Processed-based Model Research Articles

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and vegetation structural changes contributed to gross primary productivity increase more than climate and forest cover changes in subtropical forests of China

Abstract. The subtropical forests of China play a pivotal role in the global carbon cycle and in regulating the global climate. Quantifying the individual and combined effects of forest cover change (FCC), vegetation structural change (e.g. leaf area index (LAI)), CO2 fertilisation, and climate change (CC) on the annual gross primary productivity (GPP) dynamics of different subtropical forest types are essential for mitigating carbon emissions and predicting future climate changes, but these impacts remain unclear. In this study, we used a processed-based model to comprehensively investigate the impacts of these factors on GPP variations with a series of model experiments in China's subtropical forests from 2001 to 2018. Simulated GPP showed a significant increasing trend (20.67 gCm-2yr-1, p<0.001) under the interaction effects of FCC, LAI change, rising CO2, and CC. The CO2 fertilisation (6.84 gCm-2yr-1, p<0.001) and LAI change (3.79 gCm-2yr-1, p=0.004) were the two dominant drivers of total subtropical forest GPP increase, followed by the effects of FCC (0.52 gCm-2yr-1, p<0.001) and CC (0.92 gCm-2yr-1, p=0.080). We observed different responses to drivers depending on forest types. The evergreen broad-leaved forests showed the maximum carbon sequestration rate due to the positive effects of all drivers. Both the FCC (0.19 gCm-2yr-1, p<0.05) and CC (1.22 gCm-2yr-1, p<0.05) significantly decreased evergreen needle-leaved forest GPP, while their negative effects were almost offset by the positive impact of LAI changes. Our results indicated that LAI outweighed FCC in promoting GPP, which is an essential driver that needs to be accounted for in studies and ecological and management programmes. Overall, our study offers a novel perspective on different drivers of subtropical forest GPP changes and provides valuable information for policy makers to better manage subtropical forests to mitigate climate change risks.

LandBench 1.0: A benchmark dataset and evaluation metrics for data-driven land surface variables prediction

The advancements in deep learning methods have presented new opportunities and challenges for predicting land surface variables (LSVs) due to their similarity with computer sciences tasks. However, few researchers focus on the benchmark datasets for LSVs predictions that hampers fair comparisons of different data-driven deep learning models. Hence, we propose a LSVs benchmark dataset and prediction toolbox to boost research in data-driven LSVs modeling and improve the consistency of data-driven deep learning models for LSVs. LSVs benchmark dataset contains a large number of hydrology-related variables, such as global soil moisture, runoff, etc., which can verify the simulation of hydrological processes. Various global data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 (ERA5), ERA5-land, global gridded soil information (SoilGrid), soil moisture storage capacity (SMSC), and moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets have been pre-processed into daily data at 0.5-, 1-, 2-, and 4-degree resolutions to facilitate their use in data-driven models. Simple statistical metrics, i.e., the root mean squared error and correlation coefficient, are chosen to evaluate the performance of different deep learning (DL) models, including convolutional neural network, long short-term memory and convolution long short-term memory models, with lead times of 1 and 5 days. A processed-based model serves as a physic baseline, soil moisture and surface sensible heat fluxes are taken as the target variables. The developed benchmark dataset and evaluation metrics for predicting LSVs using data-driven approaches, named as the LandBench toolbox, were implemented using Pytorch. This toolbox facilitates the reimplementation of existing methods, the development of novel predictive models, and the utilization of unified evaluation metrics. Additionally, the toolbox incorporates address mapping technology to enable high-resolution global predictions with constrained computing resources. We hope LandBench will not only serves as a standardized framework, fostering equitable model comparisons, but also provides indispensable data and a robust scientific foundation essential for advancing climate change research, disaster management, and sustainable development initiatives.

