Previous Hurricane Research Articles

User-Responsive Diagnostic Forecast Evaluation Approaches: Application to Tropical Cyclone Predictions

Abstract The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP; renamed the “Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program” in 2017) was established by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2007 with a goal of improving tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity predictions. A major focus of HFIP has been to increase the quality of guidance products for these parameters that are available to forecasters at the National Weather Service National Hurricane Center (NWS/NHC). One HFIP effort involved the demonstration of an operational decision process, named Stream 1.5, in which promising experimental versions of numerical weather prediction models were selected for TC forecast guidance. The selection occurred every year from 2010 to 2014 in the period preceding the hurricane season (defined as August–October), and was based on an extensive verification exercise of retrospective TC forecasts from candidate experimental models run over previous hurricane seasons. As part of this process, user-responsive verification questions were identified via discussions between NHC staff and forecast verification experts, with additional questions considered each year. A suite of statistically meaningful verification approaches consisting of traditional and innovative methods was developed to respond to these questions. Two examples of the application of the Stream 1.5 evaluations are presented, and the benefits of this approach are discussed. These benefits include the ability to provide information to forecasters and others that is relevant for their decision-making processes, via the selection of models that meet forecast quality standards and are meaningful for demonstration to forecasters in the subsequent hurricane season; clarification of user-responsive strengths and weaknesses of the selected models; and identification of paths to model improvement. Significance Statement The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) tropical cyclone (TC) forecast evaluation effort led to innovations in TC predictions as well as new capabilities to provide more meaningful and comprehensive information about model performance to forecast users. Such an effort—to clearly specify the needs of forecasters and clarify how forecast improvements should be measured in a “user-oriented” framework—is rare. This project provides a template for one approach to achieving that goal.

Examining the effects of cumulative environmental stressors on Gulf Coast child and adolescent health.

This study examines how community-level cumulative environmental stress affects child and adolescent emotional distress and chronic health conditions both directly and indirectly through stressors at the household, family, and individual levels. Data comes from the Women and their Children's Health (WaTCH) Study, which sought to understand the health implications of exposure to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DHOS) among a cohort of 596 mothers with children ages 10 to 17 in southeastern Louisiana. Community-level environmental stress was measured using a newly developed geospatial index. Household-level stressors included previous hurricane impacts, impacts of DHOS, degree of financial difficulty, and degree of housing physical decay. Family stressors included maternal depression, self-rated physical health, and degree of parenting stress. Child stress was based on perceived stress; child mental health was based on serious emotional disturbance; and child physical health was based on diagnosis of chronic illness. Structural equation modeling used weighted least squares means and variance and theta parameterization. Results showed a significant negative direct path between community-level cumulative environmental stress and child/adolescent serious emotional disturbance and chronic illness. However, the indirect relationship through household, family, and individual-level stressors was significant and positive for both child/adolescent serious emotional disturbance and chronic illness. These findings point to the centrality of the household and family in determining child and adolescent physical and mental health outcomes in communities exposed to frequent disasters and ongoing environmental stressors.

Examining Knowledge of US DOE Best Practices for Disaster Planning Among Five Private Christian K–12 School Administrators After a Hurricane: A Multi-Case Study

Destruction wrought by hurricanes can physically impact schools, houses, and businesses, all of which can delay or prevent recovery within communities. This study investigated the awareness among five private K–12 Christian administrators of the United States Department of Education (USDOE) guidelines for developing emergency operation plans (EOPs) for effective response and recovery. The five administrators were selected from a pool of 12 whose schools sustained on-site damage during the 2017 hurricane season. Their interview responses supported evidence of general knowledge of USDOE guidelines. Notably, veteran administrators reported that their previous hurricane response experience was more useful than their knowledge of government EOP guidelines.

Media exposure, threat processing, and mitigation behaviors in Gulf Coast residents facing the co-occurring threats of COVID-19 and hurricanes.

