Alternative Risk Reduction Research Articles

Abstract 17620: Progressive Volume Retention Requiring an Increase in Loop Diuretic Use After Watchman Implant: A Retrospective Case Control Study

Introduction: Some patients with atrial fibrillation and high stroke risk cannot be anticoagulated. Percutaneous left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) is a potential alternative stroke risk reduction strategy. The LAA secretes ANP which has neurohormonal effects on fluid balance, but the effects of LAAO on clinical volume status remains uncertain. Goals: We expanded upon our prior data reporting a rise in diuretic use after LAAO by including a control cohort of patients without LAAO. Methods: Retrospective clinical data from patients who underwent LAAO at our institution from 2015-2020 with Watchman 2.5 (n=151, 38% female) and Watchman FLX patients from 2020-2022 (n=80, 31% female) were analyzed. A control group consisting of patients with atrial fibrillation who have not had LAAO were included (n=186, 38% female). Data extracted included demographics, loop diuretic dose, LVEF, and presence of HTN, CAD, PAD, DM, CKD, TIA/CVA. Progressive volume retention was defined as initiation or increase in loop diuretic dose within 12 months of LAAO, or within last 12 months from most recent cardiology visit for controls. Results: There was no significant difference in clinical variables between the two groups except for a significantly high proportion of TIA/CVA in LAAO group (p=0.003) and CKD and HF in the control group (p=0.031 and 0.004, respectively). Specifically, 49/231 (21.2%) of the LAAO cohort showed a rise in loop diuretic requirements compared to 27/186 (14.5%) of the controls (p = 0.078). There were 17/231 (7.4%) new loop diuretic prescriptions in the LAAO group compared to 6/186 (3.2%) for the controls (p = 0.066). In multivariable analyses controlling for age, sex, BMI, preimplant LVEF, prior HF, CKD, and LAAO, only age, prior HF, and LAAO predicted a rise in loop diuretic in subsequent year after implant. The strongest predictors were the presence of prior HF, OR 2.32 (95% CI 1.28-4.21, p = 0.005) and LAAO, OR 1.9 (95% CI 1.09-3.27, p = 0.023). Conclusions: These results suggest that LAAO is associated with an almost two-fold increased risk of clinically relevant volume retention. This risk appears to be highest among patients with a clinical history of HF. These findings may inform preimplantation discussions and post-LAAO expectations and clinical management.

Alternatives for sustained disaster risk reduction: A re-assessment.

The article finds that the shift towards the vulnerability paradigm has, to some extent, happened but took much longer in the French context than in the Spanish language and the Asian disaster literature. The article emphasises the need for a re-assessment of our practices and study of disasters, including reflections on what disasters are studied, how, by whom, and for whom. Eventually, alternatives for sustained disaster risk reduction now and in the future might include drawing upon more diverse ontologies and epistemologies that are pertinent locally, considering local people as co-researchers though participatory methods, and empowering local Francophone researchers to play a greater role in researching disasters and leading disaster risk reduction in their own localities.

