Cigarette Prices Research Articles

Research on the Relationship Between Average Cigarette Price per Box and Government Procurement in City A Based on a Regression Model

This study aims to analyze and predict the relationship between the average price per box in the cigarette market of City A and government procurement, providing a scientific basis and support for decision-making. By reviewing relevant theories and literature, qualitative prediction methods, regression prediction models, and other related theories were explored. Through the analysis of annual cigarette sales data and government procurement data in City A, a comprehensive understanding of the development of the tobacco industry and the economic trends of tobacco companies in the county was obtained. By predicting and analyzing the average price per box of cigarette sales across different years, corresponding prediction results were derived and compared with actual sales data. The prediction results indicate that the correlation coefficient between the average price per box of cigarette sales and government procurement is 0.982, implying that government procurement accounts for 96.4% of the changes in the average price per box of cigarettes. These findings offer an in-depth exploration of the relationship between the average price per box of cigarettes in City A and government procurement, providing a scientific foundation for corporate decision-making and market operations.

An overlooked market: loose cigarettes, informal vendors and their implications for tobacco taxation

ObjectiveTo examine the features of markets for loose cigarettes in several low-income and middle-income countries and their effects on tobacco control policies, particularly taxation.DesignAn analysis of survey data targeting people...

Better cigarette tax policies and higher tobacco excise tax revenues

BackgroundIn November 2021, the Tobacconomics team published the second edition of the Cigarette Tax Scorecard which evaluates cigarette taxation in each country based on four components—cigarette price, affordability change, tax...

Unlocking the power of tobacco taxation to mitigate the social costs of smoking in Mexico: a microsimulation model.

Despite being the most cost-effective tobacco control policy, tobacco taxation is the least implemented component of the World Health Organization MPOWER package to reduce smoking worldwide. In Mexico, both smoking prevalence and taxation have remained stable for more than a decade. This study aims to provide evidence about the potential effects of taxation to reduce the burden of tobacco-related diseases and the main attributable social costs in Mexico, including informal (unpaid) care costs, which are frequently ignored. We employ a first-order Monte Carlo microsimulation model that follows hypothetical population cohorts considering the risks of an adverse health event and death. First, we estimate tobacco-attributable morbidity and mortality, direct medical costs and indirect costs, such as labour productivity losses and informal care costs. Then, we assess the potential effects of a 50% cigarette price increase through taxation and two alternative scenarios of 25% and 75%. The inputs come from several sources, including national surveys and vital statistics. Each year, 63 000 premature deaths and 427 000 disease events are attributable to tobacco in Mexico, while social costs amount to MX$194.6 billion (US$8.5)-MX$116.2 (US$5.1) direct medical costs and MX$78.5 (US$3.4) indirect costs-representing 0.8% of gross domestic product. Current tobacco tax revenue barely covers 23.3% of these costs. Increasing cigarette prices through taxation by 50% could reduce premature deaths by 49 000 over the next decade, while direct and indirect costs averted would amount to MX$87.9 billion (US$3.8) and MX$67.6 billion (US$2.9), respectively. The benefits would far outweigh any potential loss even in a pessimistic scenario of increased illicit trade. Tobacco use imposes high social costs on the Mexican population, but tobacco taxation is a win-win policy for both gaining population health and reducing tobacco societal costs.

The African cigarette price data landscape: an overview of gaps and opportunities

IntroductionAfrica has the lowest cigarette taxes of any region. Price data are needed to produce evidence that informs tax policy change.ObjectiveTo locate and describe datasets that provide information on cigarette...

