Risk Of Recurrence In Patients Research Articles

The usefulness of CanAssist breast in the assessment of recurrence risk in patients of ethnic Indian origin

Accurate recurrence risk assessment in hormone receptor positive, HER2/neu negative breast cancer is critical to plan precise therapy. CanAssist Breast (CAB) assesses recurrence risk based on tumor biology using artificial intelligence-based approach. We report CAB risk assessment correlating with disease outcomes in multiple clinically high- and low-risk subgroups. In this retrospective cohort of 925 patients [median age-54 (22–86)] CAB had hazard ratio (HR) of 3 (1.83–5.21) and 2.5 (1.45–4.29), P = 0.0009) in univariate and multivariate analysis. CAB's HR in sub-groups with the other determinants of outcome, T2 (HR: 2.79 (1.49–5.25), P = 0.0001); age [< 50 (HR: 3.14 (1.39–7), P = 0.0008)]. Besides application in node-negative patients, CAB's HR was 2.45 (1.34–4.47), P = 0.0023) in node-positive patients. In clinically low-risk patients (N0 tumors up to 5 cms) (HR: 2.48 (0.79–7.8), P = 0.03) and with luminal-A characteristics (HR: 4.54 (1–19.75), P = 0.004), CAB identified >16% as high-risk with recurrence rates of up to 12%. In clinically high-risk patients (T2N1 tumors (HR: 2.65 (1.31–5.36), P = 0.003; low-risk DMFS: 92.66 ± 1.88) and in women with luminal-B characteristics (HR: 3.24; (1.69–6.22), P < 0.0001; low-risk DMFS: 93.34 ± 1.34)), CAB identified >64% as low-risk. Thus, CAB prognostication was significant in women with clinically low- and high-risk disease. The data imply the use of CAB for providing helpful information to stratify tumors based on biology incorporated with clinical features for Indian patients, which can be extrapolated to regions with similarly characterized patients, South-East Asia.

Neoadjuvant Nivolumab in Patients with High-risk Nonmetastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma

Neoadjuvant immune checkpoint blockade represents a novel approach for potentially decreasing the risk of recurrence in patients with nonmetastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC). In this early phase clincal tiral, we evaluated the safety and tolerability of neoadjuvant treatment with the programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) inhibitor nivolumab in patients with nonmetastatic high-risk RCC. Nonprimary endpoints included objective radiographic tumor response rate, immune-related pathologic response rate, quality of life alterations, and metastasis-free and overall survival. In total, 17 patients were enrolled in this study and underwent surgery without a delay after receiving three every-2-wk doses of neoadjuvant nivolumab. Adverse events (AEs) of any grade occurred in 14 (82.4%) patients, with two (11.8%) experiencing grade 3 events. Ten (58.8%) patients experienced an AE of any grade potentially attributable to nivolumab (all grade 1–2), and no grade 4–5 AEs occurred regardless of treatment attribution. The most common AEs were grade 1 fatigue (41.2%), grade 1 pruritis (29.4%), and grade 1 rash (29.4%). All evaluable patients had stable disease as per established radiographic criteria, with one (6.7%) demonstrating features of an immune-related pathologic response. Quality of life remained stable during treatment, with improvements relative to baseline noted at ≥6 mo postoperatively. Metastasis-free survival and overall survival were 85.1% and 100% at 2 yr, respectively. Patient summaryIn this study, we evaluated the safety and tolerability of preoperative administration of three doses of the immune checkpoint inhibitor nivolumab in patients with clinically localized high-risk renal cell carcinoma. We demonstrated the safety of this approach and found that, although most patients will not experience a radiographic response to treatment, a subset may have features of an immune-related pathologic response.

Prognostic value of response evaluation based on breast MRI after neoadjuvant treatment: a retrospective cohort study.

