Rate Of Sea-level Rise Research Articles

A thermomechanical model for frost heave and subglacial frozen fringe

Ice-infiltrated sediment, or frozen fringe, is responsible for phenomena such as frost heave, ice lenses and metres of debris-rich ice under glaciers. Understanding frozen fringes is important as frost heave is responsible for damaging infrastructure at high latitudes and sediment freeze-on at the base of glaciers can modulate subglacial friction, influencing the rate of global sea level rise. Here we describe the thermomechanics of liquid water flow and freezing in ice-saturated sediments, focusing on the conditions relevant for subglacial environments. The force balance that governs the frozen fringe thickness depends on the weight of the overlying material, the thermomolecular force between ice and sediments across liquid premelted films and the water pressure required by Darcy flow. We combine this mechanical model with an enthalpy method that conserves energy across phase change interfaces on a fixed computational grid. The force balance and enthalpy model together determine the evolution of the frozen fringe thickness and our simulations predict frost heave rates and ice lens spacing. Our model accounts for premelting at ice–sediment contacts, partial ice saturation of the pore space, water flow through the fringe, the thermodynamics of the ice–water–sediment interface and vertical force balance. We explicitly account for the formation of ice lenses, regions of pure ice that cleave the fringe at the depth where the interparticle force vanishes. Our model results allow us to predict the thickness of a frozen fringe and the spacing of ice lenses in subaerial and subglacial sediments.

Quantifying the benefits of wetland restoration under projected sea level rise

The capacity of vegetated coastal habitats to mitigate erosion and build elevation in response to sea-level rise (SLR) has led to growing interest in their application as Nature Based Solutions (NBS) for shoreline protection. However, a significant uncertainty in the performance of NBS is how these features will respond to future rates of SLR. In this study, we applied the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to a fringing shoreline wetland complex that is directly adjacent to the primary runway of a regional airport in coastal North Carolina, US. The SLAMM model was run at high spatial resolution (1 m cell size) to investigate the effects of projected SLR by 2100 on the wetland communities and to estimate the potential benefits of a proposed NBS project involving the use of dredged sediment to increase wetland surface elevation. Modeling future habitat extent under three SLR scenarios (i.e., intermediate, intermediate-high, and high) with no land modification reveals a consistent pattern of salt marsh expanding into fresh marsh, salt marsh transitioning to higher elevations, and substantially larger overall extents of intertidal and subtidal habitats within the project footprint at relatively high rates of SLR. Simulations that include the NBS indicate changes in the composition of wetland types over time compared with the no-action scenario. Model results help to better understand the long-term behavior of fringing coastal wetlands and the efficacy of their use as part of coastal resilience strategies.

Roles of climatic and anthropogenic factors in shaping Holocene vegetation and fire regimes in Great Dismal Swamp, eastern USA

The Great Dismal Swamp wetland, spanning >400 km2 along the Virginia and North Carolina border, was shaped by a complex combination of geomorphic, climatic, and anthropogenic forcings during the last 14,000 years. Pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, and physical properties from sediment cores at seven sites provide a detailed record of the spatial heterogeneity of the wetland and the roles played by natural hydrologic variability, wildfire, and human modification of drainage in shaping vegetation and habitats. Cold-temperate forests occupied regional uplands from at least 13.5–10.3 cal ka BP. Marshes dominated by grasses and other herbaceous taxa began developing along low-elevation streams as early as 10.3 cal ka BP, resulting in accumulation of organic silts. Long-hydroperiod, peat accumulating marshes, with abundant floating aquatic plants, developed as early as 9.6 cal ka BP, as rapid rates of sea-level rise elevated the water table and facilitated wetland development and peat accumulation along stream courses. By the mid-Holocene (c. 7–6.5 cal ka BP), when local sea-level rise began slowing and reached about 12–15 m below present, shorter hydroperiod, peat-accumulating marshes dominated the landscape, with increased wildfire activity. Great Dismal Swamp vegetation shifted from marshes to peat-accumulating forested wetlands by c. 3.7 cal ka BP; these were dominated by varying combinations of Nyssa (tupelo), Taxodium (cypress), and Chamaecyparis thyoides (Atlantic white cedar). Wildfires were infrequent during this time, and the forested wetlands persisted, with minor compositional changes related to climate-driven fluctuations in stream flow, until colonial ditching and logging began in the swamp during the late 18th century. These activities decreased cypress and cedar populations, and, by the mid-20th century, expanded ditching resulted in even drier conditions and expansion of maple-gum (dominated by Acer and Liquidambar), and pine-pocosin (dominated by Pinus) forests. The distribution of these forests differs from that of the late Holocene and represents a fundamental shift in hydrology, peat structure, vegetation, and fire regime due to landscape alterations of the last few centuries.

