Return Spillovers Research Articles

Time-frequency connectedness among traditional/new energy, green finance, and ESG in pre- and post-Russia-Ukraine war periods

This paper examines how the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine affects the transmission of returns spillovers among traditional/new energy, green finance, and ESG. We evaluate the dynamic and directional risk connectedness across time and at various frequency bands using Diebold and Yilmaz and Baruník and Křehlík approaches. First, there is a noticeable rise in overall connectedness, from 19.36% to 29.99%, and it is more pronounced in the short time. Second, new energy, ESG, and green stocks are closely linked. Third, new energy, ESG, and green stock are main risk transmitters functioning in the long- and short-term respectively after the war. Fourth, the oil market becomes more vulnerable to other markets, changing from a net transmitter to a net receiver. These findings can offer important empirical implications for governments and market participants to copy with the contagion risk during the Russia-Ukraine war.

The Granger Causality of Bahrain Stocks, Bitcoin, and Other Commodity Asset Returns

This study examines the tendency of short-term return spillover across Bahrain stocks, bitcoin, and other commodity assets factoring in the dynamic effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study employed vector autoregression (VAR) model using the daily returns of Bahrain All Shares Index, bitcoin, crude oil, and gold futures from January 2018 to March 2022. The results showed a persistent unidirectional short-term spillover of return from the Bahrain stock market to the futures gold market for both the period before and during the pandemic. Moreover, the results also showed that the significant positive shock in the bitcoin returns as granger-caused by the returns of the Bahrain stock market is only during the period before the pandemic. Finally, a significant negative contemporaneous short-term effect on the crude oil market returns can be statistically explained by the shocks in the Bahrain stock market only during the COVID-19 period.

Upside/Downside spillovers between oil and Chinese stock sectors: From the global financial crisis to global pandemic

This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, recent oil price fall, and both global and European financial crises on dependence structure and asymmetric risk spillovers between crude oil and Chinese stock sectors. Using time-varying symmetric and asymmetric copula functions and the conditional Value at Risk measure, we provide evidence of positive tail dependence in most sectors using copula and conditional Value-at-Risk techniques. We can see the average dependence between oil and industries during the oil crisis. Moreover, we find strong evidence of bidirectional risk spillovers for all oil-sector pairs. The intensity of risk spillovers from oil to all stock sectors varies across sectors. The risk spillovers from sectors to oil are substantially larger than those from oil to sectors during COVID-19. Furthermore, the return spillover is time varying and sensitive to external shocks. The spillover strengths are higher during COVID-19 than financial and oil crises. Finally, oil do not exhibit neither hedge nor safe-haven characteristics irrespective of crisis periods.

Extreme risk spillovers and hedging strategies between Indonesia sectorial stocks and commodity markets

PurposeThis study examines the risk spillovers between Indonesian sectorial stocks (Energy, Basic Materials, Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Consumer Non-cyclical and Financials), the aggregate index (IDX) and two commodities (gold and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil [WTI] futures).Design/methodology/approachThe study uses two methodologies: the TVP-VAR model of Antonakakis and Gabauer (2017) and the quantile connectedness approach of Ando et al. (2022). The data cover the period from October 04, 2010, to April 5, 2022.FindingsThe results show that the IDX, industrials and materials are net transmitters, while the financials, consumer noncyclical and energy sectors are the dominant shock receivers. Using the quantile connectedness approach, the role of each sector is heterogeneous and asymmetric, and the return spillover is stronger at lower and higher quantiles. Furthermore, the portfolio hedging results show that oil offers more diversification gains than gold, and hedging oil is more effective during the pandemic.Practical implicationsThis study provides valuable insights for investors to diversify their portfolios and for policymakers to develop policies, regulations and risk management tools to promote stability in the Indonesian stock market. The results can inform the design of market regulations and the development of risk management tools to ensure the stability and resilience of the market.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine the spillovers between commodities and Indonesian sectors, recognizing the presence of heterogeneity in the relationship under different market conditions. It provides important portfolio diversification insights for equity investors interested in the Indonesian stock market and policymakers.

