Retail Gasoline Prices Research Articles

Trade Balance and Fuel Demand in Kosovo

Abstract Gasoline and diesel are the main sources of fuel required for modern life and transportation, and the adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices has become a major public issue. The drastic fluctuations in recent international oil prices have affected retail gasoline and diesel prices also in the Western Balkan countries and prompted public opinion to question the pricing behaviors of oil companies. Kosovo, in the period of 17 years, has gone from a post-conflict environment into a state which is considered to be under transition. It has passed the reconstruction period by orienting itself toward the economic development and European Integrations. Price and income elasticities of gasoline demand show whether the price policy, pursued by the Kosovo government, can decrease the high gasoline consumption sufficiently or not. The high deficit of the current account of balance of payments is also a concern for the Kosovo’s economy; which is estimated up to 17.3% of the GDP after the foreign intervention. The deficit of current account is being considered is related to the energy dependency. Therefore, in order to overcome such problems, control over the gasoline demand is needed to control the deficit of current accounts. Keywords: oil price, economic development, imports, trade deficit.

An econometric analysis of retail gasoline prices in a border metropolitan economy

Previous studies show that a variety of different variables influence retail gasoline price fluctuations. In the case of El Paso, Texas, those variables would include wholesale gasoline prices, local economic conditions, weather, and, more uniquely, cross-border economic variables associated with Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, in Mexico. To analyze the contributions of these variables to monthly price movements for gasoline in El Paso, a theoretical model is specified. From the latter construct, a reduced-form equation is extracted. That specification is then expressed within an error correction framework to allow accounting for both long-run and short-run behaviors in this metropolitan economy. Results indicate that the border poses a fairly substantial barrier to normal trade and purchasing patterns for this product within this specific region.

Retail and wholesale gasoline price adjustments in response to oil price changes

This research examines the long-run relationship between the spot oil price and retail and wholesale gasoline prices. Recent research suggests that the response of the retail gasoline price is faster and the size of the change is larger, in magnitude, following a crude oil price increase compared with periods when the crude oil price is falling; however, some recent papers examining potential asymmetries present mixed results. Our results from a common threshold model estimating the adjustment of gasoline prices and the spot oil price suggest a long-run relationship between retail and wholesale gasoline prices and the crude oil price. Further, results here suggest that both retail and wholesale gasoline prices respond symmetrically to an oil price shock in the long run, indicating little market power by gas stations and wholesalers.

Is Allowed to Increase Domestic Gasoline Prices?

Russian domestic ruble retail and wholesale gasoline prices have stayed below the level predicted by the law of one price (LOP) over the first few months of 2015. The main factors of phenomenon are the rigidity of Russia's domestic gasoline prices, infrastructural or regulatory trade constraints, and possible changes in the Russian gasoline export price structure. Current situation implies that we can expect a probable increase of domestic gasoline prices in the nearest future.

The Dynamics of Gasoline Prices: Evidence from Daily French Micro Data

Using millions of individual gasoline prices collected at a daily frequency, we examine the speed at which market refined oil prices are transmitted to consumer liquid fuel prices. We find that on average gasoline prices are modified once a week and the distribution of price changes displays a M-shape as predicted by a menu-cost model. Using a reduced form state-dependent pricing model with time-varying random thresholds, we find that the degree of pass through of wholesale prices to retail gasoline prices is on average 0.77 for diesel and 0.67 for petrol. The duration for a shock to be fully transmitted into prices is about 10 days. There is no significant asymmetry in the transmission of wholesale price to retail prices.

The Dynamics of Gasoline Prices: Evidence from Daily French Micro Data

Using millions of individual gasoline prices collected at a daily frequency, we examine the speed at which market prices of refined oil are transmitted to retail gasoline prices in France. For that, we estimate a reduced‐form model of state‐dependent pricing where thresholds triggering price changes are allowed to vary over time and depend on the duration since the last price change. We find that the degree of pass‐through of wholesale prices to retail gasoline prices is on average 0.77 for diesel and 0.67 for petrol and depend on local market characteristics. The duration for a shock to be fully transmitted into prices is about 10 days. There is no significant asymmetry in the transmission of wholesale price to retail prices. Finally, the duration since the last price change has a significant effect on thresholds triggering price changes but a large variance of idiosyncratic shocks on thresholds is also crucial to replicate the size distribution of price changes.

Is the German Retail Gas Market Competitive?

We explore whether non-competitive pricing prevails in Germany’s retail gasoline market by examining the influence of the crude oil price on the retail gasoline price, focusing specifically on how this influence varies according to the brand and to the degree of competition in the vicinity of the station. Our analysis identifies several factors other than cost – including the absence of nearby competitors and regional market concentration – that play a significant role in mediating the influence of the oil price on the retail gas price, suggesting price setting power among stations.

