Risk Of Poverty Research Articles

No one-size-fits-all solution. Effects of social policies on in-work poverty

Abstract The paper studies effects of social policies on in-work poverty risks, distinguishing between measures that either intervene in labour market processes - i.e. predistribution policies - or redistribute towards those with low incomes. The analyses use data from EU-SILC and macro-level indicators from various sources to estimate general as well as household-typespecific effects using longitudinal methods. Results reveal important differences between specific policies: increasing minimum wages contributes to reducing low-wage risks, but has no significant effect on in-work poverty risks. In contrast, there is a negative effect of strict employment protection legislation across almost all household types on in-work poverty, which is consistent with the positive role this measure plays for supporting earnings that are sufficient to provide not only for one person, but also potential dependants in the household. With respect to redistributional policies, both unemployment benefits and benefits to low earners reduce poverty due to their contribution to public poverty-reduction. However, whereas unemployment benefits only reduce in-work poverty among couple households, benefits to low earners mainly contribute to lower poverty risks among employed single parents. Overall, the results underscore that predistributional and redistributional as well as universal and targeted interventions cannot easily substitute each other.

Multilevel Analysis of Factors Underlying in‐Work Poverty: Evidence From Türkiye

ABSTRACTIn‐work poverty is a prevalent phenomenon in many countries and creates significant challenges from various aspects. This study investigates the underlying factors of in‐work poverty utilizing Türkiye as a case study and using the latest available (2022) microdata from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC). It first measures the at risk of poverty or social exclusion rate (AROPE) among the working population, revealing that 22.13% of workers suffer from poverty and there is a considerable sectoral variation. Subsequently, the underlying demographic characteristics, along with job‐related and regional factors of in‐work poverty, are examined through multilevel logistic regression analysis. Among demographic characteristics, being older and having higher education levels are associated with lower probabilities of in‐work poverty, while household dependency raises this risk. Analyzing the association between in‐work poverty and job characteristics indicates that public sector employment and social security registration lower the probability of in‐work poverty. Furthermore, compared to the self‐employed, employers are much less likely to be poor, while employees are more vulnerable. Finally, living in a region with a higher GDP per capita lowers the probability of working poverty, whereas regions with higher Gini indices, unemployment rates, and Syrian refugee rates are associated with higher poverty risks.

Nexus of clean energy internet with energy poverty and health: Evidence from China.

Nexus of clean energy internet with energy poverty and health: Evidence from China.

Assessing poverty dynamics in social grant dependent household: a comprehensive analysis

Poverty persists in many countries especially those in the sub-Saharan African region where the levels have been getting worse. The extent of poverty has been worsened in the last 5 years by the many exogenous factors that have gone beyond the control of individual countries. From Covid-19 in late 2019 to early 2020 going all the way to 2021, to Ukraine Russia war that disrupted global supply chains, to the war between Israel and Hamas that have left countries divided. Several countries have also witnessed natural disasters like cyclones and heavy rains and tidal waves that have caused irreparable damage to livelihoods. In the wake of these external factors over and above country specific a number of governments introduced social grants as safety nets to help households in danger of abject poverty. This study assesses the dynamics of poverty within social grant-dependent households in South Africa, exploring the extent to which social grants mitigate poverty across varying levels of deprivation. Using 2023 data from a representative national survey, the analysis applies conditional probability models to examine the influence of social grants on household poverty risk, considering three distinct poverty thresholds: the Food Poverty Line, the Lower Bound Poverty Line, and the Upper Bound Poverty Line. Findings reveal that households receiving grants experience a statistically significant reduction in poverty risk, particularly at the lower poverty levels, underscoring the effectiveness of grants as a targeted poverty alleviation tool. However, unemployment, single-headed households, and racial disparities are found to compound poverty risk, pointing to the need for an integrated approach that combines social grants with employment and empowerment programs. Female-headed households are especially vulnerable, showing a higher likelihood of poverty across all poverty lines, likely due to factors such as lower income and greater caregiving responsibilities. The study concludes that while social grants play a critical role in reducing poverty risk, additional measures are essential for addressing the underlying socioeconomic disparities that affect poverty dynamics. Recommendations include increasing grant values to match inflation, expanding job creation efforts, and implementing targeted support programs for the most vulnerable demographics, particularly single-parent and female-headed households. These measures would enhance the efficacy of social grants and support long-term poverty reduction efforts in South Africa.

