Real Options Approach Research Articles

Circular Economy and Value Creation: Sustainable Finance with a Real Options Approach

This paper presents a methodological proposal that integrates the circular economy concept and financial valuation through real options analysis. The Value Hill model of a circular economy provides a representation of the course followed by the value of an asset. Specifically, after the primary use, the life of an asset may be extended by going through four phases: the 4R phases (Reuse, Refurbish, Remanufacture and Recycle). Financial valuation allows us to quantify value creation from firms’ asset circularity under uncertainty, modelled by binomial trees. Furthermore, the 4R phases are valued as real options by applying no-arbitrage opportunity arguments. The major contribution of this paper is to provide a quantitative approach to the value of circularity in a general context that is adaptable to firms’ specific situations. This approach is also useful for translating relevant information for stakeholders and policy makers into something with economic and financial value.

REAL OPTION AND VERTICAL MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENT

Vertical mixed-use development is a favourite choice in urban development in high-density Asian cities to increase the land use efficiency. The flexibility of construction timing and the restrictions by lease contracts in vertical mixeduse projects are usually different from horizontal ones and single-use properties. To improve the valuation for vertical mixed-use projects, this study re-examines the real option pricing model. Simultaneous development for different uses and a finite maximum waiting period are the major characteristics of these projects. An approach is introduced to determine whether to develop a mixed-use project vertically or horizontally on the basis of a statistics called the critical height premium. The vertical mixed-use project pricing model can be further verified by containing a height premium if market price information is derived from non-vertical mixed-use properties. This study suggests a more comprehensive real option approach to quantify the advantages and disadvantages of operating vertical mixed-use developments.

A real options approach to investment timing decisions in utility-scale renewable energy in Ghana

Private capital is required to urgently complement government's efforts to meet initial capital outlay in renewable energy investments. However, minimising the downside risks for a given return in such a venture presents valuation challenges, including the timing of such investments. Investment timing is therefore relevant to consider when making investments in utility-scale renewable energy technologies which require high initial capital.This study assesses the value of investment delay in renewable energy projects using real options analysis. A model that combines binomial trees and Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the optimal investment timing of the first cycle of Ghana's Renewable Energy Master Plan. The model incorporates multiple dimensions of uncertainties related to market, economic and technological factors to determine the value of delaying utility-scale renewable energy investments.The results show value in delaying investments until uncertainties are reduced and maximum benefit is obtained. Also, high system capacities and favourable renewable energy policies that border on attractive feed-in tariffs are required to drive private investment in utility-scale renewable energy.

Economic service life of equipment under uncertain revenues: A real options approach

Companies which utilize equipment as a critical manufacturing asset should resolve the problem of economic replacement. In this article, a case study of equipment replacement for an auto parts manufacturer is presented. We derive a formula to calculate the expected service life using a classical binomial real options model under revenue uncertainty. A sensitivity analysis shows that the initial cost of the equipment has the largest impact on the expected service life in this case study. The presented real option model is applicable to manufacturing companies which seek to the solution of economic equipment replacement under revenue uncertainty.

Switch and defer option in renewable energy projects: Evidences from Brazil

The global electricity sector is responsible for a large share of greenhouse gas. Renewable energy (RE) is a feasible alternative to maintain sustainable growth and economic development, as it appears to be a means to reduce emissions and decarbonize economies. Renewable energy projects present some uncertainties and flexibilities that are ignored by traditional methods of evaluation, such as the net present value (NPV), which can lead to undervaluation. This paper aims to assess the switch-output option and defer option for RE projects according to their features in the Brazilian electricity market. The real options approach (ROA) for RE projects seeks to capture the value of uncertainties and flexibilities that all projects have from an investor's point of view. Then, when we adopted a more sophisticated approach that values flexibilities and uncertainties for RE projects, it was possible to conclude that there was a clear increase in value when compared to traditional investment analysis methods like the NPV.

Optimal timing of investments modeled as perpetual American options in a Levy market

Using a real option approach, this paper models an arbitrary real life investment, which typically has a long maturity date, as a perpetual American call option in a Levy market. Expressions for the moments, characteristic function and infinitesimal generator of the associated jump-diffusion Levy process, defined by two independent compound Poisson processes and two correlated standard Brownian motions, are derived and these fundamental results are employed to determine the optimal time for investment. An application of the results to a Build Operate and Transfer investment is furnished.

