Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment Research Articles

Probabilistic analysis of water quality deterioration and health risks assessment incorporating machine learning techniques in Mhlathuze catchment, South Africa

Amidst declining water quality issues in South African coastal aquifers, a study was proposed and assessed 40 water samples from the Mhlathuze catchment to evaluate water quality, identify pollution sources, and assess health risks. A machine learning and integrated Positive Matrix Factorization–Monte Carlo Simulation approach were used for probabilistic risk assessment. The average water quality index is good, poor, and unsuitable category ranging from 44 to 406, where 65% of the samples fell under poor to unsuitable for drinking mainly situated in central and eastern regions. The dominance of contamination sources was noted as: seawater intrusion > N-fertilizer application > Leaching from coal stockpile > industrial landfill leachate > smelting industry > mining activities. The probabilistic health risk assessment revealed negligible risk toward children and adults. Mining activities (> 70%) and high N-fertilizer applications (>14%) were found to contribute highest toward human health risks. Metals such as lead, cobalt, and nickel from such sources were found to be dominant and require paid special attention by authorities for future mitigation studies and strategies. This study contributes to the scientific community by providing insights into contamination trends in industrialized coastal aquifers, supporting advancements in water treatment methods while benefiting the global community with informed policies to regulate industrial and agricultural discharge.

Source-specific probabilistic health risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in soils from a mining area using Monte Carlo simulation: A case study from southwestern Ghana

Source-specific probabilistic health risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in soils from a mining area using Monte Carlo simulation: A case study from southwestern Ghana

Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment and Grading Benchmark Estimation of Atmospheric PM2.5-Bound Heavy Metals in China.

The formulation of reasonable concentration classification standards can significantly enhance the protection of populations against atmospheric heavy metals, and the development of these standards should be grounded in national-level probabilistic risk assessment to establish multiple grading benchmarks. In this study, the probabilistic health risk assessment model was used for the first time to assess the health risks of hazardous metals [arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co), chromium (Cr), mercury (Hg), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), and vanadium (V)] based on a publication dataset containing 57,737 PM2.5-bound heavy metal samples from China. Our results showed that the average non-carcinogenic risk attributed to heavy metals in all provinces of China was less than 1. In contrast, the average carcinogenic risk was greater than 10-6 in all provinces. The logarithmic mean non-carcinogenic health risks for the eight non-carcinogenic metals were ranked as follows: V (- 1.55 ± 0.96) > As (- 1.79 ± 0.96) > Mn (- 1.84 ± 0.82) > Co (- 2.05 ± 0.89) > Cd (- 2.14 ± 0.94) > Ni (- 2.59 ± 0.92) > Cr (- 3.26 ± 0.93) > Hg (- 4.86 ± 0.91), while the logarithmic mean carcinogenic health risk for the seven carcinogenic metals was Cr (- 5.33 ± 0.93) > V (- 5.79 ± 0.96) > As (- 5.98 ± 0.96) > Co (- 6.32 ± 0.89) > Cd (- 6.89 ± 0.94) > Pb (- 7.02 ± 0.93) > Ni (- 7.22 ± 0.92). The metals that contributed most to the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were V (35.86%) and Cr (57.61%), respectively. Through probabilistic risk assessment, we constructed seven-level health benchmarks for carcinogenic metals (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, Pb, V). These benchmarks of extremely low health risk for the seven carcinogenic metals (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, Pb, V) were 0.00037μg/m3, 0.0011μg/m3, 0.00012μg/m3, 0.00011μg/m3, 0.0043μg/m3, 0.025μg/m3, and 0.00031μg/m3, respectively. Overall, this study is the first nationwide comprehensive assessment of the probabilistic risk of atmospheric PM2.5-bound toxic metals and provides a theoretical basis for revising and improving China's air quality standards.

Mercury levels in freshwater aquatic products across China: Spatial distribution, species differences, and health risk assessment.

Mercury levels in freshwater aquatic products across China: Spatial distribution, species differences, and health risk assessment.

Deterministic and probabilistic health risk assessment of α-chaconine and α-solanine in potato products consumed in Korea.

