Predictor Of Adverse Outcomes Research Articles

Metabolomic prediction of severe maternal and newborn complications in preeclampsia

IntroductionPreeclampsia (PreE) remains a major source of maternal and newborn complications. Prenatal prediction of these complications could significantly improve pregnancy management.ObjectivesUsing metabolomic analysis we investigated the prenatal prediction of maternal and newborn complications in early and late PreE and investigated the pathogenesis of such complications.MethodsSerum samples from 76 cases of PreE (36 early-onset and 40 late-onset), and 40 unaffected controls were collected. Direct Injection Liquid Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry combined with Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy was performed. Logistic regression analysis was used to generate models for prediction of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes in patients with PreE. Metabolite set enrichment analysis (MSEA) was used to identify the most dysregulated metabolites and pathways in PreE.ResultsForty-three metabolites were significantly altered (p < 0.05) in PreE cases with maternal complications and 162 metabolites were altered in PreE cases with newborn adverse outcomes. The top metabolite prediction model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.806 (0.660–0.952) for predicting adverse maternal outcomes in early-onset PreE, while the AUC for late-onset PreE was 0.843 (0.712–0.974). For the prediction of adverse newborn outcomes, regression models achieved an AUC = 0.828 (0.674–0.982) in early-onset PreE and 0.911 (0.828–0.994) in late-onset PreE. Profound alterations of lipid metabolism were associated with adverse outcomes.ConclusionPrenatal metabolomic markers achieved robust prediction, superior to conventional markers for the prediction of adverse maternal and newborn outcomes in patients with PreE. We report for the first-time the prediction and metabolomic basis of adverse maternal and newborn outcomes in patients with PreE.

Cancer cachexia as a predictor of adverse outcomes in patients with non-small cell lung cancer: A meta-analysis

IntroductionCancer cachexia is a complex problem characterized by weight loss due to skeletal muscle and adipose tissue reduction. The purpose of this meta-analysis is to examine the association between cancer cachexia and adverse outcomes in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). MethodsA comprehensive search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase databases from their inception to January 15, 2024. Retrospective or prospective studies that investigated the cancer cachexia as a predictor of overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), overall response rate (ORR), or disease control rate (DCR) in NSCLC patients were included in this analysis. ResultsSixteen studies, comprising 5,919 NSCLC patients, were identified. The pooled prevalence of cachexia in NSCLC patients was 39%, with individual studies reporting rates ranging from 19% to 63.8%. A meta-analysis using a random effects model showed that cachexia was associated with reduced OS (hazard ratio [HR] 1.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.54-2.21) and PFS (HR 1.49; 95% CI 1.27-1.73).Subgroup analysis indicated that cancer cachexia significantly predicted OS, regardless of study design, NSCLC subtypes, cancer stage, definitions of cachexia, or follow-up duration. However, there was no clear association between cancer cachexia and ORR or DCR. ConclusionsCancer cachexia emerges is a negative prognostic factor for OS and PFS in NSCLC patients. Assessing cancer cachexia can improve risk classification for survival outcomes in this patient population.

Malnutrition: muscle wasting, inflammation, RDW, and their relation with adverse outcomes.

The objective of the study was to explore red cell distribution width (RDW) as a surrogate marker of inflammation, alone and in conjunction with muscle wasting to predict malnutrition-related adverse outcomes. This was a single-center observational study including adult hospitalized patients. Demographic variables, malnutrition criteria, and RDW were captured within 24 hours of hospital admission. Correlation tests and regression models were performed between these variables (RDW and muscle wasting) and adverse outcomes (in-hospital mortality and unplanned transfer to critical care areas (CCA). Five hundred and forty-five patients were included in the final analysis. Muscle wasting showed an independent association with adverse outcomes in every regression model tested. RDW alone showed fair predictive performance for both outcomes' significance and the adjusted model with muscle wasting showed association only for unplanned transfer to CCA. RDW did not improve the prediction of adverse outcomes compared to muscle wasting assessed by physical examination and simple indexes for acute and chronic inflammation. Malnourished patients presented higher RDW values showing a possible metabolic profile (higher inflammation and lower muscle). It is still unknown whether nutrition support can influence RDW value over time as a response marker or if RDW can predict who may benefit the most from nutritional support.

