Retirement Incentives Research Articles

Early retirement incentives and transition into informality

This paper explores the impact of a super early retirement incentive that allowed men to retire as early as 44 years old in Turkey in 1992. Relying on a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, I find that taking up the incentives significantly reduced the labor force participation of middle-aged men in Turkey. Analysis by education categories suggests that the incentives had an impact on both the skilled and unskilled labor force. I find that the policy-induced take-up of pension benefit receipt significantly increased the probability of moving into informal employment contracts. Findings suggest that the probability of informal wage employment increased for low-skilled individuals while the probability of informal self-employment probability increased for high-skilled individuals. Among low-skilled workers, the incentives seem to have relaxed credit constraints.

Retirement Incentives and Decisions Across the Income Distribution: Evidence in Canada

Retirement Incentives and Decisions Across the Income Distribution: Evidence in Canada

Optimal retirement with disability pensions

AbstractThis paper develops a general equilibrium life-cycle model with endogenous retirement that focuses on the interplay between old-age pensions (OAP) and disability pensions (DP) in Germany. Germany has introduced a phased-in increase of the normal retirement age from age 65 to 67 (Reform 2007) and closed off other routes to early OAP retirement. This reform was followed by a phased-in expansion of future DP benefits (Reform 2018). Our simulation results indicate that the first reform will induce a shift toward DP retirement, while the Reform 2018 will even neutralize the financial and economic gains of the Reform 2007 if current DP eligibility and benefit rules remain unchanged. We therefore highlight the increased relevance of DP when reforming the retirement system and retirement incentives in an aging society. Securing the financial stability of public pensions requires activation and rehabilitation of sick elderly in the workforce and tight access to disability benefits.

Policy Forum: Pensions, Retirement Incentives, and the Role of Inflation

This article describes the role of wage and price inflation for the retirement plans and well-being of registered pension plan members. The federal Public Service Pension Plan is used as an example to illustrate how wage and price inflation can be accounted for in pension design. Alternative scenarios illustrate the importance of pension plan provisions for the standard of living afforded retirees as well as incentives to delay retirement and continue working at older ages.

Multi-dimensional and region-specific planning for coal retirements

Early retirement of coal-fired power is essential for remaining in line with the 2°C target set in the Paris Agreement. Plant age plays the major role in designing retirement pathways, however, this overlooks the economic and health costs associated with coal-fired power. We introduce multi-dimensional retirement schedules that account for age, operating cost, and air pollution hazards. Results show that regional retirement pathways vary substantially with different weighting schemes. Schedules based on age would retire capacity mostly in the US and EU, whereas those based on cost or air pollution would shift the majority of near-term retirements to China and India, respectively. Our approach emphasizes that a "one-size-fits-all" strategy is ineffective in addressing global phase-out pathways. It provides the opportunity for devising region-specific pathways that are sound to the local context. Our results involve emerging economies and highlight incentives for early retirement that surpass climate change mitigation and address regional priorities.

Incentivizing Retirement: An Analysis of Cash Retirement Incentives for Chicago Teachers

Retirement incentives are frequently used by school districts facing financial difficulties. They provide a means of either decreasing staff size or replacing retiring senior teachers with less expensive junior teachers. We analyze a one-time retirement incentive in a large school district paid to teachers willing to retire at the end of the 2016–2017 school year that required 1,500 teachers to accept the offer for it to be paid. The analysis uses an estimated structural model of teacher retention—enabling predictions through simulation of what teacher behavior would be in lieu of the incentive. As predicted by the model, too few teachers accepted the incentive and it was not paid. Simulations enable the decomposition of the would-be retirement incentive takers into those that retired because of the retirement incentive (i.e., marginal teachers) and those who would have retired without the incentive. We find that (1) most teachers who receive the retirement incentive would have retired regardless leading to substantial payments to teachers whose decisions are unchanged, (2) marginal teachers are likely to have retired within a couple years without the incentive limiting the period in which a salary gap can recoup the incentive’s costs, and (3) sharp increases in salary over the first years of teaching narrow the salary gap from which potential savings might derive. These mechanisms are common to most school districts so it is unlikely districts using retirement incentives will realize any cost savings if they replace retiring teachers with junior teachers.