This study aimed to assess the health risks of α-chaconine and α-solanine, glycoalkaloids (GAs) commonly found in potatoes, in the Korean population using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. A total of 146 potato samples, including raw and processed varieties, were analyzed for these GAs using a validated high-performance liquid chromatography-photodiode array method. GAs were detected in 63.0% of samples, with concentrations ranging from 2.29 to 172.19mgkg-1. Deterministic risk assessments, based on daily dietary exposure estimates, indicated that the 1-2-year-old age group had the highest exposure to these compounds. Although the margin of exposure (MOE) values for most age groups exceeded 10, indicating low health risk, the MOE values for the 1-2-year-old group fell below 10 in certain scenarios, such as the 95th percentile extreme exposure, raising potential safety concerns. Probabilistic risk assessment using Monte Carlo simulations provided a more refined evaluation by accounting for variability in consumption patterns. This study underscores the importance of using both approaches for a thorough risk assessment, particularly in vulnerable populations such as young children. Further research on GA levels in processed potatoes is recommended to better understand exposure and mitigate risks. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: This research helps ensure the safety of potato products by evaluating the health risks of GAs found in potatoes. The findings highlight the need to monitor GA levels and could guide food safety regulations and industry practices to protect vulnerable groups, such as young children, from potential risks.

Source apportionment and probabilistic health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediment from an urban shallow lake.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediment from urban shallow lake Bubanj (Serbia) were investigated in terms of their concentration, distribution, and potential effects on the environment and human health. The concentration of 16 PAHs (ΣPAHs) ranged from 24.4 to 107ng/g dw. Low-molecular-weight PAHs (2- and 3-aromatic rings) were dominant, accounting for 71% of the total. Multivariate statistical analyses revealed that the main source of PAHs was the incomplete combustion of organic sources. Diagnostic ratios and positive matrix factorization (PMF) methods further indicated that combustion of organic matter and petroleum leakage were the dominant sources. The toxic equivalent quantity (TEQ) of ΣPAHs varied from 0.5 to 17.6ng-TEQ/g-dry. BaP had the highest contribution to TEQ, followed by Ant, DahA, and BaA, with respective shares of 74.3%, 6.4%, 5.6%, and 5.3%. Dermal contact and ingestion were the primary exposure routes for PAHs, whereas inhalation posed negligible cancer risk. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) values for adults were in the range of 3.9 × 10-9-1.4 × 10-7 and for children 5.3 × 10-9-1.9 × 10-7, indicating negligible carcinogenic health risks. Monte Carlo simulation showed that ILCR values for adults and children remained below the permissible limit of 1.0 × 10-6, even at the 90th percentile.

Hydrochemical characteristics, water quality, and probabilistic health risk assessments of groundwater in Caraveli Province, South Peru

ABSTRACT Despite its scarcity, groundwater in Marcona’s catchment area represents the primary source of water for the local population of Caraveli Province, Peru. In this study, hydrochemical analyses, Entropy Water Quality Index (EWQI) evaluations, and health risk assessments (HRAs) were conducted to determine the quality and probabilistic health risks of groundwater. The results indicated that the hydrochemistry of groundwater was primarily influenced by evaporation, water–rock interactions, and anthropogenic activities. The recharge zone was a relatively suitable source for irrigation. Groundwater within the catchment zone failed to meet certain irrigation standards, and groundwater from the remaining zones was not suitable for irrigation. EWQI values indicated that approximately 41.9% of the samples were suitable for drinking. Notably, the sensitivities of Fe, Cl−, Na+, NO3 −, and SO4 2− were 13.18%, 2.02%, 1.71%, 1.28%, and 1.23%, respectively. Probabilistic noncarcinogenic HRAs determined the health risks associated with NO3 −, Fe, and Mn to be 9.3% for adults and 31.9% for children. These noncarcinogenic health risks were primarily attributable to Fe and NO3 −. In summary, this study explores the mechanism underlying water quality and health risks in arid regions, underscoring the importance of enhancing public awareness regarding the long-term consequences of consuming contaminated groundwater.

Heavy metal enrichment characteristics and synergistic evaluation in soil-crop-human systems of agricultural land with different soil parent materials.

