Violent Crime Rates Research Articles

A Statistical Representation of the Inequities Encountered by African Americans Living in Atlanta During COVID: A Time for Action.

This research analyzes the statistically significant differences that exist between Blacks and Whites living in Atlanta via their social, economic, educational, and housing characteristics during COVID. Hypothesis tests confirmed what visual scatterplots and correlations inferred. The statistics overwhelmingly substantiate that all six of the important quality of life metrics viewed in this study are more favorable towards predominately White neighborhoods, as opposed to predominately Black neighborhoods. In particular, neighborhoods with a super majority of White residents tended to have higher life expectancies at the times of their births, sustained lower violent crime rates, held higher median household incomes, had a smaller percentage of its children living below the poverty level, had higher percentages of residents with at least a high school diploma, and maintained more occupied housing units, when compared to neighborhoods with a super majority of Black residents.

Investigating crime harm index in the low and downward crime contexts: A spatio-temporal analysis of the Japanese Crime Harm Index

Since Louis Thurstone, there have been nearly 100 years of attempts to compare and evaluate the severities of different crime types. Further research has been recently conducted, following methods such as the Cambridge Crime Harm Index (CCHI), which evaluates the harmful impact of crime on the society and identifies the areas in a city with truly high crime harm by weighting the more serious crimes. Although this index facilitates informed urban policy, its effectiveness in settings such as that of Japan, in which the rate of violent crimes, including gun crime, is low, and where crime occurrence is generally infrequent, remains unclear. Here, the Japanese CHI was analyzed by examining the criminal offense data of 77 jurisdictions in central Tokyo in 2010–2019. The pre-weighted counts and post-weighted harm were compared to examine the correlations and time-series changes between them, as well as their differences via different indicators, such as the Gini coefficient and Moran's I statistic. Additionally, space-time scans and principal component regressions were employed to determine the specific characteristics of the jurisdictions where harm accumulates. The result indicated that although the temporal and spatial variability of harm was higher than that of its counts, the tendency of high-harm jurisdictions to cluster was lower. Further, the implications of our findings, particularly regarding the socioeconomic factors that were revealed by the regression analysis, to urban policymakers were also discussed.

THE INJUSTICE OF UNDER-POLICING IN AMERICA

THE INJUSTICE OF UNDER-POLICING IN AMERICA

The sociospatial ecology of deaths during police interactions in the United States, 2016–2020

Who dies in police custody? Where? To answer these questions, we use spatially disaggregated georeferenced data that measure 9098 deaths occurring by multiple causes during interactions with police throughout the U.S. from 2016 to 2020. We use a Sociospatial Ecology framework and Bayesian statistics over U.S. counties that establishes the relationship between social contexts – regional poverty, White/non-White population, violent crime rates, and political identity – and the risk of dying during police interactions. In addition, we evaluate the effects of police force Whiteness on deaths during police interactions. Controlling for alternative explanations, we show heterogeneous distributions of fatality risk, with large clusters in the Southwest and isolated high-probability pockets in other states. Risk maps allowing for visualization of these patterns are provided. We arrive at five main results. 1) There is a general trend of higher death during police interaction in areas of high poverty, fewer White people, higher violent crime rates, and higher populations with conservative values. 2) A great risk of deadly encounters for Black people exists throughout most of the U.S., while regional patterns of high risk exist for all other people of color. 3) White deaths during police interactions are most sensitive to ecological factors. 4) The risk of Blacks getting killed by police increases in White areas regardless of violent crime rates. 5) Higher proportions of White police within U.S. counties leads to higher interactive death risk for all races/ethnicities except Asian/Pacific Islander. Ultimately, our findings identify widespread racial/ethnic biases in situations of power and control.

Objective and Subjective Neighborhood Crime Associated with Poor Sleep among Young Sexual Minority Men: a GPS Study.

