Risk Factors For Early Recurrence Research Articles

Research progress of microvascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a kind of highly aggressive tumor of the digestive system. Several studies have confirmed that microvascular invasion (MVI) is an independent risk factor for early recurrence and poor prognosis of HCC after surgery. Currently, pathological examination is the gold standard for diagnosing MVI. This paper summarizes concept, prognosis, preoperative prediction and treatment plan based on literature review of MVI in HCC.

18F-FDG PET/CT radiomic analysis for classifying and predicting microvascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

BackgroundMicrovascular invasion (MVI) is a critical risk factor for early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). The aim of this study was to explore the contribution of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) radiomic features for the preoperative prediction of HCC and ICC classification and MVI.MethodsIn this retrospective study, 127 (HCC: ICC =76:51) patients with suspected MVI accompanied by either HCC or ICC were included (In HCC group, MVI positive: negative =46:30 in ICC group, MVI positive: negative =31:20). Results-driven feature engineering workflow was used to select the most predictive feature combinations. The prediction model was based on supervised machine learning classifier. Ten-fold cross validation on training cohort and independent test cohort were constructed to ensure stability and generalization ability of models.ResultsFor HCC and ICC classification, radiomics predictors composed of two PET and one CT feature achieved area under the curve (AUC) of 0.86 (accuracy, sensitivity, specificity was 0.82, 0.78, 0.88, respectively) on test cohort. For MVI prediction, in HCC group, our MVI prediction model achieved AUC of 0.88 (accuracy, sensitivity, specificity was 0.78, 0.88, 0.60 respectively) with three PET features associated with tumor stage on test cohort. In ICC group, the phenotype composed of two PET features and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) achieved AUC of 0.90 (accuracy, sensitivity, specificity was 0.77, 0.75, 0.80, respectively).Conclusions18F-FDG PET/CT radiomic features integrating clinical factors have potential in HCC and ICC classification and MVI prediction, while PET features have dominant predictive power in model performance. The prediction model has value in providing a non-invasive biomarker for an earlier indication and comprehensive quantification of primary liver cancers.

Analysis of preoperative risk factors for early recurrence after curative pancreatoduodenectomy for resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

ObjectivesTo investigate the risk factors for early recurrence after curative pancreatoduodenectomy for resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.MethodsAll data were retrospectively collected from patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma who had undergone pancreatoduodenectomy at the Department of Surgery, Phramongkutklao Hospital, from January 2015 to December 2020. The preoperative and perioperative risk factors were included into the analysis.ResultsIn total, 34 patients were included in the study. The median time for recurrence and median survival time were 17 and 20 months, respectively. The 1, 3, and 5 year disease-free survival rates were 59.6%, 23.87%, and 23.87%, respectively, while the 1, 3, and 5 year overall survival rates were 81%, 24.7%, and 12.4%, respectively. Seventeen patients (50%) from a total of 34 patients had recurrence, and ten patients (29.41%) had recurrence within 12 months. The independent preoperative risk factor associated with adverse disease-free survival was tumor size > 4 cm (hazard ratio [HR], 14.34, p=0.022). The perioperative risk factors associated with adverse disease-free survival were pathological lymphovascular invasion (HR, 4.31; p=0.048) and non-hepatopancreatobiliary surgeon (HR, 5.9; p=0.022). Risk factors associated with poor overall survival were microscopical margin positive (R1) resection (HR, 3.68; p=0.019) and non-hepatopancreatobiliary surgeon (HR, 3.45; p=0.031).ConclusionsTumor size > 4 cm from the preoperative imaging study was a poor prognostic factor for early recurrence after curative pancreatoduodenectomy for resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma indicated that they may have radiological occult metastasis, thus, staging laparoscopy may reduce the number of unnecessary laparotomies and avoid missing radiologically negative metastases.

A Nomogram Model to Predict Early Recurrence of Patients With Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma for Adjuvant Chemotherapy Guidance: A Multi-Institutional Analysis.