Editorial

Kate Harding Women’s health continues to make headline news both in the UK and globally. There is increasing data on the safety of COVID-19 vaccinations in pregnancy, with benefits not just for the pregnant woman but also her yet-to-be-born baby (with decreased infant admission for COVID-19 in the first 6 months of life for those born to vaccinated mothers). In my practice, the message seems to be getting through, but we must still listen to those who are worried by vaccination and explore their fears individually. The impact of the pandemic on our patients is often hidden, with reduced attendance at screening programmes, prolonged waiting lists (particularly affecting those with ‘benign’ disease) and the effect on home life with potentially increased (and less recognised) domestic abuse; this last impact is discussed in this issue of TOG in a timely commentary by Dey and Thakar. The impact on those of us practicing in O&G is clear, too: we are all tired and yet being asked to work harder than ever. Please make use of whatever resources you have available to ensure that you maintain some balance in your life. Get outside for a walk in the spring air, relax with friends, family or just a good book, remind yourself of the times when you made a positive difference to your patients. We all need to look after ourselves if we are going to be able to look after others. As usual in TOG we have something for everyone and – I hope – learning for all. I particularly recommend the article on oophorectomy at the time of benign hysterectomy. This article challenges the previous belief that in women, approaching or beyond the menopause, oophorectomy at the time of hysterectomy was a sensible prophylactic procedure. Jakes et al. discuss in detail the function of the ovary post-menopause, the risk of malignant change later in life and alternative risk reduction procedures. These benefits and risks should be discussed with all women undergoing hysterectomy for benign conditions; perhaps an information leaflet could be produced based on this article to improve information sharing and the consent process. Brown et al. discuss the important topic of paraneoplastic syndromes, explaining the breadth of paraneoplastic presentations that may be associated with gynaecological malignancies. Greater awareness of these may both improve our ability to manage them and increase our level of ‘suspicion’ in patients with these complications, leading us to explore the possibility of underlying malignancy. While pregnancy may be a risky time for the fetus, there has been little focus on the outcome of babies born following high-risk pregnancy. Aiken and Dunkerton explore this in their article Impact of the intrauterine environment on future reproductive and metabolic health. Currently there is little we as clinicians can do during pregnancy to ‘improve’ the intrauterine environment, and the focus therefore needs to be on prepregnancy optimisation and possibly long-term follow-up of at-risk individuals. Thomson et al. have described the sadly common (and increasing) problem of opioid misuse in pregnancy. They discuss in detail the complications associated with opioid misuse and the need for a full multidisciplinary approach to supporting these often complex families. Yates et al. explore fetal cardiac arrhythmias. These are not an uncommon finding, occurring in up to 3% of all pregnancies, but few are pathological or associated with poor outcome. It is these babies that this article focuses on. The authors discuss in detail the management of the various tachy- and bradyarrhythmias, including both pharmacological treatments (usually given via the mother) and peripartum care (including the difficulty of intrapartum monitoring). While care plans may come from tertiary centres, we all need to understand them so we can support our women locally. Jo Morrison has written a comprehensive Spotlight on… gynaecological cancer, in which she highlights the breadth of papers in TOG on this subject in just the past 5 years. I strongly recommend this excellent overview not just for our trainees (and those doing their exams) but for anyone wanting an update on this subject.

Assessment of the flood risk reduction alternatives in municipalities of the upper Myjava and Teplica rivers, Slovakia

Assessment of the flood risk reduction alternatives in municipalities of the upper Myjava and Teplica rivers, Slovakia

Risk-Reducing Mastectomy and Reconstruction Following Prophylactic Breast Irradiation: Hope Sustained.

Simple SummaryIn this study we report the outcome of salvage mastectomy and reconstruction in 11 BRCA mutation carrier patients that participated in a clinical trial of prophylactic contralateral breast irradiation and suffered reoccurrences of breast cancer in either the ipsilateral or contralateral breast or elected to have the procedure for risk reduction. Patients’ satisfaction and physicians’ assessment of the cosmetic outcome were not inferior for previously irradiated compared to non-irradiated breasts. These results are encouraging and support continuing research as well as a discussion of risk-reduction alternatives besides mastectomy, including prophylactic breast irradiation, in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.Risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) is often advocated for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers who face a heightened lifetime risk of breast cancer. However, many carrier patients seek alternative risk-reducing measures. In a phase II nonrandomized trial, we previously reported that prophylactic irradiation to the contralateral breast among BRCA carriers undergoing breast-conserving treatment significantly reduced subsequent contralateral breast cancer. Herein, we report the outcome of salvage mastectomy and reconstruction in 11 patients that suffered reoccurrences of breast cancer in either the ipsilateral or contralateral breast or elected to have the procedure for risk reduction during the eight-year follow-up period. Patients’ satisfaction with the procedure and physicians’ assessment of the cosmetic outcome were not inferior for previously irradiated compared to non-irradiated breasts. Although the numbers are small, the results are encouraging and sustain hope in a challenging population. Our findings support continuing research as well as a discussion of risk-reduction alternatives besides mastectomy, including prophylactic breast irradiation, in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers.

