Progression Of Multimorbidity Research Articles

Fifteen-year trajectories of multimorbidity and polypharmacy in Dutch primary care-A longitudinal analysis of age and sex patterns.

ObjectiveAfter stratifying for age, sex and multimorbidity at baseline, our aim is to analyse time trends in incident multimorbidity and polypharmacy in the 15-year clinical trajectories of individual patients in a family medicine setting.MethodsThis study was carried out using data from the Registration Network Family Medicine in the South of the Netherlands. The clinical trajectories of 10037 subjects during the 15-year period (2000–2014) were analyzed in a repeated measurement of using a generalized estimating equations model as well as a multilevel random intercept model with repeated measurements to determine patterns of incident multimorbidity and polypharmacy. Hierarchical age-period-cohort models were used to generate age and cohort trajectories for comparison with prevalence trends in multimorbidity literature.ResultsMultimorbidity was more common in females than in males throughout the duration of the 15-year trajectory (females: 39.6%; males: 33.5%). With respective ratios of 11.7 and 5.9 between the end and the beginning of the 15-year period, the youngest female and male groups showed a substantial increase in multimorbidity prevalence. Ratios in the oldest female and male groups were 2.2 and 1.9 respectively. Females had higher levels of multimorbidity than males in the 0-24-year and 25-44-year age groups, but the levels converged to a prevalence of 92.2% in the oldest male and 90.7% in the oldest female group. Similar, albeit, moderate differences were found in polypharmacy patterns.ConclusionsWe sought to specify the progression of multimorbidity from an early age. As a result, our study adds to the multimorbidity literature by specifying changes in chronic disease accumulation with relation to polypharmacy, and by tracking differences in patient trajectories according to age and sex. Multimorbidity and polypharmacy are common and their prevalence is accelerating, with a relatively rapid increase in younger groups. From the point of view of family medicine, this underlines the need for a longitudinal approach and a life course perspective in patient care.

Inequalities in incident and prevalent multimorbidity in England, 2004–19: a population-based, descriptive study

The increasing burden of multimorbidity and its socioeconomic gradient poses unique challenges to the provision and structure of health care. We aimed to describe inequalities and trends over time in multimorbidity prevalence, incidence, and case fatality among adults of all ages in England using primary care electronic health records. We used a random sample of 991 243 individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database registered at participating general practices within England between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2019, linked to the 2015 English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). We used the following two outcome measures: basic multimorbidity, comprising two or more chronic conditions; and complex multimorbidity, comprising at least three chronic conditions affecting at least three body systems. We calculated crude, age-standardised, and age-sex-standardised annual incidence, prevalence, and case fatality rates, along with median age of onset for both multimorbidity types. We calculated absolute and relative inequalities for each outcome. In 2004, 30·8% of our study population had basic multimorbidity and 15·1% had complex multimorbidity. This increased to 52·8% and 32·7%, respectively, in 2019. Although the overall incidence of basic multimorbidity remained stable over the 16-year study period, the incidence among people of working age and the incidence of complex multimorbidity increased gradually. Socioeconomic deprivation was associated with an increased incidence of both multimorbidity types in working-age adults. The median age at onset of complex multimorbidity was 7 years younger for the most deprived quintile of the IMD compared with the least deprived quintile. The burden of multimorbidity in England has increased substantially over the past 16 years with persistent inequalities, which are worse in working-age adults and for complex multimorbidity. Prevention efforts to reduce the onset and slow the progression of multimorbidity are essential to reduce the increasing impact on patients and health systems alike. University of Liverpool and UK National Institute for Health Research School for Public Health Research.

Multimorbidity Accumulation Among Middle-Aged Americans: Differences by Race/Ethnicity and Body Mass Index.

Obesity and multimorbidity are more prevalent among U.S. racial/ethnic minority groups. Evaluating racial/ethnic disparities in disease accumulation according to body mass index (BMI) may guide interventions to reduce multimorbidity burden in vulnerable racial/ethnic groups. We used data from the 1998-2016 Health and Retirement Study on 8 106 participants aged 51-55 at baseline. Disease burden and multimorbidity (≥2 co-occurring diseases) were assessed using 7 chronic diseases: arthritis, cancer, heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, lung disease, and stroke. Four BMI categories were defined per convention: normal, overweight, obese class 1, and obese class 2/3. Generalized estimating equations models with inverse probability weights estimated the accumulation of chronic diseases. Overweight and obesity were more prevalent in non-Hispanic Black (82.3%) and Hispanic (78.9%) than non-Hispanic White (70.9 %) participants at baseline. The baseline burden of disease was similar across BMI categories, but disease accumulation was faster in the obese class 2/3 and marginally in the obese class 1 categories compared with normal BMI. Black participants across BMI categories had a higher initial burden and faster accumulation of disease over time, while Hispanics had a lower initial burden and similar rate of accumulation, compared with Whites. Black participants, including those with normal BMI, reach the multimorbidity threshold 5-6 years earlier compared with White participants. Controlling weight and reducing obesity early in the lifecourse may slow the progression of multimorbidity in later life. Further investigations are needed to identify the factors responsible for the early and progressing nature of multimorbidity in Blacks of nonobese weight.