Refinery Exchange Agreements: Pro‐Competitive, Anti‐Competitive or Benign?

AbstractThis study examines the impact of the termination of refinery exchange agreements on retail petrol prices in Melbourne and Sydney in July 2002. This is done using autoregressive integrated moving average methodology coupled with intervention analysis using average weekly retail petrol price data. It is found the termination of refinery exchange agreements was associated with an increase in relative retail petrol prices. It is concluded that refinery exchange agreements were pro‐competitive, leading to relatively lower retail petrol prices for consumers arising from reduced transaction costs.

Detailed Data and Changes in Market Structure: The Move to Unmanned Gasoline Service Stations

We illustrate the impact of detailed data in empirical economic research by considering how the increased data availability has changed the scope and focus of studies on retail gasoline pricing. We show how high-volume, high-frequency price data help to identify and explain long-term trends using original data for the Dutch retail gasoline market. We find that 22% of the observed increase in the highway/off-highway price gap can be explained by the trend towards more unmanned stations; another 13% can be explained by major-to-nonmajor re-brandings. In one of the first applications of event study analysis to non-financial price data, we show that the adjustment to the new, lower price level is almost immediate in case of manned-to-unmanned conversions but takes one to two months in case of major-to-non-major rebrandings. The impact of both events is asymmetric with no measurable price impact of changes in the opposite direction.

Rockets and feathers meet Joseph: Reinvestigating the oil–gasoline asymmetry on the international markets

We reinvestigate the “rockets and feathers” effect between retail gasoline and crude oil prices in a new framework of fractional integration, long-term memory and borderline (non)stationarity. The most frequently used error-correction model is examined in detail and we find that the prices return to their equilibrium value much more slowly than would be typical for the error-correction model. Such dynamics is usually referred to as “the Joseph effect”. The standard procedure is shown to be troublesome and we introduce two new tests to investigate possible asymmetry in the price adjustment to equilibrium under these complicated time series characteristics. On the dataset of seven national gasoline prices, we find no statistically significant asymmetry. The proposed methodology is not limited to the gasoline and crude oil case but it can be utilized for any asymmetric adjustment analysis.

Price and Income Elasticities of Fuel Demand in Kosova

Gasoline and diesel are the main sources of fuel required for modern life and transportation, and the adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices has become a major public issue. The drastic fluctuations in recent international oil prices have affected retail gasoline and diesel prices also in the Western Balkan countries and prompted public opinion to question the pricing behaviors of oil companies. Kosova, in the period of 17 years, has gone from a post-conflict environment into a state which is considered to be under transition. It has passed the reconstruction period by orienting itself toward the economic development and European Integrations. Price and income elasticities of gasoline demand show whether the price policy, pursued by the Kosova government, can decrease the high gasoline consumption sufficiently or not. The high deficit of the current account of balance of payments is also a concern for the Kosova’s economy; which is estimated up to 17.3% of the GDP after the foreign intervention. The deficit of current account is being considered is related to the energy dependency. Therefore, in order to overcome such problems, control over the gasoline demand is needed to control the deficit of current accounts. Keywords: oil price, economic development, imports, trade deficit.

Testing for and dating structural break in smooth time-varying cointegration parameters, with an application to retail gasoline price and crude oil price long-run relationship

This paper outlines a methodology to test for structural break in a smooth time-varying cointegration model. We show how such a problem can be brought down to the standard procedure proposed by Hansen (J Bus Econ Stat 10:321–335, 1992). As an application, we investigate the long-run relationship between the crude oil price and the gasoline retail price for Switzerland.

Do retailers set optimal prices in the case of the retail gasoline market?

How should gasoline retailers respond to other competing retailers and to changes in commodity gasoline prices to set their own prices over time? This question opens the door to an important discussion on price-setting strategies in the retail gasoline market. Retail gasoline price data, both panel and time series, is of great interest in the economic arena since it allows the testing of many theories about price formation, oligopolistic pricing, and consumer search. In this study, we present results from a unique new dataset, including daily sales, cost, and price data from 100 retail gasoline stations in a western European country. With this data, we empirically test various economic models to confirm, in full or in part, some earlier results based on North American data. We discuss a special case in which we empirically fit a model where retailers set prices partly in response to local competitors' prices.

How do Consumers Respond to Gasoline Price Cycles?

This paper empirically studies how consumers respond to retail gasoline price cycles. Our analysis uses new station-level price data from local markets in Ontario, Canada, and a unique market-level measure of consumer responsiveness based on web traffic from gasoline price reporting websites. We first document how stations use coordinated pricing strategies that give rise to large daily changes in price levels and dispersion in cycling gasoline markets. We then show consumer responsiveness exhibits cycles that move with these price fluctuations. Through a series of tests we find that forward-looking stockpiling behavior by consumers plays a central role in generating these patterns.

