Loan Rates Research Articles

Developing Innovative Financing Scheme for Leveraging Energy Efficiency Deployment in Indonesia

Having great potential, a mechanism that can leverage private involvement in energy efficiency deployment should be developed in emerging markets such as Indonesia. This study aimed to formulate an implementable financial innovative scheme for leveraging energy efficiency deployment in the country. Scrutinizing relevant studies and interviewing relevant stakeholders such as the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Energy and the Financial Institution, we formulated a blended financial scheme for an energy efficiency project. Main stakeholders will include the scheme, including fund facilitator, trustee, custodian bank and energy user/energy service company. In our proposed scheme, Indonesia Environment Fund (IEF) is obtained the fund from the fund facilitator. IEF will act as a trustee that delivers funds for the Custodian Bank. The bank will disburse the fund to the feasible energy efficiency project or through an energy service company. In this scheme, since banks get lower interest rate funds from the trustee, they will disburse the fund to the customer with a lower interest rate than a commercial rate. Consumers utilize the fund for their energy efficiency projects. Utilizing a proposed scheme to an energy efficiency project case study, it is found that the proposed scheme potentially reduces the interest rate and leverages the project viability in a certain condition. Doing the sensitivity analysis by comparing interest rate and IRR (Internal Rate of Return) in several loan periods, we found that the shorter period of the loan and lower interest rate can improve projects feasibility. For instance, simulating a 5-year loan, it is found that reducing the interest rate from 12% to 7% could improve up to 2% IRR of the project case. Therefore, the scheme can catalyze private-sector investments mobilization for energy efficiency deployment in the country. Furthermore, it can support the country's energy security enhancement.

An investigation of the impacts of asset ratio policy on the banking system during the Covid-19 crisis in Turkey

PurposeThis paper provides a quantitative assessment of the “asset ratio” rule defined in Turkey as part of measures taken to stimulate the economy amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The main objective of the new rule was to boost credit growth in the economy and provide lending for credit-constrained households and firms that are in need. A secondary aim was to shift the denomination structure of the deposits toward domestic currency. Hence, the paper focus particularly on how the policy affected the growth rate of loans and the share of domestic deposits relative to foreign ones among the commercial banks. The policy was also heavily criticized due to the possibility that it will subjugate the banking system to excessive risk. The paper explore this possible impact by measuring how much the policy affected the default risk allowances in the banking system.Design/methodology/approachThe new policy required banks with deposits above a threshold level, i.e. large banks, to maintain a certain asset ratio. Banks with deposits below the threshold, i.e. small banks, were held exempt from it. The paper implement a difference-in difference methodology to assess the quantitative impacts of the asset ratio policy by taking large banks as the treatment group, and small banks as the control group.FindingsDifference-in-difference estimation results suggest that the asset ratio policy resulted in a 9.6% rise in loans and an 8.4% rise in government securities. Deposits also increased, with no significant change in their composition. The policy initially generated a 7% increase in the credit risk allowances of banks in the treatment group, which vanished in the following periods. Based on all these, the paper argue that the policy was successful in providing liquidity to the economy without jeopardizing the financial stability.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings of this study show that asset ratio policy is effective in increasing credit growth in countries with limited policy space such as Turkey. While saying this, the importance of the robust and prudent structure of the banking system in the economy should be underlined. Otherwise, the policy may have an unintended consequence of raising systemic risk. The policy suggestions also apply to advanced countries where the monetary policy has reached a natural limit due to the zero lower bound (ZLB). The ZLB problem encouraged these countries to use quantitative easing schemes in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis, just like the global financial crisis. However, it may take a long time to undo the effects of this policy on the balance sheets of central banks. In such cases, asset ratio policy can also be considered as an alternative tool for advanced economies notwithstanding the fact that the banking system should be prudent, well-capitalized and the country should have enough fiscal space. The main objective of the asset ratio policy was to help SMEs that were in urgent need of liquidity at the beginning of the crisis. The bank balance sheet data used in this paper does not contain information about the borrowers of the loans extended during the implementation of the policy. Analysis of this dimension using matched bank-firm level data will better demonstrate the success of the policy in achieving this goal. The paper address this as the main limitation of the paper and leave that analysis for future research.Originality/valueThis paper provides an important contribution to the literature by assessing a new unique policy whose objective is to stimulate loans and mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the economy. The policy in question is predicted to have effects on the asset and liability structure and risk exposure of the banking system in Turkey. The quantitative analysis in this study estimates these impacts and discusses the effectiveness of the new policy in providing a relief for firms and households in need. Whether or not the policy caused a disruption in the sound structure of the banking system in Turkey is another question addressed in the paper.