Predictive value of the BDH2-MN2 nomogram model for prognosis at 3 months after receiving intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

The present study focused on developing a nomogram model to predict the 3-month survival of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) receiving intravenous thrombolysis with tissue plasminogen activator (tPA). A total of 709 patients were enrolled in the present study, including 496 patients in the training set and 213 patients in the validation set. All data were statistically analyzed using R software. We applied LASSO regression analysis to construct nomograms by screening statistically significant predictors from all variables.The model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). LASSO regression analysis was conducted for all variables, which revealed BNP, DNT, HCY, HDL, MHR, NHR and post-thrombolysis NIHSS as independent predictors of adverse outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis. Accordingly, these seven factors were incorporated in the nominated BDH2-MN2 nomogram. The resulting AUC-ROC values determined for the training and validation sets were 0.937 (95% CI: 0.822-0.954) and 0.898 (95% CI: 0.748-0.921), respectively. A robust BDH2-MN2 (BNP, DNT, HCY, HDL, MHR, NHR and post-thrombolysis NIHSS) nomogram model was successfully developed and validated. The developed nomogram enables prediction of adverse outcomes of individual AIS patients receiving intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase for 3 months.

Acute kidney injury in acute decompensated heart failure related cardiogenic shock: data from the Alt-Shock2 registry

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements None. Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the most common complications in patients with cardiogenic shock (CS), proving the strict relationship between heart and kidney (the so-called cardio-renal syndrome). AKI is a marker of shock severity, but also independently associated with worse outcomes. Purpose Many data are available on the prevalence of AKI in acute heart failure, but very few studies assessed the role of AKI in CS and they were mainly focused on acute myocardial infarction (AMI)-related CS. Aim of our study was to analyze the impact of AKI on acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF)-CS. Methods Between March 2020 and August 2022, we prospectively enrolled 375 CS patients from a Cardiac Intensive Care Units Network of 12 centers. Among these patients 121 (33.9% of the whole cohort) with ADHF-CS were included for the present analysis. AKI was defined according to KDIGO 2012 criteria as serum creatinine increase ≥ 0.3 mg/dl or 1.5 times compared to admission value, or urinary output &amp;lt; 0.5 ml/kg/h. Results Table 1 shows the baseline characteristics of the cohort. Patients with AKI were older (70 years old [55.5; 76] vs 61 [54; 69], p&amp;lt;0.05), had more comorbidities and a worse CS profile on admission. On multivariable analysis, SCAI stage D-E on admission was independently associated with a higher risk of AKI 24 hours after admission (OR 5.54 and p = 0.01). Treatment with mechanical circulatory support did not prevent AKI (OR 0.84 and p = 0.8). Notably, patients with a greater reduction in central venous pressure (CVP) 24 hours after admission had a lower risk of AKI (deltaCVP in AKI group 0 [-3;0] versus deltaCVP in no-AKI group -3 [-6;0], p = 0.025). Kaplan-Meier curves showed significantly worse survival in patients with AKI (Figure 1A). Cox regression analysis confirmed an association between AKI and increased risk of death (HR 2.14, CI 95% 1.16-3.96, p = 0.01). Notably, this association was even more pronounced in patients with SCAI stages A-B-C (HR 2.81, CI 95% 1.30-6.09, p = 0.01). Finally, in patients treated with renal replacement therapy (RRT) there was no association with lower survival at 180-days follow up (Figure 1B). Conclusions Our study confirms that AKI is a predictor of adverse outcomes in patients with ADHF-CS. Effective decongestion 24 hours after admission was associated with a lower risk of AKI. Considering that AKI had a negative impact even at lower SCAI stages, our findings underscore the importance of early identification of renal injury to promptly target decongestion with pharmacologic therapy and, ultimately, early use of RRT.

