Arctic Sea Ice Retreat Research Articles

What controls primary production in the Arctic Ocean? Results from an intercomparison of five general circulation models with biogeochemistry

As a part of Arctic Ocean Intercomparison Project, results from five coupled physical and biological ocean models were compared for the Arctic domain, defined here as north of 66.6°N. The global and regional (Arctic Ocean (AO)–only) models included in the intercomparison show similar features in terms of the distribution of present‐day water column–integrated primary production and are broadly in agreement with in situ and satellite‐derived data. However, the physical factors controlling this distribution differ between the models. The intercomparison between models finds substantial variation in the depth of winter mixing, one of the main mechanisms supplying inorganic nutrients over the majority of the AO. Although all models manifest similar level of light limitation owing to general agreement on the ice distribution, the amount of nutrients available for plankton utilization is different between models. Thus the participating models disagree on a fundamental question: which factor, light or nutrients, controls present‐day Arctic productivity. These differences between models may not be detrimental in determining present‐day AO primary production since both light and nutrient limitation are tightly coupled to the presence of sea ice. Essentially, as long as at least one of the two limiting factors is reproduced correctly, simulated total primary production will be close to that observed. However, if the retreat of Arctic sea ice continues into the future as expected, a decoupling between sea ice and nutrient limitation will occur, and the predictive capabilities of the models may potentially diminish unless more effort is spent on verifying the mechanisms of nutrient supply. Our study once again emphasizes the importance of a realistic representation of ocean physics, in particular vertical mixing, as a necessary foundation for ecosystem modeling and predictions.

The potential seasonal alternative of Asia–Europe container service via Northern sea route under the Arctic sea ice retreat

The summer minimum extent of Arctic sea ice shrank drastically in these years, and the opportunity on Arctic international shipping emerged. The Northern Sea Route (NSR), formerly blocked by permanent ice, was completely ice-free in September in the past 3 years. Because this route is much shorter than conventional Asia–Europe shipping lane, many maritime countries have paid attention to exploit the enormous potential of the Arctic Ocean from economical consideration. This study measured the economical advantage of the seasonal NSR by calculating the shipping cost saved.

The reversibility of sea ice loss in a state-of-the-art climate model

Rapid Arctic sea ice retreat has fueled speculation about the possibility of threshold (or ‘tipping point’) behavior and irreversible loss of the sea ice cover. We test sea ice reversibility within a state-of-the-art atmosphere–ocean global climate model by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide until the Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free throughout the year and subsequently decreasing it until the initial ice cover returns. Evidence for irreversibility in the form of hysteresis outside the envelope of natural variability is explored for the loss of summer and winter ice in both hemispheres. We find no evidence of irreversibility or multiple ice-cover states over the full range of simulated sea ice conditions between the modern climate and that with an annually ice-free Arctic Ocean. Summer sea ice area recovers as hemispheric temperature cools along a trajectory that is indistinguishable from the trajectory of summer sea ice loss, while the recovery of winter ice area appears to be slowed due to the long response times of the ocean near the modern winter ice edge. The results are discussed in the context of previous studies that assess the plausibility of sea ice tipping points by other methods. The findings serve as evidence against the existence of threshold behavior in the summer or winter ice cover in either hemisphere.

Closing the loop – Approaches to monitoring the state of the Arctic Mediterranean during the International Polar Year 2007–2008

During the 4th International Polar Year 2007–2009 (IPY), it has become increasingly obvious that we need to prepare for a new era in the Arctic. IPY occurred during the time of the largest retreat of Arctic sea ice since satellite observations started in 1979. This minimum in September sea ice coverage was accompanied by other signs of a changing Arctic, including the unexpectedly rapid transpolar drift of the Tara schooner, a general thinning of Arctic sea ice and a double-dip minimum of the Arctic Oscillation at the end of 2009. Thanks to the lucky timing of the IPY, those recent phenomena are well documented as they have been scrutinized by the international research community, taking advantage of the dedicated observing systems that were deployed during IPY. However, understanding changes in the Arctic System likely requires monitoring over decades, not years. Many IPY projects have contributed to the pilot phase of a future, sustained, observing system for the Arctic. We now know that many of the technical challenges can be overcome. The Norwegian projects iAOOS-Norway, POLEWARD and MEOP were significant ocean monitoring/research contributions during the IPY. A large variety of techniques were used in these programs, ranging from oceanographic cruises to animal-borne platforms, autonomous gliders, helicopter surveys, surface drifters and current meter arrays. Our research approach was interdisciplinary from the outset, merging ocean dynamics, hydrography, biology, sea ice studies, as well as forecasting. The datasets are tremendously rich, and they will surely yield numerous findings in the years to come. Here, we present a status report at the end of the official period for IPY. Highlights of the research include: a quantification of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Nordic Seas (“ the loop”) in thermal space, based on a set of up to 15-year-long series of current measurements; a detailed map of the surface circulation as well as characterization of eddy dispersion based on drifter data; transport monitoring of Atlantic Water using gliders; a view of the water mass exchanges in the Norwegian Atlantic Current from both Eulerian and Lagrangian data; an integrated physical–biological view of the ice-influenced ecosystem in the East Greenland Current, showing for instance nutrient-limited primary production as a consequence of decreasing ice cover for larger regions of the Arctic Ocean. Our sea ice studies show that the albedo of snow on ice is lower when snow cover is thinner and suggest that reductions in sea ice thickness, without changes in sea ice extent, will have a significant impact on the arctic atmosphere. We present up-to-date freshwater transport numbers for the East Greenland Current in the Fram Strait, as well as the first map of the annual cycle of freshwater layer thickness in the East Greenland Current along the east coast of Greenland, from data obtained by CTDs mounted on seals that traveled back and forth across the Nordic Seas. We have taken advantage of the real-time transmission of some of these platforms and demonstrate the use of ice-tethered profilers in validating satellite products of sea ice motion, as well as the use of Seagliders in validating ocean forecasts, and we present a sea ice drift product – significantly improved both in space and time – for use in operational ice-forecasting applications. We consider real-time acquisition of data from the ocean interior to be a vital component of a sustained Arctic Ocean Observing System, and we conclude by presenting an outline for an observing system for the European sector of the Arctic Ocean.