Quantile and asymmetric return connectedness among BRICS stock markets

We investigate the quantile and asymmetric return connectedness among the BRICS stock exchanges between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2022. Over the years the BRICS stock markets have become emerging market choices for global investors interested in international diversification. As a result, the characteristics of these markets and how they interact with each other are important to international investors. We use quantile connectedness to examine return spillovers, particularly at the extreme left and right tails, as opposed to connectedness in the middle. The group's level of return connectedness, as determined by mean-based connectedness measures is only 30.58%. However, we find that levels of quantile-connectedness are substantially higher when using a unique quantile-based connectedness technique, more than doubling to more than 70% at the extreme upper and lower tails respectively. We also utilise a novel asymmetric connectedness approach that disaggregates overall connectedness into its positive and negative constituents. Positive return connectedness is more pronounced than negative return connectedness.

Dynamic dependencies and return connectedness among stock, gold and Bitcoin markets: Evidence from South Asia and China

Research background: In order to examine market uncertainty, the paper depicts broad patterns of risk and systematic exposure to global equity market shocks for the major South Asian and Chinese equity markets, as well as for specific assets (gold and Bitcoin). Purpose of the article: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic correlation among the major South Asian equity markets (India and Pakistan), the Chinese equity markets, the MSCI developed markets, Bitcoin, and gold markets. Methods: While applying the GARCH-Vine-Copula model and the TVP-VAR Connectedness approach, major patterns of dependency and interconnectedness between these markets are investigated. Findings & value added: We find that risk shocks from developed equity markets are critical in these dynamic links. A net return spillover from Bitcoin to the Chinese and Pakistani stock markets throughout the sample period is reported. Interestingly, gold can be applied to hedge and diversify positions in China and major South Asian markets, particularly following the COVID-19 outbreak. Our paper presents three main original add valued: (1) This paper adds global factors to the targeted study of risk transmission among South Asian and Chinese stock markets for the first time. (2)The assets of Bitcoin and gold were added to the study of risk transmission among South Asian and Chinese stock markets for the first time, enabling the research in this paper to observe the non-linear link among the South Asian and Chinese stock markets with them. (3) Our research adds to these lines of inquiry by giving empirical evidence on how COVID-19 altered the dependent structure and return spillover dynamics of Bitcoin, gold and South Asian and Chinese stock markets for the first time. Our results have critical implications for investors and policymakers to effectively understand the nature of market forces and develop risk-averse strategies.

Multilayer network analysis for measuring the inter-connectedness between the oil market and G20 stock markets

We constructed a multilayer information spillover network containing a return spillover layer, a volatility spillover layer, and an extreme risk spillover layer to explore the system risk in the oil and G20 stock markets during 2006–2022. This paper explores the topology of the static and dynamic multilayer networks from both system-level and market-level perspectives. We find that: (i) At the system-level, the structure of layers is significantly different from each other, and risk is transmitted mainly in the volatility spillover layer. In times of crisis, the spillover effect between layers increases. In addition, multilayer networks are more sensitive to risk identification and can identify risks earlier. (ii) At the market-level, developed markets tend to have high connectivity and act as risk-emitter in spillover networks. Developing markets tend to be risk-receivers. Markets with a homogeneous economic structure are more likely to receive shocks and change from risk-receiving to risk-emitting markets. Multilayer information spillover networks provide comprehensive information on financial linkages between national stock markets, which helps regulators and investors to prevent system risks better and allocate assets appropriately.

Quantile dependencies and connectedness between the gold and cryptocurrency markets: Effects of the COVID-19 crisis

This paper examines the quantile dependence, connectedness, and return spillovers between gold and the price returns of leading cryptocurrencies, using quantile cross-spectral, the return spillovers based the quantile VAR, and quantile connectedness approaches. The results show that the dependencies within cryptocurrencies are highly symmetric and sensitive to different quantile arrangements. Under normal market conditions, we find a high positive dependence within cryptocurrencies and a low positive dependence between cryptocurrencies and gold. The dependence is higher at long term than intermediate- and short- terms before the pandemic during bearish market conditions. In contrast, the degree of dependence decreases at the intermediate- and long-terms during COVID-19 period than before. Moreover, the magnitude of return spillovers is higher at lower quantile (bearish market) than upper quantile (bullish market). Gold serves as a safe haven and diversifier asset for cryptocurrencies during COVID-19 outbreak at both intermediate and long terms.

