Predictor Of Severity In Patients Research Articles

Proteínas citrulinadas en artritis reumatoide

Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune disease of multifactorial etiology characterized by inflammation of the joints and presence of autoantibodies directed against multiple autoantigens. Recently the study of the anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACP) has acquired great interest due to its high specificity and sensitivity for diagnosis, in addition to which it has shown to be a predictor of severity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis, suggesting an important participation in the pathogenesis of the disease.

Validation of a Clinical Prediction Rule for Severe Acute Lower Intestinal Bleeding

Acute lower intestinal bleeding is a heterogeneous disorder and identification of high-risk patients is challenging. We previously retrospectively identified predictors of severity in patients with acute lower intestinal bleeding. The aim of this study was to prospectively validate a clinical prediction rule for severe acute lower intestinal bleeding. This was a prospective, observational cohort study of consecutive patients admitted to an academic, tertiary care or a community-based teaching hospital for management of acute lower intestinal bleeding. Data were collected on seven previously identified predictors of severe bleeding: heart rate > or = 100/min, systolic blood pressure < or = 115 mmHg, syncope, nontender abdominal exam, rectal bleeding in the first 4 h of evaluation, aspirin use, and >2 comorbid conditions. Severe bleeding was defined as transfusion of > or =2 units of red blood cells, and/or a decrease in hematocrit of > or =20% in the first 24 h, and/or recurrent rectal bleeding after 24 h of stability (accompanied by a further decrease in hematocrit of > or =20%, and/or additional blood transfusions, and/or readmission for acute lower intestinal bleeding within 1 wk of discharge). Patients were stratified into 3 risk groups according to the previously developed prediction rule: low (no risk factors), moderate (1-3 risk factors), and high (>3 risk factors). A total of 275 patients with acute lower intestinal bleeding were identified. The risk of severe bleeding in each risk category was similar in the validation and derivation cohorts (p values >0.05): low risk 6%versus 9%, moderate risk 43%versus 43%, and high risk 79%versus 84%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.754 for the validation cohort and 0.761 for the derivation cohort. The magnitude of the risk score was significantly correlated with major clinical outcomes including surgery, death, blood transfusions, and length of stay. We have developed and prospectively validated a clinical prediction rule for acute severe lower intestinal bleeding. This prediction rule could improve the triage of patients to appropriate levels of care and interventions, and guide a more standardized approach to acute lower intestinal bleeding.

Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea: predictors of severity in patients presenting to the emergency department.

Experiences with Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD) were reviewed to determine predictors of severity in patients presenting from the community. All patients admitted to two hospitals over 4.5 years with a primary diagnosis of CDAD were reviewed. Patients requiring a hospital stay of greater than 14 days, colectomy, intensive care unit admission or who died were classified as 'severe CDAD' and compared with the remainder of the patients (termed 'mild CDAD'). One hundred fifty-three patients (mean age 63.4+/-20.5 years, range 21 to 93, 64.7% female) were reviewed. Forty-four per cent of the patients had community-acquired CDAD, and the remainder had hospital-acquired disease. There were 44/153 (28.8%) patients with severe CDAD, of which 10/153 (6.5%) died. The severe group had more patients over 70 years old (75% versus 43% in the mild group, OR 3.09, CI 1.81-8.63, P<0.001) and had more comorbid disease (median two major organ systems affected [range zero to five] versus one [range zero to four] in the mild group, OR 1.52, CI 1.27-2.65, P<0.05). Patients with recurrent CDAD were more likely to have severe CDAD (12/44 versus 10/109 in the mild group, OR 4.10, CI 1.47-9.40, P<0.01). Age over 70 years, comorbid illness and CDAD recurrence are significant risk factors for severe disease and a poor outcome in patients admitted to hospital for CDAD.

Urinary trypsinogen activation peptide is more accurate than hematocrit in determining severity in patients with acute pancreatitis: a prospective study

