Runout Simulation Research Articles

Rock-fall runout simulation using a QGIS plugin along north–west coast of Malta (Mediterranean Sea)

Rock-fall runout simulation using a QGIS plugin along north–west coast of Malta (Mediterranean Sea)

AutoATES v2.0: Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale mapping

Abstract. Avalanche risk assessment is complex and challenging, with terrain assessment as one of the most fundamental factors. To aid people's terrain assessment, Parks Canada developed the Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES), a system that classifies the severity of avalanche terrain into five classes from non-avalanche terrain to extreme terrain. Manual classification is laborious and dependent on expert's assessments. To ease the process Larsen et al. (2020) developed an automated ATES model (AutoATES v1.0). Although the model allowed large-scale mapping, it had some significant limitations. This paper presents an improved AutoATES v2.0 model improving the potential release area (PRA) model, utilizing the new Flow-Py runout simulation package. Furthermore, it incorporates forest density data in the PRA, in Flow-Py, and in a newly developed post-forest-classification step. AutoATES v2.0 has also been rewritten in open-source software, making it more widely available. The paper includes a validation of the model measured against two consensus maps made by three experts at two different locations in western Canada. For Bow Summit, the F1 score (a measure of how well the model performs) improved from 64 % to 77 %. For Connaught Creek, the F1 score improved from 40 % to 71 %. The main challenge limiting large-scale ATES classification is the determination of optimal input parameters for different regions and climates. In areas where AutoATES v2.0 is applied, it can be a valuable tool for avalanche risk assessment and decision-making. Ultimately, our goal is for AutoATES v2.0 to enable efficient, regional-scale, and potentially global ATES mapping in a standardized manner rather than based solely on expert judgment.

Hurricane risk assessment in a multi-hazard context for Dominica in the Caribbean

Hurricanes can trigger widespread landslides and flooding creating compound hazards and multiple risks for vulnerable populations. An example is the island of Dominica in the Caribbean, where the population lives predominantly along the coast close to sea level and is subject to storm surge, with steep topography rising behind, with a propensity for landslides and flash river flooding. The simultaneous occurrence of the multiple hazards amplifies their impacts and couples with physical and social vulnerabilities to threaten lives, livelihoods, and the environment. Neglecting compound hazards underestimates overall risk. Using a whole island macroscale, (level-I) analysis, susceptibility scenarios for hurricanes, triggered landslides, and floods were developed by incorporating physical process parameters. The susceptibilities were combined with vulnerability indicators to map spatial patterns of hurricane multi-risks in Dominica. The analysis adopted a coupled approach involving the frequency ratio (FR), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and geographic information system (GIS). Detailed hazard modelling was done at selected sites (level-II), incorporating storm surge estimates, landslide runout simulations, and steady flow analysis for floods. High-resolution terrain data and simulation models, the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) and the hydrologic engineering center’s river analysis system (HEC-RAS), were employed. Ground validation confirmed reasonable agreement between projected and observed scenarios across different spatial scales. Following the United Nations Office for disaster risk reduction (UNDRR) call for the inclusion of local, traditional, and indigenous knowledge, feedback, and expert opinion to improve understanding of disaster risk, 17 interviews with local experts and 4 participatory workshops with residents were conducted, and findings were incorporated into the analysis, so as to gain insights into risk perceptions. The study’s outcomes encompass projections and quantification of hurricane compound hazards, vulnerabilities, accumulated risks, and an understanding of local priorities. These findings will inform decision-making processes for risk mitigation choices and community actions by providing a new framework for multi-hazard risk assessment that is easy to implement in combining different data forms.

Geoinformatics Perspective of Landslide and Catastrophic Flash Floods in Dhauliganga, Uttarakhand, India