To investigate the impact of response evaluation after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in breast cancer patients, assessed by both magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and pathology, on disease-free survival (DFS). This single-center, retrospective cohort study included consecutive breast cancer patients who underwent NAC and preoperative breast MRI. Resolution of invasive carcinoma in the breast and axilla was defined as complete pathological response (pCR). Radiological complete response (rCR) was defined as the absence of abnormal enhancement in the tumor site. Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to estimate the disease-free survival on 60 months. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratio (HR) values. In total, 317 patients were included with a mean age of 47.3 years and a mean tumor size of 39.8 mm. The most common immunophenotype was luminal (44.9%), followed by triple-negative (26.8%). Overall, 126 patients (39.7%) had an rCR, while 119 (37.5%) had pCR; the radiological and pathological responses agreed in 252 cases (79.5%). During follow-up, patients who had rCR and pCR had a better DFS curve compared to patients with non-rCR and non-pCR, while those who had rCR or pCR presented an intermediate curve (Log-rank p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis showed a higher risk of recurrence in patients with non-rCR and non-pCR (HR: 5,626; p = 0.020) and those who had a complete response on MRI or pathology only (HR: 4,369; p = 0.067), when compared to patients with rCR and pCR. The association of MRI and pathological responses after NAC might better stratify the risk of recurrence and prognosis in breast cancer patients. • Association of response evaluation after neoadjuvant chemotherapy by pathology and MRI allows better stratification of prognosis. • Complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy on pathology and MRI was related to better disease-free survival. • Complete response on MRI or pathology only had a greater risk of recurrence.

One-Stage Buccal Mucosal Graft Urethroplasty for Lichen Sclerosus-Related Urethral Stricture Disease: A Systematic Review and Pooled Proportional Meta-Analysis.

Performing 1-stage urethroplasty in patients with urethral strictures caused by lichen sclerosus (LS) is hotly debated among reconstructive urologists due to conflicting reports of success. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the pooled incidence of stricture recurrence following 1-stage buccal mucosal graft (BMG) urethroplasty in patients with LS, to determine the impact of surgical technique on recurrence and to compare recurrence risk between patients with and without LS after 1-stage repairs. A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA criteria. The primary outcome was pooled incidence of recurrence, which was calculated using a Der-Simonian-Laird binary random effects model with a Freeman-Tukey arcsine transformation. A total of 21 studies were included, of which 15 provided data for comparative analyses. Pooled data from 625 LS patients revealed a stricture recurrence rate of 10% (95% CI 6-14). Among studies with longer followup (≥24 months), this increased to 18%. Among patients with penile urethral involvement, studies utilizing a penile skin incision had significantly higher pooled recurrence rates than those utilizing penile invagination (p=0.004). Across all studies, there was no evidence to suggest a difference in pooled recurrence rate between patients with and without LS (p=0.36). However, across only long-term studies, recurrence risk was significantly higher for patients with LS (OR 1.83, p=0.05). One-stage BMG urethroplasty is likely a viable surgical option for patients with LS-related strictures; however, high-quality data are limited. Future multi-institutional, long-term prospective studies are needed to assess durability of 1-stage repair.

The high risk of malarial recurrence in patients with Plasmodium-mixed infection after treatment with antimalarial drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundMalaria mixed infections are often unrecognized by microscopists in the hospitals, and a delay or failure to treat Plasmodium-mixed infection may lead to aggravated morbidity and increased mortality. The present study aimed to quantify the pooled proportion and risk of malarial recurrences after the treatment of Plasmodium-mixed infection. The results of the study may provide benefits in the management of Plasmodium-mixed infection in co-endemic regions.MethodsThis systematic review and meta-analysis searched the international Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO; ID = CRD42020199709), MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Scopus for potentially relevant studies in any language published between January 1, 1936, and July 20, 2020, assessing drug efficacy in patients with Plasmodium-mixed infection. The primary outcome was the pooled prevalence of Plasmodium parasitemia after initiating antimalarial treatment for Plasmodium-mixed infection. The secondary outcome was the pooled risk ratio (RR) of malarial recurrence in Plasmodium-mixed infection compared with those in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax mono-infection. The pooled analyses were calculated by random-effects meta-analysis. After the initial treatment in different days of recurrences (≤ 28 days or > 28 days), the risk of Plasmodium parasitemia was compared in subgroup analysis.ResultsOut of 5217 screened studies, 11 were included in the meta-analysis, including 4390 patients from six countries. The pooled prevalence of all recurrences of Plasmodium-mixed parasitemia was 30% (95% confidence interval (CI) 16–43; I2: 99.2%; 11 studies). The RR of malarial recurrence within 28 days after the initial treatment (clinical treatment failure) of Plasmodium-mixed parasitemia compared with the treatment of P. falciparum was 1.22 (p: 0.029; 95% CI 1.02–1.47; Cochran Q: 0.93; I2: 0%; six studies), while there was no significant difference in the risk of recurrence 28 days after initial treatment compared with the treatment of P. falciparum (p: 0.696, RR: 1.14; 95% CI 0.59–2.18; Cochran Q < 0.05; I2: 98.2%; four studies). The subgroup analysis of antimalarial drugs showed that significant malarial recurrence within 28 days was observed in patients treated with artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) with no significant heterogeneity (p: 0.028, RR: 1.31; 95% CI 1.03–1.66; Cochran Q: 0.834; I2: 0%).ConclusionsThe present findings showed a high prevalence of malarial recurrence after the initial treatment of Plasmodium-mixed infection. Moreover, significant malaria recurrence of mixed infection occurred within 28 days after treatment with ACTs.Graphical

