Predictors Of Mortality In Children Research Articles

Response to letter to the editor concerning: Nasir AA, Abdur-Rahman LO, Adeniran JO. Predictor of mortality in children with typhoid intestinal perforation in a tertiary hospital in Nigeria. Pediatric Surg Int 2011; 27:1317–1321. Epub 2011, May 19

Re: Letter to the editor concerning: Nasir AA, AbdurRahman LO, Adeniran JO. Predictor of mortality in children with typhoid intestinal perforation in a tertiary hospital in Nigeria. Pediatric Surg Int 2011;27: 1317–1321. We have read the above letter and wish to thank the author for the valuable information on the possible contribution of host factors like the genes of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) to the occurrence of high proportion of typhoid intestinal perforation in Nigeria. However, facility for genetic association study is lacking in our setting. The possibility of the presence of abnormal flagellar antigenic components responsible for the intestinal perforation in Nigeria cannot be overruled. We have previously reported the increase in number of multiple perforations involving small and large bowel in our center [1, 2]. We thus speculated the possible influence of special strain of salmonella organism in our patients. Unfortunately, we cannot phage type these organisms in our center. We however do not think that the Salmonella typhi strain carrying the flagellar antigen variant H1-j is responsible in our patients because the H1-j strain of S. enterica serotype typhi has been found to infect older patient and had a milder clinical illness [3] not intestinal perforation, which is a severe form of the disease.

Association of persistent hyperglycemia with outcome of severe traumatic brain injury in pediatric population

Hyperglycemia is a common secondary insult associated with an increased risk of mortality and poor outcome in traumatic brain injury (TBI), but the effect of hyperglycemia on outcomes of severe TBI in children and adolescents is less apparent. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of hyperglycemia with mortality in pediatric patients with severe TBI. In this cross-sectional study, data of all children and adolescents with severe TBI admitted to Poursina Hospital in Rasht, including age, gender, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) upon admission, mortality rate, hospital length of stay, and serial blood glucose during the first three consecutive ICU days following admission, were reviewed from April 2007 to May 2011. After univariate analysis and adjustment for related covariates, logistic regression model was established to determine the association between persistent hyperglycemia and outcome. One-hundred and twenty-two children were included with a median admission GCS of 6 (interquartile range (IQR) 5-7) and a median age of 13 years (IQR 7.75-17). Among them, 91 were boys (74.6%) and 31 were girls (26.6%); the overall mortality was 40.2% (n=49). Patients who died had a significantly greater blood glucose levels than survivors for the first 3 days of admission (P=0.003, P<0.001, P=0.001, respectively). Moreover, persistent hyperglycemia during the first 3 days of admission had an adjusted odds ratio of 11.11 for mortality (P<0.001). Early hyperglycemia is associated with poor outcome, and persistent hyperglycemia is a powerful and independent predictor of mortality in children and adolescents with severe TBI.

Pediatric End‐stage Liver Disease Score in Acute Liver Failure to Assess Poor Prognosis

Although establishing accurate prognosis in acute liver failure (ALF) is of paramount importance, prognostic scoring systems still fail to achieve success. The pediatric end-stage liver disease (PELD) score has been used as a predictor of mortality in children with chronic liver disease listed for liver transplantation (LT); however, experience with the PELD score in ALF is limited. The goal of the present study was to investigate the prognostic accuracy of the PELD score in children with ALF. PELD score was calculated based on results of blood tests obtained at hospital admission from June 1999 to January 2009, in 40 consecutive patients younger than 18 years who presented with ALF. Poor outcome was defined as LT or death. Mean (±SD) age of patients was 5.3 ± 4.4 years (range 6 months-17 years); 52.5% were girls (n = 21). Etiologies of ALF were hepatitis A in 42.5% (17), indeterminate in 35% (14), autoimmune hepatitis in 17.5% (type 1 12.5% [n5], type 2 5% [n2]), and toxic in 5% (2). Mean PELD score was 34.92 ± 10.48 (range 6-55). PELD scores obtained on admission were significantly higher among nonsurvivors (39.8 ± 9.5) and recipients of an LT (39 ± 7.1) compared with those who survived without LT (31.3 ± 3) (P < 0.001). A cutoff of 33 in PELD score using receiver operating characteristic curves showed 81% specificity and 86% sensitivity for poor outcome (positive predictive value 92% and negative predictive value 69%; area under curve 0.88 95% confidence interval 0.77-1.0; P < 0.0001). PELD score obtained upon admission may be of help to establish the optimal timing for LT evaluation and listing. Further validation in larger and more diverse populations is needed.