Predicting teacher retention behavior: Ex ante prediction and ex post realization of a voluntary retirement incentive offer

Teacher retention and retirement decisions are increasingly affected by retirement benefits as the date of retirement eligibility approaches. As part of an effort to rein in operating costs, Chicago Public Schools sought to induce earlier retirement of senior, hence costlier, teachers by offering a voluntary retirement incentive that would be implemented only if enough teachers indicated their willingness to accept it. We used a structural model to predict teacher willingness to take the incentive, and later, when the number of teachers signing up was realized, we compared predictions to the outcomes. We found that the predicted number of willing takers would be less than required to implement the incentive, and this proved true. Further, the predictions were similar to the patterns of takers by age and year of service, though some differences were apparent. We discuss implications for using structural modeling to inform policy design.

Retiring Unprepared in Abu Dhabi? Predicting Emirati Employees’ Retirement Age and Self-Activation

ABSTRACT The topic of retirement is rarely explored in the context of the Middle Eastern and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This study drew on data from a large-scale survey of retirees in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a universal welfare state characterized by the persistence of the traditional male-breadwinner model and gender roles, to analyze the determinants of retirement timing and post-retirement work. Multi-level regressions were performed to explore the effects of individual, family, institutional, and social-economic factors. The study revealed that Emirati females tended to retire earlier than men to fulfill their domestic duties and informal caregiving roles, rather than to retire together with their spouse. Additionally, early retirement incentives offered by Abu Dhabi pension systems appeared to attract employees into early retirement. On the other hand, securing more financial resources and reduced sense of belonging in society were among the most significant predictors of post-retirement job searching motivations among Emirati retirees.

Public-Employee Pensions and Retirements

Around the time of their adoption, reformers argued pensions would help encourage public employees to retire rather than remain in their jobs indefinitely. However, the significance of specific pension policies for retirements within numerous plans is not well-known. Using new data on service retirements from 81 state-employee defined-benefit plans between 2001 and 2019, I examine pensions’ relationship with retirements, while also accounting for other variables that might matter. The results indicate that early retirement incentives, relaxed post-retirement work restrictions, and higher employee pension contributions are all associated with more retirements, while increased employer contributions and cost-of-living adjustments are associated with fewer. As governments continue to consider fiscal reforms to retirement plans, they also should keep their personnel needs and pensions’ relationships with them in mind.

The old-age pension household replacement rate in Belgium

The objective of the paper is to examine the retirement behaviour of Belgian workers in one-earner households who are automatically granted a more generous old-age pension benefits replacement rate, called the household replacement rate. Following a recommendation of the Belgian Pension Reform Committee, this policy is to be suppressed for new pensioners, except for those receiving the minimum pension. We provide an ex-ante impact evaluation of such reform on both pension sustainability and adequacy measures. Specifically, we test whether the household replacement rate entails a work (dis)incentive mechanism promoting (harming) pension sustainability and furthermore, we analyse the role of the household replacement rate in old-age poverty and inequality measures. To do so, we use the survey dataset SHARE and a discrete time logistic duration model to study the link between retirement and financial retirement incentives created by the social security system. Further, we use a microsimulation model to estimate the magnitude of the assumed impact of the household replacement rate on retirement and we find that this policy generates higher retirement incentives through an income effect. At the same time, we simulate various social security wealth indicators under different household replacement rate scenarios and we find that the household replacement rate could potentially play an important role in decreasing the elderly poverty rate since households with asymmetrical working arrangements are often at the lowest part of the equivalized income distribution. Overall, despite the supposed positive poverty and distributional aspects of this policy, our simulation analysis supports the reform proposal of removing the household replacement rate.

