Regional Energy Security Research Articles

Analysis of the Volatility of Wind Energy Production in Romania Applying the EGARCH Model

Purpose: The objective of the paper is to highlight the volatility of wind energy production, the renewable source of energy whose output is the most difficult to predict due to its dependence on climatic factors. The present research helps to analyze the risks assumed both by the producers who choose to invest in wind farms and the operator who has to balance the national energy system in case of production fluctuations. Many times, these risks are taken over, without their knowledge, by the final consumers who have to pay higher prices for the energy consumed. Design/methodology/approach: In this study, the EGARCH model was applied with the help of EVIEWS 12 software on a data series updated at least every 10 hours (1405 entries) regarding the evolution of wind energy production from January 2021 to January 2023. As a rule, the EGARCH model is used to analyse the volatility of indices in the financial field, but the present study, as well as others before, showed that it also fits perfectly in the case of renewable energy, the statistical tests applied to the results proving this fact. Findings: The results of the study show a GARCH term of 0.936, which points out a volatility comparable to some of the riskiest international stock indices. Research limitations/implications: This volatility is reflected through increases in balancing costs, ultimately borne by the energy consumers on the national market. Against this background, it is necessary to increase the stability of the national energy system, so that the balancing process would be less expensive and less dependent on imports. The solutions are varied - from the creation of stable non-polluting production capacities, such as the nuclear ones, to the thorough analysis of the characteristics of the areas where production systems from renewable sources are installed. It must be mentioned that the main limitation of this study is the long period considered, because the accuracy of the results could be better if the model was applied several times for data from consecutive, shorter periods. Originality/value: This study contributes to the theoretical identification of methods to forecast the volatility of renewable energy production and to highlight the vulnerabilities of increasing the share of this energy in the European energy mix. It tests the use of heteroscedastic models to estimate the volatility of the wind power supplied to the system, unlike most studies in the literature, which analyze the volatility of the energy market price. In addition, it proposes some solutions that could reduce or control this instability and ensure the regional energy security.

ЄВРО-СЕРЕДЗЕМНОМОРСЬКЕ ПАРТНЕРСТВО: ФОРМУВАННЯ ТА ДИНАМІКА ТРАНСФОРМАЦІЙ У КОНТЕКСТІ СУСПІЛЬНО-ПОЛІТИЧНИХ, ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНИХ ТА ЕКОНОМІЧНИХ ВИКЛИКІВ

The article is devoted to the current problem of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership in the context of sociopolitical, energy and economic challenges. The implementation of the Mediterranean vector of foreign policy by the European Union dates back to the 1950s. However, the policy of partnership was actualized only in the 21st century, which is determined by historical, geopolitical, economic, energy and socio-cultural factors. The article describes four stages of the formation and development of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership, defines the vectors, directions, features, forms and mechanisms of cooperation and cooperation. The dynamics of transformations of partnership and interaction strategies between the EU and the Mediterranean states are analyzed. Considerable attention is focused on the study of the impact of modern socio-political, economic, energy factors and historical events on the effectiveness of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership. Special attention is focused on the problems of illegal migration to the EU from the conflict zones of North Africa and the Middle East. The settlement of migration problems is considered as an actual vector and dimension of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership. In the context of modern regional and global challenges, the dynamics of the transformation of the Mediterranean vector of the European Union's foreign policy have been studied. The article indicates the positive dynamics of interstate interactions. The directions, features, vectors of the foreign policy strategies of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership (liberalization and intensification of trade; creation of a free trade zone between the EU and the countries of North Africa and the Middle East; implementation of investment projects; introduction of innovative technologies, standards; active cooperation and interaction in the energy sector) were comprehensively studied. formation of the regional energy security system). The priority directions of the partnership between the EU and the Mediterranean countries are the implementation of projects on the use of solar energy, the introduction of alternative energy sources, and the settlement of environmental and energy problems. In the context of modern security geopolitical challenges, the goals of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership are to ensure peace and security; settlement of acute crises and conflicts; democratization of the political systems of the Mediterranean countries; fight against terrorism and illegal migration.

