International Trade Prices Research Articles

The Challenge of the US Dollar Standard System and the New Changes of the Global Monetary System

In the past century, the international monetary system has undergone obvious changes, from the domination of the British pound to the domination of the US dollar, and then to the emergence and strengthening of "de-dollarization", which is also in line with the trend of The Times of economic multi-polarization, and the multi-polarization of the monetary system has become the trend of history. However, whether in foreign exchange reserves, international trade pricing and settlement, or due to the strong comprehensive national strength of the United States, it can be said that the US dollar will remain stable for a long time, and the international monetary system will remain relatively stable. How to maintain the stability and development of the national economy in emerging economies under the transformation of the old and new monetary systems, and how to develop the international monetary system will be an important proposition of the times.

Corporate income taxation and external balances in the European Union

This study examines the impact of corporate taxation on the external balances of 27 European Union member countries from the late 1990s to 2021. Using an ARDL process and a 2-stage least squares estimation procedure, we find that, in the short term, higher corporate taxation is positively and significantly related to the current account balance and the trade balance for the whole sample. There are considerable differences in the effects in the euro area and non-euro countries, with the latter experiencing a much stronger short-term impact. In the long term, there are no critical differences in the results between the two groups, and the impact of corporate taxation is positive but statistically significant only for the trade balance. The size of the impact of corporate taxation on net exports and current account balances is of similar magnitude, which likely implies that the international profit shifting via manipulating intrafirm prices in international trade does not strongly affect the external balances in our sample. Our results imply that initiatives to increase global tax rates could be justified from an international trade perspective.

Dominant Currency Pricing in International Trade of Services

Dominant Currency Pricing in International Trade of Services

The impact of rising maritime transport costs on international trade: Estimation using a multi-region general equilibrium model

This paper evaluates the impact of the 2021–22 surge in rates for containerized and bulk shipping costs. Employing a detailed transport database and applying a set of detailed shocks by transportation mode, regions and commodities in a multi-region general equilibrium model, the paper analyses the sectorial (agri-food sectors, manufacturing) and macroeconomic (trade, wide-economic indicators) impacts of the recent surge in shipping costs. Maritime transport costs are sensitive to imbalances between global demand and supply, which rose further after the Covid-19 pandemic. In a globalised world, an increase in shipping rates can have widespread repercussions on international trade, creating risks for the global economic activity. The results allow the analysis of how shocks in transport costs can affect prices in international trade and explain the short- and medium-term impacts on the economy. The main finding is that rising maritime transport costs tend to reverse the trend towards globalisation of international trade and favour localization.

Dynamics of coking coal pricing in international trade in 1980–2020

Dynamics of coking coal pricing in international trade in 1980–2020

Determinants of Production, International Trade Price Index (IHPI) and the Rupiah Exchange Rate on Indonesian Palm Oil Exports in 2007-2021

This research is motivated by the export of palm oil from Indonesia to Malaysia where there are inconsistencies in the determinants that affect the value of exports which can be seen from the number of production levels, the international trade price index (IHPI) and the rupiah exchange rate. speed. This shows the need for research. more about palm oil exports. In this study aims to determine, analyze, explain the influence of Indonesian palm oil exports to Malaysia. The type of research used is quantitative research supplemented by data for the period 2007 to 2021 sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The data analysis technique used in this study is the Multiple Regression test which includes the Classical Assumption Test, and the Hypothesis Test. The results of the two tests show that in terms of production volume, the International Trade Price Index (IHPI) tends to be positive and not significant, while the rupiah exchange rate tends to be negative and not significant. This means that Indonesian palm oil exports to Malaysia have increased and decreased unbalanced, so these export activities require a strategy that can emphasize export figures by providing information to domestic and foreign investors, both private and government agencies, to pay more attention to several governments.

International Trade Price Index: A Leading Indicator for Indonesia's Inflation?

As one of essential indicators in economy, inflation rate can be determined by several factors. One of these factors is price index other than CPI, representing price change, other at consumer level. Many studies have examined the effect of price indices such as Producer Price Index (PPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on inflation, including in Indonesia. However, in an open economy, the level of openness, which can be approximated by International Trade Price Index (IHPI), may also influence changes in inflation. In Indonesia, no studies still examine the nexus between ITPI and inflationThis study aims to examine the effect of price indices variables other than at consumer level, particularly ITPI, on inflation and whether we can use it as one of the leading indicators of inflation in Indonesia. The analysis results of the ARDL-ECM model show that all price indices variables simultaneously influence inflation. However, the effect of each variable partially on inflation in the short and long run varies. The speed of adjustment to return to equilibrium is 4.67% per month after the shock happened. Nevertheless, the effect of ITPI on inflation is insignificant, both in the short and long run. Thus, we can conclude that ITPI is not yet able to be a leading indicator of inflation in Indonesia. However, the result of this study must be carefully concluded since the use of time series analysis depends on the lag length and the number of observations included.

