Loan Rates Research Articles

Regressive Mortgage Credit Redistribution in the Post-Crisis Era

Abstract We document four secular trends about U.S. mortgage origination by traditional and FinTech lenders after the 2008-2009 financial crisis. First, since 2011, the overall number, size, and approval rate of small and medium-sized loans have been decreasing over time, relative to large loans. Second, the largest lenders redistribute their lending the most. Third, this loan-size redistribution of credit increases in the size of the lender. Fourth, the effects are stronger for mortgages further away from the conforming loan limit(s) in both directions. We argue that the supply of credit drives these secular trends, and we assess several potential economic mechanisms.

Does Rural Credit Mediate Vulnerability Under Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks? Empirical Evidence from Vietnam Using a Multilevel Model

This study explores the relationship between the uptake of credit and household vulnerability in rural Vietnam in terms of two main vulnerability indicators—vulnerability as expected poverty (VEP) and vulnerability to food poverty (VFP)—using data from the 2012 Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey. VEP and VFP are examined under two decompositions, idiosyncratic vulnerability and covariate vulnerability, by constructing a multilevel structure model. The analysis accounts for two critical problems (selection bias and endogeneity) through an endogenous switching regression model. Generally, the results indicate the positive impacts of credit uptake on poverty alleviation and VEP reduction. Nevertheless, credit uptake increases VFP. Noticeably, compared to other categories of credit, productive credit is found to be more pronounced in reducing either idiosyncratic or covariate vulnerability. There is also suggestive evidence that although credit has positive effects overall, taking on either formal or semiformal credit has negative impacts on both poverty and vulnerability reduction. Hence, towards formal credit, government policies should concentrate more on credit costs and support preferential loan rates for poor rural households for productive purposes.

The financial impact of cancer on Canadian young adults.

To explore the financial impact of cancer in young adults (YAs) compared to matched non-cancer peers. Five hundred seventy-five YAs from the Young Adults with Cancer in their Prime (YACPRIME) studyreported on out-of-pocket cancer costs and missed work. YA cancer survivors were compared to matched peers without cancer on key financial indices based on current age (< 35 vs. 35 + years) and time since diagnosis (< 5 vs. 5 + years). Descriptive statistics, Chi-square tests, and prevalence ratios (PR) were used to compare groups on financial variables. Almost 60% of YA survivors spent at least $100/month on cancer-related expenses, and 49% missed at least one year of work. YA survivors were more likely to have outstanding credit card ((< 35 (PR = 1.37, p = 0.001); 35 + (PR = 1.33, p = 0.001)) and line of credit (< 35 (PR = 1.42, p = 0.008); 35 + (PR = 1.27, p = 0.016)) balances. Home ownership was higher among non-cancer peers ((< 35: PR = 1.42, p < 0.001); 35 + (PR = 1.69, p < 0.001); < 5 years (PR = 1.39, p < 0.001); 5 + years (PR = 1.41, p = 0.005)). YA survivors were more likely to not own assets ((< 5 years (PR = 2.25, p < 0.001); 5 + years (PR = 2.25, p = 0.004)). Those diagnosed within 5 years had higher rates of payday loans (PR = 3.91, p = 0.021). While exploratory, results suggest that YAs are disadvantaged compared to their peers in type and value of assets owned and debts carried. Survivorship care plans for YA survivors should include resources to manage the financial impacts of cancer.

Credit risk in the microfinance industry: The role of gender affinity

ABSTRACT This study explores the role played by gender in lending transactions and specifically its effects on the loan portfolio credit risk of microfinance institutions (MFIs). Using a multicountry data set of developing countries, where MFIs mainly operate, the analysis shows that a higher proportion of female loan officers increases the loan portfolio at risk. Nonetheless, we also find that this positive relationship is negatively mediated by the gender affinity between female loan officers and female borrowers. Gender affinity suggests that female loan officers are more likely to lend to female borrowers, and this reduces the default rate of loans offered by MFIs.

