Regime Change Research Articles

Changing flux, persisting barriers: assessing the career mobility regime changes in France

Abstract Recent empirical research has shown a modest increase in career complexity throughout 20th century Europe. Little is known, however, about the career class mobility, despite the fact that social class is recognized as one of the main career boundaries. Modernization theory provides conflicting expectations regarding how social mobility should evolve over the life course as contemporary societies converge towards education-based meritocracies. Drawing on the French survey Formation-Qualification Professionnelle (Insee, 1970; 1977; 1985; 1993; 2003; 2014–2015) and using the EGP schema, I analyse both the absolute and relative measures of career class mobility, and I rely on the latter to define career class regimes, that I qualify in terms of the strength of the association between class positions held at different career stages and its structure (i.e., qualitative patterns). The findings of this article point to increasing career fluidity across cohorts, which implies a greater permeability of class barriers to career mobility. They also show, however, that these changes have not been associated with any significant modification in mobility patterns, meaning that the social distance and proximity of different social classes remain largely intact over time. Overall, the transformation in contemporary life courses and careers was not only slight but also partial when it comes to career class regimes in France: there is a changing flux, but persisting barriers to career mobility. Therefore, it seems not only exaggerated, but also misleading to speculate on a fundamental change in career dynamics, as most variants of modernization theory tend to do.

Time-series modeling of epidemics in complex populations: Detecting changes in incidence volatility over time.

Trends in infectious disease incidence provide important information about epidemic dynamics and prospects for control. Higher-frequency variation around incidence trends can shed light on the processes driving epidemics in complex populations, as transmission heterogeneity, shifting landscapes of susceptibility, and fluctuations in reporting can impact the volatility of observed case counts. However, measures of temporal volatility in incidence, and how volatility changes over time, are often overlooked in population-level analyses of incidence data, which typically focus on moving averages. Here we present a statistical framework to quantify temporal changes in incidence dispersion and to detect rapid shifts in the dispersion parameter, which may signal new epidemic phases. We apply the method to COVID-19 incidence data in 144 United States (US) counties from January 1st, 2020 to March 23rd, 2023. Theory predicts that dispersion should be inversely proportional to incidence, however our method reveals pronounced temporal trends in dispersion that are not explained by incidence alone, but which are replicated across counties. In particular, dispersion increased around the major surge in cases in 2022, and highly overdispersed patterns became more frequent later in the time series. These increases potentially indicate transmission heterogeneity, changes in the susceptibility landscape, or that there were changes in reporting. Shifts in dispersion can also indicate shifts in epidemic phase, so our method provides a way for public health officials to anticipate and manage changes in epidemic regime and the drivers of transmission.

The relation of telework, hybrid work, and in-person work to mental health: A study of Brazilian civil servants

There is evidence that civil servants experience job-related distress, often due to factors such as bureaucratic overload or shifts from permanent to temporary contracts. As of 2019, the Brazilian public administration introduced new work regimes, including telework. As a result, new occupational health challenges have emerged, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic, which has been a significant catalyst for these changes in work regimes. This quantitative cross-sectional survey compared levels of burnout, depression, anxiety, and work engagement among Brazilian civil servants across three work regimes: telework, hybrid work, and in-person work. A sample of 1,612 civil servants completed an online questionnaire anonymously. We used the 12-item version of the Burnout Assessment Tool, the PHQ-4, and the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale to assess mental health. Of the respondents, 37% were in telework, 51% in in-person work, and 12% experienced hybrid work. Results showed that levels of burnout, depression, and anxiety were highly similar across all three work regimes. Work engagement was slightly higher in the in-person group than in the hybrid group. Overall, the mental health of Brazilian civil servants appears largely unrelated to their work regime. Brazilian civil servants may have effectively adapted to the recent changes in their working conditions.