The 2020 hurricane season threatened millions of Americans concurrently grappling with COVID-19. Processes guiding individual-level mitigation for these conceptually distinct threats, one novel and chronic (COVID-19), the other familiar and episodic (hurricanes), are unknown. Theories of health protective behaviors suggest that inputs from external stimuli (e.g., traditional and social media) lead to threat processing, including perceived efficacy (self- and response) and perceived threat (susceptibility and severity), guiding mitigation behavior. We surveyed a representative sample of Florida and Texas residents (N =1846) between April 14, 2020 and April 27, 2020; many had previous hurricane exposure; all were previously assessed between September 8, 2017 and September 11, 2017. Using preregistered analyses, two generalized structural equation models tested direct and indirect effects of media exposure (traditional media, social media) on self-reported (1) COVID-19 mitigation (handwashing, mask-wearing, social distancing) and (2) hurricane mitigation (preparation behaviors), as mediated through perceived efficacy (self- and response) and perceived threat (susceptibility and severity). Self-efficacy and response efficacy were associated with social distancing (p = .002), handwashing, mask-wearing, and hurricane preparation (ps<0.001). Perceived susceptibility was positively associated with social distancing (p =0.017) and hurricane preparation (p < 0.001). Perceived severity was positively associated with social distancing (p < 0.001). Traditional media exhibited indirect effects on COVID-19 mitigation through increased response efficacy (ps< 0.05), and to a lesser extent self-efficacy (p < 0.05), and on hurricane preparation through increased self-efficacy and response efficacy and perceived susceptibility (ps< 0.05). Social media did not exhibit indirect effects on COVID-19 or hurricane mitigation. Communications targeting efficacy and susceptibility may encourage mitigation behavior; research should explore how social media campaigns can more effectively target threat processing, guiding protective actions.

Responding to Repeated Disasters: Time to Recovery in Public Health Workers.

In times of repeated disaster events, including natural disasters and pandemics, public health workers must recover rapidly to respond to subsequent events. Understanding predictors of time to recovery and developing predictive models of time to recovery can aid planning and management. We examined 681 public health workers (21-72 y, M(standard deviation [SD]) = 48.25(10.15); 79% female) 1 mo before (T1) and 9 mo after (T2) the 2005 hurricane season. Demographics, trauma history, social support, time to recover from previous hurricane season, and predisaster work productivity were assessed at T1. T2 assessed previous disaster work, initial emotional response, and personal hurricane injury/damage. The primary outcome was time to recover from the most recent hurricane event. Multivariate analyses found that less support (T1; odds ratio [OR] = .74[95% confidence interval [CI] = .60-.92]), longer previous recovery time (T1; OR = 5.22[95%CI = 3.01-9.08]), lower predisaster work productivity (T1; OR = 1.98[95%CI = 1.08-3.61]), disaster-related personal injury/damage (T2; OR = 3.08[95%CI = 1.70-5.58]), and initial emotional response (T2; OR = 1.71[95%CI = 1.34-2.19]) were associated with longer recovery time (T2). Recovery time was adversely affected in disaster responders with a history of longer recovery time, personal injury/damage, lower work productivity following prior hurricanes, and initial emotional response, whereas responders with social support had shorter recovery time. Predictors of recovery time should be a focus for disaster preparedness planners.

Assessing international students’ vulnerability to hurricanes: University of Florida case study

Disaster research concerning the behavior of international students at U.S. institutions of higher education is very limited. The main objective of our study is to develop new knowledge about international student's behavior at U.S. institutions of higher education in relation to hurricanes in order to enhance the overall campus crisis management. A mix of quantitative and qualitative methods was used to collect data from University of Florida (UF) main campus in Gainesville, Florida; UF administrative leaders committed to international students' safety in emergencies were interviewed. In addition, 120 international students at UF were surveyed. The data analysis sought to provide insights into one main research question: In a disaster-context, what challenges do international students face that contribute to their vulnerability at UF main campus? Three main groups of challenges were found; Institutional challenges, Students' well-being and daily challenges, and Disaster preparedness challenges. Moreover, considerable variations in students' behavior were found among some demographics, including gender, ethnicity, housing, degree level, and previous hurricane experience. The research findings shed a light on a research area that has been under-investigated, and contribute to an increased understanding of international students' vulnerabilities at U.S. institutions of higher education.

