Rossby-gravity Waves Research Articles

Influence of mixed Rossby-Gravity waves on the North-East monsoon rainfall over south India

The northeast (NE) monsoon contributes considerable annual rainfall over southern peninsular India. Here, an attempt has been made to evaluate the role of convectively coupled mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) waves on the variabilities of NE monsoon rainfall. The gridded rainfall data from 1980 to 2021 from the India Meteorological Department shows large interannual variability in NE monsoon rainfall over southern peninsular India. Wavelet analysis of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data shows the dominance of short-period waves over the equatorial Indian Ocean during the years with above-normal NE monsoon rainfall compared to below-normal rainfall years. The space–time spectral analysis further confirms the dominance of short-period westward propagating convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEW) during above-normal NE monsoon rainfall years. In contrast, the eastward component of CCEWs dominates during the below-normal rainfall years. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of MRG waves filtered OLR data shows that the first two leading modes explain more than 14 % of variability over the Indian Ocean domain. Moreover, the vertically integrated moisture flux convergence indicates the role of MRG wave in triggering the extreme rainfall over southern peninsular India and also offers favorable conditions for the formation of cyclogenesis and, thereby, inducing heavy rainfall over the South Indian domain. Thus, the results suggest that the westward propagating MRG waves play a seminal role in modulating the NE monsoon rainfall over southern peninsular India.

Large Scale Oscillations in the Martian Tropical Cloud Belt

AbstractThe Tropical Cloud Oscillation (TCO) in the Martian atmosphere is a shift of clouds in the northern spring and summer tropical cloud belt between the eastern and western hemispheres on an intra‐seasonal timescale of about 10–40 sols. The TCO is a significant intraseasonal variation and may strongly affect the Martian general circulation, water cycle, and dust cycle. We examine TCOs using multiple data sets with a focus on the clouds observed in Mars Daily Global Maps during Mars Year (MY) 29–35. One or more TCO cycles are observed in each MY and the phenomenon is most prominent during Ls = 135°–185°. Space‐time spectral analysis shows a variety of waves which appear to follow the theoretical dispersion relationships of equatorial waves, such as Kelvin waves, Rossby waves, and Mixed Rossby Gravity waves. The TCO appears to be controlled by zonal wavenumber one traveling waves with Kelvin and Rossby wave characteristics and exhibits a fine‐scale latitudinal structure that requires modeling with sufficient resolution. Issues with current data assimilation products for use in studies of Martian equatorial waves due to this fine‐scale structure are discussed.

Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves at Middepths of the Equatorial Indian Ocean

Abstract This study examines mixed Rossby gravity (MRG) waves at middepths (500–2000 m) of the Indian Ocean, using multiyear velocity time series obtained from current-meter moorings at 77°, 83°, and 93°E along the equator over the period 2000–19. These data are analyzed in combination with a high-resolution wind-forced ocean general circulation model. The spectrum of observed meridional velocity showed elevated energy over a wide range of periods from about 10 to 100 days with the spectral peak at a period of about 30 days. The model was able to simulate the characteristics of the observed spectrum. Further diagnostics determined that the detected variability is generally consistent with theoretical MRG waves in a resting ocean. Statistical analysis and a model sensitivity experiment identified distinct variations at three periods, where meridional velocity has sizable energy. The 14-day variability is wind driven and has a long zonal (∼3300 km) and vertical (∼4200 m) wavelength. The 28-day variability is excited by the dynamical instability of the background flow in the equatorial western Indian Ocean near the surface and propagates to the study area. It is characterized by a shorter zonal (∼1100 km) and vertical (∼2800 m) wavelength compared to 14-day variability. The 43-day variability has a zonal wavelength (∼820 km) comparable to the 28-day variability but does not show the tendency of propagation and is likely generated in situ through nonlinear interactions. These results show that various processes contribute to the excitation of MRG waves at middepths of the Indian Ocean. Significance Statement Mixed Rossby gravity (MRG) waves are a prominent mode of intraseasonal variability in tropical oceans. They are of climatic importance owing to their effects on turbulent mixing in the deep sea and how they affect the large-scale ocean circulation. This study examines MRG waves at the middepths of the equatorial Indian Ocean using a unique set of in situ current-meter measurements and a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. We describe characteristics such as horizontal and vertical wavelengths, frequency spectra, dispersion properties, and energy sources. Results show that wind forcing at the sea surface, dynamical instability of the background flow near the surface in the western Indian Ocean, and nonlinear interactions generate MRG waves at distinct periods and wavelengths.

