Real Interest Research Articles

Legal regulation of price monopoly on e-commerce platforms

With the advancement of internet technology and the widespread adoption of high-speed network technologies such as 5G, e-commerce platforms have become the primary channels for everyday shopping. However, issues such as "big data price discrimination" and predatory pricing have emerged during their development, leading to price monopolies that harm the real economy and public interest. This study analyzes the legal regulatory framework, fundamental principles, regulatory measures, and their advantages and disadvantages concerning price monopoly on e-commerce platforms. It further identifies the factors influencing the effectiveness of legal regulation and the challenges faced. Based on this analysis, the study proposes recommendations such as improving legal frameworks, strengthening law enforcement and supervision, enhancing technological capabilities, and promoting industry self-discipline, making it a topic of significant practical relevance.

Intertemporal coordination mechanism: Austrian insights on market coordination through time

This paper explores temporal coordination mechanisms in market economies through the lens of Austrian Capital Theory, emphasizing how interest rates facilitate the alignment of complex intertemporal production plans across dispersed market participants. The study addresses the challenge of coordinating heterogeneous capital goods over time, a critical issue in dynamic economic systems where production spans multiple stages and horizons. Through a rigorous theoretical analysis and an extensive literature review, the research investigates the role of market processes in achieving this coordination, with a particular focus on how monetary policy influences these mechanisms. The analysis reveals that interest rates act as vital signals, aggregating dispersed knowledge and guiding entrepreneurial decisions to align production structures with consumers’ time-preferences. However, monetary interventions, such as interest rate manipulations, are shown to distort these signals systematically, contributing to malinvestment—where resources are misallocated to unsustainable projects—and overconsumption during business cycles. Empirical evidence from the 2002–2009 period, including the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary expansion, illustrates these effects, highlighting how negative real interest rates (2003–2005) falsified economic calculations, inflating household net worth by $21.7 trillion while reducing savings rates to below 1% by 2005, only to collapse by $13 trillion in 2008. This research synthesizes Austrian insights with emerging technological developments, particularly Web 3.0 technologies and decentralized systems like smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi), which may enhance market coordination by reducing reliance on central intermediaries and improving knowledge transmission. The originality lies in bridging classical economic theory with modern technological paradigms, offering a framework to assess how decentralized innovations can preserve Austrian principles of entrepreneurial discovery and spontaneous order. This theoretical analysis contributes to understanding the interplay between monetary policy, technology, and market dynamics, providing a foundation for future empirical studies on decentralized economic coordination.

An empirical investigation into dynamics of growth of Indian economy impacted by public and private sector investment: Is there evidence of crowding out effect?

This study examines the dynamic effects of public and private investments on India’s economic growth, focusing on disaggregating public sector investments into infrastructure and non-infrastructure Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). Key questions include: How do public infrastructure and non-infrastructure investments impact economic and private sector growth? What roles do Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), labour force participation, and the real interest rate play in shaping economic growth? The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze 40 years of macroeconomic data from 1980–81–2019–2020, offering insights into both short- and long-term effects. Findings reveal a crowding-out effect of public infrastructure investment on private investment in the short term but a crowding-in effect in the long run. FDI, labour participation, and the real interest rate significantly influence GDP growth, confirming their roles as critical drivers of economic expansion. Disaggregating public investments shows infrastructure and non-infrastructure investments play distinct roles in shaping economic outcomes. This study contributes by addressing the gap in understanding how different types of public investments affect private sector activity in India and broadens investment analysis by incorporating FDI, labour participation, and the real rate of interest, offering new evidence for research and policy formulation.

The Influence of Fintech and Monetary Policy on Financial Stability in Indonesia

The decline in financial system stability has negative consequences for the economy as a whole, such as declining economic growth, increasing political and social instability, increasing poverty rates, and so on. Therefore, research is needed to determine the appropriate policies to improve the stability of the Indonesian financial system. This study aims to examine the influence of fintech and monetary policy on the stability of the Indonesian financial system from 1982-2019. The method used is Vector Autoregression (VAR). The results of this study conclude that shocks that occur in gross domestic product (GDP), inflation (INF), exchange rates (KURS) and service features (FL) have a positive and significant impact on the stability of the Indonesian financial system. Meanwhile, shocks that occur in the amount of money in circulation (JUB), real interest rates (SBR), ease of use (KP) and information security risk (RKI) have a negative and significant impact on the stability of the Indonesian financial system.