BackgroundThe influence of different postoperative recurrence times on the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the independent risk factors and establish a nomogram prediction model of early recurrence (recurrence within 1 year) to screen patients with ICC for ACT.MethodsData from 310 ICC patients who underwent radical resection between 2010 and 2018 at eight Chinese tertiary hospitals were used to analyze the risk factors and establish a nomogram model to predict early recurrence. External validation was conducted on 134 patients at the other two Chinese tertiary hospitals. Overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) were estimated by the Kaplan–Meier method. Multivariate analysis was conducted to identify independent risk factors for prognosis. A logistic regression model was used to screen independent risk variables for early recurrence. A nomogram model was established based on the above independent risk variables to predict early recurrence.ResultsACT was a prognostic factor and an independent affecting factor for OS and RFS of patients with ICC after radical resection (p < 0.01). The median OS of ICC patients with non-ACT and ACT was 14.0 and 15.0 months, and the median RFS was 6.0 and 8.0 months for the early recurrence group, respectively (p > 0.05). While the median OS of ICC patients with non-ACT and ACT was 41.0 and 84.0 months, the median RFS was 20.0 and 45.0 months for the late recurrence group, respectively (p < 0.01). CA19-9, tumor size, major vascular invasion, microvascular invasion, and N stage were the independent risk factors of early recurrence for ICC patients after radical resection. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.777 (95% CI: 0.713~0.841) and 0.716 (95%CI: 0.604~0.828) in the training and testing sets, respectively.ConclusionThe nomogram model established based on the independent risk variables of early recurrence for curatively resected ICC patients has a good prediction ability and can be used to screen patients who benefited from ACT.

Clinical determinants of recurrence in pTa bladder cancer following transurethral resection of bladder tumor.

BackgroundNon-muscle invasive bladder cancer can be controlled by transurethral resection of bladder (TURB), but suffers from frequent recurrences in 60–70% of cases. Although, recurrence interval after TURB influences treatment course and prognosis, its implication and risk factors have not been fully elucidated. We evaluated the risk factors of early (within 1 yr) and late (after 1 yr) recurrence of pTa bladder cancer and clinical significance of recurrence interval on disease progression and overall survival.MethodsIn this study, pTa bladder cancer patients enrolled in prospective patient registry system of Seoul National University, SUPER-UC, were retrospectively examined to determine the clinical risk factors for recurrence and its significance regarding to recurrence interval. A total of 1067 bladder cancer patients who underwent TURB between March 20 and June 2021 were included and classified into three groups of no recurrence, early, or late recurrence to be comparatively analyzed.ResultsEarly recurrence was associated with poorer cystectomy-free survival and overall survival than late recurrence. Risk factors for early recurrence included a high number of previous TURB, tumor multiplicity, tumor location, tumor shape, incompleteness of TURB, and high tumor grade. Otherwise, late recurrence was associated with low-grade tumors with insufficient TURB depth.ConclusionPatients with risk factors for early recurrence should be closely followed up with special cautions.

Radiologic Analysis of Causes of Early Recurrence After Percutaneous Endoscopic Transforaminal Discectomy.

Retrospective study. To analyze the causes of and factors influencing early recurrence after TELD performed in the treatment of lumbar disc herniation. We included 285 patients with single-segment lumbar disc herniation treated using transforaminal endoscopy lumbar discectomy TELD from January 2017 to December 2019 at the First Affiliated Hospital of the University of South China. Patients were classified into early recurrence and non-early recurrence groups based on clinical symptoms and MRI reexamination. Imaging data (eg, disc height index (DHI), Pfirrman grades, base width, postoperative annulus-fibrosus tear size, cross-sectional area of the foramen (CSAF), etc.)were analyzed, and multivariate, binomial logistic regression was utilized to determine which factors were associated with early recurrence after TELD. A total of 285 patients completed surgery and clinical follow-up, during which 19 patients relapsed within 6 months postsurgery, for an early recurrence rate of 6.7%. There were statistically significant differences between DHI, Pfirrman grades, base width, postoperative annulus-fibrosus tear size, herniation sites, CSAF and Modic changes between the early recurrence and non-early recurrence groups (P < .05). On multivariate logistic regression,the degree of disc degeneration (OR = .747, P = .037), CSAF (OR = 5.255, P = .006), degree of Modic change (OR = 1.831, P = .018) and base width of the herniation (OR = 4.942, P = .003) were significantly correlated with early recurrence after TELD. Postoperative annulus-fibrosus tear size, DHI, and location of the disc herniation were associated with early recurrence after TELD. Increased base width of the herniation, severe disc degeneration, decreased CSAF and Modic change were risk factors for early recurrence after TELD.

