Rubber Prices Research Articles

Comparison of GBM, GFBM and MJD Models in Malaysian Rubber Prices Forecasting

This research studies three mathematical models, namely geometric Brownian motion (GBM), geometric fractional Brownian motion (GFBM) model which was developed by adding the Hurst parameter to GBM to characterize the long-memory phenomenon, and Merton jump-diffusion (MJD) model which captures shocks via GBM. This study sets out to forecast Malaysia rubber prices for the six months period beginning in January 2022 and ending in June 2022, which involves four main steps; calculating the logarithmic return of rubber prices; estimating the parameters for forecasting the rubber prices using the three models; simulating the rubber prices using the GBM, GFBM and MJD models via Monte Carlo simulation; and computing the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) and forecast accuracy. Simulation results show that the MJD model is the most accurate model in forecasting the rubber prices.

Simulating Rubber Prices under Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion with Different Hurst Estimators

Natural rubber was a vital pillar of Malaysia's export-oriented economy throughout much of the twentieth century, according to the Economic History of Malaya (EHM) website, the worldwide demand for natural rubber is expected to expand at a CAGR of 4.8% in the future (2019–2023). Therefore, it could be concluded that rubber is one of the commodities that should be monitored. Thus, the forecasting of the rubber price should be analysed for the future use. This research focuses on the simulation of rubber prices using geometric Brownian motion and geometric fractional Brownian motion. Moreover, an analysis in the value of hurst exponents' estimator were also done using 3 different methods, Rescaled Range Analysis, Aggravate Variance Method, and Residuals of Regression Method that bases on the slope deviation technique. Finally, an error analysis was done by the calculation of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value to analyse the accuracy of the simulation models.

Forecasting smoked rubber sheets price based on a deep learning model with long short-term memory

<span>This research aimed to create suitable forecasting models with long-short term memory (LSTM) from time series data, the price of rubber smoked sheets (RSS3) using 2,631 data from the Rubber Authority of Thailand for the past 10 years. The data was divided into two sets: first series 2,105 data points were used to create the LSTM prediction model; second series 526 data points were used to estimate forecasting performance using the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and accuracy rate of the model. The results showed that the most suitable forecasting model for time series data, with a total of 9 LSTM layers comprised of 3 primary LSTMs. Each LSTM layer has the number of neurons 100, 150, and 200 to obtain an optimal neural network of the LSTM technique. The number of epochs and iteration was 30, 40, and 50. Dropout layers between each LSTM layer have a probability of 30%. The results of the test to measure the performance of the time series forecasting data showed that the 9-layer model with the LSTM model architecture of LSTM 3 layers gave the best forecast, with RMSE of 2.4121, MAPE of 0.0413 and 95.88% accuracy rate.</span>

Determinants of Smallholder Farmers’ Income-Generating Activities in Rubber Monoculture Dominated Region Based on Sustainable Livelihood Framework

The rapid expansion of rubber plantations in Xishuangbanna, China, has severely decreased rubber prices in the last several years. The income loss and other adverse environmental impacts have brought livelihood challenges and opportunities to develop and adopt more diversified and environmental-friendly income-generating activities (IGAs). To better understand the constraints and opportunities for smallholder rubber farmers to sustain or improve their livelihoods, this study investigates which IGAs are applied by local farmers and the factors that determine their adoption, using the sustainable livelihood framework as the theoretical guideline. The qualitative approach is applied using semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis. Five directions of changes in IGAs (i.e., intercropping, other cash crops, livestock raising for marketing, part-time job, and land renting) are identified, and local farmers are categorized into three groups (i.e., rejective, affirmative, and hesitate groups) based on their attitudes towards these IGAs. The results reveal that the main adoption motivations of certain IGAs are closely related to price shock, economic return, information, and extension service. Based on the results, suggestions are provided to enhance farmers’ motivation to make changes and improve the adoption of emerging IGAs with attention given to vulnerability contexts, livelihood assets and institutional assistance.

Hybridized Intelligent Neural Network Optimization Model for Forecasting Prices of Rubber in Malaysia

Hybridized Intelligent Neural Network Optimization Model for Forecasting Prices of Rubber in Malaysia

ТОРГОВО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ОТНОШЕНИЯ РЕСПУБЛИКИ ИНДОНЕЗИЯ И КОРОЛЕВСТВА ТАИЛАНД

The article id devoted to the problems of bilateral trade and economic cooperation of two ASEAN country-members, Indonesia and Thailand. The main attention is paid to the bilateral trade, the problems of mutual investments and cooperation in the field of tourism are also regarded as well as a cooperation in the field of banking for organizing cross border payments using digital technologies, a cooperation for stabilizing rubber prices and for prevention of illegal fishing.

