Risk Factors For Exposure Research Articles

Influence of urban noise exposure on early-onset myocardial infarction risk prediction

Abstract Results from the DECIBEL-MI (Determination of Environmental CIty-noise's Burden, Exposure, and Link to Myocardial Infarction) Study Background Urban noise has not been incorporated into existing risk scores for cardiovascular events. The present study endeavors to explore the impact of noise exposure on the individual risk of early-onset myocardial infarction (MI). Methods All consecutive patients aged ≤ 50 years with acute MI who were admitted to a heart center between 2015 and 2023 and were residing in our city were included. The LIFE-CVD model was used to predict the 10-year cardiovascular risk of the patients based on traditional risk factors at the time of MI. The Geoportal Bremen was used to calculate both the daytime (Lden) and nighttime (Lnight) residential noise exposure levels. Results Among the 430 patients aged 50 years or younger diagnosed with MI, an elevated incidence of noise exposure compared to the general population in the same region was observed. This result was observed in both Lden (65% vs. 53%, p < 0.01) and Lnight (55% vs. 41%, p < 0.01). Patients with MI and a low LIFE-CVD score (≤2.5%) exhibited significantly higher noise exposure in comparison to those with a high LIFE-CVD score (2.32 vs. 1.36, p < 0.01 for Lden, and 1.72 vs. 1.00, p < 0.01 for Lnight). The average noise exposure increased with decreasing traditional risk factors exposure (see Figure 1). This inverse relationship persisted significantly in a linear regression analysis, even after adjusting for potential confounding factors such as socioeconomic status, PM10 and renal function (p < 0.01). Consequently, the incorporation of urban noise exposure contributes to optimizing the stratification of risk groups within LIFE-CVD risk categories. Conclusion Young patients with myocardial infarction (MI) who had fewer traditional risk factors were exposed to higher noise levels. Through comprehensive multivariate analysis, we identified a consistent inverse association between residential noise and the estimated cardiovascular risk based on traditional risk factors. Incorporating noise exposure into clinical care considerations has the potential to enhance the accuracy of MI prediction. Figure 1: Comparison of Lden in patients with MI ≤ 50 years with different 10-year LIFE-CVD risk categories (based on traditional risk factors)

Deconstructing Cognitive Impairment in Psychosis With a Machine Learning Approach

Cognitive functioning is associated with various factors, such as age, sex, education, and childhood adversity, and is impaired in people with psychosis. In addition to specific effects of the disorder, cognitive impairments may reflect a greater exposure to general risk factors for poor cognition. To determine the extent that impairments in cognition in psychosis reflect risk factor exposures. This cross-sectional study examined the relationship between exposures and cognitive function using data from the Bipolar-Schizophrenia Network on Intermediate Phenotypes studies 1 and 2 across 6 sites. Participants included healthy controls; patients with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or bipolar I disorder with psychosis; and relatives of patients. Predictive modeling was performed using extreme gradient boosting regression to train a composite cognitive score prediction model with nested cross-validation. Shapley additive explanations values were used to examine the relationship between exposures and cognitive function. Exposures were chosen based on associations with cognition previously identified: age, sex, race and ethnicity, childhood adversity, education, parental education, parental socioeconomic status, parental age at birth, substance use, antipsychotic dose, and diagnosis. Cognition was assessed using the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia. A total of 3370 participants were included: 840 healthy controls, 709 patients with schizophrenia, 541 with schizoaffective disorder, 457 with bipolar I disorder with psychosis, and 823 relatives of patients. The mean (SD) age was 37.9 (13.3) years; 1887 were female (56%) and 1483 male (44%). The model predicted cognitive scores with high accuracy: out-of-sample Pearson correlation between predicted and observed cognitive composite score was r = 0.72 (SD = 0.03). Individuals with schizophrenia (z = -1.4), schizoaffective disorder (z = -1.2), and bipolar I disorder with psychosis (z = -0.5) all had significantly worse cognitive composite scores than controls. Factors other than diagnosis and medication accounted for much of this impairment (schizophrenia z = -0.73, schizoaffective disorder z = -0.64, bipolar I disorder with psychosis z = -0.13). Diagnosis accounted for a lesser proportion of this deficit (schizophrenia z = -0.29, schizoaffective disorder z = -0.15, bipolar I disorder with psychosis z = -0.13), and antipsychotic use accounted for a similar deficit across diagnostic groups (schizophrenia z = -0.37, schizoaffective disorder z = -0.33, bipolar I disorder with psychosis z = -0.26). This study found that transdiagnostic factors accounted for a meaningful share of the variance in cognitive functioning in psychosis. A significant proportion of the cognitive impairment in psychosis may reflect factors relevant to cognitive functioning in the general population. When considering interventions, a diagnosis-agnostic, symptom-targeted approach may therefore be appropriate.

