Rapid Economic Recovery Research Articles

Financial strategy in the public governance system

Relevance of the research topic. The current stage of socio-economic development of both countries with developed and transformational economies is characterized by uncertainty of the external environment, intensification of globalization processes, which raises the issue of substantiation of financial strategy, specification of its tasks and development of tools for their solution. Formulation of the problem. With increasing volatility of socio-economic dynamics, the COVID-19 pandemic raises the need to develop a public financial strategy that will improve the quality of fiscal risk assessment, develop tools to minimize them, increase coordination of public authorities, reduce unproductive government spending. Analysis of recent research and publications. Problems of formation and implementation of financial strategy in the system of public administration are revealed in many scientific researches of domestic and foreign scientists: J. Keynes, P. Samuelson, J. Stiglitz, S. Kucherenko, L. Levaeva, L. Lysyak, I. Lukyanenko, L. Marmul, V. Makogon, V. Fedosova, I. Chugunova and others. Selection of unexplored parts of the general problem. Increasing volatility of socio-economic dynamics impairs the chances of rapid economic recovery. In this regard, an important task is to develop a public financial strategy aimed at implementing measures to minimize fiscal risks. Problem statement, research goals. The objectives of the study are: to substantiate the role of financial strategy in the system of public administration in conditions of increasing volatility of socio-economic dynamics, the COVID-19 pandemic; to determine the features of the formation and implementation of financial strategy in the system of public administration; to analyze and estimate state budget expenditures. The purpose of the study is to reveal and substantiate approaches to the formation and implementation of financial strategy in the public administration system. Method or methodology of the study. To achieve the goal of the article, a set of general scientific and special methods was used: theoretical generalization and comparison; systemic; comparative analysis; scientific abstraction. Presentation of the main material (results of work). The role of financial strategy in the system of public administration in the conditions of increasing volatility of socio-economic dynamics, pandemic COVID-19 is revealed. Peculiarities of formation and implementation of financial strategy in the system of public administration are determined. The analysis and estimation of state budget expenditures is carried out. Approaches to the formation and implementation of financial strategy in the public administration system are substantiated. Field of application of results. The results of the study can be used in the process of reforming the financial system and its components. Conclusions in accordance with the article. The formation and implementation of a sound public financial strategy is a prerequisite for ensuring the stability of macroeconomic dynamics through the synergy of tools of the components of the public administration system, the development of tools to minimize fiscal risks.

National Governance Capacity from the View of Comparative Political Economy – Based on the Fight Against COVID-19

At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 has blocked the pace of the world economic development. In the process of fighting the epidemic, different countries have formulated different policies and showed different effects from fighting it. After the end of COVID-19, the rapid social and economic recovery as well as their development require scientific and effective governance from all countries. From the perspective of comparative political economy theory, taking the COVID-19 epidemic as an example, this article points out the advantages and deficiencies of the national governance capacity, as well as seek ways to improve the national governance capacity.

Money multiplier under Basel capital ratio regulation: implications for counter-COVID-19 stimulus

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 induced the central bankers to search the most efficient stimulus measures. As a solution, they made an unprecedented step. They lifted down the reserve requirement (RR) to zero. This was done in the United States [FRS. 2020. “Federal Reserve Actions to Support the Flow of Credit to Households and Businesses.” Accessed February 10, 2021. Board of the Governors of the Federal Reserve System] and Morocco [BKAM. 2020. “Monetary Policy Report No. 55.” Accessed from Central Bank of Morocco Website]. The existing monetary theory literature suggests that the broad money supply should go to infinity as a result. Then we may expect the rapid economic recovery. However, this may not come true. The novelty of this paper is the development of the money multiplier theory. We explain why a step to set the RR at zero may boost (though slight) the cash-intensive economy (like Morocco) and may not deliver any benefit to a mostly cashless one (like the US, Canada, or the EU).

TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS «CHINA-EUROPE EXPRESS» IN THE CONDITIONS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS

In the article the author examines the current state, including the problems of the development of international transport corridors running from China to the countries of the European region. The proposal and development of the Belt and Road Cooperation Initiative by the Sino-European Railway Express has played a pivotal role in promoting trade of China and Europe and the countries along the route. The author shows the features of the development of economic relations after the new coronavirus epidemic in 2020. To stimulate the rapid economic recovery of the countries along the route, the PRC came up with a new concept of dual domestic and international cycles, and the China-Europe Express became an important transport link connecting China, Central Asia, Central and North Asia and Europe. The author of the article notes that the initiative from the Chinese side has become an important engine of global economic growth, taking advantage of the " One Belt - One Road " policy. However, excessive operating costs, asymmetric market information, underdeveloped infrastructure along the route, and heavy reliance on government subsidies limit the sustainable development of China-Europe railway transit routes. In the context of international economic relations, this article analyzes the many challenges facing China-Europe Railway Express, and the author proposes appropriate solutions and proposals to prove the prospects for the development of the above-named project. Key words: International trade; China-Europe Express; world economy; dual circulation strategy; Chang’an train; One Belt – One Road project; countermeasures; infrastructure, government subsidies.