Long‐Term Monitoring of Coupled Vegetation and Elevation Changes in Response to Sea Level Rise in a Microtidal Salt Marsh

AbstractTight interplays between physical and biotic processes in tidal salt marshes lead to self‐organization of halophytic vegetation into recurrent zonation patterns developed across elevation gradients. Despite its importance for marsh ecomorphodynamics, however, the response of vegetation zonation to changing environmental forcings remains difficult to predict, mostly because of lacking long‐term field observations of vegetation evolution in the face of changing rates of sea level rise and marsh vertical accretion. Here we present novel data of coupled marsh elevation‐vegetation distribution collected in the microtidal Venice Lagoon (Italy) over nearly two decades. Our results suggest that: (a) despite increasing absolute marsh elevations (i.e., above a fixed datum), vertical accretion rates across most of the studied marsh were not high enough to compensate for relative sea‐level rise (RSLR), thus leading to a progressive marsh drowning; (b) accretion rates ranging 1.7–4.3 mm/year are overall lower than the measured RSLR rate (4.4 mm/year) and strongly site‐specific. Accretion rates vary largely at sites within distances of a few tens of meters, being controlled by local elevation and sediment availability from eroding marsh edges; (c) vegetation responds species‐specifically to changes in environmental forcings by modifying species‐preferential elevation ranges. For the first time, we observe the consistency of a sequential vegetation‐species zonation with increasing marsh elevations over 20 years. We suggest this is the signature of vegetation resilience to changes in external forcings. Our results highlight a strong coupling between geomorphological and ecological dynamics and call for spatially distributed marsh monitoring and spatially explicit biomorphodynamic models of marsh evolution.

A unified conceptual model of coastal response to accelerating sea level rise, Florida, U.S.A.

Aggregation of paleo-environmental data derived from geological investigations conducted on the shoreface and inner shelf of Florida's six coastal geomorphic sectors revealed a common and synchronous response to a decelerating rate of Holocene sea level rise: (1) early Holocene overstep and submergence (∼10–5 mm yr−1), (2) mid-Holocene erosional shoreface retreat (∼2 mm yr−1), and (3) late Holocene stabilization (<1 mm yr−1). Linear best-fit analysis of sea level data collected at 14 NOAA tide gauge stations distributed along the entire Florida coast indicates the rate of sea level rise has accelerated from a historical average of 3.1 mm yr−1 (<1972–2022; range 2.2 to 4.2) to 5.9 mm yr−1 (1993–2022; range 4.8 to 6.9) and 8.2 mm yr−1 during the 21st century (2003–2022; range 7.6 to 10.0). The 21st century rates vary between stations, however all fall within the range of values documented during the early Holocene; a time when Florida's coastline was rapidly transgressed. Recent studies have demonstrated that the destabilizing effects of this acceleration on Florida's coastal geomorphology and ecology are already evident. Rates of rise are expected to continue increasing and this will accelerate the pace and scale of landward translation and submergence of Florida's coastal environment.