ANALISIS KONDISI EKONOMI KARET DI BANJARMASIN BERDASARKAN KORAN BINTANG BORNEO TAHUN 1930

Bintang Borneo newspaper is a newspaper that was first published in 1924 in Banjarmasin. Information about the economy is of course important for the people of Kalimantan. One of the characteristics of rubber cultivation in the Banjarmasin area was that it was first started by foreign entrepreneurs, but later on, native planters played an important role. The main livelihood of the people in Banjarmasin in 1930 was rubber plantations. In early 1930 the world economic crisis occurred and had a direct effect on rubber prices and the community's economy.

Rich Dad and Poor Dad: Biomass Circularity Science Empathizing Rubber Smallholders

Analysis of rubber and rubberwood biomass management revealed an actualized twin-loop circularity arising from the multibillion-dollar export revenue downstream and upstream segments. Despite resembling zero-waste and resource-efficient system, the revenue from natural rubber exports does not translate as the wealth of rubber smallholders, pressing them as the persistent ‘poor dad’ in the rubber value chain. This study dwells on how to empower the smallholders through high-quality rubber production efficiency to compensate for the nose-diving rubber price. Analysis of the challenges facing the seemingly forced labor recognized operational costs as the main hindrance to productivity. Mapping the challenges to solutions identified the need for immediate actions and the transformative actionable educational approach for deploying an efficient upstream segment. Access to productive clones, government stringent taxation policy on imported rubber feedstock, and a shift to machine-tapper and portable rubber processors are the immediately actionable solutions. Availing expandable rubber-related education programs for youths in smallholder families is critical to actualize technology-driven, and high-productivity farming for the segment to build back better. Continuous learning is mandatory to innovate, engage in the value chain, and multiply the current twin-loop circularity for the succession of dignified smallholders in sustaining the rubber industry.

The Effect of Domestic Consumption on Natural Rubber Farmgate Price in Indonesia

The decline in natural rubber farmgate prices in recent years directly impacted Indonesia’s natural rubber market. In response to this phenomenon, the government plans to increase natural rubber domestic consumption to raise Indonesia’s rubber price. This study aimed to determine the effect of increasing natural rubber domestic consumption on natural rubber farmgate prices and analyze other factors those influence it. The Error Correction Model was used to identify the variables that significantly affect Indonesia’s natural rubber farmgate price. The data used in this study were monthly data from January 2012 to December 2017. Results showed that natural rubber domestic consumption did not significantly affect the Indonesia natural rubber farmgate price. However, in the long run, Indonesia’s natural rubber farmgate price was influenced by the previous period of Indonesia’s natural rubber prices, world natural rubber prices, world crude oil prices, and exchange rates. While in the short run, Indonesia’s natural rubber farmgate price was influenced by the previous period of Indonesia’s natural rubber prices, world natural rubber prices, and exchange rate.

Competitiveness and determinants of Indonesia's natural rubber exports in main partner countries

The main destination countries play an important role in Indonesia's natural rubber exports, as most of Indonesia's natural rubber is exported to these countries. The purpose of this study was to examine the comparative advantage and determinants of Indonesia's natural rubber exports to major partner countries. The RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) index is used to assess the comparative advantage, and panel data regression analysis is used to analyze the determinants of exports to the main partner countries (USA, China, Japan, India, Republic of Korea, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Belgium and Turkey). The results of this study indicate that Indonesian natural rubber has a comparative advantage in the main partner countries, which are characterized by RCA index >1. In addition, it was determined that based on panel data regression, the increase in the world price of natural rubber and export restriction policies have led to a decline in natural rubber exports from Indonesia. It is found that the population of Indonesia reduces exports, while the population of partner countries increases exports due to population growth, which will increase the consumption of natural rubber. On the other hand, the increase in Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) will lead to an increase in natural rubber production capacity, which will contribute to an increase in exports. It is found that the previous year's demand was also taken into account by partner countries that import Indonesian natural rubber. The results of this study can be useful for the Indonesian government and stakeholders (such as natural rubber producers and exporters) to identify strategies to improve export performance

Resilience of Rubber Farmers' Households Due to Aslide Disaster in the Danau Village, Nalo District, Tantan Merangin Jambi Province

The focus of this study is to analyze the resilience of rubber farmer households due to landslides in the lake village, Nalo Tantan sub-district, Merangin Regency, Jambi Province. This study used a qualitative approach with descriptive type, and the informants of this study were carried out by purposive sampling. The informants of this research are rubber farmer households experiencing pressure from landslides. Data collection methods started from in-depth interviews, observation and document data collection. The unit of analysis in this study is at the household level, namely the rubber farmer household. Data analysis was carried out in several stages, namely data collection, data reduction, data study and drawing conclusions, which were referred to in the Miles and Hubermen model. The results of this study indicate that the household life of rubber farmers is included in the lower middle economy . Rubber farmer households continue to survive driven by the lack of capital to find adequate housing to keep living. The problem found by researchers is that there are no other jobs or other skills owned by rubber farmers. The income of rubber farmers can be seen from the amount or nominal amount of money generated from the sale of rubber. The high and low prices of rubber greatly affect production