Predictive analytics of the copper spot price by utilizing complex network and artificial neural network techniques

The copper prices in international trade markets are volatile. An accurate copper price prediction may guide commodity trading and firm profits in the copper industry. In this paper, a hybrid predictive technique combining complex network and traditional artificial neural network (ANN) techniques is developed for copper price forecasting. This technique first transforms the original price time series to a price volatility network (PVN) and extracts the volatility characteristics from the topological structure of the PVN. After the original data are reconstructed, three widely used ANN techniques, the BPNN, RBFNN, and ELM, are applied to forecast the future copper price. To examine the forecasting performance of the proposed PVN-ANN techniques, the published data of copper spot prices from the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) are used. The empirical results show that the proposed hybrid PVN-ANN techniques can obtain a favorable prediction effect in both level and directional predictions compared to those of the traditional ANN techniques. This result clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid predictive techniques in revealing the underlying nonlinear patterns of international copper prices.

Impact of services trade on economic growth and current account balance: Evidence from India

ABSTRACTThis paper aims to study the impact of services trade on India’s economic growth and current account balance during the post-reform period. Earlier studies on this subject have mostly looked at the goods sector. Indian studies which analysed services-led growth from a balance of payments perspective suffered from a bias of having focused only on call-centre exports. In such a context, this study brings in a novel approach by using the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth model and autoregressive distributed lag cointegration to estimate the balance of payments equilibrium growth rate for India’s service sector. The key service sub-sectors are also identified using input–output tables and the TIVA database. This study finds that India’s service sector is growing at a rate almost equal to its balance of payments equilibrium growth rate under the assumption of constant relative prices in international trade, and at a rate lower than the equilibrium growth rate when this assumption is relaxed. Among the major services in India’s export basket, construction, transport and business services are found to exhibit strong backward linkages. Foreign value-added content in India’s services exports is found to be highest in the case of business services, transport services and telecommunications.

An intelligent classification model for peanut’s varieties by color and texture features

India is the second largest producer of peanuts in the world, and they are available in different forms: Bold or Runner, Java or Spanish and Red Natal. The main peanuts varieties produced in India are Kadiri-2, Kadiri-3, BG-1, BG-2, Kuber, GAUG-1, GAUG-10, PG-1, T-28, T-64, Chandra, Chitra, Kaushal, Parkash, Amber, etc. Peanut is the prime crop for our country’s peasants to increase their agricultural income. However, our country’s international trade price of peanut is only 80% of the average market price. The automation level of testing peanut kernels’ quality is low because of workers fatigue, and most of the work is done by manpower leads costly. The peanuts are evaluated in many areas for sowing and oilseed processing; they must be identified quickly and accurately for selection of a correct variety and kernels’ quality. The proposed testing method based on image processing and computer vision is a new one which is undamaged, speedy with high distinguishing rate, repeatability and low cost and fatigue. In this paper, machine-learning classifiers (Multilayer Perceptron, Simple Logistic, Support Vector Machines, and Sequential Minimal Optimization and Logistic classifiers) are investigated to obtain the best predictive model for peanuts classification. The training and test sets are used to tune the model parameters during the training epochs by varying the complexity of the predictive models with K-fold cross-validation. After obtaining optimized models for each level of complexity, a dedicated validation set is used to validate predictive models. The developed computer vision system provided an overall accuracy rate for the best predictive model in discriminating peanuts variety are Random Forest (82.27%), Multilayer Perceptron(84.9%), and libSVM (86.07%)

Exchange rate nonlinearities in India’s exports to the USA

Exchange rate nonlinearities in India’s exports to the USA

Study on Food Import in D. R. Congo

Democratic Republic of Congo is a developing country located in Central Africa with a population of over 75 million. Generally, it relies on import in international market for food as it has constantly been experiencing domestic crisis which hinders production. Given the importance of shores price policy and income policy, the government pays meticulous attention to these factors to meet the present and future food security. In order to understand the import behavior related to GDP and international trade prices, the study employs Almost Idea Demand System (AIDS) model using FAO data. The result explains that price effect is more useful to the food security of the country than the income effect, thus this study suggest the government should give priority to policy on price.

With Whom Do Nations Trade? – The Fading Distance

Distance has conventionally been considered a major determinant of the direction of international trade. This contrasts, intuitively, with the generally-acknowledged fact that transportation costs are only a minor component of prices in international trade. The present study estimates the impact of distance on mutual trade flows in alternative, more direct methods than those employed traditionally in the literature. In particular, it looks at the “intensity ratio” in mutual trade; and asks to what extent its deviation from the size expected under an assumption of “neutrality” may be explained by mutual distances. It is found that, by and large, distance is a minor determinant of the trade of nations with each other. It is of some significance when trade flows within quite short ranges are concerned; but beyond these, the impact of distance on trade largely fades away.

