Quantitative Temperature Reconstructions Research Articles

Carbon and oxygen isotopes in mummified wood reveal warmer and wetter winters in the Siberian Arctic 3000 years ago

Paleoclimate reconstructions from the Holocene are important for defining baseline conditions in order to interpret and contextualize the effects of modern climate change. Such records are particularly lacking for Siberia, a region that represents ~ 50% of the Arctic. In addition, the majority of proxy-based paleoclimate reconstructions for the Holocene represent mean annual conditions, and few quantify winter temperature, which is particularly important for predicting the effects of global warming in Arctic environments. Here we provide the first quantitative proxy reconstruction of precipitation and temperature for both summer and winter for 3000 years ago via novel high-resolution intra-annual carbon and oxygen isotope measurements across annual growth rings of fossil wood mummified within the permafrost of far northeastern Siberia. We found that the site experienced greater precipitation year-round (~ 10% increase in summer and ~ 30% increase in winter), cooler summer temperatures, and warmer winter temperatures, compared with today. Our findings indicate that warmer winter temperatures (+ 3.0 °C above early twentieth century values) in the Arctic 3000 years ago drove higher mean annual temperature by up to 1 °C, despite the existence of cooler summers, a similar phenomenon to what is observed within today’s Arctic environments, and past intervals of extreme global warmth.

Late Holocene climate dynamics in the Azores archipelago

The location of the Azores Archipelago makes this group of islands an excellent setting for investigating past long-term temperature and precipitation changes in the central North Atlantic region. Here, we present a chironomid-based quantitative temperature reconstruction and a record of oxygen isotope composition of chironomid head capsules for the last ca. 1200 years, based on the Lake Prata core (São Miguel Island, Azores). Chironomids from Lake Prata show that the temperature trend is aligned with the prevailing past global temperature trends, indicating warming during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 950–1300 CE) and subsequent cooling during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1300–1800 CE). Furthermore, changes in lake water oxygen isotope composition from chironomid head capsules were recorded with more positive δ18O values (18.2 ± 0.2‰) during the MCA and more negative values (varying between 14.8‰ and 17.6‰) during the LIA, indicating a positive shift in the precipitation-evaporation balance and/or heavier precipitation in winter relative to summer. Our study revealed that, in subtropical regions with a temperate oceanic climate and low thermal variation, there is a limited correlation between the isotopic composition of precipitation and temperature. Additionally, the temporal sequence of oxygen isotope values obtained from chironomid head capsules closely corresponds to variations in precipitation seasonality inferred from distinct climatic proxies. This consistency underscores the robustness of quantitative reconstructions and indicates that δ18Ochironomid records are promising for future investigations, especially in the context of lakes located on oceanic islands characterised by limited thermal variability.

Two chironomid-inferred mean July air temperature reconstructions in the South Carpathian Mountains over the last 2000 years

We present chironomid-based reconstructions of mean July air temperature changes over the last 2000 years from Lake Latoriței (1530 m a.s.l.) in the Southern Carpathians. A multi-proxy analysis was performed along a 58 cm long sediment core and two training sets were used for quantitative July air temperature reconstructions: the Eastern-European (EE, 212 lakes) and the Finnish-Polish-Carpathian (FPC, 273 lakes). The transfer functions had a coefficient of determination ( r2) 0.88 and 0.91 with a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) 0.88°C and 1.02°C. Despite possible biases resulting from methodological problems and the ecological complexity of the chironomid response to both climatic and environmental changes, the agreement of the temperature reconstruction of Lake Latoriței with other alpine records suggests that the transfer function successfully reconstructed past summer temperatures between 750 and 1830 CE. Biases in the temperature reconstruction in the period before 750 and after 1830 CE were likely caused by increased abundance of rheophilic and semi-terrestrial chironomid species related to increased inflow activity before 750 CE and local land use changes after 1830 CE, which was also indicated by increasing deforestation and increasing lake productivity in the pollen and diatom records. Our results suggest that the region experienced a warm period between 750 and 1360 CE, and a cold period between 1360 and 1600 CE followed by fluctuating summer temperatures until 1830 CE. These events were associated with the so-called ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’ (MWP) and the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA), respectively. The inference models reconstructed a decrease in July air temperatures by 0.7°C–1.1°C during the LIA relative to the warmer MWP. We also demonstrated that the FPC training set gives better results, supporting that local/continental training sets are efficient to detect weak amplitude summer temperature changes in the Late-Holocene.

