Rural Industrial Development Research Articles

Simulation and prediction of rural population changes using agent-based modeling.

Rural population change is a critical element of the strategy for rural revitalization in China. Many studies emphasize large-scale macro-population trends, but a noticeable gap exists in micro-level simulations and predictions regarding rural population size and structure. This study employs an agent-based model(ABM), defining a population agent and its behavioral rules. By modeling individual-level birth, death, and migration behaviors, it generates agent-based outputs that aggregate to capture population dynamics and forecast rural demographic trends over the next 11 years. Using two representative villages as study areas, the results were validated by comparing them with actual population data and predictions made by the Leslie model. The findings demonstrate the following: 1) the agent-based modeling effectively captures the dynamics of births, deaths, and migrations at the micro level, elucidating the underlying determinants of rural population retention. 2) In economically disadvantaged villages, the total population, labor force, and proportion of adolescents have significantly declined. Notably, emigration is pronounced in villages without industrial advantages, regardless of substantial per capita arable land; the youth labor force constitutes less than 30%, while the aging population is as high as 45%. 3) Migration and birth rates are key factors influencing rural population trends. To mitigate future rural population aging, enhancing birth rates and fostering rural industrial development is essential to curb migration. These findings support evidence-based policies to stimulate birth rates, attract and retain younger populations, and enhance economic opportunities in rural areas. The micro-level analysis enables the design of more effective and context-specific rural revitalization programs, bridging the gap between micro-level behaviors and macro-level demographic patterns.

Simulation and prediction of rural population changes using agent-based modeling

Rural population change is a critical element of the strategy for rural revitalization in China. Many studies emphasize large-scale macro-population trends, but a noticeable gap exists in micro-level simulations and predictions regarding rural population size and structure. This study employs an agent-based model(ABM), defining a population agent and its behavioral rules. By modeling individual-level birth, death, and migration behaviors, it generates agent-based outputs that aggregate to capture population dynamics and forecast rural demographic trends over the next 11 years. Using two representative villages as study areas, the results were validated by comparing them with actual population data and predictions made by the Leslie model. The findings demonstrate the following: 1) the agent-based modeling effectively captures the dynamics of births, deaths, and migrations at the micro level, elucidating the underlying determinants of rural population retention. 2) In economically disadvantaged villages, the total population, labor force, and proportion of adolescents have significantly declined. Notably, emigration is pronounced in villages without industrial advantages, regardless of substantial per capita arable land; the youth labor force constitutes less than 30%, while the aging population is as high as 45%. 3) Migration and birth rates are key factors influencing rural population trends. To mitigate future rural population aging, enhancing birth rates and fostering rural industrial development is essential to curb migration. These findings support evidence-based policies to stimulate birth rates, attract and retain younger populations, and enhance economic opportunities in rural areas. The micro-level analysis enables the design of more effective and context-specific rural revitalization programs, bridging the gap between micro-level behaviors and macro-level demographic patterns.

Governance-Centred Industrial Symbiosis for Circular Economy Transitions: A Rural Forest Biomass Hub Framework Proposal

This study examines the establishment of a Hub for Circular Economy and Industrial Symbiosis (HUB-CEIS) centred on a forest biomass waste plant in Fundão, Portugal, presenting an innovative model for rural industrial symbiosis, circular economy governance, and sustainable waste management. Designed as a strategic node within a reverse supply chain, the hub facilitates the conversion of solid waste into renewable energy and high-value co-products, including green hydrogen, tailored for industrial and agricultural applications, with an estimated 120 ktCO2/year reduction and 60 direct jobs. Aligned with the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement, this initiative addresses global challenges such as decarbonization, resource efficiency, and the energy transition. Employing a mixed research methodology, this study integrates a comprehensive literature review, in-depth stakeholder interviews, and comparative case study analysis to formulate a governance framework fostering regional partnerships between industry, government, and local communities. The findings highlight Fundão’s potential to become a benchmark for rural industrial symbiosis, offering a replicable model for circularity in non-urban contexts, with a projected investment of USD 60 M. Special emphasis is placed on the green hydrogen value chain, positioning it as a key enabler for regional sustainability. This research underscores the importance of cross-sectoral collaboration in achieving scalable and efficient waste recovery processes. By delivering practical insights and a robust governance structure, the study contributes to the circular economy literature, providing actionable strategies for implementing rural reverse supply chains. Beyond validating waste valorization and renewable energy production, the proposed hub establishes a blueprint for sustainable rural industrial development, promoting long-term industrial symbiosis integration.

