Quasi-biennial Oscillation Response Research Articles

Differences in the quasi-biennial oscillation response to stratospheric aerosol modification depending on injection strategy and species

Abstract. A known adverse side effect of stratospheric aerosol modification (SAM) is the alteration of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which is caused by the stratospheric heating associated with an artificial aerosol layer. Multiple studies found the QBO to slow down or even completely vanish for point-like injections of SO2 at the Equator. The cause for this was found to be a modification of the thermal wind balance and a stronger tropical upwelling. For other injection strategies, different responses of the QBO have been observed. A theory which is able to explain those differences in a comprehensive manner has not yet been presented. This is further complicated by the fact that the simulated QBO response is highly sensitive to the used model even under identical boundary conditions. Therefore, within this study we investigate the response of the QBO to SAM for three different injection strategies (point-like injection at the Equator, point-like injection at 30∘ N and 30∘ S simultaneously, and areal injection into a 60∘ wide belt along the Equator). Our simulations confirm that the QBO response significantly depends on the injection location. Based on the thermal wind balance, we demonstrate that this dependency is explained by differences in the meridional structure of the aerosol-induced stratospheric warming, i.e., the location and meridional extension of the maximum warming. Additionally, we also tested two different injection species (SO2 and H2SO4). The QBO response is qualitatively similar for both investigated injection species. Comparing the results to corresponding results of a second model, we further demonstrate the generality of our theory as well as the importance of an interactive treatment of stratospheric ozone for the simulated QBO response.

Dynamical and Trace Gas Responses of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO2

AbstractLong‐term projections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) remain uncertain. Using the high‐top “Middle Atmosphere” (MA) version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE (E2.2‐AP), we show that increased CO2 reduces the QBO period and weakens its amplitude, consistent with results from recent multimodel studies. The amplitude response is asymmetric, with the easterly phase weakening more than the westerly phase. Results from both coupled atmosphere‐ocean and climatologically fixed sea surface temperature simulations link the period response to changes in parameterized convective gravity wave fluxes, whereas the amplitude changes are more closely tied to changes in tropical upwelling. Comparisons of simulations with and without ozone‐dynamical feedbacks reveal that ozone feedbacks increase the QBO amplitude and period in pre‐industrial control simulations, and reduce the response of the amplitude to increased CO2. The response of stratospheric tracers to projected changes in the QBO is also investigated. Similarity between results using fully interactive (trace gas and aerosol) versus linearized ozone chemical mechanisms suggests that the QBO response to CO2 does not depend on additional chemical feedbacks beyond those associated with ozone, which implies that projected QBO changes may be credibly represented using simplified stratospheric ozone schemes.

Anomalous Dynamics of QBO Disruptions Explained by 1D Theory with External Triggering

AbstractThe quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is an alternating, descending pattern of zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere with a period averaging 28 months. The QBO was disrupted in 2016, and arguably again in 2020, by the formation of an anomalous easterly shear zone, and unprecedented stagnation and ascent of shear zones aloft. Several mechanisms have been implicated in causing the 2016 disruption, most notably triggering by horizontal eddy momentum flux divergence, but also anomalous upwelling and wave stress. In this paper, the 1D theory of the QBO is used to show how seemingly disparate features of disruptions follow directly from the dynamics of the QBO response to triggering. The perturbed QBO is interpreted using a heuristic version of the 1D model, which establishes that 1) stagnation of shear zones aloft resulted from wave dissipation in the shear zone formed by the triggering, and 2) ascent of shear zones aloft resulted from climatological upwelling advecting the stagnant shear zones. Obstacles remain in the theory of triggering. In the 1D theory, the phasing of the triggering is key to determining the response, but the dependence on magnitude is less steep. Yet in MERRA-2, there are triggering events only 20% weaker than the 2016 triggering and equal to the 2020 triggering that did not lead to disruptions. Complicating matters further, MERRA-2 has record-large analysis tendencies during the 2016 disruption, reducing confidence in the resolved momentum budget.

Differing responses of the quasi-biennial oscillation to artificial SO<sub>2</sub> injections in two global models

Abstract. Artificial injections of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere show in several model studies an impact on stratospheric dynamics. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has been shown to slow down or even vanish under higher SO2 injections in the equatorial region. But the impact is only qualitatively but not quantitatively consistent across the different studies using different numerical models. The aim of this study is to understand the reasons behind the differences in the QBO response to SO2 injections between two general circulation models, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM-110L) and MAECHAM5-HAM. We show that the response of the QBO to injections with the same SO2 injection rate is very different in the two models, but similar when a similar stratospheric heating rate is induced by SO2 injections of different amounts. The reason for the different response of the QBO corresponding to the same injection rate is very different vertical advection in the two models, even in the control simulation. The stronger vertical advection in WACCM results in a higher aerosol burden and stronger heating of the aerosols and, consequently, in a vanishing QBO at lower injection rate than in simulations with MAECHAM5-HAM. The vertical velocity increases slightly in MAECHAM5-HAM when increasing the horizontal resolution. This study highlights the crucial role of dynamical processes and helps to understand the large uncertainties in the response of different models to artificial SO2 injections in climate engineering studies.