Responses of hydroelectricity generation to streamflow drought under climate change

Hydropower is a key renewable energy source. It is widely developed worldwide to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change. Hydroelectric generation (HG) is highly susceptible to streamflow and is negatively affected by streamflow droughts. However, there is a lack of studies on the impact of streamflow drought on HG in the coming future period under climate change. Therefore, to address the above challenge, an HG model is constructed to estimate future HG in China using simulated streamflow from four global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by four global climate models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results reveal that, compared with the baseline period of 1951–2005, more than 25% of the hydropower plants are expected to experience an HG reduction (with a 10-year return period) of greater than 20% of the baseline-mean annual HG in the future. More than 10% of installed capacity may suffer HG reductions of more than 30%. HG in the Yangtze River valley, which accounts for more than 22% of China's installed hydroelectric capacity, is expected to decline by more than 14% during 2031–2060. The HG reduction of several hydropower plants in northwestern and southern China will be greater than 60%. To combat the impact of streamflow droughts on regional energy security, it is desired that policymakers promote the development of a cross-regional energy integration network.

ACCELERATING RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT TOWARD ENERGY SECURITY

The need for electricity in Indonesia increases daily, including in the North Halmahera district. Using primary energy sources, which are still dominated by fossil fuels, will later affect national energy security sustainability. The new and renewable energy can be a solution for North Halmahera to overcome energy security problems and reduce its emission level. The North Halmahera Government seeks to utilize renewable energy sources to increase energy security by looking at energy availability, affordability, and sustainability. Therefore, this study aims to provide strategies or recommendations to accelerate renewable energy development in North Halmahera so that energy security and environmental sustainability in North Halmahera are maintained. Data will be collected from review of various literatures and government documents. Based on the RUED and the RUPTL, the North Halmahera Government can formulate and determine plans to accelerate the fulfillment of regional energy security by increasing energy availability, affordability, and sustainability. The North Halmahera Government can make more efficient regional regulations and not be burdensome to various parties. Regional regulations must provide security for investors, developers, and buyers of renewable energy products.

Spatio-Temporal Matching and Nexus of Water–Energy–Food in the Yellow River Basin over the Last Two Decades

There is an important practical significance to understanding and evaluating the nexus of water, energy, and food (WEF) for ensuring regional security. The Yellow River Basin is a typical area displaying the contradiction between water, energy, and food development caused by the difference in resource distribution and production attributes. The nexus of the WEF system in the Yellow River Basin is systematically and innovatively studied from different perspectives. The aim of the research is to analyze the distribution and transfer direction of single resource elements, the matching and evolution of two kinds of resources linked by water resources, and finally the nexus based on Copula function. The results show that water resources, farmland, and energy production are concentrated in different areas, while the center of gravity shifted to the northwest, northeast, and west of the basin, respectively. For the resource balance of energy production and available industrial water resources, the matching degree has become worse in recent years. For the resource balance of farmland areas and available agricultural water resources, the matching degree in the most source area and middle reaches has improved, but the gap among different sub-regions has widened slightly. It is proven that the three-dimensional t Copula is well characterized by the nexus of the WEF system in the Yellow River Basin. The joint not exceeding the probability of the WEF (W ≤ 7.08 × 1010 m3, E ≤ 6.24 × 108 TCE, F ≤ 4.23 × 107 t) is about 0.3–0.4. The WEF system in the Yellow River Basin (Gn = 0.728 and 0.688) may still have certain security risks in the future compared with other regions in the world, which needs to be regulated by more reasonable policies. This study can provide a theoretical basis for ensuring regional water, energy, and food security.

Energy security assessment of small Pacific Island Countries – Sustaining the call for renewable energy proliferation

Using a contemporary assessment framework, we assess the energy security status of small Pacific Island Countries (PICs) in line with its three broad perspectives. These perspectives – sovereignty, robustness, and resilience encapsulate vulnerabilities and threats to vital energy systems, including their respective political and economic strata. Based on a recently adopted regional energy security framework, we unpack these perspectives and generate a collective evaluative judgment of its impact across small PICs. The results resonate with the commonly held notion that energy security concerns are significant and likely to become more severe if expanding energy needs are not addressed through the proliferation of renewable and sustainable energy applications. Another emerging yet familiar concern is that the energy import bill will become more unsustainable for these cash-strapped islands. The findings demonstrate that PICs have severe constraints to overcome, especially with acquiring appropriate technologies and building institutional capacities to implement their respective energy policies and realise their critical energy targets.