Rural Industrialisation: Some Global and Regional Perspectives and Lessons for the 21st Century

The study critically explores global and regional perspectives of rural economic growth strategies, drawing lessons for the 21st century. Rural areas in developing countries face the problem of underdevelopment, widening the rural-urban divide. Rural poverty has made investors to shun doing business in these areas, limiting the opportunities for people living in the countryside. Rural development of industries has emerged as a strategy for rural development, allowing communities to craft better surviving skills. The study is premised on the argument that most perspectives of rural development (agriculture-based approaches, mining and tourism) have failed due to a lack of viable infrastructure to support industrialisation. A qualitative methodology with a case study design is employed. The study utilises secondary information through the use of Google Scholar articles and news reports. The study makes use of thematic data analysis. The findings of the study reveal that rural industrial development has value-addition of local resources. They also show that rural economic development has been crafted to create sustainable livelihoods for rural residents. The study findings are in sync with the conceptual framework -the sustainable livelihoods framework as rural industrialisation has become a people-centred approach as shown by the role of higher education community engagement. The study concludes that rural industrial development can bridge the rural-urban divide and recommends the creation of rural industrial parks and innovation hubs to accelerate value addition.

Research on the Contradictions and Coordination in the Integration of Agriculture, Culture, Sports, and Tourism Industries

With the rapid development of the social economy, the integrated development of agriculture, culture, sports, and tourism industries has become an important means to promote rural revitalization and regional economic growth. Against this background, this study analyzes the internal mechanism of the integration of agriculture, culture, sports, and tourism industries in detail, and proposes corresponding solutions based on the contradictions and challenges faced in the current integration process, hoping to provide some reference and assistance for the high-quality development of rural industries.

Active–reactive coordinated voltage regulation for rural distribution network considering demand response of large-scale aquaculture

The deepening of rural revitalization has diversified the development of rural economic industries and led to the rapid growth of energy demand. However, the infrastructure of the rural distribution network is relatively weak, and voltage fluctuations are becoming increasingly severe, posing huge challenges to the operational safety and stability of the distribution network. This study presents an active-reactive coordinated voltage regulation strategy for a rural distribution network with large-scale aquaculture activity by considering approaches that include distributed energy generation, energy storage, static var generators, and demand response (DR) of the aquaculture load. The proposed approach involves construction of a DR model for aquaculture equipment based on energy demand and operational characteristics. Accordingly, a voltage regulation optimization model is established with the goal of minimizing voltage fluctuations at the nodes of the distribution network by solving the weighted mean of vectors algorithm. Finally, a case study is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed voltage regulation strategy, which is of great significance for promoting the development of rural distribution networks and economic industries.

Performance Evaluation Method for Rural Industrial Development Empowered by Digital Economy Based on Super-Efficient DEA

In order to clarify the investment direction of digital economic resources in rural industrial development and determine whether the digital economy can effectively promote the upgrading and transformation of rural industries, a performance evaluation method is proposed. This method is based on super-efficient data envelopment analysis (DEA) and aims to empower rural industrial development with the digital economy. Based on the theory of industrial structure optimization, industrial correlation theory, and the relationship between factor input and output, we construct a performance evaluation index system. This system is designed for the coordinated development of digital rural industries. We also construct a fuzzy relationship matrix of multidimensional indicators. This is done using the fuzzy decision making trial and evaluation laboratory method to optimize the screening results of input–output indicators. Based on the super-efficient DEA model, we analyze whether there is redundancy or insufficiency in the input and output of each sample. Through this analysis, we achieve an effective evaluation of the performance of the digital economy in empowering rural industrial development. The experimental results show that the overall effectiveness of the performance evaluation results obtained by the design method is relatively high. All effectiveness values are above 95%, with the highest reaching 98%. This method can accurately and effectively evaluate and analyze the performance and benefit level of different rural digital industry clusters, as well as the actual empowerment development of digital technology. Therefore, the performance evaluation results have certain reference and application value.

Analysis of spatial effects and influencing factors of rural industrial integration in China

The integrated development of rural industry is an important path to accelerate rural revitalization, promote modernization of agriculture and rural areas, and build a strong agricultural country. Based on the evaluation index system of rural industrial integration, the level of rural industrial integration of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China is measured from 2012 to 2022; ArcGIS, exploratory spatial data analysis method, and Tobit model are used to classify the level of rural industrial integration, explore the spatial distribution characteristics, and analyse the influencing factors, respectively. The results show that: (1) Rural industrial integration indicator scores show an increasing trend. (2) The level of rural industrial integration varies greatly from region to region, generally showing the development trend of eastern region > central region > western region. (3) The comprehensive level of rural industrial integration and other subsystems in general show significant polarised agglomeration. (4) There is regional heterogeneity in the impact of different factors on rural industrial integration. In view of this, it is recommended to improve the benefit linkage mechanism, give full play to the regional characteristics and advantageous resources of each region, and strengthen inter-regional exchanges and cooperation.