Prediction of Loan Rate for Mortgage Data: Deep Learning Versus Robust Regression

Prediction of Loan Rate for Mortgage Data: Deep Learning Versus Robust Regression

Interest rate risk and monetary policy normalisation in the euro area

A low interest rate environment is susceptible to sudden increases in policy rates and heightened interest rate risk (IRR). By using a sample of 81 euro area banks during the period 2014Q4-2018Q1 and a confidential supervisory measure of IRR, this paper identifies which bank-specific characteristics can amplify or weaken the impact of a 200 basis points positive shock in interest rates. We find that banks reliant on core deposits, that hold more floating-interest rate loans and that diversify their lending, either by sector or geography, are less exposed to a positive change in interest rates. Interestingly, we discover that banks that did not exploit the exceptional financing provided by the European Central Bank (ECB) reveal greater IRR exposure. These findings advance the debate on the impact of a possible return to a normalised monetary policy on the euro area banking sector.

The Informational Role of Ownership Networks in Bank Lending

AbstractThis article documents novel large-sample evidence on the informational role of interfirm ownership networks in bank lending. Using comprehensive loan-level data in China, we find that banks’ internal loan ratings at issuance predict subsequent delinquent events more accurately when borrowers are connected to banks’ existing customers via ownership networks. In post-issuance monitoring for delinquent loans, banks with access to ownership networks manage to downgrade their initial ratings before late payments. These findings suggest that ownership networks facilitate the transmission of private information for bank lending. Moreover, ownership networks are more important for transmitting information related to small and medium enterprises.

Does Public-Loan Management Matter for Sustainable Finance and Operation Risk?

Previous research indicates that small-loan financing is a highly complex process, particularly when public sources provide financial support. This study applies propensity score matching to improve the effectiveness of closer inspection systems. Specifically, it compares before and after implementing propensity score matching (PSM) in terms of closer inspection and operational risk. It also examines similarities and differences among individuals’ demographics regarding the default rate of small business loans. Data pertaining to 589,648 Sunshine Loan debtors are utilized to address the research questions. Results indicate that the default rate with closer inspection is 5.5% lower than without closer inspection. Furthermore, the default rate with operational risk is dramatically lower (15.4%) than that without operational risk. The PSM approach presented here thus illuminates opportunities and challenges in three strategic areas: (1) management of public funds, (2) effectiveness of both closer inspection and operational risk, and (3) risk management for individual borrower types.

Consumer loan rate dispersion and the role of competition: Evidence from Turkish banking industry

This paper investigates the degree of dispersion in the loan pricing of commercial banks and its association with competitive conditions in the banking industry of a large emerging economy. To quantify the lending rate variability in consumer loans, we utilize a new indexation mechanism exploiting a detailed bank-level dataset for the period January 2007–April 2020. With panel convergence methods, we show the existence of heterogeneity in long-term co-movements among banks' loan pricing, while periods following the tightening in financial conditions display short-term deviations from general tendencies as demonstrated by dispersion indices. Our empirical design also entails the construction of competition indicators for aggregated and consumer segment-based credit market developments. Quantile regression results validate that the improvements in industry competition are related to the lower level of lending rate dispersion in housing and vehicle segments in a statistically significant manner, whereas an opposite relationship is evident for general-purpose loans.

Assessment and influencing factors analysis of economic system vulnerability of the Belt and Road Initiative countries.