AirGRteaching: an open-source tool for teaching hydrological modeling with R

Abstract. Hydrological modeling is at the core of most studies related to water, especially for anticipating disasters, managing water resources, and planning adaptation strategies. Consequently, teaching hydrological modeling is an important, but difficult, matter. Teaching hydrological modeling requires appropriate software and teaching material (exercises, projects); however, although many hydrological modeling tools exist today, only a few are adapted to teaching purposes. In this article, we present the airGRteaching package, which is an open-source R package. The hydrological models that can be used in airGRteaching are the GR rainfall-runoff models, i.e., lumped processed-based models, allowing streamflows to be simulated, including the GR4J model. In this package, thanks to a graphical user interface and a limited number of functions, numerous hydrological modeling exercises representing a wide range of hydrological applications are proposed. To ease its use by students and teachers, the package contains several vignettes describing complete projects that can be proposed to investigate various topics such as streamflow reconstruction, hydrological forecasting, and assessment of climate change impact.

Modeling Historical and Future Forest Fires in South Korea: The FLAM Optimization Approach

Climate change-induced heat waves increase the global risk of forest fires, intensifying biomass burning and accelerating climate change in a vicious cycle. This presents a challenge to the response system in heavily forested South Korea, increasing the risk of more frequent and large-scale fire outbreaks. This study aims to optimize IIASA’s wildFire cLimate impacts and Adaptation Model (FLAM)—a processed-based model integrating biophysical and human impacts—to South Korea for projecting the pattern and scale of future forest fires. The developments performed in this study include: (1) the optimization of probability algorithms in FLAM based on the national GIS data downscaled to 1 km2 with additional factors introduced for national specific modeling; (2) the improvement of soil moisture computation by adjusting the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) to represent vegetation feedbacks by fitting soil moisture to daily remote sensing data; and (3) projection of future forest fire frequency and burned area. Our results show that optimization has considerably improved the modeling of seasonal patterns of forest fire frequency. Pearson’s correlation coefficient between monthly predictions and observations from national statistics over 2016–2022 was improved from 0.171 in the non-optimized to 0.893 in the optimized FLAM. These findings imply that FLAM’s main algorithms for interpreting biophysical and human impacts on forest fire at a global scale are only applicable to South Korea after the optimization of all modules, and climate change is the main driver of the recent increases in forest fires. Projections for forest fire were produced for four periods until 2100 based on the forest management plan, which included three management scenarios (current, ideal, and overprotection). Ideal management led to a reduction of 60–70% of both fire frequency and burned area compared to the overprotection scenario. This study should be followed by research for developing adaptation strategies corresponding to the projected risks of future forest fires.

Hyposensitive canopy conductance renders ecosystems vulnerable to meteorological droughts.

Increased meteorological drought intensity with rising atmospheric demand for water (hereafter vapor pressure deficit [VPD]) increases the risk of tree mortality and ecosystem dysfunction worldwide. Ecosystem-scale water-use strategy is increasingly recognized as a key factor in regulating drought-related ecosystem responses. However, the link between water-use strategy and ecosystem vulnerability to meteorological droughts is poorly established. Using the global flux observations, historic hydroclimatic data, remote-sensing products, and plant functional-trait archive, we identified potentially vulnerable ecosystems, examining how ecosystem water-use strategy, quantified by the percentage bias (δ) of the empirical canopy conductance sensitivity to VPD relative to the theoretical value, mediated ecosystem responses to droughts. We found that prevailing soil water availability substantially impacted δ in dryland regions where ecosystems with insufficient soil moisture usually showed conservative water-use strategy, while ecosystems in humid regions exhibited more pronounced climatic adaptability. Hyposensitive and hypersensitive ecosystems, classified based on δ falling below or above the theoretical sensitivity, respectively, achieved similar net ecosystem productivity during droughts, employing different structural and functional strategies. However, hyposensitive ecosystems, risking their hydraulic system with a permissive water-use strategy, were unable to recover from droughts as quickly as hypersensitive ones. Our findings highlight that processed-based models predicting current functions and future performance of vegetation should account for the greater vulnerability of hyposensitive ecosystems to intensifying atmospheric and soil droughts.