Assessment of the clinical and laboratory risk factors for thrombosis in neonates admitted to neonatal intensive care unit (two Egyptian tertiary centers experience)

In neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), arterial and venous thromboembolism is a major cause of morbidity and death which could be attributed to multiple risk factors exposure. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical characteristics, laboratory and radiological assessments, predisposing risk factors, and outcomes of thrombosis in neonates admitted to NICU. This prospective cohort study was conducted at NICU, Minia, and Alexandria University Children’s Hospital. Screening of 886 patients admitted to NICU over one year with different clinical presentations, patients were classified into the thrombotic and non-thrombotic groups based on the presence or absence of thrombosis. Thrombosis was diagnosed based on clinical, laboratory and different radiologic assessments. Genetic testing for factor V Leiden mutations G1691A, prothrombin mutation G20210A, protein C, protein S, and antithrombin III gene mutations were performed for patients with a family history of thrombosis. Out of a total of 886 neonatal admissions, 36 patients were diagnosed with evident thrombosis (40 per 1000 NICU admissions). The sites of venous thrombosis detection were Portal vein thrombosis in 11 patients (30.6%), superior vena cava thrombosis in 7 patients (19.4%), deep venous thrombosis in 5 patients (13.9%), central venous thrombosis in 5 patients (13.9%), intra-cardiac thrombosis in 3 patients (8.3%) and necrotic skin patches in one patient (2.8%). Only 69% of enrolled thrombosis patients showed genetic mutations the most common of which was factor V Leiden mutation (52.3%). Sepsis, central venous line (CVL) insertion, C reactive protein (CRP), and duration of NICU admission were significantly more common in the thrombotic group (p < 0.001) and were associated with a higher risk of thrombosis (ORs: 1.02, 7.7, and 1.11, respectively) (p < 0.001). Higher mortality occurred in thrombosis neonates compared with a non-thrombotic group (52.8% versus 17.4%) (p < 0.001). NICU-admitted neonates are exposed to multiple overlapped risk factors, the detection of which is important for preventing potential thrombosis and improving the patient’s outcomes. The complexity of sepsis pathogenesis and management could potentiate multiple acquired risk factors. inherited thrombophilia detection is required for prevention of further morbidities.

The global burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to diet low in fiber among people aged 60 years and older, 1990–2019: an age–period–cohort analysis of the global burden of disease study

ObjectivesThis study aimed to quantify the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to diet low in fiber among adults aged 60 years and older using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019.MethodsWe extracted data on CVD mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk-factor exposures from the GBD 2019 study for people aged 60 and older. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the overall annual percentage change in mortality and DALY rate (net drift, % per year), mortality and DALY rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), longitudinal age-specific rate corrected for period bias (age effect), and mortality and Daly rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year). And period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect).ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, global age-standardized cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates attributable to low dietary fiber intake decreased by 2.37% per year, while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) fell by 2.48% annually. Decreases were observed across all sociodemographic index regions, with fastest declines in high and high-middle SDI areas. CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to low fiber increased exponentially with age, peaking at 85–89 years, and were higher in men than women. Regarding period effects, mortality and DALY rates declined since 2000, reaching nadirs in 2015–2019. For birth cohort patterns, risks attributable to low fiber intake peaked among early 1900s births and subsequently fell, with more pronounced reductions over time in women.ConclusionsLow dietary fiber intake is a leading contributor to the global cardiovascular disease burden, accounting for substantial mortality and disability specifically among older adults over recent decades.

