Population Growth Processes Research Articles

Modelling and Mapping Rapid-Onset Coastal Flooding: A Systematic Literature Review

Increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme flood events are among the most impactful consequences of climate change. Coastal areas can potentially be affected by interactions among different flood drivers at the interface of terrestrial and marine ecosystems. At the same time, socio-economic processes of population growth and urbanization can lead to increases in local vulnerability to climate extremes in coastal areas. Within this context, research focusing on modelling and mapping rapid-onset coastal flooding is essential (a) to support flood risk management, (b) to design local climate adaptation policies and (c) to increase climate resilience of coastal communities. This systematic literature review delineates the state-of-the art of research on rapid-onset coastal flooding. It provides a comprehensive picture of the broad range of methodologies utilised to model flooding and highlights the commonly identified issues, both from a scientific standpoint and in terms of the policy implications of translating research outputs into actionable information. As flood maps represent fundamental instruments in the communication of research outcomes to support decision making and increase climate resilience, a focus on the spatial representation of coastal floods proposed in the literature is adopted in this review.

Ages, sizes and (trees within) trees of taxa and of urns, from Yule to today.

The paper written in 1925 by G. Udny Yule that we celebrate in this special issue introduces several novelties and results that we recall in detail. First, we discuss Yule's (1925)main legacies over the past century, focusing on empirical frequency distributions with heavy tails and random tree models for phylogenies. We estimate the year when Yule's work was re-discovered by scientists interested in stochastic processes of population growth (1948) and the year from which it began to be cited (1951, Yule's death). We highlight overlooked aspects of Yule's work (e.g. the Yule process of Yule processes) and correct some common misattributions (e.g. the Yule tree). Second, we generalize Yule's results on the average frequency of genera of a given age and size (number of species). We show that his formula also applies to the age [Formula: see text] and size [Formula: see text] of any randomly chosen genus and that the pairs [Formula: see text] are equally distributed and independent across genera. This property extends to triples [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] are the coalescence times of the genus phylogeny, even when species diversification within genera follows any integer-valued process, including species extinctions. Studying [Formula: see text] in this broader context allows us to identify cases where [Formula: see text] has a power-law tail distribution, with new applications to urn schemes.This article is part of the theme issue '"A mathematical theory of evolution": phylogenetic models dating back 100 years'.

Transport network infrastructure in the context of population changes in five EU states (1960–2020)

Changes in accessibility that took place in Western Europe, and then also in Central and Eastern Europe, in recent decades were associated, on the one hand, with the processes of intensively expanding transport infrastructure networks, and, on the other hand, with demographic changes. Transport policy in some countries was based on a strategy of sustainable growth, where the development of infrastructure, both at the national and regional level, progressed in parallel with changes in the settlement structure. However, in other countries or regions it acted reactively, following the processes of population growth and concentration, or proactively, i.e. anticipating these changes. Both reactive and proactive policies are unsustainable, either in the national or in the regional sense. However, it is crucial to look at the aspect of unsustainable increase in accessibility in terms of the sequence of events, stages and policy prioritization decade by decade. The model of potential accessibility used for several countries at the same time allows to notice certain regularities related to the mutual impact of transport and spatial policy. The aim of the paper is to indicate effects of spatial and transport policies in the context of population changes, infrastructural changes and, in general, changes in potential accessibility, decade by decade (1961–2021) from the point of view of spatial policy objectives for five European countries.

An Uncertain Water-Energy Nexus: What Role for Hydropower, Desalination, Energy Positive Wastewater Treatment and Leakage Reduction on the Path to Net Zero?

This paper explores the water-energy nexus and its role in achieving global net-zero goals. These processes present both risks and opportunities in the global push for decarbonization. Water management is essential for human survival and economic stability. However, it faces challenges from climate change, population growth, and energy-intensive processes like desalination. By combining literature reviews, market research, and real-world examples, the paper provides practical strategies to decarbonize the water sector. The paper identifies key interdependencies, noting that water processes account for 4% of global electricity consumption, while energy production demands substantial water resources. Hydropower, a renewable energy source, supports decarbonization but poses ecological and social risks. The study explores the balance between hydropower benefits with environmental preservation, suggesting modernization of dams and integration of alternative renewables. Desalination, crucial in arid regions, is energy-intensive and generates environmental byproducts, necessitating more sustainable approaches. Case studies, such as Billund Biorefinery, illustrate innovative solutions like energy-positive wastewater treatment, which reduces emissions and supports circular economy principles. Additionally, addressing urban water leakage presents a $40 billion opportunity to conserve resources and minimize energy waste. The findings underscore the urgency of integrating renewable energy, enhancing efficiency, and adopting sustainable technologies to navigate the complex challenges of the water-energy nexus.