Health insurance, portfolio choice, and retirement incentives

We study optimal portfolio choice and labor market participation in a continuous time setting in which agents face health shocks, medical expenses, and random lifetimes. We explore the implications of different forms of health coverage and study their impact on dynamic portfolios and labor supply decisions. We characterize these effects in semi-closed form, providing tools to measure retirement incentives as a function of relevant state variables and health cover arrangements. A calibration of the model matches empirically observed labor market participation patterns and portfolio decisions of US workers during the last phase of their working lives, while offering insights into the interlinkage between labor market participation, health insurance provision and portfolio choice.

A multi-state model for sick leave and its impact on partial early retirement incentives: the case of the Netherlands

We investigate the effect of part-time and full-time work on health using a Markov framework and generalized linear models to smooth the resulting crude rates. The Chapman-Kolmogorov equations are used for a general solution. We apply this model to assess a partial early retirement incentive in the Netherlands, known as ‘the generation pact’. The smoothed rates imply that working part time does not necessarily mean a better health for the elderly. In fact, men are healthier when working full time, while women fall sick more often when working full time but recover more often as well. However, when comparing the future rates of a person currently aged 50 working full time and using the generation pact, both the recovery and the morbidity rates drop when starting the generation pact. A stylized assessment of the costs associated yields that costs drop by half when using the generation pact.

Routes to retirement, working conditions and quality of life in comparative perspective.

An important response to the challenges of ageing populations has been reforms to decrease the economic incentives for early retirement. For individuals with poor working conditions, however, there is a risk that each additional working year may have negative consequences on their quality of life after retirement. Using data from 12 countries and 3000 individuals from the SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe), this study analyses exit routes from work to retirement in a comparative perspective. Using group-based trajectory modelling, results indicated that poor late-working life working conditions was associated with exit routes with high reliance upon income from different transfer schemes. Using multilevel models, analyses then indicated that the generosity of these transfer schemes has a positive impact on post-retirement quality of life. Limitations and policy implication of the study are discussed at the end.

The Effects of Retirement on Sense of Purpose in Life: Crisis or Opportunity?

Does retirement lead to an existential crisis or present an opportunity to experience a renewed sense of purpose in life? Prior research has documented a negative association between retirement and sense of purpose in life, suggesting that retirement could lead people to feel aimless and lost. We revisited these findings using a quasiexperimental approach and identified the causal impact of retirement on purpose in life. In a nationally representative panel of American adults (N = 8,113), we applied an instrumental-variable analysis to assess how Social Security retirement incentives in the United States drove differences in the likelihood of retirement. Results showed a sizable increase in purpose in life as an outcome of retirement. These improvements were driven by individuals with lower socioeconomic status who retired from dissatisfying jobs. The findings suggest that retirement may provide an opportunity to experience a renewed sense of purpose, especially among socioeconomically disadvantaged populations.

Is there a consensus on the health consequences of retirement? A literature review

AbstractWe investigate the causal effect of retirement on health through literature. We explore the potential mechanisms which explain three effects: the switch from employment to retirement, later retirement, and earlier retirement. The empirical strategies used to identify the causal effects are mainly based on the observation of changes in health status at the legal age for retirement entitlement or on reforms that have led to changes in retirement incentives. Literature renders possible to make several observations on the average effect estimation. Retirement leads to better self‐reported health, less depression, a decrease in healthcare consumption, a decline in cognition and an ambiguous effect on physical health. Later retirement has no effect on mortality, decreases healthcare consumption, and has a negative or non‐significant impact on self‐reported health. Studies on the impact of earlier retirement are scarce due to few natural experiments exploiting such a variation. Lastly, some studies find evidence of heterogeneous effects by gender and occupational status. As there are relatively few studies on this aspect, the question should be seriously explored in future research.

Retirement and voluntary work provision: Evidence from the Australian Age Pension reform

This paper examines the empirical link between retirement and the supply of volunteer labor, using panel data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. To identify the causal impact, we exploit a major reform of the Australian Age Pension which has significantly changed the retirement incentives of older people. We find positive and significant effects of retirement status on the voluntary work provision of older men and women. Longer time spent in retirement increases the unpaid labor supply of women, while there is no such evidence for men. We further find evidence of intra-household retirement externalities: older people’s retirement impacts positively on the volunteer behavior of their family members. Our findings suggest that the Australian Age Pension reform aiming at working life prolongation has led to an unintended shrinkage of the volunteer workforce.

