Response Plan Research Articles

Risk–Response Budgeting: A Financial Optimization Approach to Project Risk Management

Projects are exposed to risks that may hinder their success regarding cost, schedule, and quality/content. After identifying these risks, the project manager must select a subset for mitigation, constrained by a limited risk response budget. The problem lies in the uncertainties surrounding risk realization, their impact on the project’s parameters, and the outcomes of the risk response plan. This paper proposes a method for allocating the risk–response budget to mitigate project risks. The method begins with a Monte Carlo simulation to assess each risk’s impact and residual impact post-mitigation. These simulation results are the input for mathematical programming calculations, determining the optimal budget allocation among the risks based on various objective functions (e.g., maximizing expected net savings or minimizing variance). Each objective function can yield a different optimal budget allocation, so the final step involves weighing all results to make a conclusive decision. A case study illustrates the proposed method.

Evacuation patterns and socioeconomic stratification in the context of wildfires

Wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense, leading to increased evacuation events that disrupt mobility and socioeconomic structures, impacting access to resources, employment, and housing. Understanding the interplay between these factors is crucial for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. We analyse evacuation patterns during the wildfires that occurred in Valparaíso, Chile, on February 2-3, 2024, using high-definition mobile phone records. Applying a causal inference approach combining regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences, we focus on socioeconomic stratification to isolate the wildfire impact on different groups. We find that many people spent nights away from home, with the lowest socioeconomic group staying away the longest. Overall, people reduced their mean and median night-to-night travel distances during the evacuation. Movements initially became irregular but later concentrated in areas of similar socioeconomic status. Finally, we demonstrate a comparability potential of the mobile phone records to the Facebook Disaster Maps, although the latter have a coarse time resolution and are generated only after the wildfire onset. Our results highlight the role of socioeconomic differences in evacuation dynamics, offering valuable insights for response planning.

Integrative deep learning framework for analysing population density shifts and flood inundation patterns

ABSTRACT This study introduces a robust deep learning framework to analyze the relationship between population density changes and flood inundation, which is crucial for improving disaster management and urban resilience strategies. As the environment changes, population grows rapidly, and infrastructure advances, it is vital to ensure urban areas can withstand floods while maintaining functionality and safety. Preparedness through anticipation and resource allocation in high-risk areas enhances risk assessment. Using high-resolution satellite imagery, socio-economic datasets, and a modified U-Net architecture to process multispectral and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, the study generates detailed maps of population shifts and flood extents. The Intersection over Union (IoU) metric rigorously validates the model's accuracy in predicting and mapping flood and population data. The findings show significant correlations between flood events and population distribution changes, offering empirical insights into infrastructure development and resilience planning. These insights help develop effective policies to manage urbanization and population in flood-prone areas. Additionally, the results provide data-driven insights for infrastructure and resilience planning in response to climate change challenges. This information aids policymakers in addressing the impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities, supporting community empowerment, and facilitating early restoration post crisis.

The influence of social norms on hunters’ decision to test deer for chronic wasting disease

ABSTRACT Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a rapidly-spreading wildlife disease hindering the health of deer populations, including white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus. Hunter compliance with management, such as testing their deer for CWD, is needed for CWD response plans to be successful. However, the role of social norms on hunters’ behaviors in the CWD context has not been evaluated. A questionnaire was administered to North Carolina hunters in the 2022–2023 deer hunting season to assess how norms influenced their decision to test deer for CWD. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to determine the strength of these relationships and found that both personal norms and perceived social norms had an impact on whether a hunter tested their deer for CWD, with perceived social norms having a stronger effect. Results from this study can help predict testing compliance rates and enhance CWD testing efforts to encourage more participation within the hunting community.

