Understanding long-term variability in storminess is essential for constraining future climate patterns in the eastern North Atlantic, a region shaped by complex ocean–atmosphere interactions. Here, we reconstruct storm, fire, and hydroclimate variability from grain size, inorganic geochemistry, plant macrofossil and molecular organic records since mid-Holocene at Glenties Bog, a coastal blanket bog in western Ireland. Comparing our results with existing palaeostorminess records, we provide new insights into a dynamic interplay between wind strength, fire incidence, and hydrological conditions throughout the Holocene. Long-term temperature evolution influenced the background wind and hydroclimatic state, while volcanic activity became a key forcing mechanism during parts of the late Holocene. The warm mid-Holocene coincided with lower wind strength and enhanced fire activity, while no assoication between storm periods and volcanic activity was inferred, indicating that the climate state at the time of the volcanic forcing affects the climatic response. These results indicate that future warming may lead to profound changes in wind strength, hydroclimate, and fire regimes. Notably, climate-change-induced lowering of peatland water tables may increase the susceptibility of blanket bogs to intense and deep peatland fires. This study provides new insight into Holocene wind and hydroclimate dynamics in the eastern North Atlantic, improving understanding of the mechanisms driving North Atlantic climate variability across contrasting climate states. • Multiproxy reconstruction of Holocene climate in the eastern North Atlantic • Holocene temperature trends influenced background wind and hydroclimate • Mid-Holocene warmth associated with dry conditions, fires, and low wind strengths • Late Holocene marked by wetter conditions and enhanced storminess • Volcanic activity associated with enhanced storminess during parts of the late Holocene

Communicable disease control in Afghanistan has deteriorated amid growing fragility, health system disruption and declining international aid since the 2021 regime change. Outbreaks of measles, pertussis, pneumonia, cholera, malaria, dengue, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, tuberculosis and polio continue to plague the population in Afghanistan. This study addresses a critical evidence gap by systematically ranking research priorities for communicable diseases in Afghanistan. This study applied the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) methodology, which is a widely used approach for systematic, transparent and collaborative research priority setting. It leverages expert consultation to generate, score and rank research questions. This study identified and invited 303 Afghanistan-health researchers, based globally, to complete the survey which consisted of 33 research questions related to communicable diseases that were submitted by 15 researchers. This CHNRI exercise included 44 respondents, 63.6% of whom were of Afghan origin. The top 10 highest-ranked questions focused on identifying barriers to low measles and polio vaccination coverage, assessing disease burden by region and strategies to reduce the incidence of tuberculosis. Respondents of Afghan origin ranked antibiotic resistance and gender-related disparities in tuberculosis as the highest-priority questions. The majority of priority questions were description questions. Researchers, governments, donors, policy makers and programme implementers can use these findings as a starting point to strategically align research agendas, guide resource allocation, and prioritise evidence-based interventions for life-saving communicable disease prevention and control in Afghanistan.

Abstract This article addresses two research questions: (1) What are recent trends in nonstate actor (NSA) civilian mass killings by country locations and perpetrator groups? and (2) What are risk factors for NSA civilian mass killings based on economic choice theory and large-sample empirical inquiry? We summarize recent data on mass killings perpetrated by various NSAs including rebel groups; political, territorial, and identity militias; and terrorist organizations. Following a review of the empirical NSA mass killing literature, we develop an economic choice model of a NSA’s resource allocations to direct (military) fighting and to violence against civilians when in contestation with a government over political, territorial, and/or ideological (identity) control. Our literature review and theoretical model guide our empirical inquiry into risk factors for NSA mass killings for a sample of 199 countries from 1989 to 2023. We find that low economic development, anocracy, natural resource dependency; high young male unemployment; ethnic division; population; civil and nonstate wars; regime change; and government mass killings each significantly elevate NSA mass killing risk. We conclude with suggestions on how NSA mass killings might be prevented or at least made less severe.