Western North Pacific Monsoon Vorticity Distribution as a Potential Driver of Interannual Meridional Migration of the Boreal Summer Synoptic-Scale Wave Train

Abstract On interannual time scales, there is significant meridional migration of the boreal summer (May–October) synoptic-scale wave (SSW) train relative to the summer monsoon trough line over the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1979–2021. The associated plausible physical reasons for the SSW meridional migration are investigated by comparing analyses between two distinct groups: atypical SSW years where SSWs tend to prevail northward of the summer monsoon trough line and typical SSW years where SSWs largely occur along the summer monsoon trough line. During typical SSW years, SSWs originate primarily from equatorial mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves and then develop into off-equatorial tropical depression (TD) waves in the lower troposphere of the monsoon region. During atypical SSW years, SSWs appear to be sourced from upper-level easterlies, propagating downward to the lower troposphere in the monsoon region, with a prevailing TD wave structure. A budget analysis of barotropic eddy kinetic energy suggests that interannual meridional SSW migration is closely related to changes in the vorticity distribution along the summer monsoon trough over the WNP, especially the western part of the summer monsoon trough. These changes cause low-frequency zonal convergence and shear differences, changing barotropic conversion around the monsoon trough and modulating interannual SSW meridional movement. In response to these changes, there are corresponding differences in SSW sources: a predominate MRG–TD wave pattern in typical SSW years and a predominate TD wave pattern in atypical SSW years. These results improve our understanding of the interannual variability of large-scale circulation and tropical cyclones.

Excitation of mixed Rossby–gravity waves by wave–mean flow interactions on the sphere

AbstractThe equatorial mixed Rossby–gravity wave (MRGW) is an important contributor to tropical variability. Its excitation mechanism capable of explaining the observed MRGW variance peak at synoptic scales in the troposphere remains elusive. This study investigates wave–mean flow interactions as a generation process for the MRGWs using the TIGAR model, which employs Hough harmonics as the basis of spectral expansion on the sphere, thereby representing MRGWs as prognostic variables. Idealized numerical simulations reveal the interactions between waves emanating from a symmetric tropical heat source and an asymmetric subtropical zonal jet as an excitation mechanism for the MRGWs. The excited MRGWs have variance spectra resembling the observed MRGWs in the tropical troposphere. The mixed Rossby–gravity energy spectrum has a maximum at zonal wavenumbers –5 also in the case of an asymmetric forcing that generates MRGWs across large scales. Effects of wave–wave interactions appear of little importance for the MRGW growth compared with wave–mean flow interactions. Application of the zonal‐mean zonal wind profiles from ERA5 reaffirms the importance of the asymmetry of the zonal mean flow.

