Prevalence Of Avian Influenza Viruses Research Articles

Avian influenza virus antibodies in Pacific Coast Red Knots (Calidris canutus roselaari).

Prevalence of avian influenza virus (AIV) antibodies in the western Atlantic subspecies of Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) is among the highest for any shorebird. To assess whether the frequency of detection of AIV antibodies is high for the species in general or restricted only to C. c. rufa, we sampled the northeastern Pacific Coast subspecies of Red Knot (Calidris canutus roselaari) breeding in northwestern Alaska. Antibodies were detected in 90% of adults and none of the chicks sampled. Viral shedding was not detected in adults or chicks. These results suggest a predisposition of Red Knots to AIV infection. High antibody titers to subtypes H3 and H4 were detected, whereas low to intermediate antibody levels were found for subtypes H10 and H11. These four subtypes have previously been detected in shorebirds at Delaware Bay (at the border of New Jersey and Delaware) and in waterfowl along the Pacific Coast of North America.

Investigation of avian influenza infections in wild birds, poultry and humans in Eastern Dongting Lake, China.

We investigated avian influenza infections in wild birds, poultry, and humans at Eastern Dongting Lake, China. We analyzed 6,621 environmental samples, including fresh fecal and water samples, from wild birds and domestic ducks that were collected from the Eastern Dongting Lake area from November 2011 to April 2012. We also conducted two cross-sectional serological studies in November 2011 and April 2012, with 1,050 serum samples collected from people exposed to wild birds and/or domestic ducks. Environmental samples were tested for the presence of avian influenza virus (AIV) using quantitative PCR assays and virus isolation techniques. Hemagglutination inhibition assays were used to detect antibodies against AIV H5N1, and microneutralization assays were used to confirm these results. Among the environmental samples from wild birds and domestic ducks, AIV prevalence was 5.19 and 5.32%, respectively. We isolated 39 and 5 AIVs from the fecal samples of wild birds and domestic ducks, respectively. Our analysis indicated 12 subtypes of AIV were present, suggesting that wild birds in the Eastern Dongting Lake area carried a diverse array of AIVs with low pathogenicity. We were unable to detect any antibodies against AIV H5N1 in humans, suggesting that human infection with H5N1 was rare in this region.

Potential Intercontinental Movement of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus into North America by Wild Birds: Application of a Rapid Assessment Framework

A critical question surrounding emergence of novel strains of avian influenza viruses (AIV) is the ability for wild migratory birds to translocate a complete (unreassorted whole genome) AIV intercontinentally. Virus translocation via migratory birds is suspected in outbreaks of highly pathogenic strain A(H5N1) in Asia, Africa and Europe. As a result, the potential intercontinental translocation of newly emerging AIV such as A(H7N9) from Eurasia to North America via migratory movements of birds remains a concern. An estimated 2.91 million aquatic birds move annually between Eurasia and North America with an estimated AIV prevalence as high as 32.2%. Here, we present a rapid assessment to address the likelihood of whole (unreassorted)-genome translocation of Eurasian strain AIV into North America. The scope of this assessment was limited specifically to assess the weight of evidence to support the movement of an unreassorted AIV intercontinentally by migratory aquatic birds. We developed a rapid assessment framework to assess the potential for intercontinental movement of avian influenzas by aquatic birds. This framework was iteratively reviewed by a multidisciplinary panel of scientific experts until a consensus was established. Our assessment framework identified four factors that may contribute to the potential for introduction of any AIV intercontinentally into North America by wild aquatic birds. These factors, in aggregate, provide a framework for evaluating the likelihood of new forms of AIV from Eurasia to be introduced by aquatic birds into North America. Based on our assessment, we determined that the potential for introduction of A(H7N9) into North America through aquatic migratory birds is possible, but the likelihood ranges from extremely low to low.