Changing hydrothermal regime leads to pronounced changes in growth and ranges of Siberian tree species that are mostly negative at the southern part of the trees’ habitat. Here we analyzed the response of Larix sibirica and Populus laurifolia to moisture changes in unique refugia that border the Mongolian desert in Southern Siberia. The great age of old-growth larch trees (>500 years) suggests that the refugia have existed throughout the Holocene. We aimed to (1) analyze larch and poplar growth and range response to the changing temperature and moisture regime, (2) explore the potential migration of trees into the desert, and (3) analyze Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) dynamics within the refugia and adjacent desert. We used on-ground surveys, remote sensing data, and dendroecological analysis. We found that since the warming onset (c. 1980), larch and poplar trees have increased their growth and population within and beyond the refugia (+300% for poplar and +45% for larch). Both species’ growth has been controlled by atmospheric and soil droughts (measured by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI)) and by microtopography-dependent moistening. Summer winds impair trees’ growth via increased evapotranspiration. Both species were migrating to the southern sandy dunes. Although poplar is less drought-resistant than larch, it was shifting ahead of larch (5.6 m/year vs. 0.8 m/year). The mean and maximum treeline shifts were 260 and 450 m for poplar and 35 m and 70 m for larch. P. laurifolia occupied new climate-caused niches ahead of drought-resistant L. sibirica due to its higher prolificacy. We found a “desert greening” phenomenon, i.e., a significantly increasing GPP trend (R2 = 0.31) in both refugia and sandy dunes. The GPP increase correlated with tree growth increase (r2 = 0.36–0.39). The larch and poplar migration to the desert contradicts the predicted shrinkage of the tree ranges within their southern boundary. However, the projected increase in the moisture deficit by 2080–2100 may impair this phenomenon. Nevertheless, current changes in the hydrology regime are favorable for larch and poplar growth and expansion into the adjacent Mongolian desert.

Over the past decade, road and civil construction activities in Ukraine have intensified significantly, with a considerable number of projects being implemented in areas characterized by unfavorable engineering and geological conditions. Construction is increasingly carried out on weak and collapsible soils, including loess deposits, organic-mineral soils, andtechnogenically altered formations that exhibit reduced strength and instability under changes in moisture regime, salt composition, and seasonal effects. Loess soils, which occupy a dominant position among Quaternary deposits in Ukraine, are distinguished by high porosity and a pronounced loss of structural strength when wetted, leading to sudden collapsible deformations and uneven settlement of foundations.The paper analyzes the engineering characteristics of collapsible loess soils, the mechanisms of deformation development under loading and wetting, and the main indicators used to assess collapsibility, including relative collapsibility, critical collapsible pressure, and threshold moisture content. A systematic review of modern methods for improving the properties of weak soil foundations is presented, covering structural, physical-mechanical, and physico-chemical approaches.Special attention is paid to injection-based soil stabilization technologies, such as jet grouting, deep soil mixing, chemical grouting, electrochemical stabilization, and innovative bio-cementation methods. These techniques allow the formation of artificial structural bonds between soil particles, leading to increased bearing capacity, reduced compressibility, and improved water resistance without large-scale soil excavation. The analysis demonstrates that injection stabilization methods are among the most effective and versatile solutions for mitigating collapsibility and ensuring the long-term reliability and durability of foundations in road and civil engineering projects.

Reducing energy use for the electrode drying process, which accounts for more than 38% of the total energy use in battery manufacturing, is crucial for a sustainable battery industry. However, systematic optimization of the drying process has been limited because the governing transport mechanisms evolve as solvent is removed, and conventional approaches lack an integrated treatment of these distinct stages. This study presents a novel state-dependent, dual-physics switching approach for multistage electrode-drying optimization to address the limitations of conventional methods that treat stages in isolation despite evolving transport mechanisms. At the electrode scale, the formulation employs criterion-based transient switching between models, ensuring consistent treatment of regime changes throughout the process. We develop a multiscale simulation that couples the transient electrode-scale analysis with a steady dryer process model. Using this coupled framework, we perform Bayesian optimization to identify multizone set-points that minimize energy use while satisfying the outlet moisture-content specification. Under identical throughput, the proposed method reduced total energy use by 56.4% without compromising product quality. This integrated multiscale framework can be adapted to other electrode products by incorporating their material properties, enabling material-specific efficiency improvements. • Novel dual-physics model-switching approach proposed for electrode drying. • Integrated micro–macro simulation of moisture transport in multichamber ovens. • Optimized drying profiles reduced energy consumption by 56.4%. • Framework adaptable for material-specific electrode manufacturing strategies. • Proposed approach supports sustainable, energy-efficient battery production practices.

