Risk Management Research Research Articles

The distributional consequences of future flood risk management in England and Wales

Much flood risk management (FRM) research has examined the predicted increased burden of risk from future climate change. In contrast, this paper examines the changing funding regime for FRM and arrangements for flood insurance in the UK today. These changes, after the 1998–2013 period of severe and repeated flooding, may considerably increase the burden for at-risk households, but affect different groups differently, raising the question as to how to manage the risk and who should pay for this risk management. We explore this through scenarios incorporating modelled changes both to government investment to reduce risk and to flood insurance. The key findings are that moving towards a more risk-based approach could move the burden hugely, particularly onto financially deprived at-risk households, such that both investment and insurance could be unaffordable or unavailable. As insurance becomes more risk based, deprived households are less likely to purchase cover, but higher costs might incentivise those at risk to adapt to the risk they face. In the end, society has to decide whether to promote more substantial incentives discouraging occupation of the floodplain, with the likely adverse consequences for those there who are financially deprived, or retain the current discouragement of self-help.

The distributional consequences of future flood risk management in England and Wales

Much flood risk management (FRM) research has examined the predicted increased burden of risk from future climate change. In contrast, this paper examines the changing funding regime for FRM and arrangements for flood insurance in the UK today. These changes, after the 1998–2013 period of severe and repeated flooding, may considerably increase the burden for at-risk households, but affect different groups differently, raising the question as to how to manage the risk and who should pay for this risk management. We explore this through scenarios incorporating modelled changes both to government investment to reduce risk and to flood insurance. The key findings are that moving towards a more risk-based approach could move the burden hugely, particularly onto financially deprived at-risk households, such that both investment and insurance could be unaffordable or unavailable. As insurance becomes more risk based, deprived households are less likely to purchase cover, but higher costs might incentivise those at risk to adapt to the risk they face. In the end, society has to decide whether to promote more substantial incentives discouraging occupation of the floodplain, with the likely adverse consequences for those there who are financially deprived, or retain the current discouragement of self-help.

Identifying high risk medications causing potential drug-drug interactions in outpatients: A prescription database study based on an online surveillance system.

Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are a significant cause for adverse drug events (ADEs). DDIs are often predictable and preventable, but their prevention and management require systematic service development. Most DDI studies focus on interaction rates in hospitalized patients. Less is known of DDIs in outpatients, particularly how community pharmacists could contribute to DDI management by applying their surveillance systems for identifying high-risk medications. The study was related to the implementation of the first online DDI surveillance system in Finnish community pharmacies. The goal was to demonstrate how community pharmacies can utilize their prospective surveillance system 1) for identifying high risk medications causing potential DDIs in outpatients, 2) for collaborative service development with local physicians, and 3) for academic risk management research purposes. All DDI alerts given by the online surveillance system were collected during a one-month period in 16 out of 17 University Pharmacy outlets in Finland, covering approximately 10% of the national outpatient prescription volume. The surveillance system was based on the FASS database, which categorizes DDIs into four classes (A-D) according to their clinical significance. Potential drug-drug DDIs were analyzed for 276,891 dispensed community pharmacy prescriptions. Potential DDIs were associated with 10.8%, or 31,110 of these prescriptions. Clinically significant interaction alerts categorized as FASS classes D (most severe, should be avoided) and C (clinically significant but controllable) were associated with 0.5% and 7.0% of the prescriptions, respectively. Methotrexate and warfarin had the highest risk of causing potentially serious (class D) interactions. These interaction alerts were most frequently between methotrexate and NSAIDs and warfarin and NSAIDs. In general, NSAIDs were the most commonly interacting drugs in this study. This study demonstrates that community pharmacies can actively contribute to DDI risk management and systematically use their surveillance systems for identifying patients having clinically significant DDIs. The findings also indicate that the majority of potentially serious interactions in outpatients involve a limited number of drugs, particularly NSAIDs, warfarin and methotrexate. Further research should focus on community pharmacists' involvement in DDI risk management in collaboration with local health care providers.

What does insurance purchase behaviour say about risks?