A Nomogram for Predicting Early Recurrence in Patients with High-Grade Gliomas

The objective of the study was to develop a nomogram to predict early recurrence of high-grade glioma (HGG) based on clinical pathology, genetic factors, and magnetic resonance imaging parameters. One hundred fifty-four patients with HGG were classified into recurrence and nonrecurrence groups based on the pathological diagnosis and Response Assessment in Neuro-Oncology criteria. Clinical pathology information included age, sex, preoperative Karnofsky performance status scores, grade, and cell proliferation index (Ki-67). Gene information included P53, isocitrate dehydrogenase 1 (IDH1), O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase, and telomerase reverse transcriptase expression status. All patients underwent baseline magnetic resonance imaging before treatment, including T1-weighted imaging, T2-weighted imaging, contrast-enhanced T1WI, fluid attenuated inversion recovery, and diffusion-weighted imaging examinations. Tumor location, single/multiple tumors, tumor diameter, peritumoral edema, necrotic cyst, hemorrhage, average apparent diffusion coefficient value, and minimum apparent diffusion coefficient values were evaluated. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to determine the predictors of early recurrence and build a nomogram. Univariate analysis showed that the number of tumors (odds ratio [OR], 0.258; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.104, 0.639; P=0.003) and peritumoral edema (OR, 0.965; 95% CI: 0.942, 0.988; P=0.003; mean in the recurrence group= 22.04±17.21mm; mean in the nonrecurrence group= 14.22±12.84mm) were statistically significantly different in patients with early recurrence. Genetic factors associated with early recurrence included IDH1 (OR, 4.405; 95% CI: 1.874, 10.353; P=0.001) and O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (OR, 2.389; 95% CI: 1.234, 4.628; P=0.010). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the number of tumors (OR, 0.227; 95% CI: 0.084, 0.616; P=0.004), peritumoral edema (OR, 0.969; 95% CI: 0.945, 0.993; P=0.013), and IDH1 (OR, 4.200; 95% CI: 1.602, 10.013; P=0.004) were independent risk factors for early recurrence. The nomogram showed the highest net benefit when the threshold probability was less than 60%. A nomogram prediction model can effectively aid in clinical treatment decisions for patients with newly diagnosed HGG.

Impact of Third-Generation Cephalosporin Resistance on Recurrence in Children with Febrile Urinary Tract Infections.

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between third-generation cephalosporin resistance and urinary tract infection (UTI) recurrence in patients who underwent voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG). Methods: In this retrospective study, data were obtained from hospitalized pediatric patients who had a first febrile UTI episode and subsequently underwent VCUG. Information based on VCUG was mandatory to identify the presence of vesicoureteral reflux (VUR). A multivariable logistic model was used to identify the risk factors for recurrence. Recurrence was divided into early (90-day) and late (1-year), and sensitivity analyses were performed according to each definition. The estimates of all the statistical models were internally validated using bootstrap samples. Results: A total of 210 patients were included, and the overall recurrence rate of UTI was 26.2% (55 of 210). Third-generation cephalosporin resistance was a significant risk factor for early recurrence (odds ratio: 2.79 [1.08–7.20]) but not for late recurrence. Sensitivity analyses showed that third-generation cephalosporin resistance was a significant risk factor for 60-day recurrence but not for 180-day recurrence. A VUR grade ≥ 3 was identified as a consistent risk factor for both early and late recurrence. Conclusions: Third-generation cephalosporin resistance was a significant risk factor for the early recurrence of pediatric UTI in patients who underwent VCUG.

