Risk-based Management Research Articles

Enhancing the Reliability of Weak-Grid-Tied Residential Communities Using Risk-Based Home Energy Management Systems under Market Price Uncertainty

This paper evaluates the reliability of smart home energy management systems (SHEMSs) in a residential community with an unreliable power grid and power shortages. Unlike the previous works, which mainly focused on cost analysis, this research assesses the reliability of SHEMSs for different backup power sources, including photovoltaic systems (PVs), battery storage systems (BSSs), electric vehicles (EVs), and diesel generators (DGs). The impact of these changes on the daily cost and the balance of energy source contribution in providing electrical energy to household loads, particularly during power outage hours, is also evaluated. To address the uncertainty of electricity market prices, a risk management approach based on conditional value at risk is applied. Additionally, the study highlights the impact of community size on energy costs and reliability. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem and is solved using GAMS. The effectiveness of the proposed risk-based optimization approach is demonstrated through comprehensive cost and reliability analysis. The results reveal that when electric vehicles are used as backup power sources, the energy index of reliability (EIR) is not affected by market price variations and shows significant improvement, reaching approximately 99.9% across all scenarios.

Improving Cost Estimates for Risk-Based Food Safety Management and Policy.

Improving Cost Estimates for Risk-Based Food Safety Management and Policy.

Leveraging AI and ML for Next-Generation Cloud Security: Innovations in Risk-Based Access Management

In the increasing reliance on the cloud computing era, securing digital assets against sophisticated cyber threats has become a critical concern for organizations globally. Traditional security mechanisms, which often rely on static and pre-defined access control policies, must be revised to address these threats' dynamic and evolving nature. This study investigates the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) in enhancing cloud security through the development of advanced Risk-Based Access Management (RBAM) systems. The primary objective is to evaluate how AI and ML can improve dynamic access control, threat prediction, and mitigation strategies within cloud environments. The research adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative analysis of RBAM system performance with qualitative insights from cybersecurity experts. AI/ML models were developed using extensive historical access log datasets and integrated into a cloud-based RBAM prototype. The system's performance was assessed based on its accuracy in threat detection, reduction in false positives, and effectiveness in dynamically adjusting access controls. Results indicate that the AI-enhanced RBAM system significantly outperforms traditional methods, achieving a 30% reduction in false positives and a 25% decrease in unauthorized access incidents. Additionally, AI-driven threat prediction models demonstrated high accuracy, enabling preemptive actions to mitigate potential security breaches. These findings highlight the transformative potential of AI and ML in cloud security, providing a more adaptive and proactive defense against emerging threats. The study concludes with recommendations for refining AI/ML models and exploring their application in other areas of cloud security, emphasizing the need for continued innovation to safeguard the increasingly complex digital landscapes that organizations operate within today.

Effect of Staff Digital Literacy on Customs Goods Clearance at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, Kenya

Purpose: The clearance of imported goods at airports used the risk-based management customs systems of clearance to enhance faster clearance of goods from air cargo complexes, the use of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), there was quick cargo clearance of perishable cargo, and uniform and simple procedure of cargo handling. There were e-payment systems that enhanced faster clearances with an overall aim of minimizing dwell time of cargo to be handled at the airport's storage complexes. The purpose of the study was to determine the effect of staff digital literacy on customs goods clearance at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, Kenya. Methodology: This study employed an explanatory research design. The target population of the study was 245 KRA employees. Data was collected using questionnaires. The data were coded and entered into the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Collected data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results: The findings showed that staff digital literacy had a positive and significant effect on customs goods clearance (β=0.485, p=0.000). Conclusion: KRA needs to engage its staff in digital literacy training. Furthermore, gaining digital literacy skills helps staff to make use of all that technology has to offer in terms of learning, creativity, and teamwork, which enhances their custom goods clearances even more.