What Drives Bank Peformance?

&lt;ns3:p&gt;Focusing on some key metrics of bank performance, such as revenues and loan charge-off rates, we estimate the fraction of the observed variation in these metrics that can be attributed to changes in economic conditions. Macroeconomic factors can explain the preponderance of the fluctuations in charge-off rates. By contrast, bank-specific, idiosyncratic factors account for a sizable share of the variation in bank revenues. These results point to importance of bank-specific business models as a driver of performance.&lt;/ns3:p&gt;

Bank Concentration and Product Market Competition

Abstract This paper documents a link between bank concentration and markups in nonfinancial sectors. We exploit concentration-increasing bank mergers and variation in banks’ market shares across industries and show that higher credit concentration is associated with higher markups and that high-market-share lenders charge lower loan rates. We argue that this is due to the greater incidence of competing firms sharing common lenders that induce less aggressive product market behavior among their borrowers, thereby internalizing potential adverse effects of higher rates. Consistent with our conjecture, the effect is stronger in industries with competition in strategic substitutes where negative product market externalities are greatest.

Predicting take-up of home loan offers using tree-based ensemble models: A South African case study

We investigated different take-up rates of home loans in cases in which banks offered different interest rates. If a bank can increase its take-up rates, it could possibly improve its market share. In this article, we explore empirical home loan price elasticity, the effect of loan-to-value on the responsiveness of home loan customers and whether it is possible to predict home loan take-up rates. We employed different regression models to predict take-up rates, and tree-based ensemble models (bagging and boosting) were found to outperform logistic regression models on a South African home loan data set. The outcome of the study is that the higher the interest rate offered, the lower the take-up rate (as was expected). In addition, the higher the loan-to-value offered, the higher the take-up rate (but to a much lesser extent than the interest rate). Models were constructed to estimate take-up rates, with various modelling techniques achieving validation Gini values of up to 46.7%. Banks could use these models to positively influence their market share and profitability.&#x0D; Significance:&#x0D; &#x0D; We attempt to answer the question: What is the optimal offer that a bank could make to a home loan client to ensure that the bank meets the maximum profitability threshold while still taking risk into account? To answer this question, one of the first factors that needs to be understood is take-up rate. We present a case study – with real data from a South African bank – to illustrate that it is indeed possible to predict take-up rates using various modelling techniques.&#x0D;

Financial Technology Disruption in Indonesian Banking: From Loan and Interest Rate Perspectives

The presence of Fintech has contributed to the changes in many industries in Indonesia. Among others, banking industry has been one of the most resilient to alterations and skeptical to disruption by Fintech. Using the data of banking industry covering national banks, regional banks, national private banks and foreign banks, from 2009 to 2019, this study aims to examine the impact of interest rate in pre-Fintech period compared to the impact in post-Fintech period. This study sets 2016 as the time threshold. Using panel data regression model, the findings suggest that the power of interest rate in changing the level of loans is lower in the post-Fintech than in the pre-Fintech.Additionally, in many cases, the power is even statistically insignificant in the post-Fintech. Reforms in banking loan regulation is necessary to respond to the presence of Fintech.

Excessive focus on risk? Non‐performing loans and efficiency of microfinance institutions

AbstractMicrofinance is a banking market in which operating costs are high, while non‐performing loans (NPLs) rates are low. While the existing literature tends to explain that the high operating costs arise from the provision of small loans, we argue that excessive efforts to control loan losses can also be a contributing factor. Therefore, this article investigates the relationship between NPLs and the cost efficiency of microfinance institutions (MFIs). Using a unique global sample of rated MFIs and applying stochastic frontier analysis together with Granger‐causality test and generalized method of moments (GMM), we find, in contrast to positive linear relationship evidence in commercial banking studies, a nonlinear (U‐shape) relationship between operating costs and NPLs. This implies that MFIs need to balance their cost efficiency with asset quality.