The ethical considerations of primordial pandemic prevention from a one health perspective

BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has left a devastating global toll. As such, there is a strong impetus to prevent future global pandemics. Ethical considerations are an integral element of pandemic preparedness and response plans and should be incorporated into any pandemic prevention plan to explicitly examine the incorporated values from various stakeholders. Our study aims to determine the ethical considerations of primordial pandemic prevention from a One Health perspective.MethodsThis was a prospective Delphi consensus seeking-study. We aimed to recruit a purposive, globally representative sample of experts in the fields of public health ethics, One Health ethics, pandemic ethics and pandemic prevention. Two rounds were completed between November 2021, and January 2022. The first round consisted of open-ended questions to establish ethical considerations for primordial pandemic prevention. Thematic analysis was used to uncover themes. The second-round presented the ethical consideration results of the first round, and asked participants to rate the importance of each of them.ResultsThe first-round had 27 participants, and the second-round had 25 participants. Both rounds had global representation from all intended fields of expertise. There were five ethical considerations for which consensus was achieved: Promoting equity, global collective effort, distributive justice, evidence-based efficiency and the interconnectedness of humans, animals and the environment.ConclusionsOur study identified five ethical considerations for primordial pandemic prevention from a globally representative sample. The findings will contribute to current and future pandemic prevention policy, and expand ethics research in the fields of One Health, pandemic prevention and zoonotic disease control.

RESILIENCE ENHANCEMENT OF TOURISM SUPPLY CHAIN AMID UNCERTAIN SITUATIONS: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, A CASE IN POINT

Derived from Supply Chain Management (SCM), Tourism Supply Chain (TSC) is the integration of tourism-related activities, and is more sensitive to an uncertain event like a natural disaster due to its high dependency on nature. Moreover, compared to developed countries, the TSC in developing countries like Pakistan is more susceptible to natural disasters and disruptions owing to the country’s weak infrastructure. As a result, the tourism sector in developing countries faces serious threats because of their weak resistance to uncertain natural disasters. Therefore, this study aims to enhance the resilience of the TSC in developing countries by evaluating different threats in top tourism hotspots using the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP). Then, based on the FAHP results, Fuzzy Quality Function Deployment (FQFD) is used to propose the best risk mitigation strategies to deal with those threats. Furthermore, the study also estimates the cost of implementing the top mitigation strategy in developing countries to check the practicality of the results. The results showed that planning and implementation of emergency response is the best strategy to deal with natural disasters in Pakistan. Similarly, real-time monitoring and forecasting ranked as the second-best strategy to enhance TSC resilience. The use of FAHP-based FQFD in the area of tourism and improving its resilience, especially from the lens of developing countries is the prime novelty of the study.

Case study of the impact of an outbreak of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) on a seabird colony in Flintshire, Wales, United Kingdom

ABSTRACT Capsule Adult Black-headed Gulls Chroicocephalus ridibundus brought the HPAI infection to a mixed gull and tern breeding colony, but were less severely affected than adult Common Terns Sterna hirundo. Aims To report the impact of a 2023 major HPAI outbreak on populations of Black-headed Gulls and Common Terns at a colony at Shotton, Flintshire (Wales), and make recommendations for dealing with future HPAI impacts on breeding gulls and terns. Methods We examined the number of birds affected by HPAI by species and age, tracking the infection through the colony and detailing measures taken to respond to the outbreak. Results In total, 236 adult Black-headed Gulls (9% of the colony) and 1226 chicks were found dead, reducing the number of fledglings from 1250 in 2022 to 75–100 in 2023. Compared to the gulls, proportionally more adult Common Terns died: 320 carcasses and 171 nests were counted in 2023, indicating a minimum adult mortality of 40%. Data from the 2024 breeding season implied a 75% reduction of breeding Common Terns. Among the dead terns in 2023, 69% of those previously ringed at Shotton were initially captured in 2014–2019, but after accounting for natural mortality there was no age-related bias in HPAI mortality. The lack of an action plan and decision-making delays resulted in carcasses remaining uncollected for 28 days, after which 378 dead adults and 376 dead chicks were removed. Conclusion Black-headed Gulls suffered very high levels of chick mortality but modest adult deaths, which were unlikely to have significantly impacted the colony’s viability. Common Terns were severely impacted by HPAI at the already struggling colony, and 2024 counts underscored the threat to colony’s viability. HPAI outbreaks require a rapid response, and required actions are straightforward for an organized team. Managers should prepare an advance response plan with personnel comfortable with the tasks required.