Prevalence, antimicrobial resistance and genomic comparison of non-typhoidal salmonella isolated from pig farms with different levels of intensification in Yangon Region, Myanmar

In Myanmar, where backyard, semi-intensive, and intensive pig (Sus scrofa domesticus) farming coexist, there is limited understanding of the zoonotic risks and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) associated with these farming practices. This study was conducted to investigate the prevalence, AMR and genomic features of Salmonella in pig farms in the Yangon region and the impact of farm intensification to provide evidence to support risk-based future management approaches. Twenty-three farms with different production scales were sampled for two periods with three sampling-visit each. Antimicrobial susceptibility tests and whole-genome sequencing were performed on the isolates. The prevalence of Salmonella was 44.5% in samples collected from backyard farms, followed by intensive (39.5%) and semi-intensive farms (19.5%). The prevalence of multi-drug resistant isolates from intensive farms (45/84, 53.6%) was higher than those from backyard (32/171, 18.7%) and semi-intensive farms (25/161, 15.5%). Among 28 different serovars identified, S. Weltevreden (40; 14.5%), S. Kentucky (38; 13.8%), S. Stanley (35, 12.7%), S. Typhimurium (22; 8.0%) and S. Brancaster (20; 7.3%) were the most prevalent serovars and accounted for 56.3% of the genome sequenced strains. The diversity of Salmonella serovars was highest in semi-intensive and backyard farms (21 and 19 different serovars, respectively). The high prevalence of globally emerging S. Kentucky ST198 was detected on backyard farms. The invasive-infection linked typhoid-toxin gene (cdtB) was found in the backyard farm isolated S. Typhimurium, relatively enriched in virulence and AMR genes, presented an important target for future surveillance. While intensification, in terms of semi-intensive versus backyard production, maybe a mitigator for zoonotic risk through a lower prevalence of Salmonella, intensive production appears to enhance AMR-associated risks. Therefore, it remains crucial to closely monitor the AMR and virulence potential of this pathogen at all scales of production. The results underscored the complex relationship between intensification of animal production and the prevalence, diversity and AMR of Salmonella from pig farms in Myanmar.

Cardiogenic shock severity predicts bleeding events in patients with temporary mechanical circulatory support.

Data on shock severity and bleeding events in patients with temporary mechanical circulatory support (tMCS) are limited. We investigated the relationship between the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions (SCAI) shock stage classification and bleeding events in patients with tMCS. We evaluated the data of 285 consecutive patients with tMCS who were admitted to our institution between June 2019 and May 2022. At the time of tMCS initiation, 81 patients (28.4%) were in SCAI stage A, 38 (13.3%) in stage B, 69 (24.2%) in stage C, 33 (11.6%) in stage D, and 64 (22.5%) in stage E. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to assess the association between the SCAI shock stage and in-hospital bleeding events. In-hospital bleeding occurred in 100 patients (35.1%). The bleeding event rate increased incrementally across the SCAI shock stages (stage A, 11.1%; stage B, 15.8%; stage C, 37.7%; stage D, 54.6%; stage E, 64.1%). In-hospital bleeding was associated with the SCAI shock stage (p < 0.001). Compared with stage A, the adjusted odds ratios for in-hospital bleeding were 1.48 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-4.66), 6.47 (95% CI 2.61-10.66), 11.59 (95% CI 3.77-35.64), and 7.85 (95% CI 2.51-24.55) for stages B, C, D, and E, respectively. The SCAI shock stage predicted subsequent bleeding events in patients with tMCS. This simple scheme may be useful for tailored risk-based clinical assessment and management of patients with tMCS.

Risk-based asset management framework for highway retaining wall systems using wireless structural health monitoring data

Risk-based asset management framework for highway retaining wall systems using wireless structural health monitoring data

Risk-based management of international sporting events during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mass gatherings include a diverse range of events such as sporting competitions, religious ceremonies, entertainment activities, political rallies and cultural celebrations, which have important implications for population well-being. However, if not managed properly, these events can amplify health risks including those related to communicable diseases, and place undue strain on health systems in host countries and potentially in attendees' home countries, upon their return. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the risk factors associated with mass gatherings and the effectiveness of applying mitigation measures during infectious disease emergencies. The pandemic has also allowed event organizers and health officials to identify best practices for mass gathering planning in host countries. To guide decisions about whether to hold, postpone, modify or cancel a mass gathering during the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Health Organization and its partners developed normative guidance and derivative tools promoting a risk-based approach to mass gathering planning. This approach involves three steps to guide decision-making around mass gatherings: risk evaluation, risk mitigation and risk communication. The approach was applied in the planning and execution of several mass gathering events, including the Tokyo 2020 and Beijing 2022 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Lessons identified from these large-scale international events offer insights into the planning and implementation of mass gathering events during a pandemic, and the broader impacts of such events on society. These lessons may also further inform and refine planning for future mass gatherings.