A Study on the Price Spatial Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Rural Homestay in Suzhou Based on the Hedonic Price Model

Using ArcGIS software to conduct spatial autocorrelation analysis, it was found that the price distribution of rural homestays in Suzhou is not random but shows apparent spatial clustering. Among the 81 rural homestays were 9 high-high clusters, 25 low-low clusters, 1 high-low outlier, and 5 low-high outliers. The hedonic price model is an economic model that breaks down goods or services into multiple attributes to estimate their prices. Based on this model, this paper further investigates the differentiated impacts and interactions between internal accommodation characteristics and external environmental attributes in the pricing mechanism of rural homestays in Suzhou. The results show that (1) the high-priced rural homestays in Suzhou are concentrated in the lake island resort with good natural environment and perfect infrastructure; (2) the location, facility quality, and network score of rural homestays have a positive impact on housing prices; (3) the parking lot of rural homestays hurts housing prices; (4) the quality of rural residential buildings and facilities has the most significant positive impact on housing prices. By comparing the hedonic price model of rural homestay and the heterogeneous preferences of consumers, this study provides rural homestay operators with effective room pricing strategies and marketing implications, provides policymakers with reference factors to promote the development of rural homestay industry, and has specific guiding significance for the sustainable development of the homestay industry.

Evaluating the Impact of Rural Construction Land Marketization on Rural Industrial Integration

Industrial prosperity is the prerequisite and foundation of rural revitalization, while rural collective operating construction land (COCL), as an important resource for rural industrial development, has significant theoretical and practical guiding significance regarding whether its market-oriented reform can promote rural industrial integration (RII). This study innovatively combines the synthetic control method (SCM) and mediation effect model to assess the impact of rural collective operating construction land entering the market (COCLEM) on RII, using panel data from 86 counties in Hunan Province (2011–2022), and its underlying mechanisms. This study finds that COCLEM significantly enhances RII, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of tests. A mechanism analysis indicates that COCLEM primarily promotes RII through population agglomeration, fiscal support, and technological upgrading. Furthermore, this study reveals that COCLEM effectively facilitates the extension of the agricultural industry chain and promotes the development of agricultural services. Nevertheless, the improvement of rural infrastructure still requires policy guidance and sustained investment to provide more robust support for RII. Therefore, policymakers should actively formulate a COCLEM policy framework, enhance rural public services, and increase infrastructure investment to continuously promote regional population agglomeration. Local governments should be responsible for ensuring policy implementation and financial support. Additionally, emphasis should be placed on the role of COCLEM in advancing agricultural technology to support RII. Compared with existing research, this study provides new empirical methods and theoretical insights for detailed research on the development of RII.

Does New Infrastructure Promote the Development of Rural Industries? A Nonlinear Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data from China

Whether and how new infrastructure (NI) can drive the development of rural industries (DRI) is crucial to promoting urban–rural balance and ensuring national food security. Based on panel data from Chinese provincial-level regions (2013–2022), this study constructs a comprehensive DRI evaluation system encompassing production systems, economic benefits, industrial integration, and sustainable development. Using the entropy method to measure NI development levels, we examine its heterogeneous impacts on DRI through multiple analytical dimensions. The results reveal three key findings: First, a robust “inverted U-shaped” relationship exists between NI and DRI. Second, heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that (1) both eastern and western regions show this pattern while central and northeastern regions exhibit infrastructure saturation; (2) intelligent transportation infrastructure critically moderates this relationship—advanced regions achieve greater NI efficiency through digital infrastructure–transportation–industrial synergies, whereas underdeveloped regions face bottlenecks; and (3) provinces with lower population density but higher human capital show enhanced NI absorption capacity. Third, mechanism analysis confirms industrial structure upgrading and market expansion as key transmission channels. These findings suggest that implementing tiered intelligent transportation strategies, differentiated NI policies, human capital investment, and rural market expansion optimize NI’s rural development impacts.