The Relationship between Convectively Coupled Waves and the East Pacific ITCZ

Abstract Longstanding climate model biases in tropical precipitation exist over the east Pacific (EP) Ocean, especially during boreal winter and spring when models have excessive Southern Hemisphere (SH) precipitation near the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). In this study, we document the impact of convectively coupled waves (CCWs) on EP precipitation and the ITCZ using observations and reanalyses. We focus on the months when SH precipitation peaks in observations: February–April (FMA). CCWs explain 93% of total precipitation variance in the SH, nearly double the percent (48%) of the NH during FMA. However, we note that these percentages are inflated as they inevitably include the background variance. We further investigate the three leading high-frequency wave bands: mixed Rossby–gravity waves and tropical depression–type disturbances (MRG–TD type), Kelvin waves, and n = 0 eastward inertia–gravity waves (IG0). Compared to their warm pool counterparts, these three CCWs have a more zonally elongated and meridionally narrower precipitation structure with circulations that resemble past observational studies and/or shallow water theory. We quantify the contribution of all CCWs to four different daily ITCZ “states”: Northern Hemisphere (NH) (nITCZ), SH (sITCZ), double (dITCZ), and equatorial (eITCZ) using a new precipitation-based ITCZ-state algorithm. We find that the percent of total precipitation variance explained by each of the CCWs is heightened for sITCZs and eITCZs and diminished for nITCZs. Last, we find that nITCZs are most prevalent weeks after strong CCW activity happens in the NH, whereas CCWs and sITCZs peak simultaneously in the SH. Significance Statement Convectively coupled atmospheric waves (CCWs) are a critical feature of tropical weather and are an important source of precipitation near the region of highest precipitation on Earth called the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Given three decades of climate model biases in CCWs and ITCZ precipitation over the east Pacific (EP) Ocean during spring, few studies have examined the relationship between CCWs and the springtime EP ITCZ. We explored the CCWs and EP ITCZ relationship through calculations of the percent of precipitation that comes from CCWs. A significant portion of the tropical precipitation is associated with CCWs during spring. CCWs are even more impactful when the ITCZ is in the SH or on the equator, which are both problematic in climate models.

Tropical and Subtropical South American Intraseasonal Variability: A Normal-Mode Approach

Instead of using the traditional space-time Fourier analysis of filtered specific atmospheric fields, a normal-mode decomposition method was used to analyze South American intraseasonal variability (ISV). Intraseasonal variability was examined separately in the 30–90-day band, 20–30-day band, and 10–20-day band. The most characteristic structure in the intraseasonal time-scale, in the three bands, was the dipole-like convection between the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and the central-east South America (CESA) region. In the 30–90-day band, the convective and circulation patterns were modulated by the large-scale Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). In the 20–30-day and 10–20-day bands, the convection structures were primarily controlled by extratropical Rossby wave trains. The normal-mode decomposition of reanalysis data based on 30–90-day, 20–30-day, and 10–20-day ISV showed that the tropospheric circulation and CESA–SACZ convective structure observed over South America were dominated by rotational modes (i.e., Rossby waves, mixed Rossby-gravity waves). A considerable portion of the 30–90-day ISV was also associated with the inertio-gravity (IGW) modes (e.g., Kelvin waves), mainly prevailing during the austral rainy season. The proposed decomposition methodology demonstrated that a realistic circulation can be reproduced, giving a powerful tool for diagnosing and studying the dynamics of waves and the interactions between them in terms of their ability to provide causal accounts of the features seen in observations.

Impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation and equatorial waves on tracked mesoscale convective systems over southeast Asia

AbstractSoutheast Asia is a region dominated by high‐impact weather, but numerical weather prediction here is a challenge owing to the complex orography and interactions between small‐ and large‐scale phenomena. Localised mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) can produce intense precipitation. Here, we track MCSs over a 5‐year period in Himawari satellite data, characterise the distribution of MCSs in the region, and investigate how they are modulated by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and equatorial waves. Between 10°S and 10°N in southeast Asia, MCSs account for 45–70% of the precipitation during boreal extended winter (November–April). Over most of the region, the fractional MCS contribution to rainfall is higher than average on days with extreme rainfall (>55%). Long‐lived (>12 hr) MCSs contribute disproportionately, providing 85% of the rainfall despite comprising only 34% of all MCSs. Variability in MCS rainfall accounts for >50% of the total rainfall variability during an MJO cycle, mostly due to larger numbers of MCSs in convectively active MJO phases. Variations in MCS size and mean rain rate due to shifts in the stratiform proportion provide compensating effects. In the west of the region, a shift to faster moving MCSs in active MJO phases and slower moving MCSs in inactive phases resulted in fast‐moving MCSs having the greatest impact on the MJO‐associated variability. Variability is larger in the west than in the east. Equatorial Kelvin waves modulate MCS rainfall, with MCSs accounting for 20–50% of local rainfall anomalies. This variability is again enhanced in the west. By contrast, rainfall anomalies due to westward‐propagating mixed Rossby–gravity waves and Rossby‐1 waves are dominated by tropical‐cyclone‐related rainfall. Skill at local scales may be extracted from forecasts of subseasonal drivers such as the MJO and Kelvin waves, by understanding how these modulate the number and characteristics of MCSs.

