Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model Research Articles

From Cold to Hot: Changing Perceptions and Future Opportunities for Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Modeling in Cancer Immunotherapy.

Immuno-oncology (IO) is a fast-expanding field due to recent success using IO therapies in treating cancer. As IO therapies do not directly kill tumor cells but rather act upon the patients' own immune cells either systemically or in the tumor microenvironment, new and innovative approaches are required to inform IO therapy research and development. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) modeling describes the biological mechanisms of disease and the mode of action of drugs with mathematical equations, which has significant potential to address the big challenges in the IO field, from identifying patient populations that respond to different therapies to guiding the selection, dosing, and scheduling of combination therapy. To assess the perspectives of the community on the impact of QSP modeling in IO drug development and to understand current applications and challenges, the IO QSP working group-under the QSP Special Interest Group (SIG) of the International Society of Pharmacometrics (ISoP)-conducted a survey among QSP modelers, non-QSP modelers, and non-modeling IO program stakeholders. The survey results are presented here with discussions on how to address some of the findings. One of the findings is the differences in perception among these groups. To help bridge this perception gap, we present several case studies demonstrating the impact of QSP modeling in IO and suggest actions that can be taken in the future to increase the real and perceived impact of QSP modeling in IO drug research and development.

Algorithms and methodological challenges in the development and application of quantitative systems pharmacology models: a case study in type 2 diabetes

Abstract Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is a relatively new modelling discipline, formed within the ever-growing domain of model-informed drug development and actively evolving throughout the last decade. This modelling technique is based on the systems analysis and is used to get a quantitative rather than qualitative understanding of systems dynamics and explore the mechanisms of action of a drug. However, there is no well-defined methodology for the QSP model development, which significantly complicates the practical application of these models. In the current work, we overview the existing mathematical models of antidiabetic therapies and propose a modelling method, which overcomes common limitations and is able to produce a physiologically based mechanistic model describing gliflozin action in type 2 diabetes mellitus. From the practical standpoint, sensitivity analysis preformed in this work helped to reveal subpopulation of patients with better response to gliflozin therapy.

Conceptual and organizationalbarriers to quantitative systems pharmacology modeling of pathophysiological systemic drug hypotheses.

Conceptual and organizationalbarriers to quantitative systems pharmacology modeling of pathophysiological systemic drug hypotheses.

Quantitative systems pharmacology model of the amyloid pathway in Alzheimer's disease: Insights into the therapeutic mechanisms of clinical candidates.

Despite considerable investment into potential therapeutic approaches for Alzheimer's disease (AD), currently approved treatment options are limited. Predictive modeling using quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) can be used to guide the design of clinical trials in AD. This study developed a QSP model representing amyloid beta (Aβ) pathophysiology in AD. The model included mechanisms of Aβ monomer production and aggregation to form insoluble fibrils and plaques; the transport of soluble species between the compartments of brain, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and plasma; and the pharmacokinetics, transport, and binding of monoclonal antibodies to targets in the three compartments. Ordinary differential equations were used to describe these processes quantitatively. The model components were calibrated to data from the literature and internal studies, including quantitative data supporting the underlying AD biology and clinical data from clinical trials for anti-Aβ monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) aducanumab, crenezumab, gantenerumab, and solanezumab. The model was developed for an apolipoprotein E (APOE) ɛ4 allele carrier and tested for an APOE ɛ4 noncarrier. Results indicate that the model is consistent with data on clinical Aβ accumulation in untreated individuals and those treated with monoclonal antibodies, capturing increases in Aβ load accurately. This model may be used to investigate additional AD mechanisms and their impact on biomarkers, as well as predict Aβ load at different dose levels for mAbs with known targets and binding affinities. This model may facilitate the design of scientifically enriched and efficient clinical trials by enabling a priori prediction of biomarker dynamics in the brain and CSF.