PERANCANGAN EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN PADA MULTI-APPROVAL CONCEPT OF SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM MANUAL TINGKAT INSTITUSI

Concern for occupational health and safety is important in the activity of an institution, including education, which has potential dangers and risks related to health and safety of all individuals in institutional environment. Indonesian Aviation Polytechnic Curug is an educational institution with various health and safety risks but currently does not have an integrated emergency response plan document at the institutional level. This research aims to prepare an emergency response plan document as a reference for handling emergencies, including emergency response procedures and all possible emergencies. The method used is Research and Development. This research began with the stages of identifying potential incidents, drafting an emergency response plan, carrying out validation, product trials through tabletop exercises, usage trials through full simulation, and mass production. The research results show that emergency response plan document can improve emergency teams' readiness and coordination. Evaluation of product trials resulted in average score above 80%, indicating high effectiveness in aspects of command, communication, and coordination between teams. The full simulation results that emergency response plan clarifies the roles and responsibilities of the emergency response team, even though there are challenges in the internal communication system that require the provision of communication facilities for each team. This institutional level emergency response plan product can be a comprehensive, easy to understand, and structured guide because it provides instructions on how to act in various emergency scenarios. Future research can analyze other aspects of occupational safety and health, such as psychological and social of emergency response teams.

The Role of Economic Determinants in the Organization of Land Use and Their Impact on the Interconnectedness of Urban Sectors

The present paper investigates sustainable urban development, as mandated by the state’s land-use regulations. It explores the interrelationship among various city sectors based on a guiding plan. Moreover, it delves into the integration of services and facilities across the city and its outskirts. The research analyzes the interactions among these components—whether through attraction, clustering, disintegration, or separation—under the economic determinants that affected the regulation of contemporary land uses. This study underscores the importance of strategically positioning services and installations to enhance connectivity, minimize costs and adhere to deadlines. Yet, due to a past disregard for economic regulatory principles, urban planners have failed to fully grasp the significance of integrating economic strategies into urban planning. This oversight has resulted in the misconception that economic planning takes precedence over urban planning. Urban planning is crucial for the effective execution of development projects, and economic regulations go beyond simple cost assessment, as they are a scientific field focused on maximizing resource allocation for guiding planning choices. This subject was chosen to highlight the importance of both urban planning and economic regulations. The complementarity between these two domains will enable the harmonization of numerous urban development decisions pertaining with the demands of social well-being, thereby facilitating effective planning in response to the continuous evolution of urban growth.

Advancing Social Sustainability in BREEAM New Construction Certification Standards

BREEAM (Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method) is widely recognized for promoting environmental sustainability in the built environment, with a strong focus on energy efficiency, resource management, and ecological impact. However, as sustainability entails environmental and economic dimensions but also social dimensions, the current BREEAM New Construction standards do not fully address social sustainability targets. This article explores the potential for expanding BREEAM New Construction standards to more comprehensively incorporate social sustainability, ensuring that certified projects contribute to the well-being of their occupants and surrounding communities. Through a review of existing BREEAM categories, technical manuals, standards, and an analysis of gaps related to social sustainability, this paper identifies key areas for potential improvement, including user satisfaction, protecting workers’ and human rights, legacy planning, education and skills, and emergency response planning. These gaps are mapped against existing BREEAM categories and credits, with recommendations to introduce additional credits across the categories of management, materials, energy, waste, land use and ecology, health and well-being, and water. Additionally, this paper highlights the importance of transdisciplinary collaboration—bringing together architects, urban planners, social scientists, and public health experts—to effectively address the complexity of social sustainability in building design and certification. The proposed additions to BREEAM New Construction standards, alongside recommendations for industry and policymakers, offer guidelines for the evolution of green building certifications toward a more holistic approach to sustainability. This shift ensures that future certified buildings reduce environmental impact and promote social equity, health, and community well-being simultaneously.

