Progressive Climate Change Research Articles

Spatial and temporal variation of Fagus sylvatica growth in marginal areas under progressive climate change

The escalating decline in growth trends of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) observed across its distribution area pose a major ecological and economic challenge for countries with a high proportion of beech, such as Slovenia. In this study, the effects of climate change were examined at a high-resolution scale, encompassing the large climatic, orographic, and ecological variability of beech forests in Slovenia. Using basal area increment data (BAI) from a tree-ring network (48 sites in Slovenia), modelled climate data, and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), we found an average growth decline of 11% between the 1953–1985 and 1986–2018 subperiods, affecting 90.5% of the forest stands. Based on climate data, we defined two contrasted marginal areas of beech presence (warm and cold) and analysed the growth changes over time. The warm marginal areas, which predominate near the geographical margin of beech distribution with a sub-Mediterranean climatic regime, were most affected by growth decline, threatening the survival of beech populations in the area. In contrast, cold marginal areas, mainly at high elevations in the Alps, where beech growth had previously been limited by low temperatures, turned out to be the only ones where growth of beech increased under prevailing warming conditions. Consequently, high elevation regions harbour climatic potential for increased beech growth performance, and may represent areas of future expansion of the species.

Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Abstract. Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events, the most pronounced ones in the years 2010, 2012 and 2019. With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe and persistent. So far, however, projections of ice loss and sea level change from Greenland typically rely on scenarios which only take gradual changes in the climate into account. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), we investigate the effect of extreme melt events on the overall mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the changes in ice flow, invoked by the altered surface topography. As a first constraint, this study estimates the overall effect of extreme melt events on the cumulative mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that the sea level contribution from Greenland might increase by 2 to 45 cm (0.2 % to 14 %) by the year 2300 if extreme events occur more frequently in the future under a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, and the ice sheet area might be reduced by an additional 6000 to 26 000 km2 by 2300 in comparison to future warming scenarios without extremes. In conclusion, projecting the future sea level contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet requires consideration of the changes in both the frequency and intensity of extreme events. It is crucial to individually address these extremes at a monthly resolution as temperature forcing with the same excess temperature but evenly distributed over longer timescales (e.g., seasonal) leads to less sea level rise than for the simulations of the resolved extremes. Extremes lead to additional mass loss and thinning. This, in turn, reduces the driving stress and surface velocities, ultimately dampening the ice loss attributed to ice flow and discharge. Overall, we find that the surface elevation feedback largely amplifies melting for scenarios with and without extremes, with additional mass loss attributed to this feedback having the greatest impact on projected sea level.

Water-Deficit Stress in the Epiphytic Elkhorn Fern: Insight into Photosynthetic Response.

Progressive climate changes cause disturbance of water relations in tropical rainforests, where epiphytic ferns are an important element of biodiversity. In these plants, the efficiency of photosynthesis is closely related to the efficiency of water transport. In addition, due to the lack of contact with the soil, epiphytes are extremely susceptible to water-deficit stress. The aim of this experiment was to determine the response of the photosynthetic apparatus of Platycerium bifurcatum to a 6-week water deficit. The hydration and pigment composition of leaves were determined using reflectance spectroscopy and epifluorescence microscopy. Chlorophyll a fluorescence kinetics parameters, fluorescence induction curves (OJIP), low-temperature fluorescence curves at 77 K and proline concentration were analyzed at seven time points. After a decrease in leaf hydration by 10-15%, there were disturbances in the oxidation-reduction balance, especially in the initial photochemical reactions, a rapid decrease in plant vitality (PI) and significant fluctuations in chlorophyll a fluorescence parameters. The relative size of PSI antenna structures compared to PSII decreased in the following weeks of water deficit. Changes in photochemical reactions were accompanied by a decrease in gross photosynthesis and an increase in proline concentration. Changes in the functioning of photosynthesis light phase and the pigment composition of leaves are related to the resistance of elkhorn fern to long-term water deficit.