Predictors of Mortality in Children and Adolescents with Sickle Cell Disease: The PUSH Study

Abstract 515 Background:Recent studies indicate that the disease-specific mortality In sickle cell anemia is about 6% in children up to 18 years and 15% in the 18–30 year age group, yielding a cumulative mortality of 21% by age 30 years. It is important to identify children at high risk so that early interventions can be developed to reduce this high mortality. Methods:We prospectively enrolled 505 children and adolescents with sickle cell disease in 2005–2010, 380 with hemoglobin SS and 130 with other genotypes. The median age at enrollment was 12 years with a range of 3 to 20 years. Baseline clinical features, echocardiography, six-minute walk test and pulmonary function testing were performed at steady-state. Follow-up for mortality has been performed in 470 of the participants at a median of 37 months after enrollment, range of 1 to 59 months. Results:Six of 470 patients (1.3%) died during the follow-up period, five with hemoglobin SS and one with hemoglobin SC. The median age at the time of death in these six participants was 20 years, range of 15 to 23 years. Death occurred during the follow-up period in 2.7% of participants over 12 years of age at enrollment and 3.7% of those over 15 years of age. The causes of death were stroke in 4, multiorgan failure in 1 and unknown in 1. Death occurred in 5.9% of 51 participants with a history of stroke versus 0.7% of 416 without stroke history; in 3.5% of 113 participants with a history of asthma versus 0.6% of 354 without asthma history; in 4.9% of 103 participants with 10 or more blood transfusions lifetime versus 0.3% of 359 with less than 10 blood transfusions; in 3.3% of 90 participants with two or more severe pain episodes in the past year versus 0.8% of 380 participants with less than two severe pain episodes in the past year. In age-adjusted analyses, the hazards ratio (95% CI) of death was 6.1 (1.2-30.5) for history of stroke (P=0.029), 10.2 (1.2-89.5) for history of frequent blood transfusions (P=0.036), 5.8 (1.1-31.8) for history of asthma (P=0.044) and 1.07 (1.00-1.14) for frequent severe pain episodes (P=0.047). Clinical findings associated with these risk factors included higher concentrations of markers of hemolysis for history of stroke and history of frequent blood transfusions, decreased FEV1/FVC and increased total lung capacity for history of asthma, and lower concentrations of markers of hemolysis and high ECHO-determined tricuspid regurgitation velocity for history of frequent severe pain episodes. Conclusions:Over a median of three years of observation of this cohort, no deaths occurred among 248 sickle cell disease children 12 years of age or younger at enrollment but there were 6 deaths among 222 participants 13–20 years of age at enrollment. In bi-variate age-adjusted analyses, histories of stroke, asthma, frequent blood transfusions and frequent pain episodes were associated with an increased risk of death. Strikingly, four of the five deaths in which the cause was known were due to stroke. The present data on mortality in the PUSH study suggest that prevention of stroke is critical in improving the survival in adolescents and young adults with sickle cell disease. Disclosures:No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Predictor of mortality in children with typhoid intestinal perforation in a Tertiary Hospital in Nigeria

