The aim of the study is to reconstruct the role of women economists who have had a significant impact on the development of the national accounts measurement in the post-World War II Era. In particular, the role played by sisters Maria and Vera Cao Pinna in defining household consumption was explored. Their expertise helped to overcome theoretical-definitional and statistical obstacles arising from the complex activity of defining the statistical framework for economic and social accounts, which still contribute to define the aggregate of private consumption consumption as a component of National Income. In the 1940s, private consumption expenditure presented problems related to both the estimation of quantities consumed and prices. These problems were subsequently overcome by applying the criterion of “consistency” between the aggregates that make up the National Accounts after the Second World War.

This study examines the heterogeneous determinants of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Thailand using quantile regression to capture variation across the emission distribution. Monthly data from 2015 to 2024 were analyzed, incorporating economic, energy, and demographic indicators such as crude oil production, power consumption, the Leading Economic Index (LEI), Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF), tourism, unemployment, population, and the Private Consumption Index (PCI). The analysis reveals significant cross-quantile asymmetry, indicating that emission drivers differ based on intensity. At the lower quantiles, tourism and unemployment are statistically significant, suggesting that low-emission periods are more sensitive to service-sector activity and labor market conditions. At the median and higher quantiles, energy-related variables dominate; power consumption is consistently significant across all quantiles, while crude oil production becomes increasingly important at upper quantiles. Economic indicators such as LEI, CIF, and PCI show weak or inconsistent effects, while population and CIF are not significant at any quantile. These findings highlight the need to enhance energy efficiency, promote renewable energy adoption, and encourage sustainable tourism to support Thailand’s low-carbon transition.

Confidence is a key element of any economy, as it determines variables such as consumption and investment. In particular, consumer confidence has proven useful in analyzing and forecasting private consumption. Therefore, this study explores the relationship between the consumer confidence indicator and Okun’s Misery Index in Mexico using an autoregressive distributed lag model, which also considers the real GDP and the bilateral real exchange rate of Mexico with the U.S. as control variables. The model uses quarterly observations for the period 2005Q1 to 2024Q2. The results demonstrate that GDP increases the consumer confidence indicator, whereas depreciation in the Mexican peso negatively affects it. However, Okun’s misery index negatively affects the consumer confidence indicator only in the long term.

The relationship between private consumption expenditure and public expenditure represents a recurring theme in macroeconomics, with relevance to both empirical and theoretical discourse. However, there is a lack of consensus on its direction. Accordingly, this study aims to examine whether public expenditure rules out private consumption expenditure for European Union during the period of 1995–2022. The findings indicate that public expenditure has a positive effect on private consumption expenditure over the long term, thereby corroborating Keynesian theory. However, except the defense expenditure, the findings demonstrate the complementary effect of public expenditures on private consumption expenditures. Moreover, disposable income has a positive influence in all model specifications, which corroborates the Keynesian Absolute Income Hypothesis. Considering the findings, this study also suggests some policy recommendations for the future.

In recent years a fundamental shift in Japanese official vision of its mid-term economic goals can be traced. Failure to accelerate economic growth, despite clear-cut commitment by late ex-PM Shinzo Abe to overcome decades-long stagnation, exposed inability of the government to secure sustainable demand-pull growth of the country’s GDP. Prolonged monetary expansion coupled with fiscal stimulus proved to be ineffective to boost private consumption and domestic investment to the extent necessary to achieve annual output growth of 2–3%. The specter of deflation still looms over Japanese economy despite surge in domestic prices. Public debt is growing, while gradual adjustment of policy rate by BoJ will add to the burden of debt servicing. Under such conditions the idea of putting ambitious targets for GDP dynamics and rehabilitation of public finances is being dropped. Instead, the task of protecting incomes and consumption from mostly external challenges and risks is increasingly drawn on to define goals of economic strategy. Incomes and employment are being proclaimed the highest priority when planning economic policies in midterm and long-term perspective. Related reforms and improvements are increasingly seen as a clue to the country’s competitiveness and to sustainable growth based on supply-side factors. Also, the notion of economic prosperity and wealth is being reconsidered to include criteria other than GDP or material assets. Abundance of intellectual and organizational resources with mechanisms for their constant improvement and utilization, ability to innovate and expand are named among alternative goals of economic strategy aimed at preserving and improving the country’s high international status.

