Relative Sea-level Reconstructions Research Articles

Late Holocene relative sea-level records from coral microatolls in Singapore

Late Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) data are important to understand the drivers of RSL change, but there is a lack of precise RSL records from the Sunda Shelf. Here, we produced a Late Holocene RSL reconstruction from coral microatolls in Singapore, demonstrating for the first time the utility of Diploastrea heliopora microatolls as sea-level indicators. We produced 12 sea-level index points and three marine limiting data with a precision of < ± 0.2 m (2σ) and < ± 26 years uncertainties (95% highest density region). The data show a RSL fall of 0.31 ± 0.18 m between 2.8 and 0.6 thousand years before present (kyr BP), at rates between − 0.1 ± 0.3 and − 0.2 ± 0.7 mm/year. Surface profiles of the fossil coral microatolls suggest fluctuations in the rate of RSL fall: (1) stable between 2.8 and 2.5 kyr BP; (2) rising at ~ 1.8 kyr BP; and (3) stable from 0.8 to 0.6 kyr BP. The microatoll record shows general agreement with published, high-quality RSL data within the Sunda Shelf. Comparison to a suite of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models indicate preference for lower viscosities in the mantle. However, more high quality and precise Late Holocene RSL data are needed to further evaluate the drivers of RSL change in the region and better constrain GIA model parameters.

Impact of coseismic uplifting on relative sea level change in the Southern Adriatic during the past 4.500 years – New evidence from Dubrovnik epicentral area based on analysis of algal rims and tidal notches

The Southern Adriatic is recognized as one of the most seismically active regions of the Central Mediterranean. It hosted the strongest historically known and instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Croatia and Montenegro. We conducted a detailed study of algal rims and tidal notches along the Dubrovnik–Konavle coastal area, aimed to contribute in reconstruction of relative sea level (RSL) change, palaeoearthquakes and neotectonics during the last 4500 years. The RSL reconstruction based on high-resolution geochronology showed that the spatial variability of RSL change is largely controlled by local tectonics, leading generally to an alternation of periods of RSL rise and rapid falls caused by coseismic uplift events. During the interseismic periods RSL rose at rates from 1.03 to 0.7 mm/yr before AD, followed by a slowdown to ~0.43 mm/yr, and reaching ~1.3 mm/yr after 1850s. The only exception relates to a period of slow RSL drop probably related to the 3.2 ka cold event. Rapid RSL falls caused by coseismic uplift indicate the occurrence of several large-scale events during the 4th–6th centuries AD, the 800–1360 cal AD period, and in 1395, with hints of earlier events between 1395 cal BC and 565 cal AD. These instances correspond to either unknown or insufficiently documented earthquakes. Conversely, the earthquakes in 1520 and 1667 have been clearly identified. The most compelling evidence of coseismic uplift is associated with the 1667 Dubrovnik earthquake, with an estimated uplift of 40–60 ± 15 cm documented along 40 km of coastline. Analyses of multiple sites with the same high-resolution marker show that Holocene tectonic deformations vary along different fault segments with minimum uplift rates ranging from ~0.3 to ~0.9 mm/yr over ~1.5 ka. The main seismogenic source responsible for coseismic uplifts is attributed to the Dalmatian unit basal thrust and its NE-dipping splays at the Adria-Dinarides boundary.

Imprint of relative sea level histories on Last Interglacial coral preservation

SUMMARY Fossil corals are commonly used to reconstruct Last Interglacial (∼125 ka, LIG) sea level. Sea level reconstructions assume the water depth at which the coral lived, called the ‘relative water depth’. However, relative water depth varies in time and space due to coral reef growth in response to relative sea level (RSL) changes. RSL changes can also erode coral reefs, exposing older reef surfaces with different relative water depths. We use a simplified numerical model of coral evolution to investigate how sea level history systematically influences the preservation of corals in the Bahamas and western Australia, regions which house &amp;gt;100 LIG coral fossils. We construct global ice histories spanning the uncertainty of LIG global mean sea level (GMSL) and predict RSL with a glacial isostatic adjustment model. We then simulate coral evolution since 132 ka. We show that preserved elevations and relative water depths of modelled LIG corals are sensitive to the magnitude, timing and number of GMSL highstand(s). In our simulations, the influence of coral growth and erosion (i.e. the ‘growth effect’) can have an impact on RSL reconstructions that is comparable to glacial isostatic adjustment. Thus, without explicitly accounting for the growth effect, additional uncertainty is introduced into sea level reconstructions. Our results suggest the growth effect is most pronounced in western Australia due to Holocene erosion, but also plays a role in the Bahamas, where LIG RSL rose rapidly due to the collapsing peripheral bulge associated with Laurentide Ice Sheet retreat. Despite the coral model's simplicity, our study highlights the utility of process-based RSL reconstructions.