Critical review of multimorbidity outcome measures suitable for low-income and middle-income country settings: perspectives from the Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases (GACD) researchers

ObjectivesThere is growing recognition around the importance of multimorbidity in low-income and middle-income country (LMIC) settings, and specifically the need for pragmatic intervention studies to reduce the risk of developing...

Biological and Functional Biomarkers of Aging: Definition, Characteristics, and How They Can Impact Everyday Cancer Treatment.

Purpose of ReviewRecognize which are the elements that predict why a person is aging faster or slower and which intervention we can arrange to slow down the process, which permits to prevent or delay the progression of multimorbidity and disability.Recent FindingsAging is a complex process that leads to changes in all the systems of the body and all the functions of the person; however, aging develops at different rates in different people, and chronological age is not always consistent with biological age.SummaryGerontologists are focused not only on finding the best theory able to explain aging but also on identifying one or more markers, which are able to describe aging processes. These biomarkers are necessary to better define the aging-related pathologies, manage multimorbidity, and improve the quality of life. The aim of this paper is to review the most recent evidence on aging biomarkers and the clusters related to them for personalization of treatments.

Subtypes of physical frailty and their long-term outcomes: a longitudinal cohort study.

BackgroundComponents of physical frailty cluster into subtypes, but it remains unknown how these might be associated with age‐related functional declines and multimorbidities. This study aims to investigated associations of physical frailty subtypes with functional declines and multimorbidity in a 10 year longitudinal cohort survey.MethodsComplementary longitudinal cohort study used group‐based multitrajectory modelling to verify whether frailty subtypes discovered in Taiwan are presented in another aging cohort, then investigated associations of these subtypes with cognitive decline and multimorbidity. Participants aged ≥50 years were recruited from the third to sixth waves (May 2002 to July 2010) of the National Institute for Longevity Sciences‐Longitudinal Study of Aging, in Japan. People with incomplete data, pre‐frail/frail status before their index wave, and those with incomplete data or who died during follow‐up, were excluded. Group‐based trajectory analysis denoted five established physical frailty criteria as time‐varying binary variables in each wave during follow‐up. Incident frailty was classified as mobility subtype (weakness/slowness), non‐mobility subtype (weight loss/exhaustion), or low physical activity subtype. General linear modelling investigated associations of these frailty subtypes with activities of daily living, digit symbol substitution test (DSST) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) at 2 year follow‐up.ResultsWe identified four longitudinal trajectories of physical frailty, which corroborated the distinct subtypes we discovered previously. Among 940 eligible participants, 38.0% were robust, 18.4% had mobility subtype frailty, 20.7% non‐mobility subtype, and 20.1% low physical activity subtype. People with mobility subtype frailty were older than those with other frailty subtypes or robust status and had higher prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, and heart failure. In the multivariable‐adjusted general linear models, mobility‐subtype frailty was associated with a significantly lower DSST score (point estimate −2.28, P = 0.03) and higher CCI (point estimate 0.82, P < 0.01) than the other groups.ConclusionsMobility‐subtype frailty was associated with functional declines and progression of multimorbidity; the long‐term effects of physical frailty subtypes deserve further investigation.

Measuring biological aging in humans: A quest.

The global population of individuals over the age of 65 is growing at an unprecedented rate and is expected to reach 1.6 billion by 2050. Most older individuals are affected by multiple chronic diseases, leading to complex drug treatments and increased risk of physical and cognitive disability. Improving or preserving the health and quality of life of these individuals is challenging due to a lack of well‐established clinical guidelines. Physicians are often forced to engage in cycles of “trial and error” that are centered on palliative treatment of symptoms rather than the root cause, often resulting in dubious outcomes. Recently, geroscience challenged this view, proposing that the underlying biological mechanisms of aging are central to the global increase in susceptibility to disease and disability that occurs with aging. In fact, strong correlations have recently been revealed between health dimensions and phenotypes that are typical of aging, especially with autophagy, mitochondrial function, cellular senescence, and DNA methylation. Current research focuses on measuring the pace of aging to identify individuals who are “aging faster” to test and develop interventions that could prevent or delay the progression of multimorbidity and disability with aging. Understanding how the underlying biological mechanisms of aging connect to and impact longitudinal changes in health trajectories offers a unique opportunity to identify resilience mechanisms, their dynamic changes, and their impact on stress responses. Harnessing how to evoke and control resilience mechanisms in individuals with successful aging could lead to writing a new chapter in human medicine.