ROZWIĄZANIA DLA POPRAWY WARUNKÓW ŚRODOWISKA MIEJSKIEGO, NA PRZYKŁADZIE STAREGO MIASTA W KRAKOWIE

The conditions of the urban environment in the aspect of progressive climate change mean that city spatial planning is becoming an increasingly greater challenge. The specificity of Krakow’s centre stems from its historical urban grid and the placement of an exceptionally large fragment of the city under heritage conservation. This paper is the result of analyses in terms of urban environmental conditions in the Old Town area, and the objective of the study was to determine possible solutions to improve the living conditions of residents and enhance biodiversity. The measures are based on the idea of a human-friendly city that also limits the negative consequences of urbanisation.

Year-Round Testing of Coastal Waters of the Gulf of Gdańsk in the Baltic Sea for Detecting Oil in a Seawater Column Using the Fluorescence Method

Progressive climate changes and the increase in the occurrence of extreme weather phenomena indicate the need to take action to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. One of the main factors affecting climate change is the state of waters that transport heat. Oil pollution present in the water contributes to the absorption of radiation and physico-chemical changes in the sea, which has an impact on the marine ecosystem. This indicates the need to develop methods for effective oil spill detection. This study aimed to improve the methods of early detection of threats related to oil spills in the marine environment, especially when the source of oil may be invisible in the depths of the sea. Therefore, the method based on the fluorometric index is proposed, and its effectiveness for oil detection in seawater is studied. The study has answered the question of how biological activity during a whole year influences the effectiveness of oil detection by the proposed fluorometric index method. Therefore, for the calculation of the fluorometric index, the changes in the seawater fluorescence spectrum in the ultraviolet range were determined, which occurred under the influence of diffusion of some oil components in the sea. The principle of detection of oil contaminants based on the excitation-emission fluorescence spectrum is described. For the measurements, natural seawater samples used in the laboratory were exposed to a mixture of crude oil and oils commonly found in navigation. The effectiveness of oil substance detection using the fluorometric index in the biologically productive and unproductive seasons was analyzed for seawater in the vicinity of Gdynia and Gdansk ports in Poland in northern Europe. The results of excitation-emission spectra and fluorometric index indicate that the changes in the biological activity during the year do not affect the detectability of oil present in seawater for the considered oil-to-water ratio. Summarize the sensitivity analysis of the method indicates the possibility of detection of oil contamination regardless of the season. The obtained results pave the way for the construction of an underwater device to detect oil in the vicinity of such a detector.

Localized Strong Warming and Humidification Over Winter Japan Tied to Sea Ice Retreat

AbstractEast Asian winter weather has altered dramatically in response to progressing climate change. However, analysis of time‐averaged atmospheric fields might obscure climate change signals that could relate to specific types of events. This study aimed to detect climate change signals for various background atmospheric fields by applying classification to daily surface pressure patterns. We found a pronounced trend of increase in surface air temperature over Japan since the 1980s, stronger than the seasonal mean trend, when dominating cold air advection from the Sea of Okhotsk. This cold air was warmed and humidified by the retreat of sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk. In contrast, the warming trend was mitigated when warm air advection was dominant. These results highlight the importance of daily background atmospheric conditions in amplifying and localizing the impact of regional climate change.

Impact of climate change on waterborne infections and intoxications.

Progressive climate change holds the potential for increasing human health risks from waterborne infections and intoxications, e. g. through an increase in pathogen concentrations in water bodies, through the establishment of new pathogens or through possible changes in pathogen properties. This paper presents some examples of potential impacts of climate change in Germany. Non-cholera Vibrio occur naturally in seawater, but can proliferate significantly in shallow water at elevated temperatures. In the case of Legionella, climate change could lead to temporary or longer-term increased incidences of legionellosis due to the combination of warm and wet weather. Higher temperatures in piped cold water or lower temperatures in piped hot water may also create conditions conducive to higher Legionella concentrations. In nutrient-rich water bodies, increased concentrations of toxigenic cyanobacteria may occur as temperatures rise. Heavy rainfall following storms or prolonged periods of heat and drought can lead to increased levels of human pathogenic viruses being washed into water bodies. Rising temperatures also pose a potential threat to human health through pathogens causing mycoses and facultatively pathogenic micro-organisms: increased infection rates with non-tuberculous mycobacteria or fungi have been documented after extreme weather events.