Typhoid intestinal perforation (TIP) exerts a great toll both on the patients and the surgeons in resource poor countries. Factors that predict mortality in patients with TIP remain controversial. The study aims to determine factors that predict mortality in a Nigerian tertiary facility and to offer strategies for improvement. We conducted a retrospective analysis of data of 153 children who underwent surgery for TIP at a Tertiary Hospital in Nigeria over a period of 8years (January 2002 to December 2009). Data collected included patient demographics, presentation, haemoglobin level (Hgb), presentation-operation interval, type of surgical procedure, nature of peritoneal collection, the number of perforations and duration of surgery. Postoperative complications, duration of hospital stay and outcome were also examined. There were 99 (64.7%) boys and 54 (35.3%) girls aged 3-15years, mean (SD)=9.4 (±3.6) years. There were 105 single perforations and 46 multiple perforations (range 1-32). The surgical procedure was simple 2-layer closure in 128 (83.7%) and segmental resection in 9 (5.9%) children. The mortality was 16 (10.4%). The mean (SD) age of children who survived and those who died was 9.3 (±3.6) years and 10.1 (±4.0) years, respectively; p=0.446, the mean duration of symptom in children who survived and those who died was 10.3 (±4.9) days and 12.3 (±5.6) days; p=0.164, and the mean interval between presentation and operation in those who died and those who survived was 29.3 (±25) h and 28.4 (±13.4) h; p=0.896. Temperature ≥38.5°C (p=0.040), anastomotic leak (p=0.029) and faecal fistula (p=0.000) were significantly associated with mortality. Age <5years (p=0.675), male gender (p=0.845), presentation-operation interval ≥24h (p=0.940), Hgb less than 8g/dL (p=0.058), faeculent peritoneal collection (p=0.757), number of perforations (p=0.518) and the surgical technique (p=0.375) were not related to mortality. Logistic regression analysis showed that only postoperative faecal fistula (p=0.001; OR=13.7) independently predicted mortality. Development of postoperative fecal fistula significantly predicted mortality. Prioritizing the prevention of typhoid fever than its treatment and attention to surgical details may significantly reduce mortality of TIP in children in this setting.

Risk Factors for Major Transplant Related Outcomes In Pediatric Patients with Chronic Graft-Versus-Host Disease

AbstractAbstract 211The adverse impact of chronic GVHD (cGvHD) on health and quality of life is especially critical in children because of their longer life expectancy and problems impacting growth and development. Although risk-factors for developing cGvHD in children are reported, little is known about risk factors for non-relapse mortality (NRM) in children with cGvHD. Identification of predictors for mortality in children with cGvHD could permit risk-adapted therapy, help plan for clinical trials and assist in counseling. We performed a multivariate analysis using data from CIBMTR to identify transplant- and cGvHD-related risk factors for NRM and survival in a cohort of 1117 subjects aged 0–20 years, transplanted from related donors, unrelated donors (URD), or unrelated cord blood (UCB) in 1995–2004 for acute myelogenous leukemia (AML), acute lymphoid leukemia (ALL), chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) or myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Median age was 12 years. Characteristics of cGvHD at diagnosis were: progressive onset (49%), total bilirubin >2 mg/dL (16%), thrombocytopenia (platelets <100 × 109/L, 32%) and Karnofsky/Lansky (KPS/L) score <80 (24%). Probabilities of NRM at 1, 3, and 5 years after diagnosis of cGvHD were 17% (95% CI: 14–19%), 22% (20-25%) and 24% (21-27%), respectively. Multivariate analysis indentified four factors significantly associated (p<0.01) with higher NRM: (1) HLA-partially-matched or -mismatched URD; (2) peripheral blood cell graft; (3) KPS/L <80 at cGVHD diagnosis; and (4) platelets <100 × 109/L at cGVHD diagnosis. Survival after diagnosis of cGVHD at 1-, 3- and 5-years was 75% (72-77%), 63% (60-66%), and 59% (56-62%). Factors significantly associated with worse survival were: (1) age >10 years; (2) transplant from an HLA-partially-matched or -mismatched URD; (3) advanced disease at transplant; (4) KPS/L <80; and (5) platelets <100 × 109/L. The cumulative incidence of NRM at 5 years was higher for children with KPS/L <80 (46%; CI: 40–52%) than for those with a higher KPS/L score (15%; CI: 12–18%; p<0.001). This translated to poorer survival of 42% (36-48%) vs. 66% (CI: 63–70%; p<0.001), respectively. 5 year cumulative incidence of NRM was also higher in children with platelets <100 × 109/L: 37% (32-43%) vs. 15% (CI: 12–18%; p<0.001). This also resulted in poorer survival (47%, CI: 42–52%; vs. 67%, CI: 63–71%; p<0.001). Cumulative incidence of discontinuation of systemic immune suppression (death and relapse treated as competing risks) at 1, 3 and 5 years after diagnosis of cGvHD were 22% (20-25%), 34% (31-37%), and 37% (34-40%). In conclusion, we identified several factors adversely correlated with NRM and survival children with cGvHD. The correlation between peripheral blood cell grafts and increased NRM without poorer survival may be explained by fewer relapses. This is the first large study elucidating factors affecting outcome after diagnosis of cGvHD in children. Our results may be useful for risk stratification. [Display omitted] [Display omitted] Disclosures:No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Mortality predictors of pneumonia in children