Journey to multimorbidity: longitudinal analysis exploring cardiovascular risk factors and sociodemographic determinants in an urban setting

ObjectiveTo study the social determinants and cardiovascular risk factors for multimorbidity and the acquisition sequence of multimorbidity.DesignLongitudinal study based on anonymised primary care data.SettingGeneral practices in an urban multiethnic borough...

Psychological correlates of multimorbidity and disability accumulation in older adults.

Background/Objectivesattitudes toward life and health are emerging as important psychological contributors to health heterogeneity in ageing. We aimed to explore whether different psychological factors were associated with the rate of chronic disease and disability accumulation over time.Designpopulation-based cohort study between 2001 and 2010.SettingSwedish National study on aging and care in Kungsholmen.Subjectsadults aged 60 and older (N = 2293).Methodslinear mixed models were employed to study the association of life satisfaction, health outlook, resistance to illness, sickness orientation, and health worry with the rate of accumulation of chronic diseases and impaired basic and instrumental activities of daily living. Models were adjusted for demographic, clinical, social, personality and lifestyle factors. Analyses were repeated after excluding individuals with multimorbidity or disability at baseline.Resultshigh life satisfaction and positive health outlook were consistently associated with a lower rate of accumulation and progression of multimorbidity (β −0.064 95% confidence interval [CI] −0.116, −0.011; β −0.065 95% CI −0.121, −0.008, respectively) and disability (β −0.063 95% CI −0.098, −0.028; β −0.042 95% CI −0.079, −0.004, respectively) over time. This was true even for people without multimorbidity or disability at baseline and after adjusting for all covariates.Conclusionspositive attitudes toward life in general and health in particular may be especially important in old age, when the cumulative effects of biological and environmental deficits lead to accelerated health decline. These findings should encourage researchers to use measures of psychological well-being to better understand the multifactorial and diverse process of ageing.

Health behaviour, social support, socio-economic status and the 5-year progression of multimorbidity: Results from the MultiCare Cohort Study.

Background:Multimorbidity in elderly patients is a major challenge for physicians, because of a high prevalence of and associations with many adverse outcomes. However, the mechanisms of progressing multimorbidity are not well-understood. The aim of our study was to determine if the progression of multimorbidity is influenced by health behaviour and social support and to analyse if the patients’ socio-economic status had an effect on these prognostic factors.Methods:The study was designed as prospective cohort study based on interviews of 158 GPs and 3189 patients randomly selected from GP records (response rate: 46.2%). Patients were aged 65–85 years at recruitment and observed in four waves of data collection (dropout rate: 41.5%). Statistical analyses of the ‘hot deck’ imputed data included multilevel mixed-effects linear regression allowing for random effects at the study centre and GP practice within study centre level.Results:Regarding cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, multimorbidity progressed more rapidly in patients who reported less physical activity (ß = −0.28; 95% confidence interval = −0.35 to −0.20), had more tobacco-related pack years (0.15; 0.07–0.22) and consumed less alcohol (−0.21; −0.31 to −0.12) at baseline. Multimorbidity related to psychiatric and pain-related disorders progressed more rapidly if the patients had less perceived social support (−0.31; −0.55 to −0.07) and reported less physical activity (−0.08; −0.15 to −0.02) at baseline. Education and income only slightly modified the effects of these variables.Conclusion:Depending on the multimorbidity cluster, different strategies should be used for slowing down the progression of multimorbidity. Changing lifestyle and increasing social support are beneficial for the entire group of elderly multimorbid patients – regardless of their socio-economic status.Registration:ISRCTN89818205

Distinct trajectories of multimorbidity in primary care were identified using latent class growth analysis

ObjectivesTo investigate the use of latent class growth analysis (LCGA) in understanding onset and changes in multimorbidity over time in older adults. Study Design and SettingThis study used primary care consultations for 42 consensus-defined chronic morbidities over 3 years (2003–2005) by 24,615 people aged >50 years at 10 UK general practices, which contribute to the Consultations in Primary Care Archive database. Distinct groups of people who had similar progression of multimorbidity over time were identified using LCGA. These derived trajectories were tested in another primary care consultation data set with linked self-reported health status. ResultsFive clusters of people representing different trajectories were identified: those who had no recorded chronic problems (40%), those who developed a first chronic morbidity over 3 years (10%), a developing multimorbidity group (37%), a group with increasing number of chronic morbidities (12%), and a multi-chronic group with many chronic morbidities (1%). These trajectories were also identified using another consultation database and associated with self-reported physical and mental health. ConclusionThere are distinct trajectories in the development of multimorbidity in primary care populations, which are associated with poor health. Future research needs to incorporate such trajectories when assessing progression of disease and deterioration of health.