Evaluation of Optimal and Coherent Risk-Capital Structures Under Adverse Market Outlooks Using Machine Learning Techniques

This paper broadens research literature associated with the assessment of modern portfolio risk management techniques by presenting a thorough modeling of nonlinear dynamic asset allocation and management under the supposition of illiquid and adverse market settings. This study analyses, from a fund manager’s perspective, the performance of liquidity adjusted risk modeling in obtaining optimal and coherent economic capital structures, subject to meaningful operational and financial constraints as specified by the fund manager. Specifically, the paper proposes a re-engineered and robust approach to optimal economic capital allocation, in a Liquidity-Adjusted Value at Risk (L-VaR) framework, and particularly from the perspective of trading portfolios that have both long and short trading positions and disallowing both pure long positions and borrowing constraints. This paper expands previous approaches by explicitly modeling the liquidation of trading portfolios using machine learning techniques, over the holding period, with the aid of an appropriate scaling of the multiple-assets’ L-VaR matrix along with GARCH-M technique to forecast conditional volatility and expected return. The key methodological contribution is a different and less conservative liquidity scaling factor than the conventional root-t multiplier. Moreover, in this paper, the authors develop a dynamic nonlinear portfolio selection model and an optimization algorithm which allocates both economic capital and trading assets by minimizing L-VaR subject to the constraints that the expected return, trading volume and liquidation horizon should meet the budget limits set by the fund manager. In addition, the paper illustrates how the modified L-VaR method can be used by an equity trading unit in a dynamic asset allocation framework for reporting risk exposure, optimizing economic capital, and assessing risk reduction alternatives. The empirical results strongly confirm the importance of enforcing financially and operationally meaningful nonlinear and dynamic constraints, when they are available, on the L-VaR optimization procedure.

Determinants of serum adiponectin levels: a cross-sectional study.

To review non-surgical prevention strategies in women with hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndromes. Women with a gBRCA1 or 2 mutations face a high cumulative breast and ovarian cancer risk. While bilateral mastectomy (PBM) and bilateral salpingo-oophrectomy (PBSO) profoundly reduce the respective cancer risks, they are also associated with considerable side effects. There is therefore an urgent need for alternative and non-surgical risk reduction options. Tamoxifen and aromatase inhibitors have both been evaluated in secondary prevention, but their benefit in primary prevention is currently unknown in BRCA mutation carriers. In addition, their use is compromised by their side effect profile which makes them less appealing for a use in chemoprevention. Denosumab is a well-tolerated osteoprotective drug, which has been demonstrated to have a potential preventive effect particularly in BRCA1-deficient models in vitro. The prospectively randomized double-blind BRCA-P trial is currently investigating the preventative effect of denosumab in healthy BRCA1 germ line mutation carriers.

A Multi-Scalar Approach for Assessing Costs and Benefits of Risk Reduction Alternatives for the People and the City: Cases of Three Resettlements in Visakhapatnam, India

Resettlement undertaken with the objective of reducing disaster risk often narrowly focuses only on reducing hazard exposure. However, when resettlements are analyzed from the perspective of holistic development outcomes, including livelihood conditions, health implications, social cohesion and employment opportunities, they are often found to be lacking. Apart from this contrast between considerations of disaster risk and everyday socio-economic risks at the household or settlement level, resettlement programs also lack a clear focus on achieving wider regional development goals including poverty reduction, economic growth and environmental protection. This relates to the sectorization of attitudes to disaster risk and the lack of integration with development concerns across multiple actors involved. This paper offers an approach: (1) to systematize costs and benefits; and using these (2) to assess policy alternatives that could maximize the beneficial outcomes for the resettlement intervention as well as improve overall sustainability for the urban areas they are set in. This paper first situates “risks” within a larger context of structural risks, and then uses the framework of asset accumulation to recognize the changes experienced by the people as costs or benefits. For this, it goes beyond the resettlement site to a broader regional perspective of the city and reflects on the long-term historical trends as well as future risks created by the intervention in the context of urbanization processes and increasing climate variability. To illustrate the use of this approach in assessing intervention alternatives, the paper analyzes three empirical case studies representing in-situ, voluntary and involuntary resettlements from urban Andhra Pradesh in India.