Mean-Flow Damping Forms the Buffer Zone of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation: 1D Theory

Abstract The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a descending pattern of alternating easterly and westerly winds in the tropical stratosphere. Upwelling is generally understood to counteract the descent of the QBO. The upwelling hypothesis holds that where upwelling exceeds the intrinsic descent rate of the QBO, the QBO cannot descend and a buffer zone forms. Descent-rate models of the QBO, which represent a highly simplified evolution of a QBO wind contour, support the upwelling hypothesis. Here, we show that the upwelling hypothesis and descent-rate models only correctly describe buffer zone formation in the absence of wave dissipation below critical levels. When there is wave dissipation below critical levels, the 1D QBO response to upwelling can be either to 1) reform below the upwelling, 2) undergo period-lengthening collapse, or 3) expand a preexisting buffer zone. The response depends on the location of the upwelling and the lower boundary condition. Mean-flow damping always forms a buffer zone. A previous study of reanalyses showed that there is mean-flow damping in the buffer zone due to horizontal momentum flux divergence. Therefore, the 1D model implicates lateral terms in buffer zone formation that it cannot self-consistently include.

Response of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation to a warming climate in global climate models

AbstractWe compare the response of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) to a warming climate in eleven atmosphere general circulation models that performed time‐slice simulations for present‐day, doubled, and quadrupled CO2 climates. No consistency was found among the models for the QBO period response, with the period decreasing by 8 months in some models and lengthening by up to 13 months in others in the doubled CO2 simulations. In the quadrupled CO2 simulations, a reduction in QBO period of 14 months was found in some models, whereas in several others the tropical oscillation no longer resembled the present‐day QBO, although it could still be identified in the deseasonalized zonal mean zonal wind timeseries. In contrast, all the models projected a decrease in the QBO amplitude in a warmer climate with the largest relative decrease near 60 hPa. In simulations with doubled and quadrupled CO2, the multi‐model mean QBO amplitudes decreased by 36 and 51%, respectively. Across the models the differences in the QBO period response were most strongly related to how the gravity wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity responded to the increases in CO2 amounts. Likewise it was found that the robust decrease in QBO amplitudes was correlated across the models to changes in vertical residual velocity, parametrized gravity wave momentum fluxes, and to some degree the resolved upward wave flux. We argue that uncertainty in the representation of the parameterized gravity waves is the most likely cause of the spread among the eleven models in the QBO's response to climate change.

Long term variabilities and tendencies of mesospheric lunar semidiurnal tide over Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E)

The medium frequency radar deployed at Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E), which is located near the southmost tip of peninsular India, have been providing continuous data from the year 1993 to the year 2012 that helped to study the long term tendencies in the lunar tidal variabilities over this geographic location. In the present paper we present the results of seasonal, interannual and long-term variabilities of lunar semi-diurnal tides in the upper mesosphere over Tirunelveli. The present study also includes comparison with model values. The study shows that the tidal amplitudes are larger in the meridional components of the mesospheric winds than the zonal winds. The seasonal variations of the tides are similar in both the components. The tides show maximum amplitudes of about ∼5 m/s in February/March, secondary maximum amplitudes of about ∼3 m/s in September and minimum amplitudes during summer months (May–August). The observed seasonal variation of the lunar tides do not compare well with Vial and Forbes (1994) model values, though it is consistent with earlier observations. The lunar tidal phase in meridional winds leads that in zonal winds from January to June and from September to November, while the latter leads the former during July/August. The lunar tides show large interannual variability. There are unusual amplitude enhancements in the lunar tide in meridional winds during the winters of 2006 and 2009, when major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) occurred at high latitude northern hemisphere, whereas zonal lunar tide does not show any clear association with the SSW. Vertical wavelengths of lunar tides in zonal and meridional wind are in the range of 20–90 km. The vertical wavelengths of lunar tides in both zonal and meridional component are smaller in June and larger in November and December. The monthly mean zonal and meridional winds are subjected to regression analysis to study the tidal response to long-period oscillations, namely, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar cycle variation and El-nino southern oscillation (ENSO). It is found the lunar tide in both zonal and meridional winds show significant QBO response, whereas zonal tide only shows significant negative response to solar cycle and positive response to ENSO. Besides, zonal tide only shows significant long-term increasing trend.