Summer warming during Heinrich Stadial 1 in Northeast China

Abstract The last deglaciation is considered a key period for exploring the underlying dynamics of temperature changes because it was characterized by multiple millennial-scale abrupt climatic events. However, the limited number of quantitative temperature records in Northeast (NE) China covering the last deglaciation hampers a complete understanding of the mechanisms and processes behind the temperature changes that occurred in that region. Here, we present a quantitative reconstruction of summer temperature over the last deglaciation based on bacterial branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) analyzed from the sediment sequence of Lake Kielguo, a small volcanic lake in NE China. The results show that summer temperature was lowest during the interval ca. 20–18.2 calibrated (cal.) k.y. B.P. with a value of ~11.1 °C and increased by ~1.9 °C during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) and by ~2.7 °C during the transition to the Bølling-Allerød (B-A). The summer temperatures during the B-A warm interval and Younger Dryas cold interval were ~14.1 °C and ~12.0 °C, respectively. The summer temperature record from the Lake Kielguo sediment sequence indicates that summer warming dominated the climate change state during HS1 in East Asia, which is different from the cooling pattern controlled by winter temperatures in the North Atlantic and Greenland realms. This distinction can be explained by weakened winter cooling signals triggered by the collapse of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation when these signals propagated to East Asia, and increased summer temperature warming controlled by orbital and greenhouse gases during HS1 in East Asia.

The Ostracod Clumped‐Isotope Thermometer: A Novel Tool to Accurately Quantify Continental Climate Changes

AbstractThis study presents a methodological advancement in the field of clumped‐isotope (∆47) thermometry, specifically tailored for application to freshwater ostracods. The novel ostracod clumped isotope approach enables quantitative temperature and hydrological reconstruction in lacustrine records. The relationship between ∆47 and the temperature at which ostracod shell mineralized is determined by measuring ∆47 on different species grown under controlled temperatures, ranging from 4 ± 0.8 to 23 ± 0.5ºC. The excellent agreement between the presented ∆47 ostracod data and the monitored temperatures confirms that ∆47 can be applied to ostracod shells and that a vital effect is absent outside the uncertainty of measurements. Results are consistent with the carbonate clumped‐isotope unified calibration (Anderson et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl092069), therefore, an ostracod‐specific calibration is not needed. The ostracod clumped‐isotope thermometer represents a powerful tool for terrestrial paleoclimate studies all around the world, as lakes and ostracods are found in all climatic belts.

BrGDGT-based seasonal paleotemperature reconstruction for the last 15 000 years from a shallow lake on the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. Understanding Holocene temperature changes is vital for resolving discrepancies between proxy reconstructions and climate models. The intricate temperature variations across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) add complexity to studying continental climate change during this period. Discrepancies between model-based and proxy-based reconstructions might stem from seasonal biases and environmental uncertainties in the proxies. Employing multiple proxies from a single sediment core for quantitative temperature reconstructions offers an effective method for cross-validation in terrestrial environments. Here, we present an ice-free-season temperature record for the past 15 kyr from a shallow, freshwater lake on the eastern TP, based on brGDGTs (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers). This record shows that the Holocene Thermal Maximum lags the pollen-based July temperature recorded in the same sediment core. We conclude that the mismatch between the brGDGT-based and pollen-based temperatures is primarily the result of seasonal variations in solar irradiance. The overall pattern of temperature changes is supported by other summer temperature records, and the Younger Dryas cold event and the Bølling–Allerød warm period are also detected. A generally warm period occurred during 8–3.5 ka, followed by a cooling trend in the late Holocene. Our findings have implications for understanding the seasonal signal of brGDGTs in shallow lakes and provide critical data for confirming the occurrence of seasonal biases in different proxies from high-elevation lakes. To further investigate the significance of the brGDGTs and temperature patterns on the TP, we examined existing brGDGT-based Holocene temperature records, which interpret these compounds as indicators of mean annual or growing season temperatures. The existing and available temperature records show complicated patterns of variation, some with general warming trends throughout the Holocene, some with cooling trends, and some with a warm middle Holocene. We analyzed the possible reasons for the diverse brGDGTs records on the TP and emphasize the importance of considering lake conditions and modern investigations of brGDGTs in lacustrine systems when using brGDGTs to reconstruct paleoenvironmental conditions.