The Aftermath of IrMaria in the U.S. Virgin Islands: Temporal Patterns of Looting, Burglaries, and Community Solidarity

This study investigates the aftermath of Hurricanes Irma and Maria (IrMaria) in the U.S. Virgin Islands and the dichotomy between media reports depicting mass looting and chaos with statements by public officials disputing these claims. Perceptions on post-hurricane criminality can influence sheltering and evacuation behavior as well as frame public policy. The authors review the post-disaster collective behavior literature and implement a mixed-methods approach to examine the veracity of these looting claims. Post-disaster interviews with impacted households, business owners, and public servants reveal a pro-social environment with strong community solidarity in the immediate aftermath of IrMaria. Sheltering behavior was not influenced by fears of looting, but was influenced by previous hurricane false alarms. Regression of available FBI-UCR data shows the rate of burglary has declined across the islands since 2010. An aggregate-level report by the U.S. Virgin Islands Police Department shows a decline in all crimes throughout the US territory compared to the fiscal year before IrMaria, but a four percent increase in burglary incidents. The comparable increase in incidents occurred within four months of IrMaria's landfall, followed by a precipitous decrease in incidents. This finding aligns with theoretical calls to consider temporal phases and patterns of post-disaster crime. Considering the delayed federal response and the decrease in all other crimes for the fiscal year, the authors attribute the momentary increase in burglary incidents as a misnomer and are likely survival appropriating acts that decreased with burgeoning humanitarian assistance. This study recommends disaster public policy and recovery efforts prioritize the unmet needs of hurricane survivors and greater scrutiny of the constraints of US colonialism that impede disaster resilience. Additionally, the paper highlights other concerns raised by participants during fieldwork interviews and emphasizes the necessity and value of ethical post-disaster qualitative research.

Modeling social network influence on hurricane evacuation decision consistency and sharing capacity

Evacuations in major disasters such as hurricanes involve complex decision-making and depend on several interrelated factors. Mass evacuation created traffic gridlocks with hours of added travel time in previous hurricane evacuations. To leverage this, shared mobility as an alternative evacuation strategy can ensure compliance to evacuation orders. Besides, previous evacuation studies examined evacuation decision-making for a given hurricane, however the empirical literature is inconclusive of what governs evacuation decision consistency of previous (evacuated or not) and future (will evacuate or not) hurricanes. As such, the purpose of this study is to explore the influence of personal social networks and day-to-day sharing activity on hurricane evacuation decision consistency and shared evacuation capacity (number of people with whom one will evacuate). By adopting a Personal Network Research Design (PNRD) framework and conducting an online survey of south Florida residents, the evacuation decision consistency of people is modeled using multinomial logistic regression method. An ego-centric social network analysis is also conducted which focuses on the survey respondents (egos) and the people in their close contacts (alters). Shared evacuation capacity is modeled using zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) approach. Tobit regression techniques are used to estimate the influence of day-to-day joint activities on shared evacuation decisions. Results showed that these variables are influenced by similarity in race, religion, marital status, bike ownership, use of social media and day-to-day shared activity. The age and income of people also significantly affect these decisions. The results will help in developing decision support frameworks for evacuation management applications and encourage emergency planners to promote shared evacuations in vulnerable communities.

Widespread mangrove damage resulting from the 2017 Atlantic mega hurricane season

Comprised of 17 named tropical storms, 6 of which were major hurricanes, the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season ranked as one of the most damaging and costly hurricane seasons on record. In addition to socio-economic impacts, many previous studies have shown that important coastal ecosystems like mangroves are shaped by severe storms. However, little is known about how the cumulative effects of storms over entire hurricane seasons affect mangroves across large regions. We used satellite imagery from the entire Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico region to show that 2017 resulted in disproportionate mangrove damage compared to baseline responses over the previous 8 years. Specifically, we observed 30 times more mangrove damage, via a reduction in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), during 2017 compared to any of the eight previous hurricane seasons, and most (72%) of this damage persisted throughout the 7 month post-hurricane season period as indicated by no NDVI recovery. Furthermore, wind speed, rainfall, and canopy height data showed that mangrove damage primarily resulted from high maximum wind speeds, but flooding (cumulative rainfall), previous storm history, and mangrove structure (canopy height) were also important predictors of damage. While mangroves are known to be resilient to hurricane impacts, our results suggest that increasingly frequent mega-hurricane seasons in the Caribbean region will dramatically alter mangrove disturbance dynamics.

Hurricane exposure and personality development.