OBJECTIVE: The management of patients with acute pancreatitis is complicated by the inability to distinguish mild from severe disease during the early stages. It has been previously shown that urinary trypsinogen activation peptide (TAP) and hematocrit (Hct) may serve as early predictors of severity in patients with acute pancreatitis. To establish which marker is more accurate in the determination of severity in patients with acute pancreatitis, a prospective study was performed. METHODS: A consecutive series of patients admitted with pain consistent with acute pancreatitis and an amylase of three times the upper limit of normal were included. The admission and 24-h Hct was obtained. A urine sample was obtained within 12 h of admission. Urinary TAP was determined using a modified solid phase ELISA. Severity was defined by the Atlanta Symposium, as the presence of organ failure and/or pancreatic necrosis. RESULTS: Fifty-eight consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis participated. There were 33 men and 25 women with a mean age of 60 ± 19. Thirty-nine patients had mild disease; 19 had severe disease. Urinary TAP was elevated in 26 patients. All patients with severe pancreatitis were correctly identified as having severe disease by an elevated urinary TAP (sensitivity 100%, specificity 77%). The admission Hct was higher than 47 in only three patients, all with mild disease. Of the patients with a rise in Hct, eight had mild disease, and only one had severe disease. Using a Hct of 44 as a cutoff did not affect the accuracy. There was no association between a rise in Hct and failure of Hct to decrease in the determination of severity. CONCLUSIONS: In comparison to admission Hct, urinary TAP was more accurate in determining severity in patients with acute pancreatitis by Atlanta, APACHE II, and Ranson criteria. We conclude that urinary TAP is a more accurate predictor of severity in patients with acute pancreatitis compared with Hct. Urinary TAP should be used to determine severity in patients early in the course of acute pancreatitis.

Urinary trypsinogen activation peptide is more accurate than hematocrit in determining severity in patients with acute pancreatitis: a prospective study.

The management of patients with acute pancreatitis is complicated by the inability to distinguish mild from severe disease during the early stages. It has been previously shown that urinary trypsinogen activation peptide (TAP) and hematocrit (Hct) may serve as early predictors of severity in patients with acute pancreatitis. To establish which marker is more accurate in the determination of severity in patients with acute pancreatitis, a prospective study was performed. A consecutive series of patients admitted with pain consistent with acute pancreatitis and an amylase of three times the upper limit of normal were included. The admission and 24-h Hct was obtained. A urine sample was obtained within 12 h of admission. Urinary TAP was determined using a modified solid phase ELISA. Severity was defined by the Atlanta Symposium, as the presence of organ failure and/or pancreatic necrosis. Fifty-eight consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis participated. There were 33 men and 25 women with a mean age of 60 +/- 19. Thirty-nine patients had mild disease; 19 had severe disease. Urinary TAP was elevated in 26 patients. All patients with severe pancreatitis were correctly identified as having severe disease by an elevated urinary TAP (sensitivity 100%, specificity 77%). The admission Hct was higher than 47 in only three patients, all with mild disease. Of the patients with a rise in Hct, eight had mild disease, and only one had severe disease. Using a Hct of 44 as a cutoff did not affect the accuracy. There was no association between a rise in Hct and failure of Hct to decrease in the determination of severity. In comparison to admission Hct, urinary TAP was more accurate in determining severity in patients with acute pancreatitis by Atlanta, APACHE II, and Ranson criteria. We conclude that urinary TAP is a more accurate predictor of severity in patients with acute pancreatitis compared with Hct. Urinary TAP should be used to determine severity in patients early in the course of acute pancreatitis.

The natural history of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome and the evaluation of SIRS criteria as a predictor of severity in patients hospitalized through emergency services.

Based on the concept of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), a one-year retrospective study was carried out among a total of 2389 patients transported to the emergency room by ambulance. With respect to 351 patients who had all data necessary for evaluating SIRS criteria in 369 hospitalized patients, 200 met SIRS criteria within 24 hours of admission (24h-SIRS). The mortality rate for 24h-SIRS patients was significantly higher than that of non-SIRS patients. The mortality rate for 24h-SIRS patients increased sequentially as more SIRS criteria were met. In 235 patients who met SIRS criteria during hospitalization (overall-SIRS), 108 had sepsis. Of these, 60 developed severe sepsis, and 50 developed septic shock. The mortality rate for patients who had 3 or more consecutive days of SIRS was significantly higher than that for those with less than 3 consecutive SIRS days. Among 153 patients who had all data necessary for APACHEIII scoring within 24 hours of admission, the mortality rate for SIRS patients whose APACHEIII score was 50 or higher was 40.7%, significantly higher than that of other patients. In conclusion, SIRS criteria were demonstrated to be useful as indicators of severity and for predicting outcome in patients hospitalized through emergency services. Patients who met the following criteria were found to be a high-risk population among hospitalized emergency patients with SIRS: (1) Those who had three or more consecutive days of SIRS. (2) Those whose APACHEIII score was 50 or higher.