Abstract C089: Characterization of the breast tumor immune microenvironment in women of African descent using single-nucleus RNA- and ATAC-sequencing

Abstract Women of African descent are at an increased risk of developing and dying from aggressive subtypes of breast cancer. A connection between aggressive disease and Western Sub-Saharan African ancestry has been postulated, but it remains largely unknown to what extent breast cancer in Africa is reminiscent of breast cancer in U.S. African American (AA) women who experience disproportionately high mortality rates. We performed ATAC- and RNA-sequencing on 9 human triple-negative breast cancer cell lines of U.S. origin and discovered that African ancestry influences the chromatin landscape, leading to disparate transcription factor (TF) activity and downstream gene expression patterns indicative of an aggressive tumor biology. Here, we describe an ambitious study that employs single-nucleus (sn) ATAC- and RNA-sequencing (snMultiome) of frozen breast tumors to characterize chromatin accessibility and gene expression patterns with single-cell resolution in AA (n=33), Kenyan (n=25), and European American (EA, n=24) women in relation to genetic ancestry, risk factor exposures, clinical characteristics, and 5-year survival. To achieve this, we successfully isolated intact, high-quality single nuclei from archival frozen breast tumor tissue through an optimized combination of enzymatic digestion and automated tissue homogenization. We performed snMultiome sequencing of 82 tumors using the 10x Genomics platform. Following filtering, normalization (SCT for snRNA; LSI for snATAC), peak calling (MACS2), and integration (Harmony), our dataset includes a total of 296,557 nuclei. Cancerous (163,419 nuclei) and non-cancerous (133,138 nuclei) cells were distinguished based on DNA copy number (CopyKat). Within the microenvironment, 11 major immune, epithelial, and stromal cell types were successfully annotated, exhibiting distinct patterns by population group (e.g. AA tumors showed markedly increased abundance of myeloid and T-cells, while Kenyan tumors showed increased abundance of pericytes and fibroblasts, relative to EA). A large number of enriched TFs within each cell type varied significantly by population group, suggesting distinct chromatin accessibility patterns related to genetic ancestry. CD45+, EPCAM- cells were further extracted, clustered, and manually annotated for subpopulations based on known marker genes. We detected 26 distinct immune subpopulations across our samples, including 2 inflammatory macrophage, 6 immunosuppressive macrophage, 1 fibronectin+/thrombospondin+ monocyte, 6 T-cell, 1 natural killer cell, 2 B-cell, 1 mast cell, and 4 dendritic cell subpopulations. Differential gene expression analyses of each immune cell subpopulation, adjusted for age, BMI, and tumor subtype, revealed ancestry-specific gene expression patterns, which could provide novel insights into functional differences that may impact tumor immune response. Current efforts focus on in-depth molecular characterization of ancestry-related differences in the tumor immune environment and distinct signatures present in lethal disease. Citation Format: Alexandra R. Harris, Huaitian Liu, Brittany D. Jenkins, Tiffany H. Dorsey, Francis Makokha, Shahin Sayed, Gretchen Gierach, Stefan Ambs. Characterization of the breast tumor immune microenvironment in women of African descent using single-nucleus RNA- and ATAC-sequencing [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 17th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2024 Sep 21-24; Los Angeles, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2024;33(9 Suppl):Abstract nr C089.

Effects and Thresholds of Young to Midlife Vascular Risks on Brain Health.

Vascular risk factors, particularly hypertension, are important contributors to accelerated brain aging. We sought to quantify vascular risk factor risks over adulthood and assess the empirical evidence for risk thresholds. We used SBP (systolic blood pressure) and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, and body mass index measurements collected from participants in the CARDIA study (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) at 2- to 5-year intervals through year 30. The Montreal Cognitive Assessment and domain-specific cognitive tests were performed at year 30. White matter hyperintensity volume was measured by magnetic resonance imaging. We used a 2-step method to fit longitudinal vascular risk factor exposures to optimized spline functions with mixed-effects models, then used the participant-specific random effects that characterized individual exposures over time in cross-sectional models adjusted for sex, race, age, and education to study effects on midlife brain health. Change in SBP up to 33 years of age was negatively associated with Montreal Cognitive Assessment scores (-0.29 Montreal Cognitive Assessment Z score per mm Hg/y change [95% CI, -0.49 to -0.09]; P=0.005), with similar effects for SBP changes from 33 to 49 years of age (-0.08 [95% CI, -0.16 to 0.01]; P=0.08). We observed comparable, significant associations between SBP exposure during those ages, midlife performance on specific cognitive domains, and volume of white matter hyperintensity (all P<0.05). SBP ≤111 mm Hg was the estimated threshold below which no harmful association with midlife cognitive performance was identified. SBP in early adulthood is the vascular risk factor most strongly associated with midlife cognitive performance and white matter hyperintensity burden, with SBP 111 mm Hg suggested as a harm threshold.

