Prognostic Risk Prediction Model Research Articles

Abstract A143: The development of a risk prediction model to predict patients’ likelihood of completing human papillomavirus vaccination

Abstract Background: Human Papillomavirus (HPV) cancers can be preventable if HPV vaccination is received in adolescents before the age of 13, yet only 55% of Oregonian adolescents had an HPV series completion in 2020.2 The recommended vaccination age for HPV recently dropped to age 9. This new recommended age allows providers to offer HPV vaccination with routine vaccinations. To further increase HPV vaccination rates, research is critically needed on new interventions to promote vaccination among vaccine resistant groups, and populations that are most in need of targeted interventions. We assessed patterns in vaccination from 2015-2022, in preparation of the development of a prognostic risk prediction model to identify patients’ likelihood of obtaining HPV vaccination. Methods: We used a retrospective cohort from a large health system to assess vaccination patterns from 2015-2022. Eligible patients were members of Kaiser Permanente Northwest, 9-18 years old, and did not have a history of adverse vaccination outcomes. We assessed vaccination initiation, completion by age, gender and year. Results: Among 29,398 eligible patients, 44.3% had no vaccination, 14.5% had one dose, and 41.2% had completed the series. More patients were vaccinating at earlier ages from 2015-2022. Of those with one dose or who had completed the series, 84% had vaccinated by the age of 12 in 2022 compared to 74% in 2015. The change was greater in boys with 70.5% before age 12 in 2015 compared with 84% in 2022. ConclusionsWhile efforts to increase HPV vaccination and initiate at younger ages have been successful, efforts need to be targeted to specific populations. The patterns of HPV vaccination over the past 7 years highlights improvement, but system level interventions may be needed to adequately increase vaccination among resistant populations. This presentation will discuss the assessment of vaccination patterns in preparation of the development of a prognostic risk prediction model and describe how the model will be used in a system to target populations for early interventions to complete vaccination. Citation Format: Amanda A. Petrik, Matthew Slaugher, Gloria Coronado, Eric Johnson. The development of a risk prediction model to predict patients’ likelihood of completing human papillomavirus vaccination [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 17th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2024 Sep 21-24; Los Angeles, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2024;33(9 Suppl):Abstract nr A143.

Risk prediction model of uterine corpus endometrial carcinoma based on immune-related genes

BackgroundGiven the significant role of immune-related genes in uterine corpus endometrial carcinoma (UCEC) and the long-term outcomes of patients, our objective was to develop a prognostic risk prediction model using immune-related genes to improve the accuracy of UCEC prognosis prediction.MethodsThe Limma, ESTIMATE, and CIBERSORT methods were used for cluster analysis, immune score calculation, and estimation of immune cell proportions. Univariate and multivariate analyses were utilized to develop a prognostic risk model for UCEC. Risk model scores and nomograms were used to evaluate the models. String constructs a protein-protein interaction (PPI) network of genes. The qRT-PCR, immunofluorescence, and immunohistochemistry (IHC) all confirmed the genes.ResultsCluster analysis divided the immune-related genes into four subtypes. 33 immune-related genes were used to independently predict the prognosis of UCEC and construct the prognosis model and risk score. The analysis of the survival nomogram indicated that the model has excellent predictive ability and strong reliability for predicting the survival of patients with UCEC. The protein-protein interaction network analysis of key genes indicates that four genes play a pivotal role in interactions: GZMK, IL7, GIMAP, and UBD. The quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR), immunofluorescence, and immunohistochemistry (IHC) all confirmed the expression of the aforementioned genes and their correlation with immune cell levels. This further revealed that GZMK, IL7, GIMAP, and UBD could potentially serve as biomarkers associated with immune levels in endometrial cancer.ConclusionThe study identified genes related to immune response in UCEC, including GZMK, IL7, GIMAP, and UBD, which may serve as new biomarkers and therapeutic targets for evaluating immune levels in the future.

Analysis of methylation-driven genes for predicting the prognosis of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma.

