Rate Rules Research Articles

Determinacy and E‐Stability with Interest Rate Rules at the Zero Lower Bound

AbstractWe evaluate and compare alternative interest rate rules, namely, average inflation targeting (AIT), price‐level targeting (PLT), and traditional inflation targeting rules, in a standard New Keynesian model that features recurring, transient zero lower bound regimes. We use determinacy and expectational stability (E‐stability) of equilibrium as the criteria for stabilization policy. We find that PLT policy, including nominal GDP targeting as a special case, most effectively promotes determinacy and E‐stability among the policy frameworks, whereas standard inflation targeting rules are prone to indeterminacy. AIT can induce determinacy and E‐stability effectively, provided the averaging window is sufficiently long.

Theoretical kinetic study of key reactions between ammonia and fuel molecules, part I: Hydrogen atom abstraction from alkanes by ṄH2 radical

Cross reactions between ṄH2 radical and fuel molecules are essential in determining the reactivity for ammonia/fuel blends. A systematic theoretical chemical kinetic investigation of hydrogen atom abstraction by ṄH2 radical from C1–C6 alkanes, n-heptane, and isooctane has been performed in this study. The geometry optimization, frequency, and zero-point energy calculations for all species related to the title reactions were calculated at the M06-2X/6-311++G(d,p) level of theory. One-dimensional hindered rotor treatment has also been performed at the same level of theory to obtain the potential energy surface for the low frequency torsional modes. Single-point energy was obtained at the QCISD(T)/cc-pVDZ, QCISD(T)/cc-pVTZ, MP2/cc-pVDZ, MP2/cc-pVTZ and MP2/cc-pVQZ levels of theory and then extrapolated to the complete basis set. Benchmark calculations for single point energy have also been carried out at the CCSD(T)-F12/cc-pVTZ, CCSD(T)-F12/cc-pVQZ, CCSD(T)-F12/aug-cc-pVTZ and CCSD(T)-F12/aug-cc-pVQZ levels of theory based on the geometries obtained at the CCSD(T)/cc-pVDZ level of theory for the reaction systems of methane + ṄH2 and ethane + ṄH2. The rate constants of 41 reactions in the temperature range 298.15–2000 K were calculated by using the Master Equation System Solver (MESS) with conventional transition state theory. Good agreement has been gained between our calculated results and the available theoretical and experimental data in the literature. Rate rules for different reaction sites have also been derived, and the average rate constants for primary, secondary, and tertiary sites were also reported on a per hydrogen atom basis. The impact of calculation data for the ammonia/alkane blends model has also been investigated. The calculated rate constants are valuable for the combustion kinetic model development for ammonia blending fuels.

Mechanism development for larger alkanes by auto-generation and rate rule optimization: A case study of the pentane isomers

The core chemistry and thermodynamic data of large alkanes in NUIGMech1.3 were recently updated. In the present work, the set of rate rules for large alkanes is optimized against experimental data to improve the predictive capability of the mechanism. As an initial step in developing a consistent set of rate rules for any larger alkane, we optimized the mechanism of the pentane isomers, whose mechanisms were generated based on 185 rate rules in 24 reaction classes using the MAMOX++ code. The final combined mechanism contains 1427 species and 6676 reactions. For the efficient optimization of such a large mechanism, the Optima++ code was extended to rate rules and was linked with the Zero-RK simulation code. As reference data, first-stage and total ignition delay times measured in shock tubes and rapid compression machines, and species concentrations measured in jet-stirred reactors were collected in wide ranges of conditions. The prior uncertainties of the Arrhenius equations of the 185 rate rules were determined based on a review of alkane fuel rate constant studies. The PCA-SUE method was used for the selection of the influential rate rules. This method identified 94 important rate rules, whose Arrhenius parameters were subsequently optimized within their prior uncertainty ranges using Optima++ against a representative subset of the data collection with a moderate computational effort. The optimization notably improved the accuracy of the mechanism, which now performs significantly better than the Bugler et al. mechanism (PROCI, 2017). The present study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, thereby paving the way to the optimization of a complete set of rate rules that can be used for the generation of a reliable combustion mechanism for any larger alkane, and with some extensions even for unsaturated fuels or oxygenated fuels such as biodiesels.