First Pediastrum–temperature transfer function and its application to mid-to-late Holocene reconstruction in Central Asia

The green alga Pediastrum is an ecologically significant component of freshwater ecosystems, but its potential as an independent proxy for quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstruction is relatively unexplored. Here we use multivariate statistical analysis to explore the relationship between the Pediastrum composition of lake surface sediments and environmental variables. The findings highlight the mean growing season air temperature between March and October (TMar-Oct) as the most important factor determining the Pediastrum composition. We then establish the first transfer function between the Pediastrum taxa and TMar-Oct, which enables us to provide a quantitative temperature reconstruction for the past ∼8.2 kyr based on sedimentary subfossil Pediastrum records from Bosten Lake in Xinjiang, China. Our findings reveal an exceptionally warm climate during ∼4.8–3.6 kyr, with temperatures ∼4 °C higher compared to those during ∼8.2–4.8 kyr. This unusually warm climate is verified by the carbonate clumped isotopes record of the same core and other paleoclimate records. These findings contribute to our understanding of past temperature changes in Central Asia and provide a basis for future research on long-term lake ecosystem dynamics under past climatic warming.

Quantitative 2D reconstruction of temperature and OH concentration in axisymmetric flames based on ultraviolet broadband absorption tomography

Absorption tomography plays a crucial role in quantitatively imaging temperature and absolute concentration in combustion. However, there is scarce research on the tomography of OH radicals, which are significant for combustion diagnostics. This study presented a new tomography method to image OH radicals, termed ultraviolet broadband absorption tomography (UV-BAT). Three strategies were proposed to solve the nonlinear problem in UV-BAT tomography, namely all-spectra fitting, weak-absorption approximation, and multi-temperature approximation. The proposed UV-BAT method was applied for OH imaging in methane/air axisymmetric laminar Bunsen flames with different equivalence ratios (ϕ = 0.9, 1.0, and 1.1). The reconstructed OH distributions showed distinctive structures of Bunsen flames including premixed and diffusion flame areas. The accuracy of the UV-BAT method was validated by comparing tomography results with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations using the USC-Mech II mechanism, demonstrating good agreement in two-dimensional (2D) temperature and OH concentration distributions. This novel method offers new opportunities for tomographic reconstruction of free radicals such as OH and temperature in small-scale flames.Novelty and significanceThis study demonstrated a novel tomography imaging method using ultraviolet broadband absorption spectroscopy to reconstruct temperature and radical concentration in combustion. This method possesses high sensitivity to free radicals and employs compact and inexpensive equipment, making it one of the most viable methods for realizing free radical absorption tomography. The 2D imaging of OH radicals using this method based on axisymmetric absorption tomography was accomplished for the first time. In conclusion, this study enriched the diagnostic methods of flame radicals based on absorption spectroscopy and provided new ideas for small-scale temperature tomography.

Holocene summer temperature record based on branched tetraethers in Northeast China