Directions of development of the public finance management system

Relevance of the research topic. In modern conditions of society development, the restoration of balanced economic growth to improve the standard and quality of life of the population is an important strategic priority of the public financial management system. Achieving this priority involves the implementation of a set of consistent and interconnected institutional changes in the public finance system, aimed at systematically increasing the level of competitiveness of the domestic economy, reducing its dependence on external conditions. Formulation of the problem. The impact of adverse external and internal factors on the domestic public finance system has led to increasing macroeconomic imbalances, reduced domestic consumption and investment. This highlighted the issue of adapting the public financial management system to the new socio-economic conditions of the country's development. Analysis of recent research and publications. The problem of improving the quality of public finance management system is revealed in many scientific studies of domestic and foreign scientists: J. Keynes, P. Samuelson, J. Stiglitz, S. Kucherenko, L. Levaeva, L. Lysyak, I. Lukyanenko, L. Marmul, V. Makogon,V. Fedosov, I. Chugunov and others. Selection of unexplored parts of the general problem. A new wave of negative external and internal factors, in particular the COVID-19 pandemic, is exacerbating Ukraine's rapid economic recovery. Against the background of the recession, the prospects for economic growth are difficult. There is a high level of uncertainty about the stability and stability of the public finance system. In this regard, an important task is the rapid implementation of adaptive measures of the public financial management system aimed at activating new factors of economic growth. It is necessary to ensure balanced economic development by increasing the level of factor productivity, increasing the efficiency of financial and budgetary tools, improving the institutional structure of the public finance system. Problem statement, research goals. The objectives of the study are: to substantiate the role of public financial management in enhancing the country's economic growth in terms of increasing the impact of negative internal and external factors; identify the features of the public finance management system; to analyze and evaluate the operations of the general government sector of Ukraine. The aim of the study is to reveal the vectors of development of the public financial management system in modern conditions. Method or methodology of the study. To achieve the goal of the article, a set of general scientific and special methods was used: theoretical generalization and comparison; systemic; comparative analysis; scientific abstraction. Presentation of the main material (results of work). The role of the public financial management system in intensifying the pace of economic growth of the country in the conditions of increasing influence of negative internal and external factors is revealed. The peculiarities of the public finance management system are determined. The analysis and assessment of operations of the general government sector of Ukraine is carried out. The vectors of development of the public finance management system in modern conditions are revealed. Field of application of results. The results of the study can be used in the process of reforming the public financial management system. Conclusions in accordance with the article. Public finance management at a qualitatively new level in the context of increasing negative external and internal factors, in particular the COVID-19 pandemic will ensure macroeconomic stability in the country through a combination of tools of the public administration system. An effective public financial management system will create conditions for the country's economic growth.

Study on indirect economic impacts and their causes of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

In terms of events that undermine economic growth, the impact of natural disasters is huge and inevitable. Taking the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake as the research object, and based on the country-year data for 181 counties in Sichuan Province from 1999 to 2018, this paper uses the dynamic difference-in-difference method to investigate the indirect impact of this event on the economy. The main findings are as follows: Even though the central government has introduced reconstruction policies and invested a lot of reconstruction funds, in 2018, the per capita income in the extremely and relatively severe disaster areas was still significantly lower than the counterfactual by 21.96% and 7.61%, respectively. There is heterogeneity in the long-term indirect impacts in areas with different disaster levels, and the economies of the extremely severe disaster areas may form a "poverty trap," while the economies of the relatively severe disaster areas are still in a slow recovery state. It was further found that the assistance of central government’s reconstruction funds and the increase in local government expenditure are the reasons for the rapid economic recovery in the short term, and the insufficient level of total demand caused by the investment and consumption is the main reasons for the negative indirect impact on the economy in the disaster areas.