High prevalence and non-suppression of HIV/AIDS in the East and Central African region heightens risk of severe outcomes for Clade I monkeypox virus infection, and may be a driver for subsequent adaptation

High prevalence and non-suppression of HIV/AIDS in the East and Central African region heightens risk of severe outcomes for Clade I monkeypox virus infection, and may be a driver for subsequent adaptation

Declaring and Planning for the Overdose Epidemic: Predictors of Opioid Overdose Policy Enactment

ABSTRACTWithin the last decade, public health epidemics have become more prevalent, prompting US state and government agencies to reassess how they respond to these crisis events. This is especially true for the opioid overdose epidemic, which continues to have a rising death toll despite significant investment from the US government. Utilizing strategies developed within the field of emergency management, state governments are becoming more involved in responding to the overdose epidemic by implementing state response plans and emergency health declarations. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these responses when transferred to a public health context. To fill this gap, this study conducted a legislative scan and plan quality assessment to examine the influence of plans, the quality of plans, and emergency declarations on policy enactment from 2010 to 2020. Using random‐effects Poisson regression models, this study found that the presence of overdose response plans increased the amount of time it took to pass overdose‐related policies, while emergency declarations increased the number of policies enacted the next year. These findings reveal that some strategies taken from the field of emergency management can be translated to a public health context, but careful consideration should be given to the time constraints of these options.

Effects of a Short-Term Detraining Period on Neuromuscular Performance in Female Handball Players.

García-Sánchez, C, Jiménez-Ormeño, E, Lominchar-Ramos, JM, Giráldez-Costas, V, McMahon, JJ, and Soriano, MA. Effects of a short-term detraining period on neuromuscular performance in female handball players. J Strength Cond Res 39(3): e469-e477, 2025-The aim of this study was to determine the effects of a 3-week detraining period on lower limbs' neuromuscular performance in female handball players. Fourteen semi-professional players (age: 20.50 ± 2.98 years; height: 1.67 ± 0.06 m; body mass: 66.89 ± 8.75 kg) were evaluated using force plates on 3 separate occasions to assess the maximum and rapid force production by the isometric mid-thigh pull (IMTP) and the ballistic capabilities by countermovement jump (CMJ). The intraclass correlation coefficient, coefficient of variation, standard error of the measurement, and smallest detectable difference were calculated using the first 2 testing sessions. Pre- and postdetraining differences were calculated comparing the first and third testing sessions, using paired t -tests or Wilcoxon test when appropriate and Hedges g effect sizes (ES). The level of significance was set at ρ ≤ 0.05. There were no significant or meaningful differences in maximum and rapid force production capabilities assessed during the IMTP ( p > 0.05). However, there was a significant detriment with small ES in CMJ jump height, modified reactive strength index, peak and mean propulsive force, peak and mean braking force, and braking phase duration ( p < 0.05). These findings suggest that although maximum and rapid force production capabilities were not altered among female handball players after a 3-week detraining period, their ballistic capabilities decreased, especially those affecting the eccentric part of a fast dynamic task. They also highlight the importance of testing, planning, and programming in response to the fluctuations in handball players' physical performance over the season.