Background Pneumonia is one of the main causes of death in children in developing countries. It is important to identify clinical signs, demographic factors, and laboratory data which can be used to predict children who have higher risk of mortality from pneumonia.Objective To find the clinical signs, demographic factors and laboratory data that can be used as predictors of mortality from pneumonia.Methods T his historical case􀀽control study was carried out in Sardjito Hospital between January 2004 and December 2006. Data were obtained from medical records. Differential proportion between groups was analyzed with chi square. Regression analysis was used to identify clinical factors, demographic factors and laboratory factors that associated with mortality from pneumonia.Results Fifty􀀽eight patients were enrolled in this study, 29 patients were dead (case group) and 29 patients were cured (control group). Baseline data between the two groups were similar in terms of gender and mean of age. Bivariate analyses show that the predictors of mortality in children with pneumonia were: age &lt; 1 year (OR3.11, 95% CI 1.06 to 9.08), malnutrition (OR 7.30,95% CI 1.62- to 21.03), age of the mother &lt; 20 years (OR 2.21,95%CI 1.64 to 2.97),t achycardia (OR 6.075,95% CI 1.18 to 31.24), and anemia (OR 5 .83, 95% CI 1.88 to 18.10). Logistic regression analysis shows that tachycardia (OR 6.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 36.17) and anemia (OR 4.41,95% CI 1.25 to 15.51) were predictor of mortality in children 'With pneumonia.Conclusions Tachycardia and anemia play as independent mortality predictors of pneumonia in children.

Predictors for mortality and loss to follow‐up among children receiving anti‐retroviral therapy in Lilongwe, Malawi

To determine predictors of mortality in children on anti-retroviral therapy (ART) who attended the Paediatric HIV Clinic at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Lilongwe, Malawi. Retrospective case cohort study by chart review of children who had started ART between October 2004 and May 2006. Bivariable and multivariable analysis were performed with and without defaulters to evaluate associations according to vital status and to identify independent predictors of mortality. Forty-one of 258 children (15.9%) were deceased, 185 (71.7%) were alive, and 32 (12.4%) had defaulted: 51% were female, 7% were under 18 months, 26% were 18 months to 5 years, and 54% were >5 years of age. Most were WHO stage III or IV (56% and 37%, respectively). On multivariate analysis, factors most strongly associated with mortality and defaulting were age <18 months [hazards ratio (HR) 2.11 (95% CI 1.0-4.51)] and WHO stage IV [HR 2.00 (95% CI 1.07-3.76)]. To improve outcomes of HIV-positive children, they must be identified and treated early, specifically children under 18 months of age. Access to infant diagnostic procedures must be improved to allow effective initiation of ART in infants at higher risk of death.