Sleep disparities in sexual minority male (SMM) populations have received relatively little attention but they may be critical to explaining other health disparities seen among SMM, via neural or hormonal pathways. Recent research suggests that crime may be a psychosocial stressor that contributes to sleep disparities but that finding has been based on subjective measures of crime. We conducted the P18 Neighborhood Study of 250 SMM in New York City, including 211 with adequate GPS tracking data. We used the GPS tracking data to define daily path area activity spaces and tested the associations of violent crime in those activity spaces and in the subject's residential neighborhood, perceived neighborhood safety, and witnessing crime with a subjective measure of sleep. Using quasi-Poisson regression, adjusted for individual and neighborhood socio-demographics, we found that SMM who witnessed more types of crime experienced significantly more nights of poor sleep over the course of a month (RR: 1.16, 95%CI: 1.05-1.27, p-value: < 0.01). We did not find any associations between violent crime rates in either the activity area or residential area and sleep. Our findings support the conclusion that personal exposure to crime is associated with sleep problems and provide further evidence for the pathway between stress and sleep. The lack of association between neighborhood crime levels and sleep suggests that there must be personal experience with crime and ambient presence is insufficient to produce an effect.

Violent behavior and the COVID-19 lockdowns: a nationwide register-based study.

The primary aim was to test the hypothesis that physical interpersonal violence is decreased during the lockdown period in comparison with comparable control periods. The secondary aims were to explore the effects of gender and alcohol consumption on the violence during the lockdown. Nationwide records of hospitalizations secondary to an assault were analyzed using quasipoisson regression. Assault rates in two lockdown periods, defined as a national emergency state, were compared to baseline data between 2017 and 2020, controlling for seasonal fluctuations and pandemic-related effects other than lockdown. To validate the findings on independent data, differences between lockdown and baseline in Police records of violent criminality between 2017 and 2021 were examined using one-way ANOVA. The rates of hospitalizations secondary to an assault decreased substantially during lockdowns (IRR=.43; P<.001) and the duration of lockdown did not affect assault rates (P=.07). The decrease in assault rates was more pronounced in males than females (IRR=.77; P<.05) and was weakened in patients with history of alcohol abuse (IRR=1.83; P<.001). Violent crime rate decreased by 19% during the lockdowns compared to prepandemic baseline (P<.001). We found that physical interpersonal violence decreased during the COVID-19 lockdown periods. The reduction is significantly greater in males. Emerging evidence suggests an increased risk of alcohol use and intoxication during the lockdowns. Violent crime rate decreased during the lockdown.

Associations Between Food Insecurity and Neighborhood Safety, Social Cohesion, Social Control, and Crime Among Mothers of Preschool-Aged Children.

Food insecurity has myriad associations with poor health, and low-income communities have higher than average prevalence of food insecurity. Living in a supportive neighborhood social environment may protect against food insecurity, while adverse neighborhood social conditions, such as crime, may increase the likelihood of food insecurity. To examine associations between food insecurity and neighborhood social factors among families with young children, we administered a cross-sectional survey to 300 mothers and female caregivers of Medicaid-enrolled two- to four-year-old children in Philadelphia. We used multivariable regression to examine associations between food insecurity and perceived neighborhood safety, social cohesion, informal social control, and crime, adjusted for demographics, socioeconomic status, and neighborhood characteristics. Lower food insecurity prevalence was associated with higher perceived neighborhood safety and social cohesion, and lower police-recorded violent crime rates. Future work to increase food security among low-income households may benefit from targeting the neighborhood social environment.