Storm response and multi-annual recovery of eight coastal dunes spread along the Atlantic coast of Europe

Coastal dunes are natural barriers against coastal flooding, and represent large sources of sediment to mitigate coastal erosion, besides being a natural habitat for many living beings. Yet, these complex environments are threatened by sea level rise and possibly enhanced storminess in the future. Most of the studies on coastal dune erosion and recovery from storms are either site specific or focus on a short-time scale, from months to a couple of years. Here, airborne LiDAR data collected from 2011 to 2020 at eight diverse coastal dunes, spread from NW England to SW France, were analysed to study their response, and recovery from the most energetic extreme storms wave conditions since at least 1948. Results show that the 2013/14 winter was the first or second largest erosive event (from −14 to −290 m3/m dune volume loss) from 2011 to 2020 at all sites. The magnitude of storm-driven sand volume loss was mainly controlled by dune face slope (r = 0.84). Dunes with steeper pre-storm slopes lost the largest volumes of sand. At a dune scale, the scarping height was also well correlated to the dune face slope at sites where storm response was characterized by limited alongshore variability. Dune recovery was site specific (no recovery, partial, complete, excess), with dunes that either progressively returned to their pre-storm morphology or were reshaped while recovering. Percentage of dune sand volume recovery was well correlated to the local and long-term satellite-derived shoreline change rate computed from 1984 to 2021 (r = 0.81), suggesting that dune recovery is mainly controlled by the local coastal sediment budget. The rate of dune crest elevation increase (from 4.2 to 12 cm/year) at four of the study sites from 2011 to 2020, largely exceeded sea level rise rate over the past decade (3.3 ± 0.7 mm/year). These results provide key insight into the contrasting resilience of some of the most exposed coastal dunes along the Atlantic coast that recover at different rates following the same sequence of extreme storms.

Coastal vulnerability assessment for the coast of Tamil Nadu, India-a geospatial approach.

A coastal region is a section of land that borders a significant body of water, often the sea or ocean. Despite their productivity, they are sensitive to even little alterations in the outside environment. This study aims to develop a spatial coastal vulnerability index (CVI) map for the Tamil Nadu coast of India, which has diverse coastal and marine environments that are ecologically fragile zones. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of severe coastal hazards, such as rising sea levels, cyclones, storm surges, tsunamis, erosion, and accretion, severely impacting local environmental and socio-economic conditions. This research employed expert knowledge, weights, and scores from the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to create vulnerability maps. The process includes the integration of various parameters such as geomorphology, Land use and land cover (LULC), significant wave height (SWH), rate of sea level rise (SLR), shoreline change (SLC), bathymetry, elevation, and coastal inundation. Based on the results, the very low, low, and moderate vulnerability regions comprise 17.26%, 30.77%, and 23.46%, respectively, whereas the high and very high vulnerability regions comprise 18.20% and 10.28%, respectively. The several locations tend to be high and very highdue to land-use patterns and coastal structures, but very few are contributed by geomorphological features. The results are validated by conducting a field survey in a few locations along the coast. Thus, this study establishes a framework for decision-makers to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation actions in coastal zones.

The sea level rose fast, but Sarawak was rising faster

Since the end of the last glacial period, around 15550 years ago, melting ice caused the sea level to rise on average by about 110 m, or 7 mm/year. Data collected at the Tusan Cliff section indicate that during the same time span, the Borneo coastline south of Miri was elevated by 132 m. The average rate of uplift of the coastline was estimated to be in the order of 8.5 mm/year, which exceeded the average rate of sea level rise by 1.5 mm. As a result, a prominent cliff section is now exposed. The uplift may be continuing today but may be outpaced in the future by a much faster sea-level rise.

A coupled wave-hydrodynamical model to assess the effect of Mediterranean storms under climate change: The Calabaia case study

Climate change will have an undeniable influence on coastal areas, resulting in increased rates of both sea level rise and storm-related impacts. In this context, it is crucial to estimate the local probable extreme sea wave conditions, to properly reproduce the sea state and the coastal hydrodynamic, and to investigate the effectiveness of sea defenses under sea level rise. This work describes the first steps towards an innovative fully coupled modeling system composed of a wind-sea wave (SWAN) and hydrodynamic model (2DEF). Numerical simulations, focusing on the shoreline of Calabaia, Cosenza, Italy, have been compared to the MIKE model outcomes in the same area. The simulations have been performed to investigate the inshore sea wave characteristics, to assess the effectiveness of the actual sea defense interventions, and to identify the impact of extreme storms, by combining sea level rise and extreme sea wave scenarios with the most recent georeferenced territorial data. The models are two-way coupled at half-hourly intervals exchanging the following fields: 2D sea level, surface currents and bottom elevation are transferred from 2DEF to SWAN; sea wave characteristics computed by SWAN is then passed to 2DEF by modifying the radiation stress.