Toward Better Measurement of Financial Risk Protection in Health Expenditure: The Case of Chile.

Toward Better Measurement of Financial Risk Protection in Health Expenditure: The Case of Chile.

Disentangling the Consequences of Latino Immigrants' Unauthorized Status for the Health of Their U.S.-Born Children.

Immigrants' legal status has been described as a social determinant of health that shapes health outcomes through multiple channels. Furthermore, legal status matters not only for immigrants themselves, but also for their family members, including their U.S.-born citizen children. Nonetheless, few studies have empirically disentangled the possible mediating mechanisms through which parents' legal status shapes their children's health. This paper applies path analysis to data from the 2014-2019 California Health Interview Survey to examine how Latino immigrant parents' unauthorized status impacts the health of their U.S.-born citizen children. I consider how the effects of parents' unauthorized status for their children's health are mediated by children's healthcare access, household food insecurity, family income, and parents' own physical and mental health. I find that parents' unauthorized status has a negative but indirect effect on their children's health through increasing household risk of poverty and food insecurity. These results have significant implications for the well-being of millions of children in the United States who have legally vulnerable parents.

‘Our options are limited, so we get married:’ girls, early marriage and health risks in rural Zimbabwe

This article explores the intersection of poverty, sociocultural norms, religious beliefs, and health risks in shaping adolescent girls’ perceptions of early marriage in rural Zimbabwe. Based on qualitative interviews with girls aged 12 to 17, the study highlights how economic hardship and gendered power dynamics frame early marriage as a survival strategy, with male authority figures often sanctioning it. Sociocultural norms, such as puberty marking a girl’s readiness for marriage, reinforce this view, while religious beliefs and norms, especially within the Apostolic Faith Church, increase vulnerability by promoting sexual purity and allowing church leaders to control marital decisions. Early marriage exposes girls to significant health risks, including limited access to maternal healthcare. The article concludes by advocating for comprehensive interventions to address the structural, cultural, and health-related drivers of early marriage, empowering girls through education, access to health services, and support to make informed choices.

:Quantitative Models for Poverty Alleviation Using Transactional, Educational, and Housing Data

Abstract: This research presents a comprehensive data-driven framework for poverty alleviation in the Indian context by integrating transactional behavior, educational outcomes, and housing stability into predictive analytical models. Recognizing the limitations of traditional income-based or survey-driven poverty assessments, this study leverages multivariate regression, machine learning classifiers, and unsupervised clustering techniques to generate granular poverty risk scores and identify hidden vulnerability patterns across Indian states. Using simulated data across 20 states, the models demonstrate high accuracy and interpretability, enabling targeted classification of households and regions at risk. Geospatial mapping reveals concentrated poverty risk in states like Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal, offering insights for region-specific interventions. The proposed approach provides a scalable, policy-relevant toolkit for central and state governments, NGOs, and development agencies to implement real-time, precision-driven strategies for inclusive development and welfare distribution. Keywords: poverty alleviation, India, transactional data, educational outcomes, housing insecurity, machine learning, data-driven policy, risk scoring, geospatial poverty mapping, regional inequality, multidimensional poverty, welfare analytics, socioeconomic modeling, government planning poverty modeling, data integration, machine learning, transactional data, educational data, housing insecurity, poverty prediction, social welfare analytics, geospatial poverty mapping, policy simulation, multidimensional poverty, interpretability, intervention targeting, real-time poverty monitoring

Multidimensional poverty at the epicentre: analysing socio-religious disparities in Uttar Pradesh, India