Avian Influenza Virus Prevalence in Migratory Waterfowl in the United States, 2007–2009

We analyzed 155,535 samples collected for surveillance of avian influenza viruses (AIVs), in the United States from 2007 to 2009, from migratory waterfowl (ducks, geese, and swans). The goal was to elucidate patterns of prevalence by flyway and functional groups to determine targets for future surveillance. Apparent prevalence of AIV was highest in the Pacific Flyway in 2007-2008 (14.2% and 14.1%, respectively), in the Mississippi Flyway in 2009 (16.8%), and lowest each year in the Atlantic Flyway (range, 7.3%-8.9%). Dabbling ducks had higher apparent prevalence of AIV (12.8%-18.8%) than diving ducks (3.9%-6.0%) or geese and swans (3.6%-3.9%). We observed highest apparent prevalence in hatch-year waterfowl (15.6%-18.9%). We further analyzed 117,738 of the 155,535 samples to test the hypothesis mallard (Anasplatyrhynchos) had highest prevalence of AIV. We compared apparent prevalence and odds ratios for seven species of ducks and one species of goose commonly collected across the United States. Mallards had highest apparent prevalence (15%-26%) in half of comparisons made, whereas American green- winged teal (Anas creeca, 12%-13%), blue-winged teal (Anas discors, 13%-23%), northern pintail (Anas acuta, 16%-22%), or northern shoveler (Anas clypeata, 15%) had higher apparent prevalence in the remaining comparisons. The results of our research can be used to tailor future surveillance that targets flyways, functional groups, and species with the highest probability of detecting AIV.

Surveillance of avian influenza viruses in Papua New Guinean poultry, June 2011 to April 2012

We investigated the circulation of avian influenza viruses in poultry populations throughout Papua New Guinea to assess the risk to the poultry industry and human health. Oropharyngeal swabs, cloacal swabs and serum were collected from 537 poultry from 14 provinces of Papua New Guinea over an 11-month period (June 2011 through April 2012). Virological and serological investigations were undertaken to determine the prevalence of avian influenza viruses. Neither influenza A viruses nor antibodies were detected in any of the samples. This study demonstrated that avian influenza viruses were not circulating at detectable levels in poultry populations in Papua New Guinea during the sampling period. However, avian influenza remains a significant risk to Papua New Guinea due to the close proximity of countries having previously reported highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses and the low biosecurity precautions associated with the rearing of most poultry populations in the country.

Surveillance of avian influenza virus type A in semi-scavenging ducks in Bangladesh

BackgroundDucks are the natural reservoir of influenza A virus and the central host for highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1), while domestic ducks rearing in semi-scavenging system could serve as re-assortment vessels for re-emerging new subtypes of influenza viruses between birds to human. Avian influenza virus (AIV) surveillance in Bangladesh has been passive, relying on poultry farmers to report suspected outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza. Here, the results of an active surveillance effort focusing on the semi-scavenging ducks are presented.ResultA total of 2100 cloacal swabs and 2100 sera were collected from semi-scavenging ducks from three wintering-sites of Bangladesh during three successive winter seasons, December through February in the years between 2009 and 2012. Virus isolation and identification were carried out from the cloacal swabs by virus propagation in embryonated hen eggs followed by amplification of viral RNA using Avian influenza virus (AIV) specific RT-PCR. The overall prevalence of avian influenza type A was 22.05% for swab samples and 39.76% ducks were sero-positive for avian influenza type A antibody. Extremely low sero-prevalence (0.09%) of AIV H5N1 was detected.ConclusionsBased on our surveillance results, we conclude that semi-scavenging ducks in Bangladesh might play important role in transmitting Avian Influenza virus (AIV) type A. However, the current risk of infection for humans from domestic ducks in Bangladesh is negligible. We believe that this relatively large dataset over three winters in Bangladesh might create a strong foundation for future studies of AIV prevalence, evolution, and ecology in wintering sites around the globe.

A 4-year study of avian influenza virus prevalence and subtype diversity in ducks of Newfoundland, Canada

The island of Newfoundland, Canada, is at the eastern edge of North America and has migratory bird connections with the continental mainland as well as across the North Atlantic Ocean. Here, we report a 4-year avian influenza virus (AIV) epidemiological study in ducks in the St. John's region of Newfoundland. The overall prevalence of AIV detection in ducks during this study was 7.2%, with American Black Ducks contributing the vast majority of the collected samples and the AIV positives. The juvenile ducks showed a significantly higher AIV detection rate (10.6%) compared with adults (3.4%). Seasonally, AIV prevalence rates were higher in the autumn (8.4%), but positives were still detected in the winter (4.6%). Preliminary serology tests showed a high incidence of previous AIV infection (20/38, 52.6%). A total of 43 viruses were characterized for their HA-NA or HA subtypes, which revealed a large diversity of AIV subtypes and little recurrence of subtypes from year to year. Investigation of the movement patterns of ducks in this region showed that it is a largely non-migratory duck population, which may contribute to the observed pattern of high AIV subtype turnover. Phylogenetic analysis of 4 H1N1 and one H5N4 AIVs showed these viruses were highly similar to other low pathogenic AIV sequences from waterfowl in North America and assigned all gene segments into American-avian clades. Notably, the H1N1 viruses, which were identified in consecutive years, possessed homologous genomes. Such detection of homologous AIV genomes across years is rare, but indicates the role of the environmental reservoir in viral perpetuation.