Comparison of Long-Term Outcomes of Monotherapy and Polytherapy in Seizure-Free Patients With Epilepsy Following Antiseizure Medication Withdrawal.

Objective: The objectives of this study were to compare the risk and timing of seizure relapse in seizure-free patients with epilepsy following the withdrawal of monotherapy or polytherapy and to identify relevant influencing factors.Methods: Patients who had achieved at least a 2-year seizure remission and started the withdrawal of antiseizure medication (ASM) were enrolled in this study. All patients were followed for at least 3 years or until seizure relapse. According to the number of ASMs at the time of withdrawalwas about twice than that, patients were divided into two groups: monotherapy group and polytherapy group. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare the recurrence risk of the two groups. Univariate analysis and multiple logistic regression analysis were used to analyze potential confounding variables between patients treated with monotherapy and polytherapy.Results: A total of 188 patients (119 males and 69 females) were included. The average prescribed daily dose of most ASMs at the time of withdrawal was moderate or low (30–50% defined daily dose). The recurrence of most patients (89.2%) occurred within the first 3 years after withdrawal. The recurrence risk in patients treated with polytherapy at the time of withdrawal was about twice than that of the monotherapy group [p = 0.001, hazard ratio (HR) = 2.152, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.350–3.428]. Multivariate analysis showed that patients treated with polytherapy were significantly older at seizure onset [p = 0.024, odd ratio (OR) = 1.027, 95% CI = 1.004–1.052] and had a significantly longer duration of epilepsy before treatment (p = 0.004, OR = 1.009, 95% CI = 1.003–1.015) compared to patients in the monotherapy group. In addition, a history of perinatal injury was found to be an independent risk factor of seizure relapse in patients with ASM withdrawal.Conclusion: The average prescribed daily dose of most ASMs at the time of withdrawal was moderate or low. Patients who received polytherapy at the time of withdrawal, particularly those with later seizure onset age and longer epilepsy duration before treatment, had a higher recurrence risk after ASMs withdrawal compared to patients treated with monotherapy.

The risk of recurrence in surgically treated head and neck squamous cell carcinomas: a conditional probability approach

Background Over 50% of patients with head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) experience locoregional recurrence, which is associated with poor outcome. In the course of follow-up for patients surviving primary surgery for HNSCC, one might ask: What is the probability of recurrence in one year considering that the cancer has not yet recurred to date? Materials and methods To answer this question, 979 patients surgically treated for HNSCC (i.e. cancer of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx or larynx) between March 2004 and June 2018 were enrolled in a multicenter retrospective cohort study, followed up for death and recurrence over a 5 year period. The conditional probability of recurrence in 12 months – i.e. the probability of recurrence in the next 12 months given that, to date, the patient has not recurred – was derived from the cumulative incidence function (Aalen-Johansen method). Results Overall, the probability of recurrence was the highest during the first (17.3%) and the second years (9.6%) after surgery, declining thereafter to less than 5.0% a year thereafter. The probability of recurrence was significantly higher for stage III–IV HNSCCs than for stage I–II HNSCCs in the first year after surgery (20.4% versus 10.0%; p < 0.01), but not thereafter. This difference was most pronounced for oral cavity cancers. No significant differences were observed across different tumor sites. Conclusion This dynamic evaluation of recurrence risk in patients surgically treated for HNSCC provides helpful and clinically meaningful information, which can be useful to patients in planning their future life, and to clinicians in tailoring post-treatment surveillance according to a more personalized risk stratification.

Circulating tumor DNA dynamics and recurrence risk in patients undergoing curative intent resection of colorectal cancer liver metastases: A prospective cohort study.