Kaleidoscopic Patterns of Politics in Latin America

Latin America continues to provide a fertile hunting ground for students of comparative politics. There is plentiful variation between, within, and across countries and subsectors. Yet, there are also shared scope conditions, cultural and institutional commonalities, and region-wide interactions and demonstration effects. There are some areas where comparisons can be based on either the “most similar” or the “most different” system design, but most causal variables of real interest are imprecise, unstable, and mutually interactive. They often operate within discontinuous and unstable political systems that evade mechanistic modeling. Temporal discontinuities and compartmentalized sectors can be so prevalent that “kaleidoscopic” patterns may seem more typical than smoothly institutionalized regularities or predictable convergences.

Strategies for DFI in the Caribbean and Latin America under Trade Liberalization [2009-2022

This paper determined the differential impacts of factors that affect inward direct foreign investment [DFI] in the Caribbean and Latin America. The variables considered explained 65 % and 66% of the variations in DFI in the Caribbean and Latin America. Of these variables, the capital to labor ratio in the infrastructure group, private sector access to credit in the human capital/private sector group, and the exchange rates in the trade policy group had a stronger positive impact on DFI in the Caribbean than in Latin America. Of the production sector variables, the agriculture sectors had a greater impact than the service on DFI over the [mining and construction] sector. The real interest rate in the monetary/fiscal policy group and the tax on trade in the trade policy group had a more detrimental impact in the Caribbean than in Latin America. In Latin America, the market size in the market group has a greater positive impact on DFI than in the Caribbean, and of the production sectors, the impact of manufacturing was greater impact than the service sector over the other [mining and construction] sector. DFI in the Caribbean has a stronger negative correlation with carbon dioxide emissions in the Caribbean and in Latin America, the political rights variable was more detrimental.

Testing the equilibrium path of exchange rates, monetary policy, and trade balance in the Türkiye

In this study, we examine the impulse responses of the trade balance to real exchange rates, national income, relative prices, and relative policy interest rate shocks in Türkiye between 2000-Q1 and 2024-Q2. Our empirical findings reveal that contractionary monetary policy improves the trade balance. In addition, these policies reduce national income, create an appreciation in the real exchange rate, and stabilize relative prices; in this respect, our findings are consistent with traditional neo-Keynesian synthesis macroeconomic theories. However, contrary to traditional theory, it is observed that increases in real exchange rates and relative prices do not create the expected improvement effects on the trade balance. However, in the case of Türkiye, it has been observed that increases in exchange rates and fluctuations in relative prices do not create the expected effect on foreign trade. In this context, our study provides evidence that monetary policies are effective tools for the trade balance, exchange rate, national income, and relative prices in Türkiye. In this respect, the effect of real exchange rates and relative prices on trade balance mechanism is theoretically insignificant. The study reveals that monetary policies in Turkey are more effective on the trade balance through the income channel. In other words, monetary policies shape the trade balance through impact with national income. While contractionary monetary policies reduce national income, local demand and production also decrease, which limits import demand. As a result, domestic demand shrinks, the foreign trade deficit decreases, and the trade balance improves. However, the effect of changes in exchange rates and relative prices on the trade balance is limited, which shows that foreign trade of Türkiye is largely dependent on income levels and domestic economic dynamics. From a broader perspective, our study finds evidence monetary shocks affect the trade balance mechanism mostly through income channel transmission but are not supported price channel mechanism narrative.