The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss

We discuss the existence of cryospheric "tipping points" in the Earth's climate system. Such critical thresholds have been suggested to exist for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice and the retreat of ice sheets: Once these ice masses have shrunk below an anticipated critical extent, the ice-albedo feedback might lead to the irreversible and unstoppable loss of the remaining ice. We here give an overview of our current understanding of such threshold behavior. By using conceptual arguments, we review the recent findings that such a tipping point probably does not exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Hence, in a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years. In addition, we discuss why this recent rapid retreat of Arctic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent. This variability will render seasonal forecasts of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent increasingly difficult. We also discuss why, in contrast to Arctic summer sea ice, a tipping point is more likely to exist for the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Sea Ice Thickness Measurements from a Community-Based Observing Network

The accelerating retreat of Arctic sea ice in recent years highlights the need for improved monitoring efforts to provide information relevant to decision makers and stakeholders. Satellite data and global circulation models often lack details relevant to residents of Arctic communities, whose livelihoods can be profoundly affected by small changes in sea ice. As part of the Siku-Inuit-Hila (Sea Ice-People-Weather) project, we have established sea ice observation programs in three Arctic communities: Barrow, Alaska; Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada; and Qaanaaq, Greenland. By working with the communities to provide equipment and training, we have mitigated some of the difficulties involved in maintaining field programs in remote parts of the Arctic. We also created a framework for a two-way knowledge exchange between scientists and local sea ice experts. Results from the first season allow us to calculate rates of ice growth and ice melt at the upper and lower surfaces of the sea ice. The sea ice near Qaanaaq grew slowly during the end of winter before undergoing significant bottom melt. From this, we infer a significant source of ocean heat beneath the sea ice near Qaanaaq that was absent in the other communities. Findings such as these are vital for understanding how sea ice might respond on a local scale to global change, and local field observations are currently the only way to acquire the needed data. Close collaboration with Arctic residents can ensure consistent, quality data collection, the incorporation of local knowledge, and a better understanding of how changes affect Arctic communities.

Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice-albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice-albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely.

Sea ice thickness measurement using episodic infragravity waves from distant storms

Abstract The thinning and retreat of Arctic sea ice is one of the most dramatic manifestations of recent climate warming. Though ice extent can be routinely monitored by satellite, ice thickness is far more difficult to measure operationally. We show that small amplitude, long period waves — termed infragravity waves — can be used to measure ice thickness at basin scales by determining their travel time between measurement sites. The waves travel at a different speed in ice than in open water, the difference being a sensitive function of ice thickness. We present measurements from near the North Pole where the travel time of 15 s waves is reduced by around 7 h for a typical 2 m ice thickness. Our results demonstrate that a basin-scale observation network which can track the effect of global change on Arctic sea ice thickness is practical and feasible using current technology.

Summer retreat of Arctic sea ice: Role of summer winds

The unprecedented retreat of first‐year ice during summer 2007 was enhanced by strong poleward drift over the western Arctic induced by anomalously high sea‐level pressure (SLP) over the Beaufort Sea that persisted throughout much of the summer. Comparison of the tracks of drifting buoys with monthly mean SLP charts shows a substantial Ekman drift. By means of linear regression analysis it is shown that Ekman drift during summer has played an important role in regulating annual minimum Arctic sea‐ice extent in prior years as well. In combination, the preconditioning by events in prior years, as represented by an index of May multi‐year ice, and current atmospheric conditions, as represented by an index of July–August–September SLP anomalies over the Arctic basin account for ∼60% of the year‐to‐year variance of September sea‐ice extent since 1979.