A survey of westward‐propagating mixed Rossby–Gravity waves and quantification of their association with extratropical disturbances

AbstractIn this study we have conducted a survey of westward‐propagating mixed Rossby–Gravity (MRG) wave events in the upper troposphere and quantified their association with the intrusions of extratropical disturbances for the period 1979–2019. MRG wave events are identified by imposing the meridional structure of theoretical MRG waves onto the equatorial meridional winds at 200 hPa. In all, 2390 MRG wave events are identified and the majority (61%) of them occurred during the months of May–October, and 65% of the total MRG wave events occurred over the central–east Pacific and Atlantic Ocean domains. Not only the frequency of occurrence but also the amplitude, wavenumber and trapping scale of the MRG wave events are found to exhibit a clear seasonality. MRG wave events associated with intrusions of extratropical disturbances are identified as when the potential vorticity on the 350‐K isentropic surface at 15° latitude exceeded 1 Potential Vorticity Unit (PVU) in the vicinity of the MRG wave events. We find that 37% of the MRG wave events are intrusion MRG wave events and a large majority (88%) of such events occurred over the central–east Pacific and Atlantic Ocean domains. It is also noteworthy that nearly 70% of such intrusions occurred in the winter hemisphere where the westerly wind ducts are well developed. Over the central–east Pacific during northern hemispheric (NH) winter, it is observed that the intrusion MRG wave events have a bigger amplitude and have a larger meridional extent compared to non‐intrusion MRG wave events. They also exhibit a similar spatial scale as the extratropical disturbances implying that resonant interactions may be a primary mechanism for the genesis of MRG wave events. During NH summer, on the other hand, MRG wave events are primarily triggered by convective processes and the extratropical disturbances may be instrumental in amplifying their amplitude.

Comparison of probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation for a global and convection‐permitting ensemble and hybrid statistical–dynamical method based on equatorial wave information

AbstractRecent work has demonstrated that skilful hybrid statistical–dynamical forecasts of heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia can be made by combining model forecasts of the phases and amplitudes of Kelvin, Rossby, and westward‐moving Rossby gravity waves with climatological rainfall statistics conditioned on these waves. This study explores the sensitivity of this hybrid forecast to its parameter choices and compares its skill in forecasting extreme rainfall events in the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam to that of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The hybrid forecast is found to outperform both the global and convection‐permitting ensemble in some regions when forecasting the most extreme events; however, for less extreme events, the ensemble is found more skilful. A weighted blend of the MOGREPS forecasts and the hybrid forecast was found to have the highest skill of all for almost all definitions of extreme event and in most regions. To quantify the influence of errors in the predicted wave state on the skill of the hybrid forecast, the skill of a hypothetical best‐case forecast was also calculated using reanalysis data to specify the wave amplitudes and phases. This best‐case forecast indicates that errors in the forecasts of all wave types reduce the skill of hybrid forecast; however, the reduction in skill is largest for Kelvin waves. The skill in convection‐permitting models is greater than for global models in the regions where Kelvin waves dominate, but the added value of limited‐area high‐resolution forecasts is hampered by the poor representation of Kelvin waves in the parent global model.

