Previous Time Period Research Articles

Behavioral response to promotion-based public transport demand management: Longitudinal analysis and implications for optimal promotion design

Abstract Increasing ridership in the urban rail systems in major cities is outpacing their designed capacity. Promotion based demand management can facilitate better utilization of the available capacity of the existing system when the investment and opportunity to expand the system are limited. While several studies address short-term behavioral responses to such promotions using before and after analysis, how behavioral changes are sustained in the long run is also very important as well as differences in response among different user groups. Using an extensive smart card dataset over two years from Hong Kong’s urban heavy railway system, this paper explores the longitudinal behavior of passengers in response to a promotion aiming at changing passengers’ travel period from peak to the pre-peak. The approach uses customer segmentation to understand the heterogeneous response of different groups. Users who have high flexibility in schedule and familiarity with the system and travel long distances tend to be more likely to change their travel periods to take advantage of the discount. The longitudinal promotion analysis reveals that 35–40% of passengers who initially adopted the promotion will eventually revert to their previous travel time periods. The results suggest that the promotion designs should be adjusted/renewed over time to sustain the initial response given the attrition of early adopters. Based on the behavioral analysis, an ‘optimal’ promotion design approach is applied to examine the effectiveness of promotion strategies given different behavioral responses over time, heterogeneous group behavior, and constraints on the investment budgets and performance requirements. The promotion design using group-specific response can better target price-sensitive users, hence improves its effectiveness over time, while the design based on the average response shows a significant performance decrease. However, the optimal design schemes using different behavioral responses are relatively consistent in terms of the selected stations for promotion, though some differences exist in the discount levels and time periods for the areas where there can be more early morning travelers. From a design perspective, there is not much difference in the promotion effectiveness regardless of the behavioral response assumed for the design.

An Assessment of Randomized Controlled Trial Quality in The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery: Update from 2001 to 2013.

The quality of reporting of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in The Journal of Bone & Joint Surgery (JBJS) from 1988 to 2000 was previously analyzed. The purpose of this current study was to analyze the quality of reporting of RCTs published in JBJS from 2001 to 2013 to identify trends over time and potential areas of improvement for future clinical trials. A manual search of the JBJS database identified RCTs published between January 2001 and December 2013. Quality assessments, using the Detsky quality-of-reporting index (Detsky score), a modified Cochrane risk-of-bias tool, and abstraction of relevant data identifying predictors of quality, were conducted. A total of 5,780 publications were identified in JBJS from 2001 to 2013, with 285 RCTs (4.9%), representing an increase from the prior 13-year period. The overall mean transformed Detsky score (and standard error) increased significantly (p < 0.001) from 68.1% ± 1.67% to 76.24% ± 0.72%. The percentage of multicenter RCTs decreased from 67% to 31%. The percentage of positive trials also decreased from 80% to 50.5%, as did the mean sample size (212 to 166). Regression analysis indicated that trials with an epidemiologist as the first author and nonsurgical trials were significantly associated (p = 0.001) with a higher overall trial quality score. The categories of the lowest mean methodology scores were randomization and concealment, eligibility criteria, and reasons for patient exclusion, as identified with the Detsky score, and patient and assessor blinding, as identified with the risk-of-bias assessment. The quantity and quality of published RCTs in JBJS have increased in the 2001 to 2013 time period compared with the previous time period. Although these improvements are encouraging, trends to smaller, single-center trials were also observed. To efficiently determine the efficacy of orthopaedic treatments and limit bias, high-quality randomized trials of appropriate sample size and rigorous design are needed.

Endemic-epidemic models with discrete-time serial interval distributions for infectious disease prediction

Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for analyzing and predicting the spread of infectious disease. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, a class of autoregressive models for infectious disease surveillance counts, and replace the default autoregression on counts from the previous time period with more flexible weighting schemes inspired by discrete-time serial interval distributions. We employ three different parametric formulations, each with an additional unknown weighting parameter estimated via a profile likelihood approach, and compare them to an unrestricted nonparametric approach. The new methods are illustrated in a univariate analysis of dengue fever incidence in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and a spatiotemporal study of viral gastroenteritis in the 12 districts of Berlin. We assess the predictive performance of the suggested models and several reference models at various forecast horizons. In both applications, the performance of the endemic-epidemic models is considerably improved by the proposed weighting schemes.