This study examines the impact of remittance on the economic growth of Nepal employing time series data. The analysis has incorporated the macroeconomic variables such as GDP, Remittance (REM), Balance of Payments (BOP), Private Consumption (PCO), and Private Investment (PIN), using 48 years observations. Unit root tests indicated that the variables are integrated at mixed levels of I (0) and I (1), justifying the use of ARDL model. A structural break in 2010 was incorporated using a dummy variable. The long-run results indicated a significant negative relationship between remittance and GDP, where a percentage increase in remittance reduces GDP by 0.155 percent. BOP, PCO, and PIN exhibited positive but statistically insignificant long-run effects. In the short run, remittance has a significant negative effect in the current year but significant positive impacts in its first and second lags. The error correction term is -0.5972, suggesting that nearly 60 percent of the short-run disequilibrium adjusts back to long-run equilibrium annually. A significant positive time trend and structural break influence were also observed through the analysis of the data. The model was approved through all the major diagnostic and stability tests, reflecting the reliable results. Findings suggest that while remittance may support short-term consumption, they do not have positive contribution in the long-term economic growth.

Household savings in China are markedly higher than in peer economies, which have been channeled into financing excessive investment. This paper examines the structural and cyclical factors contributing to China’s elevated household savings. The analysis suggests that low government social spending in rural areas and residency (“Hukou”) restrictions in urban areas play a significant role in increasing household savings. In addition, the paper provides evidence that fluctuations in real estate prices significantly impact household savings, both through the wealth effect and the downpayment effect (i.e., need for non-homeowners to save so as to afford downpayments), though the latter channel has weakened after the recent real estate market correction. These findings suggest that further strengthening social safety nets, continuing Hukou reforms, and policies that promote a more efficient transition for the housing market can help reduce household savings and boost private consumption, thus facilitating China’s economic rebalancing.

Policymakers in small open economies need reliable signals of incipient private consumption downturns, yet traditional indicators are revised, noisy, and often arrive too late. This study develops a Romanian-specific early warning system that combines a time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility and exogenous drivers (TVP-SV-VARX) with modern machine learning classifiers. The structural layer extracts regime-dependent anomalies in the macro-financial transmission to household demand, while the learning layer transforms these anomalies into calibrated probabilities of short-term consumption declines. A strictly time-based evaluation design with rolling blocks, purge and embargo periods, and rare-event metrics (precision–recall area under the curve, PR-AUC, and Brier score) underpins the assessment. The best-performing specification, a TVP-filtered random forest, attains a PR-AUC of 0.87, a ROC-AUC of 0.89, a median warning lead of one quarter, and no false positives at the chosen operating point. A sparse logistic calibration model improves probability reliability and supports transparent communication of risk bands. The time-varying anomaly layer is critical: ablation experiments that remove it lead to marked losses in discrimination and recall. For implementation, the paper proposes a three-tier WATCH–AMBER–RED scheme with conservative multi-signal confirmation and coverage gates, designed to balance lead time against the political cost of false alarms. The framework is explicitly predictive rather than causal and is tailored to data-poor environments, offering a practical blueprint for demand-side macroeconomic early warning in Romania and, by extension, other small open economies.

ABSTRACT We examine whether individual‐level social openness correlates with country‐level financial openness. We build indexes of social openness for close to 100 countries using principal component analysis of World Values Survey questions, and we test if these correlate with direct or portfolio capital flows. There is a statistically significant relationship between social openness and portfolio inflows and outflows, such that net portfolio flows are unaffected. This finding holds mostly for developed countries, with only weak evidence for developing ones, and it is robust to various measurement issues. There is also weak evidence that nations with greater social openness experience less volatile private and government consumption growth.