BackgroundIn patients with resectable colorectal liver metastases (CRLM), the role of pre- and postoperative systemic therapy continues to be debated. Previous studies have shown that circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis, as a marker of minimal residual disease, is a powerful prognostic factor in patients with nonmetastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). Serial analysis of ctDNA in patients with resectable CRLM could inform the optimal use of perioperative chemotherapy. Here, we performed a validation study to confirm the prognostic impact of postoperative ctDNA in resectable CRLM observed in a previous discovery study.Methods and findingsWe prospectively collected plasma samples from patients with resectable CRLM, including presurgical and postsurgical samples, serial samples during any pre- or postoperative chemotherapy, and serial samples in follow-up. Via targeted sequencing of 15 genes commonly mutated in CRC, we identified at least 1 somatic mutation in each patient’s tumor. We then designed a personalized assay to assess 1 mutation in plasma samples using the Safe-SeqS assay. A total of 380 plasma samples from 54 patients recruited from July 2011 to Dec 2014 were included in our analysis. Twenty-three (43%) patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and 42 patients (78%) received adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery. Median follow-up was 51 months (interquartile range, 31 to 60 months). At least 1 somatic mutation was identified in all patients’ tumor tissue. ctDNA was detectable in 46/54 (85%) patients prior to any treatment and 12/49 (24%) patients after surgery. There was a median 40.93-fold (19.10 to 87.73, P < 0.001) decrease in ctDNA mutant allele fraction with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, but ctDNA clearance during neoadjuvant chemotherapy was not associated with a better recurrence-free survival (RFS). Patients with detectable postoperative ctDNA experienced a significantly lower RFS (HR 6.3; 95% CI 2.58 to 15.2; P < 0.001) and overall survival (HR 4.2; 95% CI 1.5 to 11.8; P < 0.001) compared to patients with undetectable ctDNA. For the 11 patients with detectable postoperative ctDNA who had serial ctDNA sampling during adjuvant chemotherapy, ctDNA clearance was observed in 3 patients, 2 of whom remained disease-free. All 8 patients with persistently detectable ctDNA after adjuvant chemotherapy have recurred. End-of-treatment (surgery +/− adjuvant chemotherapy) ctDNA detection was associated with a 5-year RFS of 0% compared to 75.6% for patients with an undetectable end-of-treatment ctDNA (HR 14.9; 95% CI 4.94 to 44.7; P < 0.001). Key limitations of the study include the small sample size and the potential for false-positive findings with multiple hypothesis testing.ConclusionsWe confirmed the prognostic impact of postsurgery and posttreatment ctDNA in patients with resected CRLM. The potential utility of serial ctDNA analysis during adjuvant chemotherapy as an early marker of treatment efficacy was also demonstrated. Further studies are required to define how to optimally integrate ctDNA analyses into decision-making regarding the use and timing of adjuvant therapy for resectable CRLM.Trial registrationACTRN12612000345886.

Development and Validation of an Autophagy-Stroma-Based Microenvironment Gene Signature for Risk Stratification in Colorectal Cancer.

BackgroundColorectal cancer is the fourth most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in the USA. The aim of this study was to establish a tumor gene signature based on tumor stromal cell and autophagy for predicting the risk of recurrence in patients with colorectal cancer.MethodsWe used “Rtsne” and “xCell” R packages to estimate autophagy and stroma status, respectively. The discovery cohort used microarray gene expression data retrieved from the GSE39582 dataset. The Cox regression model and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) were used to identify prognostic genes and to construct an autophagy-stroma-based gene signature. Moreover, external validation was conducted using GSE17538, GSE38832, TCGA database, and patient data obtained from the First Hospital of China Medical University (CMU).ResultsThe LASSO model identified three genes (TNS1, TAGLN, and SFRP4) which were used to develop a risk stratification gene signature. The autophagy-stroma-based gene signature was identified as an independent prognostic factor by multivariate analysis (p = 0.0023). The results were validated in GSE17538 (p=0.0062), GSE38832 (p=0.028), TCGA (p=0.046) database, and patient data obtained from the First Hospital of China Medical University (CMU) (p=0.027).ConclusionWe have established and verified a feasible prognostic model of colorectal cancer based on autophagy and stromal cell characteristics of patients. The model can be used to evaluate recurrence risk of cancer patients, and the hub genes in the model provide potential targets for targeted colorectal cancer treatment.