Modelling of heat stress in a robotic dairy farm. Part 4: Time constant and cumulative effects of heat stress

Heat stress is usually assessed using thermal comfort indices (TCIs) that calculate integrated values of temperature, humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. However, the negative effect of heat stress is related not only to the intensity but also the duration of heat stress endured, as well as the accumulated influence from previous time periods. This study was conducted to develop adjusted TCIs which could simultaneously quantify the intensity and duration of heat stress. The data for this study came from production and climate data collected on a robotically milked dairy-farm. Thresholds of heat stress under diurnal pattern (0–24 h) and lag pattern (−90 to 0 d) for different TCIs were identified to be related to a significant decrease of daily milk yields (DMY). An intensity duration index (IDI) was proposed to evaluate daily short-term heat stress (HIDI) and heat stress relief (RIDI), by multiplying the percentage difference between TCIs and their threshold values (i.e. intensity) by the duration. Thresholds of HIDI and RIDI, as well as their sum i.e. IDItotal were identified to describe multiple levels of heat stress with different significant decrease rate of DMY from −0.01 to −0.05 kg∙cow−1∙d−1[DMY]∙(%∙h)−1[IDI]. To evaluate the long-term lag and cumulative effects of heat stress, TCIs with weighted cumulative adjustment (TCIWCE) and heat stress adjustment (TCIHS) were defined by assigning a different level of importance to daily TCIs of the previous period and calculating the average of these weighted TCIs. Multiple linear regressions between DMY and adjusted TCIs (i.e. TCIWCE and TCIHS) were performed considering age, body mass (BM) and days in milk (DIM) as basic independent variables. The adjusted R squared (R2) and residual root mean square (RMS) values of these regressions were used for comparison. Using adjustment TCIWCE or TCIHS was found to increase the adjusted R2 and decrease RSS, indicating an improved explanation of variance in heat stress impact.

Что фактически фиксируется в качестве исторического поселения

Выявление на территории современного населённого пункта некой чётко локализуемой объёмно-пространствен­ной и планировочной целостности, характеризуемой как историческое поселений, представляет и сегодня серьёзную проблему. Суть проблемы заключается в размытости понятия «историческое поселение», установленного в действующем Федеральном законе «Об объектах культурного наследия (памятниках истории и культуры) народов Российской Феде­рации» от 25.06.2002 № 73-ФЗ. Нечёткость и неконкретность формулировки «предмета охраны» исторического поселения, также усложняет, а в ряде случаев делает невозможной чёт­кую локализацию такого уникального градостроительного исторического объекта, как «Историческое поселение».&#x0D; В статье рассматривается проблема локализации объ­ёмно-пространственной и планировочной целостности исторического поселения. Представлены результаты анализа законодательно введённого определения «Историческое по­селение» и его некорректность. Доказывается, что основопо­лагающим фактом, подтверждающим наличие исторического поселения на территории современного населённого пункта, следует признать сохранившуюся историческую среду даже в случае отсутствия объектов культурного наследия. Осно­ванием такого утверждения является признание ценнейшим достоянием материализованной в предшествующие периоды времени нематериальной действительности. Именно истори­ческая среда поселения является ярчайшим материальным свидетельством этой нематериальной действительности или творческой деятельности ушедших поколений граждан кон­кретного поселения. Это именно то, что необходимо выявить для того, чтобы установить правила эксплуатации в целях сохранения для будущих поколений.

Understanding the marginal distributions and correlations of link travel speeds in road networks

Link travel speeds in road networks are essential data for a variety of research problems in logistics, transportation, and traffic management. Real-world link travel speeds are stochastic, and highly dependent on speeds in previous time periods and neighboring road links. To understand how link travel speeds vary over space and time, we uncover their distributions, their space- and/or time-dependent correlations, as well as partial correlations, based on link travel speed datasets from an urban road network and a freeway network. We find that more than 90% (57%) of travel speeds are normally distributed in the urban road (freeway) network, and that correlations generally decrease with increased distance in time and space. We also investigate if and how different types of road links affect marginal distributions and correlations. The results show that different road link types produce quite similar marginal distributions and correlations. Finally, we study marginal distributions and correlations in a freeway network. Except that the marginal distribution and time correlation are different from the urban road network, others are similar.