Classical and modern approaches to the study of organic matter of sod-podzolic soils in the Middle Pre-Urals (analytical review)

Experimental data of scientists of Perm Agricultural Research Institute – branch of PFRC UB RAS obtained for 2000–2024 are presented, scientific literature for 1990–2024 of Russian and foreign specialists on the study of soil organic matter (SOM) is summarized and analyzed. Multidirectional tendencies of organic carbon change in soil compared to the initial level at change of land use regime were revealed: decrease at intensive tillage and absence of fertilizers, preservation and increase – at input of large amount of organic matter with biomass of cultivated crops in crop rotation and organic fertilizers. The influence of land use practices on the content of different fractions of transformed organic matter is shown. It has been established that in soil-climatic conditions of the Middle Urals the losses of organic carbon in the process of mineralization during the vegetation period can potentially make from 2.37 to 3.21 % of its total content. High carbon sequestering potential of sod-podzolic heavy loamy soil was determined. Carbon sequestration by crops of crop rotation and perennial grasses was assessed. It was revealed that in the process of photosynthesis eastern galega converts from atmosphere to plant biomass more than 30 t/ha of CO2 or 8.4 t C/ha per year, safflower leuzea – 24.3–41.3 t/ha of CO2 (6.8–11.5 t/ha). Due to the large amount and favourable biochemical composition of crop-root residues of perennial fodder crops, accumulation and deposition of organic carbon in the soil is observed. The study of soil microbiome of sod-podzolic heavy loamy soils of the Middle Urals revealed 17 phylums consisting of Archaea (1 phylum) and Bacteria (16 phylums) domains. Differences in the composition of soil microorganisms in soils of different types of land use were found. Prospects for further study of SOM are outlined in connection with the problem of global climate change, as well as the development of instrumental high-precision methods of analysis.

Identifying Risk Regimes in a Sectoral Stock Index Through a Multivariate Hidden Markov Framework

This study explores the presence of hidden market regimes in a sector-specific stock index within the Thai equity market. The behavior of such indices often deviates from broader macroeconomic trends, making it difficult for conventional models to detect regime changes. To overcome this limitation, the study employs a multivariate Gaussian mixture hidden Markov model, which enables the identification of unobservable states based on daily and intraday return patterns. These patterns include open-to-close, open-to-high, and low-to-open returns. The model is estimated using various specifications, and the best-performing structure is chosen based on the Akaike Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion. The final model reveals three statistically distinct regimes that correspond to bullish, sideways, and bearish conditions. Statistical tests, particularly the Kruskal–Wallis method, confirm that return distributions, trading volume, and open interest differ significantly across these regimes. Additionally, the analysis incorporates risk measures, including expected shortfall, maximum drawdown, and the coefficient of variation. The results indicate that the bearish regime carries the highest risk, whereas the bullish regime is relatively stable. These findings offer practical insights for regime-aware portfolio management in sectoral equity markets.

Wildfire and forest treatments mitigate—but cannot forestall—climate-driven changes in streamflow regimes in a western US mountain landscape

Wildfire and forest treatments mitigate—but cannot forestall—climate-driven changes in streamflow regimes in a western US mountain landscape

Spectral-based indices for assessing flow regime alterations in dammed rivers: a global perspective

ABSTRACT Existing metrics have not fully captured intra-annual variability and phase shifts in flow regimes, particularly in regulated river systems. Furthermore, traditional approaches require daily datasets, limiting their applicability in data-scarce regions. To bridge this gap, this study develops two novel spectral-based indicators, offering a more refined and accessible approach to evaluating dam-induced flow regime changes. This study applied wavelet spectral analysis to propose two novel spectral-based indicators for quantifying the impacts of dam construction as the largest anthropogenic alteration on river flow regimes, including intra-annual variability and timing shifts. The indices were tested to quantify the effect of dams in 15 global rivers located in different geographical areas. The results showed that the proposed index based on equivalent noise bandwidth eliminated some shortcomings of the existing indices, consistently outperforming them in capturing intra-annual variability in dammed rivers. Wavelet coherence was proved suitable for capturing the temporal variability and phase shift.