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the world of insurances as rites of adaptancy and resiliency before risk and disasters. The research on risks, both perceived and real, has become a frequent theme of academic research in the recent past. Design/methodology/approach – The information given by the superintendencia de Seguros de Buenos Aires involves 100 per cent of the insurances companies of Argentina. The reading of insurance demands corresponds with a new method in the studies of risks. Findings – Using advanced probability theory and quantitative techniques, risk management researchers have been able to construct sophisticated mathematical-statistical models of risk. Research limitations/implications – However, the relation between anticipated risks and insurance purchase behaviour has not received sufficient attention. In the present study, starting from the premise that societies may be studied by examining their fears, the authors posit that these fears are represented in the insurance premiums people buy for being protected. Originality/value – Insurance purchase behaviour at any particular point in time is a measure of what a society considers to be risky at that time and is a key source of information for tourism managers.

Collaborative governance and rare floods in urban regions – Dealing with uncertainty and surprise

Rare floods in urban regions like the Dresden region triggered significant changes in public policy and research. However, how actors are able to deal with uncertainty and surprise related to rare floods in the future is still open to many questions and debates in flood risk management research and practice. From an interpretative and agency-oriented perspective, the paper asks how dealing with uncertainty and surprise may be enhanced through processes of collaborative governance for rare floods in urban regions. The paper follows a conceptual purpose based on a series of completed projects and publications on flood risk management in the urban region of Dresden. Conceptual analysis highlights two strategic options for focusing collaboration of public and private actors: planning for flood risk reduction and searching for resilience. Both options are based on assumptions of collaborators about the predictability of the specific flood risk management problem at stake, especially with regard to analyzing surprise in retrospect. The paper elucidates on implications in the context of collaboration, participation, and governance.

Interpreting Salt Marsh Dynamics: Challenging Scientific Paradigms

From its inception as an object of study, salt marshes were conceived as a form of continual accumulation. For more than a century this paradigm structured the understanding of tidal marshes in Canada's St. Lawrence estuary and was used by physical and human geographers, biologists, agronomists, and ecologists to encourage marsh reclamation as a form of collaboration with nature. In the 1980s, this school of thought abruptly gave way to a school of generalized erosion. This new paradigm, resulting from the scientific and social reaction to the Anthropocene and the advent of applied research in risk management, underlies a crisis narrative used to promote intervention by concerned actors to protect marshes and human infrastructure. Although the changing socioeconomy of salt marshes is well known, the evolution of scientific thinking about them continues to be depicted in positivist terms. Critical reflection on salt marshes as a social construction of nature, however, demonstrates a clear chain of links between cultural values, scientific practices, and research outcomes. Lack of recognition of this subject–object problem impedes the current investigation of salt marsh dynamics as a function of both erosion and growth processes.

Inferences About the Amaranth Case and the Emerging Maturity of the Hedge Fund Industry

The Amaranth case is surprising in many ways. It is definitely a surprise that a well-respected multi-strategy hedge fund could lose about $6-billion in little over a week. It is perhaps an even greater surprise that such a loss would have little knock-on effect on the hedge fund industry and the wider capital markets.On October 2nd, the EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre (EDHEC-Risk) released a report on the early lessons from the Amaranth debacle. This paper will summarize this report. Given that there are no new material facts on this case as of the end of November 2006, this paper will focus on providing new inferences on the riskiness of Amaranth’s trading strategies.Because we have the benefit of observing the past two months of stability in the hedge fund industry, we can draw new conclusions about the emerging maturity of the industry.

Healthcare Risk Management Analysis – A Bibliometric Approach

Using a large-scale dataset from WoS, this paper explores the publications on healthcare risk management, through bibliometric analysis. The bibliometric analysis reflects how research in hospital risk management and healthcare management evolved over time, offering insights on the most relevant and influential research. Based on the idea that researchers publish their most important results in articles, conferences, books and reviews, there is diffusion in this research field, with many reference countries. The bibliometric analysis reflects the growing interest of research for the area of healthcare risk management. The need to provide high quality medical services requires the design and implementation of a set of key performance indicators for each strategic objective set by the hospital management.

Exploring impact factors of shippers’ risk prevention activities: A European survey in transportation

This paper reports results of a survey examining the impact factors for shippers to implement risk prevention activities. A regression analysis illustrates the relations between risk and quality related impact factors and the shippers’ ability to implement risk prevention activities. The study identifies the corporate risk culture and product vulnerability as main impact factors for the implementation of prevention activities in transportation. This paper will be beneficial for transportation managers considering the implementation of risk prevention activities in the transportation field, and will support further empirical research in the transportation management and supply chain risk management research area.