Identifying credit demand, financial intermediation, and supply of funds shocks: A structural VAR approach

In this paper, we identify three exogenous shocks to credit market: demand for credit, supply of funds into the financial system, and the willingness to lend of financial institutions (financial intermediation), and also, determine the contribution of these shocks to fluctuations in the credit market and overall economic activity. We estimate a structural vector autoregression model where the three credit shocks are identified with a set of sign restrictions motivated by a simple partial equilibrium model of financial intermediation. We find that the credit demand shock explains significantly the variations in the long-term loan rate proxied by the Moody’s Baa corporate bond yield, while the supply of funds shock contributes to most of the fluctuations in the short-term commercial paper rate. The financial intermediation shock drives most of the fluctuations in the quantity of loans as well as the spread between the Baa and commercial paper rates. Of the credit shocks, we find that the financial intermediation shock has the largest impact on real economic activity. In fact, our analysis implies that the sharp decline in output during the 2007–2009 financial crisis is largely attributable to the financial intermediation shock, along with shocks originating outside of the financial system.

Para Arzının Konut Kredilerine Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği

Housing loans are one of the most important instruments that banks offer to customers. Of course, monetary politicians have always viewed these types of loans as an economic intervention. Therefore, whenever an expansionary monetary policy is to be followed in a country, housing loans have become an indispensable monetary policy tool. As a result, when there is an increasing expansion in monetary policy, the existence and attractiveness of such loans has always been a product of this economic understanding. Banks have offered mortgage loans from time to time with very low interest rates in order to stimulate the market. But, on the other hand, they have provided high rates of housing loans in periods when there was no economic stability, and in a sense, they have kept the market away from housing loans. Within the scope of this study, in line with the definitions of selected monetary aggregates, the Granger causality test will be used in analyzing the relationship between the money supply and housing loans from 2005 to 2019. In the first stage for the Granger causality test, the stationary levels of the series will be determined and the cointegration relationship between the series will be investigated. Causality analysis will be performed according to the findings obtained.

Limited Liability, Strategic Default and Bargaining Power

In this paper we examine the effects of limited liability on mortgage dynamics. While the literature has focused on default rates, renegotiation, or loan rates individually, we study them together as equilibrium outcomes of the strategic interaction between lenders and borrowers. We present a simple model of default and renegotiation where the degree of limited liability plays a key role in agents' strategies. We then use Fannie Mae loan performance data to test the predictions of the model. We focus on Metropolitan Statistical Areas that are crossed by a State border in order to exploit the discontinuity in regulation around the borders of States. As predicted by the model, we find that limited liability results in higher default rates and renegotiation rates. Regarding loan pricing, while the model predicts higher interest rates for limited liability loans, we find no such evidence in the Fannie Mae data. We further investigate this by using loan application data, which contains the interest rates on loans sold to private vs public investors. We find that private investors do price in the difference in ex-ante predictable default risk for limited liability loans. JEL Classification: D10, E40, G21, R20, R30

FINANCIAL COMPONENT OF ESTIMATION OF EFFICIENCY OF MANAGEMENT OF ENTERPRISE ON BASIS OF BSC

The current trends in the aircraft building market are highlighted and the transformation need of the management system from the industrial to the partner model of the aviation products manufacture are actualized. The prerequisites for the target approach usage to assessing the management effectiveness are substantiated. The research methodology based on the use of the balanced indicator system BSC and the author adapted model of the key indicators of the company's efficiency for assessing the management effectiveness of the aircraft building enterprise is proposed. Such indicator was defined the social responsibility of business — an integrated indicator of the value of the enterprise for the society in order to improve the quality of life. At forming of the system of evaluation indexes certainly main principles of their construction: simplicity and visibility of the indicator system; limited number of indicators; the ability to measure indicators; determining the impact of each indicator on the enterprise efficiency as a whole. In order to evaluate the financial component of achieving the long-term goals on the basis of the BSC model and within the financial policy of JSC «Motor Sich» the following indicators have been chosen: return on equity, turnover assets, value of capital, structure of equity capital, loan interest rate, market size, market companies share, sales profitability, net profit per one share, coefficient of gross change ratio, coefficient of production cost factor, coefficient of administrative expense ratio, coefficient of implementation costs and coefficient the ratio of net profit. Research results specify on the positive changing — increase on the enterprise of efficiency of management operating charges. The factors of their negative influence on the possibility of achieving the strategic goal of the enterprise have been determined on the basis of their calculation and quantitative data analysis: According to the criteria of the financial component of the activity of the aircraft building enterprise, trends of changes were determined and the depth of deterministic influence of the indicators of efficiency of JSC «Motor Sich».