PurposeThis study aims to present a comprehensive analysis of multidimensional poverty in Uttar Pradesh, revealing specific deprivation faced by various social and religious groups. It identifies poverty risks and changes in deprivations to assess inter-group disparities among social and religious groups, offering insights for targeted policies.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses the updated and harmonised global multidimensional poverty index methodology, using unit-level records from past three National Family Health Surveys conducted between 2005–2006 and 2019–2021. This study used multivariate regression analysis to examine how social, religious, household and regional factors interact to influence deprivation.FindingsScheduled castes and Muslims face disproportionately high poverty levels and intense deprivations, surpassing their population shares significantly. Inter-group poverty differences are narrowing, but Muslims experience slower improvement. Rural–urban poverty disparities persist, notably among less disadvantageous groups. Deprivational challenges persist in education-related indicators, undernutrition, sanitation, cooking fuel and housing. Scheduled castes experience significant deprivation across all ten indicators, while both Hindus and Muslims are highly deprived in housing and cooking fuel indicators. Muslims face persistent educational challenges. Marginalised groups (SCs, Muslims), larger households, households living in rural areas and female-headed households experience higher deprivation; non-nuclear families and bank account access are associated with lower deprivation.Originality/valueIn addressing Uttar Pradesh’s significant role in global poverty, this study fills a vital gap in the literature. As the state pursues social and economic progress, the findings of the study will provide a roadmap for a more equitable future.

Low-pay work and the risk of poverty: a dynamic analysis for European countries

Abstract This paper explores how householders’ and partners' low-pay conditions affect the risk of poverty of European households. We use 2016–2019 longitudinal European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data, model poverty and labour market outcomes, and account for possible endogeneity of low-pay work in the poverty equation. Low-pay work is defined on gross hourly wage basis. We find that low-pay work increases the risk of poverty compared to high-pay conditions. Notably, when compared to non-employment, the effect of low-pay work on poverty differs between householders and partners. The effect tends to be stronger for the former and smaller for the latter, which stresses the leading role of householders in income formation and the added-worker role of partners in households. The risk of poverty for low-pay workers is even reinforced by their higher probability of being employed in job positions with fewer annual working hours, such as part-time and temporary contracts. The magnitude of low-pay effects on poverty appears to be associated with institutions capable of sustaining the wage floor, earnings and income inequalities, and the generosity of social transfers. We find evidence of feedback effects from poverty on future labour market outcomes, suggesting a self-reinforcing mechanism between poverty and poor labour conditions, which along with limited upward mobility in the labour markets, may lead societies toward persistent income segmentation.

Large families: The forgotten poverty risk and policy relevance

Large families: The forgotten poverty risk and policy relevance

Determinants of Poverty in Informal Economy of Nepal: Evidence form the FGT Poverty Index

Background: Even though poverty has decreased in recent years, it is still challenging in Nepal, the rate of decrease is slower. Informal labor accounts for the bulk of urban livelihoods in the research area, and little is known about their susceptibility to poverty and related risk factors. To fill this gap this study examined the prevalence and major determinants of poverty in urban families at different household income quantiles levels in six metropolises of Nepal. Methods: The determinants of poverty in the informal economy have been measured using the FGT poverty index. Similarly, the stabilized indicator (obtained by dividing per-capita income by the poverty line) has been used to examine the determinants of poverty. The inflation-adjusted poverty line income based on NLSS (2010/11) has been used as a reference. Results: The determinants of urban informal household poverty were total family size, education, and working experience of the respondents. The study found that poverty incidence, gap, and severity were significantly higher in Lalitpur Metropolitan City compared to other five metropolitan cities during the study period. This study identified age, education, household size and experience as essential variables. Among them, the age of the respondents and household size are potential measures to reduce poverty in the urban informal sector. This empirical enquiry has revealed that household size is negatively related to poverty incidence. In contrast, the age of respondents is found to be positively related to poverty incidence. Conclusion: The study provides policy suggestions for supporting informal economic activities and employment in Nepal, beneficial to local, provincial, and federal governments, and applicable to other contexts with similar informal economy and poverty. Novelty: This study investigates at the factors that contribute to poverty in urban informal families. It reveals how substantial an impact poverty levels have on variables like family size, education, and employment experience. Household size and respondents age are important factors that impact the incidence of poverty.