Salpingo-oophorectomy versus cystectomy in patients with borderline ovarian tumors: a systemic review and meta-analysis on postoperative recurrence and fertility

BackgroundTo compare the postoperative recurrence and fertility in patients with borderline ovarian tumors (BOTs) who underwent different surgical procedures: salpingo-oophorectomy versus cystectomy.MethodsPotentially relevant literature from inception to Nov. 06, 2020, were retrieved in databases including Cochrane Library, EMBASE (Ovid), and MEDLINE (Pubmed). We applied the keywords “fertility-sparing surgery,” or “conservative surgery,” or “cystectomy,” or “salpingo-oophorectomy,” or “oophorectomy,” or “adnexectomy,” or “borderline ovarian tumor” for literate searching. Systemic reviews and meta-analyses were performed on the postoperative recurrence rates and pregnancy rates between patients receiving the two different surgical methods. Begger’s methods, Egger’s methods, and funnel plot were used to evaluate the publication bias.ResultAmong the sixteen eligible studies, the risk of recurrence was evaluated in all studies, and eight studies assessed the postoperative pregnancy rates in the BOT patients. A total of 1839 cases with borderline ovarian tumors were included, in which 697 patients (37.9%) received unilateral salpingo-oophorectomy and 1142 patients (62.1%) underwent unilateral/bilateral cystectomy. Meta-analyses showed that BOT patients with unilateral/bilateral cystectomy had significantly higher recurrence risk (OR=2.02, 95% CI: 1.59-2.57) compared with those receiving unilateral salpingo-oophorectomy. Pooled analysis of four studies further confirmed the higher risk of recurrence in patients with cystectomy (HR=2.00, 95% CI: 1.11-3.58). In addition, no significant difference in postoperative pregnancy rate was found between patients with the two different surgical procedures (OR=0.92, 95% CI: 0.60-1.42).ConclusionCompared with the unilateral/bilateral cystectomy, the unilateral salpingo-oophorectomy significantly reduces the risk of postoperative recurrence in patients with BOT, and it does not reduce the pregnancy of patients after surgery.Trial registrationPROSPERO CRD42021238177

Influence of Antiplatelet and Anticoagulant Drug Use on Outcomes after Chronic Subdural Hematoma Drainage.

We aim to describe the outcomes after chronic subdural hematoma drainage (CSDH) management in a large cohort of patients on antithrombotic drugs, either antiplatelets or anticoagulants, at presentation and to inform clinical decision making on the timing of surgery and recommencement of these drugs. We used data from a previous UK-based multi-center, prospective cohort study. Outcomes included recurrence within 60 days, functional outcome at discharge, and thromboembolic event during hospital stay. We performed Cox regression on recurrence and multiple logistic regression on functional outcome. There were 817 patients included in the analysis, of which 353 (43.2%) were on an antithrombotic drug at presentation. We observed a gradual reduction in risk of recurrence for patients during the 6 weeks post-CSDH surgery. Neither antiplatelet nor anticoagulant drug use influenced risk of CSDH recurrence (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58–1.48; p = 0.76) or persistent/worse functional impairment (odds ratio, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.76–1.55; p = 0.66). Delaying surgery after cessation of antiplatelet drug did not affect risk of bleed recurrence. There were 15 in-hospital thromboembolic events recorded. Events were more common in the group pre-treated with antithrombotic drugs (3.3%) compared to the non-antithrombotic group (0.9%). Patients on an antithrombotic drug pre-operatively were at higher risk of thromboembolic events with no excess risk of bleed recurrence or worse functional outcome after CSDH drainage. The data did not support delaying surgery in patients on antithrombotic therapy. In the absence of a randomized controlled trial, early surgery and early antithrombotic recommencement should be considered in those at high risk of thromboembolic events.

Baseline characteristics of myopic choroidal neovascularization in patients above 50\xa0years old and prognostic factors after intravitreal conbercept treatment