Outcome and risk factors for mortality in children with acute renal failure

Acute renal failure (ARF) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in children. Here, we investigate etiology, comorbidities, outcome and risk factors associated with mortality in these children with ARF. We retrospectively reviewed the characteristics of 58 children with ARF diagnosed between January 1997 and December 2006 at a single institute. Factors including age, sex, clinical features and laboratory parameters were compared between survivors and non-survivors. ARF was secondary to extrarenal causes in 79.3% of cases. Sepsis (18.9%), hematooncologic disease (18.9%) and cardiovascular disease (18.9%), were the main causes of ARF. Primary renal disease due to acute glomerulonephritis, nephrotic syndrome, hemolytic uremic syndrome and obstructive uropathy accounted for 20.7% of the cases. The overall mortality rate was 51.7%. There were no significant differences between survivors and non-survivors in gender and changes in the peak levels of calcium, phosphorous and uric acid levels. The mortality rate was significantly higher when ARF occurred in younger children (p = 0.019), secondary to systemic disease (p = 0.038, odds ratio 4.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0, 17.9), sepsis (p < 0.001, odds ratio 19.7; 95% CI 5.1, 76.4), use of ventilator (p < 0.001, odds ratio 35; 95% CI 6.7, 182.7), multiple organ failure (p < 0.001) and non-use of renal replacement therapy (p = 0.018, odds ratio, 3.6; 95% CI interval 1.2, 10.6) on univariate analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that sepsis (p = 0.011, odds ratio, 11.3; 95% CI 1.7, 73.0) and numbers of organ failures (p = 0.001, odds ratio 8.14; 95% CI 2.5, 26.7) were independently associated with mortality. This study found that sepsis and number of organ failures were independent predictors of mortality in children with ARF.

Serial blood lactate levels as a predictor of mortality in children after cardiopulmonary bypass surgery

To assess the role of serial lactate levels in determining outcome after cardiopulmonary bypass surgery in children. Analysis of retrospectively collected data. Cardiac intensive care unit of a tertiary care children's hospital. Patients were 129 children who underwent surgery for congenital cardiac defects. None. Patients were categorized for disease severity using the Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery method. Blood lactate levels were obtained at admission to the cardiac intensive care unit and then serially until they were <2 mmol/L. Lactime, time during which the lactate remains >2 mmol/L, was noted for each patient. The primary outcome measured was mortality. Secondary outcomes measured were ventilator days and hospital days. Six patients died, and of these five were neonates. Nonsurvivors had higher initial postoperative lactate concentration (p = .01), peak postoperative lactate concentration (p = .003), and lactime (p = .05). In binomial logistic regression analysis, lactime was the strongest predictor of mortality (p = .03). The positive predictive value for all age groups was highest for lactime >48 hrs, with a positive predictive value of 60%, and among the neonates it was 75%. Initial lactate level >6 mmol/L had a positive predictive value of only 6%, and the peak lactate level >6 mmol/L had a positive predictive value of only 15%. Lactime also had a significant association with ventilator days and hospital days among the survivors (p = .001). Lactime was a useful predictor of mortality in children undergoing repair or palliation of congenital cardiac defects under cardiopulmonary bypass. Initial and peak lactate levels had a poor positive predictive value for mortality. Lactime also was associated with the number of ventilator days and hospital days in those who survived.

Diabetic ketoacidosis: predictors of outcome in a pediatric intensive care unit of a developing country.