Long- and short-run price asymmetries and hysteresis in the Italian gasoline market

Using monthly data from 1994 to 2013 we study the long-run relation of the pre-tax retail prices of gasoline with crude price and the nominal exchange rate. We find a strongly significant long-run relation. We then use the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model to assess the asymmetries on both the short- and long-run elasticities, as well as the presence of hysteresis in the pricing behaviour. The estimation results confirm the presence of asymmetry in the long-run elasticities, with significant differences between the crude price and the exchange rate, as well as the presence of hysteresis in the relation between the retail price of gasoline and crude oil price.

Are unleaded gasoline and diesel price adjustments symmetric? A comparison of the four largest EU retail fuel markets

The purpose of this paper is to examine the nature of price adjustments in the gasoline markets of Germany, France, Italy and Spain. We examine whether crude oil prices are transmitted to the retail gasoline prices in the short and long run and we test the symmetry of price adjustments hypothesis. An Error Correction Model, which accounts for possible asymmetric adjustment behavior, is applied for the estimation of the international crude oil price pass-through and testing of the symmetric/asymmetric nature of the retail fuel price adjustments in these economies. Our results show that rigidities in the transmission process exist but the retail fuel speed of upward/downward price adjustment to equilibrium is considered as symmetric in all four economies analyzed. Thus, our findings on the whole do not provide firm evidence to support the “rockets and feathers” hypothesis that crude oil price increases are passed along to the retail customer more fully than the crude oil price decreases.

Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior

Gasoline taxes can be employed to correct externalities from automobile use and to raise government revenue. Our understanding of the optimal gasoline tax and the efficacy of existing taxes is largely based on empirical analysis of consumer responses to gasoline price changes. In this paper, we examine directly how gasoline taxes affect gasoline consumption as distinct from tax-inclusive retail gasoline prices. We find robust evidence that consumers respond more strongly to gasoline tax changes under a variety of model specifications. We discuss two potential reasons for our main findings as well as their implications. (JEL D12, H21, H25, H31, L71, Q35)

Regulating Gasoline Retail Markets: The Case of Germany

Abstract In 2011, price peaks in retail gasoline prices caused public outrage and attracted the attention of German regulatory agencies. After having examined the market, competition authorities concluded that tacit collusion existed but could not easily be prosecuted under given competition law. In several other countries, various types of regulatory schemes are implemented to tackle tacit collusive behavior, e.g., there are price ceilings established in Luxembourg or per day limits of price increases given in Austria. However, research has found that none of them has led to satisfactory results. Hence, the following paper proposes a different regulatory approach, i.e., the implementation of corrective taxes. Results show that a specially tailored tax on price successfully manages to render collusion an unprofitable business by collecting marginal profits and that the inherent vice of the gasoline retail market, i.e., the transparency that enables tacit—and therefore non-prosecutable—collusion, could be turned into a regulatory virtue as it becomes a powerful means to help successfully tackle imperfect competition and to bring about a more efficient market outcome.

Gasoline price predictability in a border metropolitan economy

This study examines the predictability of local retail gasoline prices in the El Paso metropolitan economy. Given its location on the border with Mexico, the potential influence of cross-border economic variables on gasoline prices in El Paso is taken into account. The study uses monthly frequency time series data from 2001 to 2013. Because historical consumption data are not available, the error correction econometric model employs a reduced form equation in which gasoline prices are functionally dependent on several explanatory variables. Out-of-sample price simulations are compared against random walk and random walk with drift benchmarks. Results obtained indicate that the econometric approach performs fairly well relative to both benchmarks.

The Effects of Gasoline Price Regulations: Experimental Evidence

Petrol prices tend to be subject to regular changes, often changing more than once a day in many countries, and the number of changes appears to increase. For example, a recent sector inquiry by Germany’s competition authority has found that the number of price changes has almost tripled between 2007 and 2010. At the same time, economic theory suggests that gasoline retail markets are prone to collusive behavior. Oligopoly market structures prevail, market interactions occur frequently, prices are highly transparent, and demand is rather inelastic. As a result, a public debate has emerged whether or not to adopt regulatory pricing rules for gas stations similar to those implemented in Austria, parts of Australia, Luxembourg or parts of Canada. In order to increase consumer welfare these rules either restrict the number of price changes per day or they limit the mark-up for gasoline retail prices. As theoretical predictions about the impact of these measures are mixed and empirical studies rare, we analyze the effects, using an experimental gasoline market in the lab. Our results reveal that two of the suggested rules rather decrease consumer welfare: The Austrian rule which only allows one price increase per day (while price cuts are always possible) and the Luxembourg rule which introduces a maximum markup for retailers. While no rule tends to induce lower retail prices, the Western Australian rule which allows at most one daily price change (no matter whether up or down) does at least not harm consumers.