To investigate the influence of age on the function and morphology of patients with myopic choroidal neovascularization (mCNV) and to evaluate the effect and prognostic factors of recurrence of Conbercept treatment on mCNV patients over 50 years. A total of 64 patients (64 eyes) with mCNV were enrolled in this retrospective study. The differences in baseline best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and morphological features on imaging between the younger group (˂ 50 years) and the older group (≥ 50 years) were analyzed. Of all, 21 eyes of 21 mCNV patients aged over 50 years who received Conbercept injection were further analyzed. Between the younger and the older group, significant differences were shown in mean BCVA (0.58 ± 0.28 vs 0.77 ± 0.31), subfoveal choroidal thickness (SFCT) (108.17 ± 78.32 μm vs 54.68 ± 39.03 μm) and frequency of vitreoretinal interface abnormalities (VIA) (2 vs 13), respectively (P < 0.05). After treated with Conbercept, the mean BCVA of 21 older mCNV patients increased from 0.83 ± 0.30 at baseline to 0.49 ± 0.24 at one year. Baseline BCVA, external limiting membrane damage, CNV area and CNV location correlated with the visual acuity at the 1-year follow-up. There were 7 (33.3%) recurrent cases during the follow-up and the risk of recurrence in patients with baseline central macular thickness (CMT) ≥ 262.86 μm was 14 times greater than that of patients with CMT < 262.86 μm. The risk of recurrence increased 1.84 times for every 100-μm increment in the CMT. Patients over 50 years with mCNV had a worse BCVA, thinner choroid, and higher risk of VIA than young mCNV patients. The standard Conbercept treatment strategy was safe and effective in mCNV patients over 50 years. As patients over 50 years with a greater CMT have a high risk of recurrence, more attention should be paid on these patients by following them up closely.

Prognostic scoring models in parotid gland carcinoma

The aim was to identify prognostic factors and test three prognostic scoring models that predicted the risk of recurrence in patients with parotid gland carcinoma. All Danish patients with parotid gland carcinoma, treated with curative intent, from 1990 to 2015 (n=726) were included. Potential prognostic factors were evaluated using Cox regression and competing risk analyses. The concordance of each prognostic model was estimated using Harrel's C index. The study population consisted of 344 men and 382 women, with a median age of 63 years. Age above 60 years, high grade histology, T3/T4 tumor, regional lymph node metastases, and involved surgical margins were all associated with a significant reduction in recurrence-free survival. The prognostic model that agreed best with actual outcomes had a C-index of 0.76. Prognostic scoring models may improve individualized follow-up strategies after curatively intended treatment for patients with parotid gland carcinoma.

Predicting Recurrence for Patients With Ischemic Cerebrovascular Events Based on Process Discovery and Transfer Learning.

The recurrence of Ischemic cerebrovascular events (ICE) often results in a high rate of mortality and disability. However, due to the lack of labeled follow-up data in hospitals, prediction methods using traditional machine learning are usually not available or reliable. Therefore, we propose a new framework for predicting the long-term recurrence risk in patients with ICE after discharge from hospitals based on process mining and transfer learning, to point out high-risk patients for intervention. First, process models are discovered from clinical guidelines for analyzing the similarity of ICE population data collected by different medical institutions, and the control flow found are taken as added characteristics of patients. Then we use the in-hospital data (target domain) and the national stroke screening data (source domain), to develop risk prediction models applying instance filter and weight-based transfer learning method. To verify our method, 205 cases from a tertiary hospital and 2954 cases from the screening cohort (2015-2017) are tested. Experimental results show that our framework can improve the performance of three instance-based transfer algorithms. This study provides a comprehensive and efficient approach for applying transfer learning, to alleviate the limitation of insufficient labeled follow-up data in hospitals.

Pre- and Postoperative Circulating IGF-I, IGFBP-3, and IGFBP-7 Levels in Relation to Endocrine Treatment and Breast Cancer Recurrence: A Nested Case-Control Study

Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and its binding proteins (BPs) have been associated with breast cancer risk, especially high IGF-I concentrations and the biologically active fraction estimated as the IGF-I/IGFBP-3 molar ratio. The relation of circulating IGF-I and IGFBP-3 concentrations with risk of breast cancer recurrence has been less documented. In addition a new member to a sub-group of the IGFBP-superfamily was recently identified, the low affinity IGFBP-7. To date, the role of systemic IGFBP-7 in breast cancer progression has not been investigated. Our purpose was to establish whether circulating IGF-I, IGFBP-3, and IGFBP-7 levels are related to recurrence-risk in breast cancer. A case-control study was nested within the population-based BCBlood cohort of 853 breast cancer patients diagnosed 2002–2010 in Sweden and followed through 2012. In total, 95 patients with recurrence and 170 controls were matched on age and tumor characteristics. Plasma IGF analytes and tumor membrane IGF-I receptor (IGF-IRm) positivity were analyzed and recurrence-risk was evaluated with conditional logistic regression. Preoperative tertiles of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 were both positively associated with recurrence-risk, but not IGFBP-7. The trend was of borderline significance for IGF-I, T1:REF, T2 OR:1.6, T3 OR: 2.2 adjusted P trend=0.057 and significant for IGFBP-3 T1:REF, T2 OR:1.2, T3 OR: 2.1 adjusted P trend=0.042. The models were adjusted for age, anthropometric factors, smoking, and treatments. There was a significant interaction between IGFBP-7 and IGF-IRm positivity on recurrence, where the highest IGFBP-7 highest IGFBP-7 tertile conferred increased recurrence-risk in patients with IGF-IRm positive tumors but not in those with IGF-IRm negative tumors (P interaction=0.024). By the 1-year visit, age-adjusted IGF-I levels were reduced by 17% while IGFBP-3 and IGFBP-7 were stable. IGF-I levels were significantly reduced by radiotherapy in all patients and by tamoxifen in patients with ER+ tumors. Postoperative changes >10% (n=208) in IGF-I, IGFBP-3, IGFBP-7, or the IGF-I/IGFBP-3 ratio did not predict recurrence after adjustment for preoperative levels, age, anthropometric factors, smoking, and treatments. In conclusion, this study suggests that preoperative IGF-I and IGFBP-3 levels, but not postoperative changes, might provide independent prognostic information and influence breast cancer recurrence. The role of IGFBP-7 in breast cancer merits further study.