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with government interventions, significantly reshaped economic activity, leading to abrupt shifts in household consumption behavior. This paper offers an empirical analysis of how the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines influenced consumer spending, using high-frequency debit and credit card transaction data from three European countries. The findings indicate that vaccinations, in conjunction with other policy measures, helped mitigate the pandemic's severe economic impact and supported a recovery in consumer spending. First, the deployment of vaccines had a statistically and economically significant positive effect on private consumption. Second, additional policy responses-aimed at containing the virus and providing financial support to households and businesses-also had notable effects on both the volume and composition of card-based transactions. Third, the stimulative impact of vaccinations on consumer spending was more pronounced in contact-intensive sectors, such as services, compared to goods.

Abstract John Evelyn (1620–1706), in Tyrannus, or, the mode in a discourse of sumptuary lawes (1661), decried the foreign fashions that threatened the English economy and symbolized Restoration extravagance. He supposedly instilled these beliefs in his daughter Mall (1665–85), with whom he co-authored the Mundus muliebris: or, the ladies dressing-room unlock’d (1690), a remarkable satire that expressed contempt at the frivolous new modes of apparel adopted by elite women. Yet, incongruously, many of these same ridiculed styles appear in the family’s accounts and correspondence. Indeed, the purchasing habits of Evelyn’s wife, Mary (1635–1709), and daughters reveal a firm commitment to maintaining a fashionable appearance. This article recovers the unexplored attitudes of the Evelyn women towards clothing consumption and the varied ways they maintained their wardrobes. A close reading of the Mundus muliebris alongside the family’s accounts, bills, and correspondence reveals the seminal, paradoxical role of dress as highly contentious yet socially ubiquitous. Through its biographical framework, the article highlights how private consumption practices within elite households like that of the Evelyns challenge the prevalence of published narratives attacking elite women’s fashion. In turn, it reveals the dangers of taking these polemical texts at face value.

The impact of trade openness on private consumption in a heavily import-dependent country

Abstract This paper presents a model of private provision of a public good where individuals have altruistic preferences and care about the private and public good consumption of the other members of their group. I compare the Nash level of the public good to the benchmark level of provision by a social planner who aggregates the preferences of group members. I find that income inequality can cause overprovision of the public good as compared to the planner's benchmark. To understand overprovision, I examine a second model where, in addition to contributing to the public good, members can give private transfers of income to other members they care about. The Nash equilibrium of the model with transfers is found to be closely connected to the equilibrium of the model without transfers. Overprovision can occur in the model without transfers because the richer individuals contribute to the public good as a way to improve the welfare of the poor (noncontributors to the public good) in the absence of private transfers. These results indicate that public goods cannot substitute the role of income transfers to the poor, even when individuals are altruistic, if there is extreme income inequality.

We estimate an approximation of the equilibrium real exchange rate to measure the Mexican currency overvaluation, which is approximately of 25.3% in the first quarter of 2024. The nominal exchange rate level that would return the real exchange rate to its equilibrium level would be $22.77 Mexican pesos per US dollar, in contrast to an average nominal exchange rate of $17.00 observed in first quarter of 2024 and an average nominal exchange rate of $19.51 in the second quarter of 2025. The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) changed in 2023 the base year to measure real variables as GDP, private consumption, public consumption and exports from 2013 to 2018 chained pesos. It is essential to estimate the VAR and a VEC models for period 1995Q1-2024Q1 using the new time series provided by INEGI to obtain updated and subsequent estimates of the magnitude and how it changes the Mexican peso overvaluation. The fitted values of the cointegration equation provide us with the approximation of the equilibrium real exchange rate. Although the observed real exchange rate has risen from the local minimum reached in the first quarter of 2024, it is appreciating again starting in the second quarter of 2025. If this appreciation continues, there is a risk of a return to significant exchange rate overvaluation.

What are consumer sentiment indicators a measure of?