The Effectiveness and Efficiency of the New Public Policies

In this paper we deal with the recent (1995-2023) Federal Reserve operated monetary policies, which were two unprecedented and distinct monetary policy regimes. The inflation stabilization era (1995-2008) and the zero-interest rate era (December 15, 2008-December 15, 2015) and again (March 15, 2020-March 15, 2022). These different monetary policy regimes provided various outcomes for interest rates, financial markets, inflation, cost of living, employment, international trade, and real economic growth. Then, a new fiscal policy was imposed in 2021. Some of the important, but not so beneficial results are that monetary policy appears to be able to affect long-term real interest rates, risk, the prices of the financial assets (bubbles), inflation, and very little the real economic growth. The Fed’s interest rate target was set during these nine years at 0% to 0.25%. It has created a low level of long-term interest rates and the negative real rate of interest (cost of capital), due to double digit inflation. The evidence suggests that these public policies are not very effective; they have created a new bubble in the financial market, perpetuated inflation, a redistribution of wealth from risk-averse savers to banks and risk-taker speculators, and a huge social cost (bail-in and bail-out cost). This monetary policy has increased the risk (RP) to the risk-averse depositors by making the real rate of interest negative. The effects on growth and employment of both public policies (monetary and fiscal) were gradual, small, and questionable, due to exaggerated liquidity, outsourcing, unfair trade policies, the suspicious COVID-19 pandemic, liberalism, the obsession with the “environment”, new wrong ideologies, which increased the cost of production and generated enormous deficits and debts. Keywords: Monetary Policy, Central Banks and Their Policies, Money and Interest Rates, Financial Markets and the Macro-economy, Model Evaluation and Testing, Social Welfare

Determinants of China’s GDP Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variable

This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, and various macroeconomic factors on GDP growth in China over the period 1982–2022. By Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research investigates the dynamic interplay between GDP growth and fifteen independent variables, including FDI, exports, trade, total debt, and real interest rates. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirms the stationarity of the data at first difference. The ARDL model results indicate significant long-term impacts of some variables, particularly the current account balance, exports, and merchandise trade. Short-run dynamics revealed that increased FDI and real interest rates positively affect GDP growth, while increased debt, exports, and final consumption have negative effects. The ARDL bounds test confirms a long-run relationship among the variables. Diagnostic checks show no issues with normality, heteroskedasticity, or serial correlation. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable evidence for policymakers to formulate effective economic policies, promoting sustained growth and stability in China’s rapidly evolving economy.

Do Households Substitute Intertemporally? 10 Structural Shocks That Suggest Not

I combine microdata on the intertemporal marginal propensity to consume with 10 structural macro shocks to identify the role of intertemporal substitution in consumption behavior. Although some of the structural shocks that I examine lead to large and persistent changes in real interest rates---which in many models would induce a large intertemporal substitution effect---I find no evidence that households shift the timing of their consumption in response to these interest rate changes. Indeed, changes to the expected path of income explain almost all the aggregate consumption response, leaving no role for intertemporal substitution.

An empirical study on impact of Real interest rates and stock market Volatility on Gold prices in the US

An empirical study on impact of Real interest rates and stock market Volatility on Gold prices in the US

Comparison of the four co-created interventions to improve snacking and physical activity behaviour in European adolescents: the SEEDS project

BackgroundNew approaches involving adolescents in designing and implementing interventions are an opportunity to improve healthy lifestyles. This study aims to describe and analyse the differences and similarities between the four country-specific (Greece, Spain, The Netherlands and the United Kingdom) co-created interventions through a Makeathon by adolescents from the European Science Engagement to Empower aDolescentS (SEEDS) project, to tackle unhealthy behaviours. Also, it aims to determine if the barriers/facilitators identified in previous focus groups were addressed in the interventions.MethodsThis comparative design study describes and analyses the differences and similarities among the four co-created interventions from the SEEDS project, which is a cluster-randomised controlled trial using a citizen science approach that actively involves participants in all steps of the scientific process. Two of the relevant steps are the definition of the barriers and facilitators by focus groups and the co-design of the interventions by Makeathons. The interventions co-created in each country related to healthy snacking and physical activity (PA) practice are described using the Template for Intervention Description and Replication (TIDieR) with some extra information about the country context (barriers and facilitators).ResultsThe four interventions have some points in common: type of activities per behaviour (methodology used), face-to-face activities, school hours implementation, and external professionals, teachers, or researchers as providers. However, the difficulties in comparing the interventions are the high diversity of activities and activity frequency among the four countries. About barriers, 2 of 3 modifiable barriers to healthy snacking behaviour and 4 of 6 modifiable barriers to PA and sedentary behaviour were addressed in the intervention, but 6 of 12 barriers to PA seemed not feasible for schools and not address in the intervention. Regarding facilitators, focusing on PA and sedentary behaviour, two of the four facilitators identified and focused on healthy snacking behaviour, and only one of the four facilitators identified was addressed in the interventions.ConclusionsIn four co-created interventions by adolescent ambassadors, most of the barriers identified were addressed whereas the facilitators were not enough addressed. Thus, more effort is needed to completely adapt the intervention to the real interest of adolescents. Future research needs to confirm the SEEDS intervention effect and impact on the desired behaviour.Trial registrationNum. NCT05002049; Date: 2021-08-12.