Trends in Stage-Specific Kidney Cancer Incidence in Kazakhstan, 2005-2019.

The aim is to analyze the incidence of kidney cancer over a 15-year period, considering factors such as stage, age, sex, and morphological verification in the regional context in Kazakhstan. The retrospective study was done using descriptive and analytical methods of oncoepidemiology. The extensive, crude and age-specific incidence rates are determined according to the generally accepted methodology used in sanitary statistics. The data were used to calculate the average percentage change (APС) using the Joinpoint regression analysis to determine the trend over the study period. Among the meticulously documented 15,277 cases, a conspicuous male predominance was noted, comprising 53.7% of cases compared to 46.3% in females, with peak incidences observed within the 50-69 age cohorts. The average age at diagnosis exhibited a progressive rise over the study period, with discernible variations observed in age-specific incidence rates, particularly pronounced within the 60-84 age brackets. Noteworthy temporal trends indicated a consistent uptick in crude incidence rates, with distinct regional disparities manifesting higher rates in northern regions relative to their southern and western counterparts. Stratification by cancer stage unveiled a significant surge in stages I-II cases alongside a concomitant decrement in stage III incidences, complemented by reductions in stage IV occurrences and instances of unspecified disease stages. Morphological verification rates displayed regional variations, with an overarching ascending trajectory across most regions, albeit exceptions noted, notably in the Kyzylorda region. Our study identified a rise in kidney cancer incidence in Kazakhstan, likely reflecting global trends driven by increased risk factor exposure and incidental imaging findings. Regional disparities and varied stage distributions highlight the complexity of kidney cancer epidemiology. Despite advancements in early detection, delayed diagnosis persists, necessitating improved surveillance and diagnostic practices.

Application of the Health Belief Model (HBM) in Buruli Ulcer Education: A Literature Review

Introduction: The basic principles of the Health Belief Model as a theoretical foundation were employed to examine Buruli ulcer education. The study employed various strategies to obtain relevant studies about the constructs of the Health Belief Model which were relevant in the context of Buruli ulcer education. Method: The strategies used sought to uncover studies that have applied the Health Belief Model as a theoretical framework or theoretical foundation in Buruli ulcer education especially within Ghana and found none. Review of studies was carried out through electronic databases searches, grey materials and electronic books. Search strategy with key terms related to Health Belief Model and Buruli ulcer were employed to retrieve relevant documents. The study considered only references that were relevant to the constructs of the theory and could be used to explain Buruli ulcer education. Results: The study considered the six constructs of the theory and these included (people perceived susceptibility to Buruli ulcer, perceived severity of Buruli ulcer, perceived benefit of not contracting Buruli ulcer, perceived barriers to Buruli ulcer healthcare, cues to action for Buruli ulcer and Buruli ulcer knowledge self-efficacy), and modifying factors. The theory has been used in health education for health related events and hence was considered the appropriate theory in the context of Buruli ulcer education. Conclusion: The fundamental idea of the theory is based on the individual personal belief about the disease and the methods that exist to be used to help in the reduction of risk factors. Hence public health workers could employ the theory to help in reduction of risk factors exposures among the population especially in endemic communities in Africa.