Theoretical and kinetic study of the H-atom abstraction reactions by Ḣ atom from alkyl cyclohexanes.

Reaction kinetics of hydrogen atom abstraction from six alkyl cyclohexanes, methyl cyclohexane (MCH), ethyl cyclohexane (ECH), n-propyl cyclohexane (nPCH), iso-propyl cyclohexane (iPCH), sec-butyl cyclohexane (sBCH) and iso-butyl cyclohexane (iBCH), by the Ḣ atom are systematically studied in this work. The M06-2X method combined with the 6-311++G(d,p) basis set is used to perform geometry optimization, frequency analysis and zero-point energy calculations for all species. The intrinsic reaction coordinate (IRC) calculations are performed to confirm the transition states connecting the reactants and products correctly. One-dimensional hindered rotors are used to treat the low frequency torsional models with potentials scanned at the M06-2X/6-31G level of theory. Electronic single-point energy calculations for all reactants, transition states, and products are performed at the QCISD(T)/CBS level of theory. High-pressure limiting rate constants of 39 reaction channels are obtained using conventional transition state theory with asymmetric Eckart tunneling corrections in the temperature range 298.15-2000 K. Reaction rate rules for H-atom abstraction by the Ḣ atom from alkyl cyclohexanes on primary, secondary and tertiary carbon sites on both the side chain and ring are provided. The obtained rate constants are given by the Arrhenius expression in the temperature range 500-2000 K, which can be used for the combustion kinetics model development for alkyl cyclohexanes.

Theoretical study on the H-atom abstraction reactions of pentanol + HȮ2, part I: five branched pentanol isomers.

The chemical kinetic studies of hydrogen atom (H-atom) abstraction reactions by hydroperoxyl (HȮ2) radicals from five branched pentanol isomers, including 3-methyl-1-butanol, 2-methyl-1-butanol, 1,1-dimethyl-1-propanol, 1,2-dimethyl-1-propanol, and 2,2-dimethyl-1-propanol were investigated systematically through high-level ab initio calculations. Geometry optimization, frequency analysis, and zero-point energy (ZPE) corrections were performed for six reactants, twenty-three transition states (TSs), and twenty-four products at the M06-2X/6-311++G(d,p) level of theory. The intrinsic reaction coordinate calculation was performed at the same level of theory to confirm the transition state connection. The one-dimensional hindered rotor treatment for low-frequency torsional modes was also treated at the M06-2X/6-311++G(d,p) level of theory. The QCISD(T)/CBS level of theory was used to calculate the single-point energies for the species whose T1 diagnostic value was lower than 0.035. At the same time, the CASPT2/CBS level of theory was used to calculate the single-point energies for the channel in which the T1 diagnostic value of transition states was greater than 0.035. Rate constants for the H-atom abstraction reactions from the five branched pentanol isomers by HȮ2 radicals were calculated by using conventional transition state theory with asymmetric Eckart tunneling corrections in the temperature range of 500-2000 K. Rate constants and branching ratios for the title reactions and the rate rules for ten different H-atom abstraction types were investigated. Temperature-dependent thermochemistry properties for all reactants and products were calculated by the composite methods of G3/G4/CBS-QB3/CBS-APNO, which were in good agreement with the data available in the literature. Rate constants for the H-atom abstraction reactions by HȮ2 radical from branched pentanol isomers were investigated in this work as part I, and those for linear pentanol isomers will be analyzed in part II. All the calculated kinetics and thermochemistry data can be utilized in the model development for branched pentanol isomers oxidation.