We evaluated the role of natural disaster adversity on personality development in the wake of a hurricane, and the moderating role of previous hurricane exposure. We used a two-wave longitudinal design and a diverse sample of emerging adults (n=691; mean age=22years; 72% females, 27% European American, 29% Latino, 23% Asian American, 15% African American, 6% Multiracial/Other) who were exposed to one of the most damaging hurricanes on record, though to differing degrees. Immediately after the hurricane, we assessed objective individual-level hurricane exposure, previous exposure to hurricanes, demographics, socioeconomic status, and Big Five personality traits. One year later, we re-assessed Big Five personality traits. Using latent change models, we found significant individual differences both in participants' initial levels of personality traits at baseline, as well as in their developmental patterns of change in the year following the hurricane. However, there was no evidence of mean-level change. Moreover, neither hurricane exposure level, nor its interaction with previous exposure showed statistically significant associations with the rates of change in any personality trait. The present findings support a stability account, whereby individuals largely maintain their personality dispositions following an adverse life event, in this case a hurricane.

Evacuation Departure Timing during Hurricane Matthew

AbstractThis study investigates evacuation behaviors associated with Hurricane Matthew in October of 2016. It assesses factors influencing evacuation decisions and evacuation departure times for Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina from an online survey of respondents. Approximately 62% of the Florida sample, 77% of the Georgia sample, and 67% of the South Carolina sample evacuated. Logistic regression analysis of the departures in the overall time period identified variability in evacuation timing, primarily dependent on prior experience, receipt of an evacuation order, and talking with others about the evacuation order. However, using four logistic regressions to analyze differences in departure times by day shows that the only significant variable across the three main days of evacuation was our proxy variable for evacuation-order times. Depending on the day, other variables of interest include number of household vehicles, previous hurricane experience, and receipt of an evacuation order. Descriptive results show that many variables are considered in the decision to evacuate, but results from subsequent analyses, and respondents’ comments about their experiences, highlight that evacuation orders are the primary triggering variable for when residents left.

Perceptions of Hurricane-Track Forecasts in the United States

AbstractHurricanes Isaac (2012), Harvey (2017), and Irma (2017) were storms with different geophysical characteristics and track forecast consistencies. Despite the differences, common themes emerged from the perception of track forecasts from evacuees for each storm. Surveys with a mixture of closed and open-ended responses were conducted during the evacuations of each storm while the storm characteristics and decision-making were fresh in the minds of evacuees. Track perception accuracy for each evacuee was quantified by taking the difference between three metrics: perceived track and official track (PT − OT), perceived track and forecast track (PT − FT), and home location and perceived track (HL − PT). Evacuees from Hurricanes Isaac and Harvey displayed a tendency to perceive hurricane tracks as being closer to their home locations than what was forecast to occur and what actually occurred. The large sample collected for Hurricane Irma provided a chance to statistically verify some of the hypotheses generated from Isaac and Harvey. Results from Hurricane Irma confirmed that evacuees expected a storm to be closer to their home locations after controlling for regional influences. Furthermore, participants with greater previous hurricane experience perceived a track as being closer to their home locations, and participants residing in zip codes corresponding with nonmandatory evacuation zones also perceived tracks as being closer to their home locations. These findings suggest that most evacuees from hurricanes in the United States appear to perceive storms as being closer to their home locations than they are and overestimate wind speeds at their homes, thus overestimating the true danger from landfalling hurricanes in many storms.

Spatial Data modelling to study and improve waste management after hurricanes. The case of French West Indies