The Application of K-Means Clustering Method for Rubber Price Grouping in Sengkuang Jaya Village Bengkulu Province

Sengkuang Jaya village is an area located in Bengkulu province. The calculation of price for rubber is still calculated manually in the village. This study wants to apply the k-means clustering method for calculating rubber prices according to the quality of rubber owned by farmers in Sengkuang Jaya Village, Bengkulu Province. This study aimed to determine prices based on rubber quality in Sengkuang Jaya Village,Bengkulu Province. The tehnique of collecting the data of this study used interview and observation.The results showed that from 15 samples of rubber latex data taken,the price of rubber with the highest cluster was found for rubber 2 weeks and over and for rubber 2 weeks down including cluster 2.The results of testing the rapidminer tools run well without any errors. Base on the result of the study can be suggested that further research can be developed with the same type of data but using better methods such as using the Fuzzy C-Means algorithm, Hard C-Means and completing the sample which may be up to 1 year of rubber storage.

Analisis Faktor - Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Karet Indonesia Ke Amerika Serikat

This study aims to analyze the factors affecting the Indonesian rubber exports to the United States. The variables observed in this research were the value of Indonesian rubber exports to the United States, international rubber prices, the rupiah against the dollar exchange rate, US GDP per capita, and inflation. The data analysis technique used is Ordinary Least Square (OLS), with a period of time from 1995 to 2019. The result of the study shows that the variables of the dollar exchange rate against the rupiah, international rubber prices and GDP per capita in the United States have a joint effect. The exchange rate variable is the most dominant factor partially.

Independent and Dependent Variable: Influence on Jambi Province Rubber Exports

Introduction/Main Objectives: This study was conducted to determine the effect of processed rubber production (X1), world rubber prices (X2), and exchange rates (X3) on the value of Jambi Province rubber exports (Y). The data in this study are secondary data sourced from the Jambi Central Statistics Agency for the period 2011-2021. Background Problems: The role of rubber exports is quite crucial for the economy of Jambi Province, apart from being a source of income, rubber exports also act as a promoter of regional development so that it is possible to create downstream effects for economic activities, especially the development of downstream industries. Research Methods: Several statistical tests were carried out, namely developmental analysis and regression analysis, to determine the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable. Finding/Results: The research found that the world rubber price significantly impacted the value of rubber exports. In contrast, the production of processed rubber and the exchange rate had no significant effect on the value of rubber exports. However, simultaneous calculation results show that the production of processed rubber, world rubber prices, and the exchange rate significantly impact Jambi's rubber exports. Conclusion: From the analysis of the coefficient of determination, 82% of Jambi Province's rubber exports are influenced by processed rubber production, world rubber prices, and exchange rates, and other variables that influence the remaining 18%.

Indian natural rubber price forecast–An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach

The objective of this study was to forecast the price of natural rubber in India during April 2019 to March 2020 by employing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The monthly pricing data for the period from April 2008 to March 2018 was used for the study. The analysis was carried out during the year 2018–19. RSS4 (Ribbed Smoked Sheets), latex (60% DRC (Dry Rubber Content)) and ISNR 20 (Indian Standard Natural Rubber) are the different types of Indian natural rubber that are competitive in international rubber market. The prices of these types of natural rubber were taken for modelling. AIC was used as a selection criterion for the best-fitted model. ARIMA(3,1,2) for RSS 4, ARIMA (3,1,2) for Latex 60% DRC, and ARIMA (4,1,3) for ISNR20were the most suited modelsto forecast the price.The evaluation metrics were R2, Adjusted R2, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). These were employed for validating the forecasting model. The price forecasting of natural rubber in India can be a better-suited tool for the policymakers to decide on their investment in natural rubber cultivation.

A Data Visualization of Rubber Planting in Thailand

The rubber tree is considered one of the most important economic crops in Thailand generating a large amount of income for the country. The problem of rubber prices that have been continuously declining since 2012 is a critical issue that requires an appropriate solution. Consequently, a study to understand the demand and supply model of rubber along with data collection and visualization of rubber planting in Thailand are highly essential. A finding from this paper presents that there is an excessive supply of rubber over its demands. Accordingly, one of the proposed solutions to solve the rubber price problems is that the Thai government should have strict control over rubber planting areas in Thailand as the rules specified in agro-economic zones. Another proposed solution is that the Thai government may include some provinces in the northeast of Thailand in agro-economic zones as these areas also generate a high volume of rubber. Keywords—rubber price, data visualization, web scraping, system dynamics, causal loop diagram, agro-economic zone.