Who uses cigarette price promotions in the U.S.? examining the combined effect of social identities

IntroductionTobacco industry offers price promotions to promote cigarette smoking. Several social identities (e.g., women, people with low socioeconomic status) are independently associated with exposure and use of these promotions. We examined how combinations of social identities relate to use of cigarette price promotions. MethodsWe analyzed data from adults who reported current cigarette smoking and purchased their own cigarettes in the 1995–2019 U.S. Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (n = 35,749). We applied a statistical-learning boosting algorithm followed by weighted logistic regression models with 3-way interactions to identify combinations of social identities related to cigarette price promotion use. ResultsThis analysis revealed that use of cigarette price promotions varied greatly by combinations of social identities. For example, estimated 39.80% of Asian female adults living in the Midwest used these promotions in their last purchase. Meanwhile, estimated 2.80% of Asian male 31–45-year-old adults reported the same behavior. Additionally, American Indian/Alaskan Native peoples were indicated in four of the ten combinations of social identities with highest prevalence of cigarette price promotion use. DiscussionOur approach allowed for discovery of previously less appreciated social identities (e.g., race/ethnicity) related to high probability of using cigarette price promotions. These findings also revealed how combination of social-identity-related power dynamics may shape use of cigarette price promotions. Adopting this perspective in future surveillance and policy evaluation effort will provide better understanding in commercial tobacco use disparities.

Do tobacco regulatory and economic factors influence smoking cessation outcomes? A post-hoc analysis of the multinational EAGLES randomised controlled trial

IntroductionWe previously reported global regional differences in smoking cessation outcomes, with smokers of US origin having lower quit rates than smokers from some other countries. This post-hoc analysis examined global...

Tobacco Control Policy in India: Progress and Challenges Quantified Using the Tobacco Control Scale.

One of the most vexing challenges to public health today is the menace of tobacco. Despite the large body of evidence indicating the vast scale of health hazards, tobacco use continues to be a major cause of preventable death. This study was conducted with the objective of quantifying the progress and challenges of the tobacco control policy of India. The Tobacco Control Scale (TCS) was used, which has a maximum score of 100 and assesses nine components including, price of cigarettes, smoke-free public and work places, spending on public information campaigns, comprehensive bans on advertising and promotion, large pictorial health warning labels, treatment to help smokers stop, illicit tobacco trade, tobacco industry interference and ratification of the WHO FCTC. The components of the TCS for India were scored based on data obtained from the WHO, Report on The Global Tobacco Epidemic, 2021 and the Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products Act 2003 and their amendments and the Tobacco India 2023 country profile. The total score for the tobacco control scale placed India at 65 points, scoring highest with respect to 'large pictorial health warning labels', and lower with respect to 'spending on public information campaigns', 'illicit tobacco trade' and 'price of cigarettes'. Strong tobacco control legislation and its equally robust implementation is an affirmative step in achieving the vision of the WHO-FCTC and empowering the world towards being tobacco free.

Response of legal and illegal cigarette prices to a tax increase in Ethiopia

BackgroundIn 2020, Ethiopia passed a landmark tax proclamation implementing an evidence-based mixed excise system aimed at curbing tobacco use. This study evaluates the impact of the tax increase of more...

The price elasticity of heated tobacco and cigarette demand: Empirical evaluation across countries.

The market for heated tobacco products (HTPs) has grown rapidly in recent years, and many governments have started to include HTPs in tax codes to regulate their use. Currently, the evidence on how HTP prices impact tobacco use behaviors or whether consumers consider them as economic substitutes for cigarettes is lacking. This study is the first to answer these questions with a unique database to assess the own- and cross- price elasticities of HTP and cigarette demand. We collect a unique database of quarterly retail prices and sales of heated tobacco units and comparable scale cigarettes from 2014 to 2022, available for most countries where both HTPs and cigarettes are sold, and estimate the own- and cross- price elasticities of cigarette and HTP demand using a seemingly unrelated regression model. We find that HTP demand is price elastic (i.e., sensitive to prices) and has an own-price elasticity of -1.2 to -1.3, about four times greater than the own-price elasticity of cigarettes, which is about -0.3. We also find that cigarettes and HTPs are weak economic substitutes: while HTP demand is responsive to higher cigarette prices, cigarette demand is not sensitive to HTP prices. Our results suggest that tax policies that increase HTP and cigarette prices simultaneously will reduce HTP consumption without increasing cigarette consumption.