Simulation and Prediction of Sea Level Rise Impact on the Distribution of Mangrove and Spartina alterniflora in Coastal China

Sea level rise (SLR) has a significant impact on the vegetation ecosystem in coastal wetlands. Taking coastal China as the study area, the SLAMM (sea level rise affecting marsh model) was used to simulate the continuous long-term (2015–2100) effects of the spatiotemporal changes in mangrove and Spartina alterniflora in the four shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) of sea level rise by 2100; then, ArcGis was used to assess and compare the impact of SLR on land use. The results are as follows. (1) The dramatic reduction in the vegetation area is positively correlated with the rate of sea level rise. (2) Tidal differences and sedimentation rates affect the response of mangrove and S. alterniflora distribution to sea level rise, as well as interactions between organisms. (3) The reasonable land use of coastal wetlands is important to researchers. Land use is one of the tools for effective mangrove conservation. In conclusion, in scientific research and production practice, it is important to combine the biotic and abiotic factors affecting the distribution of mangroves and S. alterniflora.

Disruptive Role of Vertical Land Motion in Future Assessments of Climate Change‐Driven Sea‐Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Hazards in the Chesapeake Bay

AbstractFuture projections of sea‐level rise (SLR) used to assess coastal flooding hazards and exposure throughout the 21st century and devise risk mitigation efforts often lack an accurate estimate of coastal vertical land motion (VLM) rate, driven by anthropogenic or non‐climate factors in addition to climatic factors. The Chesapeake Bay (CB) region of the United States is experiencing one of the fastest rates of relative sea‐level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United States. This study uses a combination of space‐borne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR) data sets, available National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long‐term tide gauge data, and SLR projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), AR6 WG1 to quantify the regional rate of relative SLR and future flooding hazards for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. By the year 2100, the total inundated areas from SLR and subsidence are projected to be 454(316–549)–600(535–690) for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1–1.9 to 5–8.5, respectively, and 342(132–552)–627(526–735) only from SLR. The effect of storm surges based on Hurricane Isabel can increase the inundated area to 849(832–867)–1,117(1,054–1,205) km2 under different VLM and SLR scenarios. We suggest that accurate estimates of VLM rate, such as those obtained here, are essential to revise IPCC projections and obtain accurate maps of coastal flooding and inundation hazards. The results provided here inform policymakers when assessing hazards associated with global climate changes and local factors in CB, required for developing risk management and disaster resilience plans.

Peak Water Levels Rise Less Than Mean Sea Level in Tidal Channels Subject to Depth Convergence by Deepening

AbstractEffects of sea‐level rise (SLR) on future peak water levels in tidal deltas and estuaries are largely unknown, despite these areas being densely populated and at high risk of flooding. While the rates of SLR accelerate, many channels simultaneously experience channel deepening for navigation. With globally decreasing sediment supplies, most channels are at risk of becoming deeper when the rate of SLR accelerates and sedimentation cannot keep pace with SLR. These factors potentially favor amplification of the tides and thereby increase flood risk, but the extent to which they will do so is unknown. Here, we introduce and use a validated model for an artificially deepened multi‐branch delta to get a mechanistic understanding of non‐linear SLR‐effects on peak water levels. Results show that, when the current deepened bed level will be maintained, peak water levels do not rise on par with mean sea‐level. Thus flood risk increases less than what can be expected from the predictions of the mean sea‐level increase. The reason is that SLR causes a proportional reduction in convergence of channel area. This mechanism reduces tidal amplification. Nevertheless, SLR effects extend far beyond the range of present‐day seasonal variations, with future low water levels being equal to present‐day high water levels, while the tidal range slightly reduces. This will have consequences not only for flood risk, but also for freshwater availability, navigation and ecology.