On 07 February 2021, around 10:30 hrs local time catastrophic flash flood occurred in the Dhauliganga River (a tributary of the Ganga River) near Rini village at 2000 m above MSL (mean sea level) (Chamoli District), which killed 79 people and about 125 people were missing. Part of the area belongs to Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, which is completely protected from human interventions. Further, on the Dhauliganga River, two run-of-river hydroelectric power Rishiganga Small Hydro (13.2 MW) at 1975 m above MSL and Tapovan Vishnugad (520 MW) at 1795 m above MSL projects were also severely damaged due to the devastating flash flood. More than 150 workers were also trapped in the under-construction power tunnel of the Tapovan Vishnugad project. Initial assessment on the day of the event suggested that there was a glacial burst. Later, it was evaluated through time series of high spatial resolution remote sensing images of various satellites that a large part of a north-facing triangular-shaped slope at 5540 m above MSL had failed, which was also supporting a small hanging glacier. This landslide and, consequently, massive debris flow into the Raunthi Gadhera initially blocked the flow of Dhauliganga near Rini village [at 2000 m above MSL (mean sea level)], which later failed around 10:30 hrs on 07 February 2021 and brought a catastrophic flash flood in the Dhauliganga river. Further, remote sensing images acquired around 10:33 hrs of 07 February 2021 revealed a large dust cloud which clearly unravels the sequence of events from a high-altitude landslide, collapse of a small hanging glacier, and snow avalanche to catastrophic flooding. Even after the catastrophic flash flood of 07 February 2021, an elongated lake was created due to the blocking of the flow of the Rishi Ganga River. For detailed analysis, the calculation of dimension, area and volume of the failed slope was done using the high-resolution satellite images and digital elevation model using the RAMMS modelling technique. The north-facing triangular shape had a base of about 660 m and 1100 m height and the estimated total volume calculated was 20 million cubic meters, including rocks, snow, and ice. The debris flow runout simulation of the event was performed using the RAMMS debris flow model to calculate flow depth, flow velocity and maximum pressure. Also, from high-resolution satellite images, the dimensions of the artificial Rini Lake were estimated to have a length of about 800 m, a width at the front of about 100 m and a depth of about 46m, including freshly deposited debris and silt of about 10 m. To calculate the volume of the lake, simulation of lake was done in ArcView software using digital elevation model, and it came out to be ~5 million cubic meters. The paper also emphasizes monitoring of such vulnerable areas based on high-resolution time series satellite images, which are available on a regular basis to avoid the loss of human lives in the future.

Geoinformatics-based investigation of slope failure and landslide damming of Chenab River, Lahaul-Spiti, Himachal Pradesh, India

A huge landslide blocked the flow of the Chenab River near Nalda village on the morning of 13th August 2021 in the Lahaul-Spiti district of Himachal Pradesh, which led to the flooding of several villages (Nalda, Jasrath, Tarang, etc.) in the Udaipur subdivision. The slope (∼200 ​m height, ∼220 ​m width, and approx. 30 ​m depth) on the left bank of the Chenab River failed, which brought colossal soil and debris. This resulted in the damming of the Chenab River near Leh Baring village, which lies upstream of Nalda Village Bridge and opposite to Junde village, creating a huge water reservoir that later started overflowing, posing a major threat to downstream villages. This caused damage to the houses located downstream, which were submerged, animals were also washed away, and a large part of agricultural land was also inundated. The event was observed and studied using satellite images of high-resolution obtained from Google Earth and Sentinel 2A. The Spatio-temporal satellite images were used to observe the scars developed in the region over the past few years along the river, which evidently show the early signatures of slope failure. To analyze the stability of the hill slope, the factor of safety of the hill was evaluated using SLOPE/W GeoStudio software. Slope map and drainage density map were also generated, showing the vulnerability of the hill slope. The debris flow runout simulation of the event was performed using the RAMMS debris flow model to calculate the volume of the landslide and the water reservoir formed due to damming of the Chenab River. The volume of the landslide (debris) due to slope failure was approx. 2.22 million m3 and the water reservoir volume was approximately 0.3 million m3. The significant factors accountable for the landslide i.e. the slope of the hill, geomorphology of the area, lithology (phyllites), presence of narrow and elongated valleys, the confluences of the river in the area, and continuous rainfall in the region during that period were evaluated. The paper also emphasizes monitoring of such vulnerable areas based on high-resolution time series satellite images, which are available on a regular basis to avoid the loss of human lives in the future.

Numerical modelling of an alpine debris flow by considering bed entrainment

Numerical models have become a useful tool for predicting the potential risk caused by debris flows. Although a variety of numerical models have been proposed for the runout simulation of debris flows, the performances of these models in simulating specific events generally vary due to the difference in solving methods and the simulation of the entrainment/deposition processes. In this paper, two typical depth-averaged models have been used to analyze a well-documented debris-flow event that occurred in the Cancia basin on 23 July 2015. The simulations with and without bed entrainment are conducted to investigate the influence of this process on the runout behavior of the debris flow. Results show that the actual runout can be reproduced only by considering bed entrainment. If basal erosion is not taken into account, part of the debris mass deviates from the main path and both models predict unrealistic bank overflows not observed in the field. Moreover, the comparison between measured and simulated inundated areas shows that both models perform generally well in the terms of simulating the erosion-deposition pattern, although the DAN3D model predicts a greater lateral spreading and a thinner depositional thickness compared to Shen’s model. A simple numerical experiment obtains similar consequences and further illustrates the possible reasons that cause these differences.

Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian Debris Flow Model with Flexible Barrier

Natural hazards such as large debris flow events can have catastrophic effects on the environment and critical infrastructure, posing a significant threat to human life. Debris flows often exhibit high velocity, high-pressure discharges due to their bulk volume, and the capacity to transport considerable volumes of large rocks, boulders, and woody debris. Although debris flow run-out simulations are commonly performed using hydraulic modelling software, these environments are seldom capable of assessing the interaction between the debris fluid, transported material, and protective structures. In this research, large deformation numerical models are calibrated using input parameters from hydraulic modelling software. Due to the computational cost of the large deformation models involving fluid-solid-structure simulation with flexible net barriers, an equivalent stiffness method is implemented to provide comparable performance through a membrane structure. The Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian Finite Element method is used to model the impact forces of rocky boulders on the membrane, exhibiting damage characteristics consistent with flexible ring-net protective structures. The Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian model results highlight the performance of the simplified membrane, as shown through a benchmark simulation of debris flow with boulders.

Hazard Zonation and Risk Assessment of a Debris Flow under Different Rainfall Condition in Wudu District, Gansu Province, Northwest China

Debris flows induced by heavy rainfall are a major threat in Northwest and Southwest China, due to its abrupt occurrence and long runout. In light of this, this work presents the runout simulation and risk assessment of the Boshuigou debris flow under different rainfall conditions in Wudu district, Gansu Province, Northwest China. Based on field reconnaissance, the geomorphological feature and main source of the Boshuigou debris flow were described. With the application of the FLO-2D simulation, the potential flow depth and flow extent of the Boshuigou debris flow under 100-year return-period rainfall and 50-year return-period rainfall were calculated. The maximum flow velocities of the Boshuigou debris flow under the 100-year return-period rainfall and 50-year return-period rainfall were 5.46 and 5.18 m/s, respectively. Accordingly, the maximum flow depths were 5.85 and 5.57 m. Then, the hazard zonation was conducted in combination of the construction and other properties within the potential impact zone, and the risk assessment of the Boshuigou debris flow under the 100-year return-period rainfall and 50-year return-period rainfall was finally completed. This work presents a method for debris flow risk assessment considering the solid source and water flow, which can provide a basic reference for mitigation and reduction of geohazards induced by torrential rainfall.

Evaluating landslide response in a seismic and rainfall regime: a case study from the SE Carpathians, Romania

Abstract. There have been many studies exploring rainfall-induced slope failures in earthquake-affected terrain. However, studies evaluating the potential effects of both landslide-triggering factors – rainfall and earthquakes – have been infrequent despite rising global landslide mortality risk. The SE Carpathians, which have been subjected to many large historical earthquakes and changing climate thus resulting in frequent landslides, comprise one such region that has been little explored in this context. Therefore, a massive (∼9.1 Mm2) landslide, situated along the river Bâsca Rozilei, in the Vrancea seismic zone, SE Carpathians, is chosen as a case study area to achieve the aforesaid objective (evaluating the effects of both rainfall and earthquakes on landslides) using slope stability evaluation and runout simulation. The present state of the slope reveals a factor of safety in a range of 1.17–1.32 with a static condition displacement of 0.4–4 m that reaches up to 8–60 m under dynamic (earthquake) conditions. The groundwater (GW) effect further decreases the factor of safety and increases the displacement. Ground motion amplification enhances the possibility of slope surface deformation and displacements. The debris flow prediction, implying the excessive rainfall effect, reveals a flow having a 9.0–26.0 m height and 2.1–3.0 m s−1 velocity along the river channel. The predicted extent of potential debris flow is found to follow the trails possibly created by previous debris flow and/or slide events.