Association between current cigarette prices and cessation behaviors among male adult smokers: findings from 2018 to 2020 ITC Vietnam surveys

BackgroundThis study evaluated the impact of the tax increase in January 2019 on changes in intention to quit and the effect of cigarette prices on quit attempts and successful quitting among male cigarette smokers in Vietnam.MethodsData were derived from the ITC project in Vietnam, which included 1585 adult smokers at baseline (Wave 1, Aug-Oct 2018) followed up to waves 2 (Sep-Nov 2019) and 3 (Sep-Dec 2020). Generalized estimating equations regression was performed to estimate changes in the intention to quit. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the cigarette price of a cigarette pack in relation to quit attempts and successful quitting.ResultsThe increase in cigarette tax in 2019 did not significantly increase the likelihood of the intention to quit. After the tax increase, 63.6% of participants who smoked made a quit attempt, and 27.6% successfully quit smoking in the follow-up waves. However, the price of a cigarette pack was not significantly associated with quit attempts and successful quitting. The study did not observe a significant impact of cigarette prices on quit attempts and successful quitting in all subgroups of household income. Factors associated with quit attempts included the number of cigarettes smoked and the intention to quit, while those associated with successful quitting included age, dual use of cigarettes and other tobacco products, and the intention to quit.ConclusionCurrent cigarette prices were not associated with cessation behaviors even within the lowest household income group. Therefore, a sharp rise in cigarette tax is required to incentivize smokers to quit smoking.

Tobacco industry pricing strategies during recent tax adjustments in Mexico: evidence from sales data

IntroductionPrevious studies have identified pricing strategies that the tobacco industry employs to try to minimise the impact of tobacco taxation, but these studies are mostly about high-income countries. This research...

Benefits of population-level interventions for dementia risk factors: an economic modelling study for England

Individual-level interventions for dementia risk factors could reduce costs associated with dementia and some are cost-effective. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of population-level interventions for tackling dementia risk factors. In this economic modelling study, we included recommended population-based interventions from a previously published review article for which there was consistent and robust evidence of effectiveness in tackling a dementia risk factor (tobacco smoking, excess alcohol use, hypertension, obesity, air pollution, and head injury). We only included interventions if they had not been introduced in England or were in place but could be extended. The interventions studied were increases in tobacco pricing, minimum pricing for alcohol, raising alcohol price, salt reduction policies, sugar reduction policies, low emission zones, and compulsory helmet use for cycling by children (aged 5-18years). We used published intervention effect sizes and relative risks for each risk factor and a Markov model to estimate progression to dementia in populations with and without the intervention, looking at lifetime risk, in the population of England. We estimated that reductions in excess alcohol use through minimum unit pricing would lead to cost-savings of £280million and 4767 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained over an indefinite succession of age cohorts. Reformulation of food products to reduce salt would lead to cost-savings of £2·4billion and 39 433QALYs gained and reformulation to reduce sugar would lead to cost-savings of £1·046billion and 17 985QALYs gained. Reducing dementia risk from air pollution by introducing low emission zones in English cities with a population of 100 000or more (that do not already impose restrictions) would lead to £260million cost-savings and 5119QALYs gained. Raising cigarette prices by 10% to reduce dementia risk from smoking would lead to 2277QALYs gained and cost-savings of £157million. Making bicycle helmets compulsory for children (aged 5-18years) to reduce dementia risk from head injury would lead to cost-savings of £91million and 1554QALYs gained. Population-level interventions could help tackle life course dementia risk and save costs. UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Three Schools dementia research programme.

Interaction Between State-Level Cigarette Prices and County-Level Tobacco 21 Coverage on Cigarette Smoking Outcomes Among US Adolescents