EARLY RECURRENCE OF CARCINOMA GALL BLADDER AFTER R0 RESECTION OF STAGE T1B-T3

Objective:The time to tumour recurrence after curative intent excision can predict the prognosis of hepatobiliary malignancies. As a result, we studied the risk factors for early recurrence of gallbladder cancer and related prognosis in patients with T1b–T3 gallbladder carcinoma who had received R0 resection. Material and Methods:Total of 18patients who underwent R0 resection for gall bladder carcinoma of stage T1b–T3 between March 2009 and Feb 2017at Hayatabad Medical Complex Peshawar Pakistan were included in the study. The exclusion and inclusion criteria were strictly followed.Logisticregressionmodelswereusedtoidentifytheriskfactorsforearlyrecurrence. Results:Atthetimeofradical surgery the type of resection consisted primarily of cholecystectomy with partial hepatic resection was (n=15, 83.3%). Resection of regional lymph nodes was performed routinely in all patients. Pathologically most patients had tumors at stage I&amp;II (n=13, 72.2%).Postoperatively5(27.7%) patients hadatleastonecomplication&amp;almost 2 (11.1%) individuals developed major complications,theoverallmorbiditywas 4(22.2%).Overall survival rate at1,3, and 5 years was 15(83.3%),11(61.1%) and6(33.3%)respectively. Total of 7(38.8%) patients experienced tumor recurrence after treatment, amongthem 4 (57.1%) developed a local recurrence, while 1(14.2%) developed distant recurrence and 2(28.5%) experienced both local and distant recurrence. The liver parenchyma 3(42.8%) was the most prevalent site of relapse. Conclusion: T3 stage, N1–N2 stage, poor differentiation and lymphovascular invasion were independent risk factors associated with early recurrence for patients with gall bladder carcinoma with stage T1b–T3 disease after R0 resection.

Risk factors for early recurrence after discontinuing lithium in bipolar disorder.

Time to a new episode of bipolar disorder (BD) is shorter after discontinuing lithium rapidly. We now address this and other factors associated with the risk of early illness after discontinuing lithium. We compared factors for association with recurrences of BD within 12months of discontinuing long-term lithium treatment, using bivariate and multivariable analyses, as well as survival analysis to evaluate latency to new episodes versus rate of lithium-discontinuation and prior treatment duration. Among 227 BD subjects who received lithium for 4.47 [CI: 3.89-5.04] years and then discontinued, rapid treatment-discontinuation, and stopping for medical reasons were strongly associated with new illness-episodes within 12months, as were diagnosis (BD-I > BD-II), greater morbidity during lithium-treatment, and less education, but neither longer treatment nor serum lithium concentrations. Discontinuation rate was strongly associated with shorter median latency to a new episode (rapid: 3.50; gradual [≥2 weeks]: 10.6 months), even with very early recurrences excluded to avoid potential contributions of emerging illness to treatment-discontinuation. Early recurrence was not associated with treatment-duration of ≥2 or ≥5 years or less. In multivariable logistic regression, rapid discontinuation, stopping for medical reasons, and BD-I diagnosis remained significantly, independently associated with early illness after lithium-discontinuation, with no effect of treatment duration. Early recurrence risk was again much greater after rapid discontinuation of lithium and discontinuing for medical reasons, somewhat greater with BD-I than BD-II, and following greater morbidity during lithium-treatment, but not related to dose or duration of preceding treatment exposure.

Predictive risk factors for early recurrence in patients with localized pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma who underwent curative-intent resection after preoperative chemoradiotherapy.

BackgroundThe optimal surgical indication after preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) remains a subject of debate for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) because early recurrence often occurs even after curative-intent resection. The present study aimed to identify perioperative risk factors of early recurrence for patients with PDAC who underwent curative-intent resection after preoperative CRT.MethodsTwo hundred three patients with PDAC who underwent curative-intent resection after preoperative CRT from February 2005 to December 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. The optimal threshold for differentiating between early and late recurrence was determined by the minimum p-value approach. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify predictive factors for early recurrence.ResultsIn 130 patients who developed recurrence after resection, 52 who had an initial recurrence within 12 months were defined as the early recurrence group, and the remaining 78 were defined as the late recurrence group. The incidence of hepatic recurrence was significantly higher in the early recurrence group than in the late recurrence group (39.7 vs. 15.4%). The early recurrence group had significantly lower 3-year rates of post-recurrence and overall survival than the late recurrence group (4.0 and 10.7% vs. 9.8 and 59.0%, respectively). Serum level of CA19-9 before surgery ≥56.8 U/ml was identified as an independent risk factor for early recurrence (OR:3.07, 95%CI:1.65–5.73, p<0.001) and associated with a significantly higher cumulative incidence rate of hepatic recurrence and lower rates of recurrence-free and overall survival.ConclusionSerum level of CA19-9 before surgery after preoperative CRT was a strong predictive factor for early recurrence.