Better to Give than to Receive: A Study of BRICS Countries Stock Markets

This study uses the MGARCH-BEKK model and Diebold–Yilmaz (DY) volatility spillover index to examine volatility spillovers among BRICS countries’ stock markets. The study finds that the own volatility spillover is more than the cross-markets and has increased during the financial crisis. In contrast, the cross-markets volatility spillovers have decreased after the financial crisis. The total net return spillover increased during the crisis period (27.30%) and the pre-crisis period (25.50%) in comparison with the post-crisis period (6.30%) and the whole sample period (10.70%). Brazil is the highest net volatility transmitter among the BRICS countries’ stock markets, and China is the highest net volatility receiver. We learned from the volatility network connectedness that China is highly connected with India regarding volatility. Foreign institutional investors may use this study’s result to find diversification opportunities across the BRICS stock markets. JEL Codes: F3, G11, G12, G15

Exploring the dynamic connectedness between commodities and African equities

Market participants, regulators, and practitioners might have disregarded the prospective integration of African markets and the integration of commodity markets with traditional markets. We examine the nonhomogeneous return spillovers and contagion between 12 commodity sectors and African equities under the time-varying parameter vector autoregressions connectedness method. With daily datasets from February 2010 to February 2022, the average connectedness analysis suggests a low spillover transmission between commodities and respective African equity markets. We reveal that the return connectedness between commodities and African equities is largely driven by idiosyncratic spillovers. The results from the dynamic connectedness analysis reveal significant spillovers between the studied markets. Our findings underscore financial market contagion during stressed trading periods, suggesting that global commodity and African equity markets are not entirely immune to global market shocks. Therefore, prompt management of commodity price volatility and the integration between economies could result in controlled impacts of financial market contagion. Portfolio managers should deploy effective risk management strategies that capitalise on the nonhomogeneous roles of some assets as diversifiers, hedges, and safe havens across time horizons. Additional implications of our findings are discussed.

Asymmetry in Return and Volatility Spillovers Between Stock and Bond Markets in Turkey

In this study to analyze the asymmetric volatility spillovers. We study in the stock and bond markets in Borsa Istanbul. The research covers 2003-2019. Financial crises have increased the importance of the transition between the stock and bond market. Apart from the full period, the 2008 financial crisis period examines separately in order to see the effects of the spillovers during the crisis period. First, asymmetric volatility tests with the sign bias test. Then, whether the stock and bond market volatility is asymmetric, investigate with the GJR-GARCH model. Finally, asymmetric volatility between the two markets test with the VARMA-AGARCH model. According to the asymmetric volatility test results, negative volatility asymmetry exists in the bond market in full period. Asymmetric volatility is positive in both market in the crisis time. Return spillovers from the stock market to bond market in full period. It is opposite direction during the crisis period. We have found volatility spillovers bidirectional among the stock market and the bond market. However, during the global crisis period, volatility spillover is bidirectional from the stock market to the bond market.

Spillover connectedness between oil and China's industry stock markets: A perspective of carbon emissions

From a new perspective on industry carbon emissions, we divide 34 stock industries in China into three portfolios (Clean Portfolio, Dirty Portfolio, and Ordinary Portfolio). Using a network connectedness approach, we examine the return and volatility spillover connectedness between oil and these three portfolios. We find that Clean Portfolio is the spillover “sender”, and Dirty Portfolio and Brent, especially Brent, are the “receivers”. It reflects the policy-driven feature of Chinese stock market, with a great increasing number of low-carbon industry supporting polices. The return spillover is concentrated on the short-term, while the volatility spillover has a more persistent risk transmission. The public health shock impacts spillovers more than financial shocks. Our results are valuable for investors and policy makers.