Study on Potential Role and Benefits of Liquified Natural Gas Import Terminal in Latvia

Abstract Natural gas is relatively clean energy source, which emits less greenhouse gases (hereinafter – GHG), compared to other fossil fuels, such as hard and brown coal, and therefore it may be the most feasible resource to ensure smooth energy transition towards Europe’s climate neutrality by 2050. Traditional natural gas can be easily transported and used in liquefied (hereinafter – LNG) or compressed form. As for biomethane, in future it also can be used in liquefied (hereinafter – bioLNG) and compressed form, as well as transported by means of the current natural gas infrastructure. It can also significantly enhance regional and national energy security and independence, which has been challenging for the European Union (hereinafter – EU) over at least several decades. Issue on energy independence, security of supply, alternative natural gas sources has been in a hotspot of the Baltic energy policy makers as well. Now, considering Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, since late February 2022, a problem of the EU natural gas dependency on the Russian Federation has escalated again and with force never before experienced. The European natural gas prices also hit records, as the natural gas prices in the Netherlands Title Transfer Facility reached 345 euros per megawatt-hour (hereinafter – EUR/MWh) in March 2022. Therefore, LNG import terminal is the only viable option to reduce national dependency of the so-called pipe gas which in some cases, due to the insufficient interconnections, may be delivered from very limited number of sources. The European policy makers and relevant institutions are currently working towards radical EU natural gas supply diversification, where LNG deliveries coming from outside of Russia will certainly take a central stage. In case of Latvia, the potential benefits of the LNG terminal development in Skulte were evaluated in order to reduce energy independence of the Russian natural gas deliveries in the Baltic region and to introduce new ways and sources of the natural gas flows to the Baltics. LNG terminal in Skulte could ensure significant capital investment cost reduction comparing to other projects proposed for Latvia in different periods, due to already existing natural gas transmission infrastructure and the relative closeness to the Incukalns underground gas storage (hereinafter – UGS). Various aspects, such as technical, political and economic ones, were analysed to assure that Skulte LNG terminal would be a real asset not only to customers of Latvia, but also to those of the whole Baltic region, where in future it would be possible to use biomethane for efficient utilisation of existing and developing natural gas infrastructure.

Hydroelectric production in Akosombo, and the development of irrigated agriculture upstream, a fair balance to be found to reconcile regional energy and food security. - Challenges of the Volta Basin Water Charter

The Volta River is a West African river that flows from Burkina Faso to Ghana where it empties into the Atlantic Ocean. It basin extends over six countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali and Togo. These states, members of the Volta Basin Authority, have committed themselves to drawing up a Water Charter. One of the challenges of this international agreement is to agree on a reasonable level of abstraction to reconcile food and energy security for the populations, while guaranteeing the minimum needs of the ecosystems. Supported by an appropriation of the needs-resources balance through the use of Lego® bricks, their reflection was supported by a hydro-economic analysis. This analysis consisted in comparing the added value associated with an agricultural abstraction - which leads to a definitive consumption of water upstream of the basin, for example in Bagré in Burkina Faso - and the one associated with the same quantity of water if it had been allowed to flow and turbined in one of the hydroelectric facilities located further downstream, for example in the large Akosombo dam in Ghana. The results show that the agricultural valorisation of a continuous abstraction of one m3/s, i.e. 30 Mm3 per year, allows to irrigate 1,500 ha and generates an added value of 1,300 M FCFA per year, i.e. 44 FCFA/m3. This volume of 30 Mm3, taken upstream of the dam would induce a loss of hydroelectric production of 6 GWh/year, worth 297 M FCFA, i.e. 10 FCFA/m3. The economic value of each m3 withdrawn to develop irrigated agriculture upstream of the basin is thus higher than that of each m3 turbined in the Akosombo-Kpong complex. Within the limit of an acceptable reduction of hydropower production, the economic development of the basin as a whole would thus benefit from the development of irrigated agriculture.