UN humanitarian aid and humanitarian funds in the world

The article examines the issues of UN humanitarian aid and humanitarian funds in the world. The issues of providing humanitarian aid in different countries are investigated. It is argued that humanitarian aid in the modern world is an indispensable tool through which funds and other resources are formed and distributed among the state, among people who, due to various factors, have found themselves in special conditions that do not consider them to be able to adequately satisfy their vital human needs. It is proven that the problems due to which people and the state need humanitarian aid are caused primarily by military uprisings, military conflicts (armed conflicts, aggression), confrontation between legitimate authorities (legally elected and/or legally appointed) and their opponents. The activities of the UN Emergency Relief Service, managed by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), are analyzed in detail. The features of financing humanitarian assistance from OCHA through the largest pooled funds of many donors are considered: the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) and Country-Based Pooled Funds (CBPL), Regional Humanitarian Funds (RHF). Special attention is paid to humanitarian funds. The features of OCHA’s pooled funds, which are formed mainly through contributions from national governments, foundations and individuals, are analyzed. The practice of the CERF, which is designed for underfunded emergencies and helps to scale up and sustain long-term relief operations to avoid critical gaps in the absence of other funding, is examined. The country-based pooled funds (CBPFs), which are established when an emergency arises or when an existing crisis worsens, are analyzed. They are managed by OCHA under the leadership of Humanitarian Coordinators (HCs) or UN Resident Coordinators (RCs) and in close consultation with the humanitarian community, are pooled into single, non-earmarked funds. These funds support high-priority projects implemented by those best suited to respond (including international and national NGOs and UN agencies) through an inclusive and transparent process that supports the priorities identified in the Humanitarian Response Plans.

Evaluating the Hospital Preparedness for Emergencies using WHO Hospital Safety Index Tool.

CBRN (an acronym for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) events are large scale disasters that differ from man- made disasters in that the involved agents additionally cause contamination and specific health hazards. As an institution, hospitals need a specific level of preparedness to enable an effective response to CBRN emergencies. The aim of this study was to assess the presence and placement of a proper hospital response plan to CBRN events. It was an observational cross-sectional study conducted from October 2021 to December 2021 in two public tertiary level healthcare facilities selected through purposive sampling technique. Data was collected using WHO Hospital Safety Index Tool which is a checklist consisting of 151 items divided into four sections or modules. To calculate the hospitals safety index Model-1 was used. The sum of the weighted results of the three modules for both hospitals were in category A (0.66 - 1), the results depicted that it is likely that the hospitals will function in emergencies and disasters. Both hospitals gave satisfactory results when evaluated on the basis of WHO Hospital Safety Index Tool for emergency preparedness.

Resilience enhancement for coastal power systems via typhoon response plans

Resilience enhancement for coastal power systems via typhoon response plans

The Challenges of Autonomous Vehicles In Malaysia: From The Perspective Of Motorcycle Traffic Crashes

The Level 3 autonomous vehicle (AV) is now a reality on the public roads. While the emergence of AV is to eliminate the traffic crashes due to human error by 90%, the unexpected or errant drivings on the roads would, however lead to traffic crashes as the operation of AVs are depending on the artificial intelligence, which involve constantly teaching the computer to learn. In Malaysia, motorcycle fatalities accounted for about 60% of the total traffic fatalities, of which the majority of the fatalities were due to human errors. - The presence of motorcyclists in the traffic stream then becomes challenge to the operation of AVs due to the unpredictable and inconsistent behaviour of the motorcyclists. Therefore, to ensure the safe deployment of AVs in the country, this study is taken to unveil the characteristics of certain traffic crashes involving motorcyclists. The findings show that as high as 40% of the motorcycle casualties were due to the motorcycles’ faults. Careless driving, speeding, dangerous overtaking and turning are among the causal factors. The findings shed important insights to AV software programm developers in the process of detecting and processing necessary response plans. Besides, the car makers can also propose more crashworthiness vehicles from the perspective of vulnerable road users.

Gender Responsive Budgeting for women’s empowerment: A collaborative engagement in Malarani Rural Municipality, Nepal

Gender Responsive Budgeting (GRB) is a strategic approach to integrating a gender perspective into the planning process and promoting gender equity and equality. The Government of Nepal endorsed GRB in 2007/2008 and made it mandatory. Accordingly, local governments have sought to undertake gender-responsive planning. However, studies show they lack a robust assessment of gender-based needs and have faced challenges in adopting GRB. To address this issue, we adopted a co-production approach where researchers and Malarani Rural Municipality in the Arghakhanchi district of western Nepal, jointly assessed the municipal plan and worked collectively to understand and revisit the gender responsive activities and plans. In this article, we provide details of this co-production process. Drawing on our engagement and the subsequent uptake of GRB in this rural municipality, we emphasise the importance of enhancing local capacity to self-assess their development policies and plans through a gender lens and ensure GRB for gender-balanced local planning processes. We conclude that although GRB is not a panacea to gender inequalities, it can ease access to resources for addressing gender disparities and promoting women’s empowerment through inclusive planning processes, especially at the municipality level.