Climate‐driven alterations of lake thermal regimes

Abstract Temperate lakes are undergoing climate‐driven alterations in their thermal regimes, changing their ecology. Previous efforts to understand temperature changes have overlooked multi‐dimensional temperature dynamics, missing complex shifts at high spatiotemporal resolutions across landscapes. Here, we use simulated daily water temperature profiles from > 11,000 temperate lakes throughout the Midwestern United States to (1) quantify multivariate, landscape‐scale patterns in contemporary thermal regimes and (2) contextualize forecasted shifts and identify novel regimes that may emerge with climatic change. Hierarchical clustering and principal component analyses identified six lake clusters with distinct thermal regimes driven by differences in annual warming rates and spring–summer dynamics, with secondary influences from extreme heat events and seasonal variability. Annual temperature variations were influenced by lake‐specific physical characteristics, emphasizing distinct thermal profiles and seasonal variability patterns. Projected climate‐driven alterations in thermal regimes suggest a homogenization toward warmer and more variable conditions, with the majority of lakes characterized by higher temperatures and increased variability. Few lakes (n = 310), particularly in the southern and southeastern Midwest, may experience novel, non‐analog conditions by the late 21st century, while others will undergo shifts between clusters but remain within analogous regime frameworks. Projected changes in lake thermal regimes highlight concerns about ecological impacts on aquatic species and habitats, especially as extreme and variable growing season temperatures intensify and periods of stratification become prolonged. Furthermore, we identify thermal regimes that are likely to dominate the region by the late 21st century while identifying those likely to be lost. The ecological consequences of such changes remain unknown.

Legal Protection for Users of Crypto Assets in Futures Exchange Transactions

This study aims to understand the form and effectiveness of legal protection for consumers of crypto assets before and after the enactment of Law Number 4 of 2023 concerning the Development and Strengthening of the Financial Sector (PPSK Law) and Financial Services Authority Regulations (POJK) Number 27 of 2024 and POJK Number 3 of 2024. The method used is normative legal research with a legislative approach and qualitative descriptive analysis techniques. This approach was chosen to explore the substance of legal norms and assess the practical implications of regulatory changes on the rights of consumers who use crypto assets. The novelty of this research lies in its critical analysis of the changes in the supervisory regime from the perspective of legal protection for digital asset consumers, which has not been comprehensively discussed before. This research is relevant amid the dynamic development of the rapidly evolving and complex digital financial sector, particularly following the enactment of the PPSK Law and the OJK's derivative regulations. The results of the study indicate that prior to the implementation of the latest regulations, legal protection for consumers of crypto assets was minimal and sectoral in nature, with a focus on commodity aspects by BAPPEBTI. This resulted in weak protection against risks such as value fluctuations, fraud, and threats to digital transaction security. However, after being transferred to the OJK, the protection approach became more integrated through the regulation of business licenses, clearing systems, digital asset storage governance, and more adequate dispute resolution mechanisms. In conclusion, the transfer of regulatory authority to the OJK significantly strengthens legal protection for cryptocurrency consumers in Indonesia. The new regulations enhance legal certainty and increase user confidence, while also fostering the development of a more transparent, accountable, and consumer-oriented digital asset ecosystem.

Applications of Hidden Markov Models in Detecting Regime Changes in Bitcoin Markets

This study explores the identification and assessment of regime shifts in Bitcoin markets through the application of advanced statistical models, namely HMMs, MSMs, and Threshold Models. The analysis utilizes key financial indicators including market capitalization, volatility, trading volume, and historical Bitcoin price data, along with statistical measures such as mean, minimum, and maximum values to enhance the detection of market patterns. Distinctions are made between bullish (sustained price increases exceeding 20%), bearish (sustained price declines exceeding 20%), and neutral (periods of low volatility and sideways movement) market regimes. HMMs provide predictive insights into market transitions, MSMs are employed to capture structural regime changes, and the Threshold Model identifies significant price behaviors. The findings indicate that HMMs outperform the other models in forecasting regime shifts, particularly in detecting transitions among bullish, bearish, and neutral phases information crucial for strategic trading decisions. Unlike traditional models, HMMs effectively accommodate the non-stationary characteristics of Cryptocurrency markets by incorporating variables such as market sentiment, regulatory developments, technological advancements, and macroeconomic conditions. The study presents a comprehensive HMM-based framework for regime detection and market forecasting that supports traders in optimizing entry, exit, and holding strategies to maximize profits while managing risk. Furthermore, the Viterbi algorithm is employed to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of HMM-based forecasts, confirming the robustness of HMMs in modeling and predicting complex market regimes.

Containment vs. confrontation: Trump 2.0 and a nuclear Iran

ABSTRACT While Iran is thought of as a nuclear threshold state, Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign and threats of military intervention are more likely to escalate tensions than compel compliance. While military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities remains a possibility, such an attack could accelerate rather than curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Instead, a balanced diplomatic approach—one that addresses Iran’s security concerns—may be more effective than coercion alone in preventing nuclear proliferation and maintaining regional stability. Consequently, four scenarios are possible under Trump 2.0: regime change, prolonged stalemate, a new nuclear agreement, or military conflict.