Achieving forward unforgeability in keyword-field-free conjunctive search

It is commonsense that the data should be encrypted by searchable encryption before being outsourced to the cloud for its confidentiality and availability. Most of existing studies focus on forward privacy, we initiate the study of forward unforgeability, which defines the time periods when files can be uploaded while the forward privacy defines the time periods when files can be queried. For example in log-files management, we should block the attackers from revising the logs of previous time periods. We find that forward unforgeability is helpful in dealing with the problem. However, it is still challenging to achieve forward unforgeability in case of searchable encryption. In this paper, we formalize the key exposure problem in keyword-field-free conjunctive keyword search (KFF-CKS) and define the forward unforgeability of KFF-CKS formally. Then we design a general framework where any forward unforgeable KFF-CKS scheme can be applied there for practical use. After that, we construct a novel KFF-CKS scheme with forward unforgeability (FU-KFF-CKS) under this framework. Furthermore, we formally prove the security properties of our FU-KFF-CKS under random oracle model and compare our construction with previous ones in a theoretical view. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments and the results validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed FU-KFF-CKS.

Mental Health and Behavior of College Students During the Early Phases of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Longitudinal Smartphone and Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.

BackgroundThe vast majority of people worldwide have been impacted by coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In addition to the millions of individuals who have been infected with the disease, billions of individuals have been asked or required by local and national governments to change their behavioral patterns. Previous research on epidemics or traumatic events suggests that this can lead to profound behavioral and mental health changes; however, researchers are rarely able to track these changes with frequent, near-real-time sampling or compare their findings to previous years of data for the same individuals.ObjectiveBy combining mobile phone sensing and self-reported mental health data among college students who have been participating in a longitudinal study for the past 2 years, we sought to answer two overarching questions. First, have the behaviors and mental health of the participants changed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic compared to previous time periods? Second, are these behavior and mental health changes associated with the relative news coverage of COVID-19 in the US media?MethodsBehaviors such as the number of locations visited, distance traveled, duration of phone usage, number of phone unlocks, sleep duration, and sedentary time were measured using the StudentLife smartphone sensing app. Depression and anxiety were assessed using weekly self-reported ecological momentary assessments of the Patient Health Questionnaire-4. The participants were 217 undergraduate students, with 178 (82.0%) students providing data during the Winter 2020 term. Differences in behaviors and self-reported mental health collected during the Winter 2020 term compared to previous terms in the same cohort were modeled using mixed linear models.ResultsDuring the first academic term impacted by COVID-19 (Winter 2020), individuals were more sedentary and reported increased anxiety and depression symptoms (P<.001) relative to previous academic terms and subsequent academic breaks. Interactions between the Winter 2020 term and the week of the academic term (linear and quadratic) were significant. In a mixed linear model, phone usage, number of locations visited, and week of the term were strongly associated with increased amount of COVID-19–related news. When mental health metrics (eg, depression and anxiety) were added to the previous measures (week of term, number of locations visited, and phone usage), both anxiety (P<.001) and depression (P=.03) were significantly associated with COVID-19–related news.ConclusionsCompared with prior academic terms, individuals in the Winter 2020 term were more sedentary, anxious, and depressed. A wide variety of behaviors, including increased phone usage, decreased physical activity, and fewer locations visited, were associated with fluctuations in COVID-19 news reporting. While this large-scale shift in mental health and behavior is unsurprising, its characterization is particularly important to help guide the development of methods to reduce the impact of future catastrophic events on the mental health of the population.

Coaction vs. Reciprocal Cooperation Among Unrelated Individuals in Social Cichlids

Members of social groups often temporally coordinate their behaviours, for instance in defence or foraging. In the context of cooperation, simultaneous or sequential coordination of behaviour may allow social partners to adjust their cooperative effort quickly among each other. By manipulating individual behaviours, here we tested experimentally whether unrelated brood care helpers of the cichlid fish Neolamprologus pulcher would cooperate in dyads when enabled to dig out a joint shelter or to defend their territory against a predator. Both the digging and defence efforts of social partners were contingent on each other’s investment, and the test subjects temporally coordinated these behaviours. Remarkably, the direction of conditional responses to each other’s cooperative investment diverged between the two chosen experimental time frames, which tested for coaction and reciprocity. Test subjects reduced their own digging and defence efforts while their partners were showing these behaviours themselves, implying that they did not exert coaction but rather economized on their investment. In contrast, if a social partner had helped to dig out the common shelter in a previous time period, focal test fish advanced their digging effort in the subsequent experimental phase, which indicates reciprocal cooperation. Social partners also coordinated shelter use when they could see each other, especially after they had been visually exposed to a predator. Our results reveal coordination of cooperative behaviours among unrelated social partners, which has not yet been experimentally demonstrated in cooperatively breeding vertebrates.