A novel approach to simulating debris flow runout via a three-dimensional CFD code: a case study of Xiaojia Gully

Extensive models used in debris flow runout simulations are two-dimensional with many limitations. Considering these limitations, a new three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code based on the finite difference method (FDM) was introduced to simulate debris flow runouts. The unique fractional area-volume obstacle representation (FAVOR), true-volume of fluid (Tru-VOF), and the renormalized group (RNG) model in the 3D CFD code were used to tackle mesh processing, free surface tracking, and turbulence, respectively. The RNG model has great performance in describing low-intensity flows and flows with strong shear regions. In addition, the 3D CFD modeling considers the vertical mobility of debris flow, which offers higher simulation accuracy compared to 2D approaches. Through simulating a case and a mesh size study, the accuracy of the model was validated and the optimal mesh size of Xiaojia Gully debris flow model was obtained, respectively. The affected areas, runout distances, deposition depths, and velocities of potential debris flows in Xiaojia Gully were acquired by adopting the present model. The simulation results show that debris flows with return periods of 50 years, 100 years, and 200 years will threaten the lives and safety of residents and their property in Xiaojia Gully. A sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the influences of rheological parameters on this model, further verifying the rationality of the selected parameters. In general, the present model can scientifically and accurately simulate debris flows on irregular terrain and can be employed for similar risk management and engineering designs.

Probabilistic identification of rockfall source areas at regional scale in El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain)

Modelling rockfall phenomena is complex and requires various inputs, including an accurate location of the source areas. Source areas are controlled by geomorphological, geological, or other geo-environmental factors and may largely influence the results of the modelling. In the Canary Islands, rockfalls are extremely common and pose a major threat to society, costing lives, disrupting infrastructure, and destroying livelihoods. In 2011, the volcanic event on the island of El Hierro triggered numerous rockfalls that affected strategic infrastructures, with a substantial impact on the local population. During the emergency, the efforts performed to map the source areas and to model the rockfalls in the considerably steep landscape characterising the island were not trivial. To better identify the rockfall source areas, we propose a probabilistic modelling framework that applies a combination of multiple statistical models using the source area locations mapped in the field as the dependent variable and a set of thematic data as independent variables. The models use as input morphometric parameters derived from the Digital Elevation Model and lithological data as an expression of the mechanical behaviour of the rocks. The analysis of different training and validation scenarios allowed us to test the model sensitivity to the input data, select the optimal model training configuration, and evaluate the model applicability outside the training areas. The final map obtained from the model for the entire island of El Hierro provides the probability of a given location being a potential source area and can be used as the input for rockfall runout simulation modelling.

Run-Out Simulation of a Landslide Triggered by an Increase in the Groundwater Level Using the Material Point Method

Deformation mechanisms of the slopes are commonly schematized in four different stages: pre-failure, failure, post-failure and eventual reactivation. Traditional numerical methods, such as the finite element method and the finite difference method, are commonly employed to analyse the slope response in the pre-failure and failure stages under the assumption of small deformations. On the other hand, these methods are generally unsuitable for simulating the post-failure behaviour due to the occurrence of large deformations that often characterize this stage. The material point method (MPM) is one of the available numerical techniques capable of overcoming this limitation. In this paper, MPM is employed to analyse the post-failure stage of a landslide that occurred at Cook Lake (WY, USA) in 1997, after a long rainy period. Accuracy of the method is assessed by comparing the final geometry of the displaced material detected just after the event, to that provided by the numerical simulation. A satisfactory agreement is obtained between prediction and observation when an increase in the groundwater level due to rainfall is accounted for in the analysis.

Characterization and Dynamic Analysis of the Devils Castle Rock Avalanche, Alta, Utah

ABSTRACT Rock avalanches are large-magnitude mass movements with high mobility and fluid-like runout; however, because of their scarcity, little information is typically available to describe the hazard posed by these events. Geologic records thus provide key data regarding rock avalanche size, timing, and dynamics. Here we present a detailed case history analysis of the Devils Castle rock avalanche located near the town of Alta in the Wasatch Mountains of Utah. The deposit is ∼1.5 km in length with a Fahrboeschung angle of 14 degrees (height-to-length ratio = 0.25). Through topographic reconstruction, we calculated a deposit volume of 1.7 million m3 with a maximum thickness of 25 m and an average thickness of 7 m. Cosmogenic surface exposure dating of six deposit boulders indicates a failure age of 14.4 ± 1.0 ka. The Devils Castle headwall displays no obvious evidence indicating precise source location and geometry; therefore, we reconstructed two plausible source volumes and performed numerical runout simulations for each. Results agree well with mapped deposit boundaries for both source scenarios; however, the east source model better represents material and dynamic characteristics of the deposit observed in the field. While the region is seismically active, the Late Pleistocene age for the rock avalanche precludes ascribing direct correlation with any currently known surface-rupturing paleoearthquakes. We identified and describe five similar events in the region highlighting the extent of the potential hazard. Individual case history analyses such as this allow us to better understand the processes and controls of large-scale mass movements in the region.