Age-period-cohort analysis of global, regional, and national pancreatic cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years, 1990–2019

BackgroundPancreatic cancer is one of the deadliest cancers in the world. In recent years, the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer have shown an increasing trend year by year. This study investigates the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2019, and evaluates the differences in the burden of pancreatic cancer across regions with different Sociodemographic Index (SDI) levels.MethodsEstimating the impact of age, period, and cohort on pancreatic cancer disease burden in different SDI regions using age-period-cohort modeling with data (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 and net drift of age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) for pancreatic cancer in 120 countries.ResultsThe number of new cases of pancreatic cancer worldwide increased from 197,348 (95% UI: 188,604,203,971) in 1990 to 530,297 (486,175,573,635) in 2019, the number of deaths increased from 198,051 (189,329 to 204,763) in 1990 to 531,107 (491,948 to 566,537) in 2019, and the number of DALY increased from 4,647,207 (4,465,440 to 4,812,129) in 1990 to 11,549,016 (10,777,405 to 1,238,912) in 2019. The ASIR of the average levels in global pancreatic cancer increased from 5.22 (4.97 to 5.40) per 100,000 population to 6.57 (6.00 to 7.09) per 100,000 population, the ASMR increased from 5.34 (5.07 to 5.52) per 100,000 population to 6.62 (6.11 to 7.06) per 100,000 population, and the ASDR increased from 115.47 (110.82 to 119.60) per 100,000 population to 139.61 (130.18 to 149.14) per 100,000 population. The incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of pancreatic cancer increase with age globally and across all SDI regions, peaking in the 85–89 age group. In high and high-middle SDI regions, the growth rate for males is higher than for females before the age of 85, while females have a higher growth rate after 85. The 75–79 age group exhibits the highest DALY rate in high and high-middle SDI regions, significantly higher than the global and other SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the period effects of pancreatic cancer incidence, mortality, and DALY rates have increased significantly worldwide, while remaining almost unchanged in high and high-middle SDI regions. In contrast, period effects have significantly increased in middle, low-middle, and low SDI regions. Cohort effects are more pronounced in middle, low-middle, and low SDI regions.ConclusionsWith the aggravation of population aging, the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in the world are increasing, and effective prevention and control measures can be achieved by reducing the exposure of risk factors. The APC model used in our analysis provides a novel approach to understanding the complex trends in the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of pancreatic cancer. It can inform the development of targeted interventions to reduce the severe disease burden caused by pancreatic cancer.

Changes in the exposure to cardiovascular disease risk factors in an 18 year follow-up study of a cohort of middle age urban residents. The Polish arm of the HAPIEE study.

Cross-sectional studies revealed that risk factor exposure increases with age but after reaching its peak decreases. This decline may be attributed to higher mortality among exposed individuals, lifestyle, or natural physiological changes related to age. Only prospective observations at the individual level provide credible insights of exposure during the transition from middle to old age. This study addresses changes in cardiovascular risk factors among older urban residents in Poland over an 18-year period. The study analyzed data from the Polish arm of the Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) project, a prospective cohort study investigating cardiovascular disease determinants. The sample included 312 participants (46-69 years). Data on demographic characteristics, blood lipids, blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, and smoking status were collected at baseline and during re-examination. The analysis yielded a decrease in diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. However, BMI and fasting glucose levels increased. The decrease in blood pressure was mainly attributed to treatment effects, while the reduction in lipid concentrations was observed regardless of treatment. In addition, smoking prevalence decreased over the course of 18 years. The results of the prospective nearly 20 year observation at the individual level confirm findings from repeated cross-sectional studies on decrease in lipid concentrations, blood pressure and prevalence of smoking in older individuals.

Projection of the prevalence of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer incidence using cigarette smoking prevalence in Iran from 1990 to 2018: a comparison of latent period-based models with standard forecasting models