MONETARY REGIMES, MONEY SUPPLY, AND THE USA BUSINESS CYCLE SINCE 1959: IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY TODAY

The monetary authority’s choice of operating procedure has significant implications for the role of monetary aggregates and interest rate policy on the business cycle. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that the type of endogenous monetary regime, together with the interaction between money supply and demand, does well to capture the actual behavior of a monetary economy—the USA. The results suggest that the evolution toward a stricter interest rate-targeting regime renders central bank balance sheet expansions ineffective. In the context of the 2007–2009 Great Recession, a more flexible interest rate-targeting regime would have led to a significant monetary expansion and more rapid economic recovery in the USA.

What do we (not) know about the effectiveness of the monetary policy tools in the modern world?

Monetary policy played a dominant role in ensuring macroeconomic stability in the advanced economies for two decades, from the mid-1980s to 2007, and appeared to be a very effective tool for smoothing economic cycles and maintaining price stability. After the global financial crisis of 2007—2009 the effectiveness of monetary policy was put under question, since it did not succeed in ensuring rapid economic recovery in the advanced economies despite massive use of both conventional and unconventional monetary tools. The paper addresses the factors which are responsible for the weakening of the monetary policy effectiveness including global disinflation, the Phillips curve flattening, the effective lower bound problem and the neutral real rate decline. Unconventional monetary policy tools, such as the “helicopter money”, targeted refinancing and other prospective tools, are analyzed. We critically assess recommendations of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) as the most consistent heterodox theory. Based on the analysis, we draw conclusions about the possibility of monetary policy weakening in Russia in the foreseeable future and desirability of the implementation of the hybrid fiscal-monetary measures.

ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ РОЗВИТКУ ЛОГІСТИЧНОГО УПРАВЛІННЯ В УМОВАХ ПАНДЕМІЇ COVID-19

Статтю присвячено вивченню сценаріїв виходу логістичної індустрії з економічної кризи, спричиненої пандемією COVID-19, а також дослідженню перспектив розвитку логістичного управління в умовах постепідемічної реальності. Показано, що COVID-19 став визначальним фактором світового скорочення обсягів виробництва і торгівлі у 2020 р. Разом із тим після першого локдауну відбулося поступове відновлення темпів виробництва, і стали можливими декілька сценаріїв подальшого розвитку подій. Показано потенційні загрози, що супроводжують кожен із сценаріїв, що може бути корисним для логістичних компаній, які займаються стратегічним плануванням. Виявлено, що активно розвивається ринок логістичних послуг для кінцевих споживачів (B2C), причинами чого є перехід людей на роботу в онлайн, зміна купівельних звичок у напрямі здійснення покупок через Інтернет. Виявлено, що логістичні компанії в умовах пандемії зосереджують увагу на трьох основних маркерах: безпеці, економічній ефективності і комунікаціях із клієнтами.

Entrepreneurship Culture: Export Technologies, Strategies and Promoting Ukrainian Goods to the Market of the Ottoman Empire (Late 19th–Early 20th Centuries)

The article examines export techniques, strategies, and promoting Ukrainian goods to the market of the Ottoman Empire in the late 19th – early 20th centuries. That historical period was chosen not by chance, but because there was a rapid economic recovery in Ukraine then. Although there was no a state but Ukrainian was part of the Russian Empire, a corporate community of Ukrainian entrepreneurs (representative organizations) was formed, and Ukrainian lands became the leading production region of the empire, it linked all those involved in trade relations with grains, sugar, coal, and mineral resources. The excess of production over the volume of the domestic consumer market encouraged entrepreneurs to export these goods, primarily to the nearest foreign markets. The market of the Ottoman Empire was determined as a priority in that respect. The study of the export direction of commercial activity of Ukrainian entrepreneurs became possible as a result of attracting a wide range of sources including “Government and business statistical directories, office documents of representative organizations, articles from periodicals of that time, archival materials”. Export techniques of Ukrainian businessmen were analyzed in the article as one of the components of business culture, and consists in introducing organizational and logistical techniques for export tasks, studying global experience, and using the most successful and effective mechanisms to influence the process of invading foreign markets. The paper shows that Ukrainian entrepreneurs had resorted to a variety of tools to promote their products including renting space in Turkey and participating in the "Floating Exhibition". The article concludes that, despite all efforts, Ukrainian entrepreneurs lost in competition with more developed countries and they had to pay attention to the increased domestic demand. The idea of Ukrainian trade and industry to organize a permanent trade mission in Istanbul in the form of a chamber of commerce, which originated in the early 20th century, it is implemented at the present stage of mutually beneficial partnership between Ukraine and Turkey.