A ∼200-year relative sea-level reconstruction from the Wellington region (New Zealand) reveals insights into vertical land movement trends

The sea-level rise threat to New Zealand's coastal cities is regionally exacerbated due to spatially varying vertical land movement (VLM). At Wellington, the capital city, situated adjacent to a major active plate boundary, strong regional spatial and temporal variability of VLM is indicated by the relatively short (∼25 year-long) continuous Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) network, but until now longer records of VLM have been lacking. Here, a ∼ 200-year-long relative sea-level reconstruction is presented from Pāuatahanui salt marsh in the northern Wellington region. The foraminifera-based relative sea-level reconstruction indicates that ∼1 ± 0.45 m of sudden uplift occurred during the 1855CE Mw 8.2 Wairarapa earthquake. Following this, Pāuatahanui has experienced a mean rate of relative sea-level rise (1855CE to present) of 1.5 ± 0.6 mm/yr, or 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr since the start of the twentieth century, consistent with ongoing subsidence in concert with climate-driven sea-level rise. Further acceleration to >3 mm/yr since the 1990s (with 4 mm/yr also possible if the full 95% confidence range is taken into consideration) is consistent with the globally documented acceleration in sea-level rise, although low model precision hampers confidence in this interpretation. This record is the first of its kind from a tectonically complex setting in New Zealand, shedding light on the effects of the historically significant 1855 earthquake, and fills a gap between millennial-scale and contemporary records of VLM with important implications for future sea-level projections in the region.

Constraining the end of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level highstand in central Mediterranean: New data from Grotta delle Capre, central Italy

The current rapid change of the Earth's climate has resulted in an increasing interest for the past warm periods as potential long-term scenarios of the effects of the present global warming. The last such a period occurred 129–116 ka, known as the Last Interglacial (LIG), when the continental ice volume was significantly smaller than present, leading to a global sea-level (GSL) higher than present one. Detailed morpho-stratigraphic data, supported by a robust U/Th chronology, from Grotta delle Capre, central Italy, provided new chronological insights on the relative sea-level (RSL) dynamic during the LIG in the Mediterranean region. Our results indicate that, on Tyrrhenian Sea coasts of the central Italy, after having stationed at ∼9 m a.s.l., the LIG RSL fell at an elevation <3 m a.s.l. as early as before 123 ka, and then no longer rose above this elevation either during the later stages of the LIG or afterwards. The results match previous studies based on U/Th dating of terrestrial limiting points from Grotta Infreschi, ∼200 km SE from Grotta delle Capre along the same Tyrrhenian Sea coasts, and are in agreement with the Red Sea RLS and GSL records and the probabilistic LIG sea level assessments based on globally distributed records. On the other hand, our reconstruction is not supported by implications of U/Th dating of corals and phreatic overgrowth on speleothems from the Balearic Island of Mallorca. Such an inconsistency in the overall knowledge around the LIG RSL reconstruction results in a high uncertainty in modelling the ice and sea-level dynamic during this warm period, which needs to be reduced through more and more high-resolution, stratigraphic and chronological investigations of the morphological and sedimentary sea-level records.