Molecular and epidemiological characterization of avian influenza viruses from gulls and dabbling ducks in Norway

BackgroundWild aquatic birds constitute the natural reservoir for avian influenza viruses (AIVs). Separate Eurasian and American AIV gene pools exist. Here, the prevalence and diversity of AIVs in gulls and dabbling ducks in Norway were described. The influence of host species and temporal changes on AIV prevalence was examined. Five AIVs from Norway, including three from common gull (Larus canus), were analyzed along with 10 available AIV genomes from gulls in Eurasia to search for evidence of intracontinental and intercontinental reassortment of gene segments encoding the internal viral proteins.MethodsSwabs collected from 2417 dabbling ducks and gulls in the south-west of Norway during five ordinary hunting seasons (August-December) in the period 2005–2010 were analyzed for presence of AIV. Multivariate linear regression was used to identify associations between AIV prevalence, host species and sampling time. Five AIVs from mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) (H3N8, H9N2) and common gull (H6N8, H13N2, H16N3) were full-length characterized and phylogenetically analyzed together with GenBank reference sequences.ResultsLow pathogenic AIVs were detected in 15.5% (CI: 14.1–17.0) of the samples. The overall AIV prevalence was lower in December compared to that found in August to November (p = 0.003). AIV was detected in 18.7% (CI: 16.8–20.6) of the dabbling ducks. A high AIV prevalence of 7.8% (CI; 5.9–10.0) was found in gulls. A similar temporal pattern in AIV prevalence was found in both bird groups. Thirteen hemagglutinin and eight neuraminidase subtypes were detected. No evidence of intercontinental reassortment was found. Eurasian avian (non H13 and H16) PB2 or PA genes were identified in five reference Eurasian gull (H13 and H16) AIV genomes from GenBank. The NA gene from the Norwegian H13N2 gull isolate was of Eurasian avian origin.ConclusionsThe similar temporal pattern in AIV prevalence found in dabbling ducks and gulls, the relatively high virus prevalence detected in gulls and the evidence of intracontinental reassortment in AIVs from gulls indicate that gulls that interact with dabbling ducks are likely to be mixing vessels for AIVs from waterfowl and gulls. Our results support that intercontinental reassortment is rare in AIVs from gulls in Eurasia.

Avian Influenza Virus Surveillance in Wild Birds in Georgia: 2009–2011

The Caucasus, at the border of Europe and Asia, is important for migration and over-wintering of wild waterbirds. Three flyways, the Central Asian, East Africa-West Asia, and Mediterranean/Black Sea flyways, converge in the Caucasus region. Thus, the Caucasus region might act as a migratory bridge for influenza virus transmission when birds aggregate in high concentrations in the post-breeding, migrating and overwintering periods. Since August 2009, we have established a surveillance network for influenza viruses in wild birds, using five sample areas geographically spread throughout suitable habitats in both eastern and western Georgia. We took paired tracheal and cloacal swabs and fresh feces samples. We collected 8343 swabs from 76 species belonging to 17 families in 11 orders of birds, of which 84 were real-time RT-PCR positive for avian influenza virus (AIV). No highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV) H5 or H7 viruses were detected. The overall AIV prevalence was 1.6%. We observed peak prevalence in large gulls during the autumn migration (5.3–9.8%), but peak prevalence in Black-headed Gulls in spring (4.2–13%). In ducks, we observed increased AIV prevalence during the autumn post-moult aggregations and migration stop-over period (6.3%) but at lower levels to those observed in other more northerly post-moult areas in Eurasia. We observed another prevalence peak in the overwintering period (0.14–5.9%). Serological and virological monitoring of a breeding colony of Armenian Gulls showed that adult birds were seropositive on arrival at the breeding colony, but juveniles remained serologically and virologically negative for AIV throughout their time on the breeding grounds, in contrast to gull AIV data from other geographic regions. We show that close phylogenetic relatives of viruses isolated in Georgia are sourced from a wide geographic area throughout Western and Central Eurasia, and from areas that are represented by multiple different flyways, likely linking different host sub-populations.