MODELING AND SIMULATION PREDICTS ROBUST HAE ATTACK SUPPRESSION WITH EVERY 3 MONTH DOSING OF STAR-0215

<h3>Introduction</h3> Inhibition of plasma kallikrein is a validated mechanism for prevention of hereditary angioedema (HAE) attacks. STAR-0215 is a long-acting monoclonal antibody inhibitor of plasma kallikrein. We sought to generate a mechanistic quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model to explore the potential for reduction of HAE attacks with different dosing regimens of STAR-0215. <h3>Methods</h3> A simplified QSP model was established based on published reaction parameters for the plasma kallikrein-kininogen pathway in the vascular space and adjacent to the endothelial surface. The pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters of STAR-0215 were derived from cynomolgus monkey PK studies and scaled to estimate human PK parameters. Variability in PK parameters was simulated using a standard deviation of 50% and a Poisson distribution was applied to randomly determine the timing of trigger events with an average attack frequency of 3 per month. <h3>Results</h3> A long circulating half-life of STAR-0215 in humans (108 days) was predicted from empirically obtained PK parameters in cynomolgus monkeys. The QSP model predicted long-term robust HAE attack suppression following a single subcutaneous administration of STAR-0215 at dose levels of ≥300 mg. The QSP model simulations also showed subcutaneously administered STAR-0215 could provide a potential prolonged HAE attack suppression with a once every 3 months maintenance dose regimen. <h3>Conclusions</h3> STAR-0215 is a novel, potent and selective long-acting monoclonal antibody plasma kallikrein inhibitor for the potential treatment of HAE. Results from the QSP model support STAR-0215 dosing once every 3 months or longer for robust suppression of HAE attacks.

Virtual clinical trials of anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 immunotherapy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma using a quantitative systems pharmacology model

BackgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common form of primary liver cancer and is the third-leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Most patients with HCC are diagnosed at an advanced...

Accelerating robust plausible virtual patient cohort generation by substituting ODE simulations with parameter space mapping.

The generation of plausible virtual patients (VPs) is an important step in most quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) workflows, which requires time-intensive solving of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). However, non-physiological profiles of outputs of interest (OoI) are frequently produced, and additional acceptance/rejection steps are needed for comparing and removing VPs with predicted values outside a pre-defined range. Here, a new approach is developed to accelerate the acceptance/rejection steps by leveraging patterns of parameter associations with OoI. In most models, some parameters are monotonic with respect to OoI, such that an increase in a parameter value always induces an increase or decrease in the OoI. This monotonic property can be used to replace some ODE-solving steps with appropriate monotonic parameter value comparisons to extrapolate the rejection or interpolate the acceptance of some VPs (after simulation) to others. Two algorithms were built that directly extract plausible VPs from a pre-defined initial cohort. These algorithms were first tested using a simple tumor growth inhibition model. Analyzing 200,000 VPs took 50s with a reference method and 3 to 41s (depending on the initial set-up) with the first algorithm. The method was then applied to an apoptosis QSP model, in which the clinical phenotypes (i.e., treatment sensitive or resistant) of 200,000 VPs were fully characterized for four different drug regimens in 12min as compared to over 80min with the reference approach. Extraction of each phenotype can also be performed individually in 34s to 8min, demonstrating the time benefit and flexibility of this approach.

A quantitative systems pharmacology model for simulating OFF-Time in augmentation trials for Parkinson's disease: application to preladenant.

The clinical impact of therapeutic interventions in Parkinson's disease is often measured as a reduction in OFF-time when the beneficial effects of the standard-of-care L-DOPA formulations wanes off. We investigated the pharmacodynamic interactions of augmentation therapy to standard-of-care using a quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model of the basal ganglia motor circuit, essentially a computer model of neuronal firing in the different subregions with anatomically informed connectivity, cell-specific expression of 17 different G-protein coupled receptors and corresponding coupling to voltage-gated ion channel effector proteins based on experimentally observed intracellular signaling. The calculated beta/gamma (b/g) power spectrum of the local field potentials in the subthalamic nucleus was previously calibrated on the clinically relevant Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). When combining this QSP model with PK modeling of different formulations of L-DOPA, we calculated the b/g fluctuations over a 16h awake period and used a weighted distance from a specific threshold to determine the cumulative liability of OFF-Time. Prediction of OFF-time with clinical observations of different L-DOPA formulations showed a significant correlation. Simulations show that augmentation with the adenosine A2A antagonist preladenant reduces OFF-time with 6min for carbidopa/levodopa 950mg 5-times daily to 37min for 100mg L-DOPA - 3 or 5 times daily. Exploring delays between preladenant and L-DOPA intake did not improve the outcome. Hypothetical A2A antagonists with an ideal PK and pharmacology profile can achieve OFF-Time reductions ranging from 9.5min with DuoDopa to 55min with low dose L-DOPA formulations. Combination of the QSP model with PK modeling can predict the anticipated OFF-Time reduction of novel A2A antagonists with standard of care. With the large number of GPCR in the model, this combination can support both the design of clinical trials with new therapeutic agents and the optimization of combination therapy in clinical practice.