The use of UAVs in supporting the preservation of the industrial and mining heritage in the Ruhr area

Over the last decades, all hard coal mines (the last one in 2018) and many industrial facilities (e.g. coking plants, steel mills) have been closed in the Ruhr region as part of an ongoing, long-term transition process. The centuries-old mining tradition is nevertheless very much embedded in the population. For this reason, the monuments of the industrial age are regarded as defining, identity-forming landmarks that must be preserved as original as possible in the future - not only in the Ruhr region, but also in many comparable regions in Germany (e.g. Saarland, Ibbenbüren or the Aachen area) and worldwide. Extreme weather conditions caused by the fast progressing climate change are affecting these structures of disused steel mills or coking plants. Cracks, paint spalling and other material damage develop, making expensive refurbishment or, in the worst case, demolition necessary. Climate change also affects the subsoil and thus the stability of the facilities by negative environmental influences such as drought or moisture. As part of a feasibility study, the Research Center of Post-Mining is developing an innovative method for non-destructively assessing the condition of monuments of industrial and mining heritage. UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) equipped with optical, thermal and multispectral sensors are being used for the first time for this purpose. They collect high precision and high-resolution data, which is viewed and fused together, making it possible to model the complex buildings comprehensively in 3D (+ time) and to examine them for possible damage. In the long term, the highly accurate 3D-models with all their information will be integrated into the spatial data infrastructure of the Ruhr Regional Association (RVR) and thus made available to a broad public and experts from the fields of history, architecture or monument preservation.

Challenges and advances towards the rational design of microalgal synthetic promoters in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii.

Microalgae hold enormous potential to provide a safe and sustainable source of high-value compounds, acting as carbon-fixing biofactories that could help to mitigate rapidly progressing climate change. Bioengineering microalgal strains will be key to optimizing and modifying their metabolic outputs, and to render them competitive with established industrial biotechnology hosts, such as bacteria or yeast. To achieve this, precise and tuneable control over transgene expression will be essential, which would require the development and rational design of synthetic promoters as a key strategy. Among green microalgae, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii represents the reference species for bioengineering and synthetic biology; however, the repertoire of functional synthetic promoters for this species, and for microalgae generally, is limited in comparison to other commercial chassis, emphasizing the need to expand the current microalgal gene expression toolbox. Here, we discuss state-of-the-art promoter analyses, and highlight areas of research required to advance synthetic promoter development in C. reinhardtii. In particular, we exemplify high-throughput studies performed in other model systems that could be applicable to microalgae, and propose novel approaches to interrogating algal promoters. We lastly outline the major limitations hindering microalgal promoter development, while providing novel suggestions and perspectives for how to overcome them.

Data Analysis and Forecasting to Mitigate Climate Change in Drylands Areas

Drylands are zones covering over 40% of the earth’s land surface, where precipitation is balanced by evaporation from surfaces and by transpiration by plants. This short review looks at two key areas where drylands are increasing, the Sahara-Sahel-Arabian Peninsula zone, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, and shows ways that data analysis and forecasting in both geoengineering and in genomics techniques may help in understanding and progressing climate change mitigation.

Sustainable procurement for carbon neutrality of buildings: A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)-based bonus/malus system to consider external cost in the bid price

In order to exploit the existing GHG emissions reduction potential of a building in the early design phase, approaches and incentives are needed to promote sustainable procurement already in the tendering and awarding phase. The objective of this study is to develop a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)-based bonus/malus system for the public procurement of buildings and provide a step-by-step guideline for practical application. GHG emissions are monetized and added to the bid price by using shadow prices to calculate external cost and a results-based climate finance (RBCF) approach to determine a GHG emissions bonus/malus. The results show that under the assumptions of the validation example, a 38 percent reduction in GHG emissions can be achieved at only a 10 percent increase in cost. It can be concluded that the application of the LCA-based bonus/malus system leads to a reduction in GHG emissions and thus combats progressive climate change.