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a highly aggressive malignancy that is characterized by early distant metastasis and poor prognosis. DNA methylation plays an important role in the etiology and pathogenesis of OSCC. This study aimed to identify methylation-driven genes through bioinformatics analysis as potential biomarkers for early diagnosis and prognostic assessment of OSCC. Methylation data, RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data and clinical prognosis information of OSCC patients were retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. The R packages MethylMix were employed to analyze the correlation between methylation status and corresponding gene expression in tumor and normal tissues to obtain methylation-driven genes. Univariate Cox regression analysis was developed to further screen methylation-driven genes associated with the prognosis of OSCC patients. Subsequently, multivariate Cox regression analysis was utilized to construct a linear prognostic risk prediction model. Furthermore, a combined survival analysis integrating methylation and gene expression was performed to investigate the prognostic value. A total of 374 differentially expressed methylation-driven genes were identified. Seven methylation-driven genes (BST2, KRT15, ZNF134, NT5E, GSTA7P, NAPRT, and GOLPH3L) were found to be significantly associated with patient prognosis. Additionally, four methylation-driven genes (BST2, KRT15, ZNF134 and NAPRT) were used to construct a linear prognostic risk prediction model for OSCC patients. Furthermore, a combined Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that three methylation-driven genes (ZKSCAN7, MFF, ZNF134) alone can be used as independent prognostic markers or drug targets. Our findings facilitate a better understanding of molecular mechanisms of OSCC and provide potential biomarkers of early diagnosis, precision treatment and prognosis evaluation.

Construction and Evaluation of a Prognostic Risk Prediction Model of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Based on Immune-Related Genes

Objective To construct a risk prediction model by integrating the molecular subtypes of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and immune-related genes.Methods With GSE71729 data set (n=145) as the training set,the differentially expressed genes and differential immune-related genes between the squamous and non-squamous subtypes of PDAC were integrated to construct a regulatory network,on the basis of which five immune marker genes regulating the squamous subtype were screened out.An integrated immune score (IIS) model was constructed based on patient survival information and immune marker genes to predict the clinical prognosis of PDAC patients,and its predictive performance was tested with 5 validation sets (n=758).Results PDAC patients were assigned into high risk and low risk groups according to the IIS.In both training and validation sets,the overall survival of patients in the high risk group was shorter than that in the low risk group (both P<0.001).The multivariable Cox regression showed that IIS was an independent prognostic factor for PDAC (HR=2.16,95%CI=1.50-3.10,P<0.001).Conclusion IIS can be used for risk stratification of PDAC patients and may become a potential prognostic marker for PDAC.

Screening of Immune-related lncRNAs in Lung Adenocarcinoma and Establishing a Survival Prognostic Risk Prediction Model.

This study aimed to improve lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) prognosis prediction based on a signature of immune-related long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs). LUAD samples from the TCGA database were divided into the immunity_H group and the immunity_L group. Differentially expressed RNAs (DERs) between the two groups were identified. Optimized immune-related lncRNAs combination was obtained using LASSO Cox regression. A prognostic risk prediction (RS) model was built and further validated in the training and validation datasets. A network among lncRNAs in the RS model, their co-expressed DERs, and the related KEGG pathways were established. Critical lncRNAs were validated in LUAD tissue samples. In total, 255 DERs were obtained, and 11 immune-related lncRNAs were significantly related to prognosis. Six lncRNAs were demonstrated as an optimal combination for building the RS model, including LINC00944, LINC00930, LINC00607, LINC00582, LINC00543, and LINC00319. The KM curve and ROC curve revealed the RS model to be a reliable indicator for LUAD prognosis. LINC00944 and LINC00582 showed a co-expression relationship with the MS4A1. LINC00944, LINC00582, and MS4A1 were successfully validated in LUAD samples. We have established a promising LUAD patient survival prediction model based on six immune-related lncRNAs. For LUAD patients, this prognostic model could guide personalized treatment.