Determinants of discount rates, capitalisation rates and growth rates

PurposeThis paper analyses the determinants of key inputs for the explicit discounted cash flow (DCF) or the implicit capitalisation models, namely the discount rates and the capitalisation rates. We also study the factors affecting the implied growth rate of the net operating income (NOI).Design/methodology/approachWe make use of a rich database for the commercial real estate market in the US that covers a long time period (2002–2024) and over 60 metropolitan markets. Given that the figures are appraisal-based, we use a common desmoothing approach and analyse the determinants of discount rates, capitalisation rates and growth rates using regression analysis.FindingsOn average, the discount rate in gateway markets is 89 basis points lower than in non-gateway markets. A similar difference is observed for capitalisation rates (93 basis points). Inflation has an immediate negative impact on capitalisation and discount rates due to the delayed adjustment of the rental income, but the effect turns positive over time. With a lag, real GDP growth reduces both rates, as expectations of economic growth reduce risk premia. Real interest rates consistently increase capitalisation, discount and growth rates through higher borrowing costs and portfolio reallocations.Practical implicationsThe investment method to valuation is widely used in practice. By shedding additional light on the determinants of key inputs when using the explicit DCF of implicit capitalisation models, namely the discount and capitalisation rates, the results of this study should provide important information to appraisers and policymakers.Originality/valueThis paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of key inputs needed when appraising a commercial real estate property with an income approach. In particular, it not only explores the impacts of macroeconomic variables on discount and capitalisation rates but also those of various types of properties. As such, the results of this study should have important implications in practice.

The logic of the “reverse account”: real estate profitability and public interest in the PIU Vila Leopoldina-Villa-Lobos urban project in São Paulo

This paper investigates changes in the logic underpinning the use of urban incentives in the form of inclusive housing policies, relating the relevant literature to the case study of the Vila Leopoldina-Villa-Lobos Urban Intervention Project (PIU-VL) in São Paulo-SP. The case reveals a shift in the mechanisms of municipal financing in which the traditional model of capturing the surplus value calculated from the available building potential of the territory has been transformed into an “inverse account”, in which the cost of executing public interest interventions (primarily housing) becomes the amount of surplus value to be captured. The paper concludes that the “inverse account” aligns with the dynamics of public-private partnerships, poses risks of subordinating public interest to the logics of the real estate and finance, and is structured around private real estate profitability not only as a foundational element, but above all, as a limiting factor for public-interest interventions, thereby weakening the commitments of the public authorities toward the affected population.

Determinants of Residential Property Price in Selected Asian Countries: A Sys-GMM Approach

This study analyzes the determinants of residential property prices in 13 selected Asian countries. Key variables include the residential property price index, GDP per capita reflecting economic conditions, real interest rates impacting borrowing costs, inflation affecting purchasing power), population growth influencing housing demand, energy consumption reflecting demand pressures, and the Gini Index measuring income inequality. The research employs the System Generalized Method of Moments (Sys-GMM) for dynamic analysis of these endogenous variables. The results indicate that property prices are significantly influenced by prior price levels. Furthermore, GDP per capita, inflation, and population growth positively affect property prices, underscoring the roles of economic growth and demographic factors in shaping the property market. Higher GDP growth enhances household purchasing power, while population growth increases housing demand. Conversely, energy consumption negatively impacts property prices, reflecting cost pressures from rising energy demand. Interestingly, the real interest rate and Gini index do not significantly influence residential property prices, suggesting these factors may not directly affect price dynamics in the studied countries. These findings emphasize the need for policies that support economic stability and sustainable growth to enhance property market competitiveness. Policymakers should prioritize energy efficiency and inclusive economic development to ensure long-term resilience in the property sector. Sustainable economic policies are essential to strengthen the region's property market and effectively manage growing energy demands.

