Regional Resource Allocation Research Articles

Post-earthquake functionality and resilience prediction of bridge networks based on data-driven machine learning method

Earthquake-induced bridge damage can disrupt transportation networks, potentially hindering emergency response and post-disaster recovery efforts, and posing public safety risks in affected areas. Rapid and accurate assessment of post-earthquake resilience of bridge networks is crucial for evaluating urban seismic performance. Traditional resilience assessment methods, constrained by complex traffic distribution processes, struggle to quickly evaluate the traffic performance of bridge networks during the post-earthquake recovery period. This paper presents a two-layer stacking ensemble model for predicting the functionality and resilience of bridge networks. The first layer integrates advantages of four base learners, including random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), convolutional neural network (CNN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The second layer completes regression of functionality based on a support vector machine (SVM). Bayesian optimization and 5-fold cross-validation are employed for hyperparameter tuning of the ensemble model. Finally, the proposed model is validated using the Sioux-Falls bridge network. Results demonstrate that the developed model provides rapid predictions of post-earthquake network functionality and resilience. Additionally, this model can guide post-earthquake repair decisions and assist in optimizing the allocation of regional repair resources.

Research on Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Expansion for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Considering Multilevel Urban Flows

With the development of urban agglomerations in China, the study of the interactions between cities has become a popular and difficult issue. Exploring the interactions between cities can help decision-makers optimize regional resource allocation and improve regional spatial patterns. Combining the urban flow model and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, this study simulates and analyzes the process of urban expansion in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, and investigates the impact of urban hierarchical structure differences on urban expansion. In this study, the role and influence of inter-city economy flow, transportation flow, population flow, and information flow on the development of urban agglomerations are comprehensively considered, and a multilevel urban interaction model is constructed based on a hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM). Based on the national BTH cooperation and development strategy, a multi-scenario simulation study of urban expansion is carried out using the HGLM-PLUS model. The results indicate the following: (1) compared to the traditional PLUS model, the coupled HGLM-PLUS model, which considers multilevel urban flows, improved the overall accuracy by 0.047, the Kappa coefficient by 0.207, and the figure of merit (FoM) index by 0.051; (2) under different simulation scenarios, the development trend under the cooperation and development policy in the BTH region is more stable, demonstrating a relatively smooth urbanization expansion trend; and (3) under the BTH cooperation and development background, the total area of construction land in the BTH region is expected to be maintained at around 1,164,500 km2 by 2040. The spatial expansion pattern will present a networked expansion with the core driving development, axes and belts connecting, and clusters breaking through.

The Impact Analysis of the Digital Economy on Green Total Factor Productivity in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

The deep integration of digitalization and greening is a driving force for promoting high-quality economic development. The rapid development of the digital economy empowers green innovation, and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, as the most developed region in China's economy, carries an important mission for the future economic and social development of China. Clarifying the differences and influencing factors of digital economy and green total factor productivity (GTFP) among different cities within the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is of great significance for formulating regional and national green development policies, achieving regional coordinated development, and environmental sustainability. This paper takes the impact of digital economy development on changes in GTFP as the starting point. Through the analysis of innovation efficiency, a theoretical model is established to reveal the internal mechanism by which digital economy development promotes GTFP. The research results show that digital economy development significantly promotes the improvement of GTFP, with greater impacts on large and medium-sized cities, regions with higher productivity levels, and regions with a more advanced industrial structure. Additionally, the internal mechanism test results indicate that digital economy development enhances GTFP by improving regional innovation efficiency and resource allocation efficiency.

The Influence Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on the Resource Mismatch in The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

In order to explore whether the continuous influx of foreign direct investment helps to improve the resource mismatch in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the data of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2003 to 2019, and finds that the inflow of FDI has a significant positive impact on the regional resource mismatch, especially the resource mismatch of capital factors. On this basis, a dynamic panel model was added to further verify the positive effect of FDI on improved capital mismatch. The study also found that the impact of foreign direct investment on resource mismatch in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has very obvious regional heterogeneity, which shows the improvement effect of foreign direct investment on capital mismatch in Hebei region, but no obvious improvement effect on Beijing and Tianjin. Therefore, in order to further improve the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region resources mismatch, accelerate Hebei economic development to narrow the gap with the Beijing and Tianjin, increase and effective use of foreign direct investment is a favorable for economic high quality development, suggested that the government in the FDI inflow at the same time, strengthen the regional coordinated development, promote resource balanced allocation, improve the regional resource coordination and allocation, in order to realize the sustainable development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as a whole.