The Impact of Population Aging on Housing Demand in China Based on System Dynamics

In recent years, the proportion of China’s elderly population is gradually increasing, and the real estate market is changing dramatically. Consequently the impact of population aging on housing demand has become increasingly prominent. On the theoretical basis of the relationship between population aging, family structure and housing demand, this paper firstly constructs a system dynamics model of the impact of population aging and family structure on housing demand in China. Then, the model is simulated, and several scenarios of population, family structure, and real estate policies are set up. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: China’s population will rise at first and then decrease, reaching a peak of 1.401 billion by 2023. As the proportion of elderly population increases, the degree of population aging is becoming increasingly serious. The size of the family will gradually shrink to 2.39 people per household in 2050. The housing demand will increase first and then decrease. Through the results of scenario simulation, this paper puts forward the following suggestion to effectively balance the housing demand in China: Completely relaxing family planning policies, imposing a real estate tax, canceling the pre-sale policy, and raising the loan rate.

Banks’ Interest Rate Setting and Transitions between Liquidity Surplus and Deficit

Assuming that a central bank is successful in steering money market interest rates, commercial banks’ loan rate setting behaviour is not expected to change during a transition between liquidity surplus and deficit. However, this logic does not hold if the interest rates for the lending and borrowing activities of an individual bank on the money market do not coincide. In this environment, it may be appropriate to adjust the loan rates when a bank transitions between liquidity surplus and deficit (i.e. switches between the benchmark money market rates). This strategy is fundamentally different from linking the loan rates to the average cost of funding (i.e. the average between retail and wholesale funding rates). The magnitude of such loan rate adjustment is limited by the (usually moderate) spread between the funding and investment money market rates.

Da li oligopolska pozicija banaka utiče na performanse poslovanja bankarskog sektora u Federaciji Bosne i Hercegovine?

The level of banking concentration has increased significantly in the banking sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of the successful completion of privatization, the formation of new banks, the slow transition and rapid liberalization. Rapid liberalization has introduced strong competition in the domestic banking sector on the one hand, while there has been an increased concentration of some larger banks in the system. The main goal of this research will be to analyze the correlation between the basic measures of the oligopolistic position of banks and their impact on improving or deteriorating the performance of domestic banks, such as return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and net interest margin (NIM). The survey period covers the years from 2008: Q1 to 2020: Q4 on a quarterly basis. The following variables were used as independent variables in the model: HHI market concentration index in the context of loans, share of foreign banks in the total ownership structure of banks (FB), bank size (BS) and growth rate of total loans (GRTL).The interdependence of variables in this study was tested via the OLS regression model. The results showed that the foreign-owned Banks (FB) variable has a positive impact on the variable return on Assets (ROA), while the variables bank size (BS) and market concentration index for loans (HHI) have a negative impact. The result also showed that the two variables the growth rate of total loans (GRTL) as well as foreign-owned banks (FB) have a positive impact on the variable return on equity (ROE), while the variables market concentration index for loans (HHI) and bank size (BS) have a negative effect. The third result is that the variable net interest margin (NIM) has the strongest positive impact on the two variables foreign-owned banks (FB) and credit growth rate (GRTL), while concentrations for credit placements (HHI) and bank size (BS) have a negative effect.