Heavy metal (HM) pollution in agricultural areas seriously threatens food security and ecological health. In this study, based on different soil parent materials, the HMs enrichment in the soil-crop systems of two typical eastern Chinese agricultural lands was compared and analyzed. Multivariate linear stepwise regression analysis, influence index of comprehensive quality and HHRA model were used to understand the bioaccumulation and to evaluate the soil-crop-human system. The study showed that HMs exhibited different enrichment characteristics in the two soil parent material areas. Cd faced a higher risk control rate and was a priority pollutant in the soil environment. The acidification soils in the granitic parent material area led to more widespread Ni pollution in wheat grains. The HM absorption model clarifies that driving factors such as the HM content, physicochemical properties and the distance to the river can well explain the enrichment ability of HMs in wheat grains. The synergistic evaluation revealed that only 13.04% of soil and crops were at a clean level. Soil contamination is more prevalent in the metamorphic rocks area, while crop contamination is more severe in the granitic parent material area. Probabilistic health risk assessment indicated that HMs primarily impact health through the ingestion of contaminated wheat, so residents of the granitic parent material area face a slightly higher HI. This information will be crucial for understanding the translocation and accumulation of HMs within soil-crop-human health systems of agricultural land in different soil parent material areas and for developing effective pollution prevention and control programs.

Integrated internal and external exposure models for dimethylformamide risk assessment and health risk monetization.

Integrated internal and external exposure models for dimethylformamide risk assessment and health risk monetization.

Quantifying the sources and health risks of groundwater nitrate via dual NO isotopes and Monte Carlo simulations in a developed planting-breeding area.

Quantifying the sources and health risks of groundwater nitrate via dual NO isotopes and Monte Carlo simulations in a developed planting-breeding area.

Advanced matter-element extension model and machine learning for source-specific probabilistic health risk assessment of heavy metals/metaloids in soil-rose systems in Kushui, Northwest China

Advanced matter-element extension model and machine learning for source-specific probabilistic health risk assessment of heavy metals/metaloids in soil-rose systems in Kushui, Northwest China

Enrichment mechanism and probabilistic health risk assessment of high-fluoride groundwater in Gaomi City, China.

Fluoride (F) is the most important inorganic pollutant in groundwater that affects human health, and analyzing the causes of high-fluoride groundwater is a prerequisite for protecting the health of residents. To comprehensively understand the enrichment characteristics of groundwater in the high-fluoride areas, this study systematically investigated the concentrations of fluoride in Gaomi City, a typical study area in the Jiaolai Plain and explored the spatiotemporal distribution patterns, enrichment mechanisms, and the probabilistic health risk associated with F-. The results indicate that there is serious fluorine pollution in groundwater, which is mainly concentrated in the alluvial plain in the north and affected by topographical and aquifer characteristics. Favorable runoff conditions effectively improve the fluoride status of shallow groundwater on both sides of rivers and in hilly areas. Hydrogeochemical methods reveal the mechanism of fluoride enrichment. The relative contributions rates of different hydrogeochemical processes to the fluoride enrichment are as follows: dissolution and precipitation (39.02%) > cation exchange (25.25%) > competitive adsorption (19.48%) > seawater intrusion (3.14%) > evaporative and concentration (1.99%). Health risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation shows that health risk susceptibilities of different populations are infants (76.07%), children (66.59%), teenagers (44.54%), and adults (5.68%), respectively. In addition, targeted management suggestions are put forward regarding the enrichment mechanisms of fluoride in groundwater and its impact on health. These findings have significant implications for controlling regional diffuse F- contamination in groundwater, protecting public health, and promoting social development in regions with a high risk of groundwater fluoride contamination.

Probabilistic health risk assessment of BTEX contamination in groundwater using the set of triplets methodology: a case study near Shiraz Oil Refinery, Iran

Probabilistic health risk assessment of BTEX contamination in groundwater using the set of triplets methodology: a case study near Shiraz Oil Refinery, Iran

Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in People Living Near the Mine-Closure in Tak Province

Heavy metals including lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), and cadmium (Cd) can damage the kidney, liver, brain, lungs, blood composition, and other vital organs. As a result, their toxicity, especially when contaminated in food, water, and soil, can be harmful to human health. This study evaluated the risk of adverse health effects to residents near closed zinc mines in Tak Province, Thailand. Data was collected from three subdistrict sites and analyzed for probable health risk. Scenario pathways were oral and dermal contact of heavy metals; including Pb, Zn, and Cd, in four age groups with average daily dose and hazard quantification; hazard index (HI); and cancer risk (CR) considered. Results were that carcinogen risk quantification exceeded the recommended limit (CR ≤10-6) in all scenarios, and the hazard index for non-carcinogenic risk was below the acceptable level (HQ ≤1), in which Cd dominated for all categories. These findings suggest that all medias and food products should be appropriately monitored, especially with carcinogenic surveillance, to mitigate health effects on residents.