Convectively coupled Rossby–Gravity waves in a field campaign: How they are captured in reanalysis products

AbstractConvectively coupled equatorial waves are a significant source of atmospheric variability in the tropics. Current numerical models continue to struggle in simulating the coupled diabatic heating fields that are responsible for the development and maintenance of these waves. This study investigates how the diabatic fields associated with Mixed Rossby–Gravity waves (MRGs) are represented in four reanalysis products by using a unique observational dataset from the TRMM‐KWAJEX (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission‐Kwajalein Experiment) field campaign. These reanalyses include ERA5, Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). We found that all four reanalyses captured the MRG structures in winds and temperature, and to a lesser degree in the humidity field except in the boundary layer. However, only the ERA5 and MERRA reanalyses captured the gradual rise and succession of the diabatic heating from boundary layer turbulence, shallow convection, cumulus congestus, and deep convection within the waves. ERA5 is the only product that also captured the gradual rise of the subgrid‐scale vertical transport of moist static energy. All reanalysis products underestimated the diabatic heating from cumulus congestus. Results provide observational basis on what aspects of MRG can be trusted and what cannot in the reanalysis products.

Characteristics of atmospheric variables over the southern coast of West Java in the presence of Australian Monsoon and MRG waves

The characteristics of atmospheric variables over the southern coast of West Java in the presence of Australian Monsoon (AUM) and Mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) waves were investigated by conducting a dedicated radiosonde observation campaign from 26 to 29 September 2022 at Pameungpeuk Station (107.7°E, 7.6°S). The vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, relative humidity, and wind in the presence of the AUM and MRG waves were obtained and analyzed. The Global Navigation Satellite System - Radio Occultation (GNSS-RO) and the latest ECMWF climate reanalysis (ERA5) data were used to identify the MRG waves features using Hovmöller, space-time spectral, and wavelet analyses. Furthermore, spatial and time-series analyses were performed to study the wave propagation. The results showed the characteristics of atmospheric variables over Pameungpeuk Station in the presence of the AUM and MRG waves. We found that the presence of AUM significantly reduced the relative humidity, particularly in the region from 2 to 10 km altitude, and enhanced the average wind speed during the campaign compared to the wet season. Moreover, we found the reduction of low-level pressure, the enhancement of temperature and relative humidity in the mid-troposphere, and the weakening of the easterly and southerly winds during the dry phase approaching the wet phase of the MRG waves over the southern coast of West Java following the wave structure and propagation.

The first observational evidence of a mixed Rossby–gravity wave contribution to triggering the onset process of the South China Sea summer monsoon

Abstract Convectively coupled equatorial waves (Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby waves, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, tropical depression–type waves, and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves) are important components of the tropical atmosphere. It is already known that the first four kinds of equatorial waves can trigger the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM). This study provides observational evidence that an MRG wave contributes to triggering the onset process of the SCSSM in 2023, which took place very early (advanced by two weeks). Specifically, anomalous upper-tropospheric southerly winds first appeared in the equatorial central Pacific at the end of April. These southerly winds propagated westwards and downwards to the equatorial western Pacific and became an MRG wave. As this MRG wave continued to propagate westwards, the associated southwesterly winds contributed to the SCSSM onset. In addition to the MRG wave, the westerly phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation is located around the Maritime Continent, which also creates a favorable environment for the SCSSM onset in 2023. After addressing the important role of the MRG wave, this study completes the last piece of the puzzle of the impacts of equatorial waves on the monsoon onset.