Digital inclusive finance and regional economic resilience: Evidence from China's 283 Cities over 2011-2021

This paper uses the data from 283 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2021 to study the impact of digital inclusive finance on the resilience of the regional economy. The research results indicate that developing digital inclusive finance can significantly enhance regional economic resilience. The mechanism test results suggest that developing digital inclusive finance has improved regional economic resilience mainly by promoting regional innovation capacity and improving regional resource allocation efficiency. In addition, digital inclusive finance can significantly promote economic resilience in regions with higher economic and finance development levels. However, in regions with lower economic and financial development levels, it can significantly decrease regional economic resilience.

Optimal agricultural structure allocation based on carbon source/sink accounting

China has implemented policies to promote fuel ethanol development and achieve its dual-carbon goal. Under the policy, the significant modifications will occur in the allocation of land use resources within ethanol raw material cultivation regions. In the process of land use change, ensuring food provision and protecting the regional carbon sink are also crucial for sustainable development. This study explores carbon distribution in the Guiping section of the Yujiang River basin, where bioethanol raw materials are cultivated. Using the CLUE-S model, a multi-objective model prioritizing economic and ecological benefits is constructed. Four scenarios (i.e., the natural expansion scenario (NES); the food conservation scenario (FCS); the bioethanol feedstock conservation scenario (BCS), and the carbon sinks conservation scenario (CCS) are simulated, predicting land resource distribution by 2030. The total carbon sink decreased by 285.60 gC·m−2·a−1, showing a seasonal trend of higher levels in summer and lower levels in winter. In 2030, the total carbon sink decreased in the NES scenario, while it increased in the FCS and BCS scenarios. The CCS scenario had the largest increase, approximately 582.27 × 103 tC. These simulated scenarios consider various economic and environmental factors, providing a scientific basis for the efficient allocation of regional land resources. They also have significant implications for local energy, economic, and environmentally sustainable development, as well as promoting the achievement of carbon neutrality.

Provincial inequality of China's progress towards universal health coverage: An empirical analysis in 2016-21.

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) is a crucial target shared by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As UHC levels are influenced by factors such as the regional economy and resource allocation, subnational evidence in China is urgently needed. This study aimed to monitor provincial progress from 2016 to 2021, thereby informing the development of region-specific strategies. Based on the UHC monitoring framework proposed by the World Health Organization, a UHC index was constructed comprising the service coverage dimension (16 indicators) and financial protection dimension (four indicators). In this observational study, routinely collected health data from 25 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in mainland China were obtained from statistical yearbooks, relevant literature, and nationally representative surveys. The indices were calculated using geometric means. Socioeconomic inequalities among provinces were quantified using the slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII). From 2016 to 2021, China made laudable progress towards achieving UHC, with the index rising from 56.94 in 2016 to 63.03 in 2021. Most provinces demonstrated better performance in service coverage. Western provinces generally presented faster rates of progress, which were attributed to more substantial increases in financial protection. Despite significant disparities, with the UHC index ranging from 77.94 in Shanghai to 54.61 in Fujian in 2021, the overall equity of UHC has improved across the 25 provinces. SII decreased from 17.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 11.64, 23.93) to 12.25 (95% CI = 5.86, 18.63) and RII from 1.38 (95% CI = 1.29, 1.46) to 1.22 (95% CI = 1.16, 1.29). However, the non-communicable disease (NCD) domain experienced a drop in both index score and equity, underscoring the need for prioritised attention. In the context of SDGs and the 'Healthy China 2030' initiative, China has made commendable progress towards UHC, and inter-provincial equity has improved. However, substantial differences persisted. The equitable realisation of UHC necessitates prioritising the enhancement of service capacity and financial protection in less developed regions, particularly by addressing shortages in the general practitioner workforce and mitigating catastrophic payments. Developed regions should focus on preventing NCDs through effective interventions targeting key risk factors. This study provides insights for other countries to adopt comprehensive monitoring frameworks, identify subnational disparities, and introduce targeted policy initiatives.