Research on the evaluation of China’s regional energy security and influencing factors

ABSTRACT Significant increases in energy demand and a higher pressure on energy supply pose a great threat to energy security. This study evaluated the level of regional energy security in China and explored the influencing factors of energy security based on the spatial lag model. The results show that China’s overall and regional energy security is generally not high. Technological progress, ecological environment, and energy production can improve energy security, while energy consumption intensity, and population size negatively affect regional energy security. Moreover, the results indicate that the marginal effect of energy consumption intensity on energy security decreases as the technological level increases. Therefore, encouraging the development of high-tech industries, controlling the size of the population, stabilizing international energy supply, and strengthening foreign cooperation are of great significance to the improvement of energy security.

Renewable Power Potential from Municipal Solid Waste: A Case Study in Jiangxi, China

Development of renewable energy is important to modern society because climate change induced from fossil use has resulted in severe and possibly irreversible environmental impacts such as sea level rise, desertification, diminished land productivity, and increased possibility of extreme events. Therefore, the utilization of renewable and clean energy not only increases regional energy security but also alleviate the environmental risk. In this study, we employ the lifecycle assessment to examine the electricity generation from the use of municipal solid waste in China, and then investigate the emission reduction from this application. Different supply patterns of the wastes are also compared to make the results more robust. The results show that if recycled wastes are fully utilized, approximately 11,107 GWh can be generated, along with a profit of $1.2 billion from energy sales. In this case, the CO2 emission will reduce by 9.7 million metric tons. If the food waste is used in compositing and animal feed, the net power generation and emission reduction are about 8,216 GWh and 7.32 million metric tons, respectively. If additional 30% of recycled wastes are assumed to be utilized in their past use, the power generation, profit, and emission reduction will further decrease to 5,750 GWh, $697 million, and 5.12 metric tons, respectively. The results point out that the utilization of recycled wastes can effectively reduce the reliance on fossil fuels, improve energy security, and increase social welfare. Insights of the results and policy implications are also discussed in detail.

Impact of industrialization on China’s regional energy security in the New Era

This research is one of the very few studies that seeks to examine the association between China’s industrial development and its energy sustainability. It does so by discussing the impact of industrialization on energy security in the new era, during which the focuses of industrialization and energy security in China have changed. The former has shifted from quantity-based expansion to quality-based growth, while the latter has shifted from supply security to comprehensive security, including matching security. Since researchers have paid little attention to evaluations of industrialization and energy security from the perspective of the new era, this study aims to address this gap. An empirical study on the impact of industrialization on energy security is conducted, taking 30 provinces in China as research objects. The findings show that China’s energy supply security and consumption security have improved but that its matching security has deteriorated, which will eventually lead to an overall deterioration in energy security. Industrialization, however, can improve levels of energy security, supply security, and consumption security. Moreover, green technology efficiency and the capital–labor ratio both can improve levels of energy security and supply security, the former can also improve the level of consumption security and the latter can also improve the level of matching security. In contrast, an increase in GDP per capita inhibits energy security, supply security, consumption security, and matching security. This study will be helpful for policymakers seeking to resolve the issue of energy sustainability in the context of industrialization in China’s new era.

From narratives to numbers: Spatial downscaling and quantification of future water, food & energy security requirements in the Indus basin

Integrated adaptation strategies are needed to achieve the highly interlinked Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for water, food- and energy security in the Indus basin. However, detailed quantitative scenarios for the plausible dimensions of future resource security requirements under socio-economic development are lacking. Here we define three quantitative and spatially downscaled scenarios for future water, food and energy requirements in the Indus basin and we assess the implications of socio-economic development for the integrated resource security challenge. High-resolution gridded scenarios for resource security requirements are developed by combining three regionalised and spatialised Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with quantitative regional water, food and energy security thresholds. The results demonstrate that by 2080 basin level water- and energy security requirements are likely to at least double and potentially triple compared to the current situation. Food requirements could increase only marginally and double at most. Migration and urbanisation additionally drive the growing requirements to spatially converge around the largest cities of the basin. This demonstrates that socio-economic development increases the complexity of the water-food-energy security challenge by increasing its magnitude and spatial concentration. Future research and policymaking should anticipate for this heterogeneous growth of resource security challenges when developing adaptation strategies.