Russia's movement towards a modern monetary theory

Subject. This article discusses the issues of regulating the volume of money supply. Objectives. The article aims to analyze the changes in some macro-financial indicators. Methods. For the study, I used a correlation and regression analysis. Results. The article finds that the volume of loans granted to organizations, individuals and credit institutions exceeds the volume of deposits of individuals and funds of legal entities attracted by credit institutions. The article also reveals a significant increase in the debt of the non-financial sector and households. Conclusions. The critical growth in the volume of the federal loan bond market and the real interest rate indicates the implementation of the main provisions of modern monetary theory.

PERCEPTION OF PUBLIC INSECURITY AND HOUSING PRICES IN MEXICO

This paper evaluates the impact of the perception of public insecurity on housing prices in Mexico. To that end, two dynamic panel data models involving 27 Mexican cities are assembled. The first model corresponds to the pre-pandemic period, while the second to the pandemic period. The specification of the model is based on a supply- and demand-side approach, whereas its estimation relies on the Arellano-Bond technique to address endogeneity problems. The evidence is consistent in showing that: 1) Housing prices fall as the perception of public insecurity rises, and 2) higher construction costs and income levels raise home prices. Moreover, the provision of public infrastructure and the real mortgage interest rate generate demand- and supply-side effects, so the net effect of these two variables on housing prices is negative before the pandemic and positive during the pandemic. Finally, housing prices involve a strong inertial component.

STUDY OF THE COLEOPTERA (CERAMBYCIDAE AND LUCANIDAE) FOUND IN THE UPPER BASIN OF DESNĂȚUI RIVER

The territory under study is located in the Desnătui basin, between the localities of Carpen and Voița. The area where the study was carried out is located in the western part of Dolj county and southeastern Mehedinți county, at a distance of 40 km from Craiova and 25 km from Vânju Mare. The researched area totals 200 km2, having the appearance of a rectangle from the Câmpia Oltenia relief unit and is individualized both by the presence of zonal and azonal soils, but also by the high temperatures and the low amount of precipitation recorded during the warm period of the year. This area has been of particular interest for research over time, due to the characteristics listed previously. The vegetation in the Desnățui basin is characteristic of the Oltenia Plain and Jiului Piedmont, with some particularities conferred by relief, altitude, climate, nature of rocks and soil. Following the researches, the following types of habitats were identified: 91E0* Alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (Alno-Padion, Alnion incanae, Salicion albae), 92A0 Salix alba and Populus alba galleries, 91M0 Pannonian-Balkanic turkey oak-sessile oak forests. This area represents a real scientific interest, being an area not studied until now. Following research in the forest habitats of the Desnățui river basin, we have identified six species of the Coleoptera (Cerambycidae and Lucanidae). In the research area of ​​this forest the most common species are: Lucanus cervus (Linnaeus, 1758), Morimus funereus (Mulsant, 1863) and Cerambyx cerdo (Linnaeus 1758), Chlorophorus figuratus (Scopoli, 1763), Pachytodes erraticus (Dalman, 1817), Stenopterus rufus (Linnaeus, 1767), Stenurella bifasciata (O. F. Müller, 1776), Stictoleptura cordigera (Fussli, 1775), Plagyonotus arcuatus (Linnaeus, 1758).

Did the Bank of England’s Quantitative Easing Programme Become Fiscally Wasteful?

Abstract In the period of central bank independence since 1997, the level of UK nominal interest rates has been driven almost entirely by real rates as reflected in the market for index-linked government bonds. These bonds offered a yield of + 4% in the 1980s, falling steadily to below -2% in late 2019, and only recovered somewhat in 2022, with long bond yields closely following short bond yields. The Bank of England doubled its purchases of bonds through its Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in 2020–21 at significantly negative real interest rates, taking up almost all of the increased supply associated with the massively increased budget deficit during the Covid-19 pandemic. Neither the Bank nor the Government bothered about the likely eventual fiscal cost, which rose quite steeply at the margin to the extent that the QE purchases had their intended effect of depressing bond yields. Much, but not all, of the blame for this lies with the Government, since under independence it is the Government that defines what the Bank should take into account in making its decisions about monetary policy. The issue of the eventual fiscal cost of QE is also of concern in the Euro Area and the United States.

The moderating role of temperature on the labor productivity-RMG exports nexus in an emerging economy: controlling real interest rate and inflation

The moderating role of temperature on the labor productivity-RMG exports nexus in an emerging economy: controlling real interest rate and inflation