Spatial-Temporal Variations and Driving Factors of the Coupling and Coordination Level of the Digital Economy and Sustainable Rural Development: A Case Study of China

Sustainable rural development forms a robust foundation for economic and social sustainability. Moreover, the digital economy acts as a catalyst for advancing rural sustainable development by altering the distribution of production factors. Thus, this study concentrates on 30 provinces in China, constructing an evaluation index system for both the digital economy and rural sustainable development. The study employs various methods and models to analyze the spatiotemporal changes and driving factors affecting the coupling and coordination between these two aspects. The research findings are as follows: the coupling and coordination levels among provinces in China have been on the rise year by year. By 2022, the coupling and coordination levels of most provinces range between 0.5 and 0.6. Regional disparities are the primary determinant of the poor overall coupling and coordination level in China. In 2022, the coupling and coordination level in the eastern region is 0.6663, compared to 0.5420 in the central region and 0.5087 in the western region. Factors such as urbanization, industrial structure transformation, technological innovation, higher education, economic development, and government support significantly influence the coupling and coordination level. Nevertheless, their effects vary across regions, with a more pronounced impact in the eastern region than in the central and western regions. Therefore, this paper proposes policy recommendations, including infrastructure optimization, rural digitization promotion, regional resource allocation enhancement, cross-regional development mechanism exploration, and differentiated development strategy implementation.

Research on the Impact and Opportunities of the Digital Economy Promoting the Development of Real Economy

The digital economy has infused vitality into the transformation and development of the real economy, urging enterprises to break through core technological barriers, address bottleneck issues, and improve their core competitiveness. It fosters the comprehensive digital transformation of agriculture, manufacturing, and service sectors, improving the dynamism of the real economy and fostering more consumption hotspots. Efforts are underway to enhance industrial supply chains and innovation chains, optimize regional resource allocation, and promote a virtuous cycle within the real economy. Initiatives are being undertaken to standardize the development of digital economic platforms, promote the high-quality development of regional economies, and leverage the advantages of the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics.

The spatio-temporal pattern and its influencing factors of production efficiency of health resources in China.

There is always a contradiction between the limited health resources and the unlimited demand of the population for health services, and only by improving the productivity of health resources can the health level of the population be improved as much as possible. Using prefecture-level administrative regions as spatial units, the paper analyzes the spatial pattern and changes of health productivity of health resources in China from 2000 to 2010, and uses a spatial panel Tobit model to examine the effects of factors such as technical level of health institutions, health service accessibility, public health policies and ecological environment quality on health productivity of health resources. The results show that with the Hu Huanyong line as the dividing line, the spatial heterogeneity of "high in the southeast and low in the northwest" in the health productivity of China's health resources is clear; as the regional differences narrow, the spatial correlation increases, and the spatial pattern of "overall dispersion and partial agglomeration" becomes more obvious. The fitting results of the spatial Durbin model reveal the direction and degree of influence of local and adjacent factors on the production efficiency of health resources. The positive influence of technical level of local health institutions and the accessibility of health services, the literacy level and the ability to pay for health services of residents in adjacent areas, the degree of urbanization of regional health resource allocation, climate suitability and the quality of the atmospheric environment are significant. And the negative influence of local residents' literacy and ability to pay for health services, the technical level of health institutions in adjacent areas and the degree of medicalization of health resource allocation are also significant. The influence of the degree of medicalization of local health resource allocation and the accessibility of health services in adjacent areas are significantly spatial-heterogeneous.

How can green finance promote the transformation of China's economic growth momentum? A perspective from internal structures of green total-factor productivity

Green financing is a crucial tool for promoting China's economic growth and helping to achieve carbon neutrality, but its implications on the internal dynamics of green economy remain uncertain. This study examines the impacts of green finance on China’s Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) and its internal factors, including technical innovation, industrial structure, balanced regional growth, scale, and resource allocation efficiency, by using a three-hierarchy meta-frontier Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and provincial panel data from 2008 to 2020. The findings show that: (1) regional green finance development may greatly boost the growth of GTFP, and the findings remain reliable after applying a series of robustness tests; (2) further research finds that green finance enhances GTFP by promoting technological innovation, facilitating the optimization of industrial structure, and improving resource allocation efficiency; and (3) there are significant spatial heterogeneities in this effect. The effect of green finance on GTFP is more pronounced in developed and market-oriented regions. This study helps to understand the pathways of green finance affecting the transformation of green economic growth and formulate differentiated regional policies in light of local conditions.