Alcohol consumption, life history and extinction risk among Raute hunter–gatherers from Nepal

Abstract Hunter–gatherer populations underwent a mass extinction in the Neolithic, and in present times face challenges such as explicit sedentarisation policies. An exception is in Nepal, where the nomadic Raute people receive monthly governmental individual payments. One consequence of the money transfers has been a significant increase in alcohol consumption, with nearly all individuals drinking industrially produced alcohol. Here we investigate the Raute demography based on a full census of 144 individuals. We show that the Raute exhibit the short life expectancies typical of other hunter–gatherer populations from Africa, Asia and America. Bayesian survival trajectory analysis demonstrated that heavy drinking by either parent substantially reduces offspring survival to age 15. Bayesian regressions revealed a significant effect of heavy drinking on maternal fertility by decreasing the number of living children and reducing the proportion of live children at the end of maternal reproductive life. Although the absence of data prior to monetary support precludes a direct assessment of long-term demographic trends, relatively stable population sizes over the last decades and a fertility rate close to the replacement rate rule out an imminent population crash. Further studies are required to elucidate the Rautes’ origins and relationship with other nomadic people in the region.

A theoretical kinetic study of 1-butyne, 2-butyne, and 3-methyl-1-butyne combustion

Propargylic radicals are an essential component in molecular weight growth kinetics and can react to form polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and soot. To establish rate rules for propargylic radicals, a total of 16 H-atom abstraction reactions of three alkynes, namely 1-butyne (1-C4H6), 2-butyne (2-C4H6), and 3-methyl-1-butyne (C5H8), were calculated using high-level quantum chemistry, in which four active radicals including Ḣ, ȮH, ĊH3, and HȮ2 were involved. Considering the completeness of the establishment of rate rules, the H-atom abstraction sites have included the primary and secondary site of 1-C4H6, primary site of 2-C4H6, and tertiary site of C5H8. The M06–2X/6–311++G(d,p) level of density function theory was used for the geometry optimization, vibrational frequency, and dihedral scan calculations. Single point energy calculations were carried out at the CCSD/cc-pVXZ (X = T, Q) level of coupled cluster theory. The rate coefficients for all of the abstraction reactions and the thermochemical quantities of 1-C4H6, 2-C4H6, and C5H8 and their corresponding radical products were calculated. The results indicate that H-atom abstraction by ȮH radicals has the fastest reaction rates for all three species. Moreover, abstraction from the tertiary site on C5H8 is the fastest, followed by abstraction of secondary hydrogen atoms on 1-C4H6 and primary hydrogen atoms on 2-C4H6, while abstraction of primary hydrogen atoms on 1-C4H6 are the slowest. NUIGMech1.3 (mechanism of version 1.3 proposed by National University of Ireland, Galway) has been updated based on our calculations, and ignition delay times (IDTs) were predicted using the updated mechanism. The predicted IDTs gave better agreement with the experiment data at pressures of 1, 30 and 50 bar. Sensitivity analyses were performed to understand observed model predicted differences at low to intermediate temperatures (700–1000 K) at 10 bar. The results show that the reactions 1-C4H6/2-C4H6 + HȮ2 and HȮ2 + HȮ2<=> H2O2 + O2 have a significant effect on promoting and inhibiting reactivity, respectively. Further Flux analyses show that the H-atom abstraction from 1-C4H6 and 2-C4H6 by ȮH radical is a dominant channel in changing branching ratios.

Labor Market Discrimination and the Racial Unemployment Gap: Can Monetary Policy Make a Difference?

Black workers experience a higher unemployment rate, as well as more volatile employment dynamics, than white workers, and the racial unemployment rate gap is largely unexplained by observable characteristics. We develop a New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market, endogenous separations, and employer discrimination against Black workers to explain these outcomes. The model is consistent with key features of the aggregate economy and is able to explain key labor market disparities across racial groups. We then use this model to assess the effects of the Federal Reserve’s new monetary policy framework---interest rates respond to shortfalls of employment from its maximum level rather than deviations---on racial inequality in the labor market. We find that shifting from a Deviations interest rate rule to a Shortfalls rule reduces the racial unemployment rate gap and the model-based measures of labor market discrimination but increases the average inflation rate. From a welfare perspective, we find that the Shortfalls approach does not do much to reduce racial inequality in our model economy.

A Theoretical Kinetic Study on Concerted Elimination Reaction Class of Peroxyl-hydroperoxyl-alkyl Radicals (•OOQOOH) in Normal-alkyl Cyclohexanes.