ЄВРОПЕЙСЬКІ ЗАСАДИ ВЗАЄМОВІДНОСИН УКРАЇНИ ТА НАТО ТА ВИВЧЕННЯ ДОСВІДУ НЕЙТРАЛІТЕТУ У ЗОВНІШНІХ ВІДНОСИНАХ ОКРЕМИХ ДЕРЖАВ

The article considers European principles of reciprocal relations between Ukraine and NATO and scrutinizing the experienceof neutrality of foreign relations of separate states generating and generalizing the fundamental principles on settlement and exitfrom the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict. The attention has also been stipulated on the peculiarities on obtaining neutrality byEuropean states, scrutinizing the experience of separate countries towards settlement of external conflicts (Sweden, Finland).The government of Sweden has determined a new defense policy, related with the non-participation in wars, loses its practicalcontent and the neutral status of the mentioned countries to a certain extent becomes a symbolic consequence of historictraditions. The separate issues of fundamental principles of the development of relations between Ukraine and NATO have beenscrutinized.There’s a new tendency visible in the foreign policy of states – unlike the previous periods of time the neutral and non-blocstates do not avoid nor open the international political, economic and even military cooperation, they cooperate within theframework of UN, NATO, EU, OSCE hoping that this cooperation will facilitate the reinforcement of friendly relations betweenstates.Ukraine is presented as a sovereign, independent and stabile state, that is irreversibly loyal to the principles of democracyand the rule of law, has a prior meaning for the Euro-Atlantic security. The relations between Ukraine and NATO started thedevelopment at the beginning of the 90-ties of the XX century and since then has become one of the most significant NATOpartnerships. In the course of 2010 in Ukraine there was a tendency of measures and events predominantly related with thereview of organizational principles of cooperation with NATO and the transformation of entities responsible for this process.Starting from 2014, because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Ukraine-NATO cooperation has been intensified in a set ofcritical fields. Also, a step that has not been less significant was the event that on 12 of June 2020 the NATO North AtlanticCouncil has approved the decision on granting our state the status of a NATO partner-nation with extended capabilities.

МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ПЕРВИЧНОЙ ЭМИССИЙ АКЦИЙ АКЦИОНЕРНОГО ОБЩЕСТВА

At present, in contrast to lending and investment services, models for raising additional capital for a company by issuing shares and then placing them on the securities market are becoming more popular. This article discusses the model of issuing shares for a joint-stock company (JSC) and the subsequent purchase of their traders. The model has a two-level hierarchical structure, where the leading party is the JSC, and the lead, in turn, is the shareholders. The company determines the number of shares and their issue price. Depending on the total capitalization of the company and the nominal share price, the company’s revaluation coefficient (P/BV) is formed. This coefficient affects the General mood of shareholders in the market, who use the sale or purchase of shares to change the total capitalization of the company. The price for the current time period consists of the algebraic sum of the price for the previous time period and the total capitalization, thus, through changes in the total turnover of funds, shareholders are able to influence the share price. The main income for a shareholder is the difference between the purchase and sale of shares, as well as the payment of its dividends. For the company, the task is to maximize profits by buying shares on the stock exchange, as well as minimize losses when selling them. After describing the target functions and applying the simulation method, the optimal issue price for a fixed number of shares was found for the company. Unfortunately, the market does not lend itself to accurate forecasts due to the large influence of the human factor. Very often, shareholders can act against the rational and most profitable strategy. Despite this, this model will help to approximate the behavior of players in the stock market in subsequent development, thereby facilitating the study of price movements on the stock exchange.