ASSESSMENT OF LEFT VENTRICULAR FUNCTION AFTER CORONARY ARTERY BYPASS GRAFTING

Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is a commonly performed surgical intervention for coronary artery disease (CAD), aiming to restore blood flow to the myocardium and improve cardiac function. Left ventricular (LV) systolic function is a crucial determinant of postoperative outcomes in CABG patients, yet the predictors of adverse outcomes remain incompletely understood. Objective: This study aimed to evaluate left ventricular function outcomes following CABG and identify predictors of mortality among CABG patients. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted at, Ch. Pervaiz Elahi Institute Of Cardiology (CPEIC), Multan, Pakistan, from December 2022 to December 2023. The study included 96 patients undergoing CABG surgery. Preoperative data collection encompassed demographic information, medical history, and baseline clinical characteristics. Left ventricular function was assessed using echocardiography preoperatively and postoperatively. Statistical analysis involved descriptive statistics, univariate analysis, and univariate regression. Results: The study cohort comprised 96 participants, with a mean age of 56.1 years (±12.2) and a male predominance (67.7%). Prevalent comorbidities included diabetes mellitus (78.1%) and hypertension (79.2%). LV systolic dysfunction (30.2%) and old ischemic heart disease (72.9%) were common preexisting conditions. Intraoperative variables included perioperative inotropes (5.2%) and emergent surgeries (3.1%). Postoperative complications included reoperation for bleeding (5.2%) and deterioration of LV ejection fraction (34.4%). The mortality rate was 5.2%. Postoperatively, the mean LVEF increased significantly from 32.00% (±5.219) to 37.00% (±9.801) in isolated CABG patients. Conclusion: This study confirms the significant improvement in LV systolic function following CABG and underscores the high benefit of CABG in patients with reduced EF. However, diabetes mellitus, advanced diastolic dysfunction, and the insertion of IABP were identified as significant predictors of adverse outcomes. Identifying patients with these risk predictors could provide complementary prognostic information and help optimise care, monitoring, and follow-up to improve their expected poor outcomes.

Association between the stress hyperglycemia ratio and 28-day all-cause mortality in critically ill patients with sepsis: a retrospective cohort study and predictive model establishment based on machine learning

BackgroundSepsis is a severe form of systemic inflammatory response syndrome that is caused by infection. Sepsis is characterized by a marked state of stress, which manifests as nonspecific physiological and metabolic changes in response to the disease. Previous studies have indicated that the stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) can serve as a reliable predictor of adverse outcomes in various cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. However, there is limited research on the relationship between the SHR and adverse outcomes in patients with infectious diseases, particularly in critically ill patients with sepsis. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the association between the SHR and adverse outcomes in critically ill patients with sepsis.MethodsClinical data from 2312 critically ill patients with sepsis were extracted from the MIMIC-IV (2.2) database. Based on the quartiles of the SHR, the study population was divided into four groups. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The relationship between the SHR and adverse outcomes was explored using restricted cubic splines, Cox proportional hazard regression, and Kaplan‒Meier curves. The predictive ability of the SHR was assessed using the Boruta algorithm, and a prediction model was established using machine learning algorithms.ResultsData from 2312 patients who were diagnosed with sepsis were analyzed. Restricted cubic splines demonstrated a "U-shaped" association between the SHR and survival rate, indicating that an increase in the SHR is related to an increased risk of adverse events. A higher SHR was significantly associated with an increased risk of 28-day mortality and in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis (HR > 1, P < 0.05) compared to a lower SHR. Boruta feature selection showed that SHR had a higher Z score, and the model built using the rsf algorithm showed the best performance (AUC = 0.8322).ConclusionThe SHR exhibited a U-shaped relationship with 28-day all-cause mortality and in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with sepsis. A high SHR is significantly correlated with an increased risk of adverse events, thus indicating that is a potential predictor of adverse outcomes in patients with sepsis.

Longitudinal Analysis of Predictive Factors for Stroke and Bleeding Events in Atrial Fibrillation Patients: Insights From a Tertiary Care Center Cohort.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) represents a prevalent cardiac arrhythmia associated with increased risks of stroke and bleeding events, necessitating comprehensive risk assessment and management strategies. This retrospective cohort research aimed to longitudinally analyze risk factors associated with stroke and bleeding incidents in patients diagnosed with AF, focusing on identifying predictive factors and their impact on patient outcomes. The research enrolled 480 AF patients from a tertiary care center over an 18-month period (2021-2022). Baseline demographic, clinical, and medication data were collected from electronic health records. Patients were monitored for occurrences of stroke and bleeding events during follow-up. Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier estimates were utilized to assess risk factor associations and cumulative event incidences, respectively. A cohort of 480 AF patients, with a meanage of 65.4 years, wasobserved over 18 months. Stroke patients tended to be older (72.1 years),and bleeders slightly younger (68.8 years). Cox models revealed higher stroke risk in >70-year-olds (hazard ratio (HR): 1.85, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.21-2.78, p < 0.001) and with prior stroke history (HR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.45-3.12, p < 0.001). Prior stroke linked to bleeding risk (HR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.26-2.81, p = 0.003). At six months, stroke incidence was 5.2%, bleeding 3.8%; at 18 months, 12.5% experienced strokes, 9.3% bleeding. These findings underscore age and prior stroke as vital predictors of adverse outcomes in AF patients. This research reaffirms age and prior stroke as pivotal risk factors for adverse outcomes in AF patients. The findings emphasize the necessity for tailored risk stratification and interventions to mitigate stroke and bleeding risks, thereby enhancing patient care and prognosis in AF management.