Rethinking poverty: An econometric analysis of the role of ICT poverty in a global context

Rethinking poverty: An econometric analysis of the role of ICT poverty in a global context

Bearing the Burden: Understanding the Multifaceted Impact of Energy Poverty on Women

Energy poverty has evolved into a topic of global concern affecting both developing and developed countries. Energy poverty deprives the potential of numerous women to participate in family, communal, and economic activities. While energy poverty is a commonly studied subject, the existing literature often overlooks its gender dimension, specifically the effects on women. This systematic review aims to fill the current research lacuna by shedding light on the multifaceted consequences faced by women due to energy poverty. To this end, numerous articles from Scopus and Web of Science are fully analysed. The findings demonstrate the impacts on multiple aspects of women’s lives, such as health, emotional well-being, income, increased workload, and the perpetuation of inequality. Though the challenges seem a bit different in the Global South and North from a boarder perspective, coherent policies that enhance women’s empowerment with economic opportunities could minimize the potential risk of energy poverty. The review underlines the urgency of integrating a gender perspective, emphasising the necessity of interdisciplinary methods that connect energy and gender studies differently in both the Global North and South. The finding also highlights the role of socio-economic conditions, cultural norms, and the division of labour in increasing women’s vulnerability. This review highlights the crucial significance of gender-inclusive approaches in understanding and tackling energy poverty.

Nonfarm Employment and Household Vulnerability to Food Poverty in Rural Cameroon

ABSTRACT: Developing countries' economies are largely dominated by the agricultural sector, with several rural households relying on farming for their livelihoods. However, the nonfarm economy has gained prominence in complementing farm incomes. This paper examines the implications of nonfarm employment for household vulnerability to food poverty in rural Cameroon using the most recent three waves of Cameroon household consumption surveys. Specifically, the paper examines the evolution of food poverty indices by nonfarm participation status over the period 2001-2014, assesses the effect of nonfarm employment on vulnerability to food poverty and investigates the evolution of vulnerability to food poverty by nonfarm participation status over the period 2001-2014. To achieve the set objectives, the paper employs a battery of statistical and econometric techniques. Specifically, it employs the FGT class of poverty measures to compute food poverty indices. The paper addresses the endogeneity of nonfarm employment status using the Control function technique, which exploits the estimated probit reduced form equation to compute a generalized residual. This residual is subsequently included in the food expenditure generating function as an additional variable. The augmented food expenditure model is then estimated using the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) technique to assess the determinants of expected food expenditure and compute and decompose the vulnerability indices. Results reveal that over the structural period 2001-2014, changes in food poverty were significantly more wide-spread, deeper and severer among non-diversified households compared to diversifiers We further find that nonfarm employment significantly increases households' expected food consumption spending, which is equivalent to reducing their vulnerability to food poverty. Results further indicate that vulnerability to food poverty increased among non-diversifiers over 2001-2014, meanwhile among diversifiers, no significant change was observed. These findings highlight the importance of interventions aimed at encouraging rural households to diversify into nonfarm activities as a strategy for mitigating the risk of food poverty. By promoting economic diversification, such interventions hold promise in bolstering resilience against food insecurity among rural populations. Thus, policymakers and development practitioners could prioritize initiatives that facilitate access to nonfarm employment opportunities.