Prevalence of Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus in One Live Bird Market in Eastern China from 2002–2011

The role of live bird markets (LBMs) in the perpetuation of avian influenza virus (AIV) has been well studied worldwide; however, there is a paucity of information on the prevalence of different AIV subtypes in LBMs in Eastern China. In this study, long-term surveillance was conducted to investigate the prevalence of AIV in chickens, ducks, and geese in an LBM in Yangzhou city, Jiangsu province, Eastern China, between July 2002 and May 2011. The study used primary virus isolation and subtype-specific reverse-transcription-PCR. In total, 23 different HA-NA subtype combinations were detected, mainly in domestic ducks. This result suggests that domestic ducks play a more important role in LBMs in Eastern China.

Anticipating the Prevalence of Avian Influenza Subtypes H9 and H5 in Live-Bird Markets

An ability to forecast the prevalence of specific subtypes of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in live-bird markets would facilitate greatly the implementation of preventative measures designed to minimize poultry losses and human exposure. The minimum requirement for developing predictive quantitative tools is surveillance data of AIV prevalence sampled frequently over several years. Recently, a 4-year time series of monthly sampling of hemagglutinin subtypes 1–13 in ducks, chickens and quail in live-bird markets in southern China has become available. We used these data to investigate whether a simple statistical model, based solely on historical data (variables such as the number of positive samples in host X of subtype Y time t months ago), could accurately predict prevalence of H5 and H9 subtypes in chickens. We also examined the role of ducks and quail in predicting prevalence in chickens within the market setting because between-species transmission is thought to occur within markets but has not been measured. Our best statistical models performed remarkably well at predicting future prevalence (pseudo-R2 = 0.57 for H9 and 0.49 for H5), especially considering the multi-host, multi-subtype nature of AIVs. We did not find prevalence of H5/H9 in ducks or quail to be predictors of prevalence in chickens within the Chinese markets. Our results suggest surveillance protocols that could enable more accurate and timely predictive statistical models. We also discuss which data should be collected to allow the development of mechanistic models.

Avian Influenza Virus Investigation in Wild Bobwhite Quail from Texas

The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) populations from the rolling plains of Texas, U. S. A. A total of 1320 swab samples (652 tracheal swabs and 668 cloacal swabs) and 44 serum samples were collected from wild-captured or hunter-harvested bobwhite quail from November 2009 to April 2011 at the Rolling Planes Quail Research Ranch, Fisher County, Texas, U. S. A. The presence of AIV in the swabs was determined by real-time reverse-transcription-PCR (rRT-PCR) and all samples positive or suspicious by rRT-PCR were further processed for virus isolation in embryonated chicken eggs. A total of 18 (1.4%) swab samples tested positive for AIV by rRT-PCR (cycle threshold [Ct] values < 35): 13 cloacal swabs (1.9%) and 5 tracheal swabs (0.8%). In addition, 100 (7.6%) swab samples were considered suspicious (Ct values 35.1-40): 69 cloacal swabs (10.3%) and 31 tracheal swabs (4.7%). No virus was isolated from any of the rRT-PCR-positive or suspicious samples tested. Additionally, 44 serum samples were screened for AIV antibodies and were negative. The results presented here indicate low prevalence of AIV in wild populations of bobwhite quail.

Ecological Factors Driving Avian Influenza Virus Dynamics in Spanish Wetland Ecosystems

Studies exploring the ecological interactions between avian influenza viruses (AIV), natural hosts and the environment are scarce. Most work has focused on viral survival and transmission under laboratory conditions and through mathematical modelling. However, more integrated studies performed under field conditions are required to validate these results. In this study, we combined information on bird community, environmental factors and viral epidemiology to assess the contribution of biotic and abiotic factors in the occurrence of low pathogenic AIV in Spanish wetlands. For that purpose, seven locations in five different wetlands were studied during two years (2007–2009), including seven sampling visits by location. In each survey, fresh faeces (n = 4578) of wild birds and water samples were collected for viral detection. Also, the vegetation structure, water physical properties of wetlands, climatic conditions and wild bird community composition were determined. An overall AIV prevalence of 1.7%±0.4 was detected in faecal samples with important fluctuations among seasons and locations. Twenty-six AIV were isolated from the 78 RRT-PCR positive samples and eight different haemagglutinines and five neuraminidases were identified, being the combination H3N8 the most frequent. Variation partitioning procedures identified the combination of space and time variables as the most important pure factor – independently to other factors – explaining the variation in AIV prevalence (36.8%), followed by meteorological factor (21.5%) and wild bird community composition/vegetation structure (21.1%). These results contribute to the understanding of AIV ecological drivers in Spanish ecosystems and provide useful guidelines for AIV risk assessment identifying potential hotspots of AIV activity.