Restoration and resilience to sea level rise of a salt marsh affected by dieback events

AbstractThe frequency of salt marsh dieback events has increased over the last 25 years with unknown consequences to the resilience of the ecosystem to accelerated sea level rise (SLR). Salt marsh ecosystems impacted by sudden vegetation dieback events were previously thought to recover naturally within a few months to years. In this study, we used a 13‐year collection of remotely sensed imagery to provide evidence that approximately 14% of total marsh area has not revegetated 10 years after a dieback event in Charleston, SC. Dieback onset coincided with a severe drought in 2012, as indicated by the Palmer drought stress index. A second dieback event occurred in 2016 after a historic flood influenced by Hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Unvegetated zones reached nearly 30% of the total marsh area in 2017. We used a light detection and ranging‐derived digital elevation model to determine that most affected areas were associated with lower elevation zones in the interior of the marsh. Further, restoration by grass planting was effective, with pilot‐scale restored plots having greater aboveground biomass than reference sites after two years of transplanting. A positive outcome indicated that the stressors that caused the dieback are no longer present. Despite that, many affected areas have not recovered naturally, even though they are located within the typical elevation range of healthy marshes. A mechanistic modeling approach was used to assess the effects of vegetation dieback on salt marsh resilience to SLR. Predictions indicate that a highly productive restored marsh (2000 g m−2 year−1) would persist at a moderate SLR rate of 60 cm in 100 years, whereas a nonrestored mudflat would lose all its elevation capital after 100 years. Thus, rapid restoration of marsh dieback is critical to avoid further degradation. Also, failure to incorporate the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events that trigger irreversible marsh diebacks underestimates salt marsh vulnerability to climate change. Finally, at an elevated SLR rate of 122 cm in 100 years, which is most likely an extreme climate change scenario, even highly productive ecosystems augmented by sediment placement would not keep pace with SLR. Thus, climate change mitigation actions are also urgently needed to preserve present‐day marsh ecosystems.

The potential for stabilizing Amundsen Sea glaciers via underwater curtains.

Rapid sea level rise due to an ice sheet collapse has the potential to be extremely damaging the coastal communities and infrastructure. Blocking deep warm water with thin flexible buoyant underwater curtains may reduce melting of buttressing ice shelves and thereby slow the rate of sea level rise. Here, we use new multibeam bathymetric datasets, combined with a cost-benefit model, to evaluate potential curtain routes in the Amundsen Sea. We organize potential curtain routes along a "difficulty ladder" representing an implementation pathway that might be followed as technological capabilities improve. The first curtain blocks a single narrow (5 km) submarine choke point that represents the primary warm water inflow route towards western Thwaites Glacier, the most vulnerable part of the most vulnerable glacier in Antarctica. Later curtains cross larger and deeper swaths of seabed, thus increasing their cost, while also protecting more of the ice sheet, increasing their benefit. In our simple cost-benefit analysis, all of the curtain routes achieve their peak value at target blocking depths between 500 and 550 m. The favorable cost-benefit ratios of these curtain routes, along with the trans-generational and societal equity of preserving the ice sheets near their present state, argue for increased research into buoyant curtains as a means of ice sheet preservation, including high-resolution fluid-structural and oceanographic modeling of deep water flow over and through the curtains, and coupled ice-ocean modeling of the dynamic response of the ice sheet.