Economic vulnerability is an important indicator to measure regional coordination, health and stability. Despite the importance of vulnerabilities, this is the first study that presents 26 indicators selected from the dimensions of the domestic economic system, external economic system and financial system in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. A quantitative analysis is conducted to analyze the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity of vulnerability of the economic subsystems and the comprehensive economic system of the BRI countries and the main influencing factors of the comprehensive economic system vulnerability (CESV) are identified based on obstacle degree model. The results show that the CESV of the East Asia, South Asia and ASEAN countries are lower than that of the Middle Eastern Europe, Central Asia and West Asia countries. The CESV of the BRI countries are generally in the middle level and the average vulnerability index of highly vulnerable countries is twice as much as that of lowly vulnerable countries. In addition, in terms of the vulnerability of the three subsystems, the spatial distribution of vulnerability of the domestic economic system (DESV) and financial system (FSV) is basically consistent with the spatial distribution pattern of CESV, both of which are low in East Asia and South Asia and high in West Asia and Central Asia. While, the vulnerability of external economic system (EESV) shows a different spatial pattern, with vulnerability of West Asia, Central Asia and ASEAN higher than that of East Asia and South Asia. The main obstacle factors influencing the CESV of BRI countries include GDP growth rate, saving ratio, ratio of bank capital to assets, service industry level, industrialization level and loan rate. Therefore, the key way to maintain the stability and mitigate the vulnerability of the economic system of BRI countries is to focus on the macroeconomic development and operation, stimulate the economy and market vitality, promote the development of industries, especially the service and secondary industries, and optimize the economic structure, banking system and financial system.

Optimal loan contracting under policy uncertainty: Theory and international evidence

This paper provides comprehensive theoretical and empirical analyses on bank lending under macro-policy uncertainty. Our theory differentiates uncertainty from risk and endogenizes banks’ loan contracting under uncertainty. We show that banks demand a higher loan rate and grant a smaller loan size when uncertainty increases. To test our theoretical predictions, we construct a cross-country sample of syndicated loan contracts in 18 major economies over 2000–2015 and proxy the policy uncertainty with the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for the same objects and period time. Evidence confirms our theory. Fixed effects estimation and an instrumental variable estimation with the inverse distance weighted EPU as an instrument further corroborate with our results.

Informational switching costs, bank competition, and the cost of finance

This paper studies the links between competition in the lending market and spreads of bank loans in Brazil. Empirical evidence from private banks shows a positive relationship between market power, measured by the Lerner index, and the cost of finance, measured by loan spreads over the treasury curve. Moreover, information acquired through relationship lending is used differently by private and state-owned banks. On the one hand, private banks engage in a strategy of first competing fiercely for clients by offering a lower loan interest rate and later increasing rates as the relationship with the firm evolves, consistent with the holdup problem. On the other hand, state-owned banks reduce the spreads as they deepen their relationship with the firm, consistent with sharing of the informational benefits from their relationship.

Risks of long-term auto loans

Long-term auto loans have become more popular in the last decade, and most auto loans originated after 2013 have terms longer than five years. We find that the choice of long-term auto loans is associated with larger origination amounts, and borrowers of long-term auto loans tend to be more credit constrained. After controlling for borrower risk factors available from credit bureau data and macroeconomic conditions, we find that auto loans with terms beyond five years have higher delinquency rates than shorter-term loans during each year in their lifetimes. We further find that the yield curves of auto loans are inverted, and the interest rates for auto loans of six or more years have increasingly become lower than those of shorter-term auto loans.

Interlocking Directorates and Competition in Banking

We study the effects on loan rates of a quasi-experimental change in the Italian legislation which forbids interlocking directorates between banks. We use a difference-in-differences approach and exploit multiple banking relationships to control for unobserved heterogeneity. We find that the reform decreased rates charged by previously interlocked banks to common customers by between 10-30 basis points. The effect is stronger if the firm had a weaker bargaining power vis-a-vis the interlocked banks. Consistent with the assumption that interlocking directorates facilitate collusion, interest rates on loans from interlocked banks become more dispersed after the reform.