Market reactions to trade friction between China and the United States: Evidence from the soybean futures market

In March 2018, the US used an immense trade deficit as an excuse to provoke trade friction with China. This study uses the EGARCH model and event study methods to study the impact of the major risk event of Sino-US trade friction on soybean futures markets in China and the United States. Results indicate that the Sino-US trade friction weakened the return spillover effect between the soybean futures markets in China and the US, and significantly increased market volatilities. As the scale of additional tariffs increased, the volatility of the Chinese soybean futures market declined; however, the volatility of the US soybean futures market did not weaken. In addition, expanding the sources of soybean imports helped ease the impact of tariffs on China’s soybean futures market, while the decline in US soybean exports to China intensified the volatility of the US soybean futures market. In addition, while the release of multiple tariff increases has had a short-term impact on the returns of soybean futures markets, the impact of trade friction has gradually decreased.

RETURN AND VOLATILITY SPILLOVER ACROSS STOCK MARKETS OF THE US AND ITS MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS

ABSTRACT This Study Applies The Diebold And Yilmaz (2012) Spillover Index Methodology To Analyze The Effects Of Return And Volatility Spillovers Between The Us Market And Its Major Trading Partners Using Weekly Stock Market Returns From January 2011 To December 2019. The Findings Provide Credence To The Hypothesis That The Us Market Has Been The Most Influential In Terms Of Return Spillover (259.5) To Other Stock Indexes, With The Biggest Return Spillovers Occurring In The Canadian Market (58.4) And The German Market (57.0). In A Similar Manner, The Us Market Has Been The Biggest Transmitter Of Volatility Spillover (202.3) To Other Stock Indexes, With The Highest Volatility Spillovers Occurring In The Canadian Market (51.8) And The German Market (45.8). The Us Market Has Been The Most Influential Based On Return And Volatility Spillovers. This Finding Also Suggests That The Us And Chinese Markets Are The Least Vulnerable To Foreign Shocks. In Contrast, The Canadian Market Is The Most Vulnerable To External In Terms Of Return Spillover And Volatility Spillover. As A Consequence, Chinese Stock Market Participants Can Still Reap The Rewards Of Diversity. During The Sample Period, However, Integration Across Developed Stock Markets Has Increased, Reducing The Benefits Of Diversity. Keywords Return and Volatility Spillovers, Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) Spillover Index, Rolling Window Analysis

Spillovers and connectedness between Chinese and ASEAN stock markets during bearish and bullish market statuses

PurposeThis study aims to examine the tail connectedness between the Chinese and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) stock markets. More specifically, the authors measure the return spillovers at three quantile levels: median (t = 0.5), lower extreme (t = 0.05) and upper extreme (t = 0.95). The connectedness at extreme upper and lower quantiles provides insightful information to investors regarding tail risk propagation, which ultimately suggests that investors adjust their portfolios according to the extreme bullish and bearish market conditions.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the quantile connectedness approach of Ando et al. (2022) to examine the quantile transmission mechanism among the ASEAN and Chinese stock markets.FindingsThe results show significant evidence of a higher level of connectedness between Chinese and ASEAN stock markets at extreme upper and lower quantiles compared to the median quantiles, which suggests the use of a quantile-based connectedness approach instead of an average-measure-based one. Furthermore, the time-varying connectedness analysis shows that the total spillovers reach the highest peaks during the global financial crisis, the Chinese stock market crash and the COVID-19 pandemic at the upper, lower and median quantiles. Finally, the static and dynamic pairwise spillovers between the Chinese and ASEAN markets vary over quantiles as well.Originality/valueThis study is the first attempt to examine quantile vector autoregression (VAR)-based return spillovers between China and ASEAN stock markets during different market statuses. Besides, the COVID-19 has intensified the uncertainty in Asian countries, mainly China and ASEAN economies.

Extreme connectedness of agri-commodities with stock markets and its determinants

In this paper, we quantify the extreme connectedness between agricultural commodity prices with food and beverage stock market returns. We find that the connectedness of returns relies on the degree of the inverse shock, as suggested by the larger impact of the anticipated shock on the upper and lower tails than the estimated shock on the conditional mean. Additionally, the dynamics of the connectedness of returns monitored in the tail differ from the conditional mean. These two outcomes recommend that using conditional averages is limited and imprecise to analyze returns connected with extreme positive/negative events in agricultural commodities and food & beverage indices. Next, we find the determinants of the extent of the connectedness by employing firm level statistics. We find that some of the determinants driving the return spillovers at upper and lower quantiles are quite different from those driving the return spillovers at the middle quantile.