Gender disparity in hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after curative hepatectomy

Introduction and objectivesWhether there is gender disparity in the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been not fully addressed. This study aimed to investigate the impact of gender on HCC recurrence following curative hepatectomy. Patients and methodsThis retrospective cohort study included 1087 patients with HCC (917 males, 170 females) who underwent curative hepatectomy. Cox regression models were constructed to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the risk parameters associated with HCC recurrence. In the sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis, and propensity score matching (PSM) analysis were used. Logistic regression models were used to assess the odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI of the risk parameters related to early and late recurrence. ResultsMale patients showed significantly higher risk for HCC recurrence than females, in both multivariate Cox regression analysis (HR [95% CI] = 1.480 [1.084–2.020], P = 0.014) and PSM analysis (HR [95% CI] = 1.589 [1.093–2.312], P = 0.015). Higher risk of HCC recurrence was again found in males in the subgroup analysis, but the effect of male versus female gender on HCC recurrence did not depend on any selected subgroups (all P for interaction > 0.05). Gender was an independent risk factor for early recurrence (OR [95% CI] = 1.864 [1.215–2.936], P = 0.006), but not for late recurrence. ConclusionsThere is gender disparity in the recurrence of patients with HCC after curative hepatectomy: males had a higher risk for HCC recurrence than females.

Endoscopic mucosal resection of colorectal polyps: results, adverse events and two-year outcome.

Endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) is the first-line treatment for large sessile and flat colorectal polyps in Western centres, however recurrence after EMR continues to be a challenge. The aim of this study is to assess efficacy, safety and recurrence rate of EMR in a tertiary centre and to identify risk factors for recurrence at first surveillance endoscopy (SE1). We performed a retrospective study of 165 sessile and flat colorectal lesions ≥15 mm, treated by EMR between 2017-2019. We used multivariate logistic regression to identify independent risk factors for recurrence at SE1. EMR was performed for 165 colorectal polyps in 142 patients with technical success in 158 cases (95,2%). SE1 data for 117 of 135 eligible cases (86,7%) showed recurrent adenoma in 19 cases (16,2%) after a median time of 6,2 months (IQR 5-9,9). This was primarily treated endoscopically (78,9%). Independent risk factors for recurrence at SE1 were lesion size ≥40 mm (OR 4,03; p=0,018) and presence of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) (OR 3,89; p=0,034). Early adverse event occurred in 4 patients (2,4%), with 3 bleeding complications and one perforation. Twelve patients (7,2%) presented with delayed bleeding of which 3 required transfusion, with radiological intervention in one case. All other complications were managed either conservatively (n=8) or endoscopically (n=5). EMR is a safe and effective treatment for large sessile and flat colorectal lesions with low recurrence rates. Lesion size ≥40 mm and presence of HGD were identified as risk factors for early recurrence, highlighting the importance of compliance to follow-up in these cases.

Perioperative Serum Scoring Systems Predict Early Recurrence and Poor Prognosis of Resectable Pancreatic Cancer.

ObjectiveSome patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) are prone to rapid recurrence or metastasis after radical resection. However, evaluation methods for effectively identifying these patients are lacking. In this study, we established perioperative serum scoring systems to screen patients with early recurrence and poor prognosis.MethodsWe systematically analysed 44 perioperative serum parameters, including systemic inflammatory parameters, coagulation system parameters, tumor markers, and 18 clinicopathological characteristics of 218 patients with radical resection in our centre. Univariate Cox regression and LASSO regression models were used to screen variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to compare relapse-free survival and overall survival. Multivariate Cox regression was used to evaluate the independent risk variables. AUC and C-index were used to reveal the effectiveness of the models. In addition, the effectiveness was also verified in an independent cohort of 109 patients.ResultsPreoperative systemic immune coagulation cascade (SICC) (including increased neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, decreased lymphocyte to monocyte ratio, increased platelet and fibrinogen) and increased postoperative tumor markers (TMs) (CA199, CEA and CA242) were independent risk factors for early recurrence of resectable pancreatic cancer. On this basis, we established the preoperative SICC score and postoperative TMs score models. The patients with higher preoperative SICC or postoperative TMs score were more likely to have early relapse and worse prognosis. The nomogram based on preoperative SICC, postoperative TMs, CACI, smoking index, vascular cancer embolus and adjuvant chemotherapy can effectively evaluate the recurrence rate (AUC1 year: 0.763, AUC2 year: 0.679, AUC3 year: 0.657) and overall survival rate (AUC1 year: 0.770, AUC3 year: 0.804, AUC5 year: 0.763).ConclusionPreoperative SICC and postoperative TMs can help identify resectable PDAC patients with early recurrence and poor prognosis.