Water Supply Delivery Failures—A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Economic Losses and Risk Reduction Options

Access to a reliable water supply is central for a well-functioning society. However, water supply systems are subject to a wide range of threats which may affect their ability to provide water to society. This paper presents a novel risk assessment approach that enables thorough analyses of economic losses and associated uncertainties under a range of water supply disruption scenarios. The purpose is to avoid sub-optimization when prioritizing between risk reduction measures, by integrating the full range of possible outcomes from low to high probability events. By combining risk analysis with cost-benefit analysis, additional information is provided on measures for leveraging investments in managing and reducing the risks. This enables the identification of the most economically profitable risk reduction alternatives and enables decision makers to build strategic capacity for operating in difficult and uncertain futures. The presented approach is exemplified on the island of Gotland, one of the most water scarce areas of Sweden.

Spreading the Use of Economic Methods in Coastal Risk Management: A Simple but Insightful “Calculator”

Navas, F.; Malvarez, G.; Penning-Rowsell, E., and Parker, D.J., 2020. Spreading the use of economic methods in coastal risk management: A simple but insightful calculator. In: Malvarez, G. and Navas, F. (eds.), Global Coastal Issues of 2020. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 95, pp. 1217–1222. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. European Directives, such as the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) require that decision makers include objective methodologies, such as benefit-cost analysis, in their assessments of flood risk reduction measures. Methodologies to establish a sustainable knowledge framework addressing the costs and benefits of prevention and response to coastal hazards resulting from hydro-meteorological, hydrographic and other natural events and processes (e.g. flooding, beach erosion, cliff erosion, sea level rise) are not homogeneously implemented in the European Union. Until now, investment decisions in this field have been made more on local political imperatives than logical economic risk assessments. This paper aims to overcome some these limitations by demonstrating the usefulness of a simplified benefit-cost methodology and its application to a coastal case where a number of alternative flood risk reduction schemes are considered. The method allows the economically optimal scheme to be identified. The method is discussed within the context of generally poorly comprehended aspects; issues presented in coupling benefit-cost methods with vulnerability and related assessments; and key data uncertainties.

Accounting for Unexpected Risk Events in Drinking Water Systems

Unexpected risk events in drinking water systems, such as heavy rain or manure spill accidents, can cause waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal disease. Using a scenario-based approach, these unexpected risk events were included in a risk-based decision model aimed at evaluating risk reduction alternatives. The decision model combined quantitative microbial risk assessment and cost–benefit analysis and investigated four risk reduction alternatives. Two drinking water systems were compared using the same set of risk reduction alternatives to illustrate the effect of unexpected risk events. The first drinking water system had a high pathogen base load and a high pathogen log10 reduction in the treatment plant, whereas the second drinking water system had a low pathogen base load and a low pathogen Log10 reduction in the treatment plant. Four risk reduction alternatives were evaluated on their social profitability: (A1) installation of pumps and back-up power supply, to remove combined sewer overflows; (A2) installation of UV treatment in the drinking water treatment plant; (A3) connection of 25% of the OWTSs in the catchment area to the WWTP; and (A4) a combination of A1–A3. Including the unexpected risk events changed the probability of a positive net present value for the analysed alternatives in the decision model and the alternative that is likely to have the highest net present value. The magnitude of the effect of unexpected risk events is dependent on the local preconditions in the drinking water system. For the first drinking water system, the unexpected risk events increase risk to a lesser extent compared to the second drinking water system. The main conclusion was that it is important to include unexpected risk events in decision models for evaluating microbial risk reduction, especially in a drinking water system with a low base load and a low pathogen log10 reduction in the drinking water treatment plant.

Non-surgical prevention strategies in women with hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndromes.

Objectives To review non-surgical prevention strategies in women with hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndromes. Content Women with a gBRCA1 or 2 mutations face a high cumulative breast and ovarian cancer risk. While bilateral mastectomy (PBM) and bilateral salpingo-oophrectomy (PBSO) profoundly reduce the respective cancer risks, they are also associated with considerable side effects. There is therefore an urgent need for alternative and non-surgical risk reduction options. Tamoxifen and aromatase inhibitors have both been evaluated in secondary prevention, but their benefit in primary prevention is currently unknown in BRCA mutation carriers. In addition, their use is compromised by their side effect profile which makes them less appealing for a use in chemoprevention. Summary and outlook Denosumab is a well-tolerated osteoprotective drug, which has been demonstrated to have a potential preventive effect particularly in BRCA1-deficient models in vitro. The prospectively randomized double-blind BRCA-P trial is currently investigating the preventative effect of denosumab in healthy BRCA1 germ line mutation carriers.