Abstract. In the past decades, catastrophic natural disasters such as storms and hurricanes have impacted millions of people around the world: around 33 million of people are affected per year between 2007 and 2016 (Bellow and Wallemacq, 2018). For instance, hurricane Katrina (USA, 2015) caused catastrophic damage from central Florida to Eastern Texas, at least 1836 people died and total property damage was estimated at 125 billion dollars. Furthermore, climate change is likely to increase frequency of most intense categories of hurricanes in some parts of the world and is expected to increase sea levels, leading to more destructive storm surges when hurricanes occur (IPCC, 2013). In the same time, growing populations and rising incomes are expected to place more people and property in harm’s way.Depending on their nature and severity, disasters can create large volumes of debris and waste (Brown et al., 2011). In some cases, debris volume from a single event were the equivalent of 5–15 times the annual waste generation rates of the affected community (Reinhart and McCreanor, 1999). Often, the debris removal process takes months or even years to treated (Pramudita et al., 2014). In France, storm Xynthia (2010) waste generation was equivalent to about 12 normal years (CEPRI, 2012). Thus, waste can overwhelm existing solid management facilities and the presence of disaster waste impacts almost every aspect of an emergency response and recovery effort (Brown et al., 2011). For instance, in the immediate response, disaster debris can cause road blockages. Moreover, if poorly managed, the waste can have significant environmental and public health impacts (Brown et al., 2011), such as water and air pollution.In this paper we present the Depos data modelling (named Depos-model) to improve the management of debris and waste after hurricanes. In the Depos project, funded by the French research agency (ANR), we intend to understand the process of waste management thanks to testimonies on previous hurricanes and to propose a digital modelling of waste management. In the following we do not distinguish debris and waste. The case study is the French west Indies (composed of different territories including the Guadeloupe and Martinique) and the very first island to study is the Island of Saint Martin in the Caribbean Sea where Irma hurricane (2017) had huge impact. This hurricane was the most powerful ever recorded hurricane in Atlantic with sustainable winds of nearly 300 km/h, with a gust to 360 km/h. The research work began with a study from the association Robin des Bois to describe and estimate waste after Irma on Saint Martin. These experts were questioned to identify the key entities and actors involved in hurricane waste management. We set a first data modelling that will be questioned and improved during the next 2 years. The depos-model should be able 1- to replay what occurred during a previous hurricane, 2- to simulate different situations on fictive hurricanes and hopefully 3- to be used after a future hurricane to improve waste management. In this paper we do not include the actors although they are key elements in the modelling. To introduce the data model, we decomposed it in different part. We first present the waste (figure 1) before presenting the transportation of waste to waste treatment areas (figure 3).

Caring for vulnerable medical populations: Lessons learned from Hurricane Harvey (and every other hurricane before it)

Mass care on an epic scale — we thought we had seen it all during Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Ike and then Sandy. However, catastrophic scales reached a new level during Hurricane Harvey. How did the response and recovery to Harvey differ from previous hurricane events and what lessons were (and were not) learned? This paper examines the impact on the delivery of medical care to the vulnerable populations in Harvey’s path.

Previous hurricane evacuation decisions and future evacuation intentions among residents of southeast Louisiana

Population evacuation is an important component of emergency management planning for a variety of hazards, especially hurricanes and tropical storms that threaten coastal communities. This study examined previous evacuation decisions and evacuation intentions across 13 southeast Louisiana coastal parishes. Overall, the results indicate that most people will evacuate from strong storms, especially when ordered to do so. Future evacuation intentions correlated with previous evacuation decisions and corresponded to storm strength and official evacuation orders. Demographic factors had varying effects on behavior and intentions, with gender and race having the most consistent effects. The effects of income, education, homeownership, and housing type varied by storm strength and had different effects for intentions than previous behaviors. Previous flooding and wind damage had minimal effects on evacuation intentions. Risk perception, especially perception of the safety of one's own home, had strong effects on evacuation intentions. Qualitative results support the quantitative findings showing that people continue to rely on storm strength, especially Category or wind speed, as an indicator of risk and that persons who would not evacuate felt their homes were safe or had jobs that required them to report for duty. The results call for more research into how predictors of actual behaviors and intentions vary even while behaviors and intentions are correlated and how individuals determine that their house is safe.

Homeowner purchase of insurance for hurricane-induced wind and flood damage

Understanding the circumstances under which homeowners will purchase insurance is critical to creating an effective insurance market for hurricane wind and flood loss. This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the subject through an analysis of survey data for homeowners in North Carolina. We develop separate mixed logit models for flood insurance and wind insurance purchasing decisions. The analysis uses stated preference data on the influence of premium and deductible to address some limitations of revealed preference data in which it is difficult to fully decouple effects of premium, deductible, risk, and coverage limit, and mandatory purchase requirements. The results for flood insurance and wind insurance are similar. We find evidence that the following are all significant and associated with higher probability of purchasing insurance—lower premium, lower deductible, more recent previous hurricane experience, location in a floodplain or closer to the coast, higher income, and younger homeowners. However, demand is relatively inelastic with respect to premium and deductible, and the willingness to pay for a $1 reduction in deductible varies throughout the population with some willing to pay more than $1, a behavioral anomaly. The recency of the last hurricane experience is more influential for homeowners who experienced damage than for homeowners who did not. Results suggest that insurance purchase and home retrofits are complements, not substitutes. Finally, the paper presents statistical models that can be used to predict insurance penetration rates for a region under different premium levels.