Identifying the Probable Etiology of Acute Undifferentiated Fever through Inflammatory Markers.

Acute undifferentiated fever (AUF) is defined as any febrile illness with a duration of ≤14 days without evidence of localized infection. Most outpatient services and a significant inpatient load in India are contributed by AUF. COVID-19 has recently added to the existing list of common etiologies of AUF. While the rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits, which are widely used for the detection of common etiologies of AUF, are unreliable, the rise of various inflammatory markers may help identify the probable etiology. This not only results in better diagnosis but also prepares the physician for close monitoring and pooling of resources. To identify the probable etiology of AUF through inflammatory markers. To understand the clinical and biochemical parameters as possible predictors of adverse outcomes in AUF. This was a prospective observational study carried out in the Department of Medicine in a tertiary care hospital. The total duration of the study was 1 year. A total of 400 AUF patients [both outpatient department (OPD) and inpatient department (IPD)] fulfilling the eligibility criteria were taken up for the study after consent. Various inflammatory markers, namely erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, ferritin, and procalcitonin levels along with basic blood and biochemical tests were measured in all qualifying patients at their first visit. The level of rise of all the measured inflammatory markers was analyzed for clues toward identifying the etiology. Also, the possible predictors of adverse outcomes, as defined in the study, were analyzed. Outcome variables are described as mean ± standard deviation. All statistical calculations were done using computer programs Microsoft Excel 2007 (Microsoft Corporation, New York, United States of America) and SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions; SPSS Inc., United States of America) version 21. The common etiologies in our study contributing to AUF were dengue (31.5%), COVID-19 (18.5%), enteric fever (12.7%), scrub typhus (9.0%), and malaria (6.0%). In 76 cases (19%), the fever was undiagnosed. Enteric fever had highly elevated CRP (>30 mg/L) and moderately elevated D-dimer, ferritin, and procalcitonin. Both nonsevere dengue and COVID-19 had highly elevated D-dimer (>750 ng/mL), but in nonsevere dengue, CRP, ferritin, and procalcitonin were only mildly elevated, whereas in COVID-19, CRP and ferritin were moderately elevated with mildly elevated procalcitonin. Scrub typhus had highly elevated CRP and ferritin [more than four times the upper limit of normal (ULN)], but D-dimer and procalcitonin were only mildly elevated. The mean serum procalcitonin level in enteric fever is significantly higher than the other etiologies of AUF. Our study was correctly able to identify 90.8% of nonsevere dengue, 87.8% of typhoid, 83.6% of COVID-19, and 91.4% of scrub typhus patients based on the inflammatory markers level. Obesity, diabetes (both types 1 and 2), hypertension, coronary artery disease (CAD), malignancy, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and chronic lung disease were significantly associated with adverse outcomes. A significant delay in visiting the hospital after the onset of fever was found in all etiologies of AUF, which had adverse outcomes. Our study is one of the few studies comparing the rise in the level of various inflammatory markers among the common etiologies of AUF. The novelty of the study is that it aids in identifying the probable etiology of AUF with good confidence through the levels of inflammatory markers. Also, our study highlights the high-risk factors associated with adverse outcomes in AUF.

Performance of several clinical scoring systems as predictors of adverse outcomes in acute exposure to toxic alcohols.

Toxic alcohols are chemicals with common metabolic characteristics resulting in severe morbidities and mortalities. The current study aimed to assess the efficacy of six scoring systems: The Poison Severity Score (PSS), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) in stratifying the patients exposed to toxic alcohol based on liability of organ failure, prolonged hospital stay, and need for an antidote. A seven-year retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted using medical records of adult patients admitted to a poison control center. About 42.6% were complicated with adverse outcomes. Methanol was the worst toxic alcohol and the only cause of blindness and death. About 27.1% of methanol-exposed patients suffered from acute kidney injury, 15.3% suffered from hemodynamic instability and neurological dysfunction, and 8.5% suffered from respiratory failure. An APACHE II score above 8 was the best predictor of unfavorable outcomes, exhibiting the highest area under the curve (0.972), followed by the SOFA score. The APACHE II score was praised for being the best discriminator of an expected prolonged hospital stay. Yet, the simple scores, including RAPS and REMS, showed good performance as unfavorable outcome predictors with no significant variations to PSS, APACHE II score, and SOFA scores. The current study concluded that though the APACHE II and SOFA scores were superior to others, the RAPS and REMS are good, simple, and effective alternatives, particularly when resources are restricted.