Construction of a Prognostic Risk Prediction Model Based on m6A-Associated Long Non-Coding RNAs in Cholangiocarcinoma

Construction of a Prognostic Risk Prediction Model Based on m6A-Associated Long Non-Coding RNAs in Cholangiocarcinoma

Identification of methylation driver genes for predicting the prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients based on whole-genome DNA methylation sequencing technology

This study was based on the use of whole-genome DNA methylation sequencing technology to identify DNA methylation biomarkers in tumor tissue that can predict the prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer (PCa). TCGA database was used to download PCa-related DNA methylation and transcriptome atlas data. Methylation driver genes (MDGs) were obtained using the MethylMix package. Candidate genes in the MDGs were screened for prognostic relevance to PCa patients by univariate Cox analysis, and a prognostic risk score model was constructed based on the key MDGs. ROC curve analysis was performed to assess the accuracy of the prognostic risk score model. The effects of PIK3C2B knockdown on malignant phenotypes of PCa cells were investigated in vitro. A total of 2737 differentially expressed genes were identified, with 649 upregulated and 2088 downregulated, using 178 PCa samples and 171 normal samples. MethylMix was employed to identify 71 methylation-driven genes (47 hypermethylated and 24 hypomethylated) from 185 TCGA PCa samples. Cox regression analyses identified eight key MDGs (LEF1, ZIC3, VAV3, TBC1D4, FABP4, MAP3K5, PIK3C2B, IGF1R) associated with prognosis in PCa. Seven of them were hypermethylated, while PIK3C2B was hypomethylated. A prognostic risk prediction model was constructed based on the eight key MDGs, which was found to accurately predict the prognosis of PCa patients. In addition, the malignant phenotypes of PANC-1 cells were decreased after the knockdown of PIK3C2B. Therefore, the prognostic risk prediction model based on the eight key MDGs could accurately predict the prognosis of PCa patients.

Development and validation of prognostic nomographs for patients with cervical cancer: SEER-based Asian population study

To develop and validate a nomograph to predict the long-term survival probability of cervical cancer (CC) patients in Asia, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) were used to collect information about CC patients in Asia. The patient data were randomly sampled and divided into a training group and a validation group by 7:3. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen key indicators, and multivariate Cox regression model was used to establish a prognostic risk prediction model for CC patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were adopted to comprehensively evaluate the nomogram model. LASSO regression and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis showed that age, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Stage, AJCC T, tumor size, and surgery were independent risk factors for prognosis. The ROC curve results proved that the area under curve (AUC) values of the training group in 3 and 5 years were 0.837 and 0.818, The AUC values of the validation group in 3 and 5 years were 0.796 and 0.783. DCA showed that the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) nomograms had good clinical potential value. The nomogram model developed in this study can effectively predict the prognosis of Asian patients with CC, and the risk stratification system based on this nomogram prediction model has some clinical value for discriminating high-risk patients.

A prognostic risk prediction model based on ferroptosis-related long non-coding RNAs in bladder cancer: A bulk RNA-seq research and scRNA-seq validation: Erratum.

A prognostic risk prediction model based on ferroptosis-related long non-coding RNAs in bladder cancer: A bulk RNA-seq research and scRNA-seq validation: Erratum.

Prognostic risk models for incident hypertension: A PRISMA systematic review and meta-analysis.

Our goal was to review the available literature on prognostic risk prediction for incident hypertension, synthesize performance, and provide suggestions for future work on the topic. A systematic search on PUBMED and Web of Science databases was conducted for studies on prognostic risk prediction models for incident hypertension in generally healthy individuals. Study-quality was assessed using the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) checklist. Three-level meta-analyses were used to obtain pooled AUC/C-statistic estimates. Heterogeneity was explored using study and cohort characteristics in meta-regressions. From 5090 hits, we found 53 eligible studies, and included 47 in meta-analyses. Only four studies were assessed to have results with low risk of bias. Few models had been externally validated, with only the Framingham risk model validated more than thrice. The pooled AUC/C-statistics were 0.82 (0.77-0.86) for machine learning models and 0.78 (0.76-0.80) for traditional models, with high heterogeneity in both groups (I2 > 99%). Intra-class correlations within studies were 60% and 90%, respectively. Follow-up time (P = 0.0405) was significant for ML models and age (P = 0.0271) for traditional models in explaining heterogeneity. Validations of the Framingham risk model had high heterogeneity (I2 > 99%). Overall, the quality of included studies was assessed as poor. AUC/C-statistic were mostly acceptable or good, and higher for ML models than traditional models. High heterogeneity implies large variability in the performance of new risk models. Further, large heterogeneity in validations of the Framingham risk model indicate variability in model performance on new populations. To enable researchers to assess hypertension risk models, we encourage adherence to existing guidelines for reporting and developing risk models, specifically reporting appropriate performance measures. Further, we recommend a stronger focus on validation of models by considering reasonable baseline models and performing external validations of existing models. Hence, developed risk models must be made available for external researchers.