ENSO may have contributed to sea level changes in the Gulf of Thailand during the Late-Holocene

The Gulf of Thailand is ideal for studying eustatic sea level fluctuations in Southeast Asia due to its shallow basin and tectonic stability. However, our understanding of how this region’s relative sea level (RSL) has fluctuated over the Holocene epoch is far from complete. In this study, we used lithostratigraphy, loss on ignition, grain size, and pollen analyses to reconstruct the environmental changes in the Sam Roi Yot wetland, which was significantly influenced by seawater intrusion, driven by fluctuations in RSL in the Gulf of Thailand. Therefore, the analyzed pollen records of the sediment core from the wetland reflected variabilities in the RSL in the Gulf of Thailand. Subsequently, we found that after a sea level highstand prior to 4000 cal y BP, the RSL gradually fell with two significant regressions at c. 2950 and 1850–1450 cal y BP before rising at 1450–1050 cal y BP and declining after that. The inconsistency between RSL reconstruction based on our results and the global sea level changes simulated by the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model further suggests that long–term El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) variabilities may have played a significant role in sea level changes in the Gulf of Thailand over the Late-Holocene period. Thus, during extended El Niño or La Niña conditions, the sea level would have been consistently lower or higher than expected from eustatic and isostatic processes alone. Overall, this study emphasizes the importance of considering regional factors such as ENSO to understand sea level changes in Southeast Asia.

Holocene relative sea-level histories of far-field islands in the mid-Pacific

Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) data from far-field islands in the mid-Pacific have been used to validate the ice-melting histories of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. However, a lack of quality control in the reconstruction of RSL hinders the understanding of regional variability that can constrain ice-equivalent sea-level changes. Here, we present a standardised database of Holocene RSL data from five regions in the mid-Pacific (Cook Islands, Tuamotu Islands, Christmas (Kiritimati) Island, Gilbert Islands and Fiji). We categorised the data as high or low quality based on the susceptibility of samples to age and/or elevation errors. Of the 614 data points that were reviewed, 25% were rejected and 100 sea-level index points (SLIPs) were reinterpreted as limiting data. The new database consists of 141 SLIPs and 262 marine and 56 terrestrial limiting data points reconstructed from a variety of sea-level indicators (e.g., coral microatolls, mangrove peat, beachrock, and beach ridges), of which 71% provide high-quality constraints on RSL. The early to mid Holocene RSL evolution in the Cook Islands, Gilbert Islands and Fiji are poorly constrained due to a lack of high-quality SLIPs and limiting data during this period. The Tuamotu Islands provided the only record of early to mid Holocene evolution of RSL, indicating rapid RSL rise from between −22.9 m and −15.2 m at ∼9.0 ka to between −0.2 m and 0.5 m by ∼6.5 ka, at rates as high as 9.8 ± 5.1 mm/a, with a slowdown in the rate of RSL rise sometime between ∼8.2 ka and ∼6 ka. The Christmas (Kiritimati) Island record indicates stable RSL within ∼1.5 m of present-day levels over the past ∼6.6 ka. In the late Holocene, the Cook Islands record suggests a gradual fall in RSL over the past ∼2.9 ka at rates below 0.1 ± 4.3 mm/a. SLIPs at Fiji also indicate a slight fall in RSL at rates of less than 0.5 ± ∼4.4 mm/a at ∼4 ka, following which RSL fell from above 0.9 m at ∼3 ka to between −0.3 m and 0.6 m by ∼2.5– ∼2.1 ka. We highlight the importance of standardisation and quality control to critically evaluate the processes controlling RSL and validate GIA models. Indeed, the new standardised database has implications for the timing of the mid- Holocene highstand, which has been used to support the ICE-4G and ICE-7G_NA models. Due to the poor constraints of data in the mid-Pacific islands, particularly in the early Holocene, there remains no unique solution for a global ice-melting history.

A re-evaluation of Holocene relative sea-level change along the Fujian coast, southeastern China

The southeastern China coast is a region of special interest in the study of past and present relative sea-level change, given its distal location from giant ice sheets (far-field regions). During the past decades, a large number of biological, geological, and archaeological sea-level indicators have been retrieved from the Fujian coastal region which allows for recalibration and recalculation of sea-level index points (SLIPs). This study constructs a database of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) observations for the Fujian coast, southeastern China. The database contains 59 quality-controlled SLIPs which show that RSL for the Fujian coast did not exceed present (0 m) during the Holocene, except potentially during 7.5–5.5 cal. kyr BP and 1.8–0.7 cal. kyr BP. Rates of RSL change were highest during the early Holocene and have decreased over time, due to the diminishing response of the Earth's mantle to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and reduction of meltwater input. A series of sea-level oscillations were recorded in our SLIPs-based reconstructions which might correspond to global climate warming or cooling events. We assessed the spatial variability of RSL histories and compared these with the ICE-6G_C and ANU-ICE GIA model predictions. Substantial misfits between GIA predictions and regional RSL reconstructions were recognized: (1) the deceleration of the early-Holocene sea-level rise ended about one millennia earlier in the ICE-6G_C model than in the SLIPs-based reconstructions; (2) GIA model predictions show a mid-Holocene sea-level highstand of 1–3 m which is absent from our SLIPs-based reconstructions; and (3) all GIA model predicted a gradual RSL fall to 0 m since the middle Holocene, while our reconstruction displays significant RSL oscillations. It is presently unknown whether these misfits are caused by uncertainties in regional tectonic movement estimation or parameters used in the GIA models. Future applications of spatiotemporal statistical techniques are required to better quantify the gradient of the isostatic contribution and to provide improved context for the assessment of the ongoing acceleration of sea-level rise.