Flooding hazard in the Tagus estuarine area: The challenge of scale in vulnerability assessments

Abstract This paper describes the methodology of the vulnerability assessment to flooding in an estuarine context and presents the final results for the Tagus River estuary, in the metropolitan region of Lisbon (Portugal). Performing a local study adapted to a specific type of hazard posed two initial methodological challenges: the selection of the unit of analysis and the identification of the pertinent and available variables. Both challenges were addressed assuming that the area to be assessed should also include the units outside the inundated area, a buffer zone that would include areas indirectly affected. The application of the statistical procedures established in the SoVI ® methodology indicate that certain widely used variables in vulnerability assessments on smaller scales are inadequate at the statistical block scale and that specific variables must be defined and integrated to represent more broadly the dimensions of vulnerability related to social assistance, infrastructures and commutability. The extracted principal components identified the vulnerability drivers in the riverside and surrounding areas. These drivers identify the urban context, the family structure, and the socio-economic condition expressed in terms of housing characteristics, education, mobility and commuting as the dimensions that most differentiate territorial and individuals’ vulnerability. Applications of vulnerability research in risk management are found in the fields of risk communication, stakeholders’ involvement and strategic and operational planning in emergency planning as in other concurring sectors.

Risk ranking and analysis in PPP water supply infrastructure projects

Purpose – This paper aims to identify and evaluate the most significant risk factors that strongly affect the implementation of public–private partnership (PPP) water supply projects. PPP for water supply infrastructure services has seen continued growth over the past two decades, following public sector’s budgetary constraints and inability to provide infrastructure-based water services efficiently and cost effectively. However, these projects are often subjected to major risks leading to failures. Design/methodology/approach – Following extensive literature review and case study analyses, an international questionnaire survey was conducted with practicing and experienced PPP experts to establish the significant risks in PPP water projects. Both the probability of occurrence and severity of 40 risks were evaluated by the expert panel to determine their significance and impact on water projects procured under the PPP arrangement. Findings – The paper presents a derived risk factor list, ranks the factors and describes the “top-ranked” risk factors as: poor contract design, water pricing and tariff review uncertainty, political interference, public resistance to PPP, construction time and cost overrun, non-payment of bills, lack of PPP experience, financing risk, faulty demand forecasting, high operational costs and conflict between partners. Originality/value – This factor list broadens PPP stakeholders’ view of important project risks, rather than relying on culture-dependent studies – an area that has received less attention in PPP risk management research. The identified risk factors would provide governments and investors a useful tool in implementing constructive water PPPs by facilitating the development of risk mitigation strategies, particularly for developing countries with poor risk management practices.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Models, Gibbs Sampling, & Metropolis Algorithm for High-Dimensionality Complex Stochastic Problems

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have an important role in solving high dimensionality stochastic problems characterized by computational complexity. Given their critical importance, there is need for network and security risk management research to relate the MCMC quantitative methodological concerns with network and security risk applications. This article contributes to that research stream. The core quantitative methodological focus of the article is on Monte Carlo Models and MCMC Algorithms, Gibbs Sampling and Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm. Network and security risk management application focus is on how MCMC methods help solve previously unsolvable problems in computational statistical modeling of cryptography, cryptanalytics, and penetration testing; intrusion detection & prevention and anomaly detection; and, privacy in anonymity systems and social networks. Future quantitative methods applied research and development in MCMC and computational statistical computing to address systemic risk and model risk management is recommended.

Improving Hotel Performance Through Active Supply Chain Risk Management: A Preliminary Model

Purpose -- The purpose of this paper is to identify internal and external risk factors and establish the role of supply chain risk management in supporting hotel performance. Design/methodology/approach -- Articles related to supply chain risk management and service supply chain performance are identified and analysed. This paper outlines theories and concepts which are used to develop a supply chain risk management. Future research may test this model with a survey and structural equation modelling to validate the relationships between the constructs. Findings -- Internal and external risk must be properly managed by the hotel industry and supply chain risk management can sustain hotel performance. Most of the research in supply chain risk management is focused on manufacturing sector and there has been little investigation in the service sector.Practical implications -- This study can be used by academicians and professionals who wish to address management of internal and external risks in service supply chains to sustain organizational performance. Investigating the role of supply chain risk management in service sector will enable managers to prevent risks to their business, and thereby soften shocks for the engulfing economy.Originality/value -- This paper recognizes that supply chain risk management requires further study in different sectors to enrich our understanding of key constructs. Additionally, this paper identifies that there are few studies that analyse the relationship between supply chain risk management and different dimensions of performance, including service supply chain operations, customer service, and corporate performance.