Groundwater level prediction using genetic programming: the importance of precipitation data and weather station location on model accuracy

Groundwater (GW) level prediction is important for effective GW resource management. It is hypothesized that using precipitation data in GW level modelling will increase the overall accuracy of the results and that the distance of the observation well to the weather station (where precipitation data are obtained) will affect the model outcome. Here, genetic programming (GP) was used to predict GW level fluctuation in multiple observation wells under three scenarios to test these hypotheses. In Scenario 1, GW level and precipitation data were used as input data. Scenarios 2 only had GW level data as inputs to the model, and in Scenarios 3, only precipitation data were used as inputs. Long-term GW level time series data covering a period of 8 years were used to train and test the GP model. Further, to examine the effect of data from previous time periods on the accuracy of GW level prediction, 12 models with input data up to 12 months prior to the current period were investigated. Model performance was evaluated using two criteria, coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Results show that when predicting GW levels through GP, using GW level and precipitation data together (Scenario 1) produces results with higher accuracy compared to only using GW level (Scenario 2) or precipitation data (Scenario 3). Additionally, it was found that model accuracy was highest for the well located closest to the weather station (where precipitation data were collected), demonstrating the importance of weather station location in GW level prediction. It was also found that using data from up to six previous time periods (months) can be the most efficient combination of input data for accurate predictions. The findings from this study are useful for increasing the prediction accuracy of GW level variations in unconfined aquifers for sustainable GW resource management.

Impact of prairie fragment size on proportion of females and reproductive success of Lobelia spicata Lam., a gynodioecious species.

Due to ongoing human impacts, plant species increasingly occur in landscapes that are highly fragmented, with remaining natural habitats occupying small areas, resulting in populations that are smaller and more isolated than in previous time periods. This changed metapopulation structure is expected to have negative impacts on seed production. For example, the proportion of female plants within gynodioecious populations may be more volatile due to genetic drift in small populations associated with small habitat fragments, with concomitant impacts on seed production. My aims were to determine: (i) if variation in proportion of females is larger in smaller fragments; and (ii) if such changes in female frequency in small fragments result in reduced seed production. Thirty-two populations of Lobelia spicata Lam., a gynodioecious species, were surveyed in 2000, 2001 and 2009 in the tallgrass prairie region of Midwestern North America (Illinois and Indiana, USA). Data were collected for: proportion of female plants, total number of flowering plants (measure of population size), seed set per plant and prairie fragment size (another measure of population size). The proportion of females is more variable in smaller prairie fragments. Seed number per fruit decreases as the proportion of females increases in a population, but only significantly for female plants. The number of flowering plants is positively associated with fruit production for both genders. Populations within larger prairie fragments have higher seed production. The reproductive consequences of habitat fragmentation depend on the plant breeding system. While both sexes were negatively impacted, females were more adversely affected.

Between two empires: Baltic countries and Ukraine in 1918

In the article author discuss about prerequisites of proclamations and conditions of the early existence Baltic countries and Ukraine during WWI and in 1918. By this title I mean the permanent residence of the peoples of Baltic and Ukraine, and then corresponding states of these peoples between the German empire that was at the peak of its possibilities, thеn was in decline in result of the defeat in the World War I and the Russian/Soviet empire that was too in decline, but was in reconstructing in different type. In this connection I touch lately past by these peoples shortly. The main attention is directed toward the Baltic states, partly - to Ukraine. I think it is worth to point on the some common problems existing in these peoples during this and previous periods of time, particularly – level of modernization, tragedy and suffering brought by theWWI. Peace and the land question were the most wanted aspirations of the masses. I write about the ways of gaining of independence in these countries in 1918 and reactions of both empires on it. In article I find out processes that led to formation of the national governments and the Soviet republics in these countries, their wars supported by the Soviet Russia or Germany.It may be note that in Estonia the social preconditions for independence was more favorable then in Latvia and Lithuania, Ukraine. In Ukraine idea of the own state was proclaimed both in its Western part, under Austria-Hungarian rule and in its bigger East in Russia empire earlier thаn in Baltic nations. It seems that Ukraine was in better position to gain independence then Baltic peoples in 1918. Ukrainians concluded peaceful treaty with Germany. The former’ troops helped put off the Bolsheviks out the country. For the Baltic peoples and national movements the Germans were social oppressors and politically dominated for centuries, during WWI Germany was occupant majority of their territories. But level of national conscious here was higher than in Ukraine. The principal difference in Baltic and Ukrainian affairs was the importance for Russian Bolsheviks and the Whites of Ukraine in economic, political, cultural meaning.

Do Analysts Cater to Investor Information Demand?