Land-based pollution is a major driver of coral reef degradation, yet the pathways linking terrestrial activities to marine exposure and ecological response remain difficult to resolve. Using Curaçao as a case study, we developed and tested 78 land-based pressure indices (LBPIs) that represent alternative spatial assumptions about pollutant sources, contributing catchments, and coastal dispersion. These indices were evaluated both as proxies for nutrient enrichment, using water-quality indicators, and as integrative measures of land-based pressure, using benthic condition. The framework spans simple land-use metrics (e.g., built-up area) to process-based nutrient export and hydrodynamic connectivity models, allowing systematic evaluation of land-based pollution pathways and their ecological consequences. We assessed how these indices explain spatial variation in reef pollution signatures (macroalgal δ15N, a tracer of wastewater-derived nitrogen) and ecological condition. Coral cover was evaluated across two survey years (1982 and 2015), while δ15N and benthic community composition were assessed for 2015. Results show that LBPIs capture most of the spatial variation in δ15N (R2=0.78), demonstrating their effectiveness in representing land-derived nutrient exposure. By contrast, coral cover was more weakly explained by LBPIs alone (R2=0.23), but model fits improved markedly when environmental variables such as wave exposure and geomorphology were included. Proxy performance also shifted over time: localized dispersion and land-use intensity metrics performed best in 1982, while broader source metrics combined with model-based connectivity were strongest in 2015, suggesting changes in pollution regimes or reef sensitivity. These findings demonstrate how alternative representations of land-based pollution pathways influence predictions of ecological exposure and response. The approach advances process-based modeling of pollutant transport across the land-sea continuum, providing transferable methods for diagnosing and managing land-derived pressures on coral reef ecosystems.

Cellular and morphological plasticity of Holothuria grisea in response to acute osmotic stress and evidence for crystal cell physiological function.

Metformin, a widely prescribed antidiabetic drug, is frequently detected in aquatic environments due to its limited removal during wastewater treatment. Yet its environmental behaviour and ecological effect on microbial communities at the biogeochemically active sediment-water interface remains poorly understood. We examined metformin degradation and its effect on prokaryotic communities under diverse controlled oxygenation conditions in laboratory microcosms mimicking the sediment-water interface. In autoclaved microcosms, metformin showed slow dissipation without significant formation of transformation products, irrespective of oxygenation conditions. In contrast, biotic microcosms showed metformin biodegradation within 13 days following a lag phase of up to 28 days. Degradation was faster under anoxic conditions. Guanylurea was the sole transformation product detected, suggesting enzymatic hydrolysis and potential use of dimethylamine and guanylurea as carbon and nitrogen sources for microbial growth. Prokaryotic community composition was significantly affected by oxygenation conditions and repeated metformin contamination. Metformin exposure and changes in oxygenation regime had predominantly additive effects. Nevertheless, non-additive effects on procaryotic community composition emerged over time, particularly after repeated metformin exposure. Twenty-one bacterial taxonomic biomarkers of metformin exposure were tentatively identified, including methylotrophic taxa potentially associated with the utilisation of metformin and its metabolites. Microbial activity was essential for metformin dissipation at the sediment-water interface, and oxygenation regime modulated the effect of metformin and its transformation on prokaryotic communities. Our study shows the importance of oxygenation conditions and microbial community responses in assessing the behaviour and associated risks of pharmaceuticals in dynamic aquatic environments such as the sediment-water interface.

ABSTRACT The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) has faced difficult strategic conditions since democratisation in 1994. These included the end of the Cold War and apartheid, ambiguity pertaining to external threats, democratic regime change, the integration of former non-statutory forces, a declining defence budget, and the acquisition of new prime mission equipment. In an attempt to cope with these conditions, the SANDF adopted the mission-based approach as a threat-independent “coping mechanism” for military strategy. The aim of this paper is to discuss the SANDF’s selection and use of this approach. This is done to give more clarity to strategy gaps and why the SANDF finds it difficult to achieve a balance amongst strategic variables. It is argued that in the absence of clear strategic guidance to make difficult trade-offs, the finalisation of military strategy has become a dragged-out process to avoid decisions that could threaten the retention of legacy and core military capabilities.