Discrete Multi-Objective Grey Wolf Algorithm Applied to Dynamic Distributed Flexible Job Shop Scheduling Problem with Variable Processing Times

Uncertainty in processing times is a key issue in distributed production; it severely affects scheduling accuracy. In this study, we investigate a dynamic distributed flexible job shop scheduling problem with variable processing times (DDFJSP-VPT), in which the processing time follows a normal distribution. First, the mathematical model is established by simultaneously considering the makespan, tardiness, and total factory load. Second, a chance-constrained approach is employed to predict uncertain processing times to generate a robust initial schedule. Then, a heuristic scheduling method which involves a left-shift strategy, an insertion-based local adjustment strategy, and a DMOGWO-based global rescheduling strategy is developed to dynamically adjust the scheduling plan in response to the context of uncertainty. Moreover, a hybrid initialization scheme, discrete crossover, and mutation operations are designed to generate a high-quality initial population and update the wolf pack, enabling GWO to effectively solve the distributed flexible job shop scheduling problem. Based on the parameter sensitivity study and a comparison with four algorithms, the algorithm’s stability and effectiveness in both static and dynamic environments are demonstrated. Finally, the experimental results show that our method can achieve much better performance than other rules-based reactive scheduling methods and the hybrid-shift strategy. The utility of the prediction strategy is also validated.

The Security of Autonomous Vehicle Software and its National Security Implications

The rapid proliferation of autonomous vehicles (AVs) presents a transformative technological leap with significant implications for safety, efficiency, and societal well-being. However, this advancement introduces a complex web of security vulnerabilities posing substantial risks to national security. This analysis explores the multifaceted security challenges inherent in AV software, examining their cascading effects on critical infrastructure, economic stability, and national defense. The core argument is that AV software vulnerabilities represent a significant and underappreciated national security threat. This threat manifests in several key ways. First, the interconnectedness of AVs—relying on communication networks (5G, V2X), mapping data, and real-time information sharing—creates a large attack surface. Cyberattacks can cause cascading failures, disrupting transportation networks and impacting supply chains. Second, the economic consequences of large-scale attacks are potentially devastating, encompassing vehicle recalls, repairs, insurance claims, and lost productivity leading to economic instability and national security concerns. Third, the integration of AV technology into military applications amplifies these risks. Autonomous military systems inherit and may amplify the vulnerabilities present in civilian AVs, jeopardizing national defense capabilities. Geopolitical implications are significant; state-sponsored attacks and the potential for cyber warfare demand international cooperation in establishing cybersecurity norms and standards. Furthermore, the potential for AV misuse in terrorism or criminal activities, alongside data privacy concerns, increases the urgency of addressing these security challenges. Connected AVs collect vast amounts of data, presenting significant privacy risks and potential for exploitation. The analysis details various software vulnerabilities, including susceptibility to adversarial attacks on sensor systems (cameras, LiDAR, radar), vulnerabilities in machine-learning-based decision-making algorithms (adversarial examples, model poisoning, algorithmic bias), weaknesses in V2X communication protocols, risks associated with OTA updates, and supply chain security challenges. Hardware vulnerabilities further expand the attack surface. Mitigating these risks necessitates a multi-pronged approach: robust cybersecurity regulations and standards, investment in research and development of more resilient systems, and strong international cooperation. Implementing secure software development lifecycle practices, enhanced hardware security, transparent supply chains via SBOMs, and comprehensive incident response plans are crucial. Continuous research, development, and collaboration are essential for ensuring AVs' secure and responsible deployment, preventing significant consequences for national security and global stability.