Bridge Proxy Indicators for Risk-Based Asset Management and Resilience Assessment

Bridge Proxy Indicators for Risk-Based Asset Management and Resilience Assessment

Bayesian Model Updating of Multiscale Simulations Informing Corrosion Prognostics Using Conditional Invertible Neural Networks

Abstract Physics-based multi-scale corrosion simulation plays a vital role in predicting the evolution of pitting corrosion on large civil infrastructure such as miter gates, contributing to a model-informed structural health monitoring (SHM) strategy for risk-based asset health management. The physics-based analysis, however, may not accurately reflect the underlying true physics due to various uncertainty sources and needs to be updated using Bayesian inference methods based on observations to make the prediction closer to field observations. However, traditional Bayesian inference requires the evaluation of a likelihood function, which is often unavailable due to the complex model architecture and various surrogate models used in the analysis. Therefore, likelihood-free inference approaches are required for the updating of the multi-scale corrosion simulation models. This paper meets this need by proposing a conditional invertible neural network (cINN)-based Bayesian model updating method for an existing corrosion simulation model. We first train an cINN model based on simulated observations generated from a high-fidelity forward corrosion analysis model. A convolutional neural network (CNN)-based feature extraction algorithm is then employed to extract key features from corrosion images. After that, the extracted corrosion features from CNN is used as inputs of the cINN model to directly obtain posterior distributions of uncertain corrosion model parameters without evaluating the likelihood function. The results show that the proposed cINN-based model updating approach can provide more accurate inference results with a reduced computational cost in comparison to the classical approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach.

Understanding current antenatal Hepatitis C testing and care in maternity services in England.

Universal opt-out antenatal screening for Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is not currently recommened and it is recommended that maternity services offer risk-based testing. We aimed to investigate antenatal HCV testing and adherence to testing guidance. A cross-sectional survey was circulated to maternity service providers between November-December 2020 which included testing policy, training for healthcare staff, and management of women found to be HCV positive. Descriptive data are presented. A total of 75 questionnaires were returned, representing 48 % of English maternity service providers. 87 % of providers reported offering antenatal HCV risk-based testing. Risk factors used to identify pregnant women for testing varied. Less than 15 % of respondents considered women that were ever homeless or with history of incarceraton or from higher HCV prevalence areas as high risk. Current antenatal HCV testing practices are inadequate and HCV infection likely goes undiagnosed in pregnancy, especially among vulnerable population groups. In the absence of universal antenatal screening, re-framing antenatal HCV risk-based testing and management as a quality improvement initiative and developing HCV specific pathway guidance for maternity units is required.

Effectiveness of risk-based caries management among Chinese preschool children: a randomized controlled single-blind trial

BackgroundEarly childhood caries (ECC) remain a serious oral health problem on a global scale. Risk-based caries management (RBCM) implemented in some parts of the world has been effective in preventing ECC. However, there is a lack of prospective research on the application of RBCM among Chinese children, and little is known about its effectiveness. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of RBCM in preventing caries among children aged 3–5 years in Wanzhou District, Chongqing Municipality, China.MethodsThree- to five-year-old children from four kindergartens in Wanzhou were randomly selected for baseline dental examination and caries risk assessment (CRA) and randomly assigned to the experimental group (EG) or the control group (CG) according to the kindergarten. The EG received caries prevention measures of different intensities based on the child’s caries risk level. The CG received full-mouth fluoride twice a year according to standard prevention, regardless of their caries risk. One year later, another dental examination and CRA were conducted, to observe changes in the decayed, missing, and filled teeth (dmft) index and caries risk, and to analyze potential factors that may affect the incidence of new caries.ResultsComplete data were collected from 291 children (EG, N = 140, 84.8%; CG, N = 181, 83.4%). A total of 25.7% of the EG and 50.3% of the CG children developed new caries, with newly added dmft scores of 0.54 ± 1.12 and 1.32 ± 1.72, respectively (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression indicated that children living in rural areas, assigned to the CG, and rated as high-risk at baseline were more likely to develop new caries (P < 0.05). The proportion of children with an increased caries risk in the EG was significantly lower than that in the CG (P < 0.05).ConclusionsRBCM effectively prevented new caries in 3- to 5-year-old Wanzhou children and reduced the proportion of children at increased risk of caries. It is an effective approach for preventing ECC.Clinical trial registrationThis trial was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trials Register. The registration number was ChiCTR230067551 (11/01/2023).