Using a participatory system dynamics modelling approach to inform the management of Malaysian rubber production

CONTEXTIncreasing rubber price volatility has adversely affected smallholders – Malaysia's primary rubber producers' livelihood. This, in turn, has caused them to abandon rubber farming and led to the decline of Malaysian rubber production over the last few decades. In this paper, a rubber production model was developed using a participatory system dynamics modelling approach, involving multiple key rubber industry stakeholders. OBJECTIVEThe study's objectives include: 1) to use the developed rubber production model to quantitatively assess the impact of interactions between key components of the rubber production system at the farm, national, and global levels on rubber production; and 2) to test the effectiveness of existing and proposed plausible policy and management scenarios to improve rubber production. METHODSWe conducted structural, behavioural patterns, and statistical tests to evaluate and validate the performance of the developed model. We simulated key variables including smallholder and national productions, and farm-gate, national and global prices for a 30-year period. The model is set-up with time unit of years and time step of 0.25 years, using the Stella Architect software. Our analysis showed that the simulated outputs agreed well with the observed behaviour of the system. A sensitivity analysis indicated the model is reliable and robust to uncertainties in the major parameters. Five policy scenarios: (1) business as usual; (2) farm-level focused; (3) national-level focused; (4) global-level focused; and (5) balanced were simulated to assess their impact on smallholder and national production, smallholder net revenue, and global, national and farm-gate rubber prices. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSThe results showed that the farm-level focused and balanced scenarios would significantly improve and double smallholder and Malaysian rubber production. Based on the scenarios analyses, Malaysian rubber production can be improved by (1) tightening rubber export restrictions at the global level; (2) increasing domestic rubber consumption and reducing rubber imports at the national level; (3) increasing rubber production incentive; (4) improving collaboration between agencies and increasing resources available to extension and enforcement agents, and rubber production incentive campaigns; and (5) finding additional income, through intercropping at the farm level for example. SIGNIFICANCEThe model is flexible, and other rubber producing countries with similar features and environmental and socioeconomic conditions can adapt the system dynamics simulation model to understand and evaluate the impact of policies that can improve the livelihood of smallholders.

Analisis Integrasi Pasar Karet: Pada Delapan Provinsi Produsen Karet Terbesar di Indonesia

Rubber is the country's second largest foreign exchange earner in domestic agricultural products and provides the livelihood for 2.5 million families in Indonesia. Rubber plantations are spread in various provinces of Indonesia which are the second largest rubber producer with the largest plantation area in the world. The purpose of this study is to analyze the integration of the natural rubber market at the producer level and to find out how far changes in prices that occur in one market will cause changes in other markets. The analyzed provinces were eight provinces of Indonesia using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis methods using Rstudio and Eviews analysis tools. The price data used is from January 2016 to December 2021. The data obtained are from the SIM of the ministry of agriculture and the plantation service in the eight sample provinces with . The results of this study are that there is a balance and short-term and long-term integration between the largest rubber-producing provinces in Indonesia. Price changes in South Sumatra two months earlier had a negative effect on price changes in North Sumatra Province. Three months earlier, price changes in South Sumatra had a negative relationship with Lampung. This means that the increase in prices in South Sumatra Province in the previous three months led to a decrease in natural rubber prices in Lampung Province this month or vice versa and so on. Lag defined up to lag 3 (three months before) integration analysis supported by Granger causality test supported by IRF and FEVD.

Pengaruh Produksi, Harga Karet Internasional dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Volume Ekspor Karet Alam Indonesia

This study aims to analyze (1) the contribution of natural rubber exports to Indonesia's total rubber exports and (2) the effect of production, international rubber prices, and exchange rates on Indonesia's natural rubber export volume. The data used is secondary data for the period 2001 – 2015. The data comes from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia. Data were analyzed descriptively and using multiple linear regression models. The study's results found that during 2001 - 2015, the average contribution of natural rubber exports to total rubber exports in Indonesia reached 98.40%. Statistically, natural rubber exports are significantly influenced by rubber production, world rubber prices, and exchange rates.

Pemanfaatan Daun Serai Wangi sebagai Bahan Baku Pembuatan Minyak Atsiri untuk Peningkatan Ekonomi Masyarakat Desa

The fall in prices of oil palm and rubber has an impact on weakening the economy of the community, so we need another solution in an effort to increase again. Lemongrass plant is one of the producers of essential oils. Essential oils are plant extracts that are widely used in the chemical industry. Lemongrass plants suitable for planting in tropical climates and do not require expensive maintenance and a long time. The production of essential oils through the distillation process so that condensate is produced which will be purified through the distillation process. Lemongrass oil commodity has a high selling price, so it is expected to increase farmers' income and employment. The results of this community service were that the Batubelah Village Community was interested in citronella cultivation considering the economic condition of the community had plummeted due to falling oil and rubber prices.