The concerted elimination reaction class of peroxyl-hydroperoxyl alkyl radicals (•OOQOOH) plays a crucial role in the low-temperature combustion of normal-alkyl cyclohexanes. The generation of the relatively unreactive HO2 radicals in this reaction is one of the factors leading to the negative temperature coefficient (NTC) behavior, which hinders the low-temperature oxidation of normal-alkyl cyclohexanes. In this study, 44 reactions are selected and divided into 4 different subclasses according to the nature of the carbon atom where the H atom is eliminated and the reaction center position. Utilizing the CBS-QB3 method, we compute the energy barriers for the concerted elimination reactions of peroxyl-hydroperoxyl alkyl radicals. Following this, we assess both the high-pressure limit and pressure-dependent rate constants for all reactions by applying TST and RRKM/ME theory. These calculations allow for the development of rate rules, which come to fruition through an averaging process involving the rate constants of representative reactions within each subclass. Our work provides accurate rate constants and rate rules for this reaction class, which can aid in constructing more accurate combustion mechanisms for normal-alkyl cyclohexanes.

An updated functional-group-based approach to modeling the vacuum residue oil gasification kinetics

Gasification of heavy petroleum residues can convert low-value feedstock to hydrogen-rich syngas, which can further be used for power generation and/or chemical production. The present work proposed an updated functional-group-based approach (FGMech) to modeling the gasification of a vacuum residue oil (VRO), which is helpful for better understanding the detailed kinetics of the gasification and improving gasifier performance. Elemental, average molecular weight (AMW) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) analyses were conducted experimentally to characterize VRO, including elemental composition, average molecular formula and the functional group distribution, which were further used for model construction. A lumped mechanism for VRO devolatilization was constructed based on the updated FGMech approach: stoichiometric parameters of stable gases, tars and char were obtained from experiments, while those of radicals were based on the multiple linear regression (MLR) correlations; thermodynamic and kinetic parameters were derived from Benson group additivity method and rate rules, respectively. A merged detailed model was adopted for describing the conversion of gases and tars, and a global model was used for char. To test the reliability of the present model approach, Orimulsion gasification experiments from literature were simulated using an integrated perfectly stirred reactor (PSR) and plug flow reactor (PFR) model. It shows that the present model can reasonably predict measured results under various equivalence ratios, and has better performance on the prediction of CH4 compared with most literature models. Based on model analyses, syngas comes from the conversion of C2H4, H2S, CH4 and char in different gasification stages. Benzene, toluene, naphthalene and 1-methylnaphthalene are initial tar species considered in the devolatilization of the VRO. They can undergo hydrogen abstraction acetylene addition (HACA) and C3H3/C5H5 addition reaction pathways to produce large PAHs.

Optimal monetary policy with [formula omitted

We study the optimal monetary policy problem in a New Keynesian economy with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate, when the steady state natural rate (r∗) becomes permanently negative. We show that the optimal policy aims to approach gradually a new steady state with positive average inflation. Around that steady state, the optimal policy implies well defined (second-best) paths for inflation and output in response to shocks to the natural rate. Under plausible calibrations, the optimal policy implies that the nominal rate remains at its ZLB most of the time. Despite the latter feature, the central bank can implement the optimal outcome as a unique equilibrium by means of an appropriate nonlinear interest rate rule. In order to establish that result, we derive sufficient conditions for local determinacy in a general model with endogenous regime switches.

Застосування монетарних режимів у процесі прийняття рішень із грошово-кредитної політики

