CONTEXTSustainable dairy production is included in the policy agenda of many countries in the tropics to address, among others, their commitment to the Paris Agreement. To the best of our knowledge, however, a study to assess the impact of the proposed interventions for sustainable dairy production is still lacking for most of those countries. Using policy goals as entry points to develop scenarios can provide insight into the impact of policy interventions on dairy farming practices. OBJECTIVEThis study aimed to evaluate the implication of interventions towards sustainable dairy development identified by the governments of Indonesia and Costa Rica. METHODSInformation about current farming practices (i.e. the baseline) were collected on 32 smallholder dairy farms in Indonesia and 24 dairy farms in Costa Rica. Scenarios were designed based on policy goals for dairy development and climate change mitigation in each country. The scenarios for Indonesia encompassed relocation of the dairy sector to Sumatra to allow coupling of livestock to land combined with a restriction on manure production to ensure all manure to be applied to grow forage, and a restriction on the amount of purchased feeds, at two levels: maximally 100% and 50% of the baseline. The scenarios for Costa Rica included a silvopastoral system and a reduction in the amount of purchased feeds, at two levels: 50% and 80% lower than the baseline. We estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at chain level and carbon (C) stocks at farm level. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSThe scenarios for Indonesia increased herd size and milk output by 240–360%, and GHG emissions per farm by 269–455%, while decreased GHG emissions per kg milk by 1–10%, compared to the baseline. C stocks per farm were higher in the scenarios than in the baseline, but compared to natural vegetation much more C is lost under the scenarios because more land is being used. The scenarios for Costa Rica reduced herd size and milk output by 5–25% and GHG emissions per farm by 17–35%, while GHG emissions per kg milk decreased by 10%, compared to the baseline. C stocks per farm were comparable. SIGNIFICANCETo achieve the multiple policy goals for sustainable dairy development, the governments need to consider the trade-off between increasing milk production and reducing GHG emissions. In Indonesia, relocation of the dairy sector needs a strict policy to avoid the expansion of dairy farms into tropical forest land. Furthermore, the Costa Rican government needs to incentivise dairy farmers to implement a silvopastoral system to reduce GHG emissions and land use. This, however, will be at the expense of milk output.
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