Global tropospheric ozone variations from 2003 to 2011 as seen by SCIAMACHY

Abstract. An analysis of the tropospheric ozone (O3) columns (TOCs) derived from SCIAMACHY limb-nadir-matching (LNM) observations during the period 2003–2011, focusing on global variations in TOC, is described. The changes are derived using a multivariate linear regression model. TOC shows changes of −0.2 ± 0.4, 0.3 ± 0.4, 0.1 ± 0.5 and 0.1 ± 0.2 % yr−1, which are not statistically significant at the 2σ level in the latitude bands 30–50° N, 20° S–0, 0–20° N and 50–30° S, respectively. Tropospheric O3 shows statistically significant increases over some regions of South Asia (1–3 % yr−1), the South American continent (up to 2 % yr−1), Alaska (up to 2 % yr−1) and around Congo in Africa (up to 2 % yr−1). Significant increase in TOC is determined off the continents including Australia (up to 2 % yr−1), Eurasia (1–3 % yr−1) and South America (up to 3 % yr−1). Significant decrease in TOC (up to −3 % yr−1) is observed over some regions of the continents of North America, Europe and South America. Over the oceanic regions including the Pacific, North Atlantic and Indian oceans, significant decreases in TOC (−1 to −3 % yr−1) were observed. In addition, the response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to changes in TOC for the period 2003–2011 was investigated. The result shows extensive regions, mostly in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere extratropics, of significant ENSO responses to changes in TOC and a significant QBO response to TOC changes over some regions.

Long‐term tendencies in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere mean winds and tides as observed by medium‐frequency radar at Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E)

The present study examines changes in monthly mean winds and tides observed by MF radar at Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E) for the years 1993–2007 with respect to long‐term variabilities, namely, the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the solar cycle (SC), and the long‐term trends, using regression analysis. Both zonal and meridional winds show negative QBO response in the altitude region 84–94 km and negative ENSO response (∼1 m s−1 per Southern Oscillation Index) above 90 km. However, only the latter show a notable positive SC response. The response of meridional diurnal tide is positive to ENSO (above 90 km) and stratospheric QBO and is negative to SC. The tides in both wind components show positive trends. The meridional winds show a significant negative trend (0.3 m s−1 yr−1). Further, monthly variations of the responses of mean winds and tides to QBO, ENSO, and SC are presented and discussed.

QBO effects on Antarctic mesospheric winds and polar vortex dynamics

A dynamical link is demonstrated between the equatorial quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and high‐latitude mesospheric zonal winds recorded by an Imaging Doppler Interferometer (IDI) at Halley, Antarctica. Above ∼80 km eastward winds in winter (an extension of the polar vortex into the mesosphere) are strengthened under easterly 50 hPa QBO conditions. This is similar to the Holton‐Tan effect in the stratosphere but working in opposition. The weak winter time zonal winds are shown to differ by up to 2.6 m/s dependent on QBO phase. In spring, zonal winds are most strongly correlated with the equatorial 25 hPa QBO and are significantly more westerly in November, an extension of the QBO response in the stratosphere below. It is suggested that QBO modulation of the vortex winds in the Antarctic mesosphere is dependent on planetary‐wave activity from the Antarctic in winter and Arctic in spring.

Characterization of the 11-Year Solar Signal Using a Multiple Regression Analysis of the ERA-40 Dataset

Abstract A multiple linear regression analysis of the ERA-40 dataset for the period 1979–2001 has been used to study the influence of the 11-yr solar cycle on atmospheric temperature and zonal winds. Volcanic, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), ENSO, and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signatures are also presented. The solar signal is shown to be readily distinguishable from the volcanic signal. The main solar signal is a statistically significant positive response (i.e., warmer in solar maximum) of 1.75 K over the equator with peak values at 43 km and a reversed signal of similar magnitude at high latitudes that is seasonally dependent. Consistent with this is a statistically significant zonal wind response of up to 6 m s−1 in the subtropical upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere that is also seasonally dependent. The wind anomalies are westerly/easterly in solar maximum/minimum. In addition, there is a statistically significant temperature response in the subtropical lower stratosphere that shows similarity in spatial structure to the QBO response, suggesting a possible interaction between the solar and QBO signals in this region. The solar response in tropospheric zonal winds is small but significant, confirming previous studies that indicate a possible modulation of the Hadley circulation.