BackgroundSmoking is the major risk factor for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancers. We investigated the feasibility of projecting TBL cancer incidence using smoking incidence rates by incorporating a range of latent periods from the main risk factor exposure to TBL cancer diagnosis.MethodsIn this ecological study, we extracted data on TBL cancer incidence rates in Iran from 1990 to 2018 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. We also collected data on Iranian cigarette smoking patterns over the past 40 years through a literature review. The weighted average smoking incidence was calculated using a fixed-effects model with Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software. Using these data, the five-year TBL cancer incidence in Iran was projected through time series modeling with IT Service Management (ITSM) 2000 software. A second model was developed based on cigarette smoking incidence using linear regression with SPSS (version 22), incorporating different latent periods. The results of these two models were compared to determine the best latent periods.ResultsAn increasing trend in TBL cancer incidence was observed from 2019 to 2023 (first model: 10.30 [95% CI: 9.62, 10.99] to 11.42 [95% CI: 10.85, 11.99] per 100,000 people). In the second model, the most accurate prediction was obtained with latent periods of 17 to 20 years, with the best prediction using a 17-year latent period (10.13 to 11.40 per 100,000 people) and the smallest mean difference of 0.08 (0.84%) per 100,000 people using the standard forecasting model (the ARIMA model).ConclusionProjecting an increase in TBL cancer incidence rates in the future, an optimal latent period of 17 to 20 years between exposure to cigarette smoke and TBL cancer incidence has implications for macrolevel preventive health policymaking to help reduce the burden of TBL cancer in upcoming years.

Latent profiles of global electrical heterogeneity: the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos.

Despite the highest prevalence of stroke, obesity, and diabetes across races/ethnicities, paradoxically, Hispanic/Latino populations have the lowest prevalence of atrial fibrillation and major Minnesota code-defined ECG abnormalities. We aimed to use Latent Profile Analysis in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) population to obtain insight into epidemiological discrepancies. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of baseline HCHS/SOL visit. Global electrical heterogeneity (GEH) was measured as spatial QRS-T angle (QRSTa), spatial ventricular gradient azimuth (SVGaz), elevation (SVGel), magnitude (SVGmag), and sum absolute QRST integral (SAIQRST). Statistical analysis accounted for the stratified two-stage area probability sample design. We fitted a multivariate latent profile generalized structural equation model adjusted for age, sex, ethnic background, education, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, dyslipidaemia, obesity, chronic kidney disease, physical activity, diet quality, average RR' interval, median beat type, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) to gain insight into the GEH profiles. Among 15 684 participants (age 41 years; 53% females; 6% known CVD), 17% had an increased probability of likely abnormal GEH profile (QRSTa 80 ± 27°, SVGaz -4 ± 21°, SVGel 72 ± 12°, SVGmag 45 ± 12 mVms, and SAIQRST 120 ± 23 mVms). There was a 23% probability for a participant of being in Class 1 with a narrow QRSTa (40.0 ± 10.2°) and large SVG (SVGmag 108.3 ± 22.6 mVms; SAIQRST 203.4 ± 39.1 mVms) and a 60% probability of being in intermediate Class 2. A substantial proportion (17%) in the Hispanic/Latino population had an increased probability of altered, likely abnormal GEH profile, whereas 83% of the population was resilient to harmful risk factors exposures.

Global Burden of Stroke Attributable to Low Physical Activity/High Body Mass Index Among People Aged 55 Years and Older.

This study aimed to quantify the global stroke burden attributable to low physical activity and high body mass index in adults aged ≥55 years using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We extracted data on stroke mortality, disability-adjusted life years, and risk factor exposure from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study for people aged ≥55 years. We calculated the population-attributable fraction and absolute number of stroke cases and disability-adjusted life years attributable to low physical activity and high body mass index by location, age group, sex, and year. Globally, body mass index and physical inactivity-attributable stroke burden have declined modestly since 1990, but with diverging escalatory regional trajectories. Population growth and aging drive this rising burden. Multidimensional, context-specific strategies focused on modifiable lifestyle risks are imperative to address the modest declines and escalatory regional trajectories in body mass index and physical inactivity-attributable stroke burden.

Risk-adjusted performance of new economy indices and thematic sectors

We analyze the performance and risk factor exposures of 10 thematic sectors and the associated market-wide indices directly related to highly innovative industries driving the fourth and fifth industrial revolutions. Formal statistical analysis shows that we cannot reject that alphas are jointly zero for alternative combinations of 12 recognized risk factors. When we analyze the exposure of these indices and sectors to risk factors, we find that they are generally small and weakly profitable. Moreover, these thematic sectors react badly to adverse shocks in the expected market risk premium suggesting an increasing risk of these sectors during high marginal utility events. The Future Communication sector is a notable exception to the joint zero-alpha performance. Despite the small possibility of very high returns in the future if their innovation becomes successful, it seems advisable to use these sectors by combining them with either industrial sectors or smart beta portfolios.