Real options approach for a staged field development with optional wells

With the decreasing average size of new discoveries in mature production areas, the uncertainties in the base of oil field investment decisions are continually increasing. Fewer appraisal wells, which allow to decrease the amount of subsurface uncertainty, are typically drilled before the development of a small field compared to large fields. In this context, novel solutions must be established to commercialize small discoveries under technical and market uncertainties. In such conditions, managerial flexibilities, which enable to change the course of the project in the event of new information acquisition, must be critically considered in the investment valuation process. Combining the real options approach and decision analysis, we establish a novel model to identify the additional value created by a sequential drilling strategy for field development under oil price and resource uncertainty. In particular, we capture the sequence of the key investment and operating decisions pertaining to a marginal field development in cooperation with an oil industry partner, which corresponds to a synthetic yet realistic project case. By considering the flexibility in dividing the production well drilling into two stages, we adopt the least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm to evaluate the option to wait to expand the production by drilling additional wells. Furthermore, we identify the conditions in which the staged (phased) development is preferable against standard development. We propose a decision rule to determine the optimal expansion timing based on the acquisition of new information on the reservoir and oil price uncertainty. Our results suggest that staged development carries large upside potential for the marginal field development under extensive reservoir uncertainty. In addition, partial hedging against the downside risks in the staged development can enhance the project's economy in a sufficiently significant manner to justify investment.

Optimal timing of multiple investment decisions in a wood value chain: A real options approach

A new reductive catalytic fractionation biorefinery process (RCF) is currently being developed transforming wood into high-value end-products. RCF is considered to be in the pilot stage with a technology readiness level of 5–6. Apart from the RCF-process characteristics, the economic feasibility also depends on the investment decisions that are made upstream and downstream within the wood value chain, increasing the level of uncertainty. Two investment options within the value chain are considered: an option to invest in harvesting equipment and an option to invest in the RCF. To understand the impact of multiple sources of uncertainty on the decision to invest in an innovative RCF-driven wood value chain, an analytical two-factor real options model is presented, accounting for correlated cost and price uncertainties. Two different scenarios, separated and united investments in harvesting equipment and RCF, are analyzed. In both scenarios, market uncertainty postpones investment in comparison to the traditional NPV approach. When both investments are considered separately, the investment in RCF is expected to be earlier than the investment in harvesting equipment. When both investment decisions are united, the probability of investment increases. The study reveals that RCF has the potential to stimulate investments from different investors, –upstream and midstream–, within the wood value chain. Besides, the introduced real options model proofs its ability to assess the economic feasibility of innovative technologies (e.g RCF) individually or within the value chain, taking into account multiple sources of uncertainty.

Evaluation of Strategies of Key Categories of Actors in the Functioning of the Free Port of Vladivostok and Other Development Programs of the Far East Based on the Determination of the Value of Expected Future Losses and Acquisitions

Internationalization of the world trade and severe competition for the position in global value chains stimulate countries all over the world to create special economic zones (SEZ). For the Russian Far East, the SEZ are the major element of fostering industrial growth and overall economic development. There are Free Port of Vladivostok, Territories of Advanced Economic Development and other development programs created to ensure inflow of investors into the economy of the macro-region. The state offers both tax deductions for up to 10 years and direct budget expenditures for creating infrastructure for the future project sites. Natural consequence of that is the problem of very different financial efficiency of potential projects and dire need to sort or filter those projects that will, probably, be mutually beneficial both for investor and for the state budget from those that, again probably, will benefit only one party or even fail for both. We started from applying standard mechanisms of project evaluation, based on sum of the discounted cash flows comparing to discounted investments, and then enrich it with instruments of working with probable events to make it more flexible. Then based on real-options approach, we show an anticipated cash-flow as the representation of project’s efficiency and create strategy matrix for private and public parties of the cooperation.

The Appraisal of Assets’ Fair Value Using the Real Options Technique

The goal of this paper is to analyse and systematise the possible approaches to real options valuation, especially when considering the practical aspects of their application in real-life valuation problems. Therefore, the paper sets the following tasks: To outline the concept of fair value and analyse the traditional approaches to its calculation in the context of asset valuation To define the real-option approach to fair value estimation and analyse its theoretical background To determine the role of the real options approach in the traditional system of valuation techniques To analyse the practical aspects of their application in valuation problems considering the corresponding examples To provide the real-life example of this technique applied in current market conditions using the recent data. The object of this research is the option pricing models, and the subject is their application in estimation of real options embedded in corporate valuations, particularly considering the side.