Heterogeneity in Corporate Debt Structures and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

We study how differences in the aggregate structure of corporate debt affect the transmission of monetary policy in a panel of euro area countries. We find that standard policy tightening shocks raise the cost of loans relative to corporate bonds. In economies with a high share of bond finance, the resultant rise in the overall cost of credit is less pronounced as a smaller portion of corporate debt is remunerated at the loan rate and firms further expand their reliance on bonds. In economies with a low share of bond finance, the rise in the cost of credit is reinforced by a shift in the composition of debt towards bank loans. As a consequence, a higher bond share goes along with a weaker transmission of short-term policy rate shocks to real activity. By contrast, the real effects of monetary policy shocks to longer-term yields strengthen with the share of bond finance in the economy. JEL Classification: E44, E52, G21, G23

Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Reversal Rate and Risk-Taking

This paper develops a simple analytical framework to study the impact of central bank policy-rate changes on banks’ credit supply and risk-taking incentives. Unobservable expost bank monitoring of loans creates an external-financing constraint, which determines bank leverage. Unobservable, costly ex-ante screening of borrowers determines the level of bank risk-taking. More risk-taking tightens the external-financing constraint. The policy rate affects the external-financing constraint because it affects both the return on outside investors’ alternative investments and loan rates. In a low rate environment, a policy-rate cut reduces bank funding costs less because of a zero lower bound (ZLB) on retail deposit rates. Bank risk-taking is a necessary but not sufficient for a policy-rate cut to become contractionary (reversal). Reversal can occur even though banks’ net-interest margins increase. Credit market competition plays an important role for the interplay of monetary policy and financing stability. When banks have market power, a policy-rate cut can increase lending and still lead to risk-taking. We use our analytical framework to discuss the literature on how monetary policy affects the credit supply of banks, with special emphasis on low and negative rates. JEL Classification: E44, E52, E58, G20, G21

Marketplace Lending: Matching Small Businesses with Specialized Fintech Lenders

Fintech promises improvements in access to credit for small businesses through more efficient search and better pricing. Using novel data from a marketplace platform of 115,000 loan offers from 46 online lenders I show that the primary contribution of fintech is not in precisely measuring and pricing risk, but rather in facilitating search between small firms and preferred-habitat lenders. Loan rate offers are largely unexplained by firm characteristics and differ substantially even for the same applicant. The dispersion in offers is largely explained by the fact that lenders have preferred habitats -- lending to borrowers of certain risk types and charging relatively uniform rates to all applicants. Interest rates sort borrowers such that the highest interest rate lenders match with firms that have been rejected by lenders with lower rates. This sorting leads to equilibrium loan rates that appear to be closely tied to the characteristics of the firm. The findings highlight the importance of marketplace platforms that reduce search frictions for firms seeking credit among lenders with distinct lending practices.

Oligopoly Banking, Risky Investment, and Monetary Policy

Oligopolistic competition in the banking sector and risk in the real economy are important characteristics of developed economies, but have so far mostly been abstracted from in monetary economics. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model of monetary policy transmission that incorporates both of these features and document that including them leads to important insights in our understanding of the transmission mechanism. Various equilibrium cases can occur, and policies have differing effects in these cases. We calibrate the model to the U.S. economy in 2016-2019 in order to study how changes in the degree of banking competition or the policy rate would have affected equilibrium outcomes. We find that doubling banking competition would have increased welfare by 1.02\%, but at the cost of increasing the probability of bank default from 0.02\% to 0.44\%. We further find that the policy rate was set optimally to minimize the probability of bank default, but that a decrease in the policy rate by 1pp would have increased welfare by 0.40\%. We also show that bank profits are increasing in the policy rate, in particular when interest rates are low. Thus, a 1pp reduction in the policy rate would have reduced profits per bank by 35.5\% in our calibrated economy. Finally, we document that monetary policy pass-through is incomplete under imperfect competition in the banking sector, as a change in the policy rate by 1pp leads to a change of only 0.92pp in the loan rate, while pass-through to the deposit rate is nearly complete for rate increases, but almost zero for rate reductions due to the zero-lower bound.