The transfer of heritage modelling from research to practice

Heritage science is an inherently practice-oriented field that aims to support our understanding, and conservation, of heritage. Research is commonly undertaken using laboratory or field-based methodologies, but given the ethical and scale constraints, over time and space, of these approaches, process-based models should provide a tool for exploring practical solutions. Unlike other fields, such as climate science and ecology, there appears limited engagement with modelling within heritage science. The characteristics and use of processed-based models published in the field is examined to explore tensions in using models to transfer understanding between research and practice. By examining models that investigate interactions between heritage materials and environment, we find that, at best, model outputs may be used by other researchers or occasionally by heritage institutions; or more commonly, the model’s existence is used as a justification of research, yet without meaningful engagement within either the academic and heritage practitioner communities. Some models are unlikely to be used in practice as they have been developed at spatial or temporal scales incompatible with being truly applicable to objects or sites, or can seem to advance theory without engaging with practice. The uptake of models by researchers who rerun or change the code is rare. Models that seem to gain substantial use appear to benefit from graphical user interfaces that make them easy to run. Evidence of models in solving real-world conservation problems is hard to find. This may arise because practical applications are rarely reported in academic journal literature and open access publications. There is some evidence they are revealed in conferences and possibly internal heritage organisation reports, but this gray literature doesn’t readily feedback into the development and refinement of existing models. It is likely the use of models would increase if mechanisms were available to support the development of user interfaces, training workshops and the ability of practical use cases to be fed back to the modelling community.

Tracking the seasonal and inter-annual variations of global gross primary production during last four decades using satellite near-infrared reflectance data

Terrestrial vegetation absorbs approximately 30% of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted into the atmosphere through photosynthesis (represented by gross primary productivity, GPP) and thus effectively mitigates global warming. However, large uncertainties still remain in the global GPP estimations and their long-term trends. Here we used the satellite-based near-infrared reflectance (NIRv) as the proxy of GPP and generated a global long-term (1982–2018) GPP datasets (hereafter GPPNIRv). Analysis at the site-level showed that NIRv could accurately capture both the monthly and annual variations in GPP (R2 = 0.71 and 0.74 respectively) at 104 flux sites. Upscaling the relationships between NIRv and GPP to the global scale, the global annual GPP was estimated to be 128.3 ± 4.0 Pg C yr−1 during the last four decades, which fell between the estimations from the machine-learning upscaling approach, light-use-efficiency (LUE) models and processed-based models. The seasonal variation of GPPNIRv was also consistent with those from flux sites and models. More importantly, the inter-annual trends in GPPNIRv during the last four decades were consistent with those from processed-based models across latitudes, which outperformed the other GPP products. This evidence suggested that the long-term GPP datasets derived from NIRv have better abilities to capture the seasonal and inter-annual variations of terrestrial GPP at the global scale. The long-term GPPNIRv product could be beneficial for the estimation of terrestrial carbon fluxes and for the projection of future climates.

Projecting spatiotemporally explicit effects of climate change on stream temperature: A model comparison and implications for coldwater fishes

Conservation planners and resource managers seek information about how the availability and locations of cold-water habitats will change in the future and how these predictions vary among models. We used a physical process-based model to demonstrate the implications of climate change for streamflow and water temperature in two watersheds with distinctive flow regimes: the Snoqualmie watershed (WA) and Siletz watershed (OR), USA. Our model incorporated a downscaled ensemble of global climate model outputs and was calibrated with in situ and remotely sensed water temperatures. We compared predictions from our processed-based model to those from a publicly available and widely used statistical model. The process-based model projected greater changes in summer maximum water temperatures for the mixed-rain-snow Snoqualmie watershed than for the rain-dominated Siletz watershed as a result of the near-complete loss of winter snowpack and significant reduction in summer flow in the Snoqualmie watershed expected by the 2080s. Both models projected generally similar future spatial patterns of maximum water temperature in the two rivers, with cool reaches distributed farther upstream and fewer in number. However, the process-based model projected higher spatial heterogeneity in water temperature due to our spatially explicit simulation of streamflow and because we calibrated the model with spatially continuous remotely sensed water temperature data. We used stream temperature projections to assess the vulnerability of Pacific salmon and trout to changes in the spatial distribution of cold-water habitats during August by the 2080 s. Results suggest that salmonids may have fewer summertime cold-water habitats in both watersheds. Projected stream warming may further limit particular species and life stages, especially in the Snoqualmie watershed. Our comparison of models highlights the importance of considering what might be gained by using a process-based model for evaluating and prioritizing management actions that mitigate climate impacts on cold-water habitats for stream fishes.