Prediction of Early Recurrence After R0 Resection for Gallbladder Carcinoma of Stage T1b-T3.

PurposeThe time-to-tumor recurrence can predict the prognosis of hepatobiliary cancers following curative-intent resection. Therefore, for patients with gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) of stage T1b–T3 who had undergone R0 resection, we investigated the risk factors for early recurrence of GBC and their prognosis.Patients and MethodsA total of 260 patients with GBC with T1b–T3 disease and an R0 margin were identified. Their clinicopathologic characteristics, perioperative details and prognostic data were reviewed. Survival analyses were carried out using the Kaplan–Meier method. Logistic regression models were used to identify the risk factors for early recurrence.ResultsThe optimal cutoff for early recurrence was 29 months. Early recurrence tended to result in relapse far from the primary tumor, and such patients tended to have significantly worse overall survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that T3 disease, N1/N2 stage, poor differentiation of tumor, and lymphovascular invasion (LI) were associated with a greater risk of early recurrence. Patients diagnosed as having GBC incidentally and who had the risk factors of early recurrence were more likely to benefit from re-resection 2–4 weeks after a cholecystectomy.ConclusionT3 stage, N1–N2 stage, poor differentiation, and LI were independent risk factors associated with early recurrence for patients with GBC with stage T1b–T3 disease after R0 resection.

Preoperative serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels predict early recurrence after the resection of early-stage pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUNDPancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a serious disease with a poor prognosis. Only a minority of patients undergo surgery due to the advanced stage of the disease, and patients with early-stage disease, who are expected to have a better prognosis, often experience recurrence. Thus, it is important to identify the risk factors for early recurrence and to develop an adequate treatment plan.AIMTo evaluate the predictive factors associated with the early recurrence of early-stage PDAC.METHODSThis study enrolled 407 patients with stage I PDAC undergoing upfront surgical resection between January 2000 and April 2016. Early recurrence was defined as a diagnosis of recurrence within 6 mo of surgery. The optimal cutoff values were determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the risk factors for early recurrence.RESULTSOf the 407 patients, 98 patients (24.1%) experienced early disease recurrence: 26 (26.5%) local and 72 (73.5%) distant sites. In total, 253 (62.2%) patients received adjuvant chemotherapy. On ROC curve analysis, the optimal cutoff values for early recurrence were 70 U/mL and 2.85 cm for carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) levels and tumor size, respectively. Of the 181 patients with CA 19-9 level > 70 U/mL, 59 (32.6%) had early recurrence, compared to 39 (17.4%) of 226 patients with CA 19-9 level ≤ 70 U/mL (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that CA 19-9 level > 70 U/mL (P = 0.006), tumor size > 2.85 cm (P = 0.004), poor differentiation (P = 0.008), and non-adjuvant chemotherapy (P = 0.025) were significant risk factors for early recurrence in early-stage PDAC.CONCLUSIONElevated CA 19-9 level (cutoff value > 70 U/mL) can be a reliable predictive factor for early recurrence in early-stage PDAC. As adjuvant chemotherapy can prevent early recurrence, it should be recommended for patients susceptible to early recurrence.

Risk Factors for Early Recurrence of Gallstones in Patients Undergoing Laparoscopy Combined With Choledochoscopic Lithotomy: A Single-Center Prospective Study.

Objective: For patients with gallstones, laparoscopy combined with choledochoscopic lithotomy is a therapeutic surgical option for preservation rather than the removal of the gallbladder. However, postoperative recurrence of gallstones is a key concern for both patients and surgeons. This prospective study was performed to investigate the risk factors for early postoperative recurrence of gallstones.Methods: The clinical data of 466 patients were collected. Each patient was followed up for up to 2 years. The first follow-up visit occurred 4 months after the operation, and a follow-up visit was carried out every 6 months thereafter. The main goal of each visit was to confirm the presence or absence of gallbladder stones. The factors associated with gallstone recurrence were analyzed by univariate analysis and Cox regression.Results: In total, 466 eligible patients were included in the study, and 438 patients (180 men and 258 women) completed the 2-year postoperative follow-up. The follow-up rate was 94.0%. Recurrence of gallstones was detected in 5.71% (25/438) of the patients. Univariate analysis revealed five risk factors for the recurrence of gallstones. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that multiple gallstones, a gallbladder wall thickness of ≥4 mm, and a family history of gallbladder stones were the three predictive factors for postoperative recurrence of gallstones (P < 0.05).Conclusion: The overall 2-year recurrence rate of gallstones after the operation was 5.71%. Multiple gallstones, a gallbladder wall thickness of ≥4 mm, and a family history of gallstones were the three risk factors associated with early postoperative recurrence of gallstones.