Storm sediment contribution to salt marsh accretion and expansion

Salt marshes are ecosystems with significant economic and environmental value. However, the accelerating rate of sea-level rise is a significant threat to these ecosystems. Storms significantly contribute to the sediment budget of salt marshes, playing a critical role in salt marsh survival to sea-level rise. There are, however, uncertainties on the extent to which storms contribute sediments to different areas of marsh platforms (e.g., outer marsh vs marsh interior) and on the sediment sources that storms draw on (e.g., offshore vs nearshore). This study uses field analyses from an eight-month field campaign in the Ribble Estuary, North-West England, to understand storms' influence on the sediment supply to different marsh areas and whether storms can deliver new material onto the salt marsh platform which would otherwise not be sourced in fair-weather conditions. Field data from sediment traps indicate that storm activity caused an increase in inorganic sediment supply to the whole salt marsh platform, especially benefitting the marsh interior. Geochemistry and particle size distribution analysis indicate that the majority of the sediment supplied to the salt marsh platform during the stormy periods was generated by an increase in erosion and resuspension of mudflat and tidal creek sediments, while only a minimal contribution was given by the sediments transported from outside the intertidal system. This suggests that, in the long term, storms will promote salt marsh vertical accretion but might simultaneously reduce the overall larger-scale sediment availability with implications for the marsh lateral retreat.

High-Resolution Multiproxy Record of Environmental Changes and Anthropogenic Activities at Unguja Ukuu, Zanzibar, Tanzania during the Last 5000 Years

A high-resolution multiproxy sedimentary record comprising pollen, charcoal, trace element, stratigraphy and particle size data is used to reveal environmental changes from the mangrove ecosystem at Unguja Ukuu, Zanzibar, Tanzania, over the last 5000 years. Historical human–environment interactions over the last millennia are explored by a comparison of the stratigraphic and archaeological data. The area was characterised by a mixture of mangrove forest and beaches, indicating a low level of tidal inundation to at least 3300 BCE. From 2750 BCE, mangrove forest expanded as the area experienced sea-level rise. Further sea-level rise is recorded between 600 and 1100 CE, indicated by the pollen record, particle size analysis and the presence of shell fragments. After 1100 CE, mangrove forest decreased with back mangrove species increasing, indicating a falling sea level. Cocos nucifera decreased after 1900 CE, which reflects a recent sea-level rise and possibly a phase of exploitation. Cereal pollen shows a high presence at around 1500 CE, which coincided with the arrival of the Portuguese on Zanzibar and the transition to Omani colonisation. The sedimentation rate in the core top indicates that mangroves in Unguja Ukuu cannot keep pace with the current rate of sea-level rise.

Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink

Ecosystem connectivity tends to increase the resilience and function of ecosystems responding to stressors. Coastal ecosystems sequester disproportionately large amounts of carbon, but rapid exchange of water, nutrients, and sediment makes them vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Individual components of the coastal landscape (i.e., marsh, forest, bay) have contrasting responses to sea level rise, making it difficult to forecast the response of the integrated coastal carbon sink. Here we couple a spatially-explicit geomorphic model with a point-based carbon accumulation model, and show that landscape connectivity, in-situ carbon accumulation rates, and the size of the landscape-scale coastal carbon stock all peak at intermediate sea level rise rates despite divergent responses of individual components. Progressive loss of forest biomass under increasing sea level rise leads to a shift from a system dominated by forest biomass carbon towards one dominated by marsh soil carbon that is maintained by substantial recycling of organic carbon between marshes and bays. These results suggest that climate change strengthens connectivity between adjacent coastal ecosystems, but with tradeoffs that include a shift towards more labile carbon, smaller marsh and forest extents, and the accumulation of carbon in portions of the landscape more vulnerable to sea level rise and erosion.

Recent Acceleration of Wetland Accretion and Carbon Accumulation Along the U.S. East Coast

AbstractThe long‐term stability of coastal wetlands is determined by interactions among sea level, plant primary production, sediment supply, and wetland vertical accretion. Human activities in watersheds have significantly altered sediment delivery from the landscape to the coastal ocean, with declines along much of the U.S. East Coast. Tidal wetlands in coastal systems with low sediment supply may have limited ability to keep pace with accelerating rates of sea‐level rise (SLR). Here, we show that rates of vertical accretion and carbon accumulation in nine tidal wetland systems along the U.S. East Coast from Maine to Georgia can be explained by differences in the rate of relative SLR (RSLR), the concentration of suspended sediments in the rivers draining to the coast, and temperature in the coastal region. Further, we show that rates of vertical accretion have accelerated over the past century by between 0.010 and 0.083 mm yr−2, at roughly the same pace as the acceleration of global SLR. We estimate that rates of carbon sequestration in these wetland soils have accelerated (more than doubling at several sites) along with accelerating accretion. Wetland accretion and carbon accumulation have accelerated more rapidly in coastal systems with greater relative RSLR, higher watershed sediment availability, and lower temperatures. These findings suggest that the biogeomorphic feedback processes that control accretion and carbon accumulation in these tidal wetlands have responded to accelerating RSLR, and that changes to RSLR, watershed sediment supply, and temperature interact to determine wetland vulnerability across broad geographic scales.