Postglacial relative sea-level changes in the Gulf of Maine, USA: Database compilation, assessment and modelling

Relative sea level (RSL) reconstructions from paleo records are often the most valuable data set for testing and constraining glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. In some regions, the amplitude and rate of the reconstructed RSL changes are large making the data difficult to fit. Arguably, the reconstructed RSL curve from Maine, USA, is the classic example of such a data set with peak values at about 120 m dropping to a low stand of around −40 m within a few thousand years. To our knowledge, no GIA model has captured these extreme variations and the record has been somewhat neglected by the GIA modelling community. Here we critically assess and present a revised pre-10 ka RSL data base for this region and combine it with two recent Holocene compilations. Based on our assessment, we conclude that the large and rapid changes, inferred in previous studies, are robust. To determine if a successful model fit can be found, we consider a GIA parameter set comprising five ice models and 440 spherically-symmetric, Earth viscosity models assuming a Maxwell rheology. Results show that none of the model parameter sets produce a good fit to the data set. The rapid RSL fall and lowstand can be simulated by Earth models with low values of upper mantle viscosity (∼5 × 1019 Pas). However, such low viscosity values result in a large mid-Holocene highstand (order 10 m) while the observations indicate a monotonic RSL rise throughout this interval. Our results indicate that Earth models able to simulate time-dependent viscosity (i.e., those that include transient and/or non-Newtonian deformation) might be required to fit the Maine RSL data set.

Relative sea level response to mixed carbonate-siliciclastic sediment loading along the Great Barrier Reef margin

The continental shelf along northeastern Australia is the world's largest mixed carbonate-siliciclastic passive margin and the location of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Following sea-level transgression during the last deglaciation, extensive sediment was deposited along the GBR due to neritic carbonate deposition (including shelf edge reefs, Holocene reefs and Halimeda bioherms) and fluvial discharge of terrigenous siliciclastic sediments. Such sediment loading can alter local relative sea level (RSL) by several metres through the sediment isostatic adjustment (SIA) process, a signal that is poorly constrained at the GBR. In this study, we used a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model to develop an ensemble-based sediment loading history for the GBR since Marine Isotope Stage 2 (MIS 2). A Bayesian style framework is adopted to calibrate the sediment history ensemble and GIA model parameters using a sea-level database. According to our results, 1853.7 Gt (1613.1-2078.7 Gt, 95% confidence interval) of sediment have been deposited across the GBR since MIS 2 (28 ka BP), causing spatially variable relative sea-level change with the highest magnitude (0.9-1.1 m) found in the outer shelf of the southern central GBR (18.4-21.6∘ S). Because the SIA-induced RSL rise is unrelated to ice mass loss, failing to correct for this signal will lead to systematic overestimation of grounded ice volume by up to ∼4.3 × 105 km3 during the Last Glacial Maximum. Additionally, we found that spatial variation in sediment loading and coastal environment may explain the different RSL history documented by published fossil coral reef records from Noggin Pass and Hydrographer's Passage. These results highlight the importance of considering SIA for any postglacial sea-level studies adjacent to large sediment systems. Lastly, by quantifying both the GIA and SIA signals, we provide a spatially and temporally complete RSL reconstruction that is well-suited to be used as a boundary condition to study the evolution of the GBR shelf and slope sedimentary system.