WPŁYW ZMIAN CEN W HANDLU MIĘDZYNARODOWYM W XXI WIEKU NA DYNAMIKĘ EKSPORTU I TEMPO WZROSTU GOSPODARCZEGO KRAJÓW AMERYKI ŁACIŃSKIEJ

WPŁYW ZMIAN CEN W HANDLU MIĘDZYNARODOWYM W XXI WIEKU NA DYNAMIKĘ EKSPORTU I TEMPO WZROSTU GOSPODARCZEGO KRAJÓW AMERYKI ŁACIŃSKIEJ

International Trade Price Stickiness and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Micro Data: A Case Study on US-China Trade

The interaction between the exchange rate regime, trade firms' price-setting behavior, and exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) is an important topic in international economics. This paper studies this using a goods-level dataset of US-China trade prices collected by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. We document that the duration of US-China trade prices has declined almost 30% since China abandoned its hard peg to the US dollar in June 2005. A benchmark menu cost model that is calibrated to the data can replicate the documented decrease in price stickiness. We also estimate ERPT of Renminbi (RMB) appreciation into US import prices between 2005 and 2008. Goods-level data allows us to estimate that the lifelong ERPT is close to one for goods that have at least one price change, but less than one-half when all goods are included. This finding can be attributed to the fact that around 40% of the goods never experienced a price change, and supports the hypothesis that price changes that take the form of product replacements may bias ERPT estimates downwards.

A Bargaining Theory of Trade Invoicing and Pricing

We develop a theoretical model of international trade pricing in which individual exporters and importers bargain over the transaction price and exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. We find that the choice of price and invoicing currency reflects the full market structure, including the extent of fragmentation and the degree of heterogeneity across importers and across exporters. Our study shows that a party has a higher effective bargaining weight when it is large or more risk tolerant. A higher effective bargaining weight of importers relative to exporters in turn translates into lower import prices and greater exchange rate pass-through into import prices. We show the range of price and invoicing outcomes that arise under alternative market structures. Such structures matter not only for the outcome of specific exporter-importer transactions, but also for aggregate variables such as the average price, the average choice of invoicing currency, and the correlation between invoicing currency and the size of trade transactions.

International Trade Price Stickiness and Exchange Rate Pass-through in Micro Data: A Case Study on U.S.–China Trade

The interaction between the exchange rate regime, trade firms' price-setting behavior, and exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) is an important topic in international economics. This paper studies this using a goods-level dataset of US-China trade prices collected by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. We document that the duration of US-China trade prices has declined almost 30% since China abandoned its hard peg to the US dollar in June 2005. A benchmark menu cost model that is calibrated to the data can replicate the documented decrease in price stickiness. We also estimate ERPT of RMB appreciation into US import prices between 2005 and 2008. Goods-level data allows us to estimate that the lifelong ERPT is close to one for goods that have at least one price change, but less than one-half when all goods are included. This finding can be attributed to the fact that around 40% of the goods never experience a price change, and supports the hypothesis that price changes that take the form of product replacements may bias ERPT estimates downwards.

A Bargaining Theory of Trade Invoicing and Pricing

We develop a theoretical model of international trade pricing in which individual exporters and importers bargain over the transaction price and exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. We find that the choice of price and invoicing currency reflects the full market structure, including the extent of fragmentation and the degree of heterogeneity across importers and across exporters. Our study shows that a party has a higher effective bargaining weight when it is large or more risk tolerant. A higher effective bargaining weight of importers relative to exporters in turn translates into lower import prices and greater exchange rate pass-through into import prices. We show the range of price and invoicing outcomes that arise under alternative market structures. Such structures matter not only for the outcome of specific exporter-importer transactions, but also for aggregate variables such as the average price, the average choice of invoicing currency, and the correlation between invoicing currency and the size of trade transactions.

Oil Currency and the Dollar Standard: A Simple Analytical Model of an International Trade Currency

The U.S. dollar is the central reference currency for international trade pricing and the main invoicing currency for primary commodities. This paper links these two observations within a stylized theoretical framework, and shows how to obtain a quantitative estimate of the gain to the U.S. economy when the dollar is a reference currency. With dollar invoicing of primary commodities, U.S. firms bear less exchange rate risk than foreign firms. This asymmetry leads to a dollar standard in international goods pricing. We then derive a simple analytical formula to calculate the gains and find that they are extremely small.

A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy

New Zealand is a small economy exposed to a volatile climate, relatively volatile international trade prices, and its exposure to international financial markets has increased markedly since economic reforms in the 1980s. This paper applies identification techniques suggested by Cushman and Zha [Cushman, D.O. and Zha T.A., 1997. Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates, Journal of Monetary Economics, 39, pp. 433–448.], Zha [Zha, T.A., (1999). Block recursion and structural vector autoregression, Journal of Econometrics, 90, pp. 291–316.] and Dungey and Pagan [Dungey, M. and Pagan, A., 2000. A structural VAR model of the Australian economy, The Economic Record, 76, pp. 321–342.] to develop a large four block structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle to capture these features. The model reveals that climate and international trade price shocks have been more important sources of business cycles fluctuations than international or domestic financial shocks. Furthermore, the model does not encounter the price and exchange rate puzzles that have bedevilled attempts to identify monetary policy shocks in small open economy SVAR models.