Establishment of a prognostic risk prediction model incorporating disulfidptosis-related lncRNA for patients with prostate cancer

PurposeProstate cancer (PCa) is one of the major tumor diseases that threaten men’s health globally, and biochemical recurrence significantly impacts its prognosis. Disulfidptosis, a recently discovered cell death mechanism triggered by intracellular disulfide accumulation leading to membrane rupture, is a new area of research in the context of PCa. Currently, its impact on PCa remains largely unexplored. This study aims to investigate the correlation between long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) associated with disulfidptosis and the prognosis of PCa, seeking potential connections between the two.MethodsTranscriptomic data for a PCa cohort were obtained from the Cancer Genome Atlas database. Disulfidptosis-related lncRNAs (DDRLs) were identified through differential expression and Pearson correlation analysis. DDRLs associated with biochemical recurrence-free survival (BRFS) were precisely identified using univariate Cox and LASSO regression, resulting in the development of a risk score model. Clinical factors linked to BRFS were determined through both univariate and multivariate Cox analyses. A prognostic nomogram combined the risk score with key clinical variables. Model performance was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, Decision Curve Analysis (DCA), and calibration curves. The functional impact of a critical DDRL was substantiated through assays involving CCK8, invasion, migration, and cell cloning. Additionally, immunohistochemical (IHC) staining for the disulfidptosis-related protein SLC7A11 was conducted.ResultsThe prognostic signature included AC026401.3, SNHG4, SNHG25, and U73166.1 as key components. The derived risk score from these signatures stood as one of the independent prognostic factor for PCa patients, correlating with poorer BRFS in the high-risk group. By combining the risk score with clinical variables, a practical nomogram was created, accurately predicting BRFS of PCa patients. Notably, silencing AC026401.3 significantly hindered PCa cell proliferation, invasion, migration, and colony formation. IHC staining revealed elevated expression of the dithiosulfatide-related protein SLC7A11 in tumor tissue.ConclusionsA novel prognostic signature for PCa DDRLs, possessing commendable predictive power, has been constructed, simultaneously providing potential therapeutic targets associated with disulfidptosis, among which AC026401.3 has been validated in vitro and demonstrated inhibition of PCa tumorigenesis after its silencing.

A three-gene signature reveals changes in the tumor immune microenvironment in the progression from NAFLD to HCC

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most dangerous malignant tumors. The incidence rates of obesity related NAFLD and NASH are increasing year by year, and they are the main risk factors for HCC at present. Finding the mechanism of malignant transformation of NAFLD and NASH is helpful for early prevention and diagnosis. In this study, we performed differential analysis using NAFLD data, NASH data, and HCC data to identify crossover differential genes. Then, using the clinical data of TCGA, a prognostic risk prediction model of three genes (TEAD4, SOCS2, CIT) was constructed, and survival analysis and receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn. The prognostic model was validated using ICGC, GSE116174 and GSE54236 datasets. In addition, we assessed immune status and function in high- and low-risk populations using a prognostic model. Moreover, we assessed the expression of CIT in clinical samples and HCC cell lines and validated its role in HCC development. Our study elucidates the important role of the tumor immune microenvironment in the development of NAFLD/NASH to HCC, deepens the understanding of the pathogenesis of NAFLD/NASH development to HCC, and is helpful for clinical management and decision-making.

Construction of a ferroptosis-based prognostic model for breast cancer helps to discriminate high/low risk groups and treatment priority.