Pathways to a more efficient and cleaner energy system in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area: A system-based simulation during 2015-2035

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is one of the most dynamic economic urban agglomerations in China, which has a big proportion of the nation's total energy demand. However, there has not been a systemic simulation into the performance of the GBA's energy system in terms of supply and demand, intensity and security during the on-going energy transition. In this study, we develop GBA-specific TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System), a system-based energy technology model to assess the effectiveness of existing policies on energy system optimization during 2015-2035. We simulate future energy consumption, efficiency, and security of GBA based on the expected changes of energy structure and other socioeconomic factors. Our results show that the energy consumption of the Pearl River Delta and Macao is expected to slowly grow until 2035, while that of Hong Kong would peak around 2025. The coal supply in GBA would decrease by half in 2035 compared to 2015, and the proportion of non-fossil energies would increase to 44%-45% in 2035 to meet the energy demand. Energy intensities of the Pearl River Delta, Hong Kong and Macao are likely to be reduced by 54%, 47%, and 31% by 2035 compared with 2015, respectively. Energy self-sufficiency rate in the GBA would increase from 10% in 2015 to 20-25% in 2035, which could benefit regional energy security. These simulation results show the explicit and long-term dynamics of energy system performances of GBA that are important for taking a more efficient and cleaner approach to energy transition.

Regional energy security goes South: Examining energy integration in South America

This article proposes to promote a regional approach to achieving energy security in South America. To this end, it first discusses the concept of energy security, concluding that it is a concept slippery, hard to define universally, because it is polysemic, multi-dimensional and context-dependent. Analyzing the South American case, initially focusing only on the Mercosur countries, we identify that there are different regional integration initiatives, such as the case of Itaipu Dam and GASBOL Pipeline, however the experiences are exclusively based on binational initiatives. Through an energy modeling called Open Source energy Modelling System using a new framework named South America Model Base (OSeMOSYS SAMBA), four scenarios are created with different levels of energy integration in the region. It is concluded that more integrated scenarios lead to a reduction in the need to increase installed capacity, as well as lower geographic and socio-environmental impacts, due to resource optimization and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation.

Measuring and improving regional energy security: A methodological framework based on both quantitative and qualitative analysis

As energy security has been an increasingly hot topic in research, a reliable and sound framework for allaying energy security is necessary. In this paper, it establishes a methodological framework based on quantitative and qualitative approaches for measuring and improving energy security from a broad sense. Firstly, it interprets the conceptual framework of energy security composed by seven dimensions, and 28 indicators are designed for its assessment. Then, Fuzzy AHP is used to indicate the importance of the dimensions and indicators, and the hybrid model of GRA-TOPSIS is introduced to evaluate energy security performance. Further, a qualitative root cause analysis is conducted with Why-Why Diagram to identify the possible causes affecting energy security. After that, a case study is conducted to investigate energy security of Henan province in China within the period of 2005–2017. The results indicate that, energy security is no longer a single-dimensional concept, but a synthetic term, and the technological, environmental, social, even political aspects can be improved to enhance energy security. The methodological framework with quantitative and qualitative techniques can help achieve an all-around understanding of energy security.

Method of Wavelet Analysis of Time Series to Assess the Effectiveness of the Country’s Energy Security

This article addresses the problems of energy security at the level of Russian regions, which is a particularly urgent in modern economic conditions characterized by global digitalization processes. In this case, the problem arises the need to develop mathematical tools for planning and assessing energy security in conditions of high uncertainty and fluctuations of the studied parameters of the external environment.The paper presents the mathematical justification for the use of wavelet analysis and the construction of spaces of scaling functions in order to obtain the theorem of multifunctional analysis of economic parameters and indicators of regional energy security, based on many intervals and determining the corresponding wavelet spaces.