Research on the Driving Mechanism and Evolution Path of Digital Economy Empowering the High-quality Development of Rural Cultural Industry - Based on the Field Survey of Four Cities and Four Villages in Guangxi's Xijiang River Basin

As a strong impetus for the development and prosperity of China's culture, rural cultural industry is facing the issues of insufficient development kinetic energy, lack of talent team, and imbalance between cultural protection and economic development. The integration of digital economy stimulates the innovation vitality of cultural industry and effectively promotes the high-quality development of rural cultural industry. This study establishes a theoretical framework for the dynamic process of digital economy to promote the high-quality development of rural cultural industry, makes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the driving mechanism and evolution process of digital economy empowering the development of rural cultural industry, and puts forward the suggestions of improving the transformation efficiency of cultural resources, strengthening the synergy drive of multiple parties, and vigorously cultivating professional talents.

A Study on Precision Agricultural Assistance for Small and Micro Livestock Enterprises in the Greater Bay Area in the New Marketing Environment: A Case Study of Xian Tang Gu Family Farm

As the rural revitalization strategy is vigorously implemented, exploring precision agricultural assistance pathways for small and micro livestock enterprises in the Greater Bay Area becomes crucial in the emerging marketing landscape. This study examines the Xian Tang Gu Family Farm in Dianbai District, Maoming City, Guangdong Province, as a case study. Through on-site research and data analysis, it explores how rural-specific resources can facilitate precision agricultural assistance and enhance marketing strategies for small and micro livestock enterprises. The study finds that Xian Tang Gu Family Farm has achieved certain results in rural revitalization and poverty alleviation, but still faces problems such as single product sales channels, weak agricultural product brand power, and insufficient financing thinking and ability. In response to these problems, this study proposes counter suggestions such as broadening sales channels, strengthening brand construction and certification, introducing digital tools, and making full use of national inclusive financial policies, in order to provide references for other similar enterprises, and to promote small and micro livestock enterprises to better serve the rural revitalization strategy and achieve sustainable development of rural industries.

A Study on the Coupling Coordination of China’s Digital Economy and High-quality Development of Rural Industries and Its Influencing Factors: From the Perspective of Knowledge Economy Theory

A Study on the Coupling Coordination of China’s Digital Economy and High-quality Development of Rural Industries and Its Influencing Factors: From the Perspective of Knowledge Economy Theory

Predicting Rural Industrial Transformation via Coupling Coordination Between Polder-Based Spatial Features and Industrial Development

Rural areas are undergoing a transformation, shifting from traditional agriculture to green and leisure industries, driven by urban–rural imbalances and environmental challenges. This transition, however, presents the growing conflicts between preserving spatial features and promoting industrial development. Based on the unique rural spatial typology of polders, this study integrated theories from cultural, landscape, ecological, economic, and social perspectives to construct a conceptual framework of the interactive relationship between spatial features (SFs) and industrial development (ID). Then, an evaluation index system was constructed to measure the current status of SFs and ID, using data from field surveys, satellite imagery, and 2020 yearbooks, with the Gaochun Polder District, Nanjing (China), as the case study. Next, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model and a scenario analysis based on orthogonal design were applied to assess the coherence and development between SFs and ID, and to identify strategies for optimizing rural industrial development. The results show that (1) the current SFs and ID are in the break-in and basic coordination stage, with ID lagging behind SFs, and (2) the 25 scenarios generated through orthogonal design were categorized into three groups: high-level coordination with synchronization between the two systems, high-level coordination but ID lagging behind SFs, and basic coordination where ID lags behind SFs. To achieve a high-level coordination with synchronization, specific strategies were proposed to enhance agricultural input–output benefits, improve agricultural scale–quality benefits, and, overall, protect the SF system while making minor adjustments to the village dwelling subsystem. Therefore, the findings provide recommendations for traditional polder villages to optimize their rural industries while preserving the distinctive SFs of the rural cultural landscape.

Constructing a Mechanism for Promoting the All-round Rural Revitalization with Talent Revitalization as the Core

Against the backdrop of the comprehensive advancement of the rural revitalization strategy, talent revitalization, as the core driving force, plays a crucial role in achieving the all-round rural revitalization goals of prosperous industries, a pleasant ecological environment, civilized rural customs, effective governance, and prosperous lives. This paper deeply analyzes the current situation of the shortage of rural talents, structural imbalances, and serious brain drain, as well as the many difficulties faced in attracting, cultivating, and retaining talents, such as uncompetitive salary packages, limited development space, an imperfect training system, and lagging infrastructure and public services. By constructing a comprehensive mechanism for talent introduction, cultivation, utilization, and retention, including measures such as formulating preferential policies like housing subsidies and entrepreneurship support, building online talent recruitment platforms, discovering and cultivating local talents, integrating educational resources to carry out targeted training, rationally allocating talents and establishing a performance-oriented evaluation and incentive system, improving the rural environment to address the concerns of talents, etc., a systematic solution path for rural talent revitalization is provided. Research shows that a scientific and effective talent revitalization mechanism can significantly promote rural industrial development, cultural prosperity, ecological protection, and rural governance optimization. To further deepen the promoting effect of talent revitalization on all-round rural revitalization, this paper suggests strengthening policy support and guarantee, creating a good talent development environment, and strengthening the coordination between talent revitalization and the development of various rural fields. This research aims to provide useful references for the theoretical research and practical exploration of rural talent revitalization and facilitate the efficient implementation of the rural revitalization strategy.