The relationship between community public health, behavioral health service accessibility, and mass incarceration

BackgroundThe relationship between healthcare service accessibility in the community and incarceration is an important, yet not widely understood, phenomenon. Community behavioral health and the criminal legal systems are treated separately, which creates a competing demand to confront mass incarceration and expand available services. As a result, the relationship between behavioral health services, demographics and community factors, and incarceration rate has not been well addressed. Understanding potential drivers of incarceration, including access to community-based services, is necessary to reduce entry into the legal system and decrease recidivism. This study identifies county-level demographic, socioeconomic, healthcare services availability/accessibility, and criminal legal characteristics that predict per capita jail population across the U.S. More than 10 million individuals pass through U.S. jails each year, increasing the urgency of addressing this challenge.MethodsThe selection of variables for our model proceeded in stages. The study commenced by identifying potential descriptors and then using machine learning techniques to select non-collinear variables to predict county jail population per capita. Beta regression was then applied to nationally available data from all 3,141 U.S. counties to identify factors predicting county jail population size. Data sources include the Vera Institute’s incarceration database, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s County Health Rankings and Roadmaps, Uniform Crime Report, and the U.S. Census.ResultsFewer per capita psychiatrists (z-score = -2.16; p = .031), lower percent of drug treatment paid by Medicaid (-3.66; p < .001), higher per capita healthcare costs (5.71; p < .001), higher number of physically unhealthy days in a month (8.6; p < .001), lower high school graduation rate (-4.05; p < .001), smaller county size (-2.66, p = .008; -2.71, p = .007; medium and large versus small counties, respectively), and more police officers per capita (8.74; p < .001) were associated with higher per capita jail population. Controlling for other factors, violent crime rate did not predict incarceration rate.ConclusionsCounties with smaller populations, larger percentages of individuals that did not graduate high school, that have more health-related issues, and provide fewer community treatment services are more likely to have higher jail population per capita. Increasing access to services, including mental health providers, and improving the affordability of drug treatment and healthcare may help reduce incarceration rates.

Not Just Another Test of Institutional Anomie Theory: Assessing Relative Institutional Imbalances

Institutional Anomie Theory (IAT) proposes high violent crime rates are due partially to imbalances in societal institutions, specifically the dominance of the economy over non-economic institutions. Tests of IAT have focused largely on the absolute strength of the economy, which ignores the core argument of institutional imbalance and the possibility that institutional preferences may not be additive and limited. If one institution is strong, it does not mean other institutions are weak. We believe rigorous tests of IAT must include its central concept of relative institutional imbalance. Utilizing the World Values Survey for a sample of 74 nations, we created institutional imbalance ratios for each pairing of the economy with family, education, religion, and polity. We employed multiple regression to determine if our measures of institutional preferences were associated with homicide victimization rates. Results indicated only the Economic:Education institutional imbalance ratio was positively and significantly associated with national homicide rates.

Association Between Community-Level Violent Crime and Cardiovascular Mortality in Chicago: A Longitudinal Analysis.

Background Violent crime has recently increased in many major metropolitan cities in the United States. Prior studies suggest an association between neighborhood crime levels and cardiovascular disease, but many have been limited by cross-sectional designs. We investigated whether longitudinal changes in violent crime rates are associated with changes in cardiovascular mortality rates at the community level in one large US city-Chicago, IL. Methods and Results Chicago is composed of 77 community areas. Age-adjusted mortality rates by community area for cardiovascular disease, stroke, and coronary artery disease from 2000 to 2014, aggregated at 5-year intervals, were obtained from the Illinois Department of Public Health Division of Vital Records. Mean total and violent crime rates by community area were obtained from the City of Chicago Police Data Portal. Using a 2-way fixed effects estimator, we assessed the association between longitudinal changes in violent crime and cardiovascular mortality rates after accounting for changes in demographic and economic variables and secular time trends at the community area level from 2000 to 2014. Between 2000 and 2014, the median violent crime rate in Chicago decreased from 3620 per 100 000 (interquartile range [IQR], 2256, 7777) in the 2000 to 2004 period to 2390 (IQR 1507, 5745) in the 2010 to 2014 period (P=0.005 for trend). In the fixed effects model a 1% decrease in community area violent crime rate was associated with a 0.21% (95% CI, 0.09-0.33) decrease in cardiovascular mortality rates (P=<0.001) and a 0.19% (95% CI, 0.04-0.33) decrease in coronary artery disease mortality rates (P=0.01). There was no statistically significant association between change in violent crime and stroke mortality rates (-0.17% [95% CI, -0.42 to 0.08; P=0.18]). Conclusions From 2000 to 2014, a greater decrease in violent crime at the community area level was associated with a greater decrease in cardiovascular and coronary artery disease mortality rates in Chicago. These findings add to the growing evidence of the impact of the built environment on health and implicate violent crime exposure as a potential social determinant of cardiovascular health. Targeted investment in communities to decrease violent crime may improve community cardiovascular health.