Climate Change and The Persistence of Coral-Reef Development in Upwelling Zones

Upwelling exerts a major control on coral-reef development in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP). Upwelling zones exhibit conditions that are detrimental to coral growth, such as low sea-surface temperatures and high levels of turbidity. During the late Holocene, the reefs in the strongly upwelling Gulf of Panamá (GoP) and the weakly upwelling Gulf of Chiriquí (GoC) experienced a climate-driven hiatus in coral growth and reef development, and strong upwelling exacerbated this hiatus in the GoP. Strong upwelling in the GoP is now acting as a buffer against thermal stress, providing a refuge from climatic warming, whereas corals in the GoC are highly vulnerable to increased thermal stress. Using ecological surveys and paleoecological data, we quantified calcification and bioerosion processes for the reefs in these two gulfs to develop carbonate-budget models. We determined the reef-accretion potential (RAP) for reefs in each gulf to project their capacity to keep pace with current and predicted future rates of sea-level rise. On average, reefs in the GoP exhibited an average RAP of 5.5 mm yr-1, which would be enough to keep pace with future rates of sea-level rise if CO2 emissions were reduced under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 4.5. In contrast, reefs in the GoC exhibited an average RAP of only 0.3 mm yr-1, which is not even enough to keep pace with contemporary rates of sea-level rise in Panamá (1.4 mm yr-1). Furthermore, even if the reefs in either gulf could achieve 100% coral cover, none of them has the capacity to keep pace with RCP 8.5. Although the GoP should support reef development in the near future, reducing greenhouse-gas emissions will be essential to ensure the persistence of accreting reefs and promote the recovery of those vulnerable to net erosion.

Paleo-Biological Approaches to Present Day Wetland Ecosystem Restoration Problems

Establishing historic conditions of a site is frequently the first step in ecosystem restoration. Whether restoration to historic conditions is possible or not, recognition of change and the cause of change is critical information. Three different wetland restoration problems are addressed by paleo-biological methods. Chrono-stratigraphy was instrumental in all three cases, 210Pb at the decadal and radiocarbon for the century to millennial scale questions. In order to document salinity, change in the Southeast Saline Everglades molluscan assemblages were utilized as a proxy for salinity. Vertical changes in cores established that beginning in ~ 1900 salinity increased with the Anthropocene Marine Transgression. The freshwater-marine contact in all cores was identified and the contacts dated. The differences in time between two adjacent cores and the distance between them was utilized to determine the rate of saltwater encroachment, documenting that not all coastal basins exhibited the same rate and that the rate increased over time in response to the accelerating rate of sea-level rise, increasing from the pre-1960 rate of ~ 20 m yr-1 to &gt; 80 m yr-1 between 1995 and 2017. This shift in regime suggests that present restoration activities are inadequate. Soon after Audubon acquired Corkscrew Swamp to preserve the largest remaining wood stork rookery, the swamp was diked to hold surface water because it was believed that surrounding land development was adversely impacting swamp hydroperiod. However, by 1970 cypress regeneration was severely reduced and hydrology and sediment core studies were initiated in an attempt to understand the driver of the change. Core analysis revealed that hydroperiod increased upwards terminating in patchy open-water peats, based upon pollen analysis, previous peat analysis and tissue recognition. Open-water peats indicate no drawdown, eliminating cypress germination. Cypress regeneration began soon after removal of the dike.