Resolving Uncertainties in Foraminifera-Based Relative Sea-Level Reconstruction: a Case Study from Southern New Zealand

Abstract Since the pioneering work of David Scott and others in the 1970s and 1980s, foraminifera have been used to develop precise sea-level reconstructions from salt marshes around the world. In New Zealand, reconstructions feature rapid rates of sea-level rise during the early to mid-20th century. Here, we test whether infaunality, taphonomy, and sediment compaction influence these reconstructions. We find that surface (0–1 cm) and subsurface (3–4 cm) foraminiferal assemblages show a high degree of similarity. A landward shift in assemblage zones is consistent with recent sea-level rise and transgression. Changes associated with infaunality and taphonomy do not affect transfer function-based sea-level reconstructions. Applying a geotechnical modelling approach to the core from which sea-level changes were reconstructed, we demonstrate compaction is also negligible, resulting in maximum post-depositional lowering of 2.5 mm. We conclude that salt-marsh foraminifera are indeed highly accurate and precise indicators of past sea levels.

Within-region replication of late Holocene relative sea-level change: An example from southern New England, United States

Tide-gauge measurements in the western North Atlantic Ocean show coherent, multi-decadal relative sea-level (RSL) trends across multiple spatial scales. Proxy reconstructions developed from salt-marsh sediment can extend this instrumental record. However, the degree of coherence in proxy reconstructions is underexamined through within-region replication. To explore within-region replication, we developed a new RSL reconstruction from Fox Hill Marsh, Rhode Island to complement similar records at nearby sites. We established the elevation of former sea level from assemblages of foraminifera and bulk-sediment δ13C values using a Bayesian transfer function. We employed radiocarbon dating and recognition of pollution horizons to construct a core chronology. Since ∼1200 BCE, RSL rose by ∼3.7 m at Fox Hill Marsh. After correction for glacial isostatic adjustment, application of a statistical model intended to quantify (multi-) century-scale trends showed that the fastest rate of rise in at least the past 3000 years was 1.71 ± 0.84 mm/yr (95% credible interval) in 2020 CE. This result replicates regional tide-gauge measurements and other proxy reconstructions. Using an alternative statistical model constructed to identify sub-centennial sea-level changes, we examined if there was a hotspot of 18th century rise in the northeastern United States and found no spatially-coherent trend (i.e., occurring at all or most sites). This lack of replication indicates that accelerated rise during the 18th century is likely local (site-specific) in scale, or an artifact of individual reconstructions. Continued efforts to replicate RSL reconstructions will increase confidence in the accuracy of records and their subsequent interpretation.

Quaternary coral, coralline algal and vermetid assemblages as sea-level indicators: a review

Corals, coralline algae and vermetid gastropods are indirect (marine limiting) relative sea-level (RSL) indicators. The precision in sea-level reconstruction based on fossils of those organisms depends on the probable palaeodepth in which they grew. Constraining such palaeodepth depends, in turn, on the available information about the habitats of their living counterparts. Diverse genera, species and species assemblages of corals, coralline algae and vermetid gastropods have historically been proposed as reliable indicators of narrow, shallow depth ranges. However, the increased information on depth distribution of marine benthos in the last two decades has challenged some early assumptions about depth ranges of taxa considered diagnostic of precise palaeodepths. Here, the authors test the reliability of coral, coralline algal and vermetid assemblages that have been extensively used in RSL reconstructions in the light of data from Ocean Biogeographical Information System (OBIS) and other recently published data. In the Indo-Pacific province, these data support the use of the robust-branching and the shallow, high-energy encrusting coral assemblages with a 0 to 10 m uncertainty. In both cases many component species have unimodal distributions and both median and average water depths are shallower than 10 m. The reliability of these coral assemblages as indicative of shallow water depths is strengthened when corals are encrusted by thick plants of the coralline alga Porolithon gr. onkodes. According to OBIS data, coralline algae of this species group in the Indo-Pacific are restricted to very shallow waters (95% probability of occurrence shallower than 0.2 m and in 99.6% of records shallower than 6 m). However, such a narrow depth range and the overall scarce data on coralline algal species in the OBIS database are questionable due to difficulties of coralline algal species identification with the naked eye. A comprehensive survey of the modern distribution of coralline algae at One Tree Reef (southern Great Barrier Reef) indicates that P. gr. onkodes has a log-normal distribution with median depth of less than 5 m and 95% of occurrence probability of thick crusts (&gt; 0.2 mm) shallower than 8.8 m. Data on modern distribution of vermetids are scarce. In the OBIS database, vermetid species are reported from relatively wide depth ranges. However, relatively high densities (&gt; 10 individuals per m2) on coral and coralline algal surfaces only occur from above mean low tide to some 6 m depth. In the Western Atlantic-Caribbean province Acropora palmata is the most precise RSL marker and no additional components of fossil assemblages improve its palaeodepth information. The confident use of coralgal and vermetid assemblages as RSL indicators relies on the identification of fossil corals and coralline algae at the species or species-group level. The scarcity of available data highlights the need for further studies on distribution of coralline algal species and vermetid in modern coral reefs from a variety of oceans and reef settings.