Introduction. The article studies two main monetary regimes in the process of monetary reform of central banks: a target-based regime and a rule-based regime. Inflation targeting is the most common rule of monetary policy. Using the key rate as a monetary policy tool can ensure price stability and economic growth. Problem Statement. Using the interest rate rule of inflation targeting, the central bank has certain advantages over the target variables. If preferences change unexpectedly, they are not taken into account by economic agents as quickly and act as an exogenous shock to the economy. This allows the central bank to test its policy against a rule that is potentially persistent in many cases of macroeconomic models. The purpose is to evaluate the reforms of the monetary regimes of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Federal Reserve System, which are based on legally established rules and instruments of monetary policy, which enables the central bank to make effective monetary decisions to achieve price stability and sustainable employment. Methods. The Taylor rule was used to test the hypothesis that there is a relationship between the inflation target and the variables of the Taylor function, including the gap between GDP and potential GDP, as well as the determination of the key rate based on the quantitative parameters of the target function. This confirms the expediency of applying the Taylor rule when implementing the inflation targeting regime. Results. Reforms of monetary regimes were aimed at clarifying the political responsibility of central banks, strengthening their independence in making decisions related to monetary policy objectives. The reforms were supposed to contribute to increasing the level of transparency by improving the effectiveness of the communication policy, which consisted in transmitting policy decisions from the central bank to the public and signaling future political intentions. In general, the responsibility in the inflation targeting regime is enhanced by the public nature of the assumed obligations related to the announced goal and the requirements put forward by the central bank regarding its implementation. Achieving the goal becomes an indicator of the central bank's effective activity. Conclusions. Many of the aspects that were introduced in New Zealand and the US – the public commitment to an inflation target, high levels of transparency and accountability – are now considered the best practice in monetary policy. Making targets public promotes accountability, especially if the central bank has a single policy objective – price stability or an inflation target. Otherwise, broad independence in decision-making may make the central bank less accountable, and therefore independence should be clearly linked to the objectives rather than the choice of instruments, which is the best strategy for central bank reform.

Kinetic study of hydrogen abstraction reactions from n-propyl/n-butylcyclohexane by hydrogen atom

Hydrogen abstraction reactions of alkylated cycloalkane by radicals play a fundamental role in combustion and atmospheric chemistry. In this work, we select two representative molecules in alkylated cycloalkane fuels, n-propylcyclohexane (nPCH) and n-butylcyclohexane (nBCH), to investigate the kinetics of their hydrogen abstraction reactions with hydrogen atom. The rate constants over a broad temperature range of 298–2000 K were calculated by using canonical transition state theory coupled with the multistructural torsional anharmonicity effect (TST/MS-T). We stress the particular importance of considering the MS-T anharmonicity for the investigated species involved in the H-abstraction pathways. Due to the approximate cancelation of the anharmonicity factor between the transition-state species and the reactant, the anharmonicity factors for reactions are spread over a narrower range of 0.7–3.3. The anharmonicity will slightly accelerate the H-abstraction for the nBCH system over the whole temperature range. The current results show that the multistructural torsional anharmonicity will influence the accurate estimation of competing relationships. We found that the total H-abstraction rate constants of the nBCH system by the TST/MS-T method are larger by factors of 1.2–1.3 than those for the nPCH system. The present data show that nPCH + H channels are less important by factors of 1.41–5.48 than currently estimated by the commonly used nPCH pyrolysis model. The H-abstraction ratios from the cyclic ring and side chain groups reveal that the rate rule for secondary carbon in chain alkanes does not represent the reactivity of all cycloalkanes well, e.g. the ratio between the cyclic ring and side chain group is high up to 2.8.

Inflation Targeting As a Tool for Maintaining Price Stability of The National Bank of Ukraine

Introduction. Inflation targeting is a tool for ensuring price stability in the economy and therefore requires harmonious coordination and communication among government institutions. At the same time, the central bank must adhere to a certain policy instrument, the established legal rules, which are fixed in its mandate, or act at its discretion. Nowadays, the most common rule of monetary policy is inflation targeting.&#x0D; Aim and tasks. The purpose of the article is to explain the expediency of using the inflation targeting regime to keep inflation at a certain target level, which is determined by the central bank taking into account the current state of the economy.&#x0D; Results. The theoretical model of Taylor is considered, which is based on inflation assessment in the form of a simple interest rate rule based on monetary policy instruments that ensure convergence of the inflation forecast to the target value in the medium term. The obtained results reflect the volatility of the indicators of the objective function in the data range of 2015 Q3–2021 Q2 and confirm the weight of the gap of variable values that are estimated to be insignificant (95%). Using the GMM method, the relationship between the indicators of the objective function and their impact on the inflation rate through the use of the inflation targeting regime was verified. In particular, the volatility of variables such as the inflation gap, short-term interest rate, output gap, and exchange rate gap and their impact on the target inflation rate was revealed on the time horizon of monetary policy. Smoothing out gaps in variables is one of the goals of the central bank's reaction function under the inflation targeting regime. The use of the GMM method confirms the validity of the application of Taylor's rule regarding the feasibility of choosing an objective function with predetermined variable parameters at different sampling intervals.&#x0D; Conclusions. The increase in the volatility of variable parameters in the objective function of central banks under the inflation targeting regime is explained by global crises and the sensitivity of macroeconomic indicators to fluctuations in the economic situation. This is the main reason why central banks strictly follow the rules of monetary policy, which allow the timely smoothing of exogenous shocks in the economy.