Quantitative risk assessment of slow-moving landslides from the viewpoint of decision-making: A case study of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China

A large number of landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China have been reactivated by reservoir impoundment since 2003. Many of them were activated as slow-moving landslides, which caused severe damages to buildings and also pose a significant risk for residents. In this study, a quantitative procedure has been proposed to analyze and assess the landslide risks to buildings and lives by considering the Outang landslide as an example. First, the landslide segmentation was done by considering the sliding history, macroscopic deformation, and monitoring data of displacement. The SLOPE/W and SEEP/W modules of the Geostudio software were used to establish the geotechnical model and analyze the seepage, respectively. Under different scenarios of annual reservoir regulation and return period of rainfall events as determined by Pearson type III (P3) distribution, failure probabilities of every segmented part were obtained with Monte Carlo simulation. Second, the vulnerability of the elements at risk was quantitatively estimated using a model that incorporated the landslide intensity and resistance of the exposed elements. Then, through the analysis and comparison of scenario-based landslide risks, the evolution of landslide risk influenced by different combinations of triggering factors (i.e., reservoir water level and rainfall) was examined. Finally, landslide risks before and after the implementation of several risk reduction alternatives were compared to determine the benefits of alternatives. The risk maps displayed that the risk was the greatest for the scenario of the rapid decline of the reservoir water level in combination with heavy rainfall; the corresponding total annual economic and population risks of the landslide were estimated in 96.88 million ¥ and 216 lives, respectively. In this scenario, the economic risk level of the west deformation zone was the highest, and the total population risk was the highest in the lower unit of the landslide. Results of benefit-cost analysis suggested that real-time monitoring and resident relocation seem to be the most effective alternatives for risk reduction concerning the Outang landslide.

Exploring urban risk reduction strategy based on spatial statistics and scenario planning

Cities with dense population are vulnerable to disasters as they may cause losses of human life and property. Mitigation is most effective for reducing the risks of communities as well as creating more resilient communities in cities. However, exploring the spatial prioritization for resources investment and evaluating the relative efficiency of different alternative risk reduction strategies are still challenges. In this study, we proposed an innovative methodology framework for exploring risk reduction strategies in large-scale urban areas. GIS spatial statistics technique is introduced to investigate global regional risk pattern as well as identify local risk hot spots in spatial scale, and scenario planning paradigm is used to explore the dynamically changing regional risk pattern and risk hot spots in temporal scale due to risk reduction. Moreover, scenario sets were developed to evaluate and analyze the effectiveness and cost of different alternative risk reduction strategies for trade-off. We then applied the methodology to a typical urban district of north China to demonstrate its utility. The results successfully obtained reveal the necessity of concerning dynamically changing nature of regional risk spatial pattern during the risk reduction process. The findings show that the methodology framework proposed in this study has potential to provide decision support for guiding future urban risk reduction and hazard mitigation planning. This work offers new perspectives and valuable demonstration on promoting urban risk management with the integration of emerging GIS spatial statistics and scenario planning technique.