On AGU's Position Statement, “Human Impacts on Climate”

I respectfully dissent from the “Human Impacts on Climate” position statement adopted by AGU in December 2007 (Eos, 89(5), 41, 29 January 2008). According to the position statement, human activity has changed climate, “including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land, and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level…” The statement also says, “The observed rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice is expected to continue and lead to the disappearance of summertime ice within this century.”

What drove the dramatic retreat of arctic sea ice during summer 2007?

A model study has been conducted of the unprecedented retreat of arctic sea ice in the summer of 2007. It is found that preconditioning, anomalous winds, and ice‐albedo feedback are mainly responsible for the retreat. Arctic sea ice in 2007 was preconditioned to radical changes after years of shrinking and thinning in a warm climate. During summer 2007 atmospheric changes strengthened the transpolar drift of sea ice, causing more ice to move out of the Pacific sector and the central Arctic Ocean where the reduction in ice thickness due to ice advection is up to 1.5 m more than usual. Some of the ice exited Fram Strait and some piled up in part of the Canada Basin and along the coast of northern Greenland, leaving behind an unusually large area of thin ice and open water. Thin ice and open water allow more surface solar heating because of a much reduced surface albedo, leading to amplified ice melting. The Arctic Ocean lost additional 10% of its total ice mass in which 70% is due directly to the amplified melting and 30% to the unusual ice advection, causing the unprecedented ice retreat. Arctic sea ice has entered a state of being particularly vulnerable to anomalous atmospheric forcing.

Human Impacts on Climate

The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system—including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land, and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons—are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century. Global average surface temperatures increased on average by about 0.6°C over the period 1956–2006. As of 2006, eleven of the previous twelve years were warmer than any others since 1850. The observed rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice is expected to continue and lead to the disappearance of summertime ice within this century. Evidence from most oceans and all continents except Antarctica shows warming attributable to human activities. Recent changes in many physical and biological systems are linked with this regional climate change. A sustained research effort, involving many AGU members and summarized in the 2007 assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, continues to improve our scientific understanding of the climate.

Evolution of Arctic sea ice concentration trends and the role of atmospheric circulation forcing, 1979–2007

The retreat of Arctic sea ice in recent decades is a pre‐eminent signal of climate change. What role has the atmospheric circulation played in driving the sea ice decline? To address this question, we document the evolution of Arctic sea ice concentration trends during the period January 1979–April 2007 in light of changing atmospheric circulation conditions, in particular an upward trend in the wintertime Northern Annular Mode during the first half of the record and a downward trend during the second half. The results indicate that concurrent atmospheric circulation trends contribute to forcing winter and summer sea ice concentration trends in many parts of the marginal ice zone during both periods. However, there is also an emerging signal of overall Arctic sea ice decline since 1979 in both winter and summer that is not directly attributable to a trend in the overlying atmospheric circulation.

Uncertainty in the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to global warming in a perturbed parameter climate model ensemble

[1] The retreat of Arctic sea ice is a very likely consequence of climate change and part of a key feedback process, which can accelerate global warming. The uncertainty in predictions in the rate of sea ice retreat requires quantification and ultimately reduction via observational constraints. Here we analyse a climate model ensemble with perturbations to parameters in the atmosphere model. We find a large range of the sensitivity of Arctic sea-ice retreat to global temperature change, from 11 to 18% per °C. This is placed in the context of the uncertainty obtained by alternative model ensembles. Reasons for the different sensitivities are explored and we find that differences in the amount of ocean and atmospheric heat transported from low to high latitudes dominates over local radiative contributions to the heat budget. Furthermore, we find no significant relationship between the uncertainty in sea ice response to climate change and climate sensitivity.

The Arctic Sea Ice‐Climate System: Observations and modeling

Significant advances are being made in our understanding of the Arctic sea ice‐climate system. The mean circulation of the Arctic sea ice cover is now well defined through analysis of data from drifting stations and buoys. Analysis of nearly 20 years of daily satellite data from optical, infrared, and passive microwave sensors has documented the regional variability in monthly ice extent, concentration, and surface albedo. Advances in modeling include better treatments of sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics, improved atmosphere‐ice‐ocean coupling, and the development of high resolution regional models. Diagnostic studies of monthly and interannual sea ice variability have benefited from better sea ice data and geostrophic wind analyses that incorporate drifting buoy data. Some evidence exists for a small retreat of Arctic sea ice over the last 2 decades, but there are large decadal fluctuations in regional ice extent. Antiphase relationships between ice anomalies in different sectors can be related to changes in atmospheric circulation. Evidence suggests that episodes of significant salinity reduction in the North Atlantic, associated with extensive sea ice in the Greenland Sea, may be a manifestation of a decadal oscillation in the Arctic climate system. Aspects of the Arctic system in need of further attention include the surface energy budget and its variability, particularly with respect to the roles of cloud cover and surface types in summer. Sea ice thickness distribution data remain meager, and there are many unknowns regarding the circulation and hydrologic cycle of the Arctic Ocean and its links to the world ocean. Planned measurements from a new generation of satellites, supported by field programs, will provide much needed data to address these issues.