Empirical Analysis on the Mechanism of Industrial Park Driving Urban Expansion: A Case Study of Xining City

Taking Xining City as an example, this article analyzes the mechanism by which industrial park construction drives the expansion of urban population size and built-up area, based on a review of the process of industrial park development and urban population growth. It also discusses future urban governance models in light of urban development trends. The research finds: (1) In the process of urban development, industrial park construction is often the initial factor in the cumulative and cyclical development of a city; (2) As the level of development improves and the mode of economic growth changes, the government should timely adjust its strategies, shifting from the expansion of industrial park construction towards structural optimization and quality improvement. The most significant difference from previous research is that this paper emphasizes the importance of government planning. This study can not only demonstrate the general process of industrial parks promoting urban expansion, but more importantly, it explains the fundamental reasons for the transition of urban expansion to adjustment from a mechanism perspective, thereby eliminating the drawbacks of simply predicting urban scale evolution through data models.

Analysis of Sports Education Construction Based on Matrix Model

Intelligent algorithms based on bionics have a natural advantage in solving nonlinear problems. With the development of computer technology, the development of related technologies has also been greatly promoted, so it has been widely used in a variety of fields. This paper first introduces the research status of the biome algorithm and some problems in the construction of the physical education structure. Through the analysis of the problems, the matrix model is a widely used method to analyze the dynamic changes in plant and animal populations. In this method, matrix algebra is used to describe the structure and change law of population, and the matrix operation model is established to simulate the process of population growth, migration and extinction. The matrix model method can take into account the interaction between individuals in the population and the influence of the external environment and can simulate the dynamic change of the population well. Completed the research on the construction of physical education structure.

Temporal trends in disease burden and attributable risk factors for tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in Nepal, 1990–2019

BackgroundTracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer is one of the most common cancers in Nepal. The aim of this study was to analyze the changing disease burden and risk factors for TBL cancer in Nepal from 1990 to 2019. MethodsTBL cancer burden data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. A decomposition analysis was used to explore the impact of changes in population size, population age structure, age-specific prevalence, and disease severity on long-term trends of the TBL cancer burden in Nepal. ResultsIn 2019, TBL cancer resulted in the loss of 45.2 thousand (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 32.3–59.2 thousand) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Nepal, with the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates increasing by 12.7% (95% UI: −21.0 to 63.9%) and 12.8% (95% UI: −21.1 to 62.0%), respectively, compared with 1990. The proportion of DALYs due to TBL cancer increased significantly among people aged 70 years and older from 1990 to 2019. However, the proportion of DALYs due to TBL cancer still dominated among males and females aged 50–69 years. Population growth, population aging, and increased age-specific prevalence led to an increased disease burden of TBL cancer, while disease severity led to a decreased burden. In 2019, smoking remained the major risk factor for TBL cancer in Nepal, while ambient particulate matter pollution exhibited the most significant rise. ConclusionsThe disease burden of TBL cancer in Nepal has continued to increase over the past three decades, and given the continuing population growth and aging process, TBL cancer is likely to have a considerable impact on health in Nepal in the future. There is a need to further establish effective TBL cancer prevention and control policies.

Support vector machine-based spatiotemporal land use land cover change analysis in a complex urban and rural landscape of Akaki river catchment, a Suburb of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Support vector machine-based spatiotemporal land use land cover change analysis in a complex urban and rural landscape of Akaki river catchment, a Suburb of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Atmospheric Turbidity Index on Pokhara

Population growth, industrialization and other natural processes effects on air-pollution levels and climatic change. Atmospheric turbidity factors are an important parameter for assessing the air pollution. The main objective of this research is to study atmospheric turbidity factors on Pokhara (28.180° N, 83.970° E and 800 m asl), Nepal for a period of one year (2017). The daily data of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are derived from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) of NASA. Daily, monthly and seasonal variation of atmospheric turbidity index are analyzed. The annual average of Angstrom exponential (α), Angstrom coefficient of turbidity (β) and Linked turbidity (LT) are found 1.2 ± 0.2, 0.19 ± 0.17 and 6.7 ± 3.4 respectively. The annual average of visibility is found 3.2 ± 2.5 km. Result of this research work is beneficial for the further identification, impact and analysis of atmospheric turbidity at different places with same geographical condition.