Topographic uncertainty quantification for flow-like landslide models via stochastic simulations

Abstract. Digital elevation models (DEMs) representing topography are an essential input for computational models capable of simulating the run-out of flow-like landslides. Yet, DEMs are often subject to error, a fact that is mostly overlooked in landslide modeling. We address this research gap and investigate the impact of topographic uncertainty on landslide run-out models. In particular, we will describe two different approaches to account for DEM uncertainty, namely unconditional and conditional stochastic simulation methods. We investigate and discuss their feasibility, as well as whether DEM uncertainty represented by stochastic simulations critically affects landslide run-out simulations. Based upon a historic flow-like landslide event in Hong Kong, we present a series of computational scenarios to compare both methods using our modular Python-based workflow. Our results show that DEM uncertainty can significantly affect simulation-based landslide run-out analyses, depending on how well the underlying flow path is captured by the DEM, as well as on further topographic characteristics and the DEM error's variability. We further find that, in the absence of systematic bias in the DEM, a performant root-mean-square-error-based unconditional stochastic simulation yields similar results to a computationally intensive conditional stochastic simulation that takes actual DEM error values at reference locations into account. In all other cases the unconditional stochastic simulation overestimates the variability in the DEM error, which leads to an increase in the potential hazard area as well as extreme values of dynamic flow properties.

2D Runout Modelling of Hillslope Debris Flows, Based on Well-Documented Events in Switzerland

In mountain areas, mass movements, such as hillslope debris flows, pose a serious threat to people and infrastructure, although size and runout distances are often smaller than those of debris avalanches or in-channel-based processes like debris floods or debris flows. Hillslope debris-flow events can be regarded as a unique process that generally can be observed at steep slopes. The delimitation of endangered areas and the implementation of protective measures are therefore an important instrument within the framework of a risk analysis, especially in the densely populated area of the alpine region. Here, two-dimensional runout prediction methods are helpful tools in estimating possible travel lengths and affected areas. However, not many studies focus on 2D runout estimations specifically for hillslope debris-flow processes. Based on data from 19 well-documented hillslope debris-flow events in Switzerland, we performed a systematic evaluation of runout simulations conducted with the software Rapid Mass Movement Simulation: Debris Flow (RAMMS DF)—a program originally developed for runout estimation of debris flows and snow avalanches. RAMMS offers the possibility to use a conventional Voellmy-type shear stress approach to describe the flow resistance as well as to consider cohesive interaction as it occurs in the core of dense flows with low shear rates, like we also expect for hillslope debris-flow processes. The results of our study show a correlation between the back-calculated dry Coulomb friction parameters and the percentage of clay content of the mobilised soils. Considering cohesive interaction, the performance of all simulations was improved in terms of reducing the overestimation of the observed deposition areas. However, the results also indicate that the parameter which accounts for cohesive interaction can neither be related to soil physical properties nor to different saturation conditions.

Runout simulation of seismic landslides using discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) with state-dependent shear strength model

The reliable numerical simulation of the landslide process contributes to the establishment of evidence-based disaster mitigation measures in seismically active zones. To achieve this goal, a simple and unified state-dependent shear strength model of discontinuities is presented to describe the shear strength degradation in a seismic landslide process. The proposed model establishes a relationship between the shear strength parameters and the global safety factor of the slope by assuming that the slope instability (or landslide initiation) is accompanied by an instantaneous shear strength degradation of discontinuities. To realize the model numerically, the algorithms for the computation of global safety factor and the modification of shear strength parameters were incorporated into the discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA). Subsequently, the kinematic accuracy of the improved DDA method was validated by comparisons with theoretical solutions for the dynamic sliding of a block on an inclined plane. Numerical simulations of the Daguangbao landslide triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake were performed using the improved DDA method. The results illustrate that the shear strength degradation of discontinuities affect the evolution process, travel distance, and post-failure shape of the seismic landslide significantly.