Decomposition of Vertical Velocity and Its Zonal Wavenumber Kinetic Energy Spectra in the Hydrostatic Atmosphere

Abstract The spectrum of kinetic energy of vertical motions (VKE) is less well understood compared to the kinetic energy spectrum of horizontal motions (HKE). One challenge that has limited progress in describing the VKE spectrum is a lack of a unified approach to the decomposition of vertical velocities associated with the Rossby motions and inertia–gravity (IG) wave flows. This paper presents such a unified approach using a linear Rossby–IG vertical velocity normal-mode decomposition appropriate for a spherical, hydrostatic atmosphere. New theoretical developments show that for every zonal wavenumber k, the limit VKE is proportional to the total mechanical energy and to the square of the frequency of the normal mode. The theory predicts a VKE ∝ k−5 and a VKE ∝ k1/3 power law for the Rossby and IG waves, assuming a k−3 and a k−5/3 power law for the Rossby and IG HKE spectra, respectively. The Kelvin and mixed Rossby–gravity wave VKE spectra are predicted to follow k−1 and k−5 power laws, respectively. The VKE spectra for ERA5 data from August 2018 show that the Rossby VKE spectra approximately follow the predicted a k−5 power law. The expected k1/3 power law for the gravity wave VKE spectrum is found only in the SH midlatitude stratosphere for k ≈ 10–60. The inertial range IG VKE spectra in the tropical and midlatitude troposphere reflect a mixture of ageostrophic and convection-coupled dynamics and have slopes between −1 and −1/3, likely associated with too steep IG HKE spectra. The forcing by quasigeostrophic ageostrophic motions is seen as an IG VKE peak at synoptic scales in the SH upper troposphere, which gradually moves to planetary scales in the stratosphere. Significance Statement The spectrum of kinetic energy of vertical motions (VKE) is less well understood compared to the kinetic energy spectrum of horizontal motions. One challenge is a lack of a unified approach to the decomposition of vertical velocities associated with the Rossby motions and inertia–gravity (IG) wave flows. This paper presents such a unified approach using a linear Rossby–IG vertical velocity normal-mode decomposition appropriate for a spherical, hydrostatic atmosphere. It is shown that for every zonal wavenumber, the limit VKE is proportional to the total mechanical energy and to the square of the frequency of the normal mode. The theory is successfully applied to the ERA5 data. It leads the way for a more accurate computation of momentum fluxes.

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and global-scale tropical waves in Aeolus wind observations, radiosonde data, and reanalyses

Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the stratospheric tropical winds influences the global circulation over a wide range of latitudes and altitudes. Although it has strong effects on surface weather and climate, climate models have great difficulties in simulating a realistic QBO, especially in the lower stratosphere. Therefore, global wind observations in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) are of particular interest for investigating the QBO and the tropical waves that contribute significantly to its driving. In our work, we focus on the years 2018–2022 and investigate the QBO and different tropical wave modes in the UTLS region using global wind observations made by the Aeolus satellite instrument and three meteorological reanalyses: the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-5), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Further, we compare these data with observations of selected radiosonde stations. By comparison with Aeolus observations, we find that, on zonal average, the QBO in the lower stratosphere is well represented in all three reanalyses, with ERA-5 performing best. Averaged over the years 2018–2022, agreement between Aeolus and the reanalyses is better than 1 to 2 m s−1, with somewhat larger differences during some periods. Differently from zonal averages, radiosonde stations provide only local observations and are therefore biased by global-scale tropical waves, which limits their use as a QBO standard. While reanalyses perform well on zonal average, there can be considerable local biases between reanalyses and radiosondes. We also find that, in the tropical UTLS, zonal wind variances of stationary waves and the most prominent global-scale traveling equatorial wave modes, such as Kelvin waves, Rossby-gravity waves, and equatorial Rossby waves, are in good agreement between Aeolus and all three reanalyses (in most cases better than 20 % of the peak values in the UTLS). On zonal average, this supports the use of reanalyses as a reference for comparison with free-running climate models, while locally, certain biases exist, particularly in the QBO wind shear zones and around the 2019–2020 QBO disruption.

Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Forecasts of the Risk of Rainfall in Southeast Asia Dependent on Equatorial Waves

Abstract Equatorial waves are a major driver of widespread convection in Southeast Asia and the tropics more widely, a region in which accurate heavy rainfall forecasts are still a challenge. Conditioning rainfall over land on local equatorial wave phases finds that heavy rainfall can be between 2 and 4 times more likely to occur in Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Equatorial waves are identified in a global numerical weather prediction ensemble forecast [Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-G)]. Skill in the ensemble forecast of wave activity is highly dependent on region and time of year, although generally forecasts of equatorial Rossby waves and westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity waves are substantially more skillful than for the eastward-moving Kelvin wave. The observed statistical relationship between wave phases and rainfall is combined with ensemble forecasts of dynamical wave fields to construct hybrid dynamical–statistical forecasts of rainfall probability using a Bayesian approach. The Brier skill score is used to assess the skill of forecasts of rainfall probability. Skill in the hybrid forecasts can exceed that of probabilistic rainfall forecasts taken directly from MOGREPS-G and can be linked to both the skill in forecasts of wave activity and the relationship between equatorial waves and heavy rainfall in the relevant region. The results show that there is potential for improvements of forecasts of high-impact weather using this method as forecasts of large-scale waves improve.

Equatorial Waves and Superrotation in the Stratosphere of a Titan General Circulation Model

We investigate the characteristics of equatorial waves associated with the maintenance of superrotation in the stratosphere of a Titan general circulation model. A variety of equatorial waves are present in the model atmosphere, including equatorial Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby waves, and mixed Rossby–gravity waves. In the upper stratosphere, acceleration of superrotation is strongest around solstice and is due to interaction between equatorial Kelvin waves and Rossby-type waves in winter hemisphere midlatitudes. The existence of this “Rossby–Kelvin”-type wave appears to depend on strong meridional shear of the background zonal wind that occurs in the upper stratosphere at times away from the equinoxes. In the lower stratosphere, acceleration of superrotation occurs throughout the year and is partially induced by equatorial Rossby waves, which we speculate are generated by quasigeostrophic barotropic instability. Acceleration of superrotation is generally due to waves with phase speeds close to the zonal velocity of the mean flow. Consequently, they have short vertical wavelengths that are close to the model’s vertical grid scale and therefore likely to be not properly represented. We suggest that this may be a common issue among Titan general circulation models that should be addressed by future model development.

Dual-Frequency Wind-Driven Mixed Rossby–Gravity Waves in the Equatorial Indian Ocean

Abstract Frequency spectra of in situ meridional velocity measurements in the central equatorial Indian Ocean show two distinct peaks at “quasi biweekly” periods of 10–30 days. One is near the surface at frequencies of 0.06–0.1 cpd (periods of 10–17 days) and the other is in the pycnocline (∼100-m depth) at lower frequencies of 0.04–0.06 cpd (periods 17–25 days). Analysis of a wind-forced ocean general circulation model shows that variability in the two frequency bands represents wind-driven mixed Rossby–gravity waves. The waves share a similar horizontal structure, but the meridional scale of lower-frequency variability is about one-half of that of higher-frequency variations. Higher-frequency variability has its largest amplitude in the eastern basin while the lower-frequency variability has its largest amplitude in the central basin. The vertical wavelength of lower-frequency variability is smaller by a factor of 3–4 than that of higher-frequency variability. These results are consistent with expectations from linear mixed Rossby–gravity wave theory. Numerical simulations show that the primary driver of these waves is surface wind forcing in the central and eastern Indian Ocean and that dynamical instability does not play a major role in their generation. Significance Statement Spectra of meridional velocity in the central equatorial Indian Ocean from in situ measurements show two distinct peaks in the biweekly period band with different spatial structures. This study uses an ocean general circulation model to show that variability in these two bands is driven by surface winds that are themselves spatially structured. The variability in both period bands is consistent with linear mixed Rossby–gravity wave theory, but the spatial structures, including meridional trapping scale, vertical wavelength, and zonal distribution of energy, are very different.