Development and validation of an online calculator to predict early recurrence and long-term survival in patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

Distal cholangiocarcinoma (DCC) is a malignancy associated with a short survival time. In this study, we aimed to create an online nomogram calculator to predict early recurrence and long-term survival in patients with DCC after pancreaticoduodenectomy. A total of 486 patients with DCC were included. An online nomogram calculator was developed and validated in training, internal validation and external validation cohorts, respectively. Of the 486 patients who met the inclusion criteria, we allocated 240, 120, and 126 patients to the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that preoperative CA19-9, maximum tumor diameter, perineural invasion, and tumor differentiation were significant risk factors for early recurrence in patients with DCC. Incorporating these four factors, the nomogram achieved good AUC values of 0.788, 0.771, and 0.723 for predicting early recurrence in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Notably, this nomogram also had good power to predict overall survival. The discrimination ability of the nomogram was evaluated by dividing the predicted probabilities of early recurrence and survival into two risk groups in the training cohort (low risk≤132; high risk>132; P<.001). Time-dependent ROC and decision curve analysis further revealed that the nomogram provided higher diagnostic capacity and superior net benefit compared to other staging systems. This study developed and validated a web-based nomogram calculator that was capable of predicting early recurrence and long-term prognosis in patients with DCC after pancreaticoduodenectomy with high degrees of stability and accuracy.

Predictive Risk Factors for Early Recurrence of Stage pIIIA-N2 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PurposeInflammatory biomarkers and clinical pathological factors have been reported to predict survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The goal of this study was to identify risk factors for early recurrence in patients with pIIIA-N2 NSCLC who had undergone radial resection.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted on 238 patients with pIIIA-N2 NSCLC who underwent surgical treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between December 2006 and August 2018. The early recurrence (ER) group included patients who recurred within one year of curative resection, while the non-early recurrence (NER) group included patients who did not recurrence or recurrence beyond one year. The univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk analyses were used to identify prognostic factors associated with early recurrence, while the chi-square test was used for categorical data. Overall survival and recurrence-free survival were assessed by Kaplan–Meier estimates.ResultsA total of 69 patients experienced an early recurrence, while the remaining 169 patients did not relapse within one year. ER patients had a much worse prognosis than NER patients, with median survival times of 20.6 and 83.1 months, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that smoking status, tumor size, metastatic lymph node ratio (LNR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were independent risk factor of early recurrence. Patients with early recurrence were more likely to develop bone metastases.ConclusionSmoking history, large tumour size, and elevated LNR and PLR values in pIIIA-N2 NSCLC patients after complete resection may have a significant risk of early recurrence. Based on these independent risk indicators, this prediction model may successfully predict early recurrence and advise individual treatment.

Clinical features and risk factors for early recurrence after esophagectomy following neoadjuvant chemotherapy for esophageal cancer.

The purpose of this study was to clarify the clinical features and outcomes of patients with recurrence after esophagectomy following neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) related to the timing of recurrence. We reviewed 240 consecutive patients who underwent NAC followed by esophagectomy for clinical stage II/III esophageal squamous cell carcinoma between 2009 and 2014. We compared the clinical features and survival after recurrence among groups of patients stratified by the timing of recurrence diagnosis and identified the risk factors for early recurrence (ER). Recurrence was identified within 1year in 61 patients and after 1year in 23 patients. Significant differences were observed between the patients with recurrence within 1year (early recurrence; ER) and those with recurrence after 1year (late recurrence; LR). The ER patients had more advanced tumors and higher pretreatment serum squamous cell antigen (SCC-Ag) levels and less experienced downstaging than patients without recurrence (no recurrence; NR). Overall survival was significantly worse for the ER patients than for the LR patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that cN2-3, increased serum SCC-Ag levels, and clinical response to NAC were independent predictors of ER. The ER patients had distinctive clinical features from the LR and NR patients. Extensive lymph node metastasis, an elevated SCC-Ag, and inadequate response to NAC were identified as predictors of ER.