Initial topical monotherapy may increase the risk of recurrence in patients with extramammary Paget's disease.

Although topical therapies are used to treat extramammary Paget's disease (EMPD), reliable treatment outcomes and the effects of these therapies on subsequent surgical treatments are unclear. To assess the clinical outcomes of topical treatment of EMPD and establish the treatment guidelines the medical records of 166 patients diagnosed with EMPD were retrospectively reviewed. The recurrence rate was evaluated according to the previous use of topical agents. Thirty-four patients (34/166, 20.5%) were initially treated with topical agents such as imiquimod, 5-fluorouracil, and ingenol mebutate. Three patients (3/34, 8.8%) showed clinical response, while 31 patients required subsequent therapy owing to treatment failure. Analysis of the prognostic factors of recurrence in 166 patients revealed that initial topical treatment increased the hazard ratio (HR) in both univariate and multiple Cox proportional hazards models (HR=3.770, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.768-8.037, P=0.001, and adjusted HR=3.628, 95% CI=1.558-8.450, P=0.003). Patients treated with topical agents showed significantly poorer 3-year recurrence-free survival than the nontreated group (66.3% vs 88.6%, P<0.001). Topical treatment may be deleterious for some EMPD patients, thus increasing the recurrence risk.

Unique prognostic features of grade 3 endometrioid endometrial carcinoma: Findings from 101 consecutive cases at a Japanese tertiary cancer center

ObjectiveThe prognosis of and optimal treatment for grade 3 endometrioid endometrial carcinoma (G3EEC) currently remain unclear. This study aimed to clarify the baseline recurrence risk in patients with early-stage (stage I–II) G3EEC without adjuvant therapy and the prognosis of patients with advanced-stage (stage III–IV) G3EEC. Materials and methodsA total of 101 patients with pathologically confirmed G3EEC from 1997 to 2018 were identified. Their clinicopathological characteristics and survival outcomes were reviewed retrospectively. Disease-free survival and overall survival values were estimated according to the Kaplan–Meier method and compared using a log-rank test. ResultsRecurrence was observed in eight (13%) of 63 patients with early-stage G3EEC, none of whom had received adjuvant therapy. The 5-year disease-free survival and 5-year overall survival rates for these patients were 86.7% and 96.4%, respectively. Recurrence was also observed in 12 (41%) of 29 patients with stage III G3EEC. The 5-year overall survival rates for stage III patients who underwent adjuvant chemotherapy and adjuvant radiotherapy were 85.6% and 42.9%, respectively. The 3-year overall survival rate among stage IVB patients was only 12.7% despite multidisciplinary treatment provision. ConclusionOur study newly demonstrates that patients with early-stage G3EEC have a favorable prognosis and a low recurrence rate in the absence of adjuvant therapy. In patients with stage III G3EEC, adjuvant chemotherapy was more beneficial than adjuvant radiotherapy. The poor prognosis of patients with stage IV G3EEC indicates the need for more effective treatments. Unique therapeutic approaches based on staging are recommended for treatment of G3EEC.

Abstract P702: How Many Cryptogenic Stroke Patients Should Be Candidates for Patent Foramen Ovale Closure?