The Research of Initial Public Offering Audit Risk Management

IPO fraud has been a hot issue in academic research recently. The false statement behaviors of enterprises severely affect the healthy development of capital market, harm the interests of investors, and thus cause a widespread concern in the community. In these cases, there are also impacts on the accounting firms’ economic and reputation in varying degree. The effective management of audit risks can reduce the loss, timely correct the possible audit risks, and improve audit quality and professional image of CPA. This paper mainly researches how to supervise and control the audit risks in the IPO audit project.

Assessing Credit Default using Logistic Regression and Multiple Discriminant Analysis:Empirical Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina

This article has an aim to assess credit default prediction on the banking market in Bosnia and Herzegovina nationwide as well as on its constitutional entities (Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska). Ability to classify companies info different predefined groups or finding an appropriate tool which would replace human assessment in classifying companies into good and bad buckets has been one of the main interests on risk management researchers for a long time. We investigated the possibility and accuracy of default prediction using traditional statistical methods logistic regression (logit) and multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and compared their predictive abilities. The results show that the created models have high predictive ability. For logit models, some variables are more influential on the default prediction than the others. Return on assets (ROA) is statistically significant in all four periods prior to default, having very high regression coefficients, or high impact on the model's ability to predict default. Similar results are obtained for MDA models. It is also found that predictive ability differs between logistic regression and multiple discriminant analysis.

The Management of High-Rise Building Construction Safety Risks

With the continuous development of economic level and the construction technology and progress, safety accident frequency is becoming more and higher, but now does not specifically for high-rise housing construction project the life cycle of the comprehensive security risk management research. From the high-rise building construction engineering safety construction and the basic theory and method of risk management, for high-rise building construction in the process of project construction safety risk identification, analysis and evaluation, explores the solution to the corresponding security risk effective management countermeasures.

The Application of VaR Methods in Financial Risk Management Research

With the development of financial markets, financial products innovation and global competition intensifies, the risk of financial market in China will be more complex and varied. How to deal with these risks and effective management has become the crucial problem of the financial institutions and regulators. VaR model as a tool to measure market risk, is increasingly becoming the current international financial mainstream risk management and financial supervision method, wide support and recognition by the international financial community. This paper introduces the background and meaning of the VaR method and studied the VaR method in the application of all kinds of financial risk management.

State-Owned Banks Risk Management Research

This paper mainly studies the concept of state-owned bank's risk and risk management, the state-owned Banks' risk types and western state-owned banks risk management theory. Through the observation of the state-owned Banks risk management status qua in our country at present stage analysis, find out the problems that exist in the state-owned Banks' risk management at the present stage in China and the insufficiency, in the understanding of problems gradually put forward the corresponding improvement to our country state-owned Banks' risk management methods and countermeasures.

Guide to drawdown capacity for reservoir safety and emergency planning

A key factor in avoiding and minimising the impact of catastrophic dam failure is the ability to draw a reservoir down in the event of an emergency. In the UK there is currently no single accepted approach to determining what represents an acceptable rate of reservoir drawdown. A project is therefore currently being carried out, under the joint Environment Agency/Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) Flood & Coastal Erosion Risk Management (FCERM) research and development programme, to research and produce guidance on the drawdown capacity required for reservoir safety. This paper summarises some of the research findings from stage 1 of this project and sets out the proposed approach to develop the guidance in the next stage of the project.

Manajemen Risiko Pada Bandara Soekarno Hatta Berbasis ISO 31000

Soekarna Hatta Airport as an international aviation company hasn’t yet implemented an international standard risk management system based on ISO 31000, so it triggers the occurrence of negative impacts to the human, environment, property and company reputation. This research aims to conduct a risk assessment and control by using an international standard risk management system. Risk management research is focused on the negative impacts caused by an event of airport operations, particularly operations facility and machine. The Stages of the risk management process are based on ISO 31000 including risk identification, risk analysis, and risk evaluation using fishbone and Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) tool. Impact Expectations and possible occurrence are mapped through the risk matrix which is defined by the Federation Aviation Administration (FAA). The results showed that there were7 events at Soekarno Hatta airport that have potential risk, namely, outbreak of the runway track, plane accidence during take-off/landing, disruption of flight navigation and communication services, accidence in the apron area, security disruption at the airport, aircraft jetblast, and entry of dangerous goods on board.