PurposeTo examine whether Tobacco 21 (T21) law coverage moderated associations between cigarette prices and adolescent smoking and associated disparities. MethodsWe used nationally representative, repeated cross-sectional 2014–2020 Monitoring the Future study data (n = 20,547–96,083) to examine associations between state-level average cigarette price per pack and county-level T21 coverage (100% vs. < 100%) on past 30-day smoking participation, first and daily cigarette smoking initiation, and smoking intentions in US adolescents in eighth, 10th, and 12th grade. We implemented weighted, grade-stratified, modified Poisson regression models to test for interactions between price and T21 coverage for each outcome. We also tested for disparities by sex, race and ethnicity, parental education, and college educational expectations. ResultsHigher cigarette prices were associated with a lower probability of past 30-day smoking participation among eighth graders in counties with < 100% T21 coverage (average marginal effect = −0.003, 95% confidence interval = −0.006, 0.000) but not among eighth graders in counties with 100% T21 coverage (average marginal effect = 0.001, 95% confidence interval = −0.001, 0.004) (p for interaction = 0.005). There were no associations with other smoking outcomes or grades or evidence of differential associations by sociodemographic factors. DiscussionOur findings suggested that higher cigarette prices were associated with lower adolescent smoking among eighth graders living in counties with < 100% T21 coverage. However, no such association was observed in other grades or smoking outcomes. Further investigation is necessary to determine the best combination of policies to reduce adolescent smoking, related sociodemographic disparities, and the use of other tobacco products in areas with fewer tobacco control policies.

Cigarette smoking decline among US young adults from 2000 to 2019, in relation to state-level cigarette price and tobacco control expenditure

ObjectiveTo investigate the association of state-level cigarette price and tobacco control expenditure with the large 2000–2019 decline in cigarette smoking among US 18–24 year-olds.MethodsSmoking behaviour was assessed in the 24...

Would plain packaging and health warning labels reduce smoking in the presence of informal markets? A choice experiment in Colombia

BackgroundDespite progress made by many countries on the adoption of plain tobacco packaging laws over the last years, low- and middle-income countries, with a large supply of loose cigarettes via informal vendors, remain far behind. AimTo study the potential effectiveness of plain tobacco packaging and dissuasive cigarette sticks, via willingness-to-pay estimates, when illicit cigarette options are available. MethodsWe conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in which respondents chose licit and illicit products with three attributes: packaging (standard vs. plain packaging), stick design (branded stick vs. stick with warning), and price level. The sample, collected on 12/2021, consisted of 1761 respondents from an internet panel involving smokers and nonsmokers. Conditional logit and latent class models were used to estimate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) to avoid restrictive packaging elements. ResultsNonsmokers are willing to pay USD $5.63 for a pack of cigarettes to avoid plain packaging, which is higher than the actual commercial price of illicit cigarettes (USD $2.40). The WTP increases to USD $12.14 in the presence of illicit alternatives. Smokers are also willing to pay to avoid illicit options, which they also deem riskier, and the presence of such options increases the WTP to avoid plain packaging. However, nonsmokers do not perceive the illicit option as riskier. The dissuasive stick (stick with warning) does not affect perceptions of risk and plays a small role in terms of choice for both smokers and nonsmokers. ConclusionsEven in the presence of illicit tobacco alternatives, plain packaging seems to be as effective in reducing the attractiveness of tobacco products in Colombia as in other countries that have already adopted it. Given conflicting results on the case for dissuasive sticks, there is a need for more research.

Price elasticity of cigarette smoking in Bangladesh: evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys (GATS)

IntroductionThe overall prevalence of cigarette smoking has not changed significantly for over a decade in Bangladesh. Raising the price of cigarettes through taxation is an important policy instrument for reducing...

Affordability of cigarettes in ten Southeastern European countries between 2008 and 2019

BackgroundThe empirical evidence shows that tobacco consumption is strongly associated with its affordability. The nominal growth in tobacco prices imposed by taxation should exceed or at least keep pace with...

Estimating own-price and cross-price elasticity of cigarette consumption by price tiers in Bangladesh

ObjectivesThe overall price elasticity of cigarette consumption in Bangladesh has been studied extensively. The estimates of price elasticity by price tiers are not available in the existing literature.MethodsUsing cohort data...

The cigarette market in Brazil: new evidence on illicit practices from the 2019 National Health Survey

ObjectiveTo explore new evidence on illicit practices, such as selling legal brands below the minimum legal price (MLP), and smugglers selling illicit brands at or above the MLP.MethodsFor the first...