CYTOCON: The manually curated database of human in vivo cell and molecule concentrations.

Cell and cYTOkine CONcentrations DataBase (CYTOCON DB) is a project undertaken by the InSysBio team and aimed at the development of a database that allows collecting, processing, and visualizing publicly available in vivo human data on baseline concentrations of cells, cytokines, chemokines, and other molecules. Besides manual curation, an important feature of CYTOCON is that most values found in papers are converted from a huge variety of original units (i.e., mg/ml and number of cells per mm2 of biopsy surface section) to unified units: "pM" for cytokine and "kcell/L" for cell concentration. These features of the database can help researchers facilitate the creation and calibration of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models. Possible applications can be: estimation of the average value or variability of the cell, cytokine or chemokine concentrations for patient groups with different characteristics, such as age, gender, disease severity, disease subtype, etc.; and analysis of correlations among the cell, cytokine, or chemokine concentrations in patients with different characteristics, such as severity of the disease.

42P Antitumor activity of zolbetuximab combined with chemotherapy and anti-mouse PD-1 antibody (anti-mPD-1) in a syngeneic mouse model and a virtual preclinical trial using a quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model

Zolbetuximab, a chimeric mouse/human IgG1 monoclonal antibody, binds to claudin 18.2 (CLDN18.2) and mediates cancer cell death via antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity and complement-dependent cytotoxicity. A phase II study of zolbetuximab plus chemotherapy with or without the anti-programmed cell death 1 (anti-PD-1) antibody nivolumab is ongoing. Here, the triple combination was evaluated in a syngeneic mouse model. In addition, a virtual preclinical trial was conducted using a QSP approach.

Hallmarks of neurodegenerative disease: A systems pharmacology perspective.

Age-related central neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease, are a rising public health concern and have been plagued by repeated drug development failures. The complex nature and poor mechanistic understanding of the etiology of neurodegenerative diseases has hindered the discovery and development of effective disease-modifying therapeutics. Quantitative systems pharmacology models of neurodegeneration diseases may be useful tools to enhance the understanding of pharmacological intervention strategies and to reduce drug attrition rates. Due to the similarities in pathophysiological mechanisms across neurodegenerative diseases, especially at the cellular and molecular levels, we envision the possibility of structural components that are conserved across models of neurodegenerative diseases. Conserved structural submodels can be viewed as building blocks that are pieced together alongside unique disease components to construct quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models of neurodegenerative diseases. Model parameterization would likely be different between the different types of neurodegenerative diseases as well as individual patients. Formulating our mechanistic understanding of neurodegenerative pathophysiology as a mathematical model could aid in the identification and prioritization of drug targets and combinatorial treatment strategies, evaluate the role of patient characteristics on disease progression and therapeutic response, and serve as a central repository of knowledge. Here, we provide a background on neurodegenerative diseases, highlight hallmarks of neurodegeneration, and summarize previous QSP models of neurodegenerative diseases.

Towards a comprehensive assessment of QSP models: what would it take?

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) has emerged as a powerful ensemble of approaches aiming at developing integrated mathematical and computational models elucidating the complex interactions between pharmacology, physiology, and disease. As the field grows and matures its applications expand beyond the boundaries of research and development and slowly enter the decision making and regulatory arenas. However, widespread acceptance and eventual adoption of a new modeling approach requires assessment criteria and quantifiable metrics that establish credibility and increase confidence in model predictions. QSP aims to provide an integrated understanding of pathology in the context of therapeutic interventions. Because of its ambitious nature and the fact that QSP emerged in an uncoordinated manner as a result of activities distributed across organizations and academic institutions, high entropy characterizes the tools, methods, and computational methodologies and approaches used. The eventual acceptance of QSP model predictions as supporting material for an application to a regulatory agency will require that two key aspects are considered: (1) increase confidence in the QSP framework, which drives standardization and assessment; and (2) careful articulation of the expectations. Both rely heavily on our ability to rigorously and consistently assess QSP models. In this manuscript, we wish to discuss the meaning and purpose of such an assessment in the context of QSP model development and elaborate on the differentiating features of QSP that render such an endeavor challenging. We argue that QSP establishes a conceptual, integrative framework rather than a specific and well-defined computational methodology. QSP elicits the use of a wide variety of modeling and computational methodologies optimized with respect to specific applications and available data modalities, which exceed the data structures employed by chemometrics and PK/PD models. While the range of options fosters creativity and promises to substantially advance our ability to design pharmaceutical interventions rationally and optimally, our expectations of QSP models need to be clearly articulated and agreed on, with assessment emphasizing the scope of QSP studies rather than the methods used. Nevertheless, QSP should not be considered an independent approach, rather one of many in the broader continuum of computational models.