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF PRIMARY SCHOOL ADMINISTRATORS' PERSPECTIVES ON INCLUSIVE EDUCATION OF DIFFERENTLY ABLED CHILDREN IN INDIA AND UZBEKISTAN

The purpose of this study is to examine the current state of attitudes and practices of primary school administrators concerning inclusive education in two different countries Delhi, India and Tashkent, Uzbekistan with a comparative cross-sectional research design. The study seeks to establish the perception that the administrators have towards children with disabilities in regular schools as well as the factors that influence the perception. The purpose of the study is therefore to establish similarities and/or differences in the perceptions and practices of administrators from the two culturally and educationally distinct cities with regard to inclusive education. The participants were primary school administrators from public and government schools in Delhi and Tashkent to target the key persons responsible for supporting and coordinating inclusion in the schools. The sample was chosen with 677 male and 453 female administrators and 780 participants from Delhi, and 350 from Tashkent which provides a good mix of the participants’ views from different regions. The data were collected through survey; the questionnaire included questions on attitudes towards inclusion, training received, knowledge of policies in relation to inclusion, support and barriers. When the data was analyzed using SPSS software, it was found that there was a statistically significant difference in attitudes between the administrators in Delhi and those in Tashkent. Even with the similar training frequency in both the cities, the total training results are still unsatisfactory, which shows the requirement for more effective professional development. It also revealed that there were significant differences in the perceived availability of support systems and the challenges that were faced, which show that the regional policies and resource allocation have a big influence on the success of inclusive education. There was a difference in the perception among male and female administrators with the female administrators perceiving a higher impact of inclusive education and identifying more areas of need. These findings underscore the value of the contextualized approaches that take into consideration the particularities of various geographical and population settings.

Analysis of Fiscal Gaps and Regional Transfers Between Regions in Indonesia

This research aims to analyze fiscal gaps and regional transfers between regions in Indonesia within the framework of the fiscal decentralization policy implemented by the Indonesian government. The research method uses a qualitative descriptive research type using literature studies based on secondary data. The results of the research show that the fiscal gap and regional transfers between regions in Indonesia are a form of the failure of transfer funds between regions in Indonesia to significantly reduce economic inequality and public services between regions, which are also thought to be influenced by factors in regional financial management and resource allocation that are not yet efficient and effective. Even though transfer funds have been distributed to areas outside Java-Bali, if the management is not efficient and effective, the limited amount of funds will certainly not be able to catch up with the region. This condition is influenced by the implementation of centralized policies in Indonesia, which have proven to cause high regional dependence on the center. This dependence can be seen from the large contribution from the center, which far exceeds revenues from PAD. As a result of the centralized budget policy pattern at the center, high vertical fiscal inequality occurs.

The Regional Total Factor Productivity Changes of Healthcare Delivery in China: A Bootstrap Malmquist Data Envelopment Analysis.

Improving the productivity of healthcare delivery and optimizing the allocation of regional healthcare resources are crucial for the health providers. The objective of this study is to evaluate the productivity dynamics of healthcare delivery at the regional (provincial) level in China, to provide evidence-based policy implications. After a review of literature, actual number of open beds, number of occupational or assistant doctors, number of registered nurses, and number of other staff were selected as input variables. The number of diagnostic visits and number of discharged inpatients were adopted as the output indicators. The panel data of 31 provinces in mainland China from 2010 to 2019 were extracted from Health Statistics Yearbook. Bootstrap-Malmquist Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model was used to measure the total factor productivity changes (TFPC) and its components. During the study period, the analysis of total factor productivity (TFP) in China revealed a declining trend with an average annual decline of 0.9% (ranging from 0.860 to 1.204). For each of the 31 provinces, the annual TFP scores varied from 0.971 to 1.029. On average, technical efficiency changes (TEC) had showed a downward trend from 2010-2011 (0.980) to 2013-2014 (0.982), and then an upward trend in 2014-2015 (1.029) and the following three consecutive years since 2016-2017 (1.000, 1.013, 1.009). Similarly, the trend in technological changes (TC) was consistent with the TEC from 2010-2019, which fluctuated between 0.969 and 1.011 on average per year at the provincial level. Notably, the point of inflection appeared at 2013-2014. Regional healthcare inputs and outputs in mainland China saw an upward trend from 2010 to 2019. However, TFPC, TEC, and TC decreased across all 31 provinces. TFP experienced a declining trend from 2010 to 2014, followed by growth until 2019. This may be related to the new healthcare reform being implemented since 2009, as service efficiency and capacity may undergo a reversal at the beginning of the reform.