Political construction of risk perception and preventive behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Korea.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the complex interactions between politics and public health, as political ideologies shape risk perception and adherence to safety measures worldwide. In South Korea, the shift from a progressive to a conservative government administration during the pandemic presents a unique opportunity to examine how risk perception and compliance with preventive measures vary under different political regimes. We used secondary data from a representative South Korean polling company. Biweekly repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted 80 times over three years (February 2020-April 2023), capturing citizens' perceptions during the regime change. We analysed time-series trends in risk perception and preventive intentions. We conducted cross-sectional analyses on surveys collected under the two administrations to explore how political affiliation influenced risk perception and behaviour. These analyses provide insights into the interaction between political alignment and individuals' risk perceptions and preventive actions. Korean citizens who shared the same political views as the central government tended to trust the government's handling of the pandemic more. As a result, they perceived less risk and engaged in fewer preventive behaviours. Rather than changes in specific quarantine policy, Korea's case represents intergroup polarisation driven by political affiliation. We revealed compelling evidence of political influence on risk perception and behaviour, offering valuable insights for addressing politicised issues in future pandemics. The findings of this study suggest that COVID-19 has become a political issue not only between two hostile political parties but also among individuals with different political preferences. Therefore, when striving for collaborative problem-solving, caution must be exercised against politicising the issues as witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. These politicised subjects may result in criticising the other party through prejudicial criticism, as well as refraining from making efforts to find common values.

Co-opt and repress: Dynamics of youth-government relations in post-2018 Ethiopia

Three years of youth protests (2015–2018) forced the former ruling party of Ethiopia, the Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) to introduce political reforms which amounted to regime change. This was accompanied by the transformation of the EPRDF to the Prosperity Party (PP), exacerbating ethnic polarisation, intensification of violent conflicts, fragmentation of the leadership, and civil war(s). This article investigates how the youth protest movements that were credited for Ethiopia's political transition were subsequently fragmented and repressed by the post-transition regime. Drawing on theories of social movements, repression, and co-optation, the paper argues that the ruling party deployed a twin strategy of material and symbolic co-optation alongside repression to neutralise the very youth groups that enabled its rise to power. By closely investigating the cases of the Qeerroo in Oromia and the Fano in Amhara, the study reveals variations in the government's use of repression and co-optation in the two regions, illustrating that regime strategies are not uniform or monolithic, but adaptive and tailored to contexts. Based on qualitative data from 16 semi-structured interviews, the article illuminates the vulnerability of decentralised protest movements in post-authoritarian transitions. The Ethiopian case contributes to broader debates on authoritarian resilience, youth agency, and the fragmentation of popular movements in the aftermath of regime change.

Danube River: Hydrological Features and Risk Assessment with a Focus on Navigation and Monitoring Frameworks

Danube River represents a critical axis of ecological and economic importance for the countries along its course. From this perspective, this paper aims to assess the most significant characteristics of the river and of its main tributaries, as well as its impact on the environmental sustainability and socio-economic development. Navigation and the economic contribution of the Danube River are the key issues of this work, emphasizing its importance as an international transport artery that facilitates trade and tourism, and develops the energy industry through hydropower plants. The study includes an analysis of the volume of goods transported from 2019 to 2023, as well as an analysis of the goods traffic in the busiest port on the Danube. Furthermore, climate change affects the hydrological regime of the Danube, as well as the ecosystems, economy, and energy security of the riparian countries. Main impacts include changes in the hydrological regime, increased frequency of droughts and floods, reduced water quality, deterioration of biodiversity, and disruption of the economic activities dependent on the river, such as navigation, agriculture, and hydropower production. Thus, hydrological risks and challenges are investigated, focusing on the extreme events of the last two decades and the awareness of their repercussions. In this context, the national and international institutions responsible for monitoring and managing the Danube are presented, and their role in promoting a sustainable river policy is explored. Methods and technologies are shown to be essential tools for monitoring and prediction studies. The Danube includes an extensive network of hydrometric stations that help to prevent and manage the most significant risks. Finally, a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis of the development of the hydrological studies was conducted, highlighting the potential of the river.

Equal before luck? Well-being consequences of personal deprivation and transition.