Demographic History of Khakassia

The monograph is devoted to the study of the formation of the population of Khakassia from the end of the 19th century to modern times. The article notes that rapid population growth was associated with periods of industrial development of the region, primarily with the beginning of the creation of the Sayan territorial-production complex and its industrial hubs. Population dynamics show that the formation of the population was mainly due to the migration flow from the regions of Eastern Siberia. The author analyzes the age-sex structure of the population and notes a constant decrease in the number of men. The article pays much attention to the issues of the natural movement of the population of Khakassia, stating the low birth rate and high mortality rate of the population. Based on numerous statistical data, the author examines the problems of migration of the population of the republic, including in recent decades, and analyzes the sources of the migration process of population growth. In the finale, the author raises the question of the demographic security of the republic and proposes the use of individual indicators to assess its level.

Modeling population growth of a proto-city: A new urban accretion growth hypothesis and its P-CPAG model

Modeling population growth of a proto-city: A new urban accretion growth hypothesis and its P-CPAG model

Comprehensive Evaluation of Drainage Channels Along Selected Roads in Medan City, North Sumatra

Population growth has led to an increase in the discharge of runoff and domestic wastewater being channeled into drainage channels. This study aimed to evaluate the drainage volume on Jalan Taud, Medan City, and whether it can accommodate wastewater for the next 50 years. The observed channel started from the boarding house (Jalan Taud No. 112) to the Gulo Pangkas business unit (Jalan Taud No. 16), with a length of 1,000 m. This evaluation considered using population growth, wastewater discharge, runoff discharge, sediment generation, and evapotranspiration processes as part of the water cycle. The investigation showed that the current volume of drainage on Taud Street can still serve the community until 2047. Routine management efforts are needed, such as regular cleaning of the channel from garbage and sediment and also socialization to the community, to making the drainage can function properly.

Sustainable urbanism and urban form: articulations and perspectives

Urban space has been a scene of numerous political, social, and technological transformations during the last two centuries. As a result of an intense process of population and territorial growth of cities, urban fabrics around the world are marked by socio-spatial conflicts, which puts them in a particular urban crisis. As an opposing view, the concept of sustainable urbanism arises, resignifying the paradigmatic urban problems. However, it is a concept of complex definition, both theoretical and, mainly, practical. With the problem based on the development of the praxis of sustainable urbanism, this article aims to discuss aspects of urban form that contribute to the applicability of sustainable urbanism. The paper uses an exploratory methodology as to its objectives and follows a bibliographical research model as to its design. Due to the association proposed, the results indicate the combination of the following morphological principles in the city as desirable elements for urban sustainability: multifunctionality, compactness, connectivity, diversity, access to nature, and definition. The combination of these principles leads to the self-sustainability of the urban space. The article has the potential to contribute to researchers and practitioners scientifically and to assist in the implementation of sustainable cities.

Water Risk Management of Hanoi Urban Environment towards 2030’s Sustainable Urban Spatial Development

The process of population growth and “uncontrolled” urbanization has led to a "loose" management by the government of Hanoi, and lack of proper care on surface water resource and water environment as well as the orientation for sustainable spatial development of Hanoi urban region and its community-based participants at the long-term vision. Therefore, the urgent duties now are to have management measures, specific solution groups to regulate the activities of surface water risk management of Hanoi urban environment towards the related-target group of three rivers runing through Hanoi urban region in order to achive the 2030’s sustainable development goals. Based on the DPSIR’s research framework (Driving force - Pressure - Status - Impact - Response), the results of this study are to propose a model of public-private partnership for the management of Hanoi urban settlement resiliencing to the environmental changes, as a pilot initiative from a case study in Hanoi.

Passive air sampler-derived concentrations and carcinogenic potential of PAHs in oil/gas production city (Macaé, Brazil)

