained irrigation and its safe operating space remain unclear. We used field measurements and simulation modeling to investigate the effects of irrigation water withdrawal for Boro rice–the most water-consumptive crop–on river water flow and salinity under different climate change and river flow scenarios. Under the baseline conditions, about 250,000 ha could potentially be irrigated with river water that has salinity levels below 2 dS/m. The impact on river water salinity would be minimal, and only between 0.71 to 1.12% of the cropland would shift from the 0–2 dS/m class to higher salinity levels. Similarly, for the moderate climate change scenario (RCP 4.5) that forecasts a sea level rise of 22 cm in 2050, there would be a minor change in water flow and salinity. Only under the extreme climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), resulting in a sea level rise of 43 cm by 2050 and low flow conditions that are exceeded in 90% of the cases, the 2 dS/m isohaline would move landward by 64 to 105 km in March and April for the Tentulia and Buriswar Rivers. This would expose an additional 36.6% of potentially irrigable cropland to salinity levels of 2 to 4 dS/m. However, Boro rice will already be well established by that time and can tolerate greater levels of salinity. We conclude that there is considerable scope to expand irrigated crop production without negatively exposing the cropland and rivers to detrimental salinization levels while preserving the ecosystem services of the rivers.

Adaptive foraging of pollinators fosters gradual tipping under resource competition and rapid environmental change.

Plant and pollinator communities are vital for transnational food chains. Like many natural systems, they are affected by global change: rapidly deteriorating conditions threaten their numbers. Previous theoretical studies identified the potential for community-wide collapse above critical levels of environmental stressors-so-called bifurcation-induced tipping points. Fortunately, even as conditions deteriorate, individuals have some adaptive capacity, potentially increasing the boundary for a safe operating space where changes in ecological processes are reversible. Our study considers this adaptive capacity of pollinators to resource availability and identifies a new threat to disturbed pollinator communities. We model the adaptive foraging of pollinators in changing environments. Pollinator's adaptive foraging alters the dynamical responses of species, to the advantage of some-typically generalists-and the disadvantage of others, with systematic non-linear and non-monotonic effects on the abundance of particular species. We show that, in addition to the extent of environmental stress, the pace of change of environmental stress can also lead to the early collapse of both adaptive and nonadaptive pollinator communities. Specifically, perturbed communities exhibit rate-induced tipping points at stress levels within the safe boundary defined for constant stressors. With adaptive foraging, tipping is a more asynchronous collapse of species compared to nonadaptive pollinator communities, meaning that not all pollinator species reach a tipping event simultaneously. These results suggest that it is essential to consider the adaptive capacity of pollinator communities for monitoring and conservation. Both the extent and the rate of stress change relative to the ability of communities to recover are critical environmental boundaries.

Developing a Methodological Framework for Assessing Absolute Sustainability in Battery Upscaling within Planetary Boundaries

The electrification of transportation has accelerated greatly in recent years with the support of policymakers. However, this transformation raises the crucial question of the sustainability of such a change. In parallel, the concept of Planetary Boundaries has recently emerged as a framework for quantifying the human pressure on the Earth System. A real interest in applying the Life Cycle Assessment methodology in relation with the Planetary Boundary framework is growing to evaluate the absolute sustainability of products or services. In fact, this could be an opportunity to establish sustainable thresholds for each technology that should not be exceeded. This paper aims to develop a methodology for evaluating the absolute sustainability of the deployment of batteries in the context of the electrification of the French private car fleet. Several sharing principles are used for assigning a Share of the Safe Operating Space, and a prospective LCA is conducted based on different de-carbonization pathways. As a result, this work will provide insights into the development of a go/no-go strategy for the ecodesign and the upscaling of the electric batteries in a prospective perspective.

Re-grounding cumulative effects assessments in ecological resilience

Cumulative effects assessments (CEA) evolved to holistically understand and account for the impact of a spectrum of human and natural disturbances on ecosystems. Yet, the practice of CEA has struggled to overcome siloed and reductionist underpinnings common in the impact assessment arena. One way to move CEA towards more integrated approaches is by drawing on the concept of ecological resilience. Despite gaining considerable attention in other academic spheres, however, ecological resilience remains largely unexplored in CEAs. Motivated by this gap, the objective of this article is to explore how CEAs can be reimagined through an ecological resilience lens to cultivate more integrated and holistic CEA practices. We provide a brief synthesis of CEA theory and practice, highlighting where reductionist, disciplinary, and siloed approaches prevail. Then, we explore three shifts that could recast CEA through the concept of ecological resilience: (1) a shift from valued ecological components to values/identity (resilience pivots), (2) a shift from baseline assessments to ecological trajectories, and (3) a shift from management thresholds to safe operating spaces. We argue that intersecting the practice of CEA with the concept of ecological resilience offers a real opportunity to extend beyond simply being passive respondents to an incremental “death by 1000 cuts” to cultivating the conditions needed for ecological adaption and transformation along desirable pathways.