To study the outcome and predictors of mortality in children with diabetic ketoacidosis. Retrospective case series. Pediatric intensive care unit of an urban multiple-specialty teaching and referral hospital in north India. Sixty-eight patients with diabetic ketoacidosis treated between 1993 and 2000. Data were retrieved from case records with respect to patients' age; clinical features; osmolality at admission; blood glucose, serum potassium, and arterial pH at admission, 6 hrs, and 24 hrs; complications during the course of hospital stay; treatment; and outcome in terms of survival or death. Survivors and nonsurvivors were compared to determine the predictors of mortality. The mean (sd) age of the study population was 6.9 (3.5) yrs (range, 0.5-12 yrs). Impaired consciousness (n = 45; 66%), rapid breathing (n = 41; 60%), and vomiting (n = 35; 51.4%) were common presenting symptoms. Thirty-two (50%) patients had clinically evident dehydration. Precipitating events identified were new-onset diabetes with sepsis (37%), new-onset diabetes alone (31%), insulin omission (15%), and infection with insulin omission (7%). The mean (sd) blood glucose, osmolality, and pH at admission were 473 (sd 184) mg/dL, 305 (sd 24) mOsm/L, and 7.08 (sd 0.1), respectively. Complications noted during treatment were hypokalemia (n = 28; 41%), hypoglycemia (n = 10; 15%), cerebral edema (n = 9; 13.2%), and pulmonary edema (n = 2; 3%). Nine (13.2%) patient died, with the causes of death being septic shock (n = 4), cerebral edema (n = 2), cerebral edema with pulmonary edema (n = 2), and hypokalemia with ventricular tachycardia (n = 1). Those who died were older, had higher osmolality and severe acidosis at admission, and had persistent hyperglycemia and acidosis at 6-12 hrs. On multiple logistic regression analysis, osmolality at admission was the most significant predictor of death. Two thirds of children with diabetic ketoacidosis in our series had new-onset diabetes, and 13.2% died. Serum osmolality at admission was the most important predictor of death.

Structural determinants of child mortality in sub‐Saharan Africa: A cross‐national study of economic and social influences from 1970 to 1997

This cross-national study seeks to understand the lagging child mortality declines in sub-Saharan Africa by using World Bank data to investigate social and economic factors at three points in time: 1970, 1985, and 1997. Women's education, foreign debt-to-export ratio, and GNP per capita are among the strongest correlates of under five mortality over time. Cross-sectional and longitudinal results suggest that female education is the best overall predictor of child mortality. Average national income does not emerge as a strong predictor, particularly since 1985. Increasing levels of foreign debt are associated with a substantial excess mortality burden. In 1997, the effect of adult HIV prevalence on child mortality was moderate and statistically significant. The study concludes that, although future gains in social factors such as female education will likely be beneficial, without simultaneously addressing high levels of foreign debt and high HIV prevalence, it may be difficult to improve child mortality rates across sub-Saharan Africa.

Hyperglycemia and outcomes from pediatric traumatic brain injury.

The clinical significance of hyperglycemia after pediatric traumatic brain injury is controversial. This study addresses the relationship between hyperglycemia and outcomes after traumatic brain injury in pediatric patients. We identified trauma patients admitted during a single year to our regional pediatric referral center with head regional Abbreviated Injury Scale scores > or = 3. We studied identified patients for admission characteristics potentially influencing their outcomes. The primary outcome measure was Glasgow Outcome Scale score. Patients who died had significantly higher admission serum glucose values than those patients who survived (267 mg/dL vs. 135 mg/dL; p = 0.000). Admission serum glucose > or = 300 mg/dL was uniformly associated with death. Admission Glasgow Coma Scale score (odds ratio, 0.560; 95% confidence interval, 0.358-0.877) and serum glucose (odds ratio, 1.013; 95% confidence interval, 1.003-1.023) are independent predictors of mortality in children with traumatic head injuries. CONCLUSION Hyperglycemia and poor neurologic outcome in head-injured children are associated. The pathophysiology of hyperglycemia in neurologic injury after head trauma remains unclear.

A prospective comparison of malaria with other severe diseases in African children: prognosis and optimization of management.