Equal before luck? Well-being consequences of personal deprivation and transition.

Ice Front and Mélange Dynamics at Kangerlussuaq Glacier, Eastern Greenland, Since 1981, and Future Stability

Abstract Calving is a critical factor in the dynamics of marine‐terminating glaciers, yet its long‐term behavior remains poorly understood. Existing models calibrate calving parameters with decadal observational periods and assume they remain constant, effectively overlooking shifts in external drivers like ice mélange. We investigate calving evolution from 1981 to 2021 using a centennial reconstruction of Kangerlussuaq Glacier and identify significant calving regime changes. Using the von Mises calving parameterization, we find that a change in the maximum tensile stress threshold precedes changes in ice mélange. This suggests that, while mélange may have a strong impact on calving rates on seasonal timescales, this effect does not persist over multi‐decadal timescales. Long‐term projections that account for variations in calving parameterization indicate that Kangerlussuaq Glacier will continue to retreat in most scenarios, with ice mass losses ranging from 220 to 1,090 Gt, equivalent to 0.61–3.01 mm of global sea level rise.

Thalweg migration under the collaborative changes in the hydro-sediment regime and erosion base level in the Xiaobeiganliu reach of the Middle Yellow River

Thalweg migration under the collaborative changes in the hydro-sediment regime and erosion base level in the Xiaobeiganliu reach of the Middle Yellow River

Changes in Feeding Regimes During the Climacteric Period of Women

Together with the constant increase in the life expectancy and standard of living of people, millions of children are growing up, and the generation of educated women is trying to fully understand the processes that take place in their organism. Women are realizing all the information about these physiological processes and how this affects their life and health. Menopause is the turning period of the climacteric period, or it happens when a certain period, a specific stage in a woman's life, the function of the ovaries gradually disappears. The climacteric period is a physiological period in a woman's life, but her pathological course is also possible, then it is called climacteric syndrome (CS). CS is one of the very common concepts among modern women. Nutrition it is a normal physiological state at any age, and as such is one of the factors of maintaining efficiency. Being balanced with age, it has been proven to have a significant impact on the development of the aging processes of the body and the nature of the changes that occur in its various systems.

Globalization Democracy and the Arab Spring in Libya

This study explores the impact of globalization on democracy and democratization in post-Arab Spring Libya. While the 2011 uprising was fueled by aspirations for political freedom, justice, and inclusive governance, it ultimately resulted in state collapse, militia dominance, and prolonged instability. Using qualitative content analysis based on secondary data—including academic literature, policy documents, and media reports—the study critically investigates how global forces shaped both the revolutionary moment and the trajectory of Libya’s failed democratic transition. Anchored in Structural Realism and Democratic Transition Theory, the paper argues that Libya’s democratization crisis reflects both internal institutional fragility and external geopolitical contradictions. Specifically, it demonstrates how international interventions promoted regime change without ensuring the foundational support necessary for democratic consolidation. The findings reveal that fragmented political authority, weak institutions, and the strategic interests of global and regional actors obstructed the development of an inclusive political order. The study contributes to the scholarship on post-conflict democratization by emphasizing the limits of externally driven transitions in fragile states. It recommends an institutionally grounded, context-sensitive approach to democratization that prioritizes local ownership and long-term governance development. Libya’s experience offers a critical case for understanding the paradoxes of globalization and the contested outcomes of democracy promotion in the Global South.

Our Knowledge of the Taliban as Guide for US Policy

Many explanations have been offered for why after two decades of insurgency the US military mission in Afghanistan failed. Some of our judgments about what went wrong can be useful in helping us shape future US policy toward a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Even more valuable, we have the benefit of several years of observing the Taliban exercising the responsibilities of governing to guide us in engaging the regime and furthering our security and strategic objectives with Afghanistan and its region. This article identifies seven broad conclusions about the Taliban that should be instructive: Among these are the Taliban’s resistance to transactional diplomacy, that any changes in Taliban policy are likely to come from pressures within rather than from outside, that the regime has nevertheless greater exposure to the outside world, and that the Taliban believe that regional and international players are unlikely to push for regime change. The article argues a course correction that breaks new ground in US-Afghan relations by shaking off much of the established thinking about engaging the Taliban. It prescribes a reset of the US diplomatic approach to the Kabul regime involving a normalization of relations with the Taliban as necessary to realize American purposes.