Urban centers cause atmospheric pollution and suffer the most from their emissions. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are persistent toxic substances (PTS) that can be air transported at urban sites and impact human health, causing skin allergies, respiratory diseases, and cancer. Macaé is a southeastern Brazilian coastal city that had an intense process of urbanization and population growth due to the installation of oil companies in the 1970s. The study aimed to evaluate Macaé’s air quality regarding atmospheric PAH occurrence, measured using polyurethane foam passive air samplers (PUF-PAS). PUF disks were deployed along environmental gradients during the 2018–2019 spring/summer in Macaé city and its surroundings. In total, 22 individual PAHs were analyzed by gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. Total PAH air concentrations ranged from 0.3 to 3.3 ng.m-3, pointing out three- to four-membered ring compounds as the most abundant (76%). Among them, phenanthrene, anthracene, and fluoranthene had the highest air concentrations, especially at sampling sites where fossil fuel combustion seemed more prominent. Compared to other cities worldwide, the lower PAH air levels reported in this study may be linked to the influence of marine air masses. As the most carcinogenic PAH compound is benzo[a]pyrene, the results are also given in benzo[a]pyrene-equivalent (BaPeq). BaPeq ranged from 0.02 to 0.10 ng.m-3. This study indicated an environmental trend along urban-industry-background spatial transects. Even though a prominent marine air mass might contribute to efficient air pollution dispersion, in urban/industrial areas, human exposure to carcinogenic chemicals is higher, probably due to local PAH sources inside the urban perimeter of Macaé.

Size and age structure and population of the kaluga Huso dauricus and the Amur sturgeon Acipenser schrenckii (Acipenseridae) in the Amur river

Based on research findings from 1963–2021 the analysis of size-age indicators, qualitative structure of populations and changes in the number of kaluga Huso dauricus and Amur sturgeon Acipenser schrenckii in the river was carried out. Amur. It is established that in the period from the 60s. last century to 2008–2011 in the kaluga and the Amur sturgeon in the Amur River, there was a reduction in the size range and number of age groups, the proportion of mature individuals, the level of replenishment of populations with juveniles and abundance. The main reason for these changes is INN fishing (illegal, unreported and unregulated). According to the results of research in 2021, it was revealed that the modern number of kaluga exceeded the figures of the 60s. last century. In the Amur sturgeon, the process of population growth has not yet reached the historical values noted in the 1960s–1970s, but exceeded the indicators of the 1980s and subsequent years. Despite the noted positive points, at present, the population of kaluga in the river. Amur is characterized by the smallest average size and age over 60 years of study. The situation is better for the Amur sturgeon, which is due to the lower interest of fishermen in this species and the large volume of release of its juveniles from sturgeon hatcheries (ORZ). The reason for the positive dynamics is the artificial reproduction that has been developing on the Amur over the past decade, as well as the introduced set of restrictions on the Pacific salmon fishery. To further increase the number of Kaluga and Amur sturgeon in the river. Amur, it is proposed to maintain the current volumes of artificial reproduction of sturgeons and extend the restrictive measures in the salmon fishery for at least the next 10 years.

Detection and characterization of bioaerosol emissions from wastewater treatment plants: Challenges and opportunities.

Rapid population growth and urbanization process have led to increasing demand for wastewater treatment capacity resulting in a non-negligible increase of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in several cities around the world. Bioaerosol emissions from WWTPs may pose adverse health risks to the sewage workers and nearby residents, which raises increasing public health concerns. However, there are still significant knowledge gaps on the interplay between process-based bioaerosol characteristics and exposures and the quantification of health risk which limit our ability to design effective risk assessment and management strategies. This review provides a critical overview of the existing knowledge of bioaerosol emissions from WWTPs including their nature, magnitude and size distribution, and highlights the shortcoming associated with existing sampling and analysis methods. The recent advancements made for rapid detection of bioaerosols are then discussed, especially the emerging real time detection methods to highlight the directions for future research needs to advance the knowledge on bioaerosol emissions from WWTPs.

Population boom in the borderlands globally

Population boom in the borderlands globally

Limit theorems for supercritical branching processes in random environment

The branching process in random environment {Zn}n≥0 is a population growth process where individuals reproduce independently of each other with the reproduction law randomly picked at each generation. We focus on the supercritical case, when the process survives with positive probability and grows exponentially fast on the nonextinction set. Using Fourier techniques we improve existing central limit theorem as well as we obtain Edgeworth expansions and the renewal theorem for the sequence {logZn}n≥0. The strategy is to compare logZn with partial sums of i.i.d. random variables in order to obtain precise estimates.

The partition of production between households and markets

AbstractThe process of industrialization was accompanied by the switch from household production to firm production. The industrialization process was also a process of population growth, the appearance of general‐purpose technologies, and the expansion of international trade. This paper studies the partition of production between households and firms in an analytically tractable general equilibrium model with a continuum of goods. We show that population growth, development of general‐purpose technologies, and the opening of international trade increase the percentage of goods produced by firms. However, with the appearance of a technology biased toward home production, the percentage of goods produced by households can increase.