Relative sea-level change in South Florida during the past ~5000 years

A paucity of detailed relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions from low latitudes hinders efforts to understand the global, regional, and local processes that cause RSL change. We reconstruct RSL change during the past ~5 ka using cores of mangrove peat at two sites (Snipe Key and Swan Key) in the Florida Keys. Remote sensing and field surveys established the relationship between peat-forming mangroves and tidal elevation in South Florida. Core chronologies are developed from age-depth models applied to 72 radiocarbon dates (39 mangrove wood macrofossils and 33 fine-fraction bulk peat). RSL rose 3.7 m at Snipe Key and 5.0 m at Swan Key in the past 5 ka, with both sites recording the fastest century-scale rate of RSL rise since ~1900 CE (~2.1 mm/a). We demonstrate that it is feasible to produce near-continuous reconstructions of RSL from mangrove peat in regions with a microtidal regime and accommodation space created by millennial-scale RSL rise. Decomposition of RSL trends from a network of reconstructions across South Florida using a spatio-temporal model suggests that Snipe Key was representative of regional RSL trends, but Swan Key was influenced by an additional local-scale process acting over at least the past five millennia. Geotechnical analysis of modern and buried mangrove peat indicates that sediment compaction is not the local-scale process responsible for the exaggerated RSL rise at Swan Key. The substantial difference in RSL between two nearby sites highlights the critical need for within-region replication of RSL reconstructions to avoid misattribution of sea-level trends, which could also have implications for geophysical modeling studies using RSL data for model tuning and validation.

IMPLICATIONS OF SINGLE-STEP GRAPHITIZATION FOR RECONSTRUCTING LATE HOLOCENE RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL USING RADIOCARBON-DATED ORGANIC COASTAL SEDIMENT

ABSTRACTLate Holocene relative sea-level reconstructions are commonly generated using proxies preserved in salt-marsh and mangrove sediment. These depositional environments provide abundant material for radiocarbon dating in the form of identifiable macrofossils (salt marshes) and bulk organic sediment (mangroves). We explore if single-step graphitization of these samples in preparation for radiocarbon dating can increase the number and temporal resolution of relative sea-level reconstructions without a corresponding increase in cost. Dating of salt-marsh macrofossils from the northeastern United States and bulk mangrove sediment from the Federated States of Micronesia indicates that single-step graphitization generates radiocarbon ages that are indistinguishable from replicates prepared using traditional graphitization, but with a modest increase in error (mean/maximum of 6.25/15 additional 14C yr for salt-marsh macrofossils). Low 12C currents measured on bulk mangrove sediment following single-step graphitization likely render them unreliable despite their apparent accuracy. Simulated chronologies for six salt-marsh cores indicate that having twice as many radiocarbon dates (since single-step graphitization costs ∼50% of traditional graphitization) results in narrower confidence intervals for sample age estimated by age-depth models when the additional error from the single-step method is less than ∼50 14C yr (∼30 14C yr if the chronology also utilizes historical age markers). Since these thresholds are greater than our empirical estimates of the additional error, we conclude that adopting single-step graphitization for radiocarbon measurements on plant macrofossils is likely to increase precision of age-depth models by more than 20/10% (without/with historical age markers). This improvement can be implemented without additional cost.