Theoretical Research on Promoting the Integrated Development of Rural Industry Through the Digital Economy

With the rapid development of the Digital Economy (DE), its role in promoting the integration of rural industries has become increasingly significant. This paper focuses on theoretical research regarding the integration and development of rural industries in the context of the DE, aiming to explore how the DE facilitates the integration of rural industries and contributes to achieving the strategic goal of rural revitalization. The study employs the SWOT analysis method to systematically evaluate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with rural industrial integration (RII) in the digital economy era. The findings suggest that while China's rural areas are rich in industrial resources and strongly supported by government policies, factors such as short industrial chains, low levels of integration, and an underdeveloped capital and financial service system continue to restrict the development of RII. Although the digital economy era presents significant opportunities for the advancement of intelligent and information-driven digital technologies, it also faces external challenges, such as the digital divide and insufficient laws and regulations. Based on these findings, the paper proposes strategies to strengthen the construction of digital infrastructure (DI), improve rural digital literacy and skills, promote the integrated development of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, and establish and enhance rural financial risk prevention and control mechanisms. These strategies aim to provide both theoretical support and practical guidance for the integration of rural industries and the promotion of sustainable rural economic development.

Professional Managers and Rural Social Integration in the Context of Rural Revitalization: Dilemmas and Countermeasures

In the process of promoting the rural revitalization strategy, rural professional managers are crucial to the development of rural industries, and their integration with rural society affects rural revitalization. This study explores the development of rural professional managers through 355 valid questionnaires. It is found that the gender participation of the team is more balanced, but there is a large proportion of middle-aged, low-educated, and experienced people. They face problems such as low salary, low satisfaction, and insufficient interaction with villagers, and are also constrained by the shortage of talents, insufficient policy support, and imperfect remuneration and incentive mechanisms. For this reason, the introduction of talent training should be strengthened, the policy support system should be improved, and institutional innovation should be promoted to facilitate integration and the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy.

Digitalization of Industrial Chains: Research on Innovative Pathways for Rural Industry Integration and Rural Revitalization

In the context of the digital economy driving China's high-quality development, the digital transformation of rural industries is of great significance for coordinated urban-rural development and rural revitalization. Various regions have actively implemented the "High-Quality Development Project for Hundreds of Counties, Thousands of Towns, and Tens of Thousands of Villages," achieving initial successes in the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism industries as well as in rural revitalization. By constructing diversified industrial systems and establishing industrial alliances, some regions have seen significant investments in multiple agricultural and cultural tourism projects from January to October 2024, creating distinctive brands and promoting a number of enterprises to scale up and integrate into the statistical system, thereby enhancing industrial scale and standardization. However, rural digital development still faces challenges such as insufficient elements for industrial integration, lagging digital infrastructure, and inadequate empowerment of digital inclusive finance. To address these issues, local governments have built digital financial sharing platforms by improving residents' digital literacy, strengthening the integration of digital assets and finance, and fostering cooperation among financial entities, thereby supporting the digital development of rural industries. This paper analyzes the development status, mechanisms, problems, and solutions in some regions, aiming to provide references for other areas to promote rural revitalization and common prosperity.

A Study on the Integrated Development Model of Agriculture, Culture, and Tourism in Guangxi: Based on a Case Study of Four Locations in Three Cities

The comprehensive promotion of rural revitalization has been emphasized as a key goal in China's modernization process. The most challenging tasks in building a modern socialist country are still concentrated in rural areas. The integrated development of agriculture, culture, and tourism is recognized as an important approach to increasing farmers' income, achieving prosperity, and advancing the modernization of agriculture and rural areas. By analyzing the theoretical and practical logic of the integrated development of these sectors and examining successful case studies from several regions in Guangxi, it is concluded that the integration's core lies in using agriculture as the foundation, culture as the core, and tourism as the engine. This collaborative effort among various stakeholders aims to promote the diversified development of rural industries, thereby increasing farmers' income and contributing to rural revitalization.