Paws on the Street: Neighborhood-Level Concentration of Households with Dogs and Urban Crime.

The formative work of Jane Jacobs underscores the combination of "eyes on the street" and trust between residents in deterring crime. Nevertheless, little research has assessed the effects of residential street monitoring on crime due partly to a lack of data measuring this process. We argue that neighborhood-level rates of households with dogs captures part of the residential street monitoring process core to Jacobs' hypotheses and test whether this measure is inversely associated with property and violent crime rates. Data from a large-scale marketing survey of Columbus, OH, USA residents (2013; n=43,078) are used to measure census block group-level (n=595) rates of households with dogs. Data from the Adolescent Health and Development in Context study are used to measure neighborhood-level rates of trust. Consistent with Jacobs' hypotheses, results indicate that neighborhood concentration of households with dogs is inversely associated with robbery, homicide, and, to a less consistent degree, aggravated assault rates within neighborhoods high in trust. In contrast, results for property crime suggest that the inverse association of dog concentration is independent of levels of neighborhood trust. These associations are observed net of controls for neighborhood sociodemographic characteristics, temporally lagged crime, and spatial lags of trust and dog concentration. This study offers suggestive evidence of crime deterrent benefits of local street monitoring and dog presence and calls attention to the contribution of pets to other facets of neighborhood social organization.

Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil

This paper examines the effect of weather shocks on violent crime using disaggregated data from Brazilian municipalities over the period 1991–2015. Employing a distributed lag model that takes into account temporal correlations of weather shocks and spatial correlation of crime rates, I document that adverse weather shocks in the form of droughts lead to a significant increase in violent crime in rural regions. This effect appears to persist beyond the growing season and over the medium run in contrast to the conventional view perceiving weather effects as transitory. To explain this persistence, I show that weather fluctuations are positively associated not only with agriculture yields, but also with the overall economic activity. Moreover, evidence shows the dominance of opportunity cost mechanism reflected in the fluctuations of the earnings especially for the agriculture and unskilled workers, giving credence that it is indeed the income that matters and not the general socio-economic conditions. Other factors such as local government budget capacity, (un)-employment, poverty, inequality, and psychological factors do not seem to explain violent crime rates.

Предупреждение насильственной преступности в интересах социально-экономического развития государства (опыт Республики Беларусь)

Abstract. Personal safety from criminal offences is highly valued by society and state and is of top priority for the criminal science and criminal law. Human life, health, sexual freedom and safety, a relevant level of public order and morals are considered the most important goals of the law enforcement, and that demands a choice of harsh punishments for murder, bodily injuries, rape etc. Among all the crimes committed in our state violent crimes are both prevalent and significant due to a heightened harm to society, since they often bring irrevocable harm. Dangerous social processes (alcoholism, marginalization, addictions to different drugs and types of behavior, a rise of mental illnesses) bolster the danger. &#x0D; Therefore, creation and implementation of the modern ways and measures of violent offenses prevention becomes both relevant and timely. The system of prevention should be built basing on the quantitate and qualitive characteristics as a multi-level structure (general, special and individual level).&#x0D; Goal. Employing the academic research, case data, survey results the author aims at optimization of the multi-leveled system of the violent crimes and hooliganism prevention.&#x0D; Methods. The author uses comparative legal method, practical method of description, theoretical methods such as formal and dialectical logic, and surveys. Among the special scientific methods author has chosen formal legal and legal interpretation method.&#x0D; Results. Combating and prevention of crime, including violent offenses, stays a priority for every nation. It is directly related to the national safety from the domestic threats. One of the directions of state activities in that sphere is an exploration of the prevention methods.&#x0D; Collection of the analytical data on the quantitate and qualitive characteristics of the violent crimes in their dynamic, research in the sphere of personal characteristics of offenders violating life, health and sexual safety and public order allow us to create a holistic legal and scientific criminal policy in a Republic of Belarus, showing also a potential in prevention. Simultaneously a risk of recidivism among the convicted (more than 40 percent) for violence or violent threats demands our attention to the development and implementation of the multi-level prevention strategy.&#x0D; Scientific novelty. As a result of the research and accounting for the found criminal patterns the author offers an opinion of the prevention system reform in the field of violent crimes and hooliganism.&#x0D; Practical significance. The suggestions of the article in case of their implementation promise a probable decline of the violent crime rate, accounting for the optimization of the prevention activities of the different stakeholders in that field.