The temperature evolution during the Holocene shows conflicting patterns and yields the controversy regarding whether the Holocene followed a warming or cooling trend. Resolving this controversy is critical for understanding the underlying mechanisms of climate change and evaluating global warming on a longer timescale. Here we present a quantitative summer temperature reconstruction based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers analyzed from a sedimentary sequence retrieved from the volcanic lake Kielguo crater lake in Northeast (NE) China. Our record revealed that the summer temperature in NE China followed a rough cooling trend during ~10–2.2 cal ka BP and increased after ~2.2 cal ka BP. The warmest period appeared at ~10–8.8 cal ka BP with ~15.8°C, and the coldest time occurred at ~2.3 cal ka BP with ~13.4°C. Compared with other temperature records from NE China, we conclude that the summer and winter temperature change trends in NE China were probably controlled by the summer and winter insolation respectively, and the ice volume. The mean annual temperature changes in NE China resulted from the superposition of summer cooling and winter warming during the Holocene, and the decrease in ice volume forcing the increase in mean annual temperatures before ~7–6 cal ka BP. The switch in mean annual temperature changes was probably linked with the collapse of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

Paleoenvironmental changes on the central Tibetan Plateau over the last two millennia inferred from sedimentological proxies and brGDGTs in Bamu Co

Understanding multi-centennial climate variations and their impact on lake catchment productivity over the last 2000 years (the Common Era), is crucial for assessing the role of natural climatic factors in driving productivity changes, and for predicting productivity changes under recent global warming scenarios. However, the climate patterns on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), including temperature and hydrological variations, during the Common Era, and their possible links with productivity, are poorly understood. We present a quantitative reconstruction of mean annual air temperature (MAAT), together with grain size and other sedimentary records, from a non-glacial lake sediment archive on the central TP, with the objective of tracking changes in climate and lake catchment productivity over the past two millennia. Our results reveal an overall cooling trend in temperature reconstructed from branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs), with multi-centennial-scale fluctuations superimposed. These fluctuations include relatively warm periods during 200 BCE–400 CE and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1050–1400 CE), and cold periods centered on ∼500–1000 CE and the Little Ice Age (∼1500–1900 CE). A rapid warming trend since 1900 CE corresponds to the Current Warm Period. The variations in sedimentary grain size reflect lake level changes associated with changes in the summer monsoon. Paleoproductivity inferred from total organic carbon (TOC) shows a similar pattern to the paleoclimate records, suggesting that millennial-scale productivity was influenced by both temperature and the catchment hydrology. In recent decades, human activities exerted a more substantial influence on lake productivity. Additionally, we suggest that the use of brGDGTs for temperature reconstruction necessitates the investigation of the temperature relationship of various fractions of brGDGTs, specifically tetramethyl-brGDGTs; and that careful selection of the temperature calibration equation is needed to minimize inaccuracies in paleotemperature reconstruction.

Coeval primary and diagenetic carbonates in lacustrine sediments challenge palaeoclimate interpretations

Lakes are sensitive to climate change and their sediments play a pivotal role as environmental recorders. The oxygen and carbon isotope composition (δ18O and δ13C) of carbonates from alkaline lakes is featured in numerous studies attempting a quantitative reconstruction of rainfall, temperature and precipitation-evaporation changes. An often-overlooked challenge consists in the mineralogically mixed nature of carbonates themselves. We document a large variability of carbonate components and their respective distinct δ18O and δ13C values from sediments of Lake Van (Turkey) covering the last 150 kyr. The carbonate inventory consists of primary (1) inorganic calcite and aragonite precipitating in the surface-water, (2) biogenic calcite ostracod valves; and post-depositional phases: (3) dolomite forming in the sediment, and previously overlooked, (4) aragonite encrustations formed rapidly around decaying organic matter. We find a systematic relation between the lithology and the dominant deep-water carbonate phase formed recurrently under specific hydrological conditions. The presence of the different carbonates is never mutually exclusive, and the isotopic composition of each phase forms a distinctive cluster characteristic for the depth and timing of their formation. Our findings stretch the envelope of mechanisms forming lacustrine carbonates and highlight the urge to identify and separate carbonate components prior to geochemical analyses.