Isostatic Adjustment, Vertical Motion Rate Variation and Potential Detection of Past Abrupt Mass Unloading

Intraplate volcanic islands are often considered as stable relief with constant vertical motion and used for relative sea-level reconstruction. This study shows that large abrupt mass unloading causes non-negligible isostatic adjustment. The vertical motion that occurs after abrupt mass unloading is quantified using a modeling approach. We show that a giant landslide causes a coastline uplift of 80–110 m for an elastic thickness of 15 km &lt; Te &lt; 20 km in Tahiti. Theoretical cases also reveal that a coastal motion of 1 m occurs for an abrupt mass unloading involving a displaced volume of 0.2 km3 and influences relative sea-level reconstruction. In Tahiti, a change in the subsidence rate of 0.1 mm/yr (from 0.25 to 0.15 mm/year) occurred during the last 6 kyr and could be explained by an abrupt mass unloading involving a minimum volume of 0.2 km3, 6 ± 1 kyr ago.

The importance of non-tidal water-level variability for reconstructing Holocene relative sea level

Salt-marsh sediment is an important geological archive for reconstructing Holocene relative sea level. The vertical uncertainty of these reconstructions is usually quantified as proportional to tidal range, resulting in a presumed primacy of microtidal regions for generating precise records. We analyzed hourly water-level predictions and measurements over 1983–2001 from 43 tide gauges on the U.S. Atlantic coast to quantify the (1) relationship between elevation (relative to tidal datums) and duration of inundation; and (2) relative importance of astronomical tides and non-tidal (meteorological, hydrologic, and oceanographic) processes. Non-tidal processes are more likely to exert a proportionally large influence on water levels in regions with small astronomical tides, and less likely to do so where tides are large. In some microtidal regions (e.g., Chesapeake Bay), the precision of RSL reconstructions is likely overestimated, while in regions with large tidal range (e.g., Gulf of Maine) it may be underestimated. Adopting an inundation frequency rather than predicted astronomical datum for the upper limit of salt-marsh distribution may reduce this bias. Relative sea-level reconstructions often assume constant tidal range through time, but in some microtidal regions this assumption should be expanded to explicitly describe additional stationarity of non-tidal contributions.

Reproducibility and variability of earthquake subsidence estimates from saltmarshes of a Cascadia estuary

ABSTRACTWe examine fossil foraminiferal assemblages from 20 sediment cores to assess sudden relative sea‐level (RSL) changes across three mud‐over‐peat contacts at three salt marshes in northern Humboldt Bay, California (~44.8°N, −124.2°W). We use a validated foraminiferal‐based Bayesian transfer function to evaluate the variability of subsidence stratigraphy at a range of 30‐6000 m across an estuary. We use the consistency in RSL reconstructions to support estimates of coseismic subsidence from megathrust earthquakes. To assess the variability of subsidence estimates, we analyzed: nine examples of the 1700 CE earthquake (average of 0.64 ±0.14 m subsidence; range of 0.24 ± 0.27 to 1.00 ± 0.44 m), five examples of the ca. 875 cal a BP earthquake (average of 0.43 ±0.16 m; range of 0.41 ± 0.36 to 0.48 ± 0.39 m), and six examples of the ca. 1120 cal a BP earthquake (average of 0.70±0.18 m; range of 0.47 ± 0.36 to 0.80 ± 0.49 m). Our subsidence estimates suggest ~±0.3 m of within‐site (intrasite) variability, which is consistent with previous research. We also identify inconsistencies between sites (intersite) at northern Humboldt Bay greater than one‐sigma uncertainties, driven by variable foraminiferal assemblages in the mud overlying the 1700 CE subsidence contact. Therefore, we recommend at least two quantitative microfossil reconstructions across the same stratigraphic sequence from different marsh sites within an estuary to account for estimate variability and provide increased confidence in vertical coseismic deformation estimates. Our results have broad implications for quantitative, microfossil‐based reconstructions of coseismic subsidence at temperate coastlines globally.