Breast cancer is a common malignant tumor associated with high morbidity and mortality. The role of ferroptosis, a regulated form of cell death, in breast cancer development and prognosis remains unclear. This study aims to investigate the relationship between ferroptosis-related genes and breast cancer and develop a prognostic model. RNA-seq expression datasets and clinical samples of breast cancer patients were obtained from public databases. Immunity- and drug resistance-related data were integrated. A preliminary screening was performed, resulting in the identification of 73 candidate ferroptosis factors. Univariate Cox regression analysis was conducted to select 12 genes, followed by LASSO Cox regression analysis to construct a prognostic risk prediction model consisting of 10 ferroptosis-related genes. The model was further characterized by immune cell infiltration. The expression levels of ferroptosis-related genes were validated in human breast cancer cell lines, and immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis was conducted on cancer specimens to assess ferroptosis-related protein expression. The study identified 10 ferroptosis-related genes that were significantly associated with breast cancer prognosis. The constructed prognostic risk prediction model showed potential for predicting the prognostic value of these genes. In addition, the infiltration of immune cells was observed to be a characteristic of the model. The expression levels of ferroptosis-related genes were confirmed in human breast cancer cell lines, and IHC analysis provided evidence of ferroptosis-related protein expression in cancer specimens. This study provides a novel prognostic model for breast cancer, incorporating 10 ferroptosis-related genes. The model demonstrates the potential for predicting breast cancer prognosis and highlights the involvement of immune cell infiltration. The expression levels of ferroptosis-related genes and proteins further support the association between ferroptosis and breast cancer development.

Algorithmic fairness in cardiovascular disease risk prediction: overcoming inequalities

The main purpose of prognostic risk prediction models is to identify individuals who are at risk of disease, to enable early intervention. Current prognostic cardiovascular risk prediction models, such as...

Integrating bulk and single-cell data to predict the prognosis and identify the immune landscape in HNSCC.

The complex interplay between tumour cells and the tumour microenvironment (TME) underscores the necessity for gaining comprehensive insights into disease progression. This study centres on elucidating the elusive the elusive role of endothelial cells within the TME of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Despite their crucial involvement in angiogenesis and vascular function, the mechanistic diversity of endothelial cells among HNSCC patients remains largely uncharted. Leveraging advanced single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-Seq) technology and the Scissor algorithm, we aimed to bridge this knowledge gap and illuminate the intricate interplay between endothelial cells and patient prognosis within the context of HNSCC. Here, endothelial cells were categorized into Scissorhigh and Scissorlow subtypes. We identified Scissor+ endothelial cells exhibiting pro-tumorigenic profiles and constructed a prognostic risk model for HNSCC. Additionally, four biomarkers also were identified by analysing the gene expression profiles of patients with HNSCC and a prognostic risk prediction model was constructed based on these genes. Furthermore, the correlations between endothelial cells and prognosis of patients with HNSCC were analysed by integrating bulk and single-cell sequencing data, revealing a close association between SHSS and the overall survival (OS) of HNSCC patients with malignant endothelial cells. Finally, we validated the prognostic model by RT-qPCR and IHC analysis. These findings enhance our comprehension of TME heterogeneity at the single-cell level and provide a prognostic model for HNSCC.

Development and validation of prognostic risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of 47 cohorts.

To identify the risk factors associated with prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) via meta-analysis. And to construct prediction models to aid in the prediction and improvement of prognosis. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library for relevant studies from inception to March 29, 2023. After completing literature screening and data extraction, we performed meta-analysis, sensitivity analysis, and subgroup analysis to identify risk factors associated with OS and PFS. Using the pooled hazard ratio value for each risk factor, we constructed prediction models, which were then validated using datasets from 19 centers in Japan and two centers in China, comprising a total of 204 patients. A total of 47 studies, involving a total of 7649 ICI-treated HCC patients, were included in the meta-analysis. After analyzing 18 risk factors, we identified AFP, ALBI, NLR, ECOG performance status, Child-Pugh stage, BCLC stage, tumor number, vascular invasion and combination therapy as predictors for OS prediction model, while AFP, ALBI, NLR, ECOG performance status, Child-Pugh stage, BCLC stage, tumor number and vascular invasion were selected as predictors for PFS model. To validate the models, we scored two independent cohorts of patients using both prediction models. Our models demonstrated good performance in these cohorts. In addition, in the pooled cohort of 204 patients, Our models also showed good performance with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.712, 0.753, and 0.822 for the OS prediction model at 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year follow-up points, respectively, and AUC values of 0.575, 0.749 and 0.691 for the PFS prediction model Additionally, the calibration curve, decision curve analysis, and Kaplan-Meier curves in the pooled cohort all supported the validity of both models. Based on the meta-analysis, we successfully constructed the OS and PFS prediction models for ICI-treated HCC patients. We also validated the models externally and observed good discrimination and calibration. The model's selected indicators are easily obtainable, making them suitable for further application in clinical practice.