Time-Frequency Connectedness between Shariah Indices in a Systemic Crisis Era

We examine the time- and frequency-domain spillover connectedness between regional and world Shariah indices. The spillover index approach is employed with data over the period from April 30, 2012, to May 9, 2022, for African, American, Asian, European, and world emerging and developed markets’ Shariah-based equity indices. The results indicate significant time- and frequency-dependent spillovers between Shariah indices. The world and developed markets’ Shariah indices transmit the greatest return spillover to their African and Asian counterparts, which act as net recipients of system spillovers. Our findings show that Asian Shariah assets are a perfect hedge against all relevant market shocks over the last decade. Our findings have implications for Shariah market regulators, investors, practitioners, and policymakers.

Connectedness between DeFi, cryptocurrency, stock, and safe-haven assets

This paper examines return spillovers within and between different DeFi, cryptocurrency, stock, and safe-haven assets. For the period January 2019 to March 2022, we find that DeFi and cryptocurrency asset markets exhibit strong within-market and between-market return spillovers, that stock and safe-haven markets show weak connectedness, and that safe-haven assets are minor receivers and transmitters of between-market spillover effects. The connectedness between markets is time-varying and reveals structural changes in early 2020. Furthermore, we document that financial conditions shape the dynamics of return spillover effects between markets.

Tail dependence, dynamic linkages, and extreme spillover between the stock and China's commodity markets

Cross-market linkage and spillover effects under extreme risk scenarios have recently attracted widespread attention from scholars. However, few studies have focused on tail dependence and extreme spillovers between the stock and the Chinese commodity markets. For the first time, this paper investigates the tail dependence, dynamic linkages, and extreme return spillovers between the stock market and China's commodity markets, employing the novel quantile coherency, DCC-FIGARCH model, and quantile connectedness approach. The empirical results demonstrate that chemical commodities and non-ferrous metals exhibit relatively stronger linkages with the US and Chinese stock markets. Lower return quantiles of the stock markets exhibit higher coherency with the lower return quantiles of Chinese commodity markets in the long-term time horizon. The quantile coherency in the long-term (yearly) is higher than that in the middle (monthly) and short-term (weekly) time horizons. The dynamic linkages and return spillovers change over time and are vulnerable to major crises, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. The return spillovers at the extreme lower quantile are stronger than the spillovers at the extreme upper and median quantiles. Chemical commodity and non-ferrous metal sectors (grain commodity and noble metal sectors) are the two key net transmitters (recipients) of the return spillovers. The Chinese and US stock markets mainly act as the net recipients of the extreme spillovers.

Foreign exchange market return spillovers and connectedness among African countries

This paper examines the foreign exchange return shock spillovers and network connectedness among African countries during crisis periods using (Diebold & Yilmaz, 2012; 2014; 2016) which is based on generalized VAR and network theory between June 2004 and June 2021. Overall, the study found a low system-wide spillover connectedness among African foreign exchange markets. However, the total systemic spillover index increased during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis followed by global financial crisis, indicating evidence of contagion effects. This offers good diversification opportunities in the African currency market during crisis periods. The study also found no significant evidence of spillover effects among African currencies. Nonetheless, the network connectedness analysis found a positive significant pairwise return spillovers from the South African rand, Moroccan dirham and the CFA francs to Botswana pula, and from Moroccan dirham to CFA francs and South African rand. Furthermore, the study found South African rand, Moroccan dirham and CFA francs as the most significant net-transmitter of return shocks to other currencies whiles the Kenyan shilling and Botswana pula are the net-receivers of return shocks from other currencies. These results have implications for African central banks interventions in stabilizing their exchange rates to facilitate intra and inter-African trade and for international portfolio investors in managing their foreign exchange risk exposures.