Current practices for QSP model assessment: an IQ consortium survey.

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) modeling is increasingly applied in the pharmaceutical industry to influence decision making across a wide range of stages from early discovery to clinical development to post-marketing activities. Development of standards for how these models are constructed, assessed, and communicated is of active interest to the modeling community and regulators but is complicated by the wide variability in the structures and intended uses of the underlying models and the diverse expertise of QSP modelers. With this in mind, the IQ Consortium conducted a survey across the pharmaceutical/biotech industry to understand current practices for QSP modeling. This article presents the survey results and provides insights into current practices and methods used by QSP practitioners based on model type and the intended use at various stages of drug development. The survey also highlights key areas for future development including better integration with statistical methods, standardization of approaches towards virtual populations, and increased use of QSP models for late-stage clinical development and regulatory submissions.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10928-022-09811-1.

Artificial intelligence-guided precision treatment of chronic kidney disease-mineral bone disorder.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD)–mineral bone disorder (MBD) is a complex clinical syndrome that begins early during CKD and evolves into one of the deadliest complications of CKD through its effects on the cardiovascular and skeletal systems. Achievement of treatment goals to decrease the risk of accelerated cardiovascular events and fractures has been challenging. We hypothesized that application of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) modeling combined with artificial intelligence techniques could improve the management of CKD–MBD with the goal of improving outcomes for patients with CKD. We present the implementation of a reinforcement learning (RL) approach to achieve the prescribed goals for serum calcium, phosphorus, and parathyroid hormone through concurrent dosing of phosphate binders, vitamin D analogs, and calcimimetics by simulation in 80 subjects in Matlab. In silico simulation results demonstrate that the application of a QSP model coupled with RL more effectively and quickly achieves treatment goals even in the setting of inferior simulated subject compliance with medical therapy and identifies key decision variables for therapeutic recommendations.

Simulations of tumor growth and response to immunotherapy by coupling a spatial agent-based model with a whole-patient quantitative systems pharmacology model.

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models and spatial agent-based models (ABM) are powerful and efficient approaches for the analysis of biological systems and for clinical applications. Although QSP models are becoming essential in discovering predictive biomarkers and developing combination therapies through in silico virtual trials, they are inadequate to capture the spatial heterogeneity and randomness that characterize complex biological systems, and specifically the tumor microenvironment. Here, we extend our recently developed spatial QSP (spQSP) model to analyze tumor growth dynamics and its response to immunotherapy at different spatio-temporal scales. In the model, the tumor spatial dynamics is governed by the ABM, coupled to the QSP model, which includes the following compartments: central (blood system), tumor, tumor-draining lymph node, and peripheral (the rest of the organs and tissues). A dynamic recruitment of T cells and myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSC) from the QSP central compartment has been implemented as a function of the spatial distribution of cancer cells. The proposed QSP-ABM coupling methodology enables the spQSP model to perform as a coarse-grained model at the whole-tumor scale and as an agent-based model at the regions of interest (ROIs) scale. Thus, we exploit the spQSP model potential to characterize tumor growth, identify T cell hotspots, and perform qualitative and quantitative descriptions of cell density profiles at the invasive front of the tumor. Additionally, we analyze the effects of immunotherapy at both whole-tumor and ROI scales under different tumor growth and immune response conditions. A digital pathology computational analysis of triple-negative breast cancer specimens is used as a guide for modeling the immuno-architecture of the invasive front.

A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model of Liver Lipid Metabolism for Investigation of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is a metabolic and inflammatory disease that afflicts many people worldwide and presently has few treatment options. To enhance the preclinical to clinical translation and the design of early clinical trials for novel therapeutics, we developed a Quantitative Systems Pharmacology model of human hepatocyte lipid metabolism. The intended application of the model is for simulating anti-steatotic therapies for reversing fatty liver. We parameterized the model using literature data from humans with both normal and elevated liver fat. We assessed that the model construct was sufficient to generate a virtual population of NAFLD patients that matched relevant statistics of a published clinical cohort, and then validated the model response to treatment by simulating pioglitazone and diet intervention in the virtual population. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the best points of intervention for reducing hepatic steatosis. Analysis of the model suggests the most potent method for reducing hepatic steatosis is by limiting non-esterified fatty acid flux from the adipose to the liver.