Construction and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Prediction Model for Lactate Metabolism-Related lncRNA in Endometrial Cancer.

Endometrial cancer (EC) is a common group of malignant epithelial tumors that mainly occur in the female endometrium. Lactate is a key regulator of signal pathways in normal and malignant tissues. However, there is still no research on lactate metabolism-related lncRNA in EC. Here, we intended to establish a prognostic risk model for EC based on lactate metabolism-related lncRNA to forecast the prognosis of EC patients. First, we found that 38 lactate metabolism-associated lncRNAs were significantly overall survival through univariate Cox regression analysis. Using minimum absolute contraction and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and multivariate Cox regression analysis, six lactate metabolism-related lncRNAs were established as independent predictor in EC patients and were used to establish a prognostic risk signature. We next used multifactorial COX regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to confirm that risk score was an independent prognostic factor of overall patient survival. The survival time of patients with EC in different high-risk populations was obviously related to clinicopathological factors. In addition, lactate metabolism-related lncRNA in high-risk population participated in multiple aspects of EC malignant progress through Gene Set Enrichment Analysis, Genomes pathway and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Gene Ontology. And risk scores were strongly associated with tumor mutation burden, immunotherapy response and microsatellite instability. Finally, we chose a lncRNA SRP14-AS1 to validate the model we have constructed. Interestingly, we observed that the expression degree of SRP14-AS1 was lower in tumor tissues of EC patients than in normal tissues, which was consistent with our findings in the TCGA database. In conclusion, our study constructed a prognostic risk model through lactate metabolism-related lncRNA and validated the model, confirming that the model can be used to predict the prognosis of EC patients and providing a molecular analysis of potential prognostic lncRNA for EC.

Machine learning-assisted analysis of epithelial mesenchymal transition pathway for prognostic stratification and immune infiltration assessment in ovarian cancer.

Ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynaecological malignancy, and serous ovarian cancer (SOC) is one of the more important pathological subtypes. Previous studies have reported a significant association of epithelial tomesenchymal transition (EMT) with invasive metastasis and immune modulation of SOC, however, there is a lack of prognostic and immune infiltration biomarkers reported for SOC based on EMT. Gene expression data for ovarian cancer and corresponding patient clinical data were collected from the TCGA database and the GEO database, and cell type annotation and spatial expression analysis were performed on single cell sequencing data from the GEO database. To understand the cell type distribution of EMT-related genes in SOC single-cell data and the enrichment relationships of biological pathways and tumour functions. In addition, GO functional annotation analysis and KEGG pathway enrichment analysis were performed on mRNAs predominantly expressed with EMT to predict the biological function of EMT in ovarian cancer. The major differential genes of EMT were screened to construct a prognostic risk prediction model for SOC patients. Data from 173 SOC patient samples obtained from the GSE53963 database were used to validate the prognostic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer. Here we also analysed the direct association between SOC immune infiltration and immune cell modulation and EMT risk score. and calculate drug sensitivity scores in the GDSC database.In addition, we assessed the specific relationship between GAS1 gene and SOC cell lines. Single cell transcriptome analysis in the GEO database annotated the major cell types of SOC samples, including: T cell, Myeloid, Epithelial cell, Fibroblast, Endothelial cell, and Bcell. cellchat revealed several cell type interactions that were shown to be associated with EMT-mediated SOC invasion and metastasis. A prognostic stratification model for SOC was constructed based on EMT-related differential genes, and the Kapan-Meier test showed that this biomarker had significant prognostic stratification value for several independent SOC databases. The EMT risk score has good stratification and identification properties for drug sensitivity in the GDSC database. This study constructed a prognostic stratification biomarker based on EMT-related risk genes for immune infiltration mechanisms and drug sensitivity analysis studies in SOC. This lays the foundation for in-depth clinical studies on the role of EMT in immune regulation and related pathway alterations in SOC. It is also hoped to provide effective potential solutions for early diagnosis and clinical treatment of ovarian cancer.