Towards a risk-based food safety management system in the fresh produce supply chain in Da Nang, Viet Nam

Food safety has emerged as a paramount concern for both Vietnamese consumers and the government. However, limited data are available on food safety management systems in Viet Nam. This study identified significant gaps in good agricultural and hygienic practices along the fresh produce chain (farmers and traditional wholesalers/market sellers) in the region of Da Nang, Viet Nam. This was achieved through a survey on good agricultural and hygienic practices for farmers (n = 100) and sellers (n = 100), which researchers further supplemented by microbiological analysis for E. coli, Salmonella spp., and Listeria monocytogenes on leafy greens, water in contact with produce and contact surfaces (hands). The results indicated that 86.0 % of farmers and 54.0 % of sellers received food safety training in the last 3 years; and women dominated both vegetable cultivation but also trading. Farm-level deficiencies included inadequate handwashing practices, lack of documentation for manure application schedules, improper washing and drying of harvest tools, failure to keep containers elevated off the ground, improper storage of vegetables, and inadequate covering of containers, with respectively 34.0 %, 30.3 %, 12.1 %, 41.7 % and 7.9 % of farmers executing the practice as prescribed by the WHO/FAO ‘5 keys of growing safer fruits and vegetables’. As for sellers, the most dominant gaps (<50.0 % compliance) were the way of handwashing and the practice of keeping containers elevated off the ground before, during, and after harvesting. The microbiological analysis confirmed that, in a total of 36 fresh produce samples including mustard greens, cucumber, lettuce, and crown daisy, the number of samples positive for E. coli, Salmonella spp., and L. monocytogenes were 12, 2, and 10 respectively. Samples of hands and the irrigation water showed high contamination with E. coli. Based on identified gaps, risk communication tools were developed and distributed amongst farmers, sellers, and Da Nang food safety management authority (governmental organisation performing inspections in the traditional food markets). As intervention, two farmers and two sellers were trained in safe agricultural practices for the cultivation of fresh vegetables (managerial intervention) and instructed to use tap water as irrigation water instead of uncontrolled surface water (technological intervention). A post-assessment was conducted, including redoing the survey on good practices and microbiological analysis. The outcome of these interventions showed positive results in terms of good agricultural and hygienic practices resulting in improved hygiene levels and safety of the fresh produce. The findings from this research have the potential to provide a model for the development of a science-based risk management strategy in alternative food chains or geographic areas in emerging countries.

Long-term follow up of E3311, a phase II trial of transoral surgery (TOS) followed by pathology-based adjuvant treatment in HPV-associated (HPV+) oropharynx cancer (OPC): A trial of the ECOG-ACRIN Cancer Research Group.

6009 Background: E3311 is a phase II trial of TOS by credentialed surgeons with pathology-driven deintensified post-operative management in HPV+ OPC. Intermediate risk patients were randomized between standard and reduced dose radiation. We present mature outcome data, at median follow up of 52.4 months (m). Methods: Patients were eligible who had resectable cT1-2 stage III/IV AJCC7 p16+ OPC without matted neck nodes. Those with clear margins, 0-1 + nodes (LN), and no extranodal extension (ENE) were observed (Arm A, N=38); those with clear margins, 2-4 + LN, or ENE ≤1mm were randomized to 50Gy (Arm B, N=100) or 60Gy (Arm C, N=108); those with involved margins, &gt;4 + LN, or &gt;1mm ENE received weekly cisplatin 40 mg/m2 and 60-66Gy (Arm D, N=113). Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using a log-rank test, stratified by arm for comparisons of primary site and smoking history. Results: Among 359 evaluable patients, 54-m PFS and OS were 90.6% (90% CI: 87.2%, 93.1%) and 95.3% (90% CI: 93.0%, 96.9%). 54-m PFS by arm was: A 93.2% (90% CI: 79.6%, 97.8%); B 94.9% (90% CI: 89.7%, 97.5%); C 90.2% (90% CI: 82.7%, 94.6%) and D 85.5% (90% CI: 77.5%, 90.8%). 54-m OS by arm was: A 97.1% (90% CI: 85.7%, 99.4%); B 97.9% (90% CI: 93.5%, 99.3%), C 95.1% (90% CI: 90.1%, 97.6%) and D 92.5% (90% CI: 86.9%, 95.7%). Among patients in Arm A, 11 had N0 and 27 N1 stage. Median Arm A lymph node yield (LNY) was 29 (11 to 91 LN) and did not differ for patients with/without recurrence (p=0.83). All Arm A recurrences were in N1 patients: 1 at 18 m and 3 at &gt; 40 m. No significant difference in PFS or OS was observed by prescribed radiation dose for intermediate risk patients (Arm B vs. C). Outcome did not differ by primary site of tonsil vs. other OPC (oOPC): 54-m PFS Tonsil 89.3% (90% CI: 84.9%, 92.5%) vs. oOPC 92.9% (90% CI: 87.0%, 96.2%), p=0.28, and 54-m OS Tonsil 94.6% (90% CI: 91.5%, 96.6%) vs oOPC 96.6% (90% CI: 92.4%, 98.5%), p=0.35. Smoking history also did not impact outcome. 54-m PFS was 89.9% (90% CI: 85.9%, 92.9%) for those with ≤10 pack-years (PY) tobacco exposure and 91.7% (90% CI: 83.9%, 95.9%) for those with &gt;10 PY. Conclusions: TOS, neck dissection with deintensified risk-based post-operative management results in outstanding 54-m PFS and OS across all subsites of T1-2 p16+ OPC, irrespective of smoking history. Late recurrence is not increased when post-operative radiation is reduced from 60 to 50Gy for intermediate risk patients. Pathologic &gt;1mm ENE (N=87), involved margin (N=12) or &gt;4 involved LN (N=30) accurately identify patients at increased recurrence risk and outcomes were favorable among such patients. Among patients with favorable pathologic characteristics, a subset with N1 disease are at risk for late recurrence and further characterization of these patients is warranted. Clinical trial information: NCT01898494 .