The Synergy Between Flood Risk Reduction and Spatial Quality in Coastal Cities

This paper describes the application of a research-by-design approach that aims for a combined approach for spatial quality enhancementand flood risk reduction, with spatial quality as a decisive exante criterion. In order to achieve this, as in the ‘Room for the River’ programme, a dual flood risk and spatial quality objective is set. This research was performed as part of the ‘Atelier for Coastal Quality’, in which The Hague’s seaside area of ‘Scheveningen’ was selected as a case study location.Here, the future reinforcement of the sea barrier could be combined with addressing the challenges of improving spatial quality, among which are: identity, vitality, attractiveness, and connectivity. A research-by-design approach was deployed in which a single parameter was systematically varied (the flood risk intervention) while fixing other parameters (such as the context and the objectives from a spatial and flood risk perspective). After exploring and defining both the flood risk and spatial objectives for the area, three alternative flood risk reduction strategies (based on three alternative interventions: a boulevard, dunes, and a perpendicular dam) for Scheveningen were developed. In order to facilitate the integrated design process, ‘Delta Ateliers’, in which multidisciplinary experts and stakeholders interactively worked together, were successfully deployed. As a result, it became apparent that the inclusion of a prominent spatial objective is not the main key to including spatial quality as an ex-ante decisive criterion in defining flood risk strategies. The three proposed flood risk reduction interventions had all been successfully embedded with regard to meeting the prescribed spatial criteria, thereby disqualifying the spatial aspects as selection criteria for the flood risk intervention. However, as part of the study, a supporting research-by-design exercise was performed in which three different locations for the positioning of the perpendicular dam, were explored from a spatial perspective. Here, it seemed that providing interchangeable (similarly effective) interventions at different locations did result in very different potentials for spatial quality, thus allowing spatial quality to become a decisive selection criterion. The ‘Room for the River’ principle, which appeared essential in order to include spatial quality as a decisive ex-ante criterion, is the creation of alternative exchangeable options for the flood risk reduction interventions at different locations. Based on these findings, the research-by-design approach deployed is extended to not only systematically test different interventions, but to also systematically vary the location of the intervention. The ‘Delta Atelier’ multidisciplinary workshop approach is continued within the remaining research.

The Synergy Between Flood Risk Reduction and Spatial Quality in Coastal Cities

This paper describes the application of a research-by-design approach that aims for a combined approach for spatial quality enhancementand flood risk reduction, with spatial quality as a decisive exante criterion. In order to achieve this, as in the ‘Room for the River’ programme, a dual flood risk and spatial quality objective is set. This research was performed as part of the ‘Atelier for Coastal Quality’, in which The Hague’s seaside area of ‘Scheveningen’ was selected as a case study location.Here, the future reinforcement of the sea barrier could be combined with addressing the challenges of improving spatial quality, among which are: identity, vitality, attractiveness, and connectivity. A research-by-design approach was deployed in which a single parameter was systematically varied (the flood risk intervention) while fixing other parameters (such as the context and the objectives from a spatial and flood risk perspective). After exploring and defining both the flood risk and spatial objectives for the area, three alternative flood risk reduction strategies (based on three alternative interventions: a boulevard, dunes, and a perpendicular dam) for Scheveningen were developed. In order to facilitate the integrated design process, ‘Delta Ateliers’, in which multidisciplinary experts and stakeholders interactively worked together, were successfully deployed. As a result, it became apparent that the inclusion of a prominent spatial objective is not the main key to including spatial quality as an ex-ante decisive criterion in defining flood risk strategies. The three proposed flood risk reduction interventions had all been successfully embedded with regard to meeting the prescribed spatial criteria, thereby disqualifying the spatial aspects as selection criteria for the flood risk intervention. However, as part of the study, a supporting research-by-design exercise was performed in which three different locations for the positioning of the perpendicular dam, were explored from a spatial perspective. Here, it seemed that providing interchangeable (similarly effective) interventions at different locations did result in very different potentials for spatial quality, thus allowing spatial quality to become a decisive selection criterion. The ‘Room for the River’ principle, which appeared essential in order to include spatial quality as a decisive ex-ante criterion, is the creation of alternative exchangeable options for the flood risk reduction interventions at different locations. Based on these findings, the research-by-design approach deployed is extended to not only systematically test different interventions, but to also systematically vary the location of the intervention. The ‘Delta Atelier’ multidisciplinary workshop approach is continued within the remaining research.