AVIAN INFLUENZA INFECTIONS IN NONMIGRANT LAND BIRDS IN ANDEAN PERU

As part of ongoing surveillance for avian influenza viruses (AIV) in Peruvian birds, in June 2008, we sampled 600 land birds of 177 species, using real-time reverse-transcription PCR. We addressed the assumption that AIV prevalence is low or nil among land birds, a hypodiesis that was not supported by the results-rather, we found AIV infections at relatively high prevalences in birds of the orders Apodiformes (hummingbirds) and Passeriformes (songbirds). Surveillance programs for monitoring spread and identification of AIV should thus not focus solely on water birds.

Antibodies to avian influenza viruses in Canada geese (Branta canadensis): a potential surveillance tool?

Traditionally, the epidemiology of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in wild birds has been defined by detection of virus or viral RNA through virus isolation or reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Our goals were to estimate AIV antibody prevalence in Canada geese (Branta canadensis) and measure effects of age and location on these estimates. We collected 3,205 samples from nine states during June and July 2008 and 2009: Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Washington, and West Virginia. Serum samples were tested for AIV antibodies with the use of a commercial blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Overall, 483 (15%) Canada geese had detectable antibodies to AIV. Significantly higher prevalences were detected in geese collected from northeastern and upper midwestern states compared with southeastern states. This trend is consistent with results from virus isolation studies reporting AIV prevalence in North American dabbling ducks. Within Pennsylvania, significantly higher antibody prevalences were detected in goose flocks sampled in urban locations compared to flocks sampled in rural areas. Antibody prevalence was significantly higher in after-hatch-year geese compared to hatch-year geese. No significant differences in prevalence were detected from 10 locations sampled during both years. Results indicate that Canada geese are frequently exposed to AIVs and, with resident populations, may potentially be useful as sentinels to confirm regional AIV transmission within wild bird populations.

Investigating Avian Influenza Infection Hotspots in Old-World Shorebirds

Heterogeneity in the transmission rates of pathogens across hosts or environments may produce disease hotspots, which are defined as specific sites, times or species associations in which the infection rate is consistently elevated. Hotspots for avian influenza virus (AIV) in wild birds are largely unstudied and poorly understood. A striking feature is the existence of a unique but consistent AIV hotspot in shorebirds (Charadriiformes) associated with a single species at a specific location and time (ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres at Delaware Bay, USA, in May). This unique case, though a valuable reference, limits our capacity to explore and understand the general properties of AIV hotspots in shorebirds. Unfortunately, relatively few shorebirds have been sampled outside Delaware Bay and they belong to only a few shorebird families; there also has been a lack of consistent oropharyngeal sampling as a complement to cloacal sampling. In this study we looked for AIV hotspots associated with other shorebird species and/or with some of the larger congregation sites of shorebirds in the old world. We assembled and analysed a regionally extensive dataset of AIV prevalence from 69 shorebird species sampled in 25 countries across Africa and Western Eurasia. Despite this diverse and extensive coverage we did not detect any new shorebird AIV hotspots. Neither large shorebird congregation sites nor the ruddy turnstone were consistently associated with AIV hotspots. We did, however, find a low but widespread circulation of AIV in shorebirds that contrast with the absence of AIV previously reported in shorebirds in Europe. A very high AIV antibody prevalence coupled to a low infection rate was found in both first-year and adult birds of two migratory sandpiper species, suggesting the potential existence of an AIV hotspot along their migratory flyway that is yet to be discovered.