Effects of Stress Related to the Gulf Oil Spill on Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

To examine the interactive effects of stress related to the Gulf oil spill on mental health of children and adolescents on the Gulf Coast who were also affected by previous hurricanes. A prospective design, with n = 1,577 youth (aged 3-18 years), evaluated pre-oil spill and again post-oil spill for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms, previous hurricane exposure, and amount of oil spill stress. Stressors related to the spill were common and were associated with PTSD symptoms. Moreover, there was an interactive effect such that those with high preexisting PTSD symptoms, high previous hurricane exposure, and high oil spill stress had the most elevated post-oil spill PTSD symptoms. This study provides initial evidence linking stress related to the Gulf oil spill to youth mental health symptoms. The effects of the oil spill on youth mental health were most evident among those with cumulative risk.

Marine dependent livelihoods and resilience to environmental change: A case study of Anguilla

There is increasing concern over the consequences of environmental change for people and communities that depend on already fragile marine resources, given the mounting evidence of sustained over-exploitation and climate change impacts on marine systems. In order to explore the potential social resilience of marine-dependent livelihoods to environmental change, interviews with fishers and marine-based tourism operators in the Caribbean island of Anguilla were undertaken, to identify the impacts of hurricane events on marine livelihoods, the perceptions of resource-users and their potential adaptability to future change. For both sectors of resource-users, there is evidence that they have diversified livelihoods to achieve financial security, which may provide resilience to future climate related impacts or resource variability. In addition, specific behavioural changes that have been developed following previous hurricane events, e.g. removal of fish pots during hurricane months, or bringing boats to shore, indicate fishers' flexibility to changing conditions. However, strong personal and cultural attachment to occupations, particularly among fishers, may hinder resilience. Additionally, the reliance of all of these marine resource-users on the climate-dependent tourism industry may undermine their capacity to cope with future environmental change. Many of these problems are common throughout the Caribbean, as thousands of marine-dependent livelihoods are vulnerable to marine degradation and climate change impacts. Urgent attention is therefore required to support the development of adaptive, sustainable management of marine resources that may enhance resilience to environmental change.

Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike (2008) waves, forerunner, and storm surge

Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana‐Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied wave and surge response physics included: the capture of surge by the protruding Mississippi River Delta; the strong influence of wave radiation stress gradients on the Delta adjacent to the shelf break; the development of strong wind driven shore‐parallel currents and the associated geostrophic setup; the forced early rise of water in coastal bays and lakes facilitating inland surge penetration; the propagation of a free wave along the southern Texas shelf; shore‐normal peak wind‐driven surge; and resonant and reflected long waves across a wide continental shelf. Preexisting and rapidly deployed instrumentation provided the most comprehensive hurricane response data of any previous hurricane. More than 94 wave parameter time histories, 523 water level time histories, and 206 high water marks were collected throughout the Gulf in deep water, along the nearshore, and up to 65 km inland. Ike's highly varied physics were simulated using SWAN + ADCIRC, a tightly coupled wave and circulation model, on SL18TX33, a new unstructured mesh of the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and western Atlantic Ocean with high resolution of the Gulf's coastal floodplain from Alabama to the Texas‐Mexico border. A comprehensive validation was made of the model's ability to capture the varied physics in the system.

On the impact angle of Hurricane Sandy's New Jersey landfall

AbstractHurricane Sandy's track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record, one of the factors contributing to record‐setting peak‐water levels in parts of New Jersey and New York. To estimate the occurrence rate of Sandy‐like tracks, we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricanes. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long‐term average climate conditions, a hurricane of Sandy's intensity or greater (category 1+) makes NJ landfall at an angle at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy's at an average annual rate of 0.0014 yr–1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 years (95% confidence range 435 to 1429).