Increasingly frequent and intense wildfires threaten to push ecosystems beyond their ecological thresholds. Fire-adapted forests can be vulnerable to ecosystem conversion under shortening fire-return intervals. To evaluate the impacts of fire regime change, we contrasted Eucalyptus forests that retained canopy cover under tolerable regimes (reference forests) with alternative states of markedly reduced canopy. These alternative states established following short-interval wildfires and have persisted through subsequent fires. Alternative states were dominated by more uniform distributions of small trees (< 20 cm diameter) than reference states, with 97% fewer large trees (> 20 cm diameter). These changes in structure translated into declines in several key ecosystem functions. The loss of large, hollow-forming trees and limited Eucalyptus regeneration indicate long-term constraints on habitat availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Coarse woody debris mass was 38% lower in alternative states, indicating decreased resources for detritivores, fungi, and ground-dwelling mammals. Aboveground carbon stocks were reduced by 59%, with a much higher proportion (98%) stored in small trees than reference states (20%). Lower fire tolerance of small trees suggests a greater vulnerability of carbon stocks to subsequent fires in alternative states compared to reference states. These findings highlight the long-term ecological consequences of altered fire regimes. In addition, emphasising the management and restoration of forest structural integrity is essential to maintain ecosystem functions in fire-prone landscapes that are increasingly vulnerable under changing climates.

Over the past few decades, the Middle East has been plagued by a series of conflicts linked to terrorism, which have disrupted the stability of several countries in the region. Since the war on terrorism was declared, terrorism has influenced politics and policy in the Middle East. Furthermore, terrorism has also hindered economic prosperity, development, and social welfare in countries caught up in conflict. This article aims to examine terrorism and its impact on the political and policy spheres in the Middle East, specifically in the selected countries: Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. This article uses a case study method to examine this topic in detail for each country. This article utilizes several global indices, including the Global Terrorism Index 2017–2024, the Global Peace Index, the Conflict Index, the Fragile States Index, and the Failed States Index. The findings indicate that regime change, clashes over ethnic and religious differences, and regional power politics are the underlying causes of the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Based on the findings of this study, it can be concluded that the context and conditions of Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan as post-conflict states remain fragile and are influenced by terrorism, the impact of the war on terror, and regional competition, which have serious long-term implications for each country. This article contributes to the development of the Regional Security Complex Theory by Buzan and Waver (2003) regarding the War on Terrorism, which relates to the Middle East security dilemma and the balance of power.

&lt;p&gt;This research analyzed Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows in fifty emerging market economies to identify distinct investment regimes through advanced statistical modeling. The study employed Markov Switching Models (MSM), threshold regression analysis, and Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) frameworks, analyzing quarterly data from 2010 to 2023 sourced from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the World Bank, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) databases. Three distinct FDI regimes were identified: stable periods (2.84% of GDP), volatile periods (1.56% of GDP), and growth phases (3.92% of GDP). Critical economic thresholds were discovered at 2.45% GDP growth and 3.75% interest rates, where investment behavior fundamentally changes. The Dynamic Conditional Correlation analysis revealed time-varying relationships between FDI and macroeconomic variables, with correlations ranging from 0.225 to 0.685 for GDP growth and from 0.285 to 0.745 for political stability. Statistical validation through Phillips–Perron, Hansen, and Brock–Dechert–Scheinkman (BDS) tests confirmed the presence of non-linear dependencies and structural breaks in FDI patterns. The results challenge one-size-fits-all policy approaches, suggesting tailored strategies based on regime identification for managing FDI flows in emerging markets under different economic conditions.&lt;/p&gt;

Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns in Vietnam due to climate change are likely to have significant impacts on flow regimes in river basins as well as on national water resources. This study investigated the changes in hydrological regime at 11 freshwater hydrological monitoring stations with good observation data (spanning 35 years, from 1987 to 2022) distributed across Vietnam. The study applied the Mann-Kendall statistical test and calculated Sen’s slope for three hydrological indices (annual mean flow, annual maximum flow and annual minimum flow) at selected monitoring stations. The assessment highlighted a dominant decreasing trend throughout the period under study, with data from four monitoring stations (distributed in different river systems) showing a decline in all three indicators. Two basins showed an increasing trend in all three assessed indicators, but most of these trends were not statistically significant. This result demonstrates the complex changes in the hydrological regime of Vietnam's river basins. Some important factors that may influence these trends are changes in land use, the expansion of dams and reservoirs and rapid urbanization (to support the national economic development since 2000s), which should be further investigated in future research.

Prices and quantities in agricultural commodity and food product markets are subject to constant changes due to evolving supply and demand conditions. Big and sudden shifts in supply or demand may lead to price movements that bring negative consequences for food producers or consumers. Factors causing such movements can be of different natures, but substantial changes in the world energy price levels are supposed to be one of the most important. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of global energy price shocks on the evolution of food commodities and food consumer prices. Using the World Bank data on the respective price indices, we looked for shocks in these data series by utilizing statistical tools. Having identified three global energy price shocks in the period 2000–2024 induced by the financial crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, their influence on the world agricultural commodity prices and food consumer prices was assessed. It was found that the series of energy, food commodity, and food consumer price indices were related in the long term. Also, the occurrence of global energy price shocks to a visible extent translated into global food commodity and food consumer price shocks. Applying various statistical and econometric techniques, including Chow tests and MS-VAR modelling, enables the identification of which breaking points led to regime changes between the analysed variables. The most sensitive to the structural breaking points appeared to be the relation between energy and consumer food prices. This discovery can be considered our major contribution.

ABSTRACT This study explores the return migration experiences of Syrian refugee women moving from Turkey back to Syria, with particular attention to the factors shaping their return decisions, the support mechanisms provided during the process, and their post-return reintegration and future aspirations. Employing a phenomenological research design, qualitative data were collected through in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 17 women aged 18–60. Findings suggest that return decisions are influenced by political and administrative conditions in both Turkey and Syria, access to basic services, and host-state policies. Despite the regime change in Syria, persistent challenges such as political instability, security risks, economic hardship, social fragmentation, and restrictive gender norms remain. These circumstances have led to feelings of regret among many returnees and have increased their tendency to re-migrate. The study underscores that return migration can only constitute a permanent and sustainable solution if it is voluntary, adequately supported, and accompanied by meaningful improvements in the country of origin.

This article examines and analyzes the typology of global geoclimatic shifts, classifying the types of environmental and climatic changes that change the face of the planet. The authors identified 4 types of geoclimatic shifts, such as gradual climatic trends, extreme changes in weather conditions, turning points in the Earth’s system, and changes in biosphere and ecosystem regimes. The authors also consider global cognitive shifts that classify changes in human behavior, values, and collective psychology in response to the global crisis. The types identified by the authors are as follows: climate anxiety, environmental grief and the psychology of crisis, digital transformation and cognitive overload, changes in values, worldview, and moral principles. For each category in the article, the authors identified the key driving factors, their characteristics and the observed consequences for environmental stability, human health, food and water security, as well as the sustainability of infrastructure. The authors draw on modern scientific literature in the fields of the environment, behavioral sciences, cognitive sociology, and moral psychology. A key analytical contribution is the study of the effects of the interaction between geoclimatic and cognitive shifts. In the article, the authors analyzed how climatic stress factors — extreme heat, lack of resources, population displacement, and exposure to natural disasters — can increase psychological stress, change moral priorities, and transform institutional trust, while cognitive models such as increased risk, cascades of misinformation, and failures of collective action, in turn, can influence the results of mitigation and adaptation. In conclusion, the authors consider how these shifts interact with each other (for example, how climatic stressors cause psychological reactions or social changes), and also consider how such a typology can help in research, policy development, and political sustainability planning.