Application of Mont Carlo Simulation and Artificial Neural Network Model to Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment in Fluoride-Endemic Areas

Application of Mont Carlo Simulation and Artificial Neural Network Model to Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment in Fluoride-Endemic Areas

The concentration and prevalence of aflatoxins and ochratoxin A in imported rice (Oryza sativa) samples from Iranian market: a probabilistic dietary risk assessment

ABSTRACT This investigation aimed to measure the concentrations of total aflatoxin (AFT), aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), and ochratoxin A (OTA) in imported rice samples to Iran and conduct a probabilistic health risk assessment for consumers. Three thousand seven hundred fifty-one imported rice samples were randomly collected from March 2022 to April 2024. The AFT, AFB1, and OTA concentrations were analysed using high-performance liquid chromatography with a flame ionisation detector (HPLC-FID) and an ultraviolet detector (HPLC-UV). The ranking of mycotoxins based on mean concentration in rice was as follows: AFT (3.996 ± 6.925 µg/kg) > AFB1 (2.648 ± 5.746 µg/kg) > OTA (0.088 ± 0.847 µg/kg). The prevalence of these mycotoxins was found to be AFT present in 897 out of 3,710 samples (24.18%), AFB1 in 657 samples (17.52%), and OTA in 40 samples (1.07%). Significant correlations were observed between AFT and AFB1 (C: 0.96, p-value < 0.001), AFT and OTA (C: 0.28, p-value < 0.001), and AFB1 and OTA (C: 0.15, p-value < 0.001). The 95th percentile of the Margin of Exposure (MOE) for AFB1 in adult and child consumers was 0.930 and 0.270, respectively, while the Hazard Quotient (HQ) for OTA in adults and children was 0.030 and 0.100, respectively. The estimated cancer risk percentages for AFB1 in rice were 22.220 for adults and 43.500 for children. Overall, consuming imported rice containing AFT, AFB1, and OTA does not pose a significant non-carcinogenic risk to consumers’ health. However, the carcinogenic risk in Iran is higher than in other countries. Therefore, it is recommended that more effective and continuous monitoring programmes be implemented to ensure the quality of imported rice.

Ochratoxin a levels in Turkish coffee: a probabilistic health risk assessment via Monte Carlo simulation.

Throughout history, Turkish coffee has been the most widely consumed type of coffee in Turkey. Therefore, the goal of this study was to determine the amount of ochratoxin A (OTA) present in Turkish coffee and to analyze any potential health hazards. A total of 41 Turkish coffees were collected and analyzed for OTA activity using a competitive enzyme immunoassay (ELISA). Furthermore, dietary exposure and health risk assessments for the Turkish population were calculated based on analytical results and coffee consumption data from the Turkish Nutrition and Health Survey 2019 (TNHS-2019) in three age categories (15-18, 19-64, and 65 + years). Nine of the samples contained more than 2.5μg/kg OTA, with an average of 5.24μg/kg. The OTA concentration in 3 samples exceeded the permissible maximum limit (5μg/kg) established by Turkish legislation, and the mean concentration was 8.41μg/kg. A margin of exposure (MOE) approach was used for risk characterization, considering both non-neoplastic and neoplastic consequences. There were no concerns about health risks because MOEs were more than 10,000 for all categories. Although the levels of OTA analyzed in Turkish coffee did not pose a risk to individuals in the three age categories, emphasis should be placed on minimizing and controlling OTA concentrations in Turkish coffee. Additionally, it is also necessary to consider other food sources that could contribute to OTA exposure.

Probabilistic health risk assessment of primary aromatic amines in polyamide cooking utensils in China by Monte Carlo simulation

Probabilistic health risk assessment of primary aromatic amines in polyamide cooking utensils in China by Monte Carlo simulation

Heavy metal contamination assessment and source attribution in the Vicinity of an iron slag pile in Hechi, China: Integrating multi-medium analysis

Heavy metal contamination assessment and source attribution in the Vicinity of an iron slag pile in Hechi, China: Integrating multi-medium analysis

Deciphering the driving factors and probabilistic health risks of potentially toxic elements in arid surface water: Insights from the Tarim River Basin

Deciphering the driving factors and probabilistic health risks of potentially toxic elements in arid surface water: Insights from the Tarim River Basin