The impact of feed-in tariff degression on R&D investment in renewable energy: The case of the solar PV industry

Feed-in tariff (FIT) is a broadly used policy instrument around the world, in which the payment level is always designed to decline gradually in order to track and encourage technological improvement in renewable energy. However, the potential adverse effects of tariff degression on renewable energy research and development (R&D) investment have not been sufficiently addressed. In this paper, we explore the impact of FIT payment degression on renewable energy R&D investment and analyze the efficient FIT payment structure for R&D investment. We form a modeling framework that captures the dynamics of FIT payment levels and the inventor's strategic reactions to tariff changes. In this framework, we model the inventor's optimal R&D investment decisions based on the canonical real option approach and simulate the impact of FIT payment degression on R&D investment and the efficient FIT payment structure under different R&D characteristics using the case of the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry. Our results emphasize the adverse effect of tariff degression on the commercial value of new renewable technology and hence the inventor's incentive in R&D investment, especially when facing more technical uncertainty and financial constraints. Our model could help policymakers to design an efficient FIT payment structure through which the cost of the FIT program is restricted to a minimum level but without influencing the inventor's R&D investment decisions. • The impact of FIT changes on renewable energy R&D investment is explored. • A real option approach is proposed to model the inventor's investment decisions. • The simulation is performed using the case of the solar PV industry. • Implications for policymakers on the design of FIT programs are provided.

A barrier real option approach to evaluate public–private partnership projects and prevent moral hazard

A barrier real option approach to evaluate public–private partnership projects and prevent moral hazard

Price and subsidy under uncertainty: Real-option approach to optimal investment decisions on energy storage with solar PV

Renewable generation sources still have not achieved economic validity in many countries including Korea, and require subsidies to support the transition to a low-carbon economy. An initial Feed-In Tariff (FIT) was adopted to support the deployment of renewable energy in Korea until 2011 and then was switched to the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to implement more market-oriented mechanisms. However, high volatilities in electricity prices and subsidies under the RPS scheme have weakened investment incentives. In this study we estimate how the multiple price volatilities under the RPS scheme affect the optimal investment decisions of energy storage projects, whose importance is increasing rapidly because they can mitigate the variability and uncertainty of solar and wind generation in the power system. We applied mathematical analysis based on real-option methods to estimate the optimal trigger price for investment in energy-storage projects with and without multiple price volatilities. We found that the optimal trigger price of subsidy called the Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) under multiple price volatilities is 10.5% higher than that under no price volatilities. If the volatility of the REC price gets doubled, the project requires a 26.6% higher optimal investment price to justify the investment against the increased risk. In the end, we propose an auction scheme that has the advantage of both RPS and FIT in order to minimize the financial burden of the subsidy program by eliminating subsidy volatility and find the minimum willingness-to-accept price for investors.

Startup cash flows and venture capital investments: A real options approach

This paper studies venture capitalists' (VCs') sequential investment decisions in a real options model. We account for VCs' risk aversion, agency costs, and VC activism. We identify two separate investment policies: when startups have positive cash flows, more risk averse and more active VCs expedite their investments while higher agency costs delay staged investments. The opposite is true for negative‐cash‐flow startups. The model predicts a negative relation between risk aversion and stage length in line with the idea that VCs use stage length as a monitoring tool. We also show that higher growth rates and lower volatility encourage earlier investments.

Airport infrastructure investments and valuing expansion decisions using the compound real option approach

This study examines the value and the best time period to expand the investment of an airport infrastructure project by operating a flight school, skydiving center and guesthouse on the airport using compound real options and net present value methods. The results demonstrate that real option value of the project is more optimistic than traditional valuation method and the best time for expansion investment is eighth year of the operation. Moreover, sensitivity analyses showed that, the strongest variables effecting the project are volatility and discount rate. The findings show how real option methods and sensitivity analysis can contribute to future decisions of the managers.

Crossing the Brownian Bridge: valuing infrastructure capacity expansion policies as real options

In countries where transportation infrastructure is underdeveloped, newly built facilities tend to attract and increase demand. This can lead to situations where future traffic levels exceed the concession capacity limit, and additional investments in expansion is required. One common solution is to mandate this investment as a firm obligation in concession contracts, either after a set number of years or when demand reaches capacity. In this article, we show why these policies are suboptimal and propose a model that combines flexible capacity expansion decisions with conditional term extensions. We model this flexibility under the real options approach and the project value uncertainty during the life of the concession as a Brownian Bridge. As a novel contribution, we take into account the fact that concession revenues are bounded by the current traffic capacity of the road, which represents an upper absorbing barrier that has implications for the expansion decision. As a numerical application, this model is applied to a typical toll road project in Brazil. The results show that flexible expansion policies, coupled with conditional term extensions, have significant advantages. These findings can be of use to government officials involved in developing policies to attract private investment in public infrastructure projects.