Background and Purpose: Recent several studies demonstrated that percutaneous patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure reduced the risk of stroke recurrence for patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and PFO. Our aim of this retrospective study is to survey the frequency of CS, which can be an indication of PFO closure. Methods: Subjects were consecutive stroke patients with symptomatic ischemic lesion detected by magnetic resonance imaging. Of them, CS were extracted according to exclusion of small-vessel collusion, large-artery atherosclerosis, cardioembolism, definite case of aortogenic embolism, and distinctive causeof ischemic stroke such as arterial dissection, hypercoagulable state and so on. After that, we selected patients in accordance with clinical guideline of PFO closure recommended by the Japanese Stroke Association (Figure). We analyzed the prevalence of CS with right-to-left shunt (RLS) as a good and recommended candidates for PFO closure. Results: Among 1,374 ischemic stroke patients from October 2012 to September 2019 , CS were 240 patients (83 females, mean age of 66 years, 17% of subjects). Of them, 100 patients (42%) had RLS (PFO; 65, atrial septal defect; 1, pulmonary arteriovenous fistula; 1, positive on transcranial Doppler (not performed in TEE) including 21 cases of definite of paradoxical embolism. In 65 patients of CS with PFO, 30 patients younger than 60 years (13% of CS) were good candidates for PFO closure. Moreover, 22 of 1,374 (1.6%) patients who were recommended candidates had one or more high risk factors of PFO, for example large shunt, atrial septal aneurysm, and the presence of shunt at rest (Figure). Conclusions: In our preliminary survey, 2% of acute ischemic stroke should be PFO closure candidates.

Safety evaluation of emicizumab prophylaxis in individuals with haemophilia A

ABSTRACT Introduction Emicizumab is a bispecific-humanized monoclonal antibody that improves hemostasis by bridging activated factor IX and factor X to substitute for the function of missing activated FVIII. It is an alternative to prophylaxis with factor VIII replacement and is associated with improved outcomes in individuals with hemophilia A with and without inhibitors. Areas covered Emicizumab is efficacious in reducing bleeding events when compared to on-demand treatment and factor-based prophylaxis. Except for the few thrombotic microangiopathy and thrombotic event cases mainly seen in the HAVEN 1 trial, emicizumab has an overall excellent safety profile with minimal side effects. Expert opinion Knowledge gaps include the efficacy and safety of emicizumab in younger age groups and those with mild or moderate hemophilia A. Future directions for research include exploring the risk of inhibitor recurrence in patients with a history of high titer inhibitor who have been successfully tolerized, who switch from factor prophylaxis to emicizumab, as well as conducting ‘real world studies’ to evaluate the patient’s perception of emicizumab in regard to ease and tolerability in order to optimize individualized treatment plans.

Sex Hormones, Insulin, and Insulin-like Growth Factors in Recurrence of High-Stage Endometrial Cancer.

The influence of sex hormone and insulin/insulin-like growth factor (IGF) axis signaling on endometrial cancer recurrence is unknown. We evaluated these pathways in a prospective cohort of Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG)0210 trial endometrial adenocarcinoma patients. Stage II-IV patients (N = 816) were included in this study. Pretreatment specimens were tested for tumor mRNA and protein expression of IGF1, IGF2, IGF-binding proteins (IGFBP)-1 and -3, insulin (IR) and IGF-I receptors (IGF1R), phosphorylated IR/IGF1R (pIGF1R/pIR), and estrogen (ER) and progesterone receptors (PR) using qPCR and IHC. Serum concentrations of insulin, IGF-I, IGFBP-3, estradiol, estrone, and sex hormone binding globulin were measured. HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for progression-free survival were calculated from Cox models adjusting for age, stage, and grade. Recurrence occurred in 280 (34%) cases during a median of 4.6 years of follow-up. ER positivity (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.47-0.95), IR positivity (HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.29-0.98), and circulating IGF-I (highest vs. lowest quartile: HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.47-0.92) were inversely associated with recurrence risk. Circulating estradiol (highest vs. lowest tertile: HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.02-2.36) and pIGF1R/pIR positivity (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.02-1.92) were associated with increased recurrence risk. Circulating estradiol and tumor tissue phosphorylated (activated) IGR1R/IR were independently associated with higher risk of recurrence in patients with endometrial cancer. This study may inform future clinical trials of endocrine-targeted adjuvant therapies in patients with endometrial cancer that could include baseline assessment of serum and tissue biomarkers of estradiol and insulin signaling pathways.