Elevational differences in Holocene thermal maximum revealed by quantitative temperature reconstructions at ~30° N on eastern Tibetan Plateau

Meteorological data indicate that the increase in temperature at high-elevation sites with the background of global warming is much higher than the global average. However, there are few studies trying to evaluate temperature changes in high elevational areas over longer time scales. Here, we use brGDGTs in a sediment core collected from Hongyuan Peatland (3503 m a.s.l.), to reconstruct an independently-dated, high-resolution (~100 years), quantitative record of mean annual temperature (MAT) over the past 13,300 yr BP on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Our data, consisting with other quantitative local reconstructions, show a peak warmth in the middle Holocene (6100–5600 yr BP). Together with other published MAT records from ~30° N in China, we find that the timing of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) in high-elevation sites lagged that in low-elevation sites. We also find that the warming rate in early Holocene was faster at a higher elevation site, by comparing with another MAT reconstruction using the same archive and the same proxy. We hypothesize the delayed HTM at high-elevation areas was probably caused by the offset of remaining regional glaciers and/or snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau. The enhanced warming with elevation can be ascribed to snow albedo and latent heat release. Our new results may imply a faster high-elevation temperature rise with an on-going global warming, considering the disappearing regional glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau.

The Lateglacial and early Holocene climate variability and vegetation dynamics derived from chironomid and pollen records of Lieporiai palaeolake, North Lithuania

To investigate the Lateglacial and early Holocene climatic and environmental dynamics in the Eastern Baltic we analysed chironomid and pollen data from Lieporiai palaeolake, North Lithuania. The first quantitative mean July air temperature reconstruction from Lithuania based on fossil chironomid assemblages was performed using expanded Fennoscandian calibration model. Our study suggests that sedimentation started at about 14 600 cal yrs BP and lasted until the early Holocene. The mean July air temperature for Lateglacial and early Holocene from studied site ranged between 13 °C−16 °C which was ~ 2–4 °C lower than the present. Rapidly after the deglaciation during Bølling (GI-1e) interstadial reconstructed July air temperature reached ~ 15 °C. The marked temperature decrease to 13.2 °C was recorded during the Older Dryas (GS-1d). Temperature reached its highest values (up to 16 °C) during the Allerød (GI-1a). The Younger Dryas (GS-1) was relatively cold with the mean July air temperature ~ 14 °C and this was 3.9 °C colder than the present. The pattern of the Lateglacial temperature changes from Lieporiai Lake shows both similarities and some differences from the other chironomid based regional and European reconstructions. Chironomid inferred palaeoenvironmental changes are in positive correlation with changes in the development of vegetation.

Reconstruction of temperature and precipitation spanning the past 28 kyr based on branched tetraether lipids from Qionghai Lake, southwestern China

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) significantly influences the climate of southwestern China; however, continuous quantitative temperature reconstructions since the Last Glacial Maximum are rare, which limits our understanding of ISM evolution. In this study, we analyzed the branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) from a lacustrine sediment core from Qionghai Lake to reconstruct the paleoclimatology of southwestern subtropical China over the past 27.7 kyr. Our results suggest that the brGDGTs in Qionghai Lake sediments were probably sourced from catchment soils, with some contributions from in situ lacustrine production. We found that the temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene Climatic Optimum was ~3 °C cooler and ~ 2.5 °C warmer than present-day conditions, respectively, based on brGDGTs-reconstructed mean annual air temperatures (MATs). Generally, temperature and precipitation showed synchronous paleovariability in ISM regions. Moreover, Northern Hemisphere summer insolation was the dominant control on climate variability in ISM regions on the precessional scale, while Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation activity, Intertropical Convergence Zone positioning, and glacial boundary conditions (ice sheet extent and sea surface temperature) contributed to climate shifts on millennial timescales.

Soil pH Dominates the Distributions of Both 5‐ and 6‐Methyl Branched Tetraethers in Arid Regions