Bioclimatic Characterization Relating to Temperature and Subsequent Future Scenarios of Vine Growing across the Apulia Region in Southern Italy

The progressive climate change has an impact on the quantity and quality of grapes. Among meteorological parameters, air temperature is believed to have a direct influence on grape yield and composition, as well as on the organoleptic characteristics of wines. Therefore, in this work three bioclimatic indices based on temperature have been considered, with the aim of classifying the climate in the winegrowing region of Apulia (southern Italy) based on historical periods of thirty years (1961–1990 and 1991–2022) and verifying its evolution in the future in relation to global warming under two different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, by combining four global climate models. The results showed that the period 2021–2040 was almost unchanged compared to the last historical period of 1991–2022. The differences between the two SSPs became more pronounced as time progressed until the end of this century. By 2081–2100, SSP2–4.5, considered the most likely and mildest future scenario, demonstrated the existence of areas still suitable for quality viticulture, mainly in the higher altitudes of the Murgia plateau, the Gargano promontory and the Pre–Apennine area. In contrast, SSP5–8.5, described as “highly unlikely”, showed a dramatic shift of more than 90% of Apulia region to “too hot” classes to ensure the survival of viticulture for all the bioclimatic indices considered. These results suggest the winegrowers should consider short– and long–term solutions and adaptations in order to preserve the regional tradition and wine quality and to plan the Apulian viticulture for future scenarios.

Review of ticks attacking domestic dogs and cats, and their epidemiological role in the transmission of tick-borne pathogens in Poland.

Progressive climate change plays a major role in the expansion of tick populations, as well as the transmission of tick-borne disease pathogens (TBPs) to humans and animals throughout the world. Zoonoses are a growing environmental problem of great importance for public health. In Poland, domestic dogs and cats are mainly infested by Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes crenulatus, Ixodes hexagonus, Ixodes rugicollis and Dermacentor reticulatus ticks from the Ixodidae family. Other tick species, such as I.apronophorus and Haemaphysalis concinna, recorded sporadically on domestic dogs or cats, may expand their range in the future and successfully infest pets. Individual cases of infestations in Poland with foreign tick species, such as Rhipicephalus sanguineus, are known and may soon be recorded more frequently. The aim of this review is to summarize the occurrence and identification of tick species and TBDs that are present or are likely to spread in Poland, which, given the medical and veterinary importance of ticks, may help in the development of public health strategies. A comprehensive literature review of publications and own research and data analysis was performed, obtained from reports and scientific descriptions on the epidemiology of tick-borne diseases. The ecology of ticks and hosts in urban and suburban environments is critical for quantifying the parameters necessary for an initial risk assessment, and identifying public health strategies to control and prevent TBDs. In the future, these species may expand their range of occurrence and their host, becoming common members of the Polish tick fauna. Anaplasma, Babesia, Borrelia and Rickettsia spp. are the major TBPs in Poland, and their prevalence is usually higher in dogs than cats.

The community of soil fungi associated with the western red cedar (Thuja plicata Donn ex D. Don, 1824)