This article aims to analyze the operation of the Port of Chancay and its relationship with the economic activity of medium and large companies located in the province of Huaral during 2021. The study responds to the need to understand how port modernization can generate effects on trade, exports, investment, and private consumption in the region. The methodology applied was descriptive, with a quantitative approach and a non-experimental cross-sectional design. A structured questionnaire was administered to 20 companies, consisting of 5 large and 15 medium-sized enterprises. The results show that 40% of participants perceive that the Port of Chancay adequately contributes to foreign trade; however, 25% consider that its current competitiveness is still insufficient. Likewise, proximity to Lima was identified as a strategic advantage to consolidate Chancay as a multipurpose port. The research concludes that the port has a positive, though limited, impact on the business dynamics of Huaral, highlighting the need to improve its management and strengthen infrastructure. Finally, it is recommended to disseminate the benefits of this megaproject and promote public policies that ensure its integration into the national and international logistics chain.

Despite having moderate levels of public debt sovereign spreads, Guatemala is a country with limited levels of public investment efficiency (PIE) that actively constrain much needed infrastructure and social investment. This Selected Issues Paper (SIP) analyzes the effects of improving PIE on key real, fiscal and external macroeconomic indicators and finds that higher PIE would allow Guatemala to sustain higher levels of external debt, weaker fiscal balances and current account balances without worsening sovereign risk premia. The overall effect amplifies the welfare benefits of higher PIE for households through higher private consumption.

This paper aims to assess the impacts of some pension reforms on the economic welfare and main macroeconomic variables in the Ecuadorian economy, where the goverment covers 40% of the benefits. We use an overlapping model, where two types of simulations are carried out for balancing the government’s budget: 1) income taxes and social security contributions; and 2) consumption taxes (value added tax, or VAT) that finance pensions, considering tax evasion as well. The simulations suggest that the elimination of the government’s financing of contributory pensions, along with a reduction of the replacement rate to50%, leads to a welfare gain of 15.8%, and an increase in steady-state GDP and private consumption of 13.5% and 6.4%, respectively. Results are even higher if VAT is used instead.

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between digitalization, economic sustainability, and Vietnam's pursuit of Net Zero emissions from 1975 to 2023, a period marked by rapid technological advancements. Employing econometric methods, including unit root tests, Johansen cointegration, and Granger causality, alongside robustness checks using Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the research explores the complex interlinkages between digital connectivity, economic sustainability indicators, and emissions. Findings reveal a statistically significant positive relationship between digitalization and emissions, acknowledging technology's dual role in both economic resilience and environmental impact. Trade intensity, private consumption, and primary sector activities, particularly energy-intensive agriculture and export-oriented industry are identified as significant drivers of CO2 emissions. The analysis quantifies these effects and identifies time-related feedback mechanisms, providing insights into sustainability-oriented trade and industrial policies. PCA further confirms a negative correlation between sustainability scores and emissions. Policy recommendations emphasize renewable energy investments for ICT infrastructure, green technology promotion, digital literacy initiatives, and sustainable macroeconomic policies focused on resource optimization. These findings offer actionable strategies for Vietnam's Net Zero transition and provide valuable lessons for other emerging Asian economies facing similar challenges.

Purpose The transition towards sustainable diets requires profound changes in the food system and the involvement of various actors, including citizens. This calls for the development of processes for citizen participation. Design/methodology/approach This article explores the role of design-driven approaches in leveraging citizens’ knowledge and enhancing their capacities to contribute to policy processes. Through a series of workshops, citizens collaborated to ideate and evaluate food policies and retail-related measures to promote sustainable diets. Findings According to the results, citizens can draw on their everyday experiences as consumers and leverage broader political thinking to address public issues. However, citizens also appear to self-select towards issues of private consumption and away from the realm of public policy. Research limitations/implications The data are collected from a relatively homogeneous group of people. The voices of marginalised groups are limited due to the methodology of open participation. The study highlights that citizens expect diversity when participating in collaborative design processes and confirms the tendency of open participation to reproduce existing social biases. Practical implications Organisers and facilitators of processes of open participation should develop means to counter the inherent biases in citizen participation. Available means include hybrid forms of participation, diversity in the means of recruitment, and workshop design that utilises the diversity among participating citizens. Originality/value According to the results, citizens can draw on their everyday experiences as consumers and leverage broader political thinking to address public issues. However, citizens also appear to self-select towards issues of private consumption and away from the realm of public policy.