Retirement Decisions Of Older Workers Research Articles

Unemployment and the Retirement Decisions of Older Workers

This paper examines how unemployment late in workers’ careers affects retirement timing. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation from 1996 to 2011, we document that unemployed workers permanently leave the labor force at a significantly higher rate than employed workers. This effect is stronger once workers become eligible for Social Security benefits. The effect of unemployment on retirement early in an unemployment spell is weaker for workers eligible for UI benefits. Unemployed workers, particularly those workers in households with below median wealth, also have a significantly higher rate of early Social Security uptake shortly after turning 62 relative to employed workers.

The emerging trend of work beyond retirement age in Germany. Increasing social inequality?

Population ageing, demographic change and the financial crisis has put the financial sustainability of the German pension system at risk. In reaction to these challenges, Germany recently abandoned generous early retirement policies and moved towards policies encouraging higher employment among the elderly. In this article we evaluate how these labour market and pension policies affected the retirement decisions of older workers in Germany over the last three decades. Complementing previous research on early retirement, we focus in particular on those working past the mandatory retirement age of 65 years and examine whether the composition of this group of postretirement-age workers has changed over time. We analyse pooled cross-sectional data from three rounds of the German Ageing Survey which allow us to cover the last three decades from 1980 to 2008. Estimating multinomial logit models we distinguish explanatory factors on the individual, organizational and institutional level that frame the decision to leave the labour market before the age of 65, to stop working at 65 or to work past 65. Over the last three decades, the share of German workers leaving the labour market after the mandatory retirement age of 65 has increased markedly. This trend towards working longer has changed particularly among the low educated workforce which in previous decades traditionally has exhibited a tendency to retire early. In contrast to high-skilled workers, the decision to work longer among low-educated workers is mainly driven by financial need (and is usually not in line with their desire or their ability to work for longer). Our findings suggest an increase in social inequality in retirement decisions as a result of the policy shift towards activation. We conclude by arguing for a more fine-grained understanding of the reasons why people work longer. Such research would provide valuable insights into how to design future labour market and pension reforms preventing a rise in social inequalities.

The Great Recession, Housing Wealth, and the Retirement Decisions of Older Workers

To determine how asset values of older workers affect their future retirement decisions, it is important to take into account how asset values change over asset cycles. This study uses Health and Retirement Study data from waves 1992 through 2010 together with restricted Social Security Administration data on respondents’ occupation to estimate models of the age at first self-reported retirement for the subsample of married males. The model covariates include demographic variables, workplace variables, nonhousing financial wealth, and housing equity. The proportional hazard estimates are, for the most part, significant and of the correct sign. The estimated models suggest that declines in housing wealth during the Great Recession lowered retirement probabilities of married males by as much as 14 percent to 17 percent. This delay was offset in cases where the household had defined benefit or contribution pensions.

Stated Preference Analysis of Full and Partial Retirement in the United States

In the traditional retirement scenario, individuals work full-time until a given age and then stop working abruptly. In the alternative partial retirement scenario, individuals work part-time for several years before they stop working. For the individual, partial retirement provides a smooth transition to full-retirement where they gradually adjust to a possibly lower income and more leisure time in full-retirement, and for the economy, it is a potential policy tool to keep people employed longer. The models developed to explain the retirement decisions of older workers are typically estimated using observed data from which it is it is di cult to identify the retirement options available to employees because they are unobserved or the information on these options are incomplete. In particular, employers often do not provide partial retirement opportunities so that adequate historical data are hardly available. In this paper, we use stated preference data to identify the true preferences of individuals for full and partial retirement plans. We consider a choice set of hypothetical full and partial retirement plans, which otherwise could be constrained to the available retirement plans from the employer, and ask the survey respondents of the American Life Panel aged over 40 years old to choose their favorite retirement plan. We analyze the choice of a particular retirement plan and its possible economic and noneconomic determinants.

Economic Consequences of the Great Recession: Evidence from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

The paper uses micro-survey data from successive waves of the Panel Study on Income Dynamics to investigate the distribution of wealth and job losses during the 2007-09 recession for different segments of the population and the effect of the recession on the retirement decisions of older workers. Estimates of wealth losses are constructed for major socioeconomic groups and compared with those of the Survey of Consumer Finances. The panel dimension of the data is used to measure change in the labor force status of workers and to estimate the determinants of the decision to transition from participation in the labor force to retirement. The study concludes that retirement decisions are influenced both by variations in labor market conditions and by the value of household wealth but that labor market exerts a larger impact.

Asset Cycles and the Retirement Decisions of Older Workers

To determine how asset values of older workers affect their future retirement decisions, it is important to take into account how asset values change over asset cycles. This study uses HRS data from waves 1992 through 2008 together with restricted SSA data on geographic location to estimate a model of the age at first self-reported retirement for the subsample of married males. The model covariates include demographic variables, workplace variables, non-housing financial wealth, housing equity and size of mortgage. The proportional hazard estimates are, for the most part, significant and of the correct sign. The estimated models replicate the decisions of the sample members for the period from 2000 to 2007. The models do not replicate the sharp drop in the aggregate retirement rate in the year 2008, the final year of the sample, which is also the first sample year in which non-housing financial wealth and housing equity both declined throughout the United States.

Health insurance and retirement behavior: evidence from the health and retirement survey

This paper studies the role of health insurance in the retirement decisions of older workers. As policymakers consider mechanisms for how to increase access to affordable health insurance for the near elderly, considerations of the potential labor force implications of such policies will be important to consider — potentially inducing retirements just at a time when the labor force is shrinking. Using data from the 1992 and 1996 waves of the Health and Retirement Survey, this study demonstrates that access to post-retirement health insurance has a large effect on retirement. Among older male workers, those with retiree health benefit offers are 68% more likely to retire (and those with non-employment based insurance are 44% more likely to retire) than their counterparts who would lose employment-based health insurance upon retirement. In addition, the study demonstrated that in retirement models, when retiree health benefits are controlled for, the effects of pension coverage are reduced, suggesting that these effects may have been overestimated in the prior literature.

Technological Change and Retirement Decisions of Older Workers

According to human capital theory, technological change will influence the retirement decisions of older workers in two ways. First, workers in industries with high rates of technological change will retire later if there is a net positive correlation between technological change and on-the-job training. Second, an unexpected change in the rate of technological change will induce older workers to retire sooner because the required amount of retraining will be an unattractive investment. We matched industry data on productivity growth and occupational data on required training with data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Older Men to test these hypotheses. Our results support both hypotheses.