ABSTRACT The western red cedar (Thuja plicata Donn ex D. Don), an important forest-forming species in the Western part of the North American continent, is an alien species naturalised in Europe. It is popular and highly valued in horticulture. While considering the progressing climate change, it may also be a potential alternative to native species in European forests. The community of soil fungi associated with the western red cedar in forested areas of Europe has not been fully determined. Thus, this study is aimed to identify the community of soil fungi associated with the western red cedar. The experimental plots are located in the Kościan Forest District (51°98’87″ N; 16°23’54″ E). All soil samples were taken from the topsoil layer at a depth of 25 cm with a trowel, three from the centre of natural regeneration (1G, 2G, 5G) and three from the centre stand under the canopy of old-growth western red cedar (3G, 4G, 6G). Fungi were identified directly from the soil based on the ITS1 rDNA region. The derived product was sequenced using Illumina’s sequencing by synthesis (SBS) technology. Sequences were referred to the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) database applying the BLAST algorithm. The fungal counts were defined based on the number of operational taxonomic units (OTU) in the sample. The OTU number was 835 206, with fungal isolates accounting for 683 095 (81.79%). A total of 8 591 taxa belonging to the Kingdom Fungi were identified. The species with the greatest shares in the community included Mortierella spp. (10.5%), Russula spp. (5.6%), Hydnum spp. (3.44%), Solicoccozyma spp. (3.1%) and Penicillium spp. (2.2%). Results showed that saprotrophs and mycorrhizal fungi predominated in the community. The dominance of ectomycorrhizal fungi over arbuscular ones, quite impressive natural regeneration was shown in T. plicata stands in Kościan. Subsequent research should take into account tree stands in Poland in which natural regeneration does not occur or occurs sporadically.

Transgenerational Effects of Water Limitation on Reproductive Mother Plants in a Common Garden of the Shrub Frangula alnus

A better understanding of responses to water limitation in woody species can help us to cope with the consequences of the progressing climate change. We focused on the putative transgenerational effects of water limitation in the maternal environment during reproduction. Water was restricted for cuttings of Frangula alnus Mill. in a common garden setting, with a Belgian (local), Italian and Swedish provenance, during the growing season of 2020 and mature berries were collected during the whole reproductive phase. Stones that were extracted from the berries were given a cold stratification. In the next spring, the germination percentage of the stones from the water restricted maternal environment was significantly higher than that of the stones from the normal maternal environment, for the three provenances, notwithstanding the fact that stone weight was not different. The timing of seedling emergence was advanced for the water-limited maternal environment, but only for the stones harvested when mature berry production was the highest (9th and 16th of July 2020). Population differentiation was observed for the timing of seedling emergence, which reflected population differentiation for bud burst of the mother plants in the common garden, including a counter-gradient effect for the Swedish provenance, and corroborating the suggestion that the timing of seedling emergence and leaf phenology may have a common genetic basis. In addition, the Swedish provenance displayed a somewhat more stable germination percentage over the whole berry collection period when the stones were harvested. A partitioning of variance analysis suggested that germination percentage is more genetically determined than timing of seedling emergence, probably reflecting the more important need to sense the environment for an adequate timing of emergence.

The Impact Assessment of Water Supply DMA Formation on the Monitoring System Sensitivity

One of the main tasks that water companies face is limiting water losses through the distribution network. This issue is becoming more and more relevant because of progressive climate changes and rising water resource deficiencies. The first step to reducing water losses is the proper detection of leakages, including their location and size. A common approach, called active leakage control, is to divide the water network into District Metered Areas (DMAs) to detect unreported leaks in the water distribution system (WDS). The operating flow meter device at the border of the DMA allows the determination of the number of water losses by balancing water inflows into the zone and billed water consumption. However, to precisely locate a water leak it is necessary to equip the DMA with an adequate number of pressure sensors. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of water supply DMA formation on the sensitivity of the monitoring system in accordance with the number and location of the pressure sensors and the geometric structure of the water pipes in the DMA in order to successfully detect water leakage. The research was conducted on a model grid network with a constant node number but a differential pipe structure. Subsequently, results were verified in the conditions of a real water supply network. The obtained tests showed no clear relationship between the effectiveness of leak detection and the network complexity but confirmed a significant improvement in leak detection after equipping the monitoring system with an additional pressure gauge.