Evaluating the impact of lifestyle changes: a scenario-based analysis for Europe’s residential buildings sector

Abstract Evidence suggests that lifestyle changes are a crucial aspect in the design of decarbonisation strategies towards the achievement of Paris Agreement’s goals. However, most mitigation scenarios developed with Integrated Assessment and Energy System Models often lack a reliable representation of lifestyle changes, therefore modelled pathways overlook the intricate interplay between the impacts of behavioural change and climate policy instruments. This study addresses this critical gap by introducing methodological improvements in leading sectoral energy models (PRIMES-BuiMo, EDGE-Buildings) to simulate more accurately the effect of potential lifestyle transformations in households. The improved models were used to develop scenarios for the residential sector of the European Union up to 2050, considering two different climate targets and three distinct assumptions about the adoption rate and intensity of lifestyle changes. The findings reveal that lifestyle transformations can lead to substantial reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions of households. Important cost reductions, especially for fuel expenses, resulting from lifestyle changes could help mitigate the risk of energy poverty for vulnerable households in the decarbonisation context. A decomposition analysis of energy savings by behavioural measure showcases the benefit to incorporate lifestyle changes with high mitigation potential such as thermostat set-point adjustments and dwellings downsizing in ambitious climate targets. Showcasing the pivotal role of lifestyle changes in achieving low-carbon futures signals the need for policy to address the drivers and key barriers of demand-side transitions.

Identifying summer energy poverty and public health risks in a temperate climate

Identifying summer energy poverty and public health risks in a temperate climate

Child-specific deprivation: insights from Italy

The EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) is one of the main sources of data for periodic reports on the social situation of the European Union and the spread of the risk of poverty in member countries. In the national context, the reference population of the EU-SILC survey consists of all the households residing in Italy at the time of the interview, and their members. All household members are surveyed, but only people aged 16 or over are personally interviewed. However, the needs and living standards of children are different from those of adults, even within the same households. Although many of the household-level material and social deprivation items available from the core questionnaire are relevant to the situation of children, the accurate measurement of the actual living conditions of children requires the collection of information specific to the children’s situation and needs. To this end, in addition to the annual variables, the EU-SILC survey includes also variables collected every three years via a specific module on children. This thematic ad hoc module includes child-specific items on material and social deprivation, which made it possible to compute the child-specific indicator. To this end, in this paper we present the results of the child-specific indicator calculation for the Italian context – referring to the data from the modules included in the 2017 and 2021 survey editions, also showing which social dimensions are mainly interrelated with child deprivation.

Male migration and the transformation of gendered agriculture work: a comparative exploration of heterogeneity across selected Indian states

Male migration among agriculture-dependent households has emerged as an important livelihood strategy for coping with poverty, food insecurity, climate change, and several other risks and shocks in the Global South. Emerging research on the impacts of male migration on women’s agency, especially in agricultural production and decision-making, paints a one-size-fits-all picture. This paper, through a comparative, qualitative analysis of the implications of male out-migration on gender roles and responsibilities in agriculture across four different agroecologies in India – forested, mountainous, semi-arid, and coastal – highlights the heterogeneity in women’s experiences of male migration in the Indian context. While the nature of migration and the amount and regularity of remittances shape the increase or decline in women’s work and responsibilities, factors like age, caste, class, life stage, and context also play a significant role. We note that current scholarship has given too much importance to the narrative on remittance-driven livelihoods at the cost of multiple factors that shape women’s roles, experiences, and strategic choices in migrant-sending communities. What appears critical for transformative change is state policy that facilitates and enables collective action, central to overcoming the patriarchal constraints women encounter, especially as they shift from labouring to managerial roles in farming.

Living conditions, lifestyles and self-rated health in Italy

We study the association between living conditions, lifestyles and self-rated health in Italy, using the module on lifestyles and health difficulties included in the 2022 edition of the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). In particular, we use logistic regression to estimate the association between three EU-SILC indicators of poverty or social exclusion (risk of poverty, material deprivation and severe housing deprivation), covering different aspects of socio-economic disadvantage, and self-rated health, controlling for a full set of individual covariates and for many lifestyle risk factors (body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, healthy diet, physical activity and social participation). We document the existence of a strong association between socio-economic deprivation and the risk of poor self-rated health. Moreover, we find a significant impact of lifestyles on this association, showing how observed inequalities in subjective health depend on the complex interactions between socio-economic deprivation and the adoption of healthy habits.