Migration strategy affects avian influenza dynamics in mallards (Anas platyrhynchos)

Studies of pathogen transmission typically overlook that wildlife hosts can include both migrant and resident populations when attempting to model circulation. Through the application of stable isotopes in flight feathers, we estimated the migration strategy of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) occurring on California wintering grounds. Our study demonstrates that mallards- a principal host of avian influenza virus (AIV) in nature, contribute differently to virus gene flow depending on migration strategy. No difference in AIV prevalence was detected between resident (9.6%), intermediate-distance (9.6%) and long-distance migrants (7.4%). Viral diversity among the three groups was also comparable, possibly owing to viral pool mixing when birds converge at wetlands during winter. However, migrants and residents contributed differently to the virus gene pool at wintering wetlands. Migrants introduced virus from northern breeding grounds (Alaska and the NW Pacific Rim) into the wintering population, facilitating gene flow at continental scales, but circulation of imported virus appeared to be limited. In contrast, resident mallards acted as AIV reservoirs facilitating year-round circulation of limited subtypes (i.e. H5N2) at lower latitudes. This study supports a model of virus exchange in temperate regions driven by the convergence of wild birds with separate geographic origins and exposure histories.

Surveillance of Influenza A Virus in Wild Birds in the Asian Portion of Russia in 2008

Wild waterfowl undertake a variety of long-distance flights during their migration. These flights provide birds with the opportunities to both acquire and disseminate avian influenza viruses (AIVs). The Asian portion of Russia is crossed by four major migration routes and represents the major breeding area for many wild bird species in the Palearctic. The Asian territory of Russia plays an important role in distribution, persistence, and evolution of AIVs due to the ecologic relationships of bird populations from Russia and different Asian, European, African, and North American countries. Our study highlights the results of surveillance conducted in 2008 for AIVs in wild birds in the Asian portion of Russia. During this study, our team collected and tested 5678 samples from wild birds. Among them, 41 samples tested positive for AIV with an isolation rate of 0.72%. The highest AIV prevalence, 1.49%, was found in Anseriformes. In Ardeidae and Laridae, the AIV prevalence was 1.23% and 0.64%, respectively. Rallidae showed the lowest AIV prevalence of 0.61%. Phylogenetic analysis of H3 and H4 subtypes represented close relationships of AIVs isolated from the Asian portion of Russia to the AI strains from Asia, Africa, and Europe. These findings were confirmed by the wild bird migration routes that affect bird populations from Eurasian, African, Australian, and North American continents.

Model to Track Wild Birds for Avian Influenza by Means of Population Dynamics and Surveillance Information

Design, sampling and data interpretation constitute an important challenge for wildlife surveillance of avian influenza viruses (AIV). The aim of this study was to construct a model to improve and enhance identification in both different periods and locations of avian species likely at high risk of contact with AIV in a specific wetland. This study presents an individual-based stochastic model for the Ebre Delta as an example of this appliance. Based on the Monte-Carlo method, the model simulates the dynamics of the spread of AIV among wild birds in a natural park following introduction of an infected bird. Data on wild bird species population, apparent AIV prevalence recorded in wild birds during the period of study, and ecological information on factors such as behaviour, contact rates or patterns of movements of waterfowl were incorporated as inputs of the model. From these inputs, the model predicted those species that would introduce most of AIV in different periods and those species and areas that would be at high risk as a consequence of the spread of these AIV incursions. This method can serve as a complementary tool to previous studies to optimize the allocation of the limited AI surveillance resources in a local complex ecosystem. However, this study indicates that in order to predict the evolution of the spread of AIV at the local scale, there is a need for further research on the identification of host factors involved in the interspecies transmission of AIV.

The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza 'hotspot'.

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) pose significant danger to human health. A key step in managing this threat is understanding the maintenance of AIVs in wild birds, their natural reservoir. Ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres) are an atypical bird species in this regard, annually experiencing high AIV prevalence in only one location-Delaware Bay, USA, during their spring migration. While there, they congregate on beaches, attracted by the super-abundance of horseshoe crab eggs. A relationship between ruddy turnstone and horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) population sizes has been established, with a declining horseshoe crab population linked to a corresponding drop in ruddy turnstone population sizes. The effect of this interaction on AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones has also been addressed. Here, we employ a transmission model to investigate how the interaction between these two species is likely to be altered by climate change. We explore the consequences of this modified interaction on both ruddy turnstone population size and AIV prevalence and show that, if climate change leads to a large enough mismatch in species phenology, AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones will increase even as their population size decreases.