Breaking the mold: embracing early detection of coronary artery disease by coronary computed tomography angiography and the role of cumulative risk factor exposure.

Breaking the mold: embracing early detection of coronary artery disease by coronary computed tomography angiography and the role of cumulative risk factor exposure.

Comparison of multi-task ergonomic assessment methods for risk of upper extremity and low back musculoskeletal disorders

Work-related musculoskeletal disorder of upper extremity multi-task assessment methods (Revised Strain Index [RSI], Distal Upper Extremity Tool [DUET]) and manual handling multi-task assessment methods (Revised NIOSH Lifting Equation [RNLE], Lifting Fatigue Failure Tool [LiFFT]) were compared. RSI and DUET showed a strong correlation (rs = 0.933, p < 0.001) where increasing risk factor exposure resulted in increasing outputs for both methods. RSI and DUET demonstrated fair agreement (κ = 0.299) in how the two methods classified outputs into risk categories (high, moderate or low) when assessing the same tasks. The RNLE and LiFFT showed a strong correlation (rs = 0.903, p = 0.001) where increasing risk factor exposure resulted in increasing outputs, and moderate agreement (κ = 0.574) in classifying the outputs into risk categories (high, moderate or low) when assessing the same tasks. The multi-task assessment methods provide consistent output magnitude rankings in terms of increasing exposure, however some differences exist between how different methods classify the outputs into risk categories.

Global burden of liver cirrhosis 1990–2019 and 20 years forecast: results from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background Cirrhosis is a disease that imposes a heavy burden worldwide, but its incidence varies widely by region. Therefore, we analysed data on the incidence and mortality of cirrhosis in 204 countries and territories from 1990–2019 and projected the disease development from 2019–2039. Methods Data on the incidence and mortality of liver cirrhosis from 1990 to 2019 were acquired from the public Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In addition, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the age-standardized rate (ASR) of cirrhosis in different regions were calculated. The estimates of risk factor exposure were summarized, and the proportion of causes and risk factors of liver cirrhosis and their relationship with the human development index (HDI) and socio–demographic index (SDI) were analysed. Trends in the incidence of cirrhosis in 2019–2039 were predicted using Nordpred and BAPC models. Results Globally, the ASR of cirrhosis incidence decreased by 0.05% per year from 25.7/100,000 in 1990 to 25.3/100,000 in 2019. The mortality risk associated with cirrhosis is notably lower in females than in males (13 per 100,000 vs 25 per 100,000). The leading cause of cirrhosis shifted from hepatitis B to C. Globally, alcohol use increased by 14%. In line, alcohol use contributed to 49.3% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 48.4% of global deaths from liver cirrhosis. Countries with a low ASR in 1990 experienced a faster increase in cirrhosis, whereas in 2019, the opposite was observed. In countries with high SDI, the ASR of cirrhosis is generally lower. Finally, projections indicate that the number and incidence of cirrhosis will persistently rise from 2019–2039. Conclusions Cirrhosis poses an increasing health burden. Given the changing etiology, there is an imperative to strengthen the prevention of hepatitis C and alcohol consumption, to achieve early reduce the incidence of cirrhosis.

DETERMINANTS OF ADULT CARDIAC STRUCTURE: DEVELOPMENTAL INFLUENCE OF PHYSICAL ACTIVITY, SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE AND TV WATCHING