Prediction of cardiovascular adverse events in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma: Development and validation of a risk score prognostic model.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is the second most common hematological malignancy, and the treatments markedly elevate the survival rate of the patients in recent years. However, the prevalence of cardiovascular adverse events (CVAEs) in MM had been increasing recently. CVAEs in MM patients are an important problem that we should focus on. Clinical tools for prognostication and risk-stratification are needed. This is a retrospective study that included patients who were newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma (NDMM) in Shanghai Changzheng Hospital and Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine from June 2018 to July 2020.A total of 253 patients from two medical centers were divided into training cohort and validation cohort randomly. Univariable analysis of the baseline factors was performed using CVAEs endpoints. Multivariable analysis identified three factors for a prognostic model that was validated in internal validation cohorts. Factors independently associated with CVAEs in NDMM were as follows: age>61 years old, high level of baseline office blood pressure, and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). Age contributed 2 points, and the other two factors contributed 1 point to a prognostic model. The model distinguished the patients into three groups: 3-4 points, high risk; 2 points, intermediate risk; 0-1 point, low risk. These groups had significant difference in CVAEs during follow-up days in both training cohort (p<0.0001) and validation cohort (p=0.0018). In addition, the model had good calibration. The C-indexes for the prediction of overall survival of CVAEs in the training and validation cohorts were 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67-0.79) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.51-0.81), respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs) of the 1-year CVAEs probability in the training and validation cohorts were 0.738 and 0.673, respectively. The AUROCs of the 2-year CVAE probability in the training and validation cohorts were 0.722 and 0.742, respectively. The decision-curve analysis indicated that the prediction model provided greater net benefit than the default strategies of providing assessment or not providing assessment for all patients. A prognostic risk prediction model for predicting CVAEs risk of NDMM patients was developed and internally validated. Patients at increased risk of CVAEs can be identified at treatment initiation and be more focused on cardiovascular protection in the treatment plan.

Prediction of major postoperative events after non-cardiac surgery for people with kidney failure: derivation and internal validation of risk models

BackgroundPeople with kidney failure often require surgery and experience worse postoperative outcomes compared to the general population, but existing risk prediction tools have excluded those with kidney failure during development or exhibit poor performance. Our objective was to derive, internally validate, and estimate the clinical utility of risk prediction models for people with kidney failure undergoing non-cardiac surgery.Design, setting, participants, and measuresThis study involved derivation and internal validation of prognostic risk prediction models using a retrospective, population-based cohort. We identified adults from Alberta, Canada with pre-existing kidney failure (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] < 15 mL/min/1.73m2 or receipt of maintenance dialysis) undergoing non-cardiac surgery between 2005–2019. Three nested prognostic risk prediction models were assembled using clinical and logistical rationale. Model 1 included age, sex, dialysis modality, surgery type and setting. Model 2 added comorbidities, and Model 3 added preoperative hemoglobin and albumin. Death or major cardiac events (acute myocardial infarction or nonfatal ventricular arrhythmia) within 30 days after surgery were modelled using logistic regression models.ResultsThe development cohort included 38,541 surgeries, with 1,204 outcomes (after 3.1% of surgeries); 61% were performed in males, the median age was 64 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 53, 73), and 61% were receiving hemodialysis at the time of surgery. All three internally validated models performed well, with c-statistics ranging from 0.783 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.770, 0.797) for Model 1 to 0.818 (95%CI: 0.803, 0.826) for Model 3. Calibration slopes and intercepts were excellent for all models, though Models 2 and 3 demonstrated improvement in net reclassification. Decision curve analysis estimated that use of any model to guide perioperative interventions such as cardiac monitoring would result in potential net benefit over default strategies.ConclusionsWe developed and internally validated three novel models to predict major clinical events for people with kidney failure having surgery. Models including comorbidities and laboratory variables showed improved accuracy of risk stratification and provided the greatest potential net benefit for guiding perioperative decisions. Once externally validated, these models may inform perioperative shared decision making and risk-guided strategies for this population.