Pensions and Timing of Retirement: The Case of the Public Service Pension Scheme in Uganda

Unsustainable defined-benefit public pension scheme, rising life expectancy, and high level of unemployment endanger the socioeconomic and political stability of Uganda’s economy. This research approaches the problem from labor supply point of view by: (i) analyzing the effect of the public service pension scheme on timing of retirement; (ii) investigating the required early retirement incentives that would increase employment in the public service; and (iii) determining the predictors of postretirement employment in the public service in Uganda. Using a cross sectional secondary dataset of the retired public servants from the Uganda’s Pension Department of the Ministry of Public Service (2016), this study finds the model fitting the observed aggregate retirement behavior very well. Results reveal: first, that the retirement conditions in the public service’s pension scheme in terms of the: mandatory retirement age (MRA), early retirement age (ERA), minimum tenure (MT), and pension benefits; significantly influence timing of retirement. This implies that the public service pension scheme in Uganda can be used as a fiscal tool for addressing labor supply challenges in the country.Second, about 20 percent increment in the monthly pension benefits, and 10-year increment in ERA jointly with a 5-year increment in MRA raises the likelihood of new jobs pace by up to 12.2 percent and 30 percent respectively, through early retirement.This implies that these early retirement incentives can be used to achieve intra-generational equity where some previously employed public servants retire early and survive on pension benefits as few unemployed people join public service to earn a wage.Third, among other predictors, postretirement employment in the public service is explained by:entry age, tenure, and salary. These factors can be used by the government to achieve a sustainable pension scheme through oldage employment (increased labor supply) which reduces the years taken to claim pension benefits.

Teacher pension enhancements and staffing in an urban school district

AbstractMany states enhanced benefits in teacher retirement plans during the 1990s. This paper examines the school staffing effects of one such enhancement in a major urban school district with mostly high poverty schools. Pension rule changes in 1999 for St. Louis public school teachers resulted in large increases in pension wealth for active teachers, as well as a powerful increase in ‘push’ incentives for earlier retirement. Simple descriptive statistics on retirement patterns before and after the enhancements suggest much earlier retirement resulted. Shorter teaching spells imply a steady state with more teacher turnover and a larger share of novice teachers in classrooms. To better understand the long-run effects of these changes and alternative policies, the authors estimate a structural model of teacher retirement. Simulations of retirement behavior for representative senior teachers point to shorter completed teaching spells and earlier retirement age as a result of the enhancements. By contrast, moving from the post-1999 to a DC-type plan would extend the teaching career of a representative senior teacher by roughly two years.

Incentives, Health, and Retirement: Evidence from a Finnish Pension Reform

We analyse the effects of changes in retirement incentives on retirement behaviour, and in particular whether individuals' health status modifes the effects of retirement incentives. We study these issues in the context of the Finnish pension reform of 2005, utilising detailed individual-level administrative data on health and retirement behaviour. Our results indicate that changes in economic incentives matter for retirement behaviour. Many types of individuals react to retirement incentives, and the reaction to economic incentives does not appear to vary according to the individuals' health status in a systematic way. Hence there does not seem to be a trade-off between providing incentives to postpone retirement and equal treatment of individuals with different health status.

Health Insurance, Portfolio Choice, and Retirement Incentives

We study optimal portfolio choice and labour market participation in a continuous time setting in which agents face health shocks, medical expenses, and random lifetimes. We explore the implications of different forms of health coverage and study their impact on dynamic portfolios and labour supply decisions. We characterize these effects in semi-closed form, providing tools to measure retirement incentives as a function of relevant state variables and health cover arrangements. A calibration of the model matches empirically observed labor market participation patterns and portfolio decisions of US workers during the last phase of their working lives, while offering insights into the interlinkage between labor market participation, health insurance provision and portfolio choice.