Two-year Monitoring of Microbiological Water Quality in Small Water Supply Systems: Implications for Microbial Risk Management.

Small water supply systems (SWSSs) are often more vulnerable to waterborne disease outbreaks. In Japan, many SWSSs operate without regulation under the Waterworks Law, yet there is limited investigation into microbial contamination and the associated health risks. In this study, the microbiological water quality of four SWSSs that utilize mountain streams as water sources and do not install water treatment facilities were monitored for over 2 years. In investigated SWSSs, the mean heterotrophic plate counts were below 350 CFU/mL, and the total bacterial loads (16S rDNA concentration) ranged from 4.71 to 5.35 log10 copies/mL. The results also showed the consistent presence of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), i.e., Escherichia coli and Clostridium perfringens, suggesting the potential of fecal pollution. E. coli was then utilized as an indicator to assess the health risk posed by E. coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter jejuni. The results indicated that the estimated mean annual risk of infection and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) exceeded acceptable levels in all SWSSs for the two reference pathogens. To ensure microbial water safety, implementing appropriate water treatment facilities with an estimated mean required reduction of 5-6 log10 was necessary. This study highlighted the potential microbial contamination and health risk level in SWSSs that utilize mountain streams as water sources, even though the water sources were almost not affected by human activities. Furthermore, this study would also be helpful in supporting risk-based water management to ensure a safe water supply in SWSSs.

Risk-Based Gastrointestinal Parasite Control in a Tropical Zoological Institute

The surveillance and treatment of parasites are important features of preventative healthcare plans in zoological institutes. The parasite control strategies employed in temperate regions often involve prophylactic anthelmintic treatments during seasons where the burden of gastrointestinal parasites in fecal testing is high. These strategies are, however, not applicable in the tropics, where temperatures remain high throughout the year, allowing continuous parasitic development. A risk-based parasite management strategy was adopted by a tropical zoological institute. For parasite surveillance, routine fecal direct smears and magnesium sulfate flotations were performed to determine parasitic prevalence. The frequency of fecal checks for the year was determined by the frequency at which clinically relevant parasitism (fecal tests that resulted in the animal being treated) was detected during routine fecal checks in the previous year. A yearly anthelmintic drug-class rotation schedule was also implemented. The total number of fecal tests performed per year and the number of animals with clinically significant parasitic disease decreased by 30.0% (637/2126) and 46.9% (207/451), respectively, over the four-year period of the study. Anthelmintic class rotation also improved the efficacy of fenbendazole in treating Strongyloides spp. infecting the group of orangutans. This parasite control strategy is a targeted approach to managing preventative healthcare, reducing the work required to perform routine surveillance tests whilst maintaining the health of the collection of animals.