Prenatal prediction of adverse outcome using different charts and definitions of fetal growth restriction.

Antenatal growth assessment using ultrasound aims to identify small fetuses that are at higher risk of perinatal morbidity and mortality. This study explored whether the association between suboptimal fetal growth and adverse perinatal outcome varies with different definitions of fetal growth restriction (FGR) and different weight charts/standards. This was a retrospective cohort study of 17 261 singleton non-anomalous pregnancies at ≥ 24 + 0 weeks' gestation that underwent routine ultrasound at a tertiary referral hospital. Estimated fetal weight (EFW) and Doppler indices were converted into percentiles using a reference standard (INTERGROWTH-21st (IG-21)) and various reference charts (Hadlock, Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) and Swedish). Test characteristics were assessed using the consensus definition, Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) definition and Swedish criteria for FGR. Adverse perinatal outcome was defined as perinatal death, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit at term, 5-min Apgar score < 7 and therapeutic cooling for neonatal encephalopathy. The association between FGR according to each definition and adverse perinatal outcome was compared. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to test the strength of association between ultrasound parameters and adverse perinatal outcome. Ultrasound parameters were also tested for correlation. IG-21, Hadlock and FMF fetal size references classified as growth-restricted 1.5%, 3.6% and 4.6% of fetuses, respectively, using the consensus definition and 2.9%, 8.8% and 10.6% of fetuses, respectively, using the SMFM definition. The sensitivity of the definition/chart combinations for adverse perinatal outcome varied from 4.4% (consensus definition with IG-21 charts) to 13.2% (SMFM definition with FMF charts). Specificity varied from 89.4% (SMFM definition with FMF charts) to 98.6% (consensus definition with IG-21 charts). The consensus definition and Swedish criteria showed the highest specificity, positive predictive value and positive likelihood ratio in detecting adverse outcome, irrespective of the reference chart/standard used. Conversely, the SMFM definition had the highest sensitivity across all investigated growth charts. Low EFW, abnormal mean uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and abnormal cerebroplacental ratio were significantly associated with adverse perinatal outcome and there was a positive correlation between the covariates. Multivariate logistic regression showed that UtA-PI > 95th percentile and EFW < 5th percentile were the only parameters consistently associated with adverse outcome, irrespective of the definitions or fetal growth chart/standard used. The apparent prevalence of FGR varies according to the definition and fetal size reference chart/standard used. Irrespective of the method of classification, the sensitivity for the identification of adverse perinatal outcome remains low. EFW, UtA-PI and fetal Doppler parameters are significant predictors of adverse perinatal outcome. As these indices are correlated with one other, a prediction algorithm is advocated to overcome the limitations of using these parameters in isolation. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Machine-learning approaches for risk prediction in transcatheter aortic valve implantation: Systematic review and meta-analysis

ObjectivesWith the expanding integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) into the structural heart domain, numerous ML models have emerged for the prediction of adverse outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). We aim to identify, describe, and critically appraise ML prediction models for adverse outcomes after TAVI. Key objectives consisted in summarizing model performance, evaluating adherence to reporting guidelines, and transparency. MethodsWe searched PubMed, SCOPUS, and Embase through August 2023. We selected published machine learning models predicting TAVI outcomes. Two reviewers independently screened articles, extracted data, and assessed the study quality according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Outcomes included summary C-statistics and model risk of bias assessed with the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. C-statistics were pooled using a random-effects model. ResultsTwenty-one studies (118,153 patients) employing various ML algorithms (76 models) were included in the systematic review. Predictive ability of models varied: 11.8% inadequate (C-statistic <0.60), 26.3% adequate (C-statistic 0.60-0.70), 31.6% acceptable (C-statistic 0.70-0.80), and 30.3% demonstrated excellent (C-statistic >0.80) performance. Meta-analyses revealed excellent predictive performance for early mortality (C-statistic: 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.91), acceptable performance for 1-year mortality (C-statistic: 0.76; 95% CI, 0.67-0.84), and acceptable performance for predicting permanent pacemaker implantation (C-statistic: 0.75; 95% CI, 0.51-0.90). ConclusionsML models for TAVI outcomes exhibit adequate-to-excellent performance, suggesting potential clinical utility. We identified concerns in methodology and transparency, emphasizing the need for improved scientific reporting standards.

Dynamic LVEF Decline and Serum NT-proBNP and Uric Acid Levels before Heart Transplantation are Independent Predictors of Adverse Outcomes in Young Adult Patients with Dilated Cardiomyopathy.