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Modeling Framework of Autophagy in Tuberculosis: Application to Adjunctive Metformin Host-Directed Therapy.

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) modeling of the host immune response against Mycobacterium tuberculosis can inform the rational design of host-directed therapies (HDTs). We aimed to develop a QSP framework to evaluate the effects of metformin-associated autophagy induction in combination with antibiotics. A QSP framework for autophagy was developed by extending a model for host immune response to include adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase (AMPK)-mTOR-autophagy signaling. This model was combined with pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models for metformin and antibiotics against M. tuberculosis. We compared the model predictions to mice infection experiments and derived predictions for the pathogen- and host-associated dynamics in humans treated with metformin in combination with antibiotics. The model adequately captured the observed bacterial load dynamics in mice M. tuberculosis infection models treated with metformin. Simulations for adjunctive metformin therapy in newly diagnosed patients suggested a limited yet dose-dependent effect of metformin on reduction of the intracellular bacterial load when the overall bacterial load is low, late during antibiotic treatment. We present the first QSP framework for HDTs against M. tuberculosis, linking cellular-level autophagy effects to disease progression and adjunctive HDT treatment response. This framework may be extended to guide the design of HDTs against M. tuberculosis.

Application of different approaches to generate virtual patient populations for the quantitative systems pharmacology model of erythropoiesis.

In a standard situation, a quantitative systems pharmacology model describes a "reference patient," and the model parameters are fixed values allowing only the mean values to be described. However, the results of clinical trials include a description of variability in patients' responses to a drug, which is typically expressed in terms of conventional statistical parameters, such as standard deviations (SDs) from mean values. Therefore, in this study, we propose and compare four different approaches: (1) Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC); (2) model fitting to Monte Carlo sample; (3) population of clones; (4) stochastically bounded selection to generate virtual patient populations based on experimentally measured mean data and SDs. We applied these approaches to generate virtual patient populations in the QSP model of erythropoiesis. According to the results of our research, stochastically bounded selection showed slightly better results than the other three methods as it allowed the description of any number of patients from clinical trials and could be applied in the case of complex models with a large number of variable parameters.

Development of and insights from systems pharmacology models of antibody‐drug conjugates

Antibody‐drug conjugates (ADCs) have gained traction in the oncology space in the past few decades, with significant progress being made in recent years. Although the use of pharmacometric modeling is well‐established in the drug development process, there is an increasing need for a better quantitative biological understanding of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic relationships of these complex molecules. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) approaches can assist in this endeavor; recent computational QSP models incorporate ADC‐specific mechanisms and use data‐driven simulations to predict experimental outcomes. Various modeling approaches and platforms have been developed at the in vitro, in vivo, and clinical scales, and can be further integrated to facilitate preclinical to clinical translation. These new tools can help researchers better understand the nature and mechanisms of these targeted therapies to help achieve a more favorable therapeutic window. This review delves into the world of systems pharmacology modeling of ADCs, discussing various modeling efforts in the field thus far.

A quantitative systems pharmacology model of plasma potassium regulation by the kidney and aldosterone.

Plasma potassium regulation within a narrow range is vital for life. The risk for hyperkalemia increases when kidney function is impaired and with therapeutic interventions such as mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs). The kidney maintains potassium homeostasis by matching potassium intake and excretion, in part through the action of aldosterone. A mechanistic mathematical model was developed and used to investigate the effect of renal impairment and MRAs on plasma potassium levels. The model describes renal potassium filtration, reabsorption, and secretion along the nephron; potassium-aldosterone regulatory feedbacks; whole body potassium balance; and the pharmacologic effects of MRAs. The model was calibrated by fitting (1) the plasma potassium and aldosterone response to potassium infusion in humans on high/low potassium diets, and (2) the acute potassium excretion response to spironolactone. The model was validated by predicting steady-state plasma potassium with sustained spironolactone treatment in hyperaldosteronism patients. The model was then used to demonstrate that (1) declining renal function alone has a small effect on plasma potassium for GFR > 30ml/min, but an increasing effect as GFR approaches end stage renal disease (GFR ~ 15ml/min) (2) the effect of increasing potassium intake has minimal effect at normal GFRs but increasing effect on plasma potassium as GFR declines, and 3) MRAs have a minor effect on plasma potassium when GFR is normal, but cause larger increases as GFR falls below 60ml/min. This model provides a quantitative framework for investigating integrated impacts of diseases and therapies in this complex system.