An Approach to Assess the Water Resources Reliability and Its Management

One of the factors limiting the possibility of the development of urban agglomerations is access to drinking water. Due to progressive climate change, the available water resources are limited. The paper proposes new indicators of limiting the development of agglomerations related to the availability of water resources and the production capacity of water treatment plants, a method for assessing the diversification of water resources (using the Pielou index), and a water loss balance was prepared based on International Water Association (IWA) standards. On the basis of the obtained results, the potential increase in the number of inhabitants indicators (∆PR, ∆PP) and the time for the development of agglomeration indicators (TR, TP), the directions of development of the studied agglomerations in terms of the possibility of water supply were indicated. The main problems were reducing the amount of water losses, appropriate management of the migration policy of the population, and the necessity to look for alternative sources of water.

Financial instruments of green transition

Green transition creates change not only for the real economy, but also for widely perceived finance, exposing them both to risks and opportunities. This is of fundamental significance for enterprises and financial institutions, which need to adapt. Risk increases in areas subjected to regulatory and market pressure, forcing changes in market strategies or production methods. Regulations may present opportunities as well, and those may include clean technologies, in particular technologies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the development of renewable energy sources, a digital revolution on the energy market, and introducing new elements into the financial market. Taking these trends into account is essential to economic success. Underestimating the progressing climate change, and the intensive human activity, has made climate protection and the need to transform the economy a priority. Consequently, the implementation of green transition requires appropriate funds for the financing of green projects. Considering the above trends in the global economy, the authors strive to present the financial instruments available for supporting the development of green transition, taking into consideration, in particular, the power market. Hence, they discuss the financial instruments used for energy transition and the fight against climate change. The authors point to the importance of green finance, which as an element of the financial system, takes over the responsibility for providing the funds and tools both for financing climate goals, and for effective risk management by the entities involved in this process.

Growth and Yield of Rice as Influenced by Nitrogen and Water Management Approaches

Achieving sustainability of the rice production in the irrigated areas in eastern India in general and Odisha in particular, under progressive climate change and variability, necessitates adoption of practices and technologies that increase food production, adaptation and mitigation in a feasible way. A field experiment was carried out for two consecutive years during 2020-21 and 2021-22 with kharif rice in the research farm of OUAT, Bhubaneswar. The experiment was conducted in a strip plot design having four each of water and nitrogen management approaches replicated four times. All the growth attributes like plant height, tillers/hill, LAI and dry matter production were superior under 3DADPW and INM treatments in water and nitrogen management approaches, respectively. Rotational irrigation 3 DADPW in rice resulted in higher grain yield (5.28 t/ha) followed by soil saturation. Similarly, INM practices comprising of Green manuring + 75% STBNR produced higher grain yield (5.45 t/ha) as compared to other N-management options and was closely followed by STBNR.

Changes in the Structure of the Snow Cover of Hansbreen (S Spitsbergen) Derived from Repeated High-Frequency Radio-Echo Sounding

This paper explores the potential of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) monitoring for an advanced understanding of snow cover processes and structure. For this purpose, the study uses the Hansbreen (SW Spitsbergen) records that are among the longest and the most comprehensive snow-cover GPR monitoring records available on Svalbard. While snow depth (HS) is frequently the only feature derived from high-frequency radio-echo sounding (RES), this study also offers an analysis of the physical characteristics (grain shape, size, hardness, and density) of the snow cover structure. We demonstrate that, based on GPR data (800 MHz) and a single snow pit, it is possible to extrapolate the detailed features of snow cover to the accumulation area. Field studies (snow pits and RES) were conducted at the end of selected accumulation seasons in the period 2008–2019, under dry snow conditions and HS close to the maximum. The paper shows that although the snow cover structure varies in space and from season to season, a single snow pit site can represent the entire center line of the accumulation zone. Numerous hard layers (HLs) (up to 30% of the snow column) were observed that reflect progressive climate change, but there is no trend in quantity, thickness, or percentage contribution in total snow depth in the study period. HLs with strong crystal bonds create a “framework” in the snowpack, which reduces compaction and, consequently, the ice formation layers slow down the rate of snowpack metamorphosis. The extrapolation of snow pit data through radar profiling is a novel solution that can improve spatial recognition of snow cover characteristics and the accuracy of calculation of snow water equivalent (SWE).