The present study investigated the predictors of adverse outcomes in young adult patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) who underwent heart transplantation (HTx). Twenty-four young adult patients (aged 18-45 years) with DCM who underwent HTx in our hospital from January 2012 to December 2022 were included in this retrospective analysis. Pre- and post-HTx data were collected for echocardiography, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and uric acid (UA). Data collected at the time of DCM diagnosis were designated as baseline data. Post-HTx assessments were conducted at 1 week and 3, 6, 12, and 36 months post-HTx. The primary endpoint was defined as any adverse event, including left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 50% (n = 3), 50% increase in right or left ventricular diameter (n = 12), or death (n = 2). Patients were categorized into a non-adverse-event group (n = 12) or an adverse-event group (n = 12). Baseline NT-proBNP (p = 0.014) and UA (p = 0.012) were significantly higher in the adverse-event group than in the non-adverse-event group. Baseline NT-proBNP 7390 pg/mL (relative risk (RR) = 7.412, p = 0.046), UA 542 µmol/L (RR = 8.838, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.541-50.694, p = 0.014), and sustained reduction in LVEF ( 3%) over a 2-year pharmacological treatment prior to HTx (RR = 3.252, p = 0.046) were significantly associated with an increased risk of adverse events post-HTx. In young adult DCM patients post-HTx, heightened baseline levels of NT-proBNP and UA levels and a sustained reduction in LVEF over time prior to undergoing an HTx are significantly associated with an increased risk of adverse events post-HTx. Future studies are needed to observe whether individualized monitoring strategies could reduce the incidence of adverse events following HTx in these patients.

Predicting clinical outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Omicron wave using machine learning.

The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant continues to strain healthcare systems. Developing tools that facilitate the identification of patients at highest risk of adverse outcomes is a priority. The study objectives are to develop population-scale predictive models that: 1) identify predictors of adverse outcomes with Omicron surge SARS-CoV-2 infections, and 2) predict the impact of prioritized vaccination of high-risk groups for said outcome. We prepared a retrospective longitudinal observational study of a national cohort of 172,814 patients in the U.S. Veteran Health Administration who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from January 15 to August 15, 2022. We utilized sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and vaccination status, at time of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 to predict hospitalization, escalation of care (high-flow oxygen, mechanical ventilation, vasopressor use, dialysis, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation), and death within 30 days. Machine learning models demonstrated that advanced age, high comorbidity burden, lower body mass index, unvaccinated status, and oral anticoagulant use were the important predictors of hospitalization and escalation of care. Similar factors predicted death. However, anticoagulant use did not predict mortality risk. The all-cause death model showed the highest discrimination (Area Under the Curve (AUC) = 0.903, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.895, 0.911) followed by hospitalization (AUC = 0.822, CI: 0.818, 0.826), then escalation of care (AUC = 0.793, CI: 0.784, 0.805). Assuming a vaccine efficacy range of 70.8 to 78.7%, our simulations projected that targeted prevention in the highest risk group may have reduced 30-day hospitalization and death in more than 2 of 5 unvaccinated patients.

Prognostic performance of pulmonary effective arterial elastance in patients with heart failure

Objective: To explore the predictive value of pulmonary effective arterial elastance (Ea) in patients with heart failure (HF). Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study, which retrospectively included 284 patients with HF who underwent right heart catheterization at Heart Failure Center in Fuwai Hospital between September 2013 and February 2022. Data regarding baseline clinical characteristics, hemodynamic profiles, and prognosis were collected. Ea was calculated as mean pulmonary arterial pressure/stroke volume. Patients were divided into Ea<0.555 group and Ea≥0.555 group according to the median value of Ea (0.555 mmHg/ml, 1 mmHg=0.133 kPa). The primary outcome was the primary clinical event, set as the first occurrence of a series of composite events, including all-cause death, heart transplantation, left ventricular assist device implantation, and HF rehospitalization. Event-free survival was defined as the absence of primary clinical events. Spearman correlation analysis was used to calculate the correlation coefficient between Ea and parameters reflective of right heart function. The Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare the different groups for the estimation of outcomes with the log-rank test. We used Cox proportional-hazards regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for primary clinical event. Subgroup analysis was performed based on the age, gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction, presence of pulmonary hypertension, and serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) values. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) of Ea for predicting event-free survival in patients with HF. Results: The median age was 51 years, and 206 (72.5%) patients were male. Ea and pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) were significantly correlated (r=0.698, P<0.001). The correlation between Ea and pulmonary arterial elastance (PAC) were even more significant (r=-0.888, P<0.001). Compared with Ea<0.555 group, Ea≥0.555 group presented with higher serum NT-proBNP values (4 443 (1 792, 8 554) ng/L vs. 1 721 (480, 4 528)ng/L,P<0.001), higher PVR (3.4 (2.5, 4.7) Wood vs. 1.4 (0.9, 2.2) Wood, P<0.001), lower cardiac output (3.0 (2.3, 3.9) L/min vs. 4.3 (3.8, 4.9) L/min, P<0.001), and lower PAC (1.6 (1.3, 2.0) ml/mmHg vs. 4.0 (3.0, 6.0) ml/mmHg, P<0.001). The median follow-up time was 392 (166, 811) days. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve demonstrated a lower event-free survival rate in the Ea≥0.555 group compared to the Ea<0.555 group (Plog-rank<0.001). After multivariate adjustment, Ea (HR=1.734, P<0.001) remained significantly associated with the primary outcome. Subgroup analysis indicated that Ea was associated with the primary outcome across all subgroups. The AUC was 0.724 (P<0.001) for Ea to predict event-free survival calculated from ROC analysis. Conclusions: Ea is closely related to parameters reflective of right ventricular afterload. Increased Ea is an independent predictor of adverse outcomes in patients with HF.