AbstractBranched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT)‐based indices are increasingly used for quantitative mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and soil pH reconstructions. However, large scatter in the relationship between the methylation index of 5‐methyl brGDGTs (MBT′5ME) and MAAT still exists in arid and/or cold regions, and specific reasons for that offset remain unclear. Here, we present the brGDGT distributions from 18 soil samples along an altitudinal transect spanning a large gradient in MAAT at Mount (Mt.) Tienshan in arid central Asia, which we compare with previously published data from 256 globally distributed soils. Our results indicate that a dramatic increase of brGDGT concentrations occurs at 2,500 m above sea level for the soils from Mt. Tienshan, and a different pattern of brGDGT distributions in response to environmental changes appears below and above this elevation. Soil pH is observed to control the distributions of both 5‐ and 6‐methyl brGDGTs in the soils from Mt. Tienshan and other arid regions. Importantly, we find that the fractional abundances of the 5‐methyl isomers of pentamethylated and hexamethylated brGDGTs (IIa, IIIa) show a distinct negative correlation with soil pH, and the noncyclopentane‐containing tetra‐methylated brGDGT (Ia) is not related to MAAT in arid soils, which can explain the remaining temperature offset of reconstructed MAAT based on the MBT′5ME index in arid regions. In addition, our data suggest that either the brGDGT‐producing community differs or brGDGT‐producers respond differently to temperature in arid relative to moist soils.

Centennial-Scale Temperature Change During the Common Era Revealed by Quantitative Temperature Reconstructions on the Tibetan Plateau

Quantitative palaeotemperature reconstruction is crucial for understanding the evolution of Earth’s climate and reducing uncertainty in future climate predictions. Clarifying the temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the Common Era is critical because it plays a vital role in the prediction of cryosphere changes in such regions under a future warming climate. In this paper, we report a comprehensive synthesis of currently available quantitative temperature records to refine the temperature history of the TP during the Common Era. To date, Common Era quantitative temperature reconstructions are sparse and mainly concentrated in the northeastern TP. Considering seasonal bias of the available quantitative temperature reconstructions, three different composite temperature records for TP were derived, namely the “Standardization” composite, the “Mean annual air temperature anomaly” composite, and the the “Mean summer temperature anomaly” composite individually. All the integrated temperature series reveal the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, but the start and end timings of these multi-centennial-scale periods and their temperature amplitudes differ. There is strong seasonality in temperature variations on this high plateau, and the 20th century warming was characterized by rapid winter temperature increases, while summer temperatures displayed weak variations. Spatial analysis suggests a relatively consistent signal marking a warm Tibetan Plateau during 600-1400 CE and a cold plateau during 1400-1900 CE. Large-scale trends in temperature history for the TP resemble those for China and the Northern Hemisphere. Many factors, such as seasonality of temperature proxies, might lead to uncertainty in the reconstructed series. The results highlight that it is of crucial importance to develop more seasonal temperature reconstructions to improve the reliability of quantitative palaeoclimatic reconstructions based on geological records across the TP.

Holocene temperature and landscape history of southwest Greenland inferred from isotope and geochemical lake sediment proxies

Terrestrial temperature reconstructions from the ice-free margins of Greenland are critical for constraining the sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to past climate change. Numerous investigations have clarified the glacial history of southwest Greenland in recent decades; however, very few local quantitative temperature reconstructions exist as context for changes in the cryosphere. We examine sedimentary records from two lakes south of Nuuk, Greenland (informally named lakes T1 and T2), and investigate millennial scale Holocene climate change using a multi-proxy approach. Changes in X-Ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRF), δ15N, δ13C and biogenic silica concentrations of bulk lake sediments mark the transition from a marine environment to isolated lakes as relative sea level fell in the early Holocene. δ18O values of subfossil insects (chironomids) from lakes T1 and T2 decreased by 2–3‰ from c. 8.8 ka BP (minimum limiting age for the onset of lacustrine sediment deposition in lake T2; ka BP = thousands of years before 1950) to 1 ka BP. Existing isotope-independent temperature reconstructions from the west coast of Greenland suggest that these changes in δ18O values accompanied gradual cooling of 2–4 °C, concomitant with decreasing summer insolation. There is widespread regional evidence that this cooling resulted in progressive regrowth of local glaciers and of the ice sheet. The regional consensus on the magnitude of this temperature change indicates that the local, modern modeled temperature - precipitation δ18O relationship cannot be used to quantify millennial-scale temperature changes at these sites through the Holocene. This reinforces that studies utilizing δ18O-based proxies to infer temperature change should carefully assess local isotope-temperature relationships over space and time.