Analysis of resource utilization competition relationship supporting green low-carbon transformation development of the construction industry

Abstract In order to promote the green and low-carbon transformation development of China’s construction industry and support the optimal allocation of regional resources, this paper constructs a logistic mathematical model of industrial growth and analyzes the resource utilization competition between the construction industry and related industries. The results show that resource utilization competition can lead to the victory of one industry and the exclusion of another, or the stable coexistence of two competing industries, which mainly depends on the competition inhibition effect of the construction industry and related industries, and the relative size of resource load. The conclusion of this study will help the construction industry to innovate the mode and green construction technology, and promote the coordinated development of regional industrial systems.

A Bilevel Programming Model for Designing a Collaborative Network for Regional Railway Transportation and Logistics: The Case of the Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei Region in China

For the coordinated development of regional logistics, there is a need to break down the administrative barriers between cities and build an efficient and smooth regional logistics network. Integrating regional logistics resources to achieve cross‐regional optimal allocation is essential for efficient logistics networks. The accessibility and high capacity of the railway transportation network make it possible and necessary for the coordinated construction of railway transportation and logistics networks. This paper studies a bilevel programming model to analyse the collaborative network planning process of railway transportation and logistics. The objective is to take into account the existing layout of regional railway traffic network and the future needs of regional logistics. For the upper level of the bilevel programming model, the social, economic, and logistics service index of regional railway traffic nodes is considered to determine the numbers and locations of radiation of the cities. Meanwhile, the lower programming model uses a logistics gravity model, 0‐1 integer programming model, and logistics membership degree to calculate the logistics correlation between node cities and the radiation range of the hub cities. An empirical study of the Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei region in China shows the process and effectiveness of the bilevel programming model. Four distinctive logistics radiation circles, five trunk lines, nine hub‐spoke branch lines, and six branch lines are suggested. A railway traffic‐oriented regional logistics network provides a reference for regional railway traffic planning, thereby optimizing the allocation of regional logistics resources, improving the level of regional logistics services, and contributing to the development of the regional logistics industry.

Survival Rate and Short-term Outcomes of Extremely Preterm Infants: A Tertiary Care Center Experience from the Private Sector

Background: Premature birth is one of the leading causes of death in the world. The global incidence of prematurity ranges from 5% to 11% of all births. The aim of this study was to assess the outcome of extremely preterm infants born below 29 weeks in our institution, with regard to survival and major short-term outcomes, and compare our results with national and international centers. This study is the first to be conducted in a private tertiary care hospital in Saudi Arabia. Materials and Methods: This was a retrospective descriptive cohort study that reviewed the medical records of preterm infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit at the International Medical Center, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, between January 2014 and January 2020. We compared our results to the national data from King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center-Riyadh, King Abdulaziz Medical City (KAMC)-Jeddah and KAMC Riyadh, King Abdulaziz Medical City-Alhasa, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network, and the Canadian Neonatal Network. Results: A total of 92 preterm infants were included: 3, 8, 17, 17, 29, and 18 infants with a gestational age of 23 weeks, 24 weeks, 25 weeks, 26 weeks, 27 weeks, and 28 weeks, respectively. The mean gestational age was 25 weeks and 5 days. Fifty-four infants (58.7%) survived to hospital discharge. In terms of short-term outcomes, 13% had bronchopulmonary dysplasia, hemodynamically significant ductus arteriosus was present in 27%, and retinopathy of prematurity was found in 13%, necrotizing enterocolitis was diagnosed in 5.4%, while late-onset sepsis was reported in 23.9% of infants. Conclusion: Our study represents outcomes of Extremely Preterm Infants in a single Private tertiary Care Center from Saudi Arabia with a comparison to national and international data. Though it cannot be generalized our data can be used as an add-value cohort toward establishing countrywide neonatal network to better plan regional resource allocation and utilization and facilitate ongoing audit, benchmarking, and overall quality improvement initiatives.