Seismic performance of alternative risk-reduction retrofit strategies to support decision making

How can we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of retrofit interventions aiming at reducing the seismic vulnerability of an existing building? What level of shaking intensity should the retrofitted building sustain? These are open questions affecting either the pre-earthquake prevention, the post-earthquake emergency and the reconstruction phases. The (mis)conception that the cost of retrofit interventions would increase linearly with the level of safety required in designing the intervention often discourages stakeholders to consider alternative retrofit options. As a result, a minimum (in some cases prescribed by-law) level of safety is often targeted, leading in some cases to no-action. Furthermore, the performance measure enforcing owners to take action is generally evaluated following a deterministic approach. When the assessment does not directly reflect, even in simplified terms, epistemic uncertainties and aleatory randomness, it can result in misleading confidence on the expected performance. The present study aims at contributing to the delicate decision-making process of retrofitting existing structures, by developing a framework to assist stakeholders with the evaluation of the actual improvement of the performance, expressed in terms of reduction of collapse probability, of alternative strategies of intervention as well as targeted retrofit levels. With reference to a pre-1970 case study building located in New Zealand, alternative retrofit solutions are considered, targeting different levels of performance, and the probability of reaching collapse when considering a set of ground-motions is evaluated, providing a correlation between the deterministic safety index adopted in the design phase (named "Percentage of New Building Standard" adopting New Zealand regulations) and the expected annual probability of collapse.

Introduction to the RISC-KIT web based management guide for DRR in European coastal zones

This paper presents a new approach to guiding coastal stakeholders about making informed decisions about Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures and alternatives. As part of the RISC-KIT project and tool box, the paper presents a holistic DRR measure approach including the biophysical environment, governance aspects and practical examples from coastal areas in Europe and elsewhere. The guide (see: www.coastal-management.eu) is addressed to a wide variety of coastal stakeholders with a different level of knowledge about DRR measures with the aim to provide guidance and information. The paper gives an overview of the overall structure of the guide.

Smart Beta Strategy in Korean Stock Market

Recently, due to its passive property, the smart beta has become one of the most interest topics in searching the alpha. In this paper, we attempt to show whether the smart beta strategy generate abnormal excess return, in tradition, which are known as the exclusive property of active fund. Further, we attempt to verify the key drivers of the alpha in the smart beta portfolios. For this purpose, we categorize various smart beta strategies by their scheme for asset picking and risk reduction. Then, based on our categorization, we evaluate and analyze the performance of smart beta strategy in perspective. Our empirical analyses show following results: applying alternative risk reduction scheme to traditional market index portfolio would results in enhanced efficiency; however, without combining any asset picking scheme, the performance of the smart beta portfolio seems explained by the Fama-French 3 factor. Our results lead us to conjecture that it is not the portfolio weighting scheme alone but in association with asset selection scheme that generate significant alpha in the smart beta strategy. In actual practice, our results imply that any passive fund may succeed in seeking the alpha without active strategy, thereby avoiding the risk of market timing and saving the management cost.

Implications from substance flow analysis, supply chain and supplier’ risk evaluation in iron and steel industry in Mainland China

Supply risk evaluation is intended for adjusting industrial structure, and provides limited options to reduce supply risk. The links between supply chain and industrial structure deserve better understanding. In this way, the industrial activities can be managed to change industrial structure from supply risk. We took the anthropogenic iron in Mainland China into our case study. The comprehensive evaluation was modeled to tackle the problems of China's iron and steel industry. From the life cycle perspective, we found that extending iron and steel supply chain would digest the oversupply and reduce the excessive emission, the main problems affecting on the steel ratio for electric arc furnaces were steel scrap shortage and relatively high electrovalence, and Fe content of the social stock basically resided in construction industry which significantly influenced on the flow of steel products and steel and iron products. More attention should be paid to the factors of export price, resource allocation efficiency, financing capability and outdated capacity, strict inspection and prevention should be taken to these risks. A comprehensive picture of several customized risk reduction strategies was constructed for those problems. Of the strategies, China’ risks of iron and steel industry could be reduced if the existing industrial structure were adjusted on the basis of the substance flow networks and global iron and steel industrial chains. Based on the result, recommendations were made in this paper, aiming to contribute important reference information for the industrial metabolism, resource management, and recycling of iron and steel industry in Mainland China. The proposed methodology, integrating suppliers’ risk evaluation based on supply chain and substance flow analysis offers a quick and convenient examination on more comprehensive risk reduction alternatives. Further dedicated risk evaluation might be required to estimate the more precise risks for the iron and steel industries or other industries that were pre-identified as the outdated.