The UN Security Council (UNSC) has been under an increasing international spotlight with the wars in Syria and Ukraine and the vetoes of some of its five permanent members (P5) in these wars. Yet, the P5 behave differently in and towards the UNSC, and this difference is not (only) explainable by material factors but also, as constructivist IR theory would argue, by the different ideational perspectives they have about world politics and their place in it. This paper deals with China’s conduct in and toward the UN Security Council from a constructivist perspective. China’s behavior rests on several notions, such as non-interference in the internal affairs of a State, and respect for its territorial integrity, as well as opposition to the use of force for regime change. China perceives the world as multipolar and pluralistic and considers that world politics should be conducted in a prudent and constructive manner that is based on consensus through consultation (among great powers) and the respect of the interests of all parties (including small and middle States). Since the start of the 21st century, China has been increasingly more active and assertive in the UNSC, which is evidenced by the fact that it is the permanent member with the most abstentions during this period and the only permanent member that has used the veto more times after the end of the Cold War than during it. At the same time, China wants to portray itself as a “responsible great power” in the UN and in the global order and pays considerable effort in building and maintaining this image. Yet, it stands for a restrictive interpretation of key concepts for international peace and security, such as sovereignty, responsibility, and threat to peace, and is not keen on Security Council reform.

After 2011, America has pursued a strategy of "offshore balancing" in the Middle East and has abandoned direct intervention, particularly in Syria and Iraq. The analyses of this research contribute to a better understanding of how the policy and position of the Kurds in Syria have been affected by America's new strategy in the region, as well as the fate and future of the Kurds in Syria. How has the political position of the Kurds in Syria been affected by America's offshore balancing strategy between 2014 and 2025? This research aims to answer this question by analyzing and evaluating American behavior toward the Kurds and their response to the threats and crises of the region during this specific period. The research uses the assumptions, principles, and concepts of offshore balancing as criteria for analyzing and evaluating American behavior in pursuit of its strategic objectives in Syria. The research findings show that offshore balancing strategy is unstable. Uncertainty, danger, and ambiguity are among the most important consequences of this strategy for the de facto Kurdish authority in Syria. Even after the fall of the Assad regime, dangers to Kurdish areas in Syria have persisted, and the Kurds have faced several challenges, including internal Kurdish disagreements, pressure from regional actors, Turkey's role, regime change, the Kurdistan Democratic Party,and economic and ideological challenges, particularly regarding the potential dissolution of the PKK.

The article examines adaptive management of the budget process under martial law and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. It is substantiated that under conditions of large-scale security shocks, traditional budget planning mechanisms oriented toward stability and predictability of fiscal parameters significantly lose their effectiveness. In such circumstances, the ability of the public finance system to respond promptly to external challenges, reallocate budget resources, and maintain the financial stability of the state becomes crucial. The purpose of the study is to develop a conceptual model of adaptive management of the budget process during wartime, to identify criteria for assessing its effectiveness, and to determine the limits of managerial discretion under the crisis functioning of the budget system. The research employs methods of structural analysis, statistical measures of variation, and econometric tools, including the structural adaptation index based on the L1-metric, the coefficient of variation, and the Chow structural break test. A model of adaptive budget management is proposed, which includes scenario budgeting, mechanisms for the rapid reallocation of budget resources, centralized coordination of the budget process, liquidity management of public finances, and a feedback system for the regular adjustment of budget decisions. It is shown that the effectiveness of adaptive management depends on the speed of decision-making, the flexibility of the expenditure structure, coordination between different levels of government, and the ability to control fiscal risks. Based on the analysis of the structure of state budget expenditures of Ukraine for 2021–2025, it is established that the beginning of the full-scale war caused a sharp transformation of budget priorities and a significant reallocation of resources in favor of the security and defense sector. The results of the structural adaptation index indicate a phase of shock restructuring of the budget system in 2022, followed by a transition to a stage of stabilization adaptation. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the proposed approach to the comprehensive assessment of the adaptability of the budget process, which combines the analysis of structural shifts, the measurement of financial turbulence, and the identification of regime changes in the functioning of the budget system. The practical significance of the results lies in the possibility of applying the proposed tools to improve wartime budgeting mechanisms and to develop strategies for the post-crisis stabilization of public finances.