Clinical and radiological risk factors for poor outcomes in patients with spontaneous muscle hematomas

PurposeSpontaneous muscle hematomas (SMH) are frequently seen in the Emergency Department (ED), particularly as a complication of anticoagulation treatments. To date, there are no standard guidelines for the management of this condition in the ED.This work aims to identify clinical-radiological parameters of SMH at risk of poor outcomes. MethodThis is a retrospective, observational cohort study conducted in an urban teaching hospital from 2016 to 2019. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify parameters independently associated with an adverse outcome defined as the need for treatment (blood products, TAE, surgery) or hospitalization. The parameters analyzed were hematoma size, anticoagulation therapy, age, and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). ROC analysis was performed to identify the best cut-off hematoma size value to predict poor outcomes. ResultsOur study enrolled 231 patients aged between 18 and 96 years, with a mean age of 67 years. In our population, 125 patients (54.1 % %) were on anticoagulant therapy.Multivariate analysis showed that an SMH diameter > 5.5 cm was independently associated with poor outcome ((odds Ratio [95 % CI] 4,009 [1,786–9,001], p 0.001). Among clinical parameters, only advanced age was proved to be an independent predictor of adverse outcomes (odds Ratio [95 % CI] 1,035 [1,003–1,069], p = 0.033) ConclusionsOur data suggest that an SMH diameter greater than 5.5 cm on a CT scan and advanced age are predictors of poor outcomes. Surprisingly, anticoagulant therapy seems to play a minor role in the outcome of SMHs.

Kidney outcomes in children with primary focal segmental glomerulosclerosis from a low- and middle- income country.

Limited data exists regarding the clinical course and outcomes of children with primary focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) from low- and middle- income countries. Children aged 1-18years with biopsy-proven primary FSGS followed from January 2010-June 2023 in a tertiary-care center were enrolled and their clinical profile, histological characteristics, kidney outcomes, and predictors of adverse outcomes were determined. Over 13years, 73 (54.8% boys) children with median (IQR) age at FSGS diagnosis 6.7 (3,10) years were recruited and followed up for median 4 (2.5,8) years. FSGS-not otherwise specified (NOS) was the most common histological subtype, in 64 (87.6%) children, followed by collapsing variant in 5 (6.8%) children. At last follow-up, 43 (58.9%), 2 (2.7%) and 28 (38.3%) children were in complete remission (CR), partial remission (PR), and no remission (NR) respectively. Calcineurin inhibitors led to CR or PR in 39 (62%) children. Overall, 21 (28.7%) children progressed to chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 2-5 (19 from NR vs. 2 from PR group; p = 0.03); with 41% of those NR at 12months progressing to CKD 4-5 by last follow-up. On multivariable analysis, collapsing variant [adjusted HR 2.5 (95%CI 1.5, 4.17), p = 0.001] and segmental sclerosis > 25% [aHR 9.9 (95%CI 2.2, 45.2), p = 0.003] predicted kidney disease progression. In children with FSGS, response to immunosuppression predicts kidney survival as evidenced by nil to lower progression to CKD 2-5 by median follow-up of 4 (2.5,8) years in children with CR and PR, comparedto those with no remission at 12months from diagnosis. Segmental sclerosis > 25% and collapsing variant predicted progression to advanced CKD.