Déjà Q in the Australian nightlife: ID scanners and violent crime in night-time entertainment districts

On July 1, 2017, the mandatory use of identification (ID) scanners as a prerequisite to licenced venue entry came into effect in all 15 major night-time entertainment districts (NEDs) across Queensland (Australia). This relatively contemporary situational crime prevention technique functions to (1) supplement traditional door-staff enforced control access and (2) increase personal accountability by reducing perceived anonymity inside licenced venues. The current study examined the association between the ID scanner legislation and violent crime rates in the Fortitude Valley NED (Brisbane, Queensland), a leading hotspot for street violence. Police crime data was examined one year before ID scanner enforcement, and one year after, with each year matched quarterly to test Pearson’s chi-square contingencies by time of year. Violent summary offences (less serious violent offences) increased substantially in the first three months following the ID scanner legislative change, while general summary offences (i.e., public nuisance) and indictable offences (e.g., assaults) remained statistically unchanged. The introduction of ID scanners was the only legislative change that occurred in the Fortitude Valley NED during data collection, suggesting a highly probable link to the observed spike in violent offences. Potential determinants of this upsurge in violence are discussed, including inefficient queue management and increased provocations for violence in queues to nightclubs resulting from the prolonged ID scanning process.

Traumatic brain injury and risk of subsequent attempted suicide and violent crime.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) can cause long-lasting sequelae that may increase the risk of suicidal or criminal behaviour, but large-scale longitudinal studies are lacking on the link between TBI and events of suicide attempt and violent crime. This study examined the incidence of suicide attempt and violent crime following hospital contact for TBI in a nationwide cohort study. We used nationwide register data covering all individuals aged 10+ living in Denmark during 1980-2016 (n = 7 783 951). Of these, 587 522 individuals had a hospital contact for TBI. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated by Poisson regression analyses while adjusted for relevant covariates including other fractures and psychiatric diagnoses. Individuals with TBI had higher rates of suicide attempt (females IRR, 2.78; 95% CI 2.71-2.85; males IRR, 3.00; 95% CI 2.93-3.08) compared to individuals without TBI in adjusted analyses. Multiple TBI and temporal proximity to TBI were associated with higher rates of suicide attempt. Individuals with TBI had higher rates of violent crime (females IRR, 2.43; 95% CI 2.36-2.49; males IRR, 1.80, 95% CI 1.78-1.82) compared with individuals without TBI. Higher rates of violent crime were found after multiple TBI and temporal proximity to TBI. This nationwide cohort study found higher rates of suicide attempt and violent crime among individuals with prior hospital diagnosed TBI, compared with individuals without TBI. This emphasises the need for preventive efforts immediately after TBI diagnosis, which might mitigate the risks of a trajectory toward suicidal or violent behaviours.

Emergency Medical Services Demand: An Analysis of County-Level Social Determinants.