The burden of malaria in regions of high endemicity frequently overwhelms hospitals' capacity to provide effective care. A rapid, simple method of identifying children who are at highest risk is vital to reduce mortality among hospitalized children. Multiple regression analysis identified prognostic variables predicting mortality in severely ill children admitted to a Ghanaian teaching hospital. These variables were compared in children with and without malaria. A total of 1492 (90.2%) of 1654 severely ill children referred for assessment had evaluable outcomes. Low Blantyre coma score (BCS), high blood lactate level, and high body mass index were independent predictors of mortality among children with malaria (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC/ROC], 0.84). In children without malaria, BCS and lactate level also predicted mortality, but the addition of respiratory distress and hematocrit improved the model (AUC/ROC, 0.77). Predictors of mortality in children with malaria differ from those for other severe illnesses and reflect differences in underlying pathophysiological processes.

Child survival in relation to mother's HIV infection and survival: evidence from a Ugandan cohort study.

To analyse the contribution of maternal survival and HIV status to child (under-5 years) mortality in a rural population cohort in South-west Uganda. Approximately 10 000 people residing in 15 neighbouring villages were followed between 1989 and 2000 using annual censuses and serological surveys to collect data on births, deaths, and adult HIV serostatus. Mother-child records were linked, child mortality risks (per 1000 births) and hazard ratios (HRs) for child mortality according to maternal HIV serostatus were computed, allowing for time-varying covariates. A total of 3727 children were born, of whom 415 died during 14 110 child years of follow-up. Mother's HIV status at birth was ascertained unambiguously for 3004 children, of whom 218 were born to HIV-positive mothers. Infant mortality risk was higher for HIV seropositive than seronegative mothers (225 versus 53) as was child mortality risk (313 versus 114). Child mortality risk was also higher for mothers who died (571) than for surviving mothers (128). After controlling for child's age and sex, independent predictors of mortality in children were: mother's terminal illness or death (HR = 3.8); mother being HIV positive (HR = 3.2); child being a twin (HR = 2.0); teenage motherhood (HR = 1.7) and maternal absence (HR = 1.7). Maternal survival and HIV status are strong predictors of child survival. The higher mortality in HIV-infected women compounds mortality risks for their children, regardless of children's HIV status. Programmes aimed at the welfare of children should take into account the independent effect of mothers' HIV and vital status.

CD54 and CD62L expression by lymphoid cells in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children

Altered expression or function of adhesion molecules on leukaemic blasts may contribute to the evolution and biological behaviour of acute leukaemia. This work studies the expression of CD54 and CD62L by lymphoid cells and the serum level of the shed form of L-selectin (sL-selectin) in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) at initial diagnosis and after first remission, and their relationship to disease activity and subtype. The study is conducted on 20 children (age range 2-10 years) newly diagnosed with ALL and admitted to Alexandria University Children’s Hospital. Ten apparently healthy children of matched age and sex serve as a control group. Expression of CD54 and CD62L on mononuclear cells is detected by monoclonal antibodies using flow cytometry. Serum sL-selectin is measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). B-cell ALL was the most common subtype (45%), followed by T-ALL (35%) and C-ALL (20%). CD54 and CD62L mean cellular expression, as well as serum sL-selectin level, were significantly higher at diagnosis than both after remission and in the control group. Univariate analysis showed that the presence of mediastinal mass, high leucocyte count, central nervous system involvement and low CD54 were significant predictors of mortality in children with ALL.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome in children with malignancy—Can we predict outcome?