Coronary Intravascular Lithotripsy Effectiveness and Safety in a Real-World Cohort.

Background: Coronary artery calcification is a predictor of adverse outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Intravascular lithotripsy (IVL) is a promising tool for the treatment of calcified lesions. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness and safety of IVL. Methods: A single-center observational study of PCI procedure, with assessment of the outcomes of patients undergoing PCI using IVL, was performed. Angiographic procedural success was used as the primary effectiveness endpoint. The primary safety endpoint was defined as a composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction and target vessel revascularization within 30 days. Results: A total of 111 patients were included. Indications for PCI spanned the spectrum of chronic (53.2%) and acute coronary syndromes (43%). Lesion preparation before IVL was performed with non-compliant (42%), cutting or OPN (14.4%) balloons and with atherectomy techniques in 11% of procedures. Intravascular imaging was used in 21.6% of procedures. The primary effectiveness endpoint was achieved in 100% and the primary safety endpoint in 3.6% of procedures. Peri-procedural complications were minimal and successfully resolved. Conclusions: IVL was an effective and safe technique for the treatment of calcified coronary lesions. These findings contribute to the growing body of evidence supporting the use of IVL in the management of these challenging scenarios.

Adjusting Atrial Size Parameters for Body Surface Area: Does it Affect the Association With Pulmonary Embolism-related Adverse Events?

Small left atrial (LA) volume was recently reported to be one of the best predictors of acute pulmonary embolism (PE)-related adverse events (AE). There is currently no data available regarding the impact that body surface area (BSA)-indexing of atrial measurements has on the association with PE-related adverse events. Our aim is to assess the impact of indexing atrial measurements to BSA on the association between computed tomography (CT) atrial measurements and AE. Retrospective study (IRB: 2015P000425). A database of hospitalized patients with acute PE diagnosed on CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA) between May 2007 and December 2014 was reviewed. Right and left atrial volume, largest axial area, and axial diameters were measured. Patients undergo both echocardiographies (from which the BSA was extracted) and CTPAs within 48 hours of the procedure. The patient's body weight was measured during each admission. LA measurements were correlated to AE (defined as the need for advanced therapy or PE-related mortality at 30 days) before and after indexing for BSA. The area under the ROC curve was calculated to determine the predictive value of the atrial measurements in predicting AE. The study included 490 acute PE patients; 62 (12.7%) had AE. There was a significant association of reduced BSA-indexed and non-indexed LA volume (both <0.001), area (<0.001 and 0.001, respectively), and short-axis diameters (both <0.001), and their respective RA/LA ratios (all <0.001) with AE. The AUC values were similar for BSA-indexed and non-indexed LA volume, diameters, and area with LA volume measurements being the best predictor of adverse outcomes (BSA-indexed AUC=0.68 and non-indexed AUC=0.66), followed by non-indexed LA short-axis diameter (indexed AUC=0.65, non-indexed AUC=0.64), and LA area (indexed AUC=0.64, non-indexed AUC=0.63). Adjusting for BSA does not substantially affect the predictive ability of atrial measurements on 30-day PE-related adverse events, and therefore, this adjustment is not necessary in clinical practice. While LA volume is the better predictor of AE, LA short-axis diameter has a similar predictive value and is more practical to perform clinically.

Ivabradine in Septic Shock: A Narrative Review.

In patients with septic shock, compensatory tachycardia initially serves to maintain adequate cardiac output and tissue oxygenation but may persist despite appropriate fluid and vasopressor resuscitation. This sustained elevation in heart rate and altered heart rate variability, indicative of autonomic dysfunction, is a well-established independent predictor of adverse outcomes in critical illness. Elevated heart rate exacerbates myocardial oxygen demand, reduces ventricular filling time, compromises coronary perfusion during diastole, and impairs the isovolumetric relaxation phase of the cardiac cycle, contributing to ventricular-arterial decoupling. This also leads to increased ventricular and atrial filling pressures, with a heightened risk of arrhythmias. Ivabradine, a highly selective inhibitor of the sinoatrial node's pacemaker current (If or "funny" current), mitigates heart rate by modulating diastolic depolarization slope without affecting contractility. By exerting a selective chronotropic effect devoid of negative inotropic properties, ivabradine shows potential for improving hemodynamics in septic shock patients with cardiac dysfunction. This review evaluates the plausible mechanisms and existing evidence regarding the utility of ivabradine in managing patients with septic shock.