We extend the literature by investigating whether analysts cater their coverage to investor information demand. Results suggest that analysts’ coverage is contemporaneously positively associated with investor information demand, and negatively associated with the previous time periods information demand. However, the magnitude of the contemporaneous positive association is greater than the magnitude of the proceeding negative association. This implies analyst following significantly increases on firms which have more retail and institutional information demand, but partially revert their coverage after the information demand shock. Furthermore, results suggest that analysts cater their coverage more towards institutional investors, relative to retail investors. These results suggest that analysts focus their coverage on companies that have garnered the most interest from investors, thus potentially maximizing the utility of the information the analyst disseminates.

Imputing missing time-dependent covariate values for the discrete time Cox model.

We describe a procedure for imputing missing values of time-dependent covariates in a discrete time Cox model using the chained equations method. The procedure multiply imputes the missing values for each time-period in a time-sequential manner, using covariates from the current and previous time-periods as well as the survival outcome. The form of the outcome variable used in the imputation model depends on the functional form of the time-dependent covariate(s) and differs from the case of Cox regression with only baseline covariates. This time-sequential approach provides an approximation to a fully conditional approach. We illustrate the procedure with data on diabetics, evaluating the association of their glucose control with the risk of selected cancers. Using simulations we show that the suggested estimator performed well (in terms of bias and coverage) for completely missing at random, missing at random and moderate non-missing-at-random patterns. However, for very strong non-missing-at-random patterns, the estimator was seriously biased and the coverage was too low. The procedure can be implemented using multiple imputation with the Fully conditional Specification (FCS) method (MI procedure in SAS with FCS statement or similar packages in other software, e.g. MICE in R). For use with event times on a continuous scale, the events would need to be grouped into time-intervals.

Space-time cluster detection with cross-space-time relative risk functions

ABSTRACTSpace-time kernel density estimation (STKDE) commonly is used for space-time cluster detection. But, this technique might be limited because it does not take into account an underlying population at risk for observed events. A space-time relative risk function (STRRF) can help overcome this limitation by allowing a comparison of each kernel density of observations with that of controls. This paper proposes a cross-STRRF to identify spatio-temporal locations that experience statistically significant changes in their density of events. With events organized in a space-time voxel structure, the cross-STRRF evaluates space-time patterns by comparing event occurrences at a spatial location in a previous time period with ones in its future as well as with its spatial neighbors in its contemporaneous time period. The test statistics of the cross-STRRF values in each voxel are obtained with a permutation test in which cases and controls are shuffled within each time period to maintain the space-time envelope of events. An application to assault crime incidents in the city of Plano, Texas between 2008 and 2012 illustrates that the cross-STRRF and its significance test results emphasize spatio-temporal changes in event density rather than constantly focusing on high density regions, which STKDE does.

Benchmarking Cognitive Abilities of the Brain with the Event of Losing the Character in Computer Games

Most computer game players have experienced the sensation of temporarily losing their character in a given gameplay situation when they cannot control the character, simply because they temporarily cannot see it. The main reasons for this sensation may be due to the interplay of the following factors: (1) the visual complexity of the game is unexpectedly increased compared with the previous time period as more and more game objects and effects are rendered on the display; (2) and/or the game is lagging; (3) and finally, it is also possible that the players don’t have sufficient experience with controlling the character. This paper focuses on the first reason. We have developed a benchmark program which allows its user to experience the sensation of losing character. While the user can still control the character quite well, the benchmark program will increase the visual complexity of the display. Conversely, if the user loses the character then the program will decrease the complexity until the user finds the character again, and so on. The complexity is measured based on the number of changed pixels between two consecutive display images. Our measurements show that the average of bit per second values of losing and finding pairs describes the user well. The final goal of this research is to further develop our benchmark to a standard psychological test.