Determining Factors That Improve Youths’ Economic Empowerment in Katsina State, Nigeria

Suffice it to say, that the government poverty alleviation and empowerment programmes are unsustainable, and formal financial institutions such as commercial banks are incapable of combating and reducing poverty, particularly among the Youths, as evidenced by the failure of several programmes and schemes to produce the expected results, despite government efforts to improve the standard of living of its citizens. Notwithstanding, Katsina state remains among the states with higher poverty rate, with the highest underemployment/unemployment rate. Which stemmed the incidences of violent crimes in the area. This serves as the motivation of the study to identify other factors that may be effective in empowering the Youths economically. To achieve the goals, the study employs a quantitative approach through structured questionnaire. The study samples were selected using a multistage sampling technique from microfinance services Youths’ beneficiaries in Katsina state, Nigeria. The result revealed that the variables that represented the main determinant of economic empowerment in the study; microcredit, micro-savings, financial training, and advisory services interacted positively which implies positive linear relationship with economic empowerment. The study suggests that MFBs should make microcredit more attainable to their youth clients to effectively fulfil their mission of empowering youth economically. Microfinance banks should be recognised as poor people’s banks, with one-digit loan rates. The Nigerian Central Bank should provide MFIs with adequate policy guidance in order to deliver Youths-friendly financial services. The outcomes of this research would be relevant to policy issues specifically the regulators such as the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Тенденции развития жилищного строительства в Приморском крае

The results of analysis of housing sector in the Primorsk territory indicate an unsatisfactory situation. Primorye is characterized by a low total housing area per 1 resident, a lag in housing commissioning from the western and central regions of Russia, high share of dilapidated and emergency housing, low share of housing equipped simultaneously with water supply, drainage, heating, hot water supply, gas, etc. The pace of providing affordable housing for residents of the Primorsk territory laid down in regional programs is being implemented, but it is insufficient to significantly improve the situation. Extensive measures are mainly used: stimulating demand for housing, increasing funding for housing construction programs, reducing mortgage loan rates, implementing the Far-Eastern Hectare program, etc. The approaches used to develop the construction industry, based on stimulating demand and financing construction at the expense of the state, do not give the proper effect. In this regard, intensive measures are needed aimed at the innovative development of the construction industry, the use of more modern, economical construction materials, construction technologies, management models for the construction enterprises, etc.

Analysis of the Repricing Practice of Newly Disbursed Housing Loans

In the Hungarian banking system, newly disbursed, fixed-rate housing loans are typically repriced with a lag of several months after a change in the interbank rates, which can be viewed as the cost of funds for institutions. This paper examines the number of months it takes for a change in the interbank rates to pass through to the interest rates of newly disbursed housing loans with an initial interest rate period of over one year. The two-step analysis looks at the repricing practices observed for Certified Consumer-Friendly Housing Loans (CCFHLs) employing a descriptive approach, and then a vector autoregressive model is used to estimate the speed at which interbank rates pass through to aggregate housing loan rates. Based on the authors’ estimate drawing on aggregate interest rate statistics, the changes in interbank rates are incorporated into the mortgage rates applied by Hungarian banks in approximately four months; however, according to the interest rate condition data of institutions’ CCFHL announcements, banks’ repricing practices vary, leading to differences in the speed and extent of the interest rate changes following a shift in the cost of funds.

TÜRKİYE KREDİ PİYASASINDA FAİZ ORANI ASİMETRİK GEÇİŞİNİN MODELLENMESİ: EŞİK EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİNDEN YENİ KANITLAR

The current study aims to examine the relationship between banks’ marginal cost (official policy rate) and retail rates in Turkish banking loan market. We tested asymmetric pass-through by using threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) and weekly data over the period of 2011:1 to 2021:36. Empirical results reveal that there is incomplete pass-through between policy rate and retail lending rates as vehicle, housing, and commercial loans. We find that while housing and commercial loan rates are rigid downward, vehicle loan rates are rigid upward. The weak and incomplete adjustment indicate that contestability in Turkish banking market has worsened during the last decades. Moreover, positive, and negative asymmetries in transmission process of Turkish banking system imply that impact of central bank decision on macroeconomic variables (such as inflation, growth etc.) is accepted to be weak in Turkey.