INTRODUCTION The impacts of health-related behaviours and risk factor exposures across childhood and adolescence on the adult heart are largely unexplored. We investigated whether early-life trajectories for physical activity (PA), sedentary behaviour and systolic blood pressure (SBP) are associated with cardiac structure in adulthood. METHODS Data collected throughout childhood and adolescence on PA, TV watching and SBP in a cohort study were used to develop antecedent trajectories. At age ∼29yrs, participants were invited to undergo an echocardiogram, to assess left ventricular mass (LVM), LV internal diameter (LVID) and LV wall thickness (LVWT). Analysis was performed between trajectories, separately by sex. RESULTS 723 participants were included. In males, LVM was greater in the antecedent High-PA trajectory (184.1±35.6g), compared to both Mid-PA (171.7±36.1g, P=0.014) and Low-PA (166.7±38.0g, P=0.021). This was related to greater LVID in High-PA compared to both Mid-PA (Δ1.3±0.5cm, P=0.018) and Low-PA (Δ1.3±0.8cm, P=0.087) groups; there were no differences in LVWT (all P&amp;gt;0.050). No differences were found in heart structure between PA trajectory groups in females (all P&amp;gt;0.050). For antecedent SBP, LVM was lower in both the Low-SBP (155.7±30.5g) and Normal-SBP groups (172.9±36.7g) compared to both High-normal (184.8±32.9g) and High-SBP (206.2±41.3g) in males (all P&amp;lt;0.001). This was primarily driven by larger LVWT in High-normal (Δ1.2±0.2g, P=0.001) and High-SBP groups (1.9±0.5g, P=0.001); no differences were observed for LVID (P=0.398). These findings for SBP were similar in females, with the highest SBP group having the greatest LVM and LVWT (all P&amp;lt;0.001). There were no significant impacts of antecedent TV trajectories on adult cardiac measures (all P&amp;gt;0.050). CONCLUSION Higher developmental SBP is associated with larger heart size and wall thickness in adulthood. Higher developmental PA levels are associated with larger cardiac chamber dimension in adult males, but not females. These findings suggest adult cardiac structure may be influenced by early-life risk factor exposures.

Comparison of early risk factors between healthy siblings and subjects with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.

The following work aims to compare the types and magnitude of risk events in patients with Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder and each of those groups with of a group of healthy siblings, exploring differences and similarities of the two psychotic disorders. Retrospective interviews were conducted with 20 families to investigate maternal and obstetric health, social support and the presence of early trauma for the affected family members and healthy siblings. Mothers were interviewed with the Prenatal Psychosocial Profile and each family participant was assessed with the Early Trauma Inventory, Screening Questionnaire of the Genomic Psychiatry Cohort and the Diagnostic Interview for Psychosis and Affective Disorders. Obstetric and gestational history, pregnancy weight changes and early trauma were associated with offspring's mental illness, including statistically significant findings for complications of pregnancy, pregnancy weight changes, general trauma, physical punishment and emotional abuse. These findings highlight the different risk factor exposures that occur within a family, which may increase the risk for severe mental illness.

Exposure to Holocaust is associated with chronic morbidity in older adults-Results from national health and nutrition surveys.

Although studies have suggested that Holocaust survivors are more likely than their non-Holocaust-exposed counterparts to suffer from mental and chronic morbidity, methodology differences and potential confounders often compromise result replicability and external validity. We examined associations between Holocaust exposure and chronic morbidity, as well as overall risk of mortality. Sociodemographic, health-related behavior and nutritional-intake data from two representative National Health and Nutrition Survey Ages 65 and Over-the 2005-2006 MABAT ZAHAV 1 (MZ1) and the 2014-2015 MZ2, including face-to-face interviews and anthropometric measurements-were analyzed. Demographic, health, nutritional and lifestyle characteristics, and exposure to the Holocaust were self-reported. Longitudinal data on overall mortality were obtained by linking the MZ1 population to the population registry dataset. Associations between Holocaust exposure and prevalence of chronic morbidity and risk factors were estimated by multivariable logistic regression analyses, and to risk of overall mortality by Cox regression analysis, both adjusted to significant covariates. Among 2096 study participants aged 75.7 ± 6.1 years, 47.0% male, 518 were Holocaust survivors. In the fully adjusted model, Holocaust exposure was associated with increased prevalence of heart disease (odds ratio [OR] 1.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.83), metabolic syndrome (OR 2.28, CI 1.23-4.21), and stroke (OR 1.77, CI 1.17-2.69), but not cancer or osteoporosis. Holocaust exposure did not substantially affect the overall risk of mortality (hazard ratio 1.10, CI 0.92-1.32). Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms governing long-term outcomes of exposure to acute physical or mental trauma.