Predicting future gully development in south-east Nigeria: A 10- Year Forecast (2020-2030)

This study investigates the trajectory of gully erosion in South-East Nigeria over the past decade (2010-2020) and employs an artificial neural network model to predict future gully development for the next ten years (2020-2030). The analysis reveals a substantial increase in gully areas across the states of Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, and Imo from 2010 to 2020, indicating a pressing environmental concern. The predictive model, validated at 79.24% correctness, anticipates a significant expansion of gully coverage by 2030. The implications of these predictions highlight the need for proactive measures to counteract the adverse effects of gully erosion on the environment, infrastructure, and communities. This study provides valuable insights for regional planning, resource allocation, and policy formulation, emphasizing the urgency of collaborative efforts to address the escalating threat of gully erosion in South-East Nigeria.

Identifying the Relationships between Landscape Pattern and Ecosystem Service Value from a Spatiotemporal Variation Perspective in a Mountain–Hill–Plain Region

Identifying the changes in landscape pattern and ecosystem service value (ESV) and clarifying their relationship in temporal changes and spatial variations can provide insight into regional landscape features and scientific support for regional landscape planning. Leveraging land use data from the Yihe River Basin, we quantitatively assessed the landscape pattern and ESV shifts spanning from 2000 to 2018 using the landscape pattern indexes and the equivalence factor method. We employed Pearson correlation metrics and the geographically weighted regression model to explore the interrelation of their spatiotemporal variations. Our results show the following: (1) Forestland represents the most expansive land cover category. Apart from construction land, all other types experienced a decline in area. The most notable change occurred in the area of construction land. (2) The aggregation of the overall landscape shows a downward trend. The levels of fragmentation, landscape diversity, and richness increased. (3) Throughout the entire study period, the overall ESV gradually decreased, and the land cover type with the greatest contribution to the ESV was forestland. (4) In terms of temporal changes, the patch density and edge density of the overall area are significantly negatively correlated with total ESVs. The largest values for the patch index, perimeter–area fractal dimension (PAFRAC), and aggregation are significantly positively correlated with total ESVs. (5) In terms of spatial variation, the contagion index (CONTAG), PAFRAC, and the Shannon diversity index (SHDI) were noticeably correlated with ESVs. The CONTAG is positively correlated with ESVs upstream, but negatively midstream and downstream. The SHDI is negatively correlated with ESVs upstream, but positively midstream and downstream. The PAFRAC exhibits a positive correlation with ESVs for the most part. The association between the landscape pattern indexes and ESVs exhibits temporal and spatial inconsistencies in most instances, suggesting a spatiotemporal scale effect in their relationship. This study recommends that the local government devises a long-term strategy for urban development and exercises stringent control over the unregulated expansion of construction land. Through reasonable territorial spatial planning, government departments could enhance the connectivity of the overall landscape pattern of the Yihe River Basin to achieve the reasonable allocation and sustainable development of regional resources.

Dynamic simulation of the water-land-food nexus for the sustainable agricultural development in the North China Plain

Inter-regional trade of agricultural products based on the flow of agricultural virtual resources is of great importance for sustainable agricultural development. We focused on grain crops (rice, wheat and maize) in the North China Plain (NCP), and used the Penman–Monteith equation to simulate crop water requirements. We further analyzed the flow of virtual land and virtual water associated with the grain trade using an environmentally expanded multi-regional input–output model. The coupling coordination of land, water, and food was evaluated to assess the rationality of regional agricultural production resource allocation. Between 2007 and 2017, agricultural virtual land and virtual water embodied in the grain trade between the NCP and other areas increased by 48.10 % and 34.41 %, respectively, indicating that the NCP is gradually consolidating its position as the main production area and distribution center of crops in China. Agricultural virtual resources in the NCP were mainly transported to the southeast coastal region, with an overall trend of resource movement from north to south. The total supply of agricultural land and water resources markedly increased in the NCP, whereas the transfer of virtual resources across regions showed a decreasing trend. Because of the irrational structure of crop cultivation and unevenness of regional resource allocation, the coupling coordination of the water–land–food nexus in the NCP is much lower than the national average. This study provides important information on the trade flows and coupling relationships of virtual water and land resources of three major food crops, which will help to alleviate resource pressure in agricultural production and promote sustainable agricultural development in the NCP.