Forecasting the primary energy consumption using a time delay grey model with fractional order accumulation

ABSTRACT Energy consumption prediction is a hot issue, which is of great significance to regional energy security. In the existing prediction research with small samples, the time delay characteristic of an energy consumption system in itself is often ignored. To reflect the time delay characteristic of an energy consumption system and accurately grasp its development trend, a novel nonlinear time delay grey model with fractional order accumulation is presented. The new model is utilized to forecast and analyze Guangdong’s primary energy consumption, in which the time delay parameter is ascertained by the grey correlation analysis method, and the other parameters are determined via particle swarm optimization. The results show the simulation accuracy of the new model is higher than those of the other 3 grey models, and the predicted results in the next three years can provide decision-making and theoretical reference for the relevant departments of Guangdong province.

Development of electricity industry on the basis of the use of the renewable energy sources in the regional energy security system

In the article presented, the authors prove the objective need for the development of the electricity industry of the Republic of Crimea on the basis of the active use of the renewable energy sources, caused by the world processes of the formation of the “green” economy. The object of the study is the territory of the Republic of Crimea - a bright representative of the energy deficit region. The development of the electricity industry of the Republic of Crimea on the basis of the use of the renewable energy sources serves as the basis for ensuring regional energy security, the fragility of which was determined by the political events of 2015. The authors studied the research papers of leading domestic and foreign scientists devoted to the analysis of the renewable energy sources in order to justify the further active development of a wind energy, a solar energy as well as bioenergy and landfill gas energy in the Republic of Crimea. The development of the Republic of Crimea’s electricity industry through the use of the renewable energy sources and local fuels is an essential area of modern active regional policy. It is determined by the fact that this direction, firstly, is considered as environmentally friendly generation, and secondly, contributes to a qualitative increase in regional energy security level.

Energy safety of the region on the example of the city of Sevastopol

Energy safety problems arise and require solutions at the macro and meso levels. Energy security contributes to the extensive and intensive development of industry and services, the creation of comfortable living conditions for the population of the region. At the same time, there is a problem of quantitative assessment of the energy security of the region. The purpose of this study is to find an indicator reflecting the state of regional energy security and its impact on the economy. The proposed methodology makes it possible to determine: the supply of fuel and energy resources, taking into account the availability of the resource and the level of its consumption; the level of energy security based on changes in the provision of energy resources, linked to fluctuations in the gross regional product. According to the studies carried out according to the developed methodology and based on the statistical data of the city of Sevastopol, the level of energy security of the region is positive, despite the negative values of the provision of energy resources (except for 2020). At the same time, the gross regional product shows growth. It can be assumed that subsequent periods of the city’s functioning will be characterized by economic growth. Further research by the authors will be aimed at predicting both the energy and economic security of the region.

Regional Security Assessment of Integrated Energy Systems with Renewables in China: A Grid-Connected Perspective

Stable and reliable integrated energy systems are one of the major issues related to sustainable regional and national energy development. Because most existing studies are conducted on whole countries, few address the effects of regional interaction and renewable energy. Therefore, a natural disaster risk assessment model (NDRAM) combined with spatial models is used as a general systematic tool to assess and resolve regional energy security, based on a framework of resources, generation, transmission, marketing and consumption, with 17 metrics. In particular, energy systems were treated as organic connected-units and their security status was regarded as a combined result of potential hazard and system vulnerability. The proposed method was applied to evaluate and classify the security situation of 31 Chinese provinces in 2016. The results showed that transmission had the most significant impact among five major risk sources. The closer grid connections have a stronger ability to deal with risks among regions, where renewables consumption could be better stimulated cross-regionally. In terms of a regional perspective, there is still a gap among different regions, and eastern China presented higher energy risk status. The most energy-hazard provinces are mainly in the east provinces with well-developed levels in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai. The least energy-vulnerable provinces are mainly in the abundant natural resources regions such as Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and Xinjiang. The NDRAM-based general model provides a systematic tool for quantitative assessment of regional energy security with a full accounting of regional interaction and renewable energy issues, which may help to develop clean energy, optimize system infrastructure and improve scientific management.