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to delineate early respiratory predictors of mortality in children with hemato-oncology malignancy who developed acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective chart review of children with malignant and ARDS who needed mechanical ventilation and were admitted to a pediatric intensive care unit from January 1987 to January 1997. Results: Seventeen children with ARDS and malignancy aged 10.5 ± 5.1 years were identified. Six of the 17 children (35.3%) survived. Sepsis syndrome was present in 70.6% of all the children. Peak inspiratory pressure, positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP), and ventilation index values could distinguish outcome by day 3. A significant relationship between respiratory data and outcome related to efficiency of oxygenation, as determined by Pa O 2/F IO 2 and P(A-a) O 2, was present from day 8 after onset of mechanical ventilation. Conclusions: Peak inspiratory pressure, PEEP, and ventilation index values could distinguish survivors from nonsurvivors by day 3. This may assist in early application of supportive nonconventional therapies in children with malignancy and ARDS. Copyright © 2001 by W.B. Saunders Company

Risk factors and predictors of mortality in children after ejection from motor vehicle crashes.

Mortality after ejection from a motor vehicle crash (MVC) has been studied extensively in adults. The magnitude of this problem in children is relatively unknown. We retrospectively examined fatalities resulting from ejection after MVC in the state of Pennsylvania to define risk factors and predictors of mortality in children. The records for all patients 0 to 16 years of age involved in an MVC and entered in the Pennsylvania Trauma Outcome Study between 1993 and 1997 were reviewed. We examined mortality, length of hospitalization, major injuries sustained, and impact of safety restraint devices. Significant differences were determined using chi2 test. There were 2,298 children involved in MVCs during this period; 189 were ejected. A total of 77% of the ejected passengers were greater than 10 years of age, 16% were 0 to 4 years of age, and 7% were 5 to 9 years of age. Overall, 88% of the ejected occupants were unrestrained. Ejection nearly tripled the overall mortality rate and significantly increased the Injury Severity Score for each age group. Infants and children 0 to 4 years of age had the highest fatality rate despite having a lower Injury Severity Score than all other age groups. Head injuries accounted for the majority of deaths in all age groups. Children older than 10 years of age had a higher incidence of associated chest, abdominal, and pelvic injuries. Our data show that most children ejected from MVCs were either unrestrained or improperly restrained. Head injuries were the most common cause of death in all age groups. Greater public awareness through educational programs targeting parents and children at risk may reduce this serious problem.

A prospective study of malnutrition in relation to child mortality in the Sudan

We examined prospectively the relation between malnutrition and mortality among Sudanese children. A cohort of 28753 children between the ages of 6 mo and 6 y was examined every 6 mo for 18 mo. Two hundred thirty-two children died during 18 mo of follow-up (480624 child-months). Low weight-for-height was associated with an increased risk of mortality (P < 0.0001). Even children with Z scores between -1 and -2 were 50% more likely to die in the following 6 mo than were children with Z scores > -1 (multivariate relative mortality: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1, 2.2). There was also an inverse relation between height-for-age and mortality (P < 0.0001). Among breast-fed children, the relative mortality associated with a Z score for weight-for-height of < -3 compared with > -2 was 7.3 (95% CI: 3.3, 15.9); among children not breast-fed, it was 26.0 (95% CI: 12.8, 53.0; P for interaction = 0.001). A strong and significant synergy was also found between infection and wasting or stunting as predictors of child mortality (P for interaction = 0.001 and 0.02. respectively). In developing countries, children who are below the customary cutoff point of -2 Z for weight-for-height may be at higher risk of death. Breast-feeding and reduction of morbidity should be advocated in programs designed to reduce malnutrition and mortality among children.

Cerebral palsy: why we must plan for survival.

The survival of children in the South East Thames region, born between 1970 and 1979 and diagnosed as having some form of cerebral palsy was investigated. Of the 732 children studied, 651 (90%) are still alive, and hence cerebral palsy must be regarded as a condition with which people live rather than a condition of which they die. Survival varies considerably among the different diagnostic groups: those suffering from spasic quadriplegia, dyskinetic and 'mixed' cerebral palsy are most severely affected. Our evidence suggests that, though immobility and severe mental subnormality are the strongest predictors of mortality in children with cerebral palsy, the majority of even the most severely affected patients survive to adulthood. It is therefore appropriate to plan for their survival by funding and evaluating programmes to maximise health, independence, and quality of life.