Evaluation of potential landslide damming: Case study of Urni landslide, Kinnaur, Satluj valley, India

This work aims to understand the process of potential landslide damming using slope failure mechanism, dam dimension and dam stability evaluation. The Urni landslide, situated on the right bank of the Satluj River, Himachal Pradesh (India) is taken as the case study. The Urni landslide has evolved into a complex landslide in the last two decade (2000–2016) and has dammed the Satluj River partially since year 2013, damaging ∼200 m stretch of the National Highway (NH-05). The crown of the landslide exists at an altitude of ∼2180–2190 m above msl, close to the Urni village that has a human population of about 500. The high resolution imagery shows ∼50 m long landslide scarp and ∼100 m long transverse cracks in the detached mass that implies potential for further slope failure movement. Further analysis shows that the landslide has attained an areal increase of 103,900 ± 1142 m2 during year 2004–2016. About 86% of this areal increase occurred since year 2013. Abrupt increase in the annual mean rainfall is also observed since the year 2013. The extreme rainfall in the June, 2013; 11 June (∼100 mm) and 16 June (∼115 mm), are considered to be responsible for the slope failure in the Urni landslide that has partially dammed the river. The finite element modelling (FEM) based slope stability analysis revealed the shear strain in the order of 0.0–0.16 with 0.0–0.6 m total displacement in the detachment zone. Further, kinematic analysis indicated planar and wedge failure condition in the jointed rockmass. The debris flow runout simulation of the detached mass in the landslide showed a velocity of ∼25 m/s with a flow height of ∼15 m while it (debris flow) reaches the valley floor. Finally, it is also estimated that further slope failure may detach as much as 0.80 ± 0.32 million m3 mass that will completely dam the river to a height of 76 ± 30 m above the river bed.

Forensic investigations of the Cima Salti Landslide, northern Italy, using runout simulations

Over the last decades, a movement has begun to reclassify deposits previously misidentified as having origins other than landsliding. The reverse problem of incorrectly assigning deposits a mass movement origin, however, has been addressed less in the landslide community. The Cima Salti Landslide in the Lake Garda region of Northern Italy is a cautionary tale of assuming source areas and volumes. It was traditionally thought to have dammed Tenno Lake in the Middle Ages, and to have a volume of 20–30 Mm3. We show through geological field data and simple runout simulations with the codes DAN3D and SHALTOP (which produced comparable results) that the volume of the landslide was likely significantly overestimated in the past, and that it most likely did not dam Tenno Lake, as has been assumed. We propose that a smaller volume landslide (2–5 Mm3) was deposited on stagnant ice melting in situ in the Lateglacial period, a relatively minor event in the complex history of the Magnone valley. This interpretation emphasizes the importance of careful field investigations and assumption validation, at Cima Salti and in a broader context. It also shows the unique capacity of landslide simulation to guide field observation and discriminate mass emplacement processes.

Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

Abstract. Only two months after a huge forest fire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economic damage, although no lives were lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows that occurred during the event as well as to calculate via back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. Afterwards, the model was validated using 32 debris flows triggered during the same event that were not considered for calibration. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flow run-out on the basin scale. The results were confronted with the existing buildings exposed in the study area and the worst-case scenario showed a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings. In addition, six streams where debris flow occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives were identified.

Slip monitoring of a dip-slope and runout simulation by the discrete element method: a case study at the Huafan University campus in northern Taiwan

Slope failure is a widely observed phenomenon in the mountainous areas in Taiwan due to rainy climatic and fragile geological conditions. Landslides easily occur after intense rainfall, especially from typhoons, and, accordingly, cause a great loss of human life and property. At the northern end of the Western Foothill belt in northern Taiwan, Huafan University is founded on a dip-slope about 20° toward the southwest composed of early Miocene alternations of sandstone and shale. Data from continuous monitoring using inclinometers and groundwater gauges reveal that 6–10 mm/month of slope creeping occurs, and a potential sliding surface is then detected about 10–40 m beneath the slope surface. To understand the potential runout process of the dip-slope failure at the campus, particle flow code 3D models based on a discrete element method are applied in this study. Results of the simulation reveal a critical value of the friction coefficient to be 0.13 and that more than 90% of the campus buildings will slide down in 100 s when the friction coefficient is reduced to half the critical value. The weakening of the shear zone due to the rise of groundwater during rainstorms is assumed to be the main factor. Some suggestions for preventing landslide disasters are to construct catchpits to drain runoff and lower the groundwater table and to install a sufficient number of ground anchors and retaining walls to stabilize the slope.