Impact of Plant Utilization on Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty with Application to Refinery Investment

Why are some regions preferred when investors consider irreversible investment? This study offers an explanation to this question and suggests improvements that will assist disadvantaged regions improve on their bid for funds. The paper considers irreversible investment under uncertainty when installed capacity utilization is incorporated. We develop a normative model for irreversible investment problem under uncertainty using real options approach. Capacity utilization was not a major consideration by previous authors who assumed that installed capacity would be fully utilized. Variations in capacity utilization may be attributed to disruption in input supply or infrastructural bottlenecks that limit firms to get their products to customers. This study modifies the geometric Brownian motion for the value of a project to account for capacity utilization in the derivation of irreversible investment decision rule. The proposed model provides a theoretical explanation of how utilization affects irreversible investment decisions. Data on petroleum refinery margins is used to illustrate application of the proposed model to refinery investment. The study reveals that capacity utilization has an inverse effect on the investment trigger, and so, links irreversible investment decisions to plant utilization. We recommend optimal utilization of installed plant capacity for regions seeking funds for irreversible investment.

A Real Options Approach to Project Selection and its Application to NASA’s Small Business Innovation Research Program

We consider an important class of research and development (RD and (2) the investments are staggered in multiple stages, with relatively modest early support and higher subsequent funding for a subset of the projects initially selected. In this paper, we present a real options method to evaluate a portfolio of proposals in each stage. The proposals are characterized by a numerical value for each of several factors relevant to the awarding entity. Our methodology is flexible enough to consider additional factors or funding constraints. Its limitation is computational, depending on the number of dimensions (or factors) under consideration. Yet, numerical methods permit expansion of the dimensionality of the analysis. We apply this methodology to a time series of data from the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program of NASA. A key factor in the assessment is the technology readiness level (TRL), estimated by the selection team for each project upon acceptance and evaluated again at the end of each stage. Furthermore, we demonstrate the flexibility of our methodology by proposing different specifications and tradeoffs, like the possibility to favor “microfirms” (fewer than 10 employees), critical for job creation; or increasing the number of proposals funded in the first stage. These findings illustrate the use of this model in management of public and private technology portfolios.

Photovoltaic power purchase agreement valuation under real options approach

• A PPA business model is assessed under the Colombian renewable energies law. • PV investments are feasible when tax benefits are considered into the model. • ROA shows that is better to delay the investment under current market conditions. • Low execution of PV projects under Law 1715 is explained in the ROA approach. Renewable energies are an alternative to explore new business models in Colombia, especially when the new regulation associated with Law 1715 is considered. In this work the financial feasibility of a power purchase agreement (PPA) that uses photovoltaic energy is analyzed from the perspective of a non-traditional investor. In this paper, the financial feasibility of a PPA business was analyzed considering some of the benefits offered by Law 1715 through the use of discounted cash flows and real option analysis. The results show that tax benefits (included on Law 1715) improve the feasibility of this business models in Colombia, nevertheless, the defer option value suggest the convenience of delaying the investment. This work contributes to the analysis of the effect of the renewable energy policy incentives and the development of new business models based on renewable energies and the analysis of decisions that help include photovoltaic energy in Colombia.

Business valuation strategy for new hydroponic farm development – a proposal towards sustainable agriculture development in United Arab Emirates

PurposeThis study aims to evaluate a hydroponic farm (through nutrient film technique) while considering uncertainty, sustainability and the system's utility in the dominant desert geography. The idea of the hydroponic farm is to allow individuals/businesses to grow plants. Given the geographical condition, the hydroponic system may be useful in the Gulf context and may lead to food security and sustainability. Additionally, the UAE government has initiated several support schemes that can be availed for investing in such businesses that can contribute to the nation's food security.Design/methodology/approachThe hydroponic farm is evaluated using the net present value and real options approach. The authors studied five scenarios: 1. business as usual, 2. 50% subsidy on initial investment through Khalifa funding, 3. 4% premium, 4. Subsidy plus premium and 5. solar panel installation with bore well.FindingsAs per the assumptions and data usage, all the scenarios shows a positive net present value (NPV); Nevertheless, scenarios 4 and 5 report the significant highest net present and delay value.Research limitations/implicationsThis study has environmental, economic and social implications. Lower imports indirectly lead to lower carbon footprints. The local production of food ensures higher employability in the sector and increase in local consumption. Additionally, fresh food consumption is directly associated to good health.Practical implicationsSupportive policies such as subsidies through Khalifa funding may accelerate the expansion of such projects through domestic and foreign investments. One of the important takeaway from the study is to invest in the training of the workforce.Social implicationsGiven the geographical condition, the UAE usually depends on food imports. If the hydroponic farms become popular, the residents will have access to fresh vegetables and fruits. Higher engagement in agriculture activities also ensures a significant increase in agriculture-related businesses and higher employability.Originality/valueThe study adds novelty to the literature because the effect of Khalifa funding and investment analysis on solar (wells) has not been evaluated in any hydroponic studies. We presented the results with tornado graphs using NPV risk and real options approach in the Gulf context. The study represents functional scenarios that were previously not found in the literature.