Moist Thermodynamics of Convectively Coupled Waves over the Western Hemisphere

Abstract Convectively coupled waves (CCWs) over the Western Hemisphere are classified based on their governing thermodynamics. It is found that only the tropical depressions (TDs; TD waves) satisfy the criteria necessary to be considered a moisture mode, as in the Rossby-like wave found in an earlier study. In this wave, water vapor fluctuations play a much greater role in the thermodynamics than temperature fluctuations. Only in the eastward-propagating inertio-gravity (EIG) wave does temperature govern the thermodynamics. Temperature and moisture play comparable roles in all the other waves, including the Madden–Julian oscillation over the Western Hemisphere (MJO-W). The moist static energy (MSE) budget of CCWs is investigated by analyzing ERA5 data and data from the 2014/15 observations and modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon 2014/15) field campaign. Results reveal that vertical advection of MSE acts as a primary driver of the propagation of column MSE in westward inertio-gravity (WIG) wave, Kelvin wave, and MJO-W, while horizontal advection plays a central role in the mixed Rossby gravity (MRG) and TD wave. Results also suggest that cloud radiative heating and the horizontal MSE advection govern the maintenance of most of the CCWs. Major disagreements are found between ERA5 and GoAmazon. In GoAmazon, convection is more tightly coupled to variations in column MSE, and vertical MSE advection plays a more prominent role in the MSE tendency. These results along with substantial budget residuals found in ERA5 data suggest that CCWs over the tropical Western Hemisphere are not represented adequately in the reanalysis. Significance Statement In comparison to other regions of the globe, the weather systems that affect precipitation in the tropical Western Hemisphere have received little attention. In this study, we investigate the structure, propagation, and thermodynamics of convectively coupled waves that impact precipitation in this region. We found that slowly evolving tropical systems are “moisture modes,” i.e., moving regions of high humidity and precipitation that are maintained by interactions between clouds and radiation. The faster waves are systems that exhibit relatively larger fluctuations in temperature. Vertical motions are more important for the movement of rainfall in these waves. Last, we found that reanalysis and observations disagree over the importance of different processes in the waves that occurred over the Amazon region, hinting at potential deficiencies on how the reanalysis represents clouds in this region.

Seasonal and interannual variation of equatorial waves in ERA5 and GloSea5

AbstractThis study presents an analysis of the equatorial waves in the ERA5 reanalysis and forecasts of the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5), by projecting dynamical fields onto theoretical equatorial wave modes. The seasonal and interannual variation of equatorial wave activity in GloSea5 is evaluated against ERA5 waves. We find that in ERA5 the seasonal and spatial variations of eastward‐moving Kelvin wave activity are mainly determined by the ambient zonal flow, with wave activity being stronger in easterlies than westerlies. For the westward‐moving mixed Rossby–gravity waves and equatorial Rossby waves, the seasonal and spatial variations of the upper‐tropospheric wave activity are determined by both the ambient flow and extratropical forcing with stronger wave activity generally in the westerlies, whilst the lower‐tropospheric wave activity is related to the ambient flow and tropical convection. In GloSea5, the Kelvin wave activity is not well simulated in the upper troposphere, and in general the wave activity and wave‐related convective signal are too weak. In contrast, GloSea5 performs better for the westward‐moving equatorial waves, including their Doppler‐shifted eastward‐moving components, despite a significant overestimation in the Atlantic and African region. The phase of ENSO has a substantial impact on equatorial waves in both ERA5 and GloSea5. The mechanism of the impact is through changes in the ENSO‐related ambient flow, upper‐tropospheric extratropical forcing, and tropical convection. GloSea5 can capture the low‐level Kelvin wave–ENSO relationship reasonably well, with stronger wave activity over the eastern Pacific in El Niño, although the ENSO‐driven variation is too weak. The wave–ENSO relationship for westward‐moving waves is well represented in GloSea5, especially in the upper‐level eastern‐Pacific westerly duct region in the extended boreal winter and the low‐level Indo‐Pacific in all seasons. We conclude that in GloSea5 the representation of the wave–ENSO teleconnection is the key driver for the performance of interannual variability in the wave activity.