Pollen-based Holocene quantitative temperature reconstruction on the eastern Tibetan Plateau using a comprehensive method framework

Quantitative climate reconstruction on long timescales can provide important insights for understanding the climate variability and providing valuable data for simulations. Unfortunately, the credibility of some attempts was hampered by incomplete reconstruction procedures. We here establish a comprehensive framework resting on high-quality Chinese modern pollen database, including modern pollen data screening, calibration set selection, major climate factor analysis, appropriate model selection, strict statistical assessment of results and ecological interpretation. The application of this framework to three high-resolution pollen records from the eastern Tibetan Plateau allows accurate quantitative inferences of Holocene temperature changes, which is the major control of regional vegetation. The results show that the mean warmest month temperature (MTwa) during the early Holocene was ca. 10.4°C and reached the highest value at 8.5–6 ka BP (ca. 11°C). The early and mid-Holocene (11–5 ka BP) warmth was followed by 1.2°C temperature decrease, culminating in the coolest temperatures of the Holocene during the Neoglacial cooling. Superimposing on the general cooling trend, MTwa reveals a significant 500-yr periodicity with varying intensities through time, showing that warm (cold) intervals are in phase with solar maxima (minima) periods. This spectral similarity indicates a possible connection of multi-century scale climate fluctuations with solar forcing.

A quantitative temperature reconstruction of the ‘Little Ice Age’ in southern China

We present a branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs)–based mean annual temperature reconstruction covering the last millennium from a subtropical lake in Guangxi Province, southern China (23°N). We demonstrate that the pattern and absolute values of mean annual temperatures reconstructed using the eastern African lake brGDGTs calibration based on the methylation of 5-methyl branched tetraethers index provided the most reliable and accurate temperature estimates from the site. The results resemble regional and Northern Hemisphere changes over this period. The pattern shows a general cool period between ca. AD 1450 and 1950, including cooling minima centred at ca. AD 1600, 1750 and 1900, coeval with the ‘Little Ice Age’ temperature fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere, followed by a warming trend from the mid-20th century to the present. The results suggest that both solar forcing and high-latitude Northern Hemisphere climate fluctuations play a role in influencing the terrestrial temperatures in southern China, possibly on different timescales. In addition, our results support the hypothesis that changes of the East Asian summer monsoon are primarily driven by the land–sea thermal gradient change between terrestrial southern China and the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool regions during the last millennium, owing to external radiative and/or volcanic forcings.

Peat brGDGTs-based Holocene temperature history of the Altai Mountains in arid Central Asia

Due to their effects on snow/ice melting in mountains and evaporation in basins, temperature variations are an important influence on the hydrological cycle and water resources in arid Central Asia (ACA). We present independently-dated peat brGDGTs-based MBT′/MBT′5ME records from an alpine Sahara sand peatland (SSP) in the southern Altai Mountains, in ACA. During the past ~11 kyr, the SSP MBT′ and MBT′5ME profiles exhibit consistently increasing trends and they are significantly positively correlated. Using a global peat-specific MBT′5ME-tempeature calibration, the long-term Holocene warming trend indicated by the quantitative SSP mean annual temperature (MATpeat) reconstruction is supported by the peat α-cellulose δ13C summer temperature record from the SSP, and by an independent peat α-cellulose δ18O winter temperature record from a nearby site (i.e. temporal validation). The increasing trends are also evident in Holocene peat MBT′ records from the Hongyuan (HY) peatland in the NE Tibetan Plateau, and in the Shuizhuyang (SZY) peatland in SE China. Notably, both the MBT′ data of the surface samples and the averaged MBT′ data of the Holocene peat cores are consistent with the modern spatial temperature gradient at the SSP, HY and SZY (i.e. spatial validation). This evidence demonstrates the temperature significance of peat MBT′/MBT′5ME records. The long-term Holocene warming trend indicated by the SSP MBT′/MBT′5ME records is supported by recently-acquired Holocene temperature records from the Eurasian continent. This trend is the opposite to the traditional viewpoint of a long-term Holocene cooling trend, and it indicates that more effort is needed to obtain a reliable Holocene temperature history.