Good Statistical Monitoring: A Flexible Open-Source Tool to Detect Risks in Clinical Trials

BackgroundRisk-based quality management is a regulatory-recommended approach to manage risk in a clinical trial. A key element of this strategy is to conduct risk-based monitoring to detect potential risks to critical data and processes earlier. However, there are limited publicly available tools to perform the analytics required for this purpose. Good Statistical Monitoring is a new open-source solution developed to help address this need.MethodsA team of statisticians, data scientists, clinicians, data managers, clinical operations, regulatory, and quality compliance staff collaborated to design Good Statistical Monitoring, an R package, to flexibly and efficiently implement end-to-end analyses of key risks. The package currently supports the mapping of clinical trial data from a variety of formats, evaluation of 12 key risk indicators, interactive visualization of analysis results, and creation of standardized reports.ResultsThe Good Statistical Monitoring package is freely available on GitHub and empowers clinical study teams to proactively monitor key risks. It employs a modular workflow to perform risk assessments that can be customized by replacing any workflow component with a study-specific alternative. Results can be exported to other clinical systems or can be viewed as an interactive report to facilitate follow-up risk mitigation. Rigorous testing and qualification are performed as part of each release to ensure package quality.ConclusionsGood Statistical Monitoring is an open-source solution designed to enable clinical study teams to implement statistical monitoring of critical risks, as part of a comprehensive risk-based quality management strategy.

A roadmap to reduce the risk of overexploiting EU marine living resources in a changing ocean

We provide a balanced overview of how risk assessment and management is being tackled in the European Union (EU) and beyond to address the challenges of overexploiting marine living resources in EU waters. We aim to guide EU fisheries and aquaculture policymakers towards key actions to foster the transition to responsible, sustainable, clean energy, and resilient fisheries and aquaculture sectors, aligning with EU environmental objectives under the European Green Deal and the Common Fisheries Policy. Despite progress in reducing fishing pressure on some stocks in recent years, most of the stated (single-stock) sustainability objectives still need to be met. The risk of overexploiting marine resources remains high, especially when combined with other pressures such as pollution and climate change. Risk is defined as the probability of an adverse event arising from natural or human activities and excessive pressures. Scientists have documented these pressures, proposing regional risk assessments to support adequate risk-based management of human activities impacting marine and coastal regions. As a next step, we recall actionable short- to long-term recommendations to reduce the risks associated with exploiting these natural resources and ensure their sustainability and resilience. This includes actions the EU can take to improve and implement fisheries policy while prioritising less harmful alternatives among current fishing methods and considering the three pillars of sustainability i.e. environmental, economic and social. Such actions include capturing in scientific advice the strong, causal links between pressures induced by human activities, natural disturbances and ecosystem states; such understanding can be used in an uncertain and changing environment, with ocean productivity possibly trending towards new levels. Finally, we restate that conserving by reducing pressures and restoring the integrity of marine ecosystems is crucial for minimising the risk of overexploitation and ensuring future fishing and farming opportunities. This is the aim of an Ecosystem Approach to fisheries and aquaculture – it should safeguard the long-term economic and social capital already invested by the public and private sectors in exploiting marine living resources to continue delivering healthy, low-carbon, low-impact seafood to EU citizens and beyond.

QC constellation: A cutting-edge solution for risk-based quality management in laboratories

QC constellation: A cutting-edge solution for risk-based quality management in laboratories

Stochastic finite element-based reliability of corroded pipelines with interacting corrosion clusters

The performance of corroded carbon steel pipelines over the course of their design life is generally assessed by probabilistic variables with explicit limit state functions, rather than the realistic representation with stochastic spatial variability and implicit failure considerations. This could be due to the complexities associated with the uncertainty quantification and performance estimation approaches. The consideration of random process representation of corrosion defect propagation and material properties, along with computationally effective implicit formulation is expected to lead to accurate reliability outcomes. This paper proposes a stochastic-based reliability framework considering suitable failure modes represented with surrogate models, that lead to time-variant reliability estimation. The approach combines surrogate computational model with scalar random variables and random field discretisation of underlying characteristics to generate experimental designs and corresponding surrogate models over a time period, which are used to derive reliability estimates. The outcomes of this approach are compared with the results of explicit time-dependent functions. It was observed that reliability estimates of the corroded pipeline change rapidly after the fifth year, providing a much lesser probability of failure (of 3.08×10−3 at 30th-year) compared to the existing models (of 1.80×10−2 at 30th-year), thereby providing an effective pathway for risk-based maintenance and management.