Aggregation of Gridded Emulated Rainfed Crop Yield Projections at the National or Regional Level

To estimate the impact of climate change on yields, researchers traditionally use process-based models or statistical models. To benefit from the capabilities of processed-based models while preserving the application simplicity of statistical models, Blanc and Sultan (2015) and Blanc (2017) provide an ensemble of statistical tools emulating crops yields from global gridded crop models at the grid cell level using a simple set of environmental variables. This paper and companion code provide a tool for researcher to use those statistical emulators and estimate crop yields of rainfed maize, rice, soybean and wheat at the regional level. Crop yields estimates for various regional delineations can them simply be used as input into a variety of numerical equilibrium models and other analyses.

The Evolving Science of Phosphorus Site Assessment

The Evolving Science of Phosphorus Site Assessment

Stable atmospheric methane in the 2000s: key-role of emissions from natural wetlands

Abstract. Two atmospheric inversions (one fine-resolved and one process-discriminating) and a process-based model for land surface exchanges are brought together to analyse the variations of methane emissions from 1990 to 2009. A focus is put on the role of natural wetlands and on the years 2000–2006, a period of stable atmospheric concentrations. From 1990 to 2000, the top-down and bottom-up visions agree on the time-phasing of global total and wetland emission anomalies. The process-discriminating inversion indicates that wetlands dominate the time-variability of methane emissions (90% of the total variability). The contribution of tropical wetlands to the anomalies is found to be large, especially during the post-Pinatubo years (global negative anomalies with minima between −41 and −19 Tg yr−1 in 1992) and during the alternate 1997–1998 El-Niño/1998–1999 La-Niña (maximal anomalies in tropical regions between +16 and +22 Tg yr−1 for the inversions and anomalies due to tropical wetlands between +12 and +17 Tg yr−1 for the process-based model). Between 2000 and 2006, during the stagnation of methane concentrations in the atmosphere, the top-down and bottom-up approaches agree on the fact that South America is the main region contributing to anomalies in natural wetland emissions, but they disagree on the sign and magnitude of the flux trend in the Amazon basin. A negative trend (−3.9 ± 1.3 Tg yr−1) is inferred by the process-discriminating inversion whereas a positive trend (+1.3 ± 0.3 Tg yr−1) is found by the process model. Although processed-based models have their own caveats and may not take into account all processes, the positive trend found by the B-U approach is considered more likely because it is a robust feature of the process-based model, consistent with analysed precipitations and the satellite-derived extent of inundated areas. On the contrary, the surface-data based inversions lack constraints for South America. This result suggests the need for a re-interpretation of the large increase found in anthropogenic methane inventories after 2000.

Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches

BackgroundThe world is facing an increased threat from new and emerging diseases, and there is concern that climate change will expand areas suitable for transmission of vector borne diseases. The likelihood of vivax malaria returning to the UK was explored using two markedly different modelling approaches. First, a simple temperature-dependent, process-based model of malaria growth transmitted by Anopheles atroparvus, the historical vector of malaria in the UK. Second, a statistical model using logistic-regression was used to predict historical malaria incidence between 1917 and 1918 in the UK, based on environmental and demographic data. Using findings from these models and saltmarsh distributions, future risk maps for malaria in the UK were produced based on UKCIP02 climate change scenarios.ResultsThe process-based model of climate suitability showed good correspondence with historical records of malaria cases. An analysis of the statistical models showed that mean temperature of the warmest month of the year was the major factor explaining the distribution of malaria, further supporting the use of the temperature-driven processed-based model. The risk maps indicate that large areas of central and southern England could support malaria transmission today and could increase in extent in the future. Confidence in these predictions is increased by the concordance between the processed-based and statistical models.ConclusionAlthough the future climate in the UK is favourable for the transmission of vivax malaria, the future risk of locally transmitted malaria is considered low because of low vector biting rates and the low probability of vectors feeding on a malaria-infected person.