Corona Crisis Tendencies in the European Economy: New Challenges, Risks, Expectations

In the introduction of the article, the authors argued the critical relevance of the subject under consideration and described results of studies conducted both by international organizations and individual experts assessing the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic for the European Union and the available information and methodological foundations of a qualitative study of the current COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The article describes in detail the economic consequences of a coronavirus attack for the European region. The authors analyzed the main barriers to rapid economic recovery, the effects of the European Commission’s anti-crisis actions, short-term trends, forecasts of international organizations, and risks that emerged in the first half of 2020. According to the authors, many anti-crisis measures were taken in the region too gradually and heterogeneously across countries. Economic uncertainty and risks are still high. The divergence of countries, associated with the exit from the coronavirus crisis, is increasing. The authors also analyzed well-known composite indicators of business cycle surveys that reflect the short-term changes in economic sentiments of entrepreneurs and consumers in the European Union and the euro area and are published more quickly than traditional quantitative observations. The authors’ assessments are confirmed by the results of surveys conducted by international and national organizations, which indicate that all negative trends that characterize the «economic anxiety» of European managers and consumers have begun to slow down.

Напрями забезпечення стійкості економіки в умовах глобальної фінансової нестабільності

The financial instability of the world economic space and the accelerated changes in the structure of its socio-economic environment affect the development of national economies in conditions of shocks that cause economic losses, disrupt the parameters of the economic system and create the threat of financial and economic crises. In order to respond quickly to the emergence of shocks in the face of global financial instability, the article identifies key areas of resilience. On the example of anti-crisis policies of European countries such as Poland and Germany, it was determined that the key directions of ensuring the resilience of their economies were investment privileges and attractive credit conditions.Poland’s attractive investment climate has ensured a stable growth of its economy after the 2008-2009 crisis. The GDP per capita GDP growth rate in 2008-2017 was 37.48%.The introduction of an attractive lending system in Germany has ensured a rapid post-crisis economic recovery. The GDP per capita growth rate of Germany in 2008-2017 was 25.01%. For Ukraine, during the period of the financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 and the crisis that began in 2014, credit was used to support financial stability. Against the backdrop of falling foreign exchange reserves, devaluation of the national currency, Ukraine was motivated to cooperate with the IMF. For the period from 2008 to 2018, Ukraine was allocated under the IMF lending programs - $ 66 billion, but in fact, $ 27 billion was transferred due to Ukraine’s failure to fulfill its obligations. The GDP per capita growth rate of Ukraine in 2008-2017 was 3.12%. IMF financial assistance is one of the key areas for resilience of economy, as it involves systemic socio-economic reforms. Effective implementation of reforms will ensure economic growth and return investors’ interest in the Ukrainian economy.

Monetary Regimes, Money Supply, and the US Business Cycle since 1959

The monetary authority’s choice of operating procedure has significant implications for the role of monetary aggregates and interest rate policy on the business cycle. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that the type of endogenous monetary regime, together with the interaction between money supply and demand, captures well the actual behavior of a monetary economy—the United States. The results suggest that the evolution toward a stricter interest rate–targeting regime renders central bank balance-sheet expansions ineffective. In the context of the 2007–2009 Great Recession, a more flexible interest rate–targeting regime would have led to a significant monetary expansion and more rapid economic recovery in the United States.

The Western Balkans: Weak performance since the crisis

In the early and mid-2000s, the prospect of EU accession and the global boom facilitated rapid economic recovery and boosted economic and institutional reforms in the Western Balkan region. The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and the European crisis of 2010–2013 slowed the pace of economic growth and amplified high unemployment in the region. In addition, various unresolved legacies from past conflicts slowed the pace of reform and progress towards EU accession. The European Commission’s February 2018 communication sets an indicative deadline (2025) for the two most advanced candidates – Serbia’s and Montenegro’s admission to the EU. This could incentivise all Western Balkan countries, including those candidates that have not yet started membership negotiations (Macedonia and Albania) and those waiting for candidate status (Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo), to remove domestic political obstacles to EU accession, solve conflicts with neighbours, speed up reforms and accelerate economic growth.

Ярмарочная торговля в Забайкалье в последней трети XVIII – первой четверти XX в.: этапы развития

As a result of distance barriers of Transbaikalia from industrial centers and the underdevelopment of communications, fair trade for a long time became the main form of commercial entrepreneurship. In its development, it went through three stages. The first was before the Trans-Siberian Railway construction, when, in the absence of stationary forms of trade, it experienced a period of flourishing and dominated completely. The second was after its construction, when fair volumes declined, fair trade was decentralized: a large number of small fairs in villages replaced the large fairs. However, in general, fair trade retained its value and even expanded the network. The task of rapid economic recovery after the Civil War demanded the revival of fair trade, in which private traders took the first positions. However, having played a role in the restoration of goods/money relationship, the fair form of trade was quickly curtailed in accordance with the policy of the struggle with private capital.