High-Pressure-Limit and Pressure-Dependent Rate Rules for Intramolecular Cyclization Reactions of α,β-Hydroxyl Hydroperoxyalkyl Radicals

ABSTRACT The cyclization reaction class of hydroxyl hydroperoxyalkyl radicals is one of the crucial reaction classes in low-temperature combustion mechanism of alcohols and alkenes. However, there is a lack of reports on accurate high-pressure-limit rate rules and pressure-dependent rate rules for this reaction class in literature. In this paper, 108 reactions are selected and divided into different classes according to the type of hydroxyl hydroperoxyalkyl radicals, the ring size of the transition states, and the position of the OH group. The energy barriers of the cyclization reactions of hydroxyl hydroperoxyalkyl radicals are calculated by the isodesmic reaction method, and the high-pressure-limit rate constants and pressure-dependent rate constants of all reactions are calculated using the TST and RRKM/ME theory, from which a high-pressure-limit rate rule and pressure-dependent rate rule for each subclass are established. It found that the isodesmic reaction method gives accurate energy barriers and rate constants, and the calculated rate constants of the cyclization reactions of hydroxyl hydroperoxyalkyl radicals are different from those of analogous reactions in alkanes, which indicates the necessity of establishing the rate rules for the cyclization reactions of hydroxyl hydroperoxyalkyl radical. There are large differences in energy barriers and rate constants among the whole reaction classes of the cyclization reactions of hydroxyl hydroperoxyalkyl radicals, so it is necessary to divide the cyclization reactions class into subclasses, and it is also shown that the pressure has a significant effect on the rate constants. In summary, accurate high-pressure-limit rate rules and pressure-dependent rate rules for the cyclization of hydroxyl hydroperoxyalkyl radicals have been developed in this study, which is helpful for the automatic construction of higher accuracy combustion mechanisms for alcohols and alkenes.

Study on the initial pyrolysis kinetics of strained polycyclic hydrocarbons

Strained polycyclic hydrocarbons are one of the most important classes of high-energy density fuels. In this work, the thermodynamics and initial pyrolysis kinetics of five strained polycyclic hydrocarbons, which are isomers of JP-10 and are linearly aggregates of two cyclopropyl rings and one cyclobutyl ring, were investigated using quantum chemical computations. The initial pyrolysis reactions include ring bond breaking and bridge bond breaking. The ring bond breaking reactions include a diradical pathway which is the direct C-C bond breaking to produce a diradical and an isomerization pathway involving concert bond breaking and H-atom transfer, and the bridge bond breaking reactions lead to two radicals. Our potential energy calculation shows that the ring bond breaking reactions are much more energetically favorable than the bridge bond breaking reactions, which can be neglected in the initial pyrolysis process of strained polycyclic hydrocarbons. The rate constants of the ring bond breaking reactions were computed using variational transition state theory (VTST) or transition state theory (TST). Our calculated results demonstrated that ring bond breaking reactions of the three-membered ring are competitive with that of the four-membered ring. The studied reactions are divided into classes depending on the size of the rings (three- or four-membered ring) and the types of the carbon atoms of the breaking C-C bond (Cs-Cs, Cs-Ct, Ct-Ct and Cq-Cs). Reaction rate rules are established for each class, which are useful for the mechanism generation for analogous strained polycyclic hydrocarbons. Thermodynamic properties including net calorific values per mole, gravimetric net heat of combustion and impulse time of our studied strained polycyclic hydrocarbons are higher than those of JP-10. A comparison of the initial pyrolysis kinetics of our studied strained polycyclic hydrocarbons with the isomer JP-10 indicates that these compounds may be easier to pyrolyze.