Holocene evolution and signature of environmental change of the Burullus lagoon (Nile Delta) deciphered from a long sediment record

This study presents high-resolution multi-proxy analyses of a well-dated sediment core (BR-1, 19.20 m long) retrieved from the Nile Delta, aiming to reconstruct the Holocene evolution of the Burullus lagoon. In particular, we focus on the morphodynamical processes, sediment provenances and related hydro-climatic changes. The Holocene strata of the lagoon coast comprise Early-Holocene marine transgressive facies and the Mid-Late Holocene retrogressive deltaic facies. Although BR-1 shows no river-channel facies, two peaks of magnetic susceptibility (MS) at ca. 8.0–7.0 ka (also associated with a high sedimentation rate of 50 mm/yr) and 3.5–2.0 ka evoke phases of greater morphodynamic influence of palaeo-Nile branches on the lagoon's development. Both dated peat layers (ca. 13 m and 8 m below MSL) and lagoon muds intercalated in BR-1, together with previously-dated peat strata were benchmarked relatively to MSL for the reconstruction of relative Holocene sea level in the study area. Our results show considerable land lowering on the Burullus coast indicated by a sea-level elevation, ca. 4–1 m lower than the one reconstructed along adjacent coastlines where less land subsidence occurred. The lagoon system began to form after ca. 6.0 ka in response to deceleration in sea-level rise and, being a shallower water body, both macrofauna (Cerastoderma glaucum etc.) and ostracods (Cyprideis torosa) of brackish-water nature emerged. In addition, geochemical data from BR-1 provide insights into environmental change in association with basin-wide hydro-climate fluctuations. Concomitant peaks in Fe/Al, Ti/Al and Cr/Al ratios (mafic origin), together with higher Zr/Al and Hf/Al ratios (felsic origin) before ca. 8.0 ka suggest sediment provenances derived from the White and the Blue Nile during the main African Humid Period (AHP). Since then, Ti/Al kept slightly ascending core-upwards with two pulses at 7.8–7.3 ka and 3.5–2.0 ka, which was asynchronous to Zr/Al and Hf/Al. This corroborates more sediments of basaltic origin transported to the delta coast after the main AHP due to southerly shift in the position of the ITCZ. The two periods of Ti/Al pulse are consistent with the MS peaks in BR-1, suggesting that palaeo-Nile branches remained active during 8.0–7.0 ka and 3.0–2.0 ka nearby.

A statistical framework for integrating nonparametric proxy distributions into geological reconstructions of relative sea level

Abstract. Robust, proxy-based reconstructions of relative sea-level (RSL) change are critical to distinguishing the processes that drive spatial and temporal sea-level variability. The relationships between individual proxies and RSL can be complex and are often poorly represented by traditional methods that assume Gaussian likelihood distributions. We develop a new statistical framework to estimate past RSL change based on nonparametric, empirical modern distributions of proxies in relation to RSL, applying the framework to corals and mangroves as an illustrative example. We validate our model by comparing its skill in reconstructing RSL and rates of change to two previous RSL models using synthetic time-series datasets based on Holocene sea-level data from South Florida. The new framework results in lower bias, better model fit, and greater accuracy and precision than the two previous RSL models. We also perform sensitivity tests using sea-level scenarios based on two periods of interest – meltwater pulses (MWPs) and the Holocene – to analyze the sensitivity of the statistical reconstructions to the quantity and precision of proxy data; we define high-precision indicators, such as mangroves and the reef-crest coral Acropora palmata, with 2σ vertical uncertainties within ± 3 m and lower-precision indicators, such as Orbicella spp., with 2σ vertical uncertainties within ± 10 m. For reconstructing rapid rates of change in RSL of up to ∼ 40 m kyr−1, such as those that may have characterized MWPs during deglacial periods, we find that employing the nonparametric model with 5 to 10 high-precision data points per kiloyear enables us to constrain rates to within ± 3 m kyr−1 (1σ). For reconstructing RSL with rates of up to ∼ 15 m kyr−1, as observed during the Holocene, we conclude that employing the model with 5 to 10 high-precision (or a combination of high- and low-precision) data points per kiloyear enables precise estimates of RSL within ±∼ 2 m (2σ) and accurate RSL reconstructions with errors ≲ 0.7 m. Employing the nonparametric model with only lower-precision indicators also produces fairly accurate estimates of RSL with errors ≲1.50 m, although with less precision, only constraining RSL to ±∼ 3–4 m (2σ). Although the model performs better than previous models in terms of bias, model fit, accuracy, and precision, it is computationally expensive to run because it requires inverting large matrices for every sample. The new model also provides minimal gains over similar models when a large quantity of high-precision data are available. Therefore, we recommend incorporating the nonparametric likelihood distributions when no other information (e.g., reef facies or epibionts indicative of shallow-water environments to refine coral elevational uncertainties) or no high-precision data are available at a location or during a given time period of interest.