Security sector reform and civil-military relations in postwar Côte d’Ivoire

On June 30, 2017, The United Nations Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (ONUCI) reached the end of its mandate after fourteen years of peacekeeping operations. UN officials and Ivorian national leaders framed ONUCI’s departure as another positive step in the country’s postwar recovery, declaring that the return to peace was ‘irreversible’.1 In some ways, this enthusiasm appeared warranted. Since the end of the Second Ivorian Civil War in 2011, which culminated in the arrest of former President Laurent Gbagbo by rebel troops formerly known as the Forces nouvelles, the country has experienced rapid economic recovery: GDP growth averaged 9 percent from 2012 to 2016.2 Government and UN officials have touted the success of the country’s disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) programme, which officially processed over 60,000 ex-combatants between 2012 and 2015.3 Within the country’s armed forces, officials point to the integration of former rebels and pro-Gbagbo elements within unified military units as further evidence that Côte d’Ivoire is a model of peacebuilding and security sector reform to be emulated by Africa’s other conflict-torn states.4

The Impact of War on Resource Allocation: “Creative Destruction,” Patenting, and the American Civil War

The large exogenous shock to labor and capital markets, aggregate demand, the distribution of expenditures, and the rate and direction of technological innovation that war often causes can lead to substantial changes in the allocation of resources. Empirical evidence reveals a significant misallocation of resources during the American Civil War, as a result of reduced geographical mobility, greater incentives for individuals with high opportunity cost to switch into the market for military technologies, and decreased financial returns to inventors. However, the rapid economic recovery that ensued after the end of the war suggests that the misallocation was only temporary, not long inhibiting the capacity for future technological progress.

Development of Network-type Archaeological Investigation System

Abstract. The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011 is said to be a once-in-1000-year catastrophic quake. The Tsunami triggered by the earthquake destroyed broad coastal areas in northeast Japan. As recovery from the earthquake proceeds, the demand for new road construction, housing hill development, and residential construction is rapidly increasing. Culture plays a critical role in the district’s recovery. For that reason, before development, cultural properties in the corresponding districts must be urgently investigated. This is a must, although balancing cultural recovery with rapid economic recovery is no easy task. With this in mind, we have developed a new system focusing on speedy archaeological investigation and adequate documentation. The authors reexamined the existing investigation process to categorize tasks into two types: those that must be done only at archaeological sites (site A) and ones available at other places (site B). We then formulated a scheme where the tasks on both sites are performed simultaneously in parallel over the network. Experiments are ongoing. This presentation reports the process and issues of our research and development.

Some reasons for the rapid economic growth of the German Federal Republic

The reasons which have combined to give rise to the rapid economic growth of the German Federal Republic since the middle of 1948 are many, including the most commonly referenced ones such as currency reform, US aid, rejection of a controlled economy, the recasting of the fiscal system, etc. The present article, however, considers some other facts and developments that have played a considerable part in the increase in production in the Federal Republic which have received less attention. These factors, including the existing industrial complex, investments, retirements, growth capacity and productivity of capital, have not only been important but possibly decisive for the rapid economic recovery of the country.

Comparative analysis of factors that encourage foreign direct investment in Serbia and Romania

The importance of foreign direct investment, FDI in rapid economic recovery and further development of Serbia and Romania encouraged the study of these issues in particular through trend research in FDI inflows over the past years, analyzing their structure and sectoral distribution, description of the investment environment and investment incentives. Since 2007, Romania became a full member of the EU and Serbia in 2012 was granted candidate status for membership, thus these countries have become very attractive investment destinations. By applying desk method and method of content analysis in order to collect relevant research data as well as by using descriptive and comparative research methods, defined general and specific research hypotheses will be tested. The scientific problem highlights the importance and many advantages of FDI as one of the most desirable forms of foreign capital investment in Serbia and Romania, and discovers the factors that attract foreign investors in the mentioned countries and lead them to make an investment decision. The subject of this study is to investigate the movements of FDI over the past twenty years, their structure by economic activities, different factors of geographic, economic and socio-political nature which affect the attractiveness of the analyzed countries as investment destinations as well as tax and non-tax incentives which have a strong impact on foreign investors in choosing investment destination. The main objectives of this research are establishing economic sectors that have so far attracted the largest number of foreign investors, highlighting the similarities and differences in tax and non-tax investment incentives among the analyzed countries as well as comparison of trends in Serbia as a candidate for EU membership with the European averages by highlighting key elements that make both analyzed countries attractive investment destinations.