Assessing the implementation of nurse practitioner-led huddles in long-term care using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR)

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic created major challenges in long-term care (LTC) homes across Canada and globally. A nurse practitioner-led interdisciplinary huddle intervention was developed to support staff wellbeing in two LTC homes in Ontario, Canada. The objective of this study was to identify the constructs strongly influencing the process of implementation of huddles across both sites, capturing the overall barriers and facilitators and the intervention’s intrinsic properties.MethodsNineteen participants were interviewed about their experiences, pre-, post-, and during huddle implementation. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) was used to guide data collection and analysis. CFIR rating rules and a cross-comparison analysis was used to identify differentiating factors between sites. A novel extension to the CFIR analysis process was designed to assess commonly influential factors across both sites.ResultsNineteen of twenty selected CFIR constructs were coded in interviews from both sites. Five constructs were determined to be strongly influential across both implementation sites and a detailed description is provided: evidence strength and quality; needs and resources of those served by the organization; leadership engagement; relative priority; and champions. A summary of ratings and an illustrative quote are provided for each construct.ConclusionSuccessful huddles require long-term care leaders to consider their involvement, the inclusion all team members to help build relationships and foster cohesion, and the integration of nurse practitioners as full-time staff members within LTC homes to support staff and facilitate initiatives for wellbeing. This research provides an example of a novel approach using the CFIR methodology, extending its use to identify significant factors for implementation when it is not possible to compare differences in success.

Interest Rates, Money, and Fed Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching Bayesian VAR

Abstract This paper evaluates the roles of short- and long-term private and government interest rates and inside and outside money in the monetary transmission mechanism. With money and credit markets present, changes in monetary policy set off a chain of relative price and portfolio adjustments affecting output and prices. I study interest rate and money supply rules within this monetary transmission mechanism by estimating several Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVARs) on a quarterly U.S. sample from 1960 to 2018. The best-fit MS-BVAR restricts MS to the impact and lag coefficients of the monetary policy and money demand regressions as well as to the stochastic volatilities (SVs) of the structural shocks. Estimates of this MS-BVAR yield evidence of a SV regime which coincides with NBER-dated recessions. This MS-BVAR also identifies a regime switch in the Fed’s interest rate rule and banks’ demand for outside money around the dot-com bust of 2000 and again from the 2007–2009 recession and financial crisis to the end of the sample. Counterfactual simulations show the 2007–2009 recession and financial crisis would have not been as deep and long-lasting if the fed funds rate had been as low as −8 % in 2009 and remained negative from 2010 through 2016.

Managing Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets with Monetary Policy

AbstractWe study the effect of a “leaning against the wind” monetary policy on asset price bubbles in a learning‐to‐forecast experiment, where prices are driven by the expectations of market participants. We find that a strong interest rate response is successful in preventing or deflating large price bubbles, while a weak response is not. Giving information about the interest rate changes and communicating the goal of the policy increases coordination of expectations and has a stabilizing effect. When the steady‐state fundamental price is unknown and the interest rate rule is based on a proxy instead, the policy is less effective.

Using the Minimum Acceptable Annual Withdrawal with the Perfect Withdrawal Rate Rule

This study shows how to use the concept of Perfect Withdrawal Rates to quantify appropriate retirement withdrawal amounts year by year based on changing returns and (probably) in conversation with an adviser, using both historical strings of returns and Monte Carlo simulations. The authors show how the ‘strings’ approach is superior (i.e., more ‘realistic’) in practice to Monte Carlo. The preferred withdrawal strategy is ‘adaptive’ as information is updated, and their suggested measure of success is how well a withdrawal strategy performs against a targeted withdrawal financial amount, most likely chosen in discussion between a retiree and an advisor, and which is labelled as the minimum acceptable annual withdrawal (MAAW) rate. The authors suggest that this offers a very simple, practical, and intuitively appealing measure of success for the performance of portfolios in the decumulation context. They also discuss the use of delayed and deferred annuities in this context, as well as the associated target residual financial sum.