Variations in the demand for Emergency Medical Services (EMS) exist when observed at a local level. This unspecified heterogeneity leads to an investigation of social factors contributing to EMS demand. Data for this study were collected from publicly available EMS reports from Florida and Oklahoma for 2009 - 2015. Health and social data were gathered from County health rankings and roadmap reports. Data were combined into a single dataset, and pooled ordinary-least-squares models with time-fixed effects were utilized for tests of inference. EMS call volume was log-transformed to derive a semi-elasticity function. A total of 874 county-year observations were analyzed. Increases in poor/fair health (95% CI: 0.6% - 3.9%), binge drinking (95% CI: 1.6% - 3.5%), teen birth rate (95% CI: 1.1% - 5.2%), unemployment rate (95% CI: 0.5% - 3.9%), and violent crime rate (95% CI: 1.0% - 3.0%) were associated with an increase in the EMS demand rate. The data supports the notion that some community measures have an effect on EMS demand as counties with higher levels of poor health, binge drinking, teen births, unemployment, and violent crime saw higher EMS demand. These factors may have been treated as spurious, or overlooked by policy makers and EMS leadership.

Can Mental Tricks Effect Social Change?

Can Mental Tricks Effect Social Change?

Built Environment and Crime in a South Korea Context

The primary purpose of this paper is to test the applicability of environmental criminology in the case of South Korea. Also, it explores more effective strategies from a spatial planning perspective by taking control of diverse spatial planning factors. The study area is South Korea, and the base year was 2016. The relationship between the built environment and three crimes (theft, violence, sexual assault) was analyzed using the spatial econometric model. As a result, the best spatial regression models for violent crime rate and sexual assault rate are SEM and SAC, respectively. The most prominent finding is that the regression results in the three crimes are slightly different. The broken windows effect was negligible for significant crimes in South Korea. The influence of regional disorders on the incidence of crimes was marginal. In the three crime types, mixed land use affected raising crime rates, which is a line with some previous studies that mixed land use increases the likelihood of crime incidences. Unlike a series of relevant works, brighter nighttime light has not effectively decreased crimes in South Korea. In South Korea, CCTV did not play a role in deterring crimes. Lastly, socio-economic characteristics were closely connected with crime rates in South Korea. Findings of theft rate, violent crime rate, and sexual assault rate confirm the reliability of environmental criminology. Although this study has examined the likelihood of applying environmental criminology, further researches and discussions are followed for concrete plans.

Prediction on requirement of police recruitment on the basis of community population and rate of violent crimes where Colored (Afro) Americans live

Prediction on requirement of police recruitment on the basis of community population and rate of violent crimes where Colored (Afro) Americans live

Половое и сексуальное образование как мера индивидуальной профилактики сексуальных преступлений среди несовершеннолетних

Illiteracy in interpersonal sex relations, as well as in matters of sex communications, contributes to the development of tolerance of Russian society to sexual violence, a decrease in the age of persons committing sex crimes, a steady increase of violent crime rates (crimes against sexual freedom as well as statutory crimes), and other illegal acts of sexual nature. The mass media offers veiled propaganda of same-sex marriage, impunity, and promiscuity. Violence is increasingly used as a form of conflict resolution. The lack of skills and abilities to identify fake information on the Internet and the media by the rising generation leads to brainwashing, destructive types of interpersonal relationships between minors, the perception of violence as a normal way of life in society, and deformation of sexual relations among young people. The state of health of adolescents is also of concern, as the number of crimes committed by minors under the influence of alcohol or drugs has increased. Among other unsettling trends, in recent years, the number of minors and young adults infected by sexually transmitted diseases has increased as well. Despite the fact that the number of abortions among adolescents has decreased, only in 2020, about 630 thousand abortions were performed on women of reproductive age – that number on average corresponds to the population of Ulyanovsk. The primary cause of the current state of affairs is the lack of appropriate sexual education among minors and young adults, as well as a lack of spiritual and moral guidance.