Enhancing Drug Overdose Alerts with Spatial Visualization

ObjectiveThis poster presentation shares Indiana’s approach of alerting local health departments (LHDs) with near real-time drug overdose data and how this process has been enhanced through mapping and analysis with a geographic information system (GIS).IntroductionSince 2008, drug overdose deaths exceeded the number of motor vehicle traffic-related deaths in Indiana, and the gap continues to widen1. While federal funding opportunities are available for states, it often takes years for best practices to be developed, shared, and published. Similarly, local health departments (LHDs) may experience lengthy delays to receive finalized county health statistics.Indiana collects and stores syndromic emergency department data in the Public Health Emergency Surveillance System (PHESS) and uses the Electronic Surveillance System for the Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics version 1.21 (ESSENCE) to monitor public health events and trends. In July 2017, the Indiana Overdose Surveillance Team (IOST) developed a standard process for monitoring and alerting local health partners of increases in drug overdoses captured in ESSENCE at the county level. ISDH is enhancing these alerts by mapping the data in GIS and providing spatiotemporal data to LHDs to inform more targeted intervention and prevention efforts.MethodsThe IOST monitors drug overdoses statewide by analyzing daily queries from ESSENCE and sending email alerts to LHDs that are experiencing a statistically significant increase in suspected overdose activity at a hospital or county level. The IOST then requests that LHDs complete an overdose response feedback survey describing their actions after receiving an overdose alert.The IOST GIS analyst has enhanced overdose alerts by utilizing daily emergency department data queries from the PHESS database based on chief complaint and diagnosis text. Python™ and ArcGIS™ are used to deduplicate and geocode records, calculate the rate of cases within a hexagonal grid, and calculate the kernel density of case counts to show patterns at the neighborhood level. Comparisons to previous time periods are also calculated. Temporal and spatial scales of analysis are flexible, but 7 days and 30 days are used most often. Results are mapped in an HTML file using an open source Python package for dissemination to LHDs.ResultsBetween July 26, 2017, and Sept. 4, 2018, the IOST sent 89 suspected overdose alerts to LHDs. Alerts were sent to 45 different LHDs, of which 22 received multiple alerts (range: 1-9 repeat alerts). LHDs were requested to complete the survey on their initial alert, and a total of 31 jurisdictions completed this survey (31/45 = 69%). The majority of the LHD respondents (27/31 = 87%) wanted to continue receiving overdose alert emails.Our enhanced spatial analysis project has mapped more than 500 cases per week. Geocoding was successful for approximately 87% of the addresses received through PHESS. Neighborhoods in urban areas with higher counts have been identified, though variability from week to week is high. Areas of high overdose rates that cross county boundaries have also been detected, which would not have been possible using ESSENCE alone.ConclusionsNotifying LHDs of near real-time drug overdose trends is a catalyst for drug overdose planning and response efforts in Indiana. GIS mapping of the data provides an easy way for LHDs to view and share spatial trends with their local planning partners and identify community intervention strategies that can reduce drug overdose rates and improve outcomes for overdose survivors.References1 Overdose Prevention [Internet]. Indianapolis: Indiana State Department of Health; 2017. Indiana Special Emphasis Report: Drug Overdose Deaths 1999-2015; August 2017. [cited 2017 Sept 25]. Available from: http://www.in.gov/isdh/files/2017_SER_Drug_Deaths_Indiana.pdf

Forecasting seismic activity rates in northwest Himalaya through multivariate autoregressive forecast of seismicity algorithm

In this study, a model based on multivariate autoregressive forecast of seismicity (MARFS) algorithm is adopted to forecast seismic activity rates in northwest Himalaya, using the compiled homogenized moment magnitude (MW) based catalogue. For this purpose, each source zone delineated by Yadav et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 170:283–295, 2012) is divided into a spatial grid interval of 0.5° × 0.5° while the entire catalogue span (1975–2010) is segregated into six time periods/grids to estimate seismic activity rates spatially and temporally. These seismic activity rates which are estimated from spatial density map of hypocenters exhibit high values in Chaman Fault (Zone 1), Hindukush-Pamir region (Zone 3) and the mega thrust systems, i.e., Main Central Thrust, Main Boundary Thrust and Himalayan Frontal Thrust (Zone 4). Then, the seismic activity rates during 2011–2016 could be forecasted by extrapolating (through auto-regression procedure) those observed for previous time periods. The forecast seismic activity rates are estimated within the values of 0 and 7.57 with high values primarily observed in Hindukush-Pamir region of Zone 3 and the gently north-dipping thrust fault systems (Main Central Thrust, Main Boundary Thrust, Himalayan Frontal Thrust) of Zone 4. Finally, the associated area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics graph suggests the superiority of forecasting model with respect to random prediction, whereas results of the data-consistency test, i.e., N test of our model, exhibit consistency in between the observed and simulated likelihoods. Moreover, the hypothetical t test performed in between the spatial grids of forecast seismic activity rates and observed seismic activity rates confirms that the former is consistent with the latter.