Mathematical Models for Calculation of the Parameters of the Bank and the Borrower in the Mortgage Lending

The article covers the consideration of the issues of analysis and development of mathematical models to improve the efficiency of the mortgage lending system. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the current mechanisms of mortgage lending in Russia do not correspond to global trends: by interest rates level; in terms of the volume of loans issued and other conditions. However, it is one of the main tools that allows to improve the population’s living conditions and, as a result, to release the socio-economic tension caused by this factor, as well as to attract additional input in the investment and construction sector, which in modern conditions is one of the most important problems. As a result of the research carried out, the article offers a mathematical model for calculating the parameters of the bank and the borrower, in order to form the most acceptable conditions for the loan. In the mathematical model, such parameters of the borrower and the lender as the price of the apartment, the percentage of the down payment from its price, the mortgage loan rate, the total debt and the loan term, as well as the share of the borrower's income allocated to monthly payments are interconnected. This model will allow the bank to determine the most suitable loan conditions regarding the payment amount, term, and available credit limit, and the borrower to calculate the parameters of the loan in order to make an informed decision on attracting it. All this, in the end, will allow banks to reduce the level of risk on issued mortgage loans, and the borrower — confidence in the ability to pay off the mortgage loan.

Management of Monetary Policy in the Framework of Decision Making on Setting Interest Rates for Sustainable Social System: Example of the Russian Federation

This work was based on empirical studies of the credit register and loans issued, which have been compiled by all Russian banks since 2017, for the analysis of bank interest rates by a common factor and subject to the control of the characteristics of the loan. These dates identified bank-specific components in the management information system; also, the same data were used to measure the fragmentation of the accounting lending market in Russia. This paper illustrates the credit market in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic by analyzing the management of loan rates with existing differences due to the heterogeneity of banks and borrowers in order to achieve a sustainable management system. The results show that the heterogeneity of banks’ decision-making when setting interest rates is high and increased at an early stage of the pandemic. Additionally, the results demonstrate that the banks tightened interest-free lending conditions during the pandemic for sustainable management goals.

Transmission of Monetary Policy through Credit Interest Rates in Turkey: A Microeconomic Perspective

This study aims to examine the monetary policy transmission through the credit channel from a microeconomic perspective by using the fixed effect dynamic panel model. It is estimated to what extent policy interest rate changes are transferred to the short-term interest rate depending on the type of loan. Results confirm that there is a high degree of inertia in both the commercial and consumer loan interest rates. In terms of the transmission of monetary policy, changes in policy interest rates are transferred to commercial loan interest rates by 11% and consumer loan interest rates by 15% in the short term. These values reveal that policy interest rate changes are gradually transmitted to market interest rates. Variables representing bank size, leverage, and market power in terms of distinctive characteristics have a limited impact on both commercial and consumer loan interest rates in the analyzing period. However, the market share of a bank has a significant impact on both commercial and consumer loan rates.

Information Asymmetry Among Investors and Strategic Bidding in Peer-to-Peer Lending

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending became a global phenomenon in recent years. Despite their prominence in the “FinTech” era, P2P platforms remain a risky investment because of the high default rate of unsecured personal loans funded on such platforms. In contrast, the rate of return can be much higher than that of other investments if P2P loans are repaid. Therefore, investors of P2P loans need information about borrowers’ ability to repay. An important channel is to learn from other investors who may have information advantages. We argue that, because collective effort from investors is required in P2P lending, it could be optimal for informed investors to bid early in projects with the purpose of signaling the quality. With a unique data set from Prosper.com, we find that informed investors are indeed more likely to bid in the early stage of a project with a low probability of being funded, whereas uninformed investors will follow. The “squatting” behavior (early bidding) of informed investors facilitates information spillover to uninformed investors, benefitting the investors and borrowers who otherwise may not raise